| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 03-29-2011 |
I think we all know the Seattle Mariners aren't likely to win 90 games and contend in the American League West -- although none of the other three clubs are runaway favorites that appear capable of winning 95-100 games. So 2011 is, whether the club publicly admits it or not, somewhat of a rebuilding season.Since that is the case, GM Jack Zduriencik has a lot of work to do in order to put together a roster that can win 95 games and challenge the best teams in the circuit. Part of that work will have to be done via free agency, but Zduriencik is a pretty good trader.
In that light, let's take a look at the club's top 10 trade assets, minus Ichiro -- because it's just not happening -- and Felix Hernandez, because at the very least it's not happening between now and July 31.
| No. 1 -- Michael Pineda, RHP |
He wasn't the No. 1 prospect but because he's a potential impact starting pitcher and is big-league ready -- or close to it, at least -- he tops this list.
It's difficult to imagine Seattle trading Pineda unless the return was significant and for a player that comes with more probability than a pure prospect.
Service Time: 0.00
ETA: Opening Day
| No. 2 -- Dustin Ackley, 2B |
Ackley's work at second base isn't stellar but it is adequate and improving with every game he plays. His bat is ready for the show, however, and the only reason he doesn't rank No. 1 here is because of the lack of power he's likely to display early on in his career as he gets stronger and learns the league's pitching.
Trading Ackley, like with Pineda, probably isn't in the cards barring a blockbuster that brings a perennial all-star under the age of 30 back to the Mariners.
Service Time: 0.00
ETA: June, 2011
| No. 3 -- Franklin Gutierrez, CF |
Stomach ailment and offensive struggles aside, Gutierrez carries some value on the trade market as one of the top few defensive centerfielders in baseball. He's signed through 2014 for an average annual salary of $5.5 million with a club option for $7.5 million for the 2015 campaign.
He's still just 28 with some upside at the plate and a number of clubs lack such defensive prowess at a premium position.
Service Time: 4 year, 80 days
Years Under Club Control: 4
| No. 4 -- Justin Smoak, 1B |
Smoak has a lot to prove but as a switch-hitter with power from both sides and a minor league track record of above-average on-base marks, there's value here for another year or so.
Service Time: 116 days (172 days is one year of service)
ETA: 2011
| No. 5 -- Nick Franklin, SS |
Franklin's ranking here may be aggressive, but I believe he's a shortstop rather than a second baseman, and the lack of production from the right side simply doesn't bother me much.
Service Time: 0.00
ETA: September, 2012
| No. 6 -- David Aardsma, RHP |
Aardsma has to get healthy first, but he threw a 20-pitch session this week and appears to be within a few weeks of returning. Once he reestablishes himself as the club's closer, he'll have value across the league this summer as a good setup option or for a club needing help in the ninth inning.
The M's won't get a premium closer return for Aardsma, but they should be able to get at least one valuable piece or two prospects with a chance.
Service Time: 4 years, 82 days
Year Under Club Control: 2
| No. 7 -- >Miguel Olivo, C |
Olivo is probably the biggest surprise on this list for many, but the extreme, sore lack of catching in the big leagues plays a major role in the veteran's value.
Considering the fact that Olivo ranks No. 6 in all of baseball in WAR for catchers over the past two seasons combined (not including players that are not catching in 2011), his 2-year, $7 million deal is a bargain, despite the fact that he is not a good fit at Safeco.
If Adam Moore flips the switch, Olivo could be traded to a contender this summer, next winter or at the deadline in July, 2012 and probably bring back a useful player or two, potentially more.
Service Time: 7 years, 171 days
Years Under Club Control: 3, including the club option for $3.5 million
| No. 8 -- Brandon League, RHP |
League could improve his trade value by performing well in the time that Aardsma will be out since he's the designated closer.
His value is still as a 7th or 8th inning option on a contending team, but could also be a valuable piece to a bigger trade for prospects.
Service Time: 4 years, 145 days
Years Under Club Control: 2
| No. 9 -- Jason Vargas, LHP |
Vargas' value will decrease some with every season added under his belt and is already making $2.45 million in 2011. Another quality season for the left-hander this year and he could earn more than $4 million via arbitration next offseason.
Vargas could help a contender fill a hole at the back of their rotation, so watch out for his name this summer.
Service Time: 3 years, 114 days
Years Under Club Control: 3 years
| No. 10 -- Michael Saunders, OF |
Saunders beats out Moore, Figgins and teenage prospects Guillermo Pimentel and Taijuan Walker for the final spot in the Top 10. Figgins will have to return to form, just as he has this spring, to make the list next month.
Saunders' new swing mechanics are clearly helping him; his swing is shorter as a result, which very well could eliminate the high strikeout totals and add to his batting average. He's still having some problems with the breaking ball and he'll need to show he can cover the plate and hit the ball to left field, but he's ended the spring on a high note and brings baserunning and defensive value to the table, too.
If he can help the club acquire a proven regular, he could be trade bait this summer, otherwise Saunders could be moved to make room for another young player over the next year or so, such as Johermyn Chavez, a free agent pickup or a trade acquisition.
Service Time: 1 year, 51 days
Years Under Club Control: 5
Jason A. Churchill is Executive Editor at Prospect Insider, founded in 2006, and has covered scouting and player development since 2003, writing for publications such as InsidethePark.com, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and The News Tribune. You can follow Jason on Twitter @ProspectInsider, as well as @ESPN_MLBDraft, and contact him via email at Churchill@ProspectInsider.com.
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Comments
The following 13 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: AntsInIn on 03-29-2011 22:00:06 So IF the Mariners do indeed get Rendon in the draft, how much more likely does that make a Figgins trade? Also, which do you see being traded first? Last? Assume no health concerns and career average year. Aardsma Bedard Figgins Wilson |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-29-2011 22:06:42 1. None, at least for 2011-2012. Though they still might deal him anyway. Rendon isn't stepping onto Safeco in April 2012 as the starter at third. 2. Aardsma, provided he does come back in April. |
| 3. By: Lailoken on 03-29-2011 22:24:22 JAC, what are the odds the team trades both Aardsma & League by the trade deadline? Wilhelmsen, Lueke, Kelley, Cortes, Fields, Pryor, Fray Martinez, Snow, Burgoon, Mieses, Robles, Paredes, & Moran may have a lot to prove but by August 1st a lot of those guys could prove themselves MLB-ready or near MLB-ready. Besides, you'd think that if multiple trades are made (Aardsma, League, Jack Wilson, maybe Bedard, maybe Olivo, maybe Figgins, Bradley, Cust, Ray, Wright, Kennedy) at least one near MLB-ready bullpen arm would be coming to the M's in return. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-29-2011 22:38:08 Not great odds, but it's still very possible. They get awfully pricey next winter. |
| 5. By: safecochatter on 03-29-2011 23:18:11 Surprised Bedard's not on this list,although i guess he needs to show health first. tidbits from my 6 days in phoenix that ended today. of the 3 parks i visited... Salt River Field(Rockies/D-Backs) - A for the field D for their attitude. which includes vendors selling mostly just coors,so they could yell.."Taping the Rockies here"! u want something else go get it yourself.. not to say anything about your entrance,where you feel anything but a cavity search is possible. plus prices 10 to 20 % more than any other field. Surprise(Texas/KC) - A for the field and A for the people working here! Plus free parking! Peoria (M's/Pads) B+ for the field and B+ for the people. this complex has been the master to all the new complex's down here. but the new fields all have a lot more mid day shade.The big plus for Peoria..it has good player access. I took several photos of Ichiro on several different occasions. i never saw him smile. not once. i hope he has a good year,but the Japan thing has really got him "pre-occupied". Chone seems much happier and i think we'll see a much better year. |
| 6. By: 36148 on 03-30-2011 00:14:23 Jason, please give me a baseball reason why Ichiro won't be traded. Everyone always says, 'not happening.' Why not? (My guess it's FA nonbaseball logic) We still could get some serious younger talent to help us contend in 2012/2013. thanks. |
| 7. By: 36148 on 03-30-2011 00:16:09 I mean: "it's a FO (front office) nonbaseball logic...." |
| 8. By: johnfree on 03-30-2011 02:49:52 36148, The Baseball reason trading Ichiro isn't going to happen is because trading him wouldn't help the club. Unless you were willing to eat at least part of Ichiro's contract you won't get a worthwhile prospect in return. However, if you end up eating part of Ichiro's contract, you just got rid of the main reason to trade him in the first place. |
| 9. By: gregorilla on 03-30-2011 08:25:09 Is this team going to really need to dump a lot of its youth to win? I feel that this has been the approach of both the Phillies and Brewers recently, and while it worked for the Phillies, their pool of team talent was deeper when they made their trades. I'd rather trade off players of moderate to low return (Jack Wilson, Olivo, Aardsma, maybe League) and keep the core intact. A related question: Is there talk that MLB and the player's association may do away with service time and free agent compensation in the coming off-season? |
| 10. By: Madison Mariner on 03-30-2011 11:17:59 "Is this team going to really need to dump a lot of its youth to win?" Well, just because the players with the most trade value according to the rankings above happen to be the young players doesn't mean the team will 'need to dump' them, as you put it. I think it just reflects that they have the highest value right now. It makes more sense for the M's to use this as a consolidation/rebuilding year, trading off a few players close to free agency(Jack Wilson, perhaps Milton Bradley) or players who are still under team control but may have value(David Aardsma, Miguel Olivo) and get what they can to further stock the minor league system, adding to the continual rebuilding. Moore will need to break out and prove he can be the #1 catcher to justify moving Olivo, but the rest of them already have their replacements in the M's system(Ackley for Wilson and/or Kennedy at 2B, Saunders for Bradley, and a number of young relievers for Aardsma, including Dan Cortes). One other player I thought of as having value is DH Jack Cust. Cust had his service time in 2010 reduced after Oakland outrighted him to AAA for a month, then re-added himm to the 40-man and brought him back up. He won't get to 6 years of service time until after 2012(instead of after 2011) as a result, so the M's essentially got an extra year of team control when they signed him. Any chance they tender him a contract next offseason, then trade him to another team and go after a bigger name for DH? He could bring back a useful prospect if he has a good season(of course, being a DH limits the pool of interested teams to other AL teams, and we could probably cross off Oakland as a potential suitor.) |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-30-2011 13:04:57 Why do I have to give a baseball reason for Ichiro not being traded? There isn't one, but there are GOOD reasons to not trade Ichiro. He doesn't suck -- and you all know I'm not an Ichiro fan -- and he brings in Japanese advertising money. He probably still brings a few people to the ballpark with him, too, and not many Mariners outside he and Felix do. But the point is, he's not going to be traded unless he asks for it, and there is no reason to believe that happens. |
| 12. By: maqman on 03-30-2011 13:31:48 I'm sorry but I don't get the trade Ichiro or trade Felix considerations. They are both more valuable to the M's than any other team and young Cy Young Award winners and 200 hits a year Gold Glove fielders are once in a lifetime rarities. Enjoy them while you can, you may never see their equal again in your lifetime. |
| 13. By: dewey on 03-30-2011 15:46:24 Lets get this straight there isnt a team in baseball that will take on Bradley we our stuck with him until his next meltdown .Im guessing that should be April 24-26th! lol..Im holding my breath on Bedard its nice he had a good 5 weeks in arizona i will believe it if he is still on the mound come june 1.Lets hope neither of these things happen but it has every year we have had these two. |
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