| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 04-19-2009 |
We've kind of beaten the "who's No. 2?" thing to death -- and we'll certainly continue drubbing it into complete submission this spring, just not today. Instead, let's look further into who could be available at No. 27, 33 and 51, the M's extra first-round pick, sandwich pick and second rounder.
At the beginning of the spring Keith Law ranked the top 32 (not a random number, that's many first-round selections there are) and the No. 27 prospect was RHP Matt Hobgood from Norco (Calif.) HS.
While things have changed somewhat, Hobgood may very well be there when the M's come around at 27, but there are others, too. We've already talked a little about SS Jiovanni Mier and C Austin Maddox right here, and RHP Tanner Scheppers here, so we'll move on to a few others.
Jake Marisnick, OF - Poly (Riverside, Calif.) HS
Marisnick is a right-handed hitting right fielder with a plus arm and good, solid swing mechanics. He's not hitting a lot of home runs, or for a ton of power right now in high school - one long ball, five doubles and a triple - but his physical skills, including above-average speed and contact abilities (13 walks, 8 strikeouts in 19 games) make him a potential top 50 pick. I'd be surprised if Marisnick is taken off the board before round two, but at 51, it's a nice get for Seattle.
Bobby Borchering, 1B/3B - Bishop Verot (Fort Myers, Fla.) HS
Law scouted Borchering earlier this month and believes, from what he saw specifically that day, that Borchering is likely to both end up as a first baseman - he calls it "even money" - and as a first or sandwich-round pick.
He's a switch hitter but most scouts believe he has better raw power from the left side. One scout told me that "he's just not ever going to be a good defender," when asked about his abilities as a future third baseman.
But he may very well have enough power to play first regularly, provided he makes a few critical adjustments. Seattle is probably better off going in another direction at 27, since the talent differential between prospects No. 20 and 30 is unlikely to show much separation and the Mariners have a couple of current prospects that profile at first base - Mike Carp, Jeff Clement, Dennis Raben, and perhaps even Jharmidy De Jesus.
Borchering at 33 is a better idea, but if he slips to 51, yes please.
Tommy Joseph, C - Horizon (Ariz.) HS
Joseph is a very physical player, both defensively, where he displays a strong arm, but below-average athleticism, despite what Law described as "good energy."
His raw power is very intriguing, but there's zero defensive value if he can't catch, and if he can stick behind the plate, he's merely adequate at best. I'd make bad faces at the idea of Joseph at 27 or 33, but at 51, not so much. And he could get that far if clubs see enough in Geno Escalante, Maddox, and Andrew Susac ahead of Joseph.
James Paxton, LHP - Kentucky
Paxton has burst onto the scene with a spike in velocity this spring - he was 88-92 two summers ago with the Corvalis Knights in summer league play after converting to a starting role - but he's been low-90s and up to 95 this spring.
He's more than just a sinker-slider pitcher this year, though he does feature the same two-pitch arsenal. He's using a four-seamer, too, but without a change-up of some sort, he may have problems versus right-handers long term, and there's always a question about low-3/4 arm slot guys when it comes to developing a legit change.
Paxton might be a decent selection at 33, won't be around at 51, but 27 may be a bit too high. I'd guess he comes off the board between 30 and 50.
Alex Wilson, RHP - Texas A&M
If you look at Wilson's numbers, you might wonder why he's not a surefire first-round guy. Well, his stuff is good, but he there are two issues: He's inconsistent with even his fastball command, despite walking just 18 batters in 57 innings, and the fact that he is a TJ surgery recipient.
Wilson has touched 96-97 mph post-surgery, but typically pitches at 91-93 with solid control, but average command within the zone. His fastball has shown decent tail at times, and good life.
His slider is 79-83 mph and his change, thrown at 84-86 mph in a start witnessed by an AL West club's area scout, is an improving pitch that he needs to throw more often.
Wilson is an ideal talent to snag at 51, if he lasts that long.
m\'s-draft-candidates-v.-1.0
Comments
The following 51 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Blowgun7 on 04-19-2009 21:29:51 Jason, are there going to be any good college bats available in that 27-35 range? |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-19-2009 22:36:47 There might be some upside guys, but as usual, with big risk. Jared Mitchell, at LSU for one, but he's struggled in SEC play (278/427/527) compared to his overall numbers. Maybe C Tony Sanchez at BC, CF Tim Wheeler at Sac State... but 27-33 is too high for them IMO. The value is in prep kids. |
| 3. By: shemberry on 04-19-2009 22:54:07 Jason, Where do you see Kentrail Davis going in this draft? |
| 4. By: rocketdawg31 on 04-19-2009 23:05:34 Jason, considering the high value a team often gets out of a player's skill-set like LeVon Washington's- speed, minimal power, some reasonable defense and baserunning ability- how come he isn't valued higher? I see what the Halos have gotten out of Chone Figgins and it makes me say "I want one, too!". Is Washington a good value at #33? Or is there a chance to snag him at #51? |
| 5. By: rocketdawg31 on 04-19-2009 23:11:41 Also, my apologies for double posting (I really MUST get into the habit of making sure I have no questions in my head before I hit "submit comment"), but when might the next Live Blog be? I've had to ruefully miss out on the last two or three due to work commitments, but I'm on somewhat of a vacation for three weeks now... |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-19-2009 23:42:41 shemberry, I don't see how he's a first rounder like BA thinks. He's not a center fielder long term, has average pop, strikes out a lot... I think he's a second rounder or so, even in this weak class. He'd be better off staying another year, probably. He's a DE soph. so he'd still have leverage in 2010. dawg, Washington hasn't gotten rave reviews, he's more a bunch of tools slapped together right now. For every one Chone Figgins there are 10 Kenny Kellys... remember that. Wash could be there at 51, and might be a good value there. Tough to say right now, six weeks to go. And the next LiveBlog/Chat is going to be this week. Not sure exactly which day, I'll post that the night before, though. Has to be during the day for me, because I'm whipped and don't like to take time away from the future Mrs. and the junior to do chats. No worries on the 2x post. |
| 7. By: Blowgun7 on 04-20-2009 00:24:06 Give me Matzek, Maddox, Scheppers, and Borchering and I'll do back flips on draft day |
| 8. By: safecochatter on 04-20-2009 00:46:32 4 solid starts against ranked teams,would seem to give alex white a little nuge up the top 10 ladder. the complete game one hitter against #7 miami on friday probably didn't hurt either. where does mr white sit these days in the top 10? |
| 9. By: slick on 04-20-2009 04:53:12 I like these guys Boxberger 9.93k's per nine 2.60 ERA Dyson 95mph and up and a curve Goodwin High schooler from NC good defense and SB potential Givens High Schooler booth ways player kind of like Casey Kelly from 2008 draft Younginer with Wheeler and Turner going somewhere between 10-25 this guy might still be around. Raley Draft eligble soph 9.98K's per nine for a good program. some possible sleeper third rounders Bellamy closer for Miami kind of similar to brad ziegler Chris Dominquez Power hitting 3rd/1st/DH type lot of K'S lots of power |
| 10. By: Real Baseball Intelligence on 04-20-2009 11:18:46 [um, no spam thanks!]-PP |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-20-2009 12:25:58 Boxberger lacks a good out pitch, and might end up in the bullpen. At 51, yes. Not earlier. Dyson is very inconsistent. Another at 51. Not sooner. Goodwin I like, haven't talked to a lot of guys that have seen him yet, though. Good athlete, first-round talent. Won't make it to 27. Givens won't hit, he's an arm, and probably a reliever due to a low arm slot. It's really low - I was fooled by the camera angle, thinking it was 3/4, but it's darn near sidearm. Not good. Younginer's delivery keeps getting shredded by scouts. Not sure about him yet. Bellamy isn't a name either myself or Law has had come up. We'll start asking a bit - he has good numbers, but who knows why that is... Dominguez is a fourth-year junior, swings and misses a lot, can't play third long term. In a weak draft, maybe he's a third rounder, but that's still probably an overdraft. He may fool some club because he "looks the part," as Law put it. |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-20-2009 12:30:02 For the record, if Goodwin lasted to 27, I find it hard to believe he wouldn't be the best player available there, as would Luke Bailey or Max Stassi, or Zack Wheeler or Jacob Turner most likely. I REALLY like Wheeler. A lot. Love the breaking ball and FB life. |
| 13. By: PositivePaul on 04-20-2009 12:37:48 Now that you've had a chance to really follow some guys and get info from other people, how do you feel about the M's signing Fields as opposed to saving the slot for someone who might be available with the pick the M's would've gotten in compensation for not signing Fields? |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-20-2009 12:41:39 I'd have to think if Fields was in this year's draft as a junior, he'd easily be the first reliever taken and would certainly be the top available talent at 27, and probably at 21, too. I think signing him was a good move. Drafting him, no... but Jack didn't have that choice. |
| 15. By: Slack on 04-20-2009 16:22:27 Jason, What can you tell us about Matt Hobgood? |
| 16. By: stickball on 04-20-2009 16:43:36 Jason, How about Brooks Raley for the #33 pick? He looks like he could be a draft eligible sophomore. |
| 17. By: slick on 04-20-2009 17:30:37 Jason Chris Jenkins and Mathew Grahm prep arms have fell off the radar is this due to lack of secondary pitches or college commitements Stanford and North Carolina. |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-20-2009 17:56:34 Jenkins is a guy Law saw recently and wrote him up on the blog. Likes him, thinks he's an early first-day guy, but probably not a first-rounder. Graham didn't fall off the radar, he just didn't pop like he could have, stuff wise. Stick, He IS a DE sophomore, probably more so as a pitcher, but he can hit some, too. Not a lot of power, though. He, like most oher DE sophomores, are better off going back for another year. DE Sophomores don't have a good track record for some reason. My bad, Law wrote up Chad Jenkins at KSU. Chris isn't a top 50 guy. Maybe not top 100. |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-20-2009 22:29:41 Slack, Hobgood is a low-90s FB, CB kid that both Law and I have ranked right around 25. I haven't seen him myself, but everything I hear is pretty good. He's not an absolute first rounder, but it's tough to find a scout who doesn't like him enough to project him before the middle of the sandwich round at worst. |
| 20. By: CrockDaddy on 04-20-2009 22:56:25 Liddi has a couple more hits tonight through 5. Jason, could his hot start be an indication of a breakout year, or are they simply early numbers? |
| 21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-20-2009 23:39:52 I think it's too early to tell, cd, but Liddi is better than his numbers suggested last year. I'm just not very high on him, unfortunately. He'll have to hit for a lot more power than I see in his swing and physical skills to be a regular, because he can't play a middle infield spot or catch, obviously. and I'm not convinced he's a third baseman, either, but he's not awful there. I do think his numbers will be significantly better, but half of that is the league/environment. |
| 22. By: bigcat on 04-21-2009 00:19:36 Jason what do you think of 3B Tommy Mendonca from Fresno State. Was awsome in the CWS last year and already has 16HR and his glove at the corner is the best in college baseball where could you see him on a draft board? And also is Fisters move to Tacoma short term or is he there cuz they think he belongs? Thanks |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-21-2009 01:12:02 He does belong... but it could be short term. The M's traded Burke back to SD tonight, though, so there may be a position player coming up... Navarro, maybe. |
| 24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-21-2009 01:17:38 Mendoca is certainly a well above-average defender at third, but he's got issues with plate coverage and poor swing mechanics, not to mention issues making consistent contact. He's probably not a top 100 guy, but also probably isn't too far beyond that, either. I know one west coast club that likes him in round two somewhere mid-to-late, but most don't... though it only takes one. Law wrote him up and talked specifics regarding his shortcomings on April 14 on the Draft Blog here. |
| 25. By: slick on 04-21-2009 02:20:45 Jason Any reason why Alex Wilson was pitching out of A&M's bullpen this weekend? |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-21-2009 02:30:02 I haven't heard anything yet. I thought maybe due to rain delay or something, but that wasn't the case. They may have simply wanted to keep him to a smaller workload this week. You'll see teams do little things like that to give a guy a little extra rest here and there -- ASU has been occasionally using Spence on Fridays and Leake on Saturdays, which gives both guys an extra day's rest in successive weeks. Week 1: Leake on Friday, Spence on Saturday. Week 2: Spence on Friday, Leake on Saturday, Leake gets an extra day. Week 3: Leake on Friday, Spence on Saturday, Spence gets an extra day. It also gives them experience pitching on five days rest, too, since that middle week has them going Saturday-Friday, a typical pro pitcher's schedule. But as far as Wilson is concerned, he's been their Saturday guy, so we'll see Saturday, I guess. Unless I can track down their coach and find out. |
| 27. By: SethGrandpa on 04-21-2009 02:55:47 Kind of random, but figuring he's thrown 4 no-no's in a row, I was wonder what kind of prospect Patrick Schuster (Mitchell High-FL) is? I've heard he's planning on going to Florida, but might consider just heading for the draft. Is he just the case of a bad league? What's the situation? |
| 28. By: acqb1424 on 04-21-2009 08:26:42 Jason, I know we've mentioned Scheppers in the past, so I thought he might get mentioned in this article, but what are the chances that he's still sitting there at 27? Is there any chance that Grant Green slides that far? |
| 29. By: Kryten on 04-21-2009 10:28:59 Jason, Been following your work for years now, but I just signed up here so I could post. I was going to ask about Patrick Schuster, but I see Seth beat me to it. So never mind. But there are at least two of us now awaiting your opinion on him, fwiw... |
| 30. By: CrockDaddy on 04-21-2009 11:42:49 the way green's been hitting lately, i would assume he has reestablished himself as a potentially m's pick at 2, no chance for 27 |
| 31. By: CrockDaddy on 04-21-2009 11:47:54 my apologies for the grammar |
| 32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-21-2009 12:19:02 Patrick Schuster is dominating because of a low arm angle. He tops out at 90, nothing special, and that league is not exactly tip-top. He's a first-day talent, for sure, but with that slot is a bullpen guy, even if he adds a few more mphs. Besides, I hate his delivery. ugh. |
| 33. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-21-2009 12:20:02 acqb, Like I mentioned up top of the post, since we'd talked about Schepper at 27 or 33 already, there was no need to mention him again. He's very interesting for teams like Seattle with multiple picks in the top 50. Very. |
| 34. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-21-2009 22:28:20 Re: Green Still no power. Two homers all year. |
| 35. By: DAMellen on 04-21-2009 22:43:17 Jason What do you think of Scooter Gennett? Where is he likely to fall? |
| 36. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-21-2009 22:47:53 I haven't heard a ton about Gennett this spring, which doesn't bode well for him. I was asking about him a lot early on, trying to get a feel for which guys clubs were watching closely and I got a lot of "I'm not on him," type reponses. I'd say third roundish. |
| 37. By: CrockDaddy on 04-22-2009 01:43:40 Jason, I have an interesting question for you: in realistic terms, if you were drafting for the m's, who would be your first three picks? |
| 38. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-22-2009 02:01:16 Without knowing who else was taken ahead of them, I can't realistically answer that question. But I will have Mock Draft 1.0 coming next weekend, and I'll go through the first 100 picks. |
| 39. By: CrockDaddy on 04-22-2009 08:06:29 ok, sounds good. I just wanted to get a feel for who your ideal 3 would be |
| 40. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-22-2009 08:29:19 Well, if I got to pick three after Strasburg -- Miller, Matzek, Ackley. Love that the latter two fell to 27 and 33! |
| 41. By: acqb1424 on 04-22-2009 10:04:31 Jason, what do you think of Eric Decker from Minnesota? I know he's going to play football next year, but would he be someone worth taking a flier on later in the draft (Not with an early pick) and hoping that he's done with football after next year? |
| 42. By: CrockDaddy on 04-22-2009 12:01:28 haha, yeah that was why i felt compelled to include the "realistic" qualifier, but i would be alright with that draft! |
| 43. By: CrockDaddy on 04-22-2009 12:02:06 haha, yeah that was why i felt compelled to include the "realistic" qualifier, but i would be alright with that draft! |
| 44. By: CrockDaddy on 04-22-2009 12:03:11 by the way i think i may have opted for strasburg's three genetic clones, each with a different but comparable breaking pitch (oh and one's left handed) |
| 45. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-22-2009 12:38:23 re: Decker, I've actually seen Decker, and while he looks the part and you can dream on some of those physical tools, I see a football player. I wouldn't touch him any earlier than the 10-12th round. Normally I'd say 15-18th, but this draft sucks. |
| 46. By: acqb1424 on 04-22-2009 13:33:22 Do you know what really sucks? Is that the one year that both Seattle teams have high draft picks in their respective drafts, the drafts are considered weak and void of big time impact talent. Thankfully the M's are playing well or I'd be extrememly depressed. Here's to Crabtree for the Hawks and the baseball gods somehow shining upon Seattle and delivering Stras to us! |
| 47. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-22-2009 13:38:24 Crabtree is NOT Larry Fitzgerald or Jerry Rice... he's TJ Houshmanzadeh, and the Hawks already have one of those. No thanks. The NFL Draft is always like this, with the exception that there is no clear cut No. 1. The baseball draft is going to suck in 2010, too. |
| 48. By: acqb1424 on 04-22-2009 13:41:51 I'm not totally sold on Crabtree and I agree with your comparison, but I don't want them to take Sanchez at four and don't know how much of an impact either of the tackles would make. If Curry were there I'd like that, but then they are tying up a bunch of money at LB again and they seemed to want to not do that with the Julian Peterson trade. Who would you take Jason? |
| 49. By: Rudolf on 04-22-2009 17:34:42 So if we have no rotation in 2010 beyond Felix, and we are conceivably the worst team in baseball, would you be excited for a top pick in the 2011 draft, Jason? How about a top three pick in 2011? |
| 50. By: Jay Yencich on 04-22-2009 21:45:35 Been meaning to ask, where do you think Rex Brothers is going to fall? Do you think he might be around for one of our picks? |
| 51. By: Kryten on 04-24-2009 10:47:32 Burke sure is taking his time reporting to the Padres... |
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