| By Chris Crawford |  | By 06-08-2010 |
Before we get to the review -- we have the scouting reports of the first four picks today by the M's. Stephen Pryor's report is free for everyone, and subscribers can view the rest. If you'd like to subscribe you can do that by clicking here
Taijuan Walker
Stephen Pryor
Marcus Littlewood
Ryne Stanek
James Paxton
The Seattle Mariners entered the 2010 Draft without a first-round pick thanks to the signing of Chone Figgins away from division-rival Los Angeles, but took advantage of the quirky approaches to this year's class by more than half the league that left talent there for the Mariners to steal.
The M's and scouting director Tom McNamara added high upside arms, some probability in an experienced frontline college starter and a potential every day infielder with solid offensive potential and plus defensive skills.
In doing so, Seattle will grade out as one of the better drafts in the league this year, especially relative to the lack of picks in comparison to the Angels, Toronto and Boston.
Seattle owned Detroit and Atlanta in the battle between clubs without a first-round pick. Two things to watch between now and mid-August is if the they get these guys signed. If they sign their first five picks, they'll have completely rebuilt the farm system in less than two calendar years.
Really.
-- Jason A. Churchill
Let's take a look at the "best of" in the M's draft class of 2010.
Best Value -- James Paxton, LHP -- Round 4, No. 132
Quickest Pitcher to Big Leagues -- Paxton
Quickest Hitter to Big Leagues -- Mickey Wiswall, 1B -- Round 7, No. 222
Best Player -- Paxton
Best Power -- Wiswall
Best On-base skills -- Robert Anston, CF -- Round 26, No. 792
Best Fastball -- Stephen Prior, RHP -- Round 5, No. 162
Best Breaking Ball -- Paxton, Slider
Best Control/Command -- William Kesler, RHP -- Round 18, No. 552
Fastest Baserunner -- Frankie Christan, CF -- Round 19, No. 582
Best Defensive Infielder -- Littlewood
Best Defensive Outfielder -- Christian
Toughest Sign -- Littlewood, Jordan Shipers, LHP -- Round 16, No. 492
Most Upside -- Littlewood, Taijuan Walker, RHP -- Round 1, No. 43
OVERALL GRADE : A
m\'s-draft-review
Comments
The following 50 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: DAMellen on 06-08-2010 21:31:58 Is there any reason to worry that Paxton's lost anything the way that Hochevar and Fields and Crow did after they missed some time? |
| 2. By: bobbysee1 on 06-08-2010 21:40:15 How come when I click on the selected players I get no results? |
| 3. By: bobbysee1 on 06-08-2010 21:43:30 Just got Paxton. Things are looking up. |
| 4. By: masonb on 06-08-2010 22:29:22 How tough a sign is Littlewood? Are they going to have to go significantly over slot to get him? From what I've read some people saw him as an overdraft at 67. What kind of money is Shipers looking for? 2nd round money? |
| 5. By: masonb on 06-08-2010 22:38:59 nevermind on Littlewood. Just saw the scouting report you wrote Jason, but I am still wondering what it would take to get Shipers |
| 6. By: Rudolf on 06-08-2010 22:48:08 Jason, how would you compare Shippers and Stanek to last year's draft pick, Scott Griggs, talent and signability-wise? |
| 7. By: Chris Crawford on 06-08-2010 23:17:07 Not Jason, though I play him on TV. Stanek>Griggs Shippers>Griggs Shippers = less likely to sign than Griggs. |
| 8. By: snowmanmid on 06-08-2010 23:29:04 Fantastic coverage gents. A great way to procrastinate studying. Would it be prudent for Jack and the crew to give in a little more than usual to Boras to get Paxton in ASAP? It would seem that the monetary difference is small compared to the potential developmental and organizational benefits that the M's could benefit from. How do you quantify the value of time spent unsigned versus time spend working? |
| 9. By: Rudolf on 06-08-2010 23:30:10 Thanks, Chris. Great answer. Do you think it is strictly a $$ thing with Shippers, or is the guy dying to go to college? |
| 10. By: baseballman on 06-08-2010 23:33:49 Im interested to see how these guys (once signed) fit into our top 30. JAC, you got anything planned within the next month or so once these guys start gettin signed? maybe after the trade deadline? loved the comment about completely rebuilding the farm. thanks for all the great coverage JAC and Chris. I havent gotten anything done the past couple of days! |
| 11. By: Chris Crawford on 06-08-2010 23:57:22 8. I suppose it depends on your definition of giving in. They're obviously going to have to pay him more than slot, it's just a question as to whether they're going to pay him the equivalent of a high-draft pick. In my opinion, leverage sits with the M's, there is little for Paxton to gain in sitting out another year. Glad everyone enjoyed the coverage, I want to give a special thanks to Joe Kaiser for his help over the last two days with the information. He was a phenomenal help -- and if you like the NBA draft -- www.nbadraftinsider.com is the place to go. Since I'm pimping that, I'll pimp my twitter page again...www.twitter.com/chriscrawfordPI. I'm addicted to twitter some five years after it came to be, weird. |
| 12. By: rjfrik on 06-09-2010 00:07:01 So anyone beside Paxton crack our top ten? I think Stanek might. Anyone else? |
| 13. By: Slurve on 06-09-2010 00:56:14 I would want to see how rusty Paxton is at the moment before putting him into the top 10. |
| 14. By: Chris Crawford on 06-09-2010 01:01:03 Reports on Paxton in the independent have been a little mixed, but he did strikeout over a batter an inning there. There will probably be rust -- but I would be surprised if that rust carried over for too long. |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-09-2010 01:06:56 The mid-season prospect rankings are coming out -- FREE for all subscribers -- in a few weeks, and I can guarantee that some of the draftees WOULD BE in the Top 20, though since there's little chance any of them will be signed, they won't make the rankings. I will come up with a "What-if Top 20," in early July, however. |
| 16. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 06-09-2010 01:43:42 Assuming most of the top guys sign it's pretty clear the Mariners have built a pipline of prospects that should start producing quality players shortly. Having said that, with the position the big league club is in, wouldn't it behoove the team to start finding out exactly what value marginal guys like Tui, Halman, Mangini and Carp have? And furthermore is it worth starting the clock on any of the top guys to speed there transition from prospect to contributing major league player(Ackley being one)? Of course having a place for these guys to play will involve trading a Lopez, releasing a Kotchman and making a Bradley a part time player. Do you think the Mariners are going to make some or any of these moves? Or is it more likely that they just play out the string? As I see it the team is looking at 90 losses either way so watching some new players at least has the appeal of being new to behold. |
| 17. By: baseballman on 06-09-2010 02:02:02 lookin forward to the "what-if top 20" JAC. im wonderin what Jack Z's plan is with the big league players right now. he has to be leaning towards trading lee, right? and if so, he will most likely ask for MLB ready players in return. he has done a great job in restackin the farm so far. wonderin what types of players he will ask for. |
| 18. By: 200tang on 06-09-2010 02:24:13 I would guess that trading Lee has more to do with if he thinks the players he's getting back are more valuable than 2 picks in next year's draft, because next year is pretty stacked. |
| 19. By: slick on 06-09-2010 03:40:31 The word is the Yankees will probably sign Lee next year and maybe Crawford. If Crawford's Elisa ratings are better than Lee's then we get comp and second round. Very much like what the Brewers got with Sabathia. I don't think Jack takes that risk. Also if Jack wants young MLB talent maybe it would be possible to get a third team involved and target some younger under controll guys going into their arbitration years. Take the others teams prospects cherry pick an A baller for the farm and send the rest over or mix and match seems plausable. Also with Kotchman Lee Snell Griffey and maybe Aardsma coming off the books and a protected 1st next year it would make some sense if we considered the likes of Pena or maybe Cantu. |
| 20. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 06-09-2010 05:43:50 Pena or Cantu? I'd rather have Victor Martinez on a three year deal. If the Mariners end up trading Lee to Tampa Bay (unlikely I know) what would you guys want besides Brignac? Or would you want something altogether different? |
| 21. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 06-09-2010 06:08:27 slick... Cantu is largely a product of his environment and would become a 15 HR guy in Safeco with most of those hit on the road. No thanks. Pena will be a 33 years old free agent, a Scott Boras client, and he's going to want a long term deal because of being moved so much. Probably 6-8 years, but will take 5 due to a collapsing market. He'll ask $20MM due to the stupid Howard contract, but nobody will pay because of age and contract years. Figure he's going to get $14MM x 5 years. I'll pass on paying a 33-38 year old power hitter $70MM over a 5 year window (think Griffey with less contact skills and greater inconsistencies at the plate, while playing a low value defensive position). He's Hank Blalock with more walks and a marginally better defensive ability. Seriously. |
| 22. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 06-09-2010 06:34:20 All things being equal, I don't think Lee has any interest in playing in New York. He's a small town guy and I think he'd rather remain with a competitor who doesn't play in a metropolis. If he's not in Seattle, I'm guessing Minnesota, Detroit, Texas, D.C., St. Louis, or maybe Milwaukee. Also, the return for Lee has been pretty underwhelming in all the trades he's been in. He was a throw in with the Colon trade that brought him to Cleveland. The trade to Philly was a joke and not including the bonus bat he was sent with (Ben Francisco), and the Mariners basically threw away two plus relievers and a "Rajai Davis type" CF with some upside. I don't think a deal is sitting out there for $20MM a year for Lee, due to his age. The Yankees have a more debt with the new park and they don't have the budget for $20MM a year. Hard to believe the Yankees ever not "having" the money, but billion dollar stadiums will do that to even the most stacked franchise in the world. Guys that are going to make more next year include, Hughes, Chamberlain, Rivera, Posada, Granderson, Cano, Jeter, Cervelli, etc. Plus they'll be adding Crawford or Werth to the outfield at an extra $15MM/year. I just don't think New York is going to be big spenders for a few more years, until they unbury their bad contracts that they have written or will write in the next year or so. I think there is a greater than 50% chance that Lee stays with an offer of $17MM+ per year. The Mariners can afford it and he's not stupid. The Mariners are on the cusp of greatness in a winable division and he'd be guaranteed to pitch along Felix for 4+ years. Oh and having Ichiro and Guti playing behind you in the field and contributing with the sticks can't hurt his desire to stick. Not saying he will, but there is enough chance that he will want to be here that the fringe 3rd guy we get to make the package better than the two compensation picks, isn't worth trading away that opportunity. Remember nobody thought we'd re-sign Bedard and while he's a little beaten up, he's taken a huge paycut this year to stay in Seattle (word was that he could have got $3-$4 guaranteed from other teams with less incentives). I can see enough positives with Seattle from a player perspective, he likes his teammates, and he wouldn't have to spend his offseason moving his property from his home in Seattle. Cliff Lee is like a prostitute. Everybody wants him for his short-term benefits, but everyone has reservations about making a long-term commitment with him due to his medical history, age, and amount of overall use. From his perspective, he feels unwanted and has had commitment problems in the past. He just wants to be loved, by ownership, teammates, and fans. Prostitutes sell their body because they feel unwanted. Cliff Lee just like a prostitute, wants to be wanted. If we can overlook his past usage, his medical history, and his age, he could be just want the Mariners family needs! |
| 23. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 06-09-2010 06:36:47 Sorry about the long post JAC & Chris, was one of those things that can only be edited down so much without losing the overall point. I edited 1/2 out of that, so I'm trying guys! Hopefully my prostitute comment goes over okay! |
| 24. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 06-09-2010 07:12:18 Just a thought about the draft. Littlewood reminds me of Triunfel, not sure why, what do you think guys? With Littlewood being further from the majors and the Mariners only having room for Triunfel OR Ackley, since Figgins will be our 3B and Franklin is on the fast track to being our SS by 2012 or so. Seems to me that signing Littlewood allows Jack to trade Triunfel or Ackley for the impact bat we need this offseason. Say we try trading for Votto after the season because Alonso can't field well enough to play anywhere but 1B and Votto said he won't move off the position. Alonso's under team control for six years to Votto's three, his bat projects to be about the same as what they are getting from Joey now, Votto has more trade value, and Yonder is significantly younger. Example A: Dustin Ackley, Shawn Kelley, Jharmidy DeJesus, and Ryan Feierabend. Example B: Carlos Triunfel, Shawn Kelley, Alex Liddi, and Josh Fields. Just seems to me that Littlewood, Triunfel, Ackley, Seager, Tenbrink, DeJesus, Noriega, Diaz, and Mario Martinez is way too many guys for only 2B and 3B, with Figgins under team control for 4 to 5 years. Oh and I love the Paxton pick, I think he'll get signed for $1.5MM and will be in the majors as a reliever by 2011 or as a starter by Sept. of 2012. Walker reminds me of James McDonald from Los Angeles. Both have similar velocity, inconsistent breaking balls, athletic, tall, strong basketball skills and picked up baseball late. You with me on that comparison JAC? Seems a weird draft board, but I'm happy with the result and I'm glad he stocked up on pitchers, because I was pretty sure he'd keeping going for hitters, until we looked like Milwaukee (score 10 runs and lose 11-10 to teams like Houston) and Zduriencik needs as much margin for error on pitchers as he can get, clearly he's at least partially to blame for the fact that the Brewers staff is horrible! |
| 25. By: Galway on 06-09-2010 08:03:01 Correct me if I am wrong but the Yankees stadium expenses count as capital improvements and hence the debt service according to CBA is deductible from their revenue sharing and hence may have a zero cash flow impact. Paying for their own stadium was a very strategic move to KEEP more cash. With a much improved farm system, significant dead money rolling off, the M's (despite how dismal things look) may be in their best position in a decade to improve that roster quickly. Whether trades, new talent developing, or a free agent or two the M's may have their greatest flexibility and a quality GM for the first time in a long time. So there is hope and it may come quicker than it feels like now. |
| 26. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 06-09-2010 08:58:52 One thing to keep in mind regarding the Mariners and possible trades. Figgins is a proven leadoff hitter that offers positional flexibility and a relatively low salary. If Ackley and Triunfel are both looking like studs this time next year it may be Figgins that is on the trade block instead of one of the kids. |
| 27. By: Edman on 06-09-2010 12:12:50 Jack was brought in specifically to rebuild the M's from the ground up. Last year was a unforseen benefit. If Jack trades Lee, he's likely going to want younger players who he can build a core around. If you want older, experienced players, you do that once you have a core, unless they come without hurting the farm system by trading needed pieces. I don't see him trading for Pena. He's to old to build around and will be a free agent. He doesn't need to trade for this year, at this point. He is not trading Ackely for a power bat. You don't trade the second overall pick, whom you've spent a lot of money to sign, unless it's an amazing deal. Ackley is considered part of the future's core. I can't ever see Jack trading him for Votto. He's got two potential power bats of his own, developing at high A ball, in Poythesis and Raben. Jack's charter from the beginning, was to rebuild the M's, and he hasn't swayed from that. Even the Lee trade, though a bit of a reach, can still be used to build for the future. |
| 28. By: Chris Crawford on 06-09-2010 13:35:29 This is not prospectinsiderliteratureessay.com rosterbater, no more warnings. |
| 29. By: Lailoken on 06-09-2010 13:41:05 Edman, I think the discussion earlier was about signing Pena as a FA not trading for him. Cantu & Martinez are FA too. The thread also confusingly talks about trading Lee for a deal centered around Brignac. As far as Pena the FA, currently he's hitting .183 in Tampa with normal power numbers & hit .227 last year. If he doesn't show well in the second half he could be a bargain or bust type--- not a big-money deal. Some of it may be luck as his BABIP is 2009 was .250 & this year it's .202. In his first eight years in the bigs his BABIP never dipped below .284. The decline certainly puts up a big ole red flag when you're looking at a big-bodied slugger in his mid-thirties. |
| 30. By: Galway on 06-09-2010 13:45:03 Pena, pass haven't we tried enough turn around stories at first. Plus turn arounds in the mid 30's is pretty rare barring heavy pharmacuticals. |
| 31. By: lewis on 06-09-2010 14:18:25 in reference to Walker "his retatively short arm path" is referring to what aspect of his throwing motion, and what does that look like? thanks! |
| 32. By: rjfrik on 06-09-2010 14:34:49 You don not sign Pena period and especially if it's going to cost you a pick. I would hope the M's are over mid 30 year old home run hitters who can't hit better then .220. No Thanks. And there is no reason to trade your young talent. Littlewood hasn't even played a game yet and you are anointing him as our future 3bmen. Let Trinufel, Littlewood, Franklin at least get past AA ball before you think they will fill a position on the M's. You stockpile that talent and find out who beats who out once they are capable, then you trade one of them, IF, you get blown away with a deal. Our farm system is turning into our strength. Let's not start trading away the pieces. And if you want to sign a FA 1bman this upcoming year. You go out and sign Prince Fielder. JZ knows him and Seattle is the perfect city for Prince and his family; free spirit, vegans. Seattle fits a lot more then Milwaukee does. |
| 33. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-09-2010 15:19:09 In brief: From his perspective, he (Cliff Lee) feels unwanted and has had commitment problems in the past. He just wants to be loved, by ownership, teammates, and fans. Prostitutes sell their body because they feel unwanted. Rosterbater- none of us are privy to what Cliff Lee thinks of his image, himself, or how he thinks about things. It'd be presumptuous of us to even try. Proclaiming that he feels like a prostitute is waaaaaaaaaaaay too assumptive. (And,FWIW, unless we're prostitutes ourselves? We have no business saying why it's done.) Cliff Lee's a professional baseball player who's doubtless long since acquainted with the reality of its business-oriented nature. Jason Churchill brought up a very good point a few months ago that there had never been a team with TWO $100-million-dollar caliber arms on its staff. At least, not at the point where you had to PAY them like hundred-mil arms. Jason also pointed out that there was nothing to indicate that the Seattle Mariners would be the first to do so. But, what Cliff Lee wants should not be discounted. For all we know, he's fallen in love with this area... but for obvious business reasons can't divulge such. A very interesting decision awaits Jack Zduriencik. Since 2011 is looking "potentially epic"- with values all over up to and including compensation rounds- my gut feeling is we keep him and make a very generous offer that Lee declines for more money elsewhere (such as the Yankees. Sabathia is one of his best friends in all of baseball, and it's one heckuva talented club- much as I despise them). |
| 34. By: Galway on 06-09-2010 15:38:27 Great post Rocket |
| 35. By: DAMellen on 06-09-2010 15:59:26 Any of our day three picks even worth discussing? Like Jake Schlander...come on, he went to Stanford so you know he's smart...that'll probably help him be a major league player, right? Anyone? Hello? |
| 36. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-09-2010 18:42:21 I'm not sure about Schlander,DA...don't know the first thing about his stuff, really. But there were some intriguing guys I'd love to ask Jason or Chris about. Such as: 35th-rounder 1B Ethan Paquette. Wonder if he's any relation to former Athletic 3B Craig. 45th-rounder RHP Stephen Kohlscheen- Guy's a 6'6" guy from Auburn, looks like he can dial it to 91-92. Wonder if he has any possibility of gaining muscle and life to fastball. 49th-rounder CF Colton Keough- has major-league bloodlines, his dad played. Is he a guy that's more talented than what the 49th-round would indicate, with a hard commit to go to school, like Frankie Christian? 50th-rounder RHP David Holman- Brian's kid, seems like a virtual physical clone at 6'4" 170 (his old man was same height and 185 lbs.). Does he have better stuff than Brian? Or Pop's head for pitching? Brian Holman's stuff was major-league adequate (especially for the time)...but his best attribute was between his ears. |
| 37. By: Lonnie on 06-09-2010 18:53:32 Jason, or Chris For some odd reason I can't access the subscriber area. What's up wit dat? Lonnie |
| 38. By: Lailoken on 06-09-2010 19:23:48 33rd round pick D.J. (Doug) Peterson intrigues. He's a commit to U of Arizona. A right-handed hitting 3B. He hit 17 homers as a junior w/ a .410 average (1.512 OPS) then hit 9 dingers as a senior w/ a .462 average. He was pitched around a lot as a senior as he walked 34 times. Don't know if he's signable but he has exhibited patience & power in high school & a top program in the Pac-10 wants him. I'm far from an expert on swings but he has his own website with film of his junior year if anybody wants to watch it & critique. |
| 39. By: Lailoken on 06-09-2010 19:46:20 Lonnie, I posted the Steve Baron interview over at Mariners Minors a few days ago if you didn't see it. Sometimes when I enter a password I accidentally hit caps lock or num lock & that present problems. If you haven't already checked those... |
| 40. By: Lonnie on 06-09-2010 22:15:04 Thanks Lailoken, but I can log in, I just can't access the subscriber stuff like the draft reports and such. Lonnie |
| 41. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-09-2010 23:40:12 Lewis, Meaning from the time his arm breaks from his body to go toward second base until the time he releases the ball. |
| 42. By: Lailoken on 06-10-2010 00:28:27 Lonnie, the Baron interview is quite good BTW. He talks about how they are working on what he does with his hands when he swings. An intelligent kid, I can see why the scouting department had faith that he would work hard & justify his draft position. |
| 43. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-10-2010 00:49:21 I had a Mariners player development member give not-so-good reviews of Baron, despite marked progress with his swing. He just isn't going to hit. |
| 44. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-10-2010 02:33:43 Stanek may be better than Griggs, but Shipers is not. Griggs has a chance to develop into a first rounder. |
| 45. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-10-2010 03:09:30 masonb, In case this has yet to be addressed, Littlewood was in no way an overdraft at 67. I know of four clubs that had him top 50 and three more that had him as a second-round talent. |
| 46. By: shemberry on 06-10-2010 07:34:19 Jason, Not sure where to ask this, so I will put it here. With Raben hitting so well at HD, how soon can we expect a promotion? Is it possible he could be in Tacoma by the end of this year? |
| 47. By: acqb1424 on 06-10-2010 09:08:17 Random question guys, but did the chat happen last night? I missed it due to graduation at the school I teach at...will a transcript be posted? |
| 48. By: Edman on 06-10-2010 10:55:37 shem, I can't speak for Jason, but I would expect that he won't see Tacoma any sooner than perhaps the last month of the season. He's coming back from an injury, so I doubt they'll want to push him too hard. He's obviously not showing signs of rust. I do expect that he'll be moved up to the Jaxx sometime before the end of July. He's got nothing to prove at High Dessert. I actually feel fairly secure with Raben and/or Poythesis handling duties at firstbase, in a couple of years. |
| 49. By: shemberry on 06-10-2010 11:05:24 Ed, That's kind of what I was thinking that it may be possible for him to get a couple of weeks in Tacoma before the season ends. I am high on him, I love his patience and he has great power. He may be a steal. |
| 50. By: lewis on 06-10-2010 14:19:42 thanks Jason, are there any examples of pitchers that jumpout at you on the ML level that illustrate extreme long arm path and extreme short arm path that come to mind and is by any chance time ever a way that is used to measure arm path length or is it just the distance traveled regardless of the time it takes. thanks for helping me understand these issues lewis |
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