Prospect Insider - M's on the brink

M's on the brink

By Jason A. Churchill

By 06-15-2011

As well as the Seattle Mariners have been pitching their way to a respectable number of victories this season -- more at this point that than most believed -- one thing remains clear: the Mariners need more offense. I contend, however, that they need a lot more offense if they are stay in contention all season.

Sure, I would hit up any number of us casinos and bet that Felix Hernandez would turn it up a notch the rest of the way, and I have no reason to believe Erik Bedard will fall off the planet, though I feel much less confident about that with his injury history. Expecting Michael Pineda to keep up this Cy Young pace, however, is asking too much.

I'm not suggesting he will fall on his face, but requiring him to be a No. 1 all year is unrealistic. He's going to hit some bumps, moreso than Hernandez, perhaps even Bedard. Pineda is also not likely to make 30-plus starts this season, since that would certainly push him over 190 innings, maybe even over 200, something in early September, so the club may push him back aggressively in the second half or perhaps even shut him down.

He's never thrown more than the 139 1/3 frames he threw last season and he's on pace for just under 200 at his current clip. Something will have to give at some point.

Calling up Dustin Ackley is not the solution -- it can be part of it, but left field or third base needs a tune, and I'm not sure the M's can get it done.

If you feel differently, I suggest heading to a casino online and placing those wagers, and I'll be on the other side of the table betting against you.

The current series with the Los Angeles Angels may be the teetering point for me. I believed in the club enough up to this point to think a couple of average or better bats to replace the horrible production in left and at third could do the trick but I am now of the belief that more will be needed. Adding Michael Cuddyer and Ryan Ludwick, for example, won't cut it. And since there are so few impact bats potentially available this summer, it's difficult -- not impossible -- to see a match.

The Mets have Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, and both are likely trade available, but what do the M's have to spare that will be more valuable to the Mets than what other clubs can and probably will offer? Pineda and Ackley aren't going anywhere and even trading Nick Franklin in a deal for a two-month rental is not appealing nor very plausible.

Beltran comes with a huge contract attached, too, and he'll be owed around $7 million the final third of the year. Maybe the M's are the most willing team to take on all of that in lieu of a blue chip package but it's still tough to imagine a matching package of legit value coming from Seattle and appeasing the Mets.

Prince Fielder is not going anywhere this summer since Milwaukee is contending, the Cardinals aren't trading Albert Pujols and there is a lack of further options.

Seattle might be better off standing pat, though I'd be more convinced that a smaller deal makes sense if the club starts to win again. The past week and a half have been mediocre at best and the Tuesday's defensive gaffes were embarrassing, though it seems few people noticed.

Ichiro's error may have cost the team a run, but Chone Figgins' decision in the first inning to go to second to try and start a 5-4-3 double play rather than running to his bag to look for a 5-3 twin killing certainly hurt Doug Fister, and Justin Smoak's poor decision to throw too early in the rundown allowed Torii Hunter to get back to first safely instead of becoming out No. 1 -- also cost the team a run.

I'm not beating the Mariners down, they have played some inspiring baseball at times, and I'm more disgusted at the poor attendance last night -- the announced number of 17 and change was twice the amount actually in the ballpark -- but if the M's want to contend in 2011, they're going to need outside help, and probably more than they are capable of acquiring without mortgaging too much of the future to justify the idea in the first place.

The Texas Rangers are only going to get better, they are getting healthy and they do have the resources to make impact deals. The Angels aren't going away, either, as they have high quality starting pitching, too, and their veteran bats are showing signs of life, something Seattle can only hope for at this stage.

I guess what I am suggesting is that Wednesday's game versus the Angels seems a lot more important than it should, and the club's performance up to the all-star break will be as telling as ever.

m\'s-on-the-brink

Comments
The following 29 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: sexymarinersfan on 06-15-2011 15:27:41
This is a season for letting the rookies play and figuring out exactly what we have. Of course it would be nice to make a run at the playoffs, but it's not realistic. Frankly I'm really encouraged by the fact that this team has managed to stay in contention all season long thus far. The rookies still have room to grow just as some of the vets have yet to come out of their slumps. Just keep acquiring pieces and value that is going to make this club better down the road like Jack has said. We're making progress. I can see that.

2. By: Mackie on 06-15-2011 15:33:04
Good points, Sexy! It's great seeing them do as well as they have so far, but it could be very difficult for them to keep it going without some major modifications.

Jason, agreed about the starting pitching holding up. I believe they will almost certainly shut down Pineda at some point, I still think Bedard's body is like a time bomb, and Fister and Vargas are decent BOR guys who aren't entirely consistent... so Felix seems to be the only certainty in the rotation.

Also agreed about 3B, it needs something new. I think they're still working on sorting out LF and DH, and hoping they can find in-house solutions at both those positions while still keeping the team competitive... although I think they would need more production from all three of those positions to get themselves over the hump for really being in a division title race.

I'd go for some small deals soon, bolster the depth on the roster and maybe thus lessen the chance that some of the workhorses in the lineup will get worn out later, in the event that team is still competitive after July. Then if the team is still actually in contention in 4-6 weeks, go for a larger deal or two if the AL West looks ripe for the taking... but be very careful about who is traded.

You said "they're going to need outside help, and probably more than they are capable of acquiring without mortgaging too much of the future to justify the idea in the first place." This is what worries me, that they will be put into a position of having to (or at least being tempted to) trade prospects for veterans during a time when they are getting what looks like a very nice rebuild going.

I think "slight upgrades" would be the way to go during the next month. What are the chances of some other team maybe taking a lackluster performing vet (like Cust or Figgins) or a fairly solid and likely-useful vet (like Jack Wilson) along with a prospect that may not fit into the Mariners' plans but might be enticing to another team (maybe like Josh Fields), and in return giving us something of a slight upgrade in LF or at 3B?

What about a player like Chase Headley... what would it take to get him from the Padres, and would he be worth it? He can play both positions but could help at 3B. Would he provide much of an upgrade overall? It seems most anything would be better than Figgins at this point.

3. By: rjfrik on 06-15-2011 15:40:07
Glad to see your new line of thinking Jason.

This is how I've thought about this team from the get go. It's painfully obvious that they don't have the offense to compete. They need to get a legit bat or two and trading away the farm for someone isn't it.

They will regress to their mean and end up with about 70-75 wins in what will be a very good rebuilding year. There is a lot to be excited about on this team. A lot of development and some really nice surpises.

The only way to grab those impact bats for the future is to trade off a starting pitcher at the deadline. Jack needs to work his trade magic and find a young hitter who can be turned into an anchor in this lineup for the future. They are out there and a few teams will get a little desperate come the deadline.

4. By: Edman on 06-15-2011 15:40:59
I disagree, somewhat. Every year is about contending, until you can't. To imply that this is the year to play rookies isn't true. You do that when you're out of the race, not while you're in it. GMs aren't often about being realistic, and more about being opportunistic. It's more valuable to the M's to get into the playoffs, than worry about rookie development.

That said, I don't want to see the M's go out and get a Reyes or Beltran. They both are too costly, either in what it takes go acquire them, versus what it respresents for the future.

But, certainly, if they can make some marked improvement with a veteran player who's can help them compete now, and it doesn't take a big investment in cost, length of contract or loss of minor leaguers, then yes, go get them.

As the Giants proved last season, it doesn't take a great offense to win, if you have great pitching. But, it does take a good offense, which Seattle lacks at the moment.

They can do both. Why can't Mike Carp/Carlos Peguero replace Jack Cust? Why can't Wilson and or Rodriquez be replaced?

Jack has to try to compete this year, if he can. And, doing nothing to try to improve the offense doesn't show a desire to win. Winning has to be the goal of every player on the 25 man roster. And, Jack has to step up and help them do that, if he can do so reasonably.

5. By: Edman on 06-15-2011 15:45:43
rjfrik, they "will" regress? I know that's your opinion, but it sure isn't stated as such.

6. By: sexymarinersfan on 06-15-2011 15:54:22
Disagree Edman. They don't have a complete core yet to compete. Pineda will not be totally reliable enough to keep this team going strong with starting pitching down the stretch, much less into October. Make a trade if you must, but don't not take away from the farm or valuable time in the majors from Carp, Ackley(when he gets here), Halman, and Peguero. We need to see what we have in those guys before we can actually go off on some crusade and acquiring talent. We might already have the pieces right there in them. Unless some huge deal falls right in our laps, the only thing to do is to keep going out there and competing and try and get Figgins to bust out of his slump along with call up Ackley and get him some playing time in the majors. It's not time to trade any starters right now. We're still a month and a half away from anything like that.

7. By: Mackie on 06-15-2011 16:12:26
I agree that they have to try and compete until they can't. To do otherwise seems to suggest that fielding a competitive team is not important to the organization. Zduriencik does indeed have to do what he can, within reason, to keep the team competitive.

Even if the moves he makes are small ones, Z has to do what he can. Edman suggests Carp/Peguero could replace Cust, and I happen to agree. Some moves that represent upgrades can certainly be made from within the organization. And at the moment I think Edman is right, DH is probably one of those positions. LF maybe not as clear, and 3B? Well... 8-)

When it comes to the M's bringing in impact players from outside the organization" I don't see the question so much as one of "if" but more like one of "when". I don't think that during this season is the time for major moves, unless something really great drops into their laps. I'd be looking for moves of the major variety to happen during the off-season or during next season (as I expect the team to be more solidly competitive a year from now).

8. By: csiems on 06-15-2011 16:16:27
Where do the M's upgrade?

Although LF and DH were black holes for the team early on, over May/June the Peguero-Halman-Carp carousel in left and Jack Cust at DH are actually putting up average production at those positions. Bringing in a Kubel-like bat isn't going to be much of an improvement.

The current black holes right now are at 3B, RF, and CF, and will be significantly harder to upgrade. Calling Ackley up and job-sharing Kennedy and Figgins at 3B might solve some of that, but you're creating a crapstorm with a guy still owed a lot of money. Ichiro can't be upgraded, although thankfully he may be coming out of the slump. I'm honestly stumped by Gutierrez and hope that he can start producing something.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the team try to add a PITCHER around the break in anticipation of putting the brakes on Pineda.

9. By: StandinPat on 06-15-2011 16:43:27
"To imply that this is the year to play rookies isn't true. You do that when you're out of the race, not while you're in it."

Those "rookies" have basically been the reason you are contending, giving you much more production than expected and have outproduced their veteran counterparts.

"Bringing in a Kubel-like bat isn't going to be much of an improvement."

Or Ludwick for that matter. This is the problem that I see, yes the M's need more offense, but where does it come from? Trading away assets to acquire a struggling veteran who only provides a minimal upgrade over what you currently have seems like a complete waste.

You still have to try and salvage something out of Figgins, and your second best pitcher, Pineda, is due for some sort of regression and will have his innings limited as well.

I love that the Ms are competitive this year, but I still don't think they are contenders. It might make the most sense to just continue with what they've been doing, while looking to add a piece or two that can be part of a contender in 2012. The last thing I want to see is the front office give up part of the future to finish 4 games out.

10. By: Marco on 06-15-2011 16:47:03
Contending vs Texas for the division and vs Boston, New York and Tampa for a wild card berth ? Yes, it makes sense.

11. By: ndcohn on 06-15-2011 16:50:52
While I agree that the Mariners need "alot more offense," I'm not convinced that "most" of that offense would need to come from outside of the organization, and I'm not just talking about Ackley. The prior comment alludes to this, but the cleanest route to an improved offense goes through Gutierrez and Ichiro. If Gutierrez and Ichiro even just match their underwhelming performances from last year, that would constitute a very significant offensive upgrade. Coupled with Ackley, the Mariners offense would be poised to make substantial gains relatively soon. I doubt that's enough to keep up with Texas, but it's not like we'd need Beltran just to stay in the race.

12. By: csiems on 06-15-2011 18:06:01
Not to start a lot of fantasyland trade proposals, but I wonder how available Hiroki Kuroda and Casey Blake are from the Dodgers who are looking to cut salary? If you can send Figgins out in the deal that would be even better.

Neither Kuroda nor Blake seem to be a part of the Dodgers' near future, but both would help the M's a lot. Blake and Kennedy could hold down third and would represent an offensive upgrade with a little bit of power. Kuroda is a solid pitcher (who is always underrated) who would allow the team to reduce Pineda's usage. Neither would require a commitment past this year, although I could see bringing either or both back.

13. By: rjfrik on 06-15-2011 18:17:19
RE:4

"To imply that this is the year to play rookies isn't true."

Edman, with all due respect this is exactly what the mariners are doing this year and they have been winning while doing it. This is the exact year to play rookies and find out what you have.

Rookies that have played.

Smoak
Pineda
Saunders
Halman
Puegero
Carp
Wilson
Lueke
Cortez

Rookies that will play
Ackley

That is 10 rookies that will of had there chance this year and I'm glad they are doing it. Play those kids and find out what you do and don't have.

Am I missing anyone else? Maybe.

14. By: rjfrik on 06-15-2011 18:28:34
Yes regressing is my opinion Edman. But it's also looking at number +/-, adjusted standings and pythagorean. Bottom line is the M's have over achieved and unfortunately over the course of a season they will start playing closer to their true value, which unfortunately is a notch below a .500 club.

15. By: Mackie on 06-15-2011 18:29:07
@#8/#12, I also wouldn't be surprised to see them add a pitcher.

If the Mariners find themselves as "buyers", teams that are crappy right now (.450 winning percentage or lower) include Oakland, Minnesota, K.C., Cubs, Astros, Dodgers and Padres. The Twins have won 8 of their last 10, but I don't know how much hope there is for the others in that group to contend. Florida is 32-35 but has gone 1-9 over it's last 10 games. And there are other teams hovering around .500 who could fall off, like maybe the Mets, Jays, White Sox and Rockies (AND of course, the Mariners!) Which of those teams would most likely be sellers?

I can see how getting a couple of rent-a-players like Blake and Kuroda could be helpful... if 1) the M's are still in contention by late July, 2) either or both of Blake and Kuroda are available by then, 2) they are available on the cheap (meaning no top prospects sent to LA), 3) the M's were still having problems getting any offense from 3B, and 4) if anybody in the rotation was showing signs of being tired or wasn't pitching well.

16. By: bakomariner on 06-15-2011 18:45:20
One way they need to try to upgrade is by picking up the DFAs that have been rolling out. They have already missed out on a couple. Kazmir was released by the Angels today. They are paying his tab. I'd be all over him in hopes that he can regain his form. He's still young and a former all-star. Put him in the pen for long duty and give him spot starts for Pineda to keep his innings down.

17. By: slamcactus on 06-15-2011 19:06:56
99% of the time faced with this team with this record, I would completely agree with both Jason (that getting down to .500 with the talent of this team means the season is on the brink) and the posters saying this is a time to play rookies and evaluate what pieces you can use for the future.

This situation falls into that 1%.* Yes, the glaring weaknesses that have been on display all season were there in particularly strong force the past 2 games against the Angels. Yes, this team has huge, huge flaws. And yes, nobody expected 2011 to be a year in which the team would be competitive. And once glance at the team, either on paper or in person, sure says they don't have the talent to compete.

But we're 68 games into the season, a mere 2 games out of first, with only one team ahead of us, and it's not at all clear that the two teams behind the Ms are much better than we are. We've gotten here despite one of our core players having been out for most of the season, and our franchise player turning in the worst 2.5 months of his career. Guti's now healthy, we have a top-10 prospect ready to come up and improve the offense, and it's going to take more than 2 months for me to believe that this is the year that Ichiro's finally kaput.

The Mariners are not the best team in the AL West. Nowhere near. But after a significant chunk into the season we're 2 games behind the best team in the AL West, and ahead of the other two. A major stumble from Texas (whose best player is a huge injury risk), combined with either continued luck or bona fide improvement, and this team could stay in contention late into the season. If you do that, anything's possible during the final month.

Obviously Z shouldn't pull a Bavasi and gut the farm out of a delusional belief that the team is one impact player away from contention. Obviously the Ms have outperformed their pythag in a way that screams that regression is coming.

But we're 42% of the way through the season and 2 games back. Even if we have no business being here, here we are.

I'm all about playing the long game, but this far into the season you don't punt when you're this close. The Mariners should be playing to win until such a point that it appears that we're no longer reasonably in contention. Not evaluating fringe prospects by plugging them into the lineup every day.

Obviously this doesn't mean don't call up Ackley. He's a bona fide MLB-ready blue-chipper who will almost certainly improve the team immediately. It does, however, mean that a small move for a stop-gap LF is a much better idea than dividing LF playing time between three suspects just because they represent the "youth movement."

*It's a bit misleading to say I disagree with Jason. We pretty much agree on what the team should do from this point on - stay the course, maybe acquire an actual major league player for LF or 3B. I just think two consecutive losses in which the team looked really crappy doesn't yet constitute "the brink" when we're still only 2 games out.

18. By: Edman on 06-15-2011 19:24:07
bakomariner, I'm all for signing Kazmir, but not at the major league level. He couldn't fool AAA hitting, he surely won't fool major league hitters.

Now is not the time to take on a reclamation project.

Kazmir is most likely done as a major leaguer. But, as long as he's willing to prove himself in the minors, why not?

And to be clear about my statement regarding a year for rookies, I meant that it should not be a policy to put getting them playing time, before looking for potential established major league talent, if it's at the right price.

rjfrik, so would you have been one of those telling the Giant fans not to get excited, because they will regress back to their mean? I could easily see the Mariners staying at .500, and maybe a touch above. Right now, there are only three hitters batting about their mean, Olivo, Ryan and Kennedy. And, none of them are that much above. So, doesn't it reason that the others could see improvement from where they are right now?

19. By: slamcactus on 06-15-2011 19:36:11
Time for a potpourri post.

"Fister and Vargas are decent BOR guys who aren't entirely consistent..."

The only thing inconsistent about Fister is that he's gotten better each year he's been in the majors. I'll take that kind of inconsistency any day. Vargas has been slightly better this year than the past 2, but he's pretty much been a model of consistency as a Mariner.

I think what you mean is that they haven't been consistently excellent. Show me a team whose #4/5 starters are consistently excellent, and I'll show you a team with the best rotation in baseball (not even the Phills have a consistently great #5 guy). Fister and Vargas aren't decent BOR guys, they're very good BOR guys.

"over May/June the Peguero-Halman-Carp carousel in left and Jack Cust at DH are actually putting up average production at those positions"

Halman and Carp have started a combined 4 games in LF. Even if you don't think Peguero's destined to collapse (which I do), he's strictly a platoon guy, which means 1) he requires dedicating an extra roster spot to another OF, and 2) he's easy to neutralize in close games. A LF who can stand in against same-handed pitchers and provide decent offense is preferable to Peguero even if Peguero can sustain his ~league average offense.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: GMZ, go get us Chris Denorfia. The longer we wait and the more he keeps hitting, the more likely it'll be that the secret's out of the bag that he's a very good player under control through 2013 who can help a playoff team.

"One way they need to try to upgrade is by picking up the DFAs that have been rolling out. They have already missed out on a couple. Kazmir was released by the Angels today. They are paying his tab. I'd be all over him in hopes that he can regain his form."

He can't. He's a power pitcher whose lost his power pitch (avg. velocity down to 86.5, that's sub-Vargas territory). The Angels are one of the most conservative organizations in baseball when it comes to sunk costs (See Darin Erstad 2001-2006), and they just tossed Kazmir out with the trash. Stick a fork in him.

20. By: slamcactus on 06-15-2011 19:42:13
"rjfrik, so would you have been one of those telling the Giant fans not to get excited, because they will regress back to their mean?"

You've made this comparison a few times, but the Giants really aren't a good comparison for this team. The Giants' offense was average to slightly below (100 team OPS+, 93 team wRC+). The Mariners, to-date, have the worst offense in baseball.

I'm actually on your side in the larger debate in this thread: stand pat, maybe make a small-ish move or two, and see what happens. But the Giants aren't a good example. At the plate, the Ms are operating at a whole different level of futility.

21. By: Marco on 06-16-2011 00:19:29
JAC I can't wait for your midseason Prospects Report to compare with the pre-season one.

22. By: rth1986 on 06-16-2011 01:38:26
#19 - While I wouldn't mind acquiring him, I can't imagine why the Padres would want to trade Denorfia. They need hitting as much as we do.

***********

Now that we've called up Ackley, I think we just need to stick with what we have. If we're still competing a month from now (mid-July), then we could consider making a move. Look at our current lineup:

C: Olivo/Gimenez
1B: Smoak
2B: Ackley/Kennedy/Wilson
SS: Ryan/Wilson
3B: Figgins/Kennedy
LF: Peguero/Halman/Carp
CF: Gutierrez/Halman
RF: Ichiro
DH: Cust/Carp/Peguero

Really there isn't an obvious area for an upgrade, IMO. I'd like to acquire a catcher who can give Olivo an off-day and hit RHP. Personally, I'm still gunning for C Ryan Hanigan with his tremendous approach at the plate and very team-friendly contract.

I'd consider calling up Cust, as he's just a wasted roster spot right now. I'd also consider sending down Peguero for more seasoning and keeping Cust, but it seems like Wedge has established a man-crush on Carlos. I'd rather have Mike Wilson (or some other lefty-masher) on the roster who can platoon at DH or LF.

Apart from that, what is there to do right now? I hope the Mariners call up Cortes and Lueke again, as I'd rather have them on our staff getting some time than some of our journeyman relievers.

If we're still competing in mid-July, we could make a trade to replace one of our rookies (not trade our rookie, but send them to AAA). Sure, if somehow a rare amazing deal landed in Z's lap (ala the Cliff Lee trade) for a slugger, I'd do it. But I just don't see an obvious target now.

23. By: rth1986 on 06-16-2011 01:42:16
^^I'd consider **cutting** Cust, not calling him up...

24. By: Edman on 06-16-2011 01:56:49
slamcactus, I used the Giants comparison because they didn't go out and make in big moves to improve their offense. They made a series of small moves that just happened to work out well.

25. By: Jerry on 06-16-2011 08:36:40
Two guys I'd love to see Jack pick up: Wily Mo Pena and Wilson Betemit.

Those two would help a lot.

But I wonder if we don't already have an answer in LF right now. We have quantity over quality in Carp, Halman, Peguero, Figgins (when he shifts to super utility soon), and Saunders (who I think it is far too early to give up on). I hope one of those guys emerges as a legit long term option. Adding Pena to the pile wouldn't hurt.

The thing I like about Betemit and Pena is that they aren't likely to cost a ton, and would be valuable even if not playing every day.

26. By: 36148 on 06-16-2011 09:52:01
Jason, (or anyone)
I'm curious as to what determines the right level to start a prospect. What makes Everett the right place for a prospect? Why not Miller at Pulaski? Why Tony Butler at Everett? Of course it's talent level, but what else?
What's the difference between Everett, Pulaski, High-Desert ABall?
thanks....

27. By: slamcactus on 06-16-2011 10:26:26
RJ,

San Diego has a bit of an OF logjam and Denorfia doesn't have a fixed position with them. They're not contending, have a perfectly good long-term cf in Maybin, and Kyle Blanks is raking in AAA. I don't see any reason why they wouldn't entertain trade proposals for a guy they're using as a 4th outfielder.

28. By: slamcactus on 06-16-2011 11:51:02
"slamcactus, I used the Giants comparison because they didn't go out and make in big moves to improve their offense. They made a series of small moves that just happened to work out well."

But their offense wasn't terrible to begin with. They went from slightly below average in the first half to slightly above average afterwards.

29. By: PositivePaul on 06-16-2011 16:06:35
Here's another potentially realistic target. What about Jim Thome as Cust's replacement? Yes, he's got injury issues and is getting old, but he's still putting up solid numbers, takes the walks that Cust does but could be a very legit upgrade over Cust. With Minny falling into the injury death spiral and if they do fall out of the race, he'll become expendable and will want to be on a contending team.

Certainly I seriously doubt he'd anything we wouldn't miss to give up. And certainly you want to look at other options first (or in addition). But if he's healthy enough to play he'd be a nice pickup. Shouldn't take depleting the farm to get him, either.

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