| By Rick Randall | ![]() | By 12-07-2010 |
| 1. By: John_S on 12-07-2010 08:40:26 I would agree if we were a pitcher away from contending, but does adding Greinke make you better than Texas? Anaheim? Oakland? If you're looking at the Wild Card, does adding Greinke make you better than the White Sox? Twins? Tigers? Rays? Red Sox? If you are talking about your window being 2012 how are you going to jump over those teams with Grienke AND ....... because Greinke does not make you better by himself. Who are you going to add for offense? Felix arguably the best pitcher in the AL was .500 with this club. How can you expect to add a similar pitcher and contend without addressing the needs on offense? |
| 2. By: CyFelix on 12-07-2010 08:45:03 It would be great for Seattle to pair Felix with Greinke. If all things go well for Pineda he is a TOR starter. But that's what Greinke already is. I'd just hate giving up a player who can hit at a premium position. I'd have to really think about it. |
| 3. By: masonb on 12-07-2010 08:46:36 As long as it doesn't cost the Mariners Ackley and/or Smoak, I say go for it. Like Rick said, the next two years of Greinke > Pineda, and Franklin, though he would be a big loss might never have a higher value so I say go for it. |
| 4. By: mymrbig on 12-07-2010 09:10:19 I'm all for going after Greinke and certainly Pineda would be a good piece, but giving up Pineda and Franklin and other useful prospects makes me hesitate. I'd hope Jack Z could be more creative and move one of our relievers and use those prospects in addition to Pineda, rather than giving up Franklin. But who knows. |
| 5. By: jgstecker on 12-07-2010 09:17:57 I'd be willing to give up Pineda and Franklin for him. Very likely he'll bring a healthy return in 2012 if we can't get to the playoffs in the next two years. Ackley and Smoak are off limits though. I believe Texas can and ultimately will give up more for him, so I don't think it will happen. |
| 6. By: John_S on 12-07-2010 09:29:43 "I'd be willing to give up Pineda and Franklin for him. Very likely he'll bring a healthy return in 2012 if we can't get to the playoffs in the next two years. Ackley and Smoak are off limits though." Let's assume you trade Pineda, Franklin + for Greinke and we do not contend and you are looking to trade Greinke. What type of players are you looking for in return? I would say you are looking for Pineda/Franklin type prospects in return. So why not keep Pineda and Franklin and develop them and see where it goes. With the payroll the way it is, this team is not going anywhere until a certain 18 million dollar per year contract is off the books. |
| 7. By: JonathanAicardi on 12-07-2010 09:37:32 This is all sounding eerily familiar. |
| 8. By: PositivePaul on 12-07-2010 09:55:39 Great points, Randall! Count me in. There's tons and tons of risk in Pineda and Franklin, and if that's the foundation for the trade I'm totally fine. Aardsma or League could be included to offset some of the financial costs, potentially. Would LOVE to get Greinke. |
| 9. By: baseballman on 12-07-2010 09:58:13 Youre right John, our team is going suck just because of Ichiro...who cares about the dead weight contracts of guys like Wilson, Bradley or still paying guys like Silva and Yuni...yep, that wasted 23.3 mil is nothing compared to actually getting value for 18 mil out of Ichiro...and what Ichiro brings in revenue wise isnt anything either...what a worthless player, not |
| 10. By: slamcactus on 12-07-2010 10:00:25 "With the payroll the way it is, this team is not going anywhere until a certain 18 million dollar per year contract is off the books." By all means, when the team's down, put all of it on its most productive hitter. Brilliant. |
| 11. By: Timberwolf on 12-07-2010 10:04:02 This team just isn't close enough to justify this kind of move. Think back to the Bedard deal. Even if Bedard had been as healthy and productive as he had been in Baltimore, it would have been a bad deal for a team that wasn't ready to strike. Jack has been out signing a bunch of talented 17 year olds so that we can be in a position to make a move like this in a few years- we aren't there now. |
| 12. By: thedarkness on 12-07-2010 10:06:17 This is quite possibly the worst idea I've read on this site. We will not compete this year and may be closer to contention next year. Given that this year is a wash, we will be replicating the Felix and Lee scenario of last year, which is not desired. So then we look at 2012 and we'll have Greinke on the hook who we can then deal for a couple of prospects and get someone like Pineda and Franklin in return. What's the point? The focus should be on getting a good young bat for a player like Aardsma. Our pitching is okay for this year given we'll lose 90 games. Get a few stopgap players, hope the youngsters develop and then shed salary for 2012. |
| 13. By: JonathanAicardi on 12-07-2010 10:18:55 Jack wouldn't do a Bedard-like deal for Greinke several reasons, most of them having little do with actual baseball and having more to do with hindsight, or just plain common sense. But that's all besides the point since nabbing Greinke wouldn't solve anything for either of the next two years. A deal like that would AT LEAST take Pineda and Franklin and probably Robles or a pair of lesser names and essentially play right back into the old philosophy of a tolerable yet overwhelmingly mediocre product that may (or may not. Re: 2010) make a run. |
| 14. By: Saltydawg05 on 12-07-2010 10:22:46 I think this is a good move if the cost is only Pineda(who has an injury history), Franklin, and some other minor pieces. Worst case scenario you would get Greinke for 2 years and he would leave via Free Agency in which case you'd get a 1st round pick and sandwich pick to try and replace Pineda and Franklin. However, you could also trade him at the deadline next year and replace all the talent you gave up. Best case scenario you make a play off run (look at the Giants, pitching wins) and with Greinke and Felix you have the best 1/2 combo in baseball. |
| 15. By: thedarkness on 12-07-2010 10:29:47 Make a playoff run? We had the worst offense since the inception of the DH and now don't have Lopez or Branyan, which, sad as it is to say, were a part of our offense. What do think Greinke does to help that? We have him for a couple of years and then trade him for the equivalent of Pineda and Franklin. That gets us nowhere. |
| 16. By: John_S on 12-07-2010 10:36:05 I've been pretty consistent in my view of this team with Ichiro on the roster. With him as your best player you are not going to go anywhere. With him as your best player earning 18 million its going to be hard to spend in free agency. It's the truth I am sorry about that. You can talk about the Silva contract or the Bradley contract which is a byproduct of the Silva contract but those players were not expected to carry the load for this team, they were considered to by pieces to the puzzle. Ichiro is expected to carry the load and he is paid handsomely to do it. He's a non-rbi guy who you can pencil in for 200 hits/singles, hit .300 - .335 and steal 30 bags. It's great to have that, but not at the price you're paying him and not at the position he is playing. He's a great RF, but his production does not match that of a RF'er. Would this team be better off with Andre Either playing RF vs Ichiro? Would this team be better off having Jayson Werth playing RF vs Ichiro? Justin Upton? Josh Hamilton? Nick Swisher? I would say this you already have a player who can take over the leadoff spot in Chon Figgins. Who do you have to replace production that the other RF'ers I listed and that is the problem we have and the problem with this roster. |
| 17. By: aerichner on 12-07-2010 10:37:53 I dont understand the ones that arent into this. This is Zack Greinke we're talking about. I understand keeping top prospects when we're talking about trading for NON-elite talent but Greinke IS elite and IS a stud. His numbers will probably improve in SaFeco and with that defense so if we do need to trade him, his value will still be high. Im sure Jack is exploring this without giving up Ackley/Smoak and Im all for it. It wont bring a World Series ring in 2011 and maybe not 2012 but it does make the Seattle Mariners a better team. Im not into the drafting and waiting to see if we ever have something like the Pirates do. And with Seattle now labeled as a losing team and FA staying away, I say do the deal. Get studs by making trades. Two thumbs up. |
| 18. By: thedarkness on 12-07-2010 10:46:56 Two stud starting pitchers, one of which will need to leave and be traded in 2012. Meanwhile we have virtually no offense. Cliff Lee and Felix didn't work because we had no bats. Why did Felix only win 13 games? Because his run support was paltry in the games he lost. Bedard didn't work. But Greinke is a stud. Yep, let's pull the trigger. |
| 19. By: mazono on 12-07-2010 10:59:20 As crazy as it sounds I've thought and said close to the same thing as Jon said to you guys as I've said to my friends. I am all for trading Ichiro you have figgins to replace. Ichiro is getting older. And I think he is most likely to head to Jaoan when hi contract is up. Here. |
| 20. By: JonathanAicardi on 12-07-2010 11:13:56 It's easy to look at San Francisco's rotation and say pitching wins except that the Giants A) played in the weaker league, B) had a much stronger bullpen and, contrary to popular thought C) HAD OFFENSE, including 3-win+ players at several key positions like Huff, Uribe, Posey, Torres, and even Burrell for the late run. Even Sanchez was a near 3-win player. That's ignoring that San Francisco didn't just have 2 big starters. They had 3, and for most of the season 4, and at some points FIVE. Seattle needs to stop wasting time with these convoluted A-Team schemes that haven't worked in 7 years and rebuild. Plain and simple. |
| 21. By: CyFelix on 12-07-2010 11:54:21 It's not like we are trading a major offensive piece away, we get a more proven version of Pineda and an even better version. Then we are trading away a SS who is a great prospect and could be a fast riser, but he is expected to be in AA next year and we've seen prospects who have had big years fall down to earth. Granted they were in A+ but still, he could bust as easily as he makes it. |
| 22. By: etowncoug on 12-07-2010 12:12:56 Anytime you have the ability to get elite talent, you need to see if it works for you. Zack Greinke is a special player and it would give the Mariners a devastating one-two punch in their rotation. The having that second ace takes a lot of pressure off the offense. I think it is also worth noting that no one expected the Mariners offense to be as inept as it was last year. Give last years Mariners a league average offense and with that rotation and they are a decent team. This is not a Bedard situation where we keep giving up talent to get a pitcher because the general manager is desperate to make a move. If the price is too high Z will back off. His record with trades is pretty impressive and I don't see him getting ripped off. Add to the equation that we would be trading with Dayton Moore and I am confident that we win that trade. |
| 23. By: rjfrik on 12-07-2010 12:26:32 Remember who our GM is guys. Jack dosen't give up squat to get players. He makes rival GM's who he is trading with think they got a haul but in reality they didn't get a thing. Just look at the Lee deal. Lee is way better then Grienke, yes we would get Grienke for another year so that would up his value a bit, but gave up peanuts for Lee. The Royals are desperate, other teams have bowed out of this and the Bluejays won't include their top pitching prospect but they are considered the leaders in obtaining Grienke? So why would we have to unload two of our top 4 prospects? I don't think we would. Jason was just saying what he would do, which is blow them out of the water with an offer while the iron is hot. Now I think Jack is on the same page but I don't think it will cost as much as Pineda and Franklin. My guess is Jack can get it done for Pineda and scraps. And if that's the case you do it and do it NOW. We are talking about a mid 20's CY Award winner. A kid who is in his prime. Send out Pineda, Leuke (who I love but the front office doesn't), Wilson (K.C. is looking for a RH OF) and you probably get a deal done. I think if the Royals can get Pineda it won't matter who you send over with him. So would you trade Pineda for Grienke? That's the question. |
| 24. By: mymrbig on 12-07-2010 12:36:25 Remember that when the M's traded for Cliff Lee, they basically gave up 3 2nd/3rd tier prospects. They didn't give up elite guys like Pineda or Franklin. Also remember that pitching prospects and young pitchers get injured all the time (Ryan Anderson anyone?). They fail to adjust to the majors or take a few years to adjust (Homer Bailey, Joba Chamberlain, etc.). Pineda is a great prospect. But he is also a volatile prospect who has some history of arm issues and saw a big jump in velocity last year (which scares plenty of knowledgeable people). |
| 25. By: short on 12-07-2010 12:52:19 I'd do Pineda + Franklin + change in a heartbeat. If the team fails to contend in 2012 and you can't extend Grienke, then guess what? You're right where the M's were with Lee in July of this year with the hottest trade bait in the league. The odds of those two prospects being highly productive by 2012 is so-so for Pineda and pretty small for Franklin. I expect we'll get a veteran SS for at least two years during this offseason. So you're looking at 2013 before you can seriously count on those two players. The guys you get in a deadline deal in 2012 can be of the Smoak variety -- ready to contribute the following season. The only risk here is injury, which is a risk for the guys we have (for Pineda at least). If this deal is there I hope Jack takes it. The salary add is a problem for this team, however. |
| 26. By: JonathanAicardi on 12-07-2010 12:54:09 Cliff Lee had 1 year of control and was 31. Greinke has 2 years and is 26. That probably makes him justifiably more expensive and even immediate hindsight dictated that Amaro botched that trade. The Royals are under little pressure to give him up right this moment for something less than what they'd prefer. I don't believe for a second they'll take Pineda and change. Not this early. And everyone's talking as if keeping Pineda and Franklin wouldn't be worth passing on Greinke unless they became studs. They don't have to be stars. Franklin just has to be a productive shortstop. Pineda just has to be a solid rotation contributor. That's it. If they can each be average and grow into consistent or even above average regulars, considering their cost, that's fantastic! That's the point. That's how teams get built and thrive; cheap, homegrown cores that provide way above their actual salaries. Every successful team in baseball (even the Yankees) exhibits this property. Even the Giants, to spite themselves, were led by homegrown regulars. And unless you have $150-200M to spend every year to cover your collective ineptitude in the draft and development system, gutting your farm every two years for 1 or 2 players just won't work. |
| 27. By: Saltydawg05 on 12-07-2010 14:00:23 Playoff run in 2012...I don't think much of their chances next year |
| 28. By: slamcactus on 12-07-2010 14:36:57 "Would this team be better off with Andre Either playing RF vs Ichiro? Would this team be better off having Jayson Werth playing RF vs Ichiro? Justin Upton? Josh Hamilton? Nick Swisher? I would say this you already have a player who can take over the leadoff spot in Chon Figgins. Who do you have to replace production that the other RF'ers I listed and that is the problem we have and the problem with this roster." Good analysis: looking at specific player contributions. Bad analysis: thinking of players in terms of their archetypes. Ichiro is a 4-5 win player making 4-5 win player money. He's not a bargain anymore, but he more than earns his salary. Ichiro's not the reason the 2010 team sucked. Look at every other position player before you target the only guy on the roster who played well. Of the players you listed the only ones arguably better than Ichiro are Werth, Upton, and Hamilton. Hamilton's not moving anywhere, and Werth makes far, far more than Ichiro does now. Ethier and Swisher are far inferior players. You're completely, 100% wrong if you think the team's best player is the one holding it back from contention. |
| 29. By: short on 12-07-2010 14:45:03 @26 You make good points about the value of quality young players, but the thing about the Greinke deal is that you're not really giving that up. Greinke will be better over the next two years than Pineda and Franklin, and if you aren't competitive in 2012 you pull a trade that brings back young talent. My point is that if all you give up is Pineda + Franklin and filler it's a good deal. No way I give up Smoak or Ackley in this deal, because the only way the M's are competitive in 2012 is if those guys turn into quality regulars (or more Jack Z Magic gets worked, I guess). |
| 30. By: thedarkness on 12-07-2010 14:48:00 The 'trade for Greinke' mentality is exactly the reason why the Ms have sucked so bad for years. Building through a strong internal minor league system is the right way to do things, it takes years to do and requires a lot of discipline to stay the course. This trade would undo years of good work and put us back where we started in 2012 with nothing to gain from this coming year for Greinke either. Bad idea. |
| 31. By: slamcactus on 12-07-2010 15:02:23 "Would this team be better off with Andre Either playing RF vs Ichiro? Would this team be better off having Jayson Werth playing RF vs Ichiro? Justin Upton? Josh Hamilton? Nick Swisher? I would say this you already have a player who can take over the leadoff spot in Chon Figgins. Who do you have to replace production that the other RF'ers I listed and that is the problem we have and the problem with this roster." Good analysis: looking at specific player contributions. Bad analysis: thinking of players in terms of their archetypes. Ichiro is a 4-5 win player making 4-5 win player money. He's not a bargain anymore, but he more than earns his salary. Ichiro's not the reason the 2010 team sucked. Look at every other position player before you target the only guy on the roster who played well. Of the players you listed the only ones arguably better than Ichiro are Werth, Upton, and Hamilton. Hamilton's not moving anywhere, and Werth makes far, far more than Ichiro does now. Ethier and Swisher are far inferior players. You're completely, 100% wrong if you think the team's best player is the one holding it back from contention. |
| 32. By: JonathanAicardi on 12-07-2010 15:37:59 There's a difference between being better and being useful. A 2011 Greinke, at best, will prevent us from a top 5 pick in the following year's draft. He'd be a second Felix Hernandez the way Cliff Lee was. So unless anyone thinks the Mariners front office as currently constructed can string together an entire offense and bullpen from the FA pool in 2012 while paying Ichiro/Felix/Greinke $45M (if not more, AND with an assumption Ackley and Smoak are anything close to what we hope), this would be just another short-sighted decision to avoid the hard work it would take to build a true winning franchise. After that, Greinke leaves, Ichiro is 40 and we're right back to square 1, only Felix is two years closer to skipping town himself. |
| 33. By: baseballman on 12-07-2010 15:48:55 I find it funny how many people are bashing the mere idea of adding one of the best SP in all of baseball and having him for at least the next 2 seasons. No one knows what it will cost the Ms to acquire such a talent, yet some on here think they know, but they dont. They complain about the unknown cost and how Greinke wont make us better, and they liken it to the Cliff Lee scenario...hello! Having Cliff Lee here was the best thing to happen to the Ms! We definitely got the better end of the Lee trades...so why are so many people against Greinke?! It doesnt work out, you flip him or you collect your 2 high draft picks. Yet another win/win scenario for the Ms. |
| 34. By: short on 12-07-2010 15:56:58 @32 JonathanAicardi Another losing season like last year will be a disaster for the M's. Wins are worth money to the franchise. Greinke was worth 5 WAR last season in an off year. If he adds 5-7 WAR per year over the next two years that's a lot of money for the franchise. We should be happier if the team goes 80-82 and gets the 13th pick than if they lose 101 games and get the first pick. As someone pointed out in the LL thread on why people won't sign in Baltimore, the M's are getting that stink of failure which repels free agents. Being better next year, if the price is right, should be a goal of this team. |
| 35. By: Chris Crawford on 12-07-2010 16:24:00 One thing people haven't been talking about: The ability to deal Greinke in two years if the team isn't competing. Assets are always good, guys. You don't wanna give up too much, but assets are always good. |
| 36. By: JonathanAicardi on 12-07-2010 17:01:48 I'm not saying Greinke wouldn't be a great pitcher to have in the rotation. He would. He would be amazing! But does he make the difference? Does he really, truly help us get to the playoffs? Lets say he even gets us to .500, which already you're leaning on a LOT of luck. Who here in this thread would find joy in .500 non-playoff team for another two years before we either have to deal him or lose him for picks 9 months after the fact? It would be great if we can afford to give away a package to get Greinke and feel good about our chances about competing. But who here realistically believes he puts us in a position to contend in either of his final two years? In what scenario does anyone believe that could happen? You deal this package of prospects, Smoak and Ackley graduate, and either they fulfill the entirety of the potential or you've got nothing left. |
| 37. By: rightwingrick on 12-07-2010 19:06:29 If its' me, if KC wants Pineda, I'm trying really hard to get KC to take OF Greg Halman (Baseball America just called him our best athlete, and you can't argue with the power potential), and take Carlos Triunfel or Gabriel Noriega at SS, not Franklin, and if they do that I agree to throw in RP Josh Fields, a former first round pick who looked much better in Arizona this fall (we have other options in Lueke, Cortes, Cesar Jimanez. Halman, Triunfel, and Fields were rated last year by Baseball America as our #6, #10, and #16 prospects, and Pineda is clearly #2 or #1 this year. |
| 38. By: bl4dux on 12-07-2010 20:21:14 Pineda, Franklin, Saunders and League for Greinke. I do that in a heartbeat. Did anyone not watch the Giants win with dominant pitching and patchwork offense? Imagine if Bedard came back. We sign a couple of batchwork guys like Olivo and Hudson. Sign Branyan or Matsui or Maggs. We are back in business. Besides we get the number 2 pick this season!! Rendon or Gerrit Cole to replace Pineda. Do it Jack |
| 39. By: Rick Randall on 12-07-2010 21:11:54 RE: #37 - BA just did the M's top 10 for 2011, rightwingrick, and Halman, Triunfel and Fields aren't ranked. Truthfully, it would be a coup if the M's could get the deal done with Pineda, Franklin, Saunders and Cortes, but it definitely would not get done for less than that. RE: #38 - If KC dumps Grienke, they are admitting (more) rebuilding, and League would have no value for them. I appreciate all the comments and feedback from everyone. |
| 40. By: Rick Randall on 12-08-2010 05:35:28 Yeah, they aren't taking Cortes back. Robles or Beavan would have to be that piece. |
| 41. By: Chipper on 12-11-2010 11:13:52 Hate to be a downer but nobody has mentioned that Greinke's salary will put the M's well over budget for 2011. If anything, this ownership os consistent in insisting hat they have to mae a profit every year (that served them so well in 2002 and 2003 when they wouldn't add payroll and Piniella and Gillick walked away in consecutive years). Did anyone hear that idiot Chuck Armsrrong at the winter meetings, crowing about what a great ownership the team has for not cutting payroll further for 2011 (after cutting payroll $30 mil the previous two seasons). This management group doesn't think outside the box. Their thnking is that season tickets went down from '09 to '10 despite trading for Cliff Lee and signing Figgins (a move everyone loved when it was made). They know attendance is going down further this year -- to levels we've never seen at Safeco and its gonna take a lot more than Zack. greinke to bring the fans back. Mariners averaged 43,700 fans per game in 2002, when they refused to add payroll mid-season to get Lou Pniella a bat to replace the injured Edgar Martinez. Their reasoning was that they owed it to their shareholders to make a profit(as if making the playoffs wouldn't make them a bundle of money). Since '02 average attendance has dropped off a few thousand per year to the point where they're now averaging 25,000 a game (and tha number is likely to fall below 20,000 a game in 2011). The fans aren't coming back until this team starts winning again (and that's when the payroll might go back up to where it should be). These owners destroyed the franchise by cutting payroll $10 mil last year in a year when they acquired an ace that only had one year left on his deal.unlike this year there were bargains last year -- that $10 mil would have gone a long way towards the team contending liike everyone thought they would... |
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