|By Jason A. Churchill||By 01-02-2013|
|1. By: pwhit44 on 01-02-2013 17:22:44|
Great summary of the issue, JC. As Mariners fans, we have to stop talking about this. For our own good. For me, it's an unhealthy, horrible obsession. Even if the M's are one of the top players for him, the odds that the stars align so perfectly that Stanton is traded, and that the cost isn't so prohibitive that the Mariners brass can all agree that it's the right idea... these odds have to be astronomical.
And yet it's all we (I) can think about.
|2. By: Edman on 01-02-2013 17:23:59|
Thank you, Jason. Some here here that the Marlins are "listening" to offers for Stanton, and assume a bunch of prospects will get it done. How insulted would Seattle fans be, if they traded Felix for a bunch of prospects, before they needed to?
One example I heard today was the trade of Cabrera to the Tigers. Miami thought they were getting back more than they actually got in Maybin and Miller.
I'm sure that some will still hold on to hope, but why would the Marlins trade their only real box office draw, who won't enter arbitration until next season?
|3. By: pwhit44 on 01-02-2013 17:36:48|
For the record, I think you start with either Montero or Seager, add Walker, and then just keep on piling on the names. Montero-Walker-Franklin-Maurer-Hicks-Guti-Thames. Who knows where it ends...
Dammit. Foiled again!
|4. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-02-2013 17:56:21|
Count me among the ones reaaaaaaaally tired of hearing the Stanton speculation as it pertains to us.
This is not going to happen, not while Stanton is so cheap for sure.
I want improvements as much as the next Mariners fan. But I like how Zduriencik isn't shadowboxing himself into a market that isn't there.
I'm going to as many games as I can, as is (particularly Felix starts and if any of the hot kids make it up this year).
Because I'M A FAN. I've waited this long for the team to be relevant, I can certainly pony up more patience and see the plan through.
The better days aren't that far away.
|5. By: Galway on 01-02-2013 18:17:42|
Jason first off well stated and fair article. Is there any indication the Rangers are willing to part with Profar for anyone?
Secondly, I read some of your twitter stuff and must give you props for your patience.
|6. By: Docmilo on 01-02-2013 18:19:39|
Stanton's outburst should be expected from a young kid full of fire. On the other hand there is something to be said about the Marlin GM's comments. He said they lost over 90 games with all those veterans.
The Marlins could be a suprising good team next year. They will have a ton of young pitching, but with Stanton, Morrison, Ruggiano, Brantley and Hechevarria, they could have a fine young team playing with high energy. There is a very good chance that the team is better next year than it was this year and once Stanton gets to camp and sees the youth and energy, he may be happy to stick around.
|7. By: jordan on 01-02-2013 18:45:03|
#6.....The Marlins are not going to be very good this year. Morrison has not panned out that well. Ruggiano is like 29, Brantley is a nice young C and Hechevarria probably won't hit that well. That team has no 2B, 3B, LF (Solano Polanco and Pierre). They have questions at SS 1B (depending on Morrison) and CF (was Ruggiano a fluke) Their starting pitching is terrible. Henderson Alvarez will probably be their opening day player. Most of their Organizations talent is waiting in the minors.
That said, I would ask the moon for Stanton. They have all the power in the world in this case. I would not trade him unless I was desperate. At this point, I don't think they are desperate but come a year from now...Oh My God. Stanton might bring back the best young talent/best prospects the game has ever seen.
I think an offer of Walker, Montero and Seager is a good starting point. Throw in Franklin/Paxton plus a lower level guy like Pike or Guerrero, I think they would have to at least listen.
|8. By: DRWheelock on 01-02-2013 20:00:03|
JAC - What do you think the odds of a Braun trade is, since we have so much payroll available, and the Brewers are just starting their rebuild plan in 2013? There is no need for the Brewers to have Braun on the payroll for $20M for the next 4-5 years. What do you think it would cost the M's in prospects for Braun now?
1. Braun now, and then
2. Stanton by July or next offseason for the ton of prospects it will take.
That would setup our middle of the order power for years to come, while we watch Jack Z rebuild our Farm System.
|9. By: Edman on 01-02-2013 20:46:46|
Even after what Jason wrote, some of you simply won't give up. How did Braun's name get thrown into the pot? What makes anyone think that the Brewers are even remotely interested in moving him? Some of you are making up scenarios that just don't exist, and were not a possibility. Since when do you know that the Brewers want to do? You don't, but you assume what you think they should do, is what they would want to do.
With the additional wild card teams, every team that is close to .500 believe that they have a shot. It's not the same environment of two years ago.
Why not hope that the Angels decide to get rid of Albert, and pay $100 million of his salary?
I would love for some GMs to go braindead, but it's not going to happen.
|10. By: Wishhiker on 01-03-2013 02:31:11|
Doesn't Braun have 8 years left? If he was a free agent I don't know that I'd be happy signing him to the deal he has. And then there's what we'd have to trade to get him. No thanks anyway. It seems like a stretch that he's even available, given that all the talk at the time of the extension was that the Brewers want to keep him his whole career. He's signed through his age 36 season with a mutual $20 million option for age 37. He's more valuable to the Brewers than anyone else as a career Brewer, so I don't think he's scalable without an extreme overpay. Forget Braun, it's not going to happen.
|11. By: email@example.com on 01-03-2013 09:01:44|
I don't make either trade for Braun or Stanton. I don't give up on Montero, Ackley, or Smoak. They will come around this year. In their miserable year last year they were 6th in Average and HR's on the road.
Once they come around and it will happen this year, it will be a blessing to watch. Don't trade away this talent...even for Stanton. he is only one player.
|12. By: roosevelt on 01-03-2013 10:03:26|
Any thoughts on the Andre Either trade talks?
|13. By: Edman on 01-03-2013 10:28:22|
I think the Either trade has more legs than even discussing Stanton or Braun. I don't think the Dodgers are in any hurry to move him, but there's at least a slim chance that they are. Had the signed Swisher, I think it would have been much more likely.
|14. By: maqman on 01-03-2013 11:33:04|
I would seriously consider Stanton if he were made available but don't think Z would give away four years work for any one player, nor should he.
Ethier is a player I've liked for a few seasons but I don't want the M's to get him, he's simply not worth what he is going to cost financially and is essentially just a platoon player. Pass please.
I'm probably in the minority but I'd be okay going to spring training with what we have, although a cheap veteran innings eater like Millwood would be helpful. I think what we have is better than what many fans believe.
|15. By: Edman on 01-03-2013 12:07:36|
I'd have no problem with Millwood's return. I wouldn't want him at the expense of finding other options. But, he'd be a good fall-back kinda guy.
|16. By: rotoenquire on 01-03-2013 12:58:58|
There are a couple trade or signings that could happen.
M. Morse OF Was
J. Kubal OF Ari
D. Young OF F/A
B. Boesch OF Det
A. LaRoche 1B F/A
J. Jurrjens SP F/A
C. Young SP F/A
J.P. Howell RP F/A
Just a list of whom may actually be available and who could fit into the M's $ amount.
|17. By: marinerforever on 01-03-2013 13:54:50|
If I was gmz I would start the conversation with you pick 2 of the big three and your pick of franklin or miller and I would put seager or ackley in the deal. That would get the conversation going this is a once in a lifetime talent I would give up anything that isn't felix or zunnino
|18. By: Edman on 01-03-2013 15:59:01|
marinerforever, a conversation for whom? If it's for Stanton or Braun, it's not nearly enough to get any real interest, unless Bavasi has a new job.
If that's the best Seattle has to offer, then why would they bother to listen?
|19. By: jgthompson21 on 01-03-2013 16:44:00|
Shut the fuck up already and quit acting like this is your blog space. We get it. Ur a know it all and NO ONE else is allowed to make up hypothetical trades.
Quit taking over the comments and let others be
|20. By: Edman on 01-03-2013 17:14:54|
Yeah, sorry for injecting logic. Bad me.
|21. By: whereswoody on 01-03-2013 17:25:31|
Edman, your comparison with the marlins stance to trade Stanton with the Mariners in Felix is inaccurate. Unlike the mariners stance, the marlins have brought up the notion of a deal involving Stanton. Thus, Felix means more to the mariners than Stanton means to the marlins.
Read the title of this piece, dumbfuck
It sais the marlins will listen to all offers on Stanton, so why is it a crime for fans to be optimistic about it.
Go jump off a bridge you pessimistic fuck
|22. By: Gibbo on 01-03-2013 17:37:15|
Edman... He said that should start the conversation, not close the deal so stop acting like a know it all and read the context before you start shooting off. A deal of Walker, Hultzen, Franklin and Seager should get attention for a player that their team has said they would listen to offers....as woody proved that's a lot different than the Griffey or Felix examples.
|23. By: Gibbo on 01-03-2013 17:42:05|
Just to add, most reasoned people don't expect Stanton to be shopped this winter and all GMs know this is most likely too. But starting conversations now is harmless, the Mariners have been in touch with the Marlins, but using your logic why don't you tell GMZ to stop wasting his time because Edman says it won't happen and you know best.
So if the GMs are going to talk then fans are going to throw out names there too.
|24. By: rotoenquire on 01-03-2013 19:47:12|
all I can say is LOL!
|25. By: rotoenquire on 01-03-2013 19:56:04|
Te O's just released Elvis Duran there top laitn signing of 2011. A reported elbow injury no real specifics. You know anythign Jason? If memory serves the kid had some serious arm power.
|26. By: krob4mvp on 01-03-2013 20:21:04|
I want to see a 3 team deal that goes like this.....
1) Justin Upton
2) Carter Capps
Arizona Diamondbacks Receive
1) Mike Olt
2) Taijuan Walker
1) Jurickson Profar
2) Derek Holland
3) Adam Eaton or Jason Kubel
|27. By: DRWheelock on 01-03-2013 20:53:23|
You're insane krob4mvp! Why would Seattle give up 4 of our top prospects?
The reason Upton didn't go to Texas to start with is that Texas would not send Profar in the package. Now Dbacks have already got their SS via trade, so now they don't need Franklin or Profar, so there is no need for Texas in this deal. Yes Seattle was interested in Holland during the Winter Meetings, but Dbacks GM is high on Eaton, and regarding Kubel they aren't getting much for him.
You are giving up our #1 SP prospect in Walker?!!! Then Maurer?!!! And Franklin & even Capps??!!!
The Bavasi for Bedard days are over with Dr. Z running the show.
|28. By: baseballman on 01-03-2013 21:12:56|
|29. By: dewey on 01-03-2013 22:21:45|
Dr Z HASNT EXACTLY knocked them dead in trades are free agents sorry #27 i would love a rotation of Felix,Fister Morrow, im missing one orhe i wouldnt mins Eric O in the pen he waived him and old Mike Morse yep the guy we got Langerhouse for now we want him back foir prospects. JZ and his scouts have done a nice job in the draft i think only time will tell right now the hype is good. I hope it goes well but there is way to much praise here for JZ its time for results.Also his first big pick Ackley the second pick hasnt really evenlived up to half the hype im sure i will get killed on this site but every thing i have written is facts!
|30. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-03-2013 22:44:20|
That's an interesting trade scenario you've presented, but it doesn't have the "ring of right" to me. I looked at it, tried to figure out why that was.
I do think DRWheelock is right when he points out there's no real need for Texas to be in on the deal and that the Snakes' trade targets have in all likelihood changed. The Rangers have made it quite clear they regard Profar as special.
Considering his lack of ML-service time and a megaton of potential, he may be as nearly-unacquirable as Stanton is.
Yes, Dewey. You've presented SOME facts, yes. But the truth is you've only used the facts that seem to support your point that Zduriencik has done a bad job.
Why you have such a hard-on to prove that you're not on any "GMZ Bandwagon" is beyond me. I'll assume you have your personal reasons, and opt not to know them.
If GMZ deserves vilification for underselling Mike Morse (and that was for Ryan LangerHANS, thank ya), he also deserves credit for landing a lefty-hitting catcher in John Jaso for what was a *very* expendable RH-relief pitcher in Josh Lueke. If he deserves scorn for Ackley not being a superstar YET, doesn't he also deserve credit for tabbing Zunino 3rd overall and him subsequently treating the minors like it's a game of Pong?
And what about Brendan Ryan? We got the best-fielding shortstop in the game (I'll take the runs he saves in lieu of his being a horrific hitter) for a minor-league righthander in Maikel Cleto- who isn't anything in the majors, and may never be.
If he wasn't the most snakebitten major-league in the last 15 years, we'd still be crowing over stealing Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians.
That was the same deal, remember, where we landed years of quality starting pitching from Jason Vargas.
I'm afraid, dewey, the hard-and-fast supposition that Zduriencik "hasn't exactly knocked them dead in trades" doesn't hold water in every instance. Not even close. It can't be used as empiric "fact".
|31. By: DRWheelock on 01-03-2013 22:52:48|
#29 Morrow has NEVER pitched more than 179 innings, and only 124 last year. He was a flippin wimpy whining head case when he was in Seattle.
I would love a rotation of:
And this whole Mike Morse interest thing makes me sick. Horrible Defense, and not worth giving up any prospects for. I always liked his bat, but Langerdusch did provide the defensive hole we needed to fill at the time.
It definitely is time for results though! I will give you that!
|32. By: rjfrik on 01-04-2013 00:48:17|
I feel as if I'm speaking on the behalf of tall the regulars on this site, especially any poster who has been on here the last five years or so.
The Edman bashing cracks me up and I feel, most of the regulars up. Way to stand up to him knew guys. You won't be pushed around and that is condemnable and is truly awesome. So call Edman out, fuck it, and have a blast while doing it.
Sincerely the rest of the prospectinsider regulars.
|33. By: Uncle Al on 01-04-2013 01:25:32|
I haven't wanted to post on this site for a long time because of that useless piece of shit and it is good to see others who are tired of him. I used to call him the "hemorrhoid" but whereswoody and "dumbfuck" is probably even better. Now I will go back to minding my own business after the good laugh you people have given me. This was priceless.
|34. By: Hackinator on 01-04-2013 04:49:29|
In re to Edman comments....the man is very predictable isn't he .... you read a post that has Stanton's name in it ad.....wait for it ....wait for it ....yup Edman doesn't like it ...
I typically skip over his comments as they have a theme that repeats itself... I am right and you are wrong ....
Edman , bro, ya gotta mix it up .... if you keep bringing the heat , you are gonna get lit up ...try a breaking ball or a change of pace....just sayin
|35. By: Galway on 01-04-2013 07:10:47|
With Jacobs and Ibanez etc... does Smoak now go from battling for ABs to just trying to get a roster spot? Is it stretching to think since Ibanez is going nowhere that Smoak's odds of being traded are rising?
|36. By: Galway on 01-04-2013 07:20:31|
Stanton, I understand everyone loves their own prospects but he is not at like an Upton or Ethier and simply no one in the M's system has a ceiling close to his now. There is no way any trade wipes out 4 years work. Most prospects added by Z are still going to be here. The likelyhood of Z being able to replace what he gives up over the course of time are much greater than finding Stanton tool set elsewhere.
Is there reasoning to the logic that Stanton is currently cheap and compared to bats such as Griffey etc... How much room above those expectations is there for him to increase his value? If Miami concludes they likely won'y hold him beyond the next few years and well they already have nucleur w their fanbase now so taking the hit now and rebuilding may not be so insane. Especially if you avoid the risk of injury or just really good performance that may be shy of very very high expectations. Seems like there is some logic for trading now although now urgency per se. So discussing Stanton has merit and its just a bit closed minded to say no way has zero chance.
Total opinion, but I do feel he and Nolacasco (sp) do get traded to someone.
|37. By: baseballman on 01-04-2013 09:11:34|
It's pretty sad when over half the posts on here are directed at a single and have nothing to do with the article JAC posted. Who cares if you have issues with a poster? Stop the petty cussing and attacks and just ignore that poster.
JAC has built an awesome site, so can we please stick to the Mariner's content and get away from the internet tough guy garbage?
|38. By: Rudolf on 01-04-2013 09:33:55|
Each of us commit crimes against decency with our biases and attitudes, and our posts are frequently riddled with nonsense. None of us are general managers but we all assume the role to varying degrees. If the negative nancy bothers YOU, maybe the wet dream trade proposal guy bothers ME. Or the guy who can't stop bitching about Chuck n Howie, Bavasi, the Morrow trade, etc. The bottom line is there are a lot of uninformed people making bold statements on this site and not everyone is a sweetheart. Lighting someone up, as hackinator said, and patting each other on the back for doing it, will always be schoolyard bully chicken s--t.
|39. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 10:07:17|
No Hackinator, you're wrong. Stanton or Upton. Because some here are absolutely OBSESSESSED with both players, to the point of taking any little crumb of evidence that they might be available and turning it into a sandwich.
Worse yet, is that because of their obsession, the reflect that back onto Jack, because he didn't make their obsession a reality.
As pwhit44 said in the first post:
Great summary of the issue, JC. As Mariners fans, we have to stop talking about this. For our own good. For me, it's an unhealthy, horrible obsession.
|40. By: Galway on 01-04-2013 10:15:11|
Not obsession at all, he is one of about three big bat possibilities in discussion w Ethier and Upton.
Unlike the other two Stanton is a generational type talent so naturally gets most discussion both good and bad. To say Stanton is the only solution is just wrong. To say discussing him is obsession and hold onto to prospects no matter what is also wrong in my view. Is he a likelyhood, nope, a possibility with a big price tag yep. The likelyhood part is purely opinion on everyone's part but discussion is fair.
|41. By: Uncle Al on 01-04-2013 10:33:46|
Ever consider that these are good people who wish to enjoy this site and just get tired of constantly being attacked by Edman and are forced to defend themselves against him. Can't think of anyone who is more of a total social misfit than him who needs to be lit up. This situation has nothing to do with school yard bullies. This has to do with a problem on the site.
|42. By: Rudolf on 01-04-2013 10:53:25|
But Al, who gets to rank the problems? If I ranked them Edman wouldn't be at the top- perseverating complainers would! To me, Edman is a big part of the group here.
Edman has taken criticism on this site for years. I myself have referred to him as having a personality disorder-- which he refuted :) Over time I've learned to embrace his POV and presence, as well as others' POV which I have found tiresome/annoying/asinine at times. It is one thing for someone to snap off a pissy post out of frustration, because hey, haven't we all? Regardless, ganging up and telling someone to "shut the eff up", or calling them a "dumbf--k" will never sit well with me. Especially when Edman clearly isn't dumb. IMO the behavior is worse for this site than any single POV.
I apologize for being the moral policeman. I'm done now. Carry on.
|43. By: maqman on 01-04-2013 11:21:55|
Well said Rudolph. Personally I've found Edman's opinions fairly reasonable and lucid and more realistic than some of the rosterbations he's put down. I'd guess at least half the posters here think my opinions are dumb ass blowing in the wind and sometimes they would be right but it's taken me 75 years (76 on the 29th, please no presents) to get this smart so until you grow up some I'll be speaking from more experience than most of you young pups.
|44. By: Uncle Al on 01-04-2013 11:35:08|
I'm afraid Edman ranks number one on many peoples lists and they don't think he adds anything and that happens to be the camp I'm in because of his behavior. Edman clearly isn't too bright either or he'd quit creating problems for other people and wouldn't get lit up. I can't get caught up in how this sits with you and I totally disagree with you that other peoples behavior on this site is worse than that of Edman. As that would just be ignoring the facts. I'm not looking for an argument with you but playing the moral policeman and asking for political correctness when it comes to Edman just isn't the proper thing to do. You are asking the wrong people to accept something that just isn't right and being forced on them. It's clear that we will never agree on this but I can at least discuss this with you which would be impossible with Edman and a complete waste of time.
|45. By: Hackinator on 01-04-2013 11:44:29|
Edman , you missed my point ....your criticisms are usually correct.... we get it ..... what I am saying is change it up, because you getting to be redundant ....try some sarcasm, some humor ....c'mon dude entertain us ....show us what you got besides that heater....that is why we come on here
|46. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 12:00:04|
I've tried the sacasm thing, and gotten bashed for that. I have plenty of humor. :)
|47. By: ripperlv on 01-04-2013 12:01:10|
I thought the subject was Stanton, but it appears it's more about Edman. I understand the comments from both sides. Come on fellas, can't we play in the sandbox together without bringing out the toys with razonr sharp edges? If not, then to hell with y'all.
@29 dewey, I agree with you. But I think the time for JZ is just now becoming ripe. We actually have some prospects that can be traded and still have some prospects left. Let's see what JZ can do with prospects and money. Seems to me, the time is about there.
Trade everyone for Stanton. Oh, except Felix of course, because we don't trade him. Hmmm, think the Marlins would really trade Stanton? They'd have to have a damn good reason and I think they have a couple. I'll put this one on my secret wish list.
|48. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 12:27:44|
It's pretty clear that some don't like their ideas put in the water to see if they float. Almost all of the trade proposals have only given thought to what Seattle fans would want, and barely consider what the other team would need in return.
How many have actually looked at (in this case, Miami) their current roster, Top-Twenty prospect lists, etc., before throwing names into a trade proposal? You should be able to defend why another team would want what you propose. And, don't believe that quantiy of prospects is more important that potential impact.
|49. By: Bellacaramella on 01-04-2013 13:19:49|
I'll bite, Edman:
Michael Saunders, Kyle Seager, Taijuan Walker, John Jaso, and Stefan Romero for Stanton and Jeff Mathis.
If I'm Miami, I'd like major league talent coming back, not a prospect haul. And that's the problem. The Mariners don't have enough proven ML talent right now compared to what Miami could get elsewhere.
|50. By: Juan Valdez on 01-04-2013 13:34:14|
It isn't so much what Edman says but how he says it. In his comments, there is a lack of civility and respect for others that is obnoxious and rude. If this was a moderated forum I would hope that moderators would check him from time to time so that he would learn. But, that isn't the case here and so he's allowed to basically act like a troll.
This site badly needs a redesign as well. Even this textbox I'm typing in is buggy as hell.
|51. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 14:04:19|
Correct, Bellacaramella. You can stack up all the prospects you want, but.....
1. Why would Seattle give up one of the major advantages they have collected, cheap, under control talent.
2. Miami likely would get an offer that includes major league ready talent, something that Seattle doesn't really have. California and Texas both have players with major league experience that they could include in a package, and Seattle has no surplus.
Juan, you want to see what a troll really is? I'll guide you to a couple Mariner sites, and give you some real examples.
Asking people to think about what they post, is not being a troll. To be blunt, some are lazy. So, rather than do the research themselves, they propose trades, then ask Jason to go do the evaluation for them. At the very least, rather than say, "If Seattle included players X, Y and Z, would Miami listen?".......how about, "If Seattle included players X, Y and Z, I think the would listen because they have a need at ......." In otherwords, it would be nice if some would do some of their own research, rater than expect Jason to do it for them. He has far more responsibilies in real life, and can't be here all the time. And, it's kind of fun to dig deeper. Instead of asking Jason, tell Jason why you think it would work. Be fair to him.
|52. By: Wishhiker on 01-04-2013 14:41:43|
I do recall a time, years ago, that I would have agreed with the extremely negative assessment of Edmans communication on the site. I think his commenting has improved a lot in the past few years, but there's that stigma and still enough of the tone that some of those that remember 5 year old flame wars don't see the change. Newer posters pile on and it snowballs. I don't see responses about his tone having any less tone, so stop being hypocrites. Escalation does not diffuse a situation, it just turns protests into riots.
I've posted many stupid comments on the site over the years and have chosen to learn from corrections by other posters, including Edman. You can bring out the Billy clubs when Edman is trying to stand there and tell you something, but that puts you more in the wrong regardless of what he's saying. Police aren't correct just because they're policing. learn to diffuse the situation without insults and escalation, because this whole thing was not caused by Edman or his comments, all of the crowd control chose to escalate the situation, in my opinion unjustly.
|53. By: rjfrik on 01-04-2013 15:07:22|
Edman is right about the majority of trade ideas posted on here are ridiculous and that can be frustrating to some (ie Edman). People should do some more research on certain topics, Edman is right about that.
But Juan Valdez is correct that Edman does come off a bit rude a lot of the time. But hey that's Edman.
|54. By: masonb on 01-04-2013 15:14:38|
I should preface this by saying that Edman and I have had plenty of disagreements on the past on many a topic, but I have to say, some of you need to man up and stop acting like children any time someone brings up a valid complaint to what you write. Yes, Edman does come across douchey at times, but so what. At least he has the capacity to bring up valid questions to what some of you are proposing. Do all of you who are resorting to profanity to get your point across do so in real life? How does that work for you?
I've been a member of this site for years, and I have to say, that recently it seems that the quality of discussion by alot of posters, especially some of the newbies, is for lack of better terms lazy. All this rosterbation nonsense just gets old after a certain point, almost to where I choose not to even read comments anymore. It seems like 90% of the comments anymore are rosterbation or pissing matches. Stop acting like you lack intelligence to have an adult conversation.
|55. By: Wishhiker on 01-04-2013 15:16:38|
The prospects go deeper than i think most realize. There are a lot of lower minor guys, lower round picks, that will be coming in to conversations in another year or 2. The 2012 draft had quite a few players we'll be talking about within the next few years alone that just haven't had time to put up the stats most of us need to see to notice them.
I'm not saying that it'd be easy to replace what it might take to get Stanton in the next year, just that I don't think it would hurt that badly if it cost 4 of our top 15. It sounds about right for both the Mariners and Marlins to wait another 7-10 months and that timeframe should help the Mariners in rising values of the pieces as well as more clarity on which ones will be needed in house. Now sounds great to the fan in me, but reasonably the trade deadline or next offseason sounds better for knowing who to move and getting Major League service for enough players that we can conceivably move more pieces that fit the Marlins needs while knowing or own depth better.
|56. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 15:22:13|
What I found frustrating by this thread is all the work Jason went through, explaining how remote it was for a Stanton deal to get done, it's like people ignored the concept, and by post #7, it was back to trade speculation. Some are obsessed with the idea that either Stanton or Upton NEED to be Mariners. Even in the best conditions, it's still a remote possibility.
|57. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 15:25:58|
If I was GM of the Marlins, I would have to have Zunino in the deal, period, then start adding players and prospects.
I don't think Jack would give that kind of potential up.
|58. By: dewey on 01-04-2013 16:45:25|
The one thing i allways here on here we want young controlable players ahhh yeah everyone does how about this lets get good players sometimes they cost money like Felix and others if you want to compete you rarely do with alot of kids.I wish it did but time ans test allways say you have to have some Vetrans and i guess the key to that is picking the right ones. Im not trying to be a jagoff but is it great to have young controlable players and finish 4th or do we spend some money on the right guys and try and win. Im wondering if the higher ups are afraid to give JMZ the keys to the car after the Figgins debacle? It is a legit question.
|59. By: foreverrebuilding on 01-04-2013 17:10:09|
Not trying to disrespect the JAC's intent with the post or ruffle anyone's feathers in this particular thread, but it's hard to be a Mariners fan and not have lofty, quixotic dreams of finally having big bats in Seattle again. So, I thought I'd throw out something (regrettably not knowing Miami or Arizona's farm system well enough to make it nuanced fit every need):
Seattle gets: Stanton, Upton
Miami gets: Walker, Paxton, Montero/Seager, Franklin, Saunders, Wilhelmson
Arizona gets: Hultzen, Maurer, Capps
|60. By: Galway on 01-04-2013 17:10:27|
As someone else said don't be lazy do your homework.
Zuninio is not currently eligible to be traded under MLB rules.
Miami actually has a young catcher in waiting.
If you traded a catcher more likely to b Montero and that would involve Montero and three way deal perhaps with a Tampa.
Miami needs someone to take Nolacoscos 11.5 million salary, top line pitching, 3B, 2B, and an outfielder. Their bullpen kinda suxks as well. Outside of their catcher they do not much that is near MLB ready.
|61. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 17:11:10|
I doubt that it has anything to do with Figgins. If they didn't trust his decisions, they'd fire him and find someone else. It's that simple.
|62. By: masonb on 01-04-2013 17:14:28|
I nominate your post for dumbest ever on PI. Wow
|63. By: rotoenquire on 01-04-2013 17:24:29|
I think the M's have the best chance to get Upton if the reports are true. The M's would be willing to have Franklin in a deal.
Hultzen a top pitching prospect is a large key. But Franklin is what they would really covet to replace a temporary player like Pennington. Romero gives them an option at secondbase as Hill grows older down the line.
Texas is unwilling to give up Profar or Andrus and that is why the M's have the best chance.
|64. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 17:35:37|
Sorry Galway, if you were referring to my post #57, in your post #60, apparently I should have been more specific.
There would be no deal with the Marlins, UNTIL Zunino could be included. At the moment, no other Mariner prospect is intereting enough or would have at least a reasonable return for giving up Stanton.
|65. By: Galway on 01-04-2013 17:44:11|
But catcher is one of the ONLY positions they have a warm body. No DH in the NL. 3b and pitching is totally bare in their system at upper levels. Walker is a natural target and may have more value due to their need.
|66. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-04-2013 18:04:15|
I've read everyones' opinion on this and I believe that the Mariners have a chance to do something special, right now.
They could conceivably acquire Upton and Stanton for easy yes overpays and then re-sign them to ridiculously long deals immediately. It took GMZ 4 years to build an awesome farm system, which means if he left it barren after the two trades, he would rebuild it before Stanton and Upton would be traded or FAs, even without the extensions, worst case.
If they sign the extensions, combined with a Felix extension, you'd have your core guys to build around. Also these guys in town, would make signing free agents easier.
The Mariners have so much talent in the minors right now, that most guys ranked 10-20 in the system wouldn't be included in the deal and would soon be top tier talent, just by development and waiting.
In case you didn't see the Stanton tweet about the Blue Jays and Marlins trade, a few days before he was at Dexter Fowlers wedding and gave a shout out on his twitter account to Justin Upton, and the other handful of ball players at the wedding. My guess is that if we had Upton and then got Stanton, they'd probably jump at the chance to stay on the same team for the better part of the next decade.
|67. By: Rudolf on 01-04-2013 18:26:00|
As Snoop Doggy Dogg said, ^ "Because this types of s--t happens e-ver-y day."
What nintendo world are you guys living in?
|68. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-04-2013 18:26:37|
While Stanton is a generational player, there are few teams that can pay, as Jason stated. Then take into context team construction, timing, future payroll, and the list gets shorter and shorter.
No matter what, Stanton is going through the arbitration process without an extension and without Super 2 status. Meaning he'll get paid about 40%, 60%, and 80% for his three arbitration years. Which means the Marlins only have to be compensated for 220% of his single-season estimated value. If he's a 6 WAR player x 4 seasons, that means he's going to be worth about 24 WAR before Free Agency. If you take away the 10.8 WAR that the arb. process will award him over the three years following the 2013 season, the Marlins will need 13.2 WAR x $5.5M/WAR approximately, which equals $72.6M in tradeable value. An overpay would be something like $85M in prospect value.
While some will think he could be a 10 WAR player, they'd be wrong. While some think he'll get lots of injuries like the one this year because of his football history and enormous size, they'd probably be wrong as well.
The truth is that he's going to float between a 5-8 WAR player every year. Felix is as special as they come and he's a 6 WAR player no matter how you slice it. Stanton is never going to be a "walks" machine and this should be considered in assessing his potentional WAR. Giancarlo also won't add a ton of value on the bases, especially as he gets older, and his defense has already peaked by now.
So let's be realistic about his value. He's going to maybe have 1 or 2 8-10 WAR seasons, but those will be after his control years when he's 27-30 years old and that doesn't have anything to do with this discussion.
Holding onto Stanton has risks as well for Miami. If he stays on the Marlins, he'll probably be pitched around most of the year and will see his number come down to where he's only worth 5 or 6 WAR over a full season. Giancarlo could also get hurt again which would be two years in a row and hurt his value even more. There's also the possibility that he'll get exposed, since he's put up high strikeout numbers and has had very pedestrian contact rates.
The point being that he'll probably garner more trade interest than any other player in history, he'll probably be traded for more than any other player has been traded for, but I think it will be less than most assume. For what it's worth, I think he's a beast that will put up Pujols type numbers with extra power to go with a lower overall average. Maybe a career slash of .290/.370/.600, which would make him worth every penny Jack is going to have to pay to acquire him from the Marlins.
|69. By: Alpha Blu on 01-04-2013 18:32:07|
There is NO way the Mariners empty the cupboard for Stanton AND Upton. Destroying the farm system for two players, even once-in-a-lifetime talents like Stanton and All-Stars like Upton isn't something I believe Z would consider. We'd have too many holes to fill and no remaining assets they could use to fill said holes. When thinking about potential acquisitions, try to apply logic to your thought process. I know it's hard when you're drooling over a monster like Stanton, but that Stanton/Upton proposal is ridiculous.
|70. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-04-2013 18:53:36|
Justin Upton and Heath Bell (Mariners pay all salaries and the D-Backs keep the money from the Marlins)
Tom Wilhelmsen, Brandon Maurer, Brad Miller, John Hicks, Lucas Luetge, and Bobby LaFromboise
Wilhelmsen would take over for Putz in a year and still be earning the minimum to close. Towers over values the bullpen and this would look like a golden goose to him. He's also a local kid who despite being under team control for his bes 5 years, age 29-33, could keep signing team friendly contracts until he retires or gets traded.
Bell, could mentor the younger guys, while taking the pressure off the 21 and 22 setup guys (Capps & Pryor). He still throws around 95mph, has been very consistent over the years and had a FIP and xFIP in 2012 that says his season was more bad luck, than bad result.
Miller, gives them an option if Didi isn't ready or never becomes an every day player. He also gives them a backup plan for Hill should he leave, and a backup plan for Eaton should he not live up to expectations.
Maurer, fits exactly the kind of player Towers covets. It's why he traded a stud like Jarrod Parker for a pile of crap like Cahill. He thinks nothing matters more than park effect and a guy who is allergic to homeruns like Maurer will get him probably more excited than any other starter we could offer. Remember the crap he got for Bauer? He views players on a different level than most, which isn't to say it's correct, but it can be manipulated to benefit the Mariners. Also, Walker is too far away to help the next two years, while Hultzen and Paxton would be two more lefties to try and cram into a rotation that will need to make space for Miley, Corbin, and Skaggs in the next year.
Hicks can eventually, this year or next, replace Nieves as the backup to Montero (Miguel), and maybe even gain the lion's share of playing time as he gains experience.
Towers loves his bullpen and he's already grabbed two LH specialists, the chance to get a couple cost controlled LH bullpen arms should excite him as a nice bonus.
|71. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 18:57:40|
Galway, I don't care what warm body they have at catcher, Zunino has a good chance to be annual All-Star catcher, season after season. He's a special talent, and if I have to give up a special talent, I want guys who can also be special in return.
There is a greater chance that you can create a good pitcher, then you can to create a talent like Zunino, at a premium position.
|72. By: Edman on 01-04-2013 19:00:46|
Goodie, more Upton rosterbation.....yay.
|73. By: Alpha Blu on 01-04-2013 19:20:32|
WSChamps2014, you are hereby banned from offering up trade proposals. No way the Mariners would want Bell, especially if they have to give up additional talent to get him.
Here is a realistic example of what a hypothetical Upton trade might look like from the Mariners prospective: 1 of the 'big four' TOR prospects, 1 high upside reliever, 1 B level SP prospect, and a Brad Miller/Stefen Romero type prospect.
|74. By: Alpha Blu on 01-04-2013 19:23:19|
You have no clue how Towers values our prospects, or any other prospect for that matter. The consensus sure seems to be that he got a subpar return for Bauer, but maybe he thinks he got a steal. Regardless, pretending you're privy to his thought process is stupid. I wish Jason would pay someone to moderate these comments...
|75. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-04-2013 19:33:18|
As for the Stanton trade...
They don't need outfielders, which is good, it's the only thing we don't have to offer...
Giancarlo Stanton, Ricky Nolasco, and Jeff Mathis
Jesus Montero, Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, James Paxton, Stefen Romero, Tyler Pike (ptbnl), Mike Carp, Blake Beavan, and a lottery ticket like Guillermo Pimentel or Martin Peguero.
Montero can be stashed for a month or two in the minors, while he's taught to play 1B, then he can come up for the rest of 2013 and still have 5 more years of control after this year. He carries almost all his prospect value as a top 10 hitter, he also could split time between C and 1B when he comes up with Morrison and/or Carp depending on how things shake out there.
Carp and Morrison in the worst case could also play the corners until the kids on the farm are ready to take over, if Montero really plays himself into a 1B only type of player. However, any team that will use Brantly as a starting catcher, clearly doesn't care a ton about catching ability and is more worried about finding another way to get a good stick in the lineup.
Franklin would replace Solano while Romero would replace Polanco, both by years end.
Adding Walker, Paxton,and Pike to Fernandez, Nicolino, Heaney, and Turner, makes their potential future rotation amazing. Beavan and Henderson Alvarez just hold down the fort until the prospects arrive.
In terms of crude value, if you take my previous example and bump him to a 7 WAR player, he's only going to be worth $90M in trade value. According to
I believe it's a typo as it pertains to top 10 pitchers value, because I doubt players lose trade value when they break the top 10 list.
So let's say for argument's sake
Walker's worth $25.2M
Paxton would check in at $15.9 or $12.1M, we'll average the two and say $14M
Montero's worth $36.5M as he's now more proven and still has the ability to be controlled for 5 seasons and 4.5 months before free agency if he starts April and part of May in AAA learning to play some 1B.
Franklin is worth depending on your perspective between $25.1M to $23.4M averaging those two, he's worth $24.2M
Romero in my perspective is a close to a top 100 hitting prospect as you can get, if not already there, and at the minimum is a Grade B hitter, so we'll average the two ($12.5M and 5.5M), I could even make a pretty good argument that Romero did better than Olt, while being 3 months younger at the same level, and without the contact issues. So maybe he should be rated in the top 50-75, atleast. But for now we'll say he's worth $9M.
We'll say Pike is a grade B pitching prospect which is worth $7.3M.
Consider Beavan and the lottery ticket (Pimentel or Peguero) to be worth the on-field value of Nolasco and Mathis (a third catcher and place holder for Zunino).
Now let's minus the contracts of a below replacement level catcher earning $1.5M for the next 3 years, and a 1 WAR pitcher earning $11.5M.
That means $16M that the Mariners will be eating for the Marlins, aside from the compensation for Stanton's true value after projected salary. Consider the $16M in bad contracts to be to cover if he goes nuclear and starts putting up 9-10 WAR seasons, they still get to feel like they won the deal. Remember that for every 2 WAR he's worth more than my projections, the Mariners would only have to compensate for 1.1 of the 2 WAR, because of arbitration absorbing the difference.
We would be trading $116.2M in prospect value plus $16M in assumed salary debt for an approximate $90M in excess Stanton value. That would be such an overpay that the Marlins wouldn't care that Montero, Carp, and Beavan are the only guys to make the opening day roster. Remember also that Carp's value hasn't even been considered, so that's a bonus too.
|76. By: foreverrebuilding on 01-04-2013 19:39:33|
Granted, masonb, it could have been one of the most unrealistic trades to imagine coming to fruition, but it wasnít the dumbest. Iím not saying that I would do it if I were JZ Ė far from it Ė but I did apply logic to it, Alpha Blu.
The Mariners have been saying they will make a big move ďwhen the time is rightĒ for a couple of years now, and that hasnít happened. It might make the most baseball sense to hold pat for another year and let the young guys come into their own and (hopefully) realize their potential, but the fan baseís discontent with the Mariners is pretty alarming Ė what was that stat again, they have lost a higher percentage of their ticket sales over the past decade than any professional sports team in North America? Clearly they need to revitalize their image and get fans excited about the team again, especially if there is any credence to the owner(s) thinking about selling.
The Mariners canít sign a big name bat without a drastic overpay, and I donít see them blowing another teamís offer out of the water, especially with payroll on the decline. Hopefully Seattle will be a more appealing destination once the team improves and there are some bats that will be attractive to free agents, but something needs to happen for us to get there.
I imagine that Ethier would either come at the cost of a high salary or, if the Dodgers were to throw in a significant amount of cash, a top prospect. I clearly donít know as much as you guys, but trading for a below-average fielder, canít-hit-lefties, 30+ year old to put in the outfield for the next 4-5 years doesnít sound like the right move, especially if we lose someone like Paxton.
Trading for Stanton and Upton, if even possible, would push our farm system to the complete opposite end of the spectrum, and leave some major holes for the future. If Montero were to be included instead of Seager, thatís a lineup spot that could be filled by what we have right now. If Franklin is, in fact, more of a second basemen than a SS, heís blocked by Ackley, and we would retain Miller for future SS needs. Saunders leaving would mean that Guti or Wells (or both) would have to play center full time, which would be doable. Capps could step into the closing role extremely early, or someone could be found as a stopgap. Future pitching options would become extremely thin, but luckily itís easier to attract free agent pitchers to Seattle than hitters.
So yes, it would deplete the farm system, but it would also bring in two high-powered bats under club control for the next 3-4 years, and there would still be some flexibility in the budget.
Unrealistic, idealistic, rash, and high-risk, yes. Dumbest post of all time and without logic, no.
|77. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-04-2013 19:40:00|
Alpha Blu, read the interview done with Kevin Towers, I did, and that's where I got my information. Because you are too lazy to look it up, doesn't mean it's not available. It's been stated numerous times that the Rangers and Mariners both value power more than speed, this is not opinion, it's fact and it's based on research, there were interviews with Daniels and Zduriencik stating as much, just last month. There was also an interview around that time with Towers, explaining why he threw away a top 10 pitching prospect for a younger version of Derek Lowe (Cahill). I promise you, I'm not psychic, just literate and addicted to baseball. One last thing, do you really think all people are equal? Just because you don't understand something, doesn't mean others won't. It's not like you are Stephen Hawking.
Edman, read it, you said YOU WANTED thoguhtful process, not just names thrown at paper like paint. Trust me, it's been thought out. So when you say you just want people to think about what they suggest, don't sh*t on a person for doing just what you asked. It's why everyone thinks you're a tool.
|78. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-04-2013 19:48:14|
Alpha Blu, taking on Bell would be insulating the young guys from over-exposure, maximizes Wilhelmsen's value, and Bell lowers return, I'm not adding to what the Diamondbacks would receive for Upton, taking Bell lowers it, if you didn't know that, you should be banned from commenting.
Another point, Towers destroyed his awesome farm system to add a bunch of bullpen arms and crap. Look at what he trades and what he gets in return, then you know his thinking. He obviously saw LH relief as a need see Reynolds and Sipp trades. He obviously likes up the middle players as he thinks Eaton and Didi are the greatest thing ever. He loves the bullpen as he traded Mark Reynolds and a handful of other solid players and prospects for relivers like David Hernandez, the previously meantioned LH relievers, Breslow, and others. He is in love with making bullpen improvements, he's quoted as saying that he thinks the bullpen is the most under-valued part of the game today.
|79. By: dewey on 01-04-2013 19:59:35|
Edman how the hell do you know Zunino has a good chance to be a consistent allstar? No one knows that he had a very good 2 months up to 2A and thats it.All the hype and all the other stuff is just that i hope the guy catches ten years for us and makes a allstar team are two but there isnt no guarentees on any prospect . I just looked up Walkers stats from this year thats as far from dominating as you get 7-10 with 4.68 ERA barely over a strikeout per inning not saying he wont be great but lets not put the cart ahead of the horse boys and girls. Like i said i hope just like you hope but all of us who have watched baseball for years have heard about all of these cant miss guys who miss good luck to all of the Mariner prospects and may you all be stars.
|80. By: Rudolf on 01-04-2013 20:09:59|
WSchamps2014 is rosterbatorextraordinaire. He's back!
|81. By: Rudolf on 01-04-2013 20:11:10|
This chatroom has gone to hell in a hurry. Ha ha ha...
|82. By: Galway on 01-04-2013 20:33:26|
Well takeaway is their are still many options post Hamilton and no one knows what if any possibility will come to fruition. So don't print Stanton jerseys or burn current M's jerseys cause nothing will happen and the team is just damne for eternity. A lot possible still and a lot of creative solutions not even considered yet so grab some popcorn and wait and see.
|83. By: Juan Valdez on 01-04-2013 20:58:31|
Edman, again, it isn't so much what you say but how you say it. I'm not trying to shut you up or stop you from being heard. But, honestly, you need to ask yourself if the current tone that you're putting out there is the best way to get your message across. At some level, I'm sure you understand this. You're obviously a smart guy.
I'll say one more thing. The problem here is that you talk down to people, which is a form of contempt. In the gamut of human emotions, there is nothing more damaging to relationships than contempt. It's an absolute killer. And yes, those of us that meet on these message boards and discuss things and interact are in a relationship(s) of sorts.
|84. By: KingFelix on 01-04-2013 20:59:37|
It looks like we are in on Upton. Would Hultzen, Franklin and Capps or Pryor get a deal done? We would have a good chance to have a good offense:
CF Gutz / Saunders
C. Montero / Jaso
RF Raul / Wells or Bay
|85. By: Alpha Blu on 01-04-2013 21:06:42|
The type of proposals being bandied about here are something I would've dreamt up when I was 10. I used to peruse the comments section for little nuggets of information from Jason or other intelligent people. While I don't mind rosterbation, perhaps it would be beneficial for the site to establish a thread or forum for it. WSChamps2014 and people like him are just polluting the site and making serious conversations impossible.
|86. By: StandinPat on 01-04-2013 21:15:22|
This thread has come completely off the rails
|87. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-04-2013 22:04:26|
Rudolf, nintendo trades?
Alpha Blu, trades you would have thought up when you were 10? What are you 12?
Let's just be clear, Toronto says hello with their 2012-2013 offseason.
If we were Toronto fans and someone suggested gutting the system to amp up the speed of competing, what would you have said?
Now say they proposed trades of haccheveria, mathis, alvarez, buck, and their best prospects for Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, #2 Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, All-Star/MVP candidate Jose Reyes, utility super-sub Bonafacio, et al. Would you have said that sounded reasonable or likely?
Has Jack not made some pretty incredible trades like for Lee and the Putz to Mets haul?
Is it really that unlikely that he would trade 9 of his top 17 prospects to guarantee he doesn't disappear? Would they need top prospects now if they had 5 years of Seager and Ackley, 4 years of Stanton, Smoak, and Saunders, 6+ years of Hultzen and Zunino, an easily re-signable SS like Ryan and a ton of controlled bench players like Wells, Andino, Mathis, and Jaso? By the time Iwakuma would be a free agent, Victor Sanchez would be ready or maybe Shipers or Fernandez, or who we take 12th in the draft this year.
Jack Zduriencik built the farm in 2 years to respectability and after 3 years it was top 10. What makes you think he needs even 4 years with guys like Sanchez, Gohara, Morban, and Gabriel Guerrero, kicking down the door in the next two seasons? Remember, he got all our top 10 prospects to sign for less than $1M out of the draft, except Hultzen and Zunino, the two guys we're keeping, but also two guys that signed for slot or less based on todays standards, as Hultzen would've taken the max offer had it been in place. The draft cap won't keep them from doing the same thing again with the next couple drafts and they have sooooo many intriguing prospects that won't be on the national radar for a couple years, but that are already making noise. We don't need to worry about stripping most of the top prospects if we are getting long term solutions.
Where is the long term problem? Morales? Okay put one of Jaso or Zunino at DH and the other at C with Zunino getting 70% of the time behind the plate. When a LHP is starting Jaso goes to the bench with Wells replacing him in the lineup. Wells becomes an OF with the guy he's replacing taking a 1/2 day off while DHing.
Remember also that dumping the farm isn't going to prevent Felix from re-signing, but trading for both Upton and Stanton could get him to re-sign and the value of Felix pitching in the northwest for 10 more years is not worth nothing. So I think any true fan of the Mariners would give up any one prospect from our system to keep Felix, think of the bonus you need to pay to get Stanton now, would be to keep Felix in Seattle. It might also save Jack Z's job.
|88. By: Lamda on 01-04-2013 23:40:03|
Does Upton really excite you guys that much? If I were the M's and i'm sending out a package of trade chips including Hultzen, Franklin, Romero I would hope to get back a heck of a lot more than Upton. My problem with him is you just can't be sure what player you are getting in the trade. Are you getting the guy with a slugging % of .530 and ops near .900 or are you getting the sl of .435 and ops of .790? One of those players for sure is worth a good haul while the other is not.
If that was the offer then i'd be more inclined to offer up another prospect or two and someone on our current roster to get Stanton.
|89. By: Juan Valdez on 01-04-2013 23:42:49|
For the record, I'm not in favor of any deal that guts our farm system for one player. I don't believe that just because our farm system is rated among the very best, that we should then trade most or all of those players away for "proven major league players".
|90. By: Juan Valdez on 01-04-2013 23:48:50|
Also, I don't like the idea of ripping apart our bullpen. The bullpen should be an area of strength this year. Remember in 2001, the bullpen was huge that year.
|91. By: Gibbo on 01-04-2013 23:53:59|
So at what price for Upton does a team say let's wait and see if Stanton is available next year. I think while we can rosterbate over Stanton, and IMO its a case of when not if he is traded... This is still at least not gong to happen until next year. So it's unlikely we get both, but would you pass on Upton at the chance to wait a year out develop your prospects more and then go all out for Stanton? So is a bird in the hand worth more than say a better one in the bush?
Obviously I would prefer Stanton, but if he isn't traded or someone offers a better deal than us then we could still be left scraping around for Ethier's or Willingham, Kubles etc.... You have to give GMZ credit for not just unloading his prospects and undoing his fine work in building the farm.
|92. By: Edman on 01-05-2013 00:02:38|
I don't care if you rosterbate, that's pretty meaningless. The harm comes when people make up these trades in their heads, assumes that what they dreamed up was entirely possible, then using against Jack, as if he failed.
I don't recall anyone correctly predict any of Jack's trades, with the exception of the legendary Dave Cameron's prediction in regard to Ryan Langerhans.
Rosterbate all you want, but understand that it has a very poor relationship to reality.
|93. By: Uncle Al on 01-05-2013 01:16:12|
It appears that the M's aren't going to give up their #12 draft pick, over pay for a FA OF'er, over pay in trade for an OF'er using prospects and are going to wait another year or more to realize the full value of their prospects. You have got to respect Zduriencik for understanding the situation he is in and adjusting to it so the whole organization doesn't get screwed. Other GM's know what Zduriencik is trying to do this year and will do everything they can to screw him. So he waits until next year where he can get full value for his prospects and can also trade prospects for prospects as other teams will have the same problem.
|94. By: Ianyo on 01-05-2013 01:19:29|
Here's a different question...
Do you guys think this team is a contender with the addition of Upton, Ethier or Stanton?
|95. By: Uncle Al on 01-05-2013 01:58:22|
Don't take my response wrong because it is a great question. The problem is that it can never happen under the existing conditions this year where the costs would damage the future too much even with acquiring the players you talk about. The conditions would totally need to change to even consider this as a possibility.
|96. By: Edman on 01-05-2013 02:25:20|
lanyo, the answer is no. The Angels added Pujois and Wilson, which didn't even get them to a wildcard spot. There is no one player that makes a team a contender. They can make the team better, but contention requires that everyone plays well.
|97. By: Gibbo on 01-05-2013 05:58:24|
It would certainly increase the chances they contend but the team would need a lot of things break their way, player improvement and a lack of injuries or breakout performances etc. As Edman says adding guys doesn't guarantee success but it certainly doesn't mean you don't do it, especially when we rank so low offensively. Having Upton and Morales in the middle of the order makes a massive difference to the lineup but you still need the other 23 players on the roster to do their part and I guess that's why they play the games.
|98. By: Ianyo on 01-05-2013 06:35:12|
You don't think they can pull an Oakland, Edman?
I guess I'm wondering your opinions on the guys they have and whether you think they'll improve enough to be a contender with the addition if one more bat.
Personally, I think the way the roster stands right now, they're a .500 club. It'd sure be great to see Ackley, Montero and Smoak show some signs of life.
|99. By: Wishhiker on 01-05-2013 08:43:37|
I think there's possibility with the current roster and adding Stanton or Upton should improve that possibility, even if only to a 5% chance. However neither player would be a 1 year acquisition. You can't ignore the difficulty in acquiring the bat you want and if the front office thinks 2014 is the year to go for it and can acquire pieces to help that future team win now, why wouldn't they?
Stanton has 4 more years. If Upton waived his no trade clause I'd expect it to be with a 4 or 5 year contract replacing his current one or an extension adding a year or two, possibly even more. In 5 years Upton will be 30, so that extension could easily be a boon for the Mariners if he pans out reasonably. Even if 2015 was that target year, both of them should be in their prime years then.
There is a lot of potential on the roster to have a Cinderella season, not that that's what I'd bet on. Some will certainly improve and if enough have gains on the previous year there's a chance to make the postseason. Especially with 2 wild cards. I don't know about winning it all, but Oakland and Baltimore didn't either, so i guess that's not what you mean.
|100. By: Gibbo on 01-05-2013 09:43:10|
For us to have a Cinderella season we would need so many things to fall our way... First off we need another bat and starter so lets say we get them, we then need this....
Ackley back to his rookie form
Montero and Saunders take a step forward
Morales and Gutierrez play like its 2009 and stay injury free
Seager doesn't regress
Smoak finds some parity between September form and every other month and can hit .260-.270 for the year
Ryan hits .250 and keeps giving us Gold Glove defence
The good thing is individually all are possible and some might say likely... The kicker is they wot ALL happen, maybe some do but they won't all. The other positive is to contend we don't need them all to happen anyway, but we probably need 5 or 6 out of the 8 above to happen plus hope the newly acquired bat actually adjusts relatively OK.
Plus SP'ing Felix, Iwakuma, Rameriz all stay heathy and maybe a breakout by Hultzen or Paxton would be nice too down the stretch.
|101. By: Ianyo on 01-05-2013 10:34:22|
I think a lot of those scenarios will happen. The ones I'm least optimistic on are Smoak and Brendan Ryan. But, neither of which will greatly affect the team, if they don't happen, IMO.
-Brendan Ryan is still above league replacement level even when he hits below .200.
-Smoak's failure again may be lessened with the acquisitions of Ibanez and Bay (Although the upside definitely isn't there.) If one of them can at least hold thier own, I think we can succeed without Smoak.
I think Seager may actually improve his AVG/OBP and have power numbers equal to last season.
|102. By: rjfrik on 01-05-2013 11:14:36|
The only trade idea I've ever floated on here was a few weeks ago when I said that if I was JZ I would trade Vargas for Morales straight up. And one full day later that is the trade he did.
So I guess I'm batting 100% and on par with Dave Cameron. Right? :)
|103. By: maqman on 01-05-2013 11:50:51|
IMO Upton is over rated and will perform much worse in Safeco. The team played over .500 the last half of last season and will do better than that in the coming season. They got a genuine MOTO bat in Kendrys Morales and got rid of Figgins, Olivo and Kawasaki and Ichiro's contract. They gave up Vargas but will have a full season of Iwakuma and Erasmo Ramirez and even Beavan won 11 games as a 22-year old. Tacoma will be strong enough this coming season to beat some big clubs. Why all the negativity? Do you think there is no chance Ackley, Smoak or Montero might hit better?
|104. By: Ianyo on 01-05-2013 11:59:39|
I think at least Montero and Ackley will improve. Smoak, I'm cautiously optimistic.
I think the addition of a Justin Upton type of hitter will do wonders if these players improve.
maqman, why do you think Upton is overrated?
|105. By: Ianyo on 01-05-2013 12:06:36|
I think at least Montero and Ackley will improve. Smoak, I'm cautiously optimistic.
I think the addition of a Justin Upton type of hitter will do wonders if these players improve.
maqman, why do you think Upton is overrated?
|106. By: Paul Martin on 01-05-2013 12:47:06|
Just what are would we be getting if we traded for Upton? He didn't have a great year last year and he would no longer get to play in Arizona, where he rakes in that desert air. Remember, even Willie Bloomquist hit well there!!! Also, offensive players usually tend to see their numbers dip when they move from the NL to the AL.
Why is Arizona so anxious to trade him? They tried last year and are at it again. It also sounds like Arizona OVER values him, and wants a ton in return.
I realize Upton is only 25, and maybe hasn't played his best ball yet. If he is unhappy in Arizona, maybe a change of scenery does him good. I just don't know the guy. Is he hungry to get better? What kind of a work ethic does he have? I realize he is signed for 3 more years at reasonable numbers, but I don't know if this is the guy I want to trade 3 or 4 of my top young prospects for or not?
Now Stanton, that is a whole different story. I bet next offseason he becomes available, and if we use our chips now for Upton we might regret it later.
Another year and our young kids will have at least tasted the majors and will be more desirable to teams like Miami. If not, we keep them and they start helping us.
If Jack gets Upton without giving up Walker or Hultzen, I guess I would be OK with it, but I am not for getting Upton at all costs.
|107. By: Galway on 01-05-2013 15:35:48|
I would not give up any of the big three for either
Would be willing to part with one of them as long as its not Walker for Upton.
Would likely have to include 2 of them w Walker being a must to start a Stanton conversation and to me would be well worth it as hitters are becoming more difficult than pitchers especially a generational talent.
|108. By: Galway on 01-05-2013 15:38:25|
If it requires more than that then letting em play out is fine as well but somwhere offense needs to be injected.
Smoak bouncing back would be great but I do wonder if he will get the ABs as this roster is constructed. Montero's upside I think is underappreciated and folks forget how young he is.
|109. By: rotoenquire on 01-05-2013 16:00:33|
3 team trade.
J. Smoak 1B (then moving Y. Alonso to the OF)
D. Hultzen SP
Mariners then sign LaRoche.
|110. By: Paul Martin on 01-05-2013 16:37:59|
Did Texas just sign Berkman for $10 million??? What a waste of money, the guy is an old washed out stiff! And I thought the Ibanez signing was an over pay!
Love seeing a division rival waste their money! Glad Seattle is smarter than that...
|111. By: Lamda on 01-05-2013 17:42:59|
lanyo - No it doesn't make them a contender next year but it gets them a whole lot closer to being one. If we wait with what we got now we could be waiting a long time. If we trade for Upton i'll hope for the best but am far more worried about him than I would be Stanton. Per your question though - we could trade for one of these guys and then sign Bourn. Then assuming some of our younger players rebound from last year and our offense would then be in a pretty good position. Then, oddly, we'd be talking about our pitching not being up to par.
|112. By: Alpha Blu on 01-05-2013 22:32:00|
If you must know, WSChamps2014, I'm 23. You are assuming that guys like Julio Morban and Gabriel Guerrero and Luiz Gohara are going to become top prospects. These up-and-comers you cite are undoubtedly filled with potential, but lots can happen next year or in the next 3-4 years to derail young prospects, especially ones like Gohara who is 17 and has never even tasted pro ball.
You can't simply trade away the upper tier of your farm system based on the assumption that equally heralded/valued prospects are going to rise in their wake.
Rotoenquire, there is no chance Yonder Alonso moves to the outfield, especially at a cavernous park like Petco.
|113. By: Alpha Blu on 01-05-2013 22:32:54|
Edit on Gohara: meant to say full season ball
|114. By: Uncle Al on 01-05-2013 22:48:21|
The M's have $76.5M committed on this years budget including the Contingency Fund for a $100M budget for 2013. The Morales for Vargas trade was a gift that fell into Zdurienciks lap but will end up in a trade for Morales sometime later this year. Ibanez was putting their fall back plan into place in case they can't get anything else done to start the season. The M's can't get it done this year if you listen to what Zduriencik has been saying as conditions just aren't right for him. Bringing in Upton and Bourn sticks you with two questionable guys with questionable contracts, looses you the #12 draft pick this year, blows the whole budget for this year and coming years, blows up the farm system, and doesn't allow Zduriencik the time to try and make the team better in the future without wasting the four years that have already been invested. The current situation dictates that the M's need at least another year for the prospects to reach maximum value and be able to use them for trades. People have got to understand that just because you want it done today, doesn't mean it can be done today.
|115. By: Lamda on 01-06-2013 00:06:55|
Agreed for the most part - I don't advocate trading for Upton as I think he's too big of a risk. Stanton is the only one i'd mortgage the farm for as he'll be running the league in 2-3 years hitting-wise. Its a double-edged sword - you can't trade 'everything' away but you also can't assume 'everything' will develop into something. 10 or so years ago Gillick refused to trade and they all amounted to nothing whereas a decent trade might have made the difference of us being in the WS. I agree that waiting another year or so would probably help us out a good deal towards trading for Stanton - the job of Z is to gague just how serious they are about trading him. If it seems like he's going to be moved now then you gotta bite the bullet and do it - if not, then by all means wait.
|116. By: Uncle Al on 01-06-2013 01:21:38|
Sickel's just came out with 43 names of prospects and it is impressive. Rick Randall came out with his Top 50. Jason is about to finish his new Top 50, Cameron is finally going to do a Top 40 again, and there are others. I really look forward to putting Churchill's list next to Sickel's and comparing the two. There are so many prospects with potential in the farm system and I don't say this as a "Homer". There's just a lot of talent there. Some will fail and fade into the sunset but others will flourish and need an additional year. If conditions change, Zduriencik will get as much done this year as he can but don't hope for miracles as he doesn't have much to work with right now that he can trade that's anywhere near maximum value.
|117. By: titans12 on 01-06-2013 08:16:44|
Upton is not a huge risk. He is a great player with all the tools. What this team needs now is a # 3 hitter that plays in the OF.With the addition of Morales the rest of these young hitters would benefit big time.Some sort of combination of Upton,Morales,Montero,Smoak etc. is not easy for a pitcher to navigate through.I have been involved with the construction at Safeco with the new fences and it is going to make alot of difference to the offense.I think Upton is the perfect hitter to bring in here and I would let them have any one of the big 4 and add a couple more prospects. Walker/Capps/Romero/Hicks may get it done. You still have Hultzen who I think will have the best pro career of all of them.Just dont think Upton would want to come here.
|118. By: Panhead55 on 01-06-2013 08:50:38|
Alpha Blu. I agree with WSChamps in regards to the depth of the farm system. There are no guarantees that Morban, Guerrero, or Gohara take the next steps and become top prospects, but there are so many other deep prospects who have potential. The strength of Z both in Milwaukee and Seattle has been in scouting, finding, and developing young talent. I have absolutely no problem with overpaying a bit in prospects to acquire major league talent. I have full confidence that Z can replenish the farm in short order should we choose to spend some of our young assets. Hanging onto prospects too long is just as risky as trading them away.
|119. By: rjfrik on 01-06-2013 11:00:49|
There's a reason JZ is hesitant to trade away a bunch of prospects for guys like Either and Upton and that's because he realizes just how special his farm system is and how many good players it has and I believe he truly believes that a lot of our problems can be solved internally.
As of right now, I believe the M's have a top 3 system and after this next year it will be the best system in all of baseball.
As Jon Sickels says, "Overall, despite player development issues that need to be looked at, this is clearly one of the deepest, richest farm organizations in baseball."
This is the first time I can ever remember the M's top ten all being at least a B level prospect and there are 24 prospects who are C+ or better. THAT IS UNREAL!!!! 24 Prospects. Wow.
The farm is truly loaded and after another year of player progression and development with prospects moving up the ladder, I think we will have the best farm in baseball and the best in the history of the M's. Extremely deep. Extremely.
|120. By: maqman on 01-06-2013 11:12:22|
Ianyo you asked why I think Upton is overrated. I just don't think he can possibly do as well in Safeco as he has done in Arizona and he hasn't done all that well there some years, including the last year. He might be an All Star in Arizona but in Seattle he will be a good above average player but not much more. I'd take Smoak, Ackley or Montero over him myself but I understand not many others would. Add to that the cost in prospects to obtain him (any one of which may end up being more valuable than him within two years) and the payroll cost to keep him and the fact he has it in his contract that the doesn't want to come here and his present team has been trying to trade him for at least two years and that's a whole lot of red flags to me. There are too many players of equal or superior value that we can work at trading for with more surety. I would be willing to pay more to extend Kendrys Morales for 3 or 4 years, he's a better value IMO.
Now Stanton I'm okay with, I can guess his cost (we might have to send the Mariners to Miami but they would probably ask for Tacoma instead) but I see superior value there justifying a similar cost.
|121. By: Edman on 01-06-2013 12:22:00|
titans, you may think that Upton is a great player, but I don't. I think he's a good player, who can be very good at times. But, great players are consistent. They play well year in and year out. Upton hasn't yet become a great player. He's been too inconsistent. Those that support him as a great player, tend to look back and point to hot periods of time. When he gets off his roller-coaster and is the same player, year after year, we'll know which he is. Until then, he's still a mystery.
|122. By: Panhead55 on 01-06-2013 19:06:56|
Edman, for the most part I agree with your assessment of Upton. He is not a great player, but he has the potential to be one. He has played the equivalent of 5 complete seasons over the span of 6 years. His career OPS is .832 and he steals about 20 bags a year. Now let's couple that with the fact that he just turned 25 last August. Now I ask, is it reasonable to expect a player aged 19-24 to display much consistency? Injuries aside, the early years are also filled with the normal adjustment period.
In acquiring Upton, you don't pay for a great player, but you do pay for a good player with the potential to be great.
|123. By: dewey on 01-06-2013 19:25:43|
I just cant wait tio be 62-90 and say Smoak Ackley aqmd Mo0mtero will be ready nexy uear????? Sounds like a dead broken record to me?? I have read how awful Upton is he is 1 1/2 years younger then SMOAK AND ACTUALLY DID SOMETHING AND 1/2 Year younger then Ackley and produced im sick of the future what about RIGH FUCKING NOW? Im tired of the 5-8 yearr plan how about some results ive sat here for 5 years and listened to all the hype prospects and b uilding from with in we got crap at the ML. Level and we will finish in 4th ahead of Houdton and still suck tell me when i can get excited i think the time is now...
|124. By: Edman on 01-06-2013 19:41:20|
dewey, there is nothing to respond to, since all you are doing is venting, so I'll leave it at what it is. However, I am speaking for myself, but those who feel the need to use the word "fuck" in their rants lose all my respect. It's a tool used by those who cannot make a rational statement, so they use it for shock value. That doesn't speak well for the points you are trying to raise. It only sets a negative tone. But, carry on if you think it adds value.
|125. By: Paul Martin on 01-06-2013 19:57:43|
SEAHAWKS WIN!!! I lost my Sonics, and my Mariners are only interesting on days Felix pitches, but thank God for the Hawks!!!
|126. By: Uncle Al on 01-06-2013 23:23:38|
Nice rant but you totally ignored or don't understand why things are this way and a little more time is necessary. The majority of the problem ocured during the Bavasi years and directly affects the situation we are in today. Zduriencik is out of trade chips at the ML level except for maybe Kelley or Wilhelmsen and the price for prospects isn't very good this year. They got lucky and realized full value on Vargas for Morales trade but created another hole and need another SP. Now is not the time to panic and do something really stupid like make another Bedard like trade. The whole problem is that the M's were left with almost nothing at the ML level unlike most other ML teams so Zduriencik had to start at the bottom and build from the ground up. He's only been here four years and has done a fantastic job with the farm system and we can sure as hell wait one more year and see what he can do when he has a little more to work with.
|127. By: maqman on 01-07-2013 10:47:29|
Amen Uncle Al.
|128. By: Mackie on 01-07-2013 11:09:14|
My thought is that if our farm gets to be the best in baseball, or nearly the best, it becomes an area of strength. Teams often make trades from their areas of strength. So next winter, I'd like to see some more aggressive moves by the front office, maybe actually including trades of some of the prospects... because if the farm is that strong, it will stay strong even if a couple of good kids are traded.
As #118 said:
"Hanging onto prospects too long is just as risky as trading them away."
I can see how more of the kids might have more value on the trade market once they have had some major league experience. As much as I want the M's to make some moves to bring in some more talented and high-impact players yesterday, I also want to see what some of the kids can do.
So one more year? My patience with the M's is about done, but I've been a fan for so many years now, what difference does one more year make? 8-) Let's see what some more of the kids can do in 2013, and see some of them get that major league exposure that might give them more value.
Then next winter, when the farm has been built up even more through player development and through what will undoubtedly be a good draft in June, let's see the front office work to finish the puzzle by making some aggressive moves to bring in the kinds of players who can actually have the kind of impact that will move the team to the next level. And if it means trading some of the kids, so be it.
We aren't close yet, but we're getting closer.
|129. By: rjfrik on 01-07-2013 12:39:39|
I can say this: You will be rewarded by having the patience to go through one more rebuilding year and that M's fans will be pleasantly surprised at how much young fantastic talent the M's will have this time next year.
Our top 6 prospects are all high minor league guys, so those guys will have graduated to the show, are about to graduate to the show or knocking on the door in AAA. Another 10 of our top prospects will be promoted to the higher levels, AA and AAA, and will see their value go up immensely. And those babies that are down in instructional league will all have moved up into A ball and see their value double (remember Campos).
And I'm not even mentioning the Sophomore and Junior campaigns of all the young guys on the current big league club.
Next off season is the season where you should see a flurry of activity from JZ, he will have had a good three years to see most of his young talent on the big league club and most of his prized top ten prospects will have added value to their profiles. He then can start dealing from a position of strength.
|130. By: Uncle Al on 01-07-2013 12:49:50|
The M's have $76.5M committed on this years budget including the Contingency Fund for a $100M budget for 2013 they have nearly $27M in payroll coming off the books for 2014. Perez for $1.5M, Figgins for $8M, Ibanez for $2.75M, Guiterrez for $7M, $800K in Pro-rated Bonuses. Also the possibility of Morales for around $5M and and Ryan for $2.5M. If these guys were replaced from in house, the cost is a $2.5M increase from the $27M additional they'd have to spend for 2014. This is another reason for not plugging up the roster with shit contracts this year and in the future. That leaves them with only $52M in commitments including the Contingency Fund for 2014. That leaves Zduriencik about $48M of payroll to work with for 2014 in FA and in trades. If you don't tie his hands behind his back, that gives him a lot of fire power to get things done between now and the 2014 season. Leave him and his people alone to do their jobs. They aren't idiots.
|131. By: Galway on 01-07-2013 12:49:54|
I agree with the farm being one of the best right now and being patient. Its a risk holding em if they don't develop they lose value and a risk to trade if they develop elsewhere. The key for me is the reward, if its a generational type talent cashing in chips can be worth it but otherwise unless reward is great there is solid talent here. There isn't just one way to do it. Being dogmatic and holding em for the sake of holding is a mistake and chasing every free agent etc.. because something HAS to be done.
|132. By: Galway on 01-07-2013 12:54:47|
I liked the approach of targeting Hamilton as a big bat but not going insane. Took a shot but did not lose discipline. Opportunistically adding Morales and looking at very high reward trade targets is a good. One pans out within the discipline great if not let the young talent develop. Either way still need a pitcher. The talent allows for flexibility to only do things within his own discipline.
|133. By: Panhead55 on 01-07-2013 13:55:35|
"Hanging onto prospects too long is just as risky as trading them away."
Prospects are just that, prospects. They have their greatest trade value either after a cup of coffee or just before being called up. In 2003 the Ms had four highly coveted pitching prospects in Ryan Anderson, Clint Nageotte, Rett Johnson, and Travis Blackley. The front office refused to trade their "future" to get help for the playoff push. The Ms finished 93-69, but just out of the playoffs. Of those four pitchers only Travis Blackley is still in baseball and none made an impact. We traded Freddie Garcia for to the CWS for Olivo, Morse, and Jeremy Reed. At the time Jeremy Reed was Baseball America's #2 overall prospect, not the Ms #2, but in all of baseball. How did he pan out? Justin Smoak had more trade value 3 years ago, than he does today. The promise of the prospect is similar to the siren song. The above are examples of why hanging onto prospects too long is risky. The trading of Choo and A Cabrera for the Cleveland 1B platoon of Edguardo Perez and Ben Broussard is a fine example of the risk of trading trading prospects away. I could also site Lowe and Varitek for Slocomb. It all comes down to talent evaluation.
The Ms have a top 5 farm with an argument for the best in baseball. Some of the prized prospects will not amount to anything and some lesser prospects will have fine major league careers. That's just the way it is with prospects.
The Ms should not be afraid to trade prospects "now" in the right deal. Waiting until next year will increase the value of many prospects, but others will lose value. In Baseball America had Greg Halman as their #1 Ms prospect. That was in retrospect the ideal time to trade him.
We as fans have to trust the Z will know a good deal when he sees one. If the deal makes sense then pull the propect trigger now. We know that Z has the scouts in place to rebuild the farm if necessary.
|134. By: Panhead55 on 01-07-2013 14:00:26|
In 2009 BA ranked Halman as the Ms top prospect.
|135. By: Paul Martin on 01-07-2013 14:37:42|
@133 I agree with your logic IF you are a playoff or near playoff team. Trading a bunch of prospects for Upton, Eithier, or a starter isn't going to make Seattle a playoff team next year.
Yes the team needs to improve, and I would have loved to sign Greinke, Hamilton, and Swisher or trade a boat load of prospects for a player like Wil Myers or Stanton from Miami, but it just didn't happen.
Jack is trying to pull off a deal to upgrade the offense and get more starting pitching, but he isn't desperate like Bavasi was.
I am hoping we get Felix locked up this year and add a couple more pieces via free agency (Joe Saunders maybe?) and trade (Capano maybe?). Then we let the young pitchers get their feet wet in the big leagues, give guys like Gutierrez, Smoak, and Wells one last chance to prove themselves, and look to be sellers at the trade deadline.
The M's aren't winning anything next year anyway. In the meantime I have my Seahawks to root for. GO HAWKS!!!
|136. By: Panhead55 on 01-07-2013 15:00:04|
Paul, are you suggesting that we are not a contender in 2014? It will be pretty tough to make all the necessary changes next year to compete in 2014. If the opportunity avails itself to add a quality player, who will be under contract for another 3 or 4 years, for a fair package of prospects, then we should strike now. If we want to contend in 2014, it is not too early to add pieces now. There is no guarantee as to who will be available next winter.
Adding another quality piece now will help rebuild the fan base, and will give Felix more reason to sign an extension.
|137. By: rjfrik on 01-07-2013 15:35:56|
Panhead, while the reasoning you stated is sound. It's all about evaluation and some time you lose out from holding onto your prospects and sometimes you lose out by trading away your prospects. I'm not sure that bringing up Halman is relevant in the argument.
Halman being replaced from being a top prospect was not because of his ability or lack there of on the field. It was because he was murdered and is no longer living. I feel like you could have found a better example for your statement.
|138. By: Gibbo on 01-07-2013 15:39:04|
Panhead is spot on with that last comment - Adding another quality piece now will help rebuild the fan base, and will give Felix more reason to sign an extension.
If we wait it out (which I am not totally against doing), then that puts a huge amount of pressure on the next offseason to get the right player signed or deal done. The Greg Halman example is a good one and shows the quality of our farm has changed too. I think Jack is playing the offseason well so far and if the right deal presents itself he will strike.
Currently we need a lot to go right to compete this year but adding 2 or 3 more quality pieces to the roster and we can easily compete with a pretty balanced roster for this year with guys to deal at the trade deadline potentially finishing at 80-88 wins and you are winning the fans back and increase the chance of a Felix extension.
I still wouldnt be surprised to see us sign Bourn, at the moment his market is pretty non existant so if he came in cheap enough then I would go get him, I think we should exploit areas in the market where we can
|139. By: Panhead55 on 01-07-2013 15:54:35|
Wrong fjfnik. Halman was ranked #1 by BA going into the 2009 season. he was ranked #8 going into the 2010 season. Going into the 2011 season he had fallen out of our top ten, yet he waas still prospect eligible with only 121 plate appearances. He was murdered in November of 2011. Not meaning to sound crass, but his prospect status had fallen long before he was murdered.
|140. By: Edman on 01-07-2013 16:09:12|
Winning will help draw fans faster than adding a quality player. It only works if said player helps the team win. Unless you have a bonefide superstar player with drawing power, it's pretty much has little effect on fans returning.
|141. By: Panhead55 on 01-07-2013 16:15:27|
Winning comes from having better players or players that play better. Are you willing to bet the farm on just our existing players playing better? I think we need a combination of both to start winning.
|142. By: Gibbo on 01-07-2013 16:23:04|
@ Edman - yep and the better the players the more wins so we are advocating aquiring talent that wins more games and drwas more fans. At the moment if we replaced guys like Noesi and Bay with Upton and Capuano you win more games. Not saying they are the 2 to add just saying we need more talent that helps us win more games.
|143. By: Galway on 01-07-2013 16:35:29|
Panhead thanks for making my point way more eleqouently than I did.
I agree 100% the answer is likely a combo of the approaches.
|144. By: Edman on 01-07-2013 17:22:47|
Last time I looked, it's early January. I think I'll wait until Jack is finished building the team, before I'll waste time and energy worrying about next year's team.
I want Jack to make smart decisions, not any particular type of decision. I'm sure he's fully aware of what he needs, but is not going to overpay to get it.
|145. By: rotoenquire on 01-07-2013 18:28:15|
Everyone also needs to consider that right now Prospects are being downgraded in trade value. Atleast that what a lot of the experts are saying. And I really agree with it. Teams like potential and stocking up on it, but nothign can beat a proven player. I think that is why deals have been slowing down the last few season's.
Edman the point of this site is for fans to chat and speculate so deal with it please. If you dont want to deal with it don't continue the conversation. We all have heard your same talking points on this 500 million times.
|146. By: Paul Martin on 01-07-2013 18:39:47|
@136, I am not against trading prospects for pieces that will help us the next 3 or 4 years, but who do you have in mind? Upton and Eithier don't appeal to me. I would take Upton if we didn't have to give up Walker or Hultzen, but it sounds like Arizona wants A LOT for the player.
I would love to have Stanton, but he isn't going anywhere right now.
So who is your big target?
Right now letting our top young players develop and taste the big leagues might be our best move...
|147. By: titans12 on 01-07-2013 18:51:46|
Edman-nice that you have your opinion on Upton. That is the beauty of baseball we all have different opinions.At his age Upton has had great seasons and very good ones just like alot of great players they are inconsistent until 26-29.He is a 5 tool player and they wont be able to find a player as good as him in next years free agent class.I would be very happy if they trades for him and if you are not then thats ok.
|148. By: Rudolf on 01-07-2013 19:23:31|
First of all, Halman is not an example of how fast a prospect can fall. He is an example of how thin our system was when he was our prospect of the year. He was, by default, our #1 prospect. This is the situation Jack was handed.
Second, is it any profound concept to suggest the M's should trade a "fair package of prospects" for a significant offensive player who is under control for 3-4 more years? The tacit hold-up with said strategy is what guys like Towers are asking in return for the Justin Upton's of the world. If it were a "fair" request, Jack Z would have moved already. Either that or he's really patient.
If the M's cannot get a "fair" deal for an offensive upgrade, we will hopefully be watching the young core develop for another year. Because to me, that is the better option than relenquishing too much in a trade. There is hope for the team without a big bat acquisition. We can have a good team in 2014/2015 built around a stellar pitching staff and a league average offense.
|149. By: stuafoo on 01-07-2013 19:59:35|
For my first post, I will say two things:
1. I will assert my (baseball) opinions in the future.
2. Let's all learn how to use punctuation! Yay! Even for a grammar nerd, and even though it doesn't subtract from some of the excellent substance everyone has provided, this is pretty hilarious.
|150. By: Rudolf on 01-07-2013 21:24:34|
Welcome aboard! Hope your subsequent posts are better than your first.
|151. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-07-2013 21:35:00|
Put me in the section of that for which is letting the kids grow, and to not have to overpay to get quality talent in return.
A lot of of franchises know how much Seattle is over the stuck over the barrell to get a big stick in here. They all want to rake our GM over the coals by getting a haul for a player the deem expendable, except for maybe Stanton.
I give mad props to Jackie Z for sticking to his guns. He's knows the value system. Sure it's frustrating building a franchise the right way. If we had boat loads of money then it'd most likely be different. But we obviously don't, so we're forced to protect our greatest strength(farm system) and grow our own talent, and wade through shitty deals until a good one eventually lands in our lap.
|152. By: Panhead55 on 01-07-2013 22:58:27|
And if "a good one lands in our lap" this winter, do you pull the trigger? Or are you dead set on "letting the kids grow". It all comes down to trusting the competency of JZ. It sounds as though Z has left no rocks unturned. I'm sure he's had many conversations about players we've never considered. I think other GMs have enough respect for Z (did anyone respect Bavasi?) that they know they can't fleece him. If there is a good deal out there, Z will find it.
Of course maybe that deal isn't out there, in which case we hold our prospect chips.
|153. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-08-2013 02:29:07|
I really believe- with everything I've got- that Zduriencik knows VERY well the state of the fan base, and that he's doing his utmost.
When it comes to the blogosphere around this team (which has, BTW, been lauded by others as the most intelligent in all of sports), this is a very clued-in front office in general. I know they've perused Lookout Landing and U.S.S. Mariner at times, I'm pretty darn sure they've taken a gander on this site as well.
We don't have "satisfactory improvements" (as of YET) NOT because Zduriencik is trigger-shy. He knows there's a price to be paid...eventually.
And right now, I'm positive he's just WAITING for the price to come down. All the time knowing that a mis-step at THIS point could prove TOO costly.
If any of you play Hold 'Em poker, all he's doing is playing pot odds. Checking around until he has a hand he likes, worth putting chips in play.
But this off-season situation has been heavily weighted against us from the beginning. I mean, look: Very few FAs *this* year fit our particular needs.
We almost literally could not have gotten a shittier free-agent market in relation to what we want from it.
And teams with players we'd love to see in Mariner blue and green have had "The Moon" written on their price tag.
Well, paying The Moon for talent is harmful in the short AND long-term. It's why Zduriencik hasn't done it.
Couple that with the fact that free agents with the right to choose where to spend the rest of their career have clearly (and disturbingly) NOT chosen US...and it's really a whole succession of land-mine fields we're asking Zduriencik to tap-dance through.
Which is why it kind of irks me when some here just act as if it's a case of "Z's got money, Z's not doing what it takes, Z is shit as a GM".
This need to add offense was a much harder job than what it seemed on the surface. And still is.
Zduriencik is adhering to what HIS plan is...and all I'm doing is hoping he gets ENOUGH time to see it in full.
Because I do believe that hot seat IS getting hotter on him. And I can't argue completely that after five years, it shouldn't be.
Other posters here have pointed out how it's very early January. They're right. There is plenty of time, and one thing I'm DAMN sure of is: Zduriencik has spent many, many more hours thinking this through than what even we have.
We're not morons, ladies and gentlemen. But..let's not forget that neither is the man we're critiquing and in some cases, calling for his head.
Jack knows more about this than what even we will...ever. So I'm trusting him on this, even as I wince with every useful ballplayer signing elsewhere. In Z I (Still) Trust.
(I mean, what else am I gonna do? Take up crochet and limbo dancing?)
|154. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-08-2013 02:37:49|
(Sudden thought, made me chuckle: Not only are we asking Zduriencik to tap-dance through a slew of mine-fields...we're asking him to double-time it!)
I thought it was funny imagery.
Gads, I hope winter just blitzes right through this off-season. Getting that yearn for a ball-game to watch early this year.
|155. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-08-2013 07:12:49|
I kind of chuckled at it too rocketdawg. I couldn't think of a better term or way to put it myself. Nice write up.
|156. By: ripperlv on 01-08-2013 09:12:32|
11 winning seasons since 1977. Be patient. I'm still a fan, I'm still patient. Want to see impatient, go look at Yankee or Red Sox fans. JZ hasn't had enought time - I agree, but need to see some some results pretty soon - been here since Oct. 2008. He's done a great job of building minor leaguers. Unfortunately, that doesn' do much for me, but does make for good reading. And a base for building the patient team. I believe that JZ deserves more time and therefore more patience. I think I told Edman I'd give it til the end of Jan. I really think I'm willing to go another year. That is my breaking point until I expect to see a team that will compete for the division. That will be the end of my patience.
|157. By: Paul Martin on 01-08-2013 09:24:07|
With Adam LaRoche just resigning with the Nationals, I don't want to hear ANY talk about Seattle trading for Mike Morse. We already have Morales and Smoke at first base and the DH position is all clogged up with Morales, Jaso, Montero, and Ibanez (not even counting Carp who will likely get cut or traded).
Mike Morse can't play the outfield either.
No Mike Morse talk please!!!
|158. By: Edman on 01-08-2013 09:38:44|
Paul, next time you criticize what I say and do, you might want to reflect back on post #157.
|159. By: Paul Martin on 01-08-2013 09:52:56|
Edman, you have a lot of critics on this sight (and rightfully so). I got a good laugh reading the comments directed to you, but none of them were made by me. Not sure where you are going with this...
|160. By: Gibbo on 01-08-2013 10:01:21|
Rocketdawg made the comment about this being one of the shittier free agent years, which is true and next year is not much better. It seems to be especially with hitters that most of the good talent is getting locked up long term, unless you are a Boras client. Interesting how Boras clients this year Soriano and Bourn don't seem to have any desperate suitors and in Sorianos case it looks like he will have to take less that what the qualifying offer was. How a reliever could turn down $13M is quite amazing really.
Re Morse, I think if we didn't have Kendry it could easily of happened, but now that ship has sailed unless they plan to have a bench full of 1B/DH replacements.
|161. By: Galway on 01-08-2013 10:18:40|
I like Morse in isolation but not in context of Smoak, Ibanez, Morales, etc...
Rather trade for a true outfielder and a higher ceiling.
If the ceiling isn't dramatically high to me I'd rather hold our prospects. Ethier is a better fit and I don't mind the cash but again wouldn't trade one of big 3 for him.
|162. By: Gibbo on 01-08-2013 10:38:45|
Agreed, of the guys left out there Ethier and Upton both at the right price in a trade interest me. I still like Bourn but only on a smaller deal as I still don't see a true lead off hitter on this team. Ackley needs to drop down in the order so he can just focus on doing his thing without the extra pressure of setting the table for the middle of the order.
|163. By: Edman on 01-08-2013 10:42:59|
Juat a point, Paul, that most people say things in a similar tone as I do, but they think it's okay for them, but not for me.
|164. By: rjfrik on 01-08-2013 10:45:58|
JZ won't go after Morse. There is no reason to. He doesn't fit at all on this club. No room for him.
We will sign a starting left handed pitcher before the season and if the price comes down on Upton, which I think it will, kick the tires on that trade again.
Arizona really doesn't want Upton at all and they really would love to move him before Spring Training so they can avoid the locker room headache that he would bring, according to reports I've read.
As of now they are asking for the moon for him, but as the time to report to camp draws nearer, that price will go down considerably. I could see the M's getting him for a package of: (One of Hultzen or Paxton) + (One of Romero or Franklin) + throw in player. And frankly, the way JZ wheels and deals, he might get him for cheaper then that.
|165. By: rjfrik on 01-08-2013 10:46:44|
About Halman, I thought he passed away in 2010. Sorry.
|166. By: maqman on 01-08-2013 11:25:54|
I don't wish to be contentious but it seems to me a lot of people are knocking the M's as they currently are and I just believe they are better than they are being given credit for. They played over .500 the last half of last season. They added by subtracting Figgins, Olivo and Kawasaki, unloaded Ichiro's bloated contract and added Kendrys Morales, a legitimate MOTO bat. Not many seem to want to give Z credit for that deal. Lost Vargas, right, but we get a full season of Iwakuma and Erasmo Ramirez most likely and we have some seriously legitimate arms near to The Show. No, they will not all make the jump, but they won't all fail. I personally don't see Ackley, Smoak and Montero all failing to improve next year. Likewise I don't see Zunino, Franklin, Romero, Paxton and Hultzen all languishing in Jackson or Tacoma all season. Look at who Texas and the Angels lost off of their teams from last year as well as who they added. I don't see them much improved overall myself. The A's I respect, they should be good again. But the M's ain't chump change and they will be interesting to watch this year as is, at least to me.
And I still think Upton is overrated but I recognize he would be more effective in the Texas ballpark than in The Safe, I wouldn't mind the Angels getting him but they don't need him, but that doesn't always stop Arte.
|167. By: Edman on 01-08-2013 12:12:05|
Everyone thinks they know what it takes to be a GM. Baseball is somewhat unique in that it looks easy to do, but it's not. That anyone here thinks that they have to tell Jack not to trade for Morris is kinda funny. Of course he won't, because at the time he was thinking of Morse, he didn't have Kendry.
I could see Jack making a play for Kubel, since it appears to be somewhat a match, in that the D-backs wanted young pitching from the Orioles in exchange for Kubel. Young pitching we have. I don't like Upton enough to give up the top prospects that the D-backs expect in return. There are too many unknown factors with Upton's numbers.
|168. By: rotoenquire on 01-08-2013 12:41:52|
Morse OF Fielding is actually better than he is at 1B. He has only 2 Errors in 1867.1 innings and 409 Defensive chances and a .995 FLD% playing both LF and RF. While at 1B in 872.1 innings and 964 Defencive chances he has 6 Errors a .946 Fld%. Morse is still a legit target to play the OF and has done so most of his career. He only played in 1 game last year at 1B, 9 at DH and 105 in the OF for a playoff team. If the price is right I still think Morse is in play to be an M.
|169. By: Jerry on 01-08-2013 13:01:33|
FLD% is a TERRIBLE way to evaluate defense. Morse's problem isn't errors, it's awful range and routes. If you watch him play 1 game, it's pretty obvious. I don't think he'd be a huge upgrade over Wells.
Kubel is in the same boat. This guys are decent hitters, but their defense deficiencies offset their production significantly. As several others have niter, with Montero, Ibanez, Morales, Smoak, Bay and Jaso already on the team, we can't afford to have any more all-bat/no-D guys on the club.
|170. By: Paul Martin on 01-08-2013 13:03:52|
@168 I am not buying your Morse logic in the OF. The guy is also injury prone, dating back to his days in Seattle. How many games did he play last year? I don't think the guy would make it through half a season in the outfield without getting hurt and embarrassing himself! Good thing Jack isn't interested in him no matter how much you talk about it.
|171. By: Panhead55 on 01-08-2013 13:06:49|
Edman, you are correct in stating that there are unknown factors with Upton's numbers. He had a very nice age 21 and age 23 seasons's, but his age 22 and age 24 season's disappointed. How much of that was injury related? It is reported that Upton and manager Kirk Gibson clash at times. Are there maturity issues? I find Upton to be an intriguing target. He is young and has a high ceiling. I trust that our front office will seek out answers to those unknown factors prior to ever consumating a trade for Upton.
|172. By: Jerry on 01-08-2013 13:14:07|
I know a lot of you will hate to hear this, but I think there is a good chance the M's roster is about set.
If the price for Upton comes down (maybe Hultzen, Franklin, and a lesser guy or two), great. But that isn't all that realistic. Other than that, I don't see much else out there that makes sense.
I wouldn't be surprised to see another Millwood-type addition, a backup catcher, and maybe an interesting yet very high-risk lottery ticket player or two (Grady Sizemore is still out there).
Who knows, maybe Jack will come up with something nobody foresees. He's done it before. But I'm starting to get the impression that this is about it.
Honestly, I'm ok if that is the case. Besides Melky Cabrera, there weren't a lot of guys available that made perfect sense to me. Morales was a very solid addition, and bringing back Iwakua was a no-brainer. With a shitty free agent class, a roster full of young and unestablished players, and one of the best farm systems in baseball, being patient isn't a bad plan.
I think the M's are a .500 team right now, and they have a metric shitload of talent in AA and AAA. They will be fun to watch next year.
|173. By: FatBat on 01-08-2013 13:16:21|
Paul you know jack isn't interested in morse? Really? Give me a break. Can morse hit the ball? Then he is in play. The way I look at it morse can out hit any one on this team not named morales. And a GM is not interested? This team had like what umm everyone hit .250 or worse? God for bid we talk about it.
|174. By: rotoenquire on 01-08-2013 13:34:46|
It seems when anyone else makes a point on a player there is a group that says JackZ doesnt want him and its obvious. But when it their guy oh hell yea it makes sense. We are all talking it up and have good reasonings behind what we see could happen. Get off the high horse.
|175. By: Gibbo on 01-08-2013 14:03:17|
The way I look at it is if Morse is an upgarde over an existing player then I would take him on the proviso that it doesnt cost a lot to aquire him. If he replace Jason Bay , then this is a potential upgrade so they both come to Spring and we see what happens. But none of us know what GMZ is going to do but we all know what we think he should do.... but there is a very big difference.
I dont believe the roster is set, we can potentially stand pat with the bats we have have, but we clearly need at least one other starter to slot in at the #3 or #2 spot. Because we cant have a rotation with Noesi and Beavan as your 4/5 pitchers. My feel is that we end up with Capuano but the FO need to see what bats they can get before they finish off the pitching.
|176. By: FatBat on 01-08-2013 14:09:17|
Some times you have to give up defense for offense, you just do. You think beane was thinking defense when he put Hatteburg at first? Morse would be a nice bat for our line up, one that fits in MOTO bat. This is about making seattle a better team. Competitive. Buts in seats! Paul in case you haven't noticed we are loosing the fair weather fans in record numbers! You have tv contracts coming up next years budget to think about and you are telling everyone who they can talk about on Jason's site? It's fine to everyone to voice there opinion, ordering is not. Morse simply would come cheaper than upton or either so why not? You help seattle's offense and keep are minor league intact. For me I would not pay close to what's being asked for upton. Good player yes great no. I would love to know if markakis is available and at what price. We will see.
|177. By: ripperlv on 01-08-2013 14:14:28|
@166 maqman, you usually post decent stuff but I really can't agree with some of this: They added by subtracting Figgins, Olivo and Kawasaki, unloaded Ichiro's bloated contract and added Kendrys Morales.
They didn't add anything by subtracting players unless they are replaced by better players. Andino, while a bull nosed tuff little player that I like, really isn't much of an upgrade. Olivo might be replaced by a defensive specialist, just because Montero and Jaso aren't any better (so far) behind the plate. Don't know if that is an upgrade, but it may work out that way. Figgins no argument, except that it made room for Ibanez and it's debateable how valuable he'll be. Trading Ichiro at the end of a 10/180 contract shorty before free agency isn't really unloading, the contract was over anyways.
The gist of your post is that the young players are going to improve and other young players are charging up from the minors. I hope your right, and I hope they play like all-stars, but so far are a group of .250 and below hitters. Our pitching staff hasn't improved, and I don't think a Millwood improves the staff. Ramirez is still unproven as are the minor leaguers. Once again, I hope they perform really well, but I fail to see where the team has upgraded unless you speak in term of upside potential, that already exist. I do see a higher ceiling, room for optimism, we'll see how it works out.
|178. By: FatBat on 01-08-2013 14:20:23|
That's butt's in seats! Damn. Capuano would be nice then if Paxton or hultzen are ready they push beaven out and your rotation looks solid. Would really hate noesi in this rotation. Last year I wanted to call him up and ask " what team do you play for ?" Bad bad. With the money we have though why not go after marcum? Don't know if he would be interested but, would nice to have another solid starter rather than a millwood. And just for the record signing a pitcher to a 3 year deal doesn't block anyone. Gm's can make trades. It happens.
|179. By: Gibbo on 01-08-2013 14:40:09|
I am not opposed to Marcum as an option but he does have a history of not pitching a lot of innings and I suspect they would like a leftie rather than starting the year off with 5 RH pitchers. If we could get Marcum at the right price then I would be happy to see him sitting in the top half of our rotation. To be honest I feel like we should still aquire 2 starters, if we got say Capuano and say Marcum (or maybe Porcello) then we have a rotaion of...
Then if a Noesi(not likely), Maurer, Paxton or Hultzen force their way onto the club you can trade any of the middle starters or just wait for Marcum to get injured. You can never have too much pitching.
Really we have the money to sign Marcum, Bourn(3 year deal if you cant get any improvements from trades) and then trade for Capuano. Add Morales and Andino to the list of offseason improvements and thats a pretty decent winter.
|180. By: Uncle Al on 01-08-2013 14:48:35|
I tend to agree with Jerry that the roster may be about set this year because they can't get the few players they need without overspending or selling the farm. But I think there is a bigger issue and it has to do with what they decide to do now. I may be totally wrong on this but I believe if they make a half assed move here by not getting the exact kind of player they need for the future, Zduriencik is going to risk getting fired. I think if he can't get the few players he wants, he's better off to do nothing and continue to wait on a trade that makes sense as the conditions will change. He'll find trade partners sometime. The other thing they can't do is make a mistake now because it'll affect any other moves they might make later on. This is just a very critical point in time for the M's.
|181. By: rjfrik on 01-08-2013 14:59:25|
Exactly Uncle Al. As much as it might pain some folks, it looks as if the Ms roster is set, sans a starting left handed pitcher. If a deal pops up that is fair to JZ and fits in not only with the current team, but more importantly, the future of the team I can see JZ making a move. Otherwise, I don't see him trading away any prospects or signing any bad contracts (bourn). And I for one am fine with that.
|182. By: Gibbo on 01-08-2013 14:59:30|
Yes I do agree Al, but there is certainly more than one way to improve. I just can not believe that Z would be remotely interested in going into the year with the following starting rotation....
Noeisi or one of Paxton, Bonderman or Hultzen
That is just way to thin
|183. By: Edman on 01-08-2013 15:14:26|
I don't think it's likely to stay the same at all. There are a number of moves that could yet be made. I don't think they'll be big moves, but Jack still has moves he can make. And, there are still a good number of players looking for work.
I don't expect big moves, just sound moves.
|184. By: Gibbo on 01-08-2013 15:49:16|
Thats the key for me.... sound moves and there are still plenty of chances for that to happen, both big and small I will take any improvements.
|185. By: Uncle Al on 01-08-2013 16:44:24|
I agree the rotation you show is thin but there might be another side to this story. They just might go with Ramirez, Beavan, and Noesi this year so they know exactly what they have and knowing help is on the way. It doesn't look like they'll finish any better than 4th anyway. They can't block the roster with mediocre players this year either because it won't allow them to make moves at the trade deadline or bring up prospects later in the year. They really have to be smart about it this year.
|186. By: Gibbo on 01-08-2013 17:16:15|
yeah but if you run with thin and you get an injury or loss of form you are in a whole lot of troble and expecting one of your propsects to deliver. To be honest I can handle saying let the best guy out of Beavan, Noesi, Bonderman fight over the 5th spot but you dont want to rely on Rameriz to be the 3rd best starter in the rotation. Not that where they sit in the rotation is taht importnat now but there is room to add a guy that is cheap enough or can be dealtwhen prospects demand to be brought up so I just dont worry about blocking guys.
|187. By: Uncle Al on 01-08-2013 17:28:23|
This is where further discussion turns into nothing but nonsense. Only Zduriencik knows what he has and what he is going to do going into the season so I'm not going to waste any time arguing this with you or anyone else. I gave another side to an issue and that's it. I also don't give a shit one way or the other what he does this year because I believe he will do the best thing for the M's that he is capable of doing.
|188. By: Mackie on 01-08-2013 18:26:47|
Agreed with those who are thinking the roster is just about set. FWIW, Greg Johns was referenced in MLBTradeRumors.com as saying something to the effect that it's more likely that the M's will turn to Hultzen or Paxton as a lefty in the rotation instead of going out and getting someone else. That is fine with me, I'd rather see Hultzen walking people than see Noesi giving up dingers.
How much to pay out in dollars or talent? I'm not sure why FA CF Michael Bourn would want to come to Seattle, or if it would even be such a great idea to overpay him to come. I know I don't want them to overpay in talent for Upton, and I have a hunch they won't. The only one I would want them to give up a lot for at this point is Stanton.
Anyway, I think that after another season of all-around improvement in 2013 we're likely to see some moves next winter, and probably trades rather than FA signings because the farm will be even stronger by then. I think if the GM makes the right trades and the team gets up into the neighborhood of 90 wins in 2014, THEN the FAs will start getting interested in playing for the M's. And this could especially be true if there's new ownership and a new TV deal.
So if things go well, I'm thinking *two years* from now is when we could more realistically expect the signings of some impact FA players as final pieces in the puzzle for getting us to contention.
I believe the M's are getting closer to the point where they can trade a big bunch of kids without gutting their farm system, but I don't know that they are quite there yet. Maybe after another solid draft in June and another year of development for more of the kids it will be time to trade some of them for some veterans. And after those guys help the team get even better, THEN the FAs may want to become Mariners.
|189. By: Jerry on 01-08-2013 19:29:00|
I also think we could use another starting pitcher.
There is one guy on the trade block right now who would be a great fit: Rick Porcello. And the team needs match up really well.
The Tigers don't have room for Porcello in their rotation, and he doesn't project well (and is probably too expensive) to use as a reliever. The Tigers don't have a closer, and are kidding themselves thinking they can get by with Bruce Rondon, a guy with shaky command, no MLB experience, and only 8 IP above AA. Since the Tigers are contenders, that is a huge risk.
So....trade Wilhelmsen for Porcello.
Porcello costs more than Wilhemlsen, but he's only 24 and has three years of team control left. And he has a shot to be MUCH better with the M's. His peripheral stats are all trending in the right direction. In the past few years he's pitched far better than his ERA, and as a GB pitcher has been killed by Detroit's BRUTAL infield defense. Put him in front of the M's defense, and he would be a great candidate to break out.
The M's have Capps and Pryor, who are both good options for late relief. Plus, as a team that isn't likely to contend immediately, having a "proven closer" is less of an issue.
If I were the M's, I would make this deal, then sign someone like Jose Valverde or Brian Wilson for depth. Both should be available on 1-year deals.
Perhaps add peripheral players to the mix to spice it up a bit. Rondon would be an interesting guy to add for the M's. And the M's have guys like Carlos Triunfel and Mike Carp who are out of options.
|190. By: Panhead55 on 01-08-2013 21:42:32|
Jerry, I'm totally on board with a Porcello for Wilhelmsen swap. As you noted Porcello is a heavy ground baller and has been done a huge disservice by Detroit's awful infield defense. Also, as you note he is trending the right direction.
Let's also consider this. Most pitchers take awhile to learn their craft. Rick Porcello is 24 years old and is one month YOUNGER than Paxton. He is eleven months older than Hultzen. The big difference between the three is that Porcello has 691 major league innings under his belt. He comes with every bit of pedigree that Paxton and Hultzen have, but has had to do his learning in the major leagues. This kid is ripe for a significant breakout and our infield could help it happen. Acquiring Porcello is not a one year fix to buy time for the kids. He is a pitcher that can be an integral part of our team for years.
I love Wilhelmsen, but he is replaceable in house.
|191. By: DRWheelock on 01-08-2013 23:28:35|
Jim Callis (Executive Editor of Baseball America) ranks Seattle Mariner Farm System as NO #2 today reported by Larry Stone.
I went over to Jim Callis twitter page and read a number of his posts and came across the Angels way WAY down on the list, but the Rangers in the top 10.
|192. By: DRWheelock on 01-08-2013 23:43:08|
An aggressive package for Stanton will no doubt include a heavy package something like this:
Walker, Erasmo Ramirez, Franklin, Pryor, Capps +
Other names I can see Z moving via trade:
Saunders or Wells, Beaven, Shawn Kelley, Liddi (or Seager)
But there is still a chance after an aggressive trade for Stanton that our Farm System could drop from #2 down to #12 or #15 but it wouldn't be like starting back at #26 where Bavasi left our depleted system. Just saying.
|193. By: Edman on 01-08-2013 23:49:05|
Still gnawing on that Stanton bone, eh?
|194. By: DRWheelock on 01-08-2013 23:58:26|
Get it Done!
|195. By: Edman on 01-09-2013 00:35:15|
Wow, it's just that easy. And here I thought Jack had to have a willing trade partner and the kind of players that the team he's trading with would want. Apparently it's just a matter of Jack wanting.
|196. By: Uncle Al on 01-09-2013 04:07:13|
That's a nice little piece of information about what Greg Johns has to say.
I also think they need another pitcher and Porcello could be a good match but I'm not going to get bent all out of shape if they don't get another one either.
Zduriencik has said for some time now that he'll do whatever he can do to improve the team. He's made a few mistakes but I don't see any reason, yet, to doubt him. Even with the few mistakes, he's won quite a number of others so that I trust his judgement.
|197. By: ripperlv on 01-09-2013 04:45:48|
Edman makes more sense and sounds less brash too me each day.
|198. By: Uncle Al on 01-09-2013 05:37:55|
If he is trying, maybe there is hope for him. I'd given up a long time ago.
|199. By: rjfrik on 01-09-2013 11:31:01|
No offense DR but that trade package wouldn't even come close for Stanton.
Stanton is not getting traded this year unless Texas unloads the farm for him. And by unloading the farm I mean shipping off their top 3 or 4 prospects plus Olt.
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