Prospect Insider - M's on Chad Durbin

M's on Chad Durbin

By Jason A. Churchill

By 02-13-2011

Prospect Insider has learned that the Seattle Mariners may be closing a deal with right-hander Chad Durbin as early as Sunday night. Durbin could come in and either serve as a setup type relief arm or work for a spot in the back of the rotation.

Durbin has been holding out for a raise from the $2-plus million he made a year ago, but so far there have been no takers.

The 33-year-old right-hander made 64 appearances a year ago posting solid, yet unspectacular numbers, but can miss bats and does have experience in the rotation, including 75 big-league starts.

m\'s-on-chad-durbin

Comments
The following 13 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: shemberry on 02-13-2011 15:22:13
Would this put them out on Bonderman?

2. By: Edman on 02-13-2011 15:38:01
I doubt that it would put them out on Bonderman, unless he wants too much money and doesn't want to pitch in Seattle. I think any pitcher who wanted to revive their career, would want a one year deal in Seattle. A pitcher friendly park like Safeco is a great place to sway numbers a pitcher's way.

But as we've seen with many major leaguers, their egos and their agents come first. I can't blame Bonderman from wanting as good a contract as he can get. But, on the other side, he has to establish that he's healthy. Thought teams scout, decisions, right or wrong, too often get based on global statistics and perception.

3. By: dewey on 02-13-2011 16:02:38
Good thoughts Edman but i will play devils advocate alot of pitchers dont want to play here because we had the worst offense in baseball by along way.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-13-2011 16:30:57
It's still true -- winning games as a pitcher will make him money on the open market. Not MORE than ACTUAL good pitching, necessarily, but most PLAYERS want an opportunity to win games, as a team first. When that isn't there, it's about opportunity for specific roles and how to improve one's value.

5. By: maqman on 02-14-2011 13:33:17
His WAR last season was .3 and the year before .5, he isn't worth $2MM. Bonderman has a much better record and value.

6. By: Edman on 02-14-2011 13:47:42
Pre-injury, Bonderman, yes. Post-injury, Bonderman, not so much.

7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-14-2011 13:53:44
You do have to weight the price into the equation, however. if Durbin is willing to sign for, say, $1.5 million and is also willing to pitch in relief if he doesn't win a job as a starter (if that is even something the M's look for from him) and Bonderman wants a guaranteed roster spot and, say, $2 million plus easily attainable incentives to get him to four or five mil... I might lean Durbin here.

Bonderman wasn't awful last year, but he wasn't good, either. He could regain some command and velo, or he could get hurt again. Not really a risk Seattle should be taking for millions of dollars.

8. By: Edman on 02-14-2011 14:15:09
Sheets seemed like a great "value" guy last year. Former greatness prior to being injured, does not equal a good return on investment.

9. By: eknpdx on 02-14-2011 14:49:35
RE: Bonderman

PitchFx data seems to indicate he's dropped the 4-seamer last year for his 2-seamer. Sits at 90MPH which is in line with his career.

Slider is the one that looks like it lost 3MPH overall - BUT it started off the year in the normal range, while losing velocity around the last 1/3 of the season.

Change up is identical to previous years.

My main question is what is his ceiling if he regains that slider velocity and improves the command?

10. By: Edman on 02-14-2011 15:43:38
Bonderman was one of those guys with high expecations, who never quite reached them. He's a decent starting pitcher when healthy, but I don't see him as any better than a #3 starter.

11. By: Edman on 02-14-2011 15:45:43
#9, also 90 MPH only accounts for velocity, not pitch placement and movement. So, I wouldn't use his velocity as an indicator of anything more than arm strength. Lots of guys can throw hard, but they don't necessarily throw well.

12. By: eknpdx on 02-14-2011 16:24:41
@Edman: Jason said "Bonderman wasn't awful last year, but he wasn't good, either. He could regain some command and velo, or he could get hurt again."

PitchFx supports a loss in velocity of his slider, but nothing else. As noted above, his slider started off good, but dropped off as the season went on.

As for the fastball, there's small sample size problems on Bonderman's 2 seamer, since he threw very little of it until last year.

As for the movement, the sample sizes are again too small on his changeup and 2-seamer. His slider seems to have more horizontal movement, less vertical movement. Over the season the horizontal movement was much more consistent, while the vertical movement was erratic.

Based on pitch selection alone, the contrast from 2010 and his previous years is significant. He might be trying to reinvent himself.

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-14-2011 16:53:01
This is where scouting rules and pitchfx, well, drools, because it doesn't say anything for 2011.

There were times when Bonderman was pretty good. Times when he was just ok, and times when he was awful. The stuff is there if he takes another step forward, back to where he was, or close to it.

And I'm told he didn't scrap the 4-seamer, but uses the 2-seamer 3/4 of the time. The video I've watched backs that up.

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