Prospect Insider - Michael Pineda: A 2011 Retrospective

Michael Pineda: A 2011 Retrospective

By Adam H. Wong

By 11-16-2011

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The Seattle Mariners' season was a disappointment. It wasn't a disaster, but it was certainly a disappointment. Most of that disappointment stems from the taste of contention experienced early in the season. On July 5^th, the Mariners were sitting at an even .500. A month before that, Eric Wedge was quoted as saying that the team may have "a chance to make a run at this." Even at only two-and-a-half games back and 86 games into the season, things were looking up. There was hope, maybe even a chance. There was an opportunity.

The historic 17-game-losing streak that followed ended that glimmer of opportunity. Inconsistency was the theme of the 2011 season. The offense was anemic, the pitching's peak and trough of success was frustrating, and some of the manager’s in-game decisions were mind-numbing.

Their abysmal performance on the field forced the fan base to salvage something positive from the season. Luckily, Felix Hernandez put up another great season. He did everything the club asked of him: he was himself. He performed above and beyond the average AL starter, and he was the top contributor to the team’s WAR. In essence, he was the constant amongst the inconsistent.

Luckily, he wasn't the only Mariners pitcher to have some sort of consistency.

There was also Michael Pineda.

I preface with "some" sort of consistency because there was an obvious decline in his second half. In the first half of his rookie season, he put up a 2.64 ERA, held batters to a .202/.269/.314 slash line, gave up just seven home runs, struck out 85 and walked 26. In his second half, he put up a 4.92 ERA, held batters to a .221/.289/.371, gave up 11 home runs, struck out 88 and walked 29. He effectively fooled opposing teams in his first go-around, but a couple more home runs and extra base hits in the second half hurt his overall numbers.

Pineda's lack of control the latter part of the season could be attributed to a multitude of things: dead-arm, mental fatigue, inexperience. Although the front office took it easy on him during the last stretch of the season, he still pitched 171 innings -- a good 32 1/3 innings more than he had ever pitched in pro ball.

I'm glad the brass decided to take it easy on him. The decline of his control is negligible because of age. He'll be 23 going into next season, and if how the franchise handled Hernandez's development is indicative of how they'll handle Pineda's, things look promising. The thing to be the most excited about, however, is his ability to consistently fool batters.

Strikeout Leader
The following is a table comprised of total called strike percentage, strikes called looking and swinging strikes. I've coupled Pineda's data with some other Rookie of the Year candidates for some perspective.

Michael Pineda
Quarter	Strikes	Strikes Looking	Swinging Strikes
First	70%	17%	13%
Second	66%	17%	11%
Third	64%	16%	12%
Fourth	66%	18%	11%
Average	66.5%	17%	11.8%

Jeremy Hellickson
Quarter	Strikes	Strikes Looking	Swinging Strikes
First	60%	19%	11%
Second	61%	13%	10%
Third	64%	16%	10%
Fourth	61%	15%	8%
Average	61.5%	15.8%	9.8%

Ivan Nova
Quarter	Strikes	Strikes Looking	Swinging Strikes
First	59%	19%	4%
Second	63%	17%	5%
Third	65%	20%	8%
Fourth	63%	20%	9%
Average	62.5%	19%	6.5%

The notion around the baseball community was that Pineda wasn't going to win the award. It was either going to go to Tampa Bay right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, Los Angeles Angels slugger Mark Trumbo or Ivan Nova of the New York Yankees, and the way the Baseball Writers' Association of America voted validated those thoughts. Frustration was evident as Mariners fans vented across the various venues of social networking. Other than the antiquated win-loss record and misleading ERA statistic, Pineda pitched better than both Hellickson and Nova. However, M's fan can find found solace in the fact that, for the most part, the BBWAA awards are meaningless and not predictive of future success.

Pineda is a strikeout machine. His 173 strikeouts eclipse Hellickson's 117 and Nova's 98, but it's more than just that counting statistic that bodes well for his development. If there is anything that projects his potential improvement in the coming years, it's that his swinging strike rates were ridiculously consistent. The hike in the first quarter may be due to batters seeing him for the first time, but he hovered around 12 percent the rest of the season. Hellickson saw a steady decline and Nova saw an increase. Pineda was consistent from the get-go.

One of the reasons his strikeout rate was so consistent was his ability to stay in and around the zone. When he entered the second half of the season, it was thought that he could be throwing too many strikes, and that’s how batters found an advantage against his pitches.

Raw Stuff
And it's those diabolical pitches that drew so much interest. When Hernandez first entered the scene, his fastball was one of the tops in the league, sitting at around 94 mph and touching 97 mph. Times have changed since then, and would-be elite pitchers are sitting around 97 mph and touching 100 mph.

That's exactly where Pineda sits with his fastball. It's more than just velocity, however. His height and release point augments the perceived velocity, and the numbers show that batters were completely dumbfounded by his stuff.

Whenever a visiting team’s player was caught for a post-game interview, they always said that Pineda had some of the nastiest stuff they’d ever seen. His fastball tailed and was overpowering, but when he made a mistake, the batters capitalized on it. Other than the few mistakes he made, Pineda was dominant. Among those with at least 170 innings pitched, he led the American League in swinging strike percentage, followed by Brandon Morrow at 11.5 percent, then CC Sabathia at 11.2 percent. That’s pretty good company.

The Rangers have Neftali Feliz, the Tigers have Justin Verlander and the Braves have Craig Kimbrel. The Mariners have 23-year-old Michael Pineda.

Still a Kid
I still remember the first home runs Pineda gave up. It was five consecutive quality starts in, and both Mitch Moreland and Chris Davis took him to deep center field at Safeco. It was a bittersweet realization. Of course he was going to give up a home run, it was just a matter of when he was going to. At the same time, it was part of the maturation process, and it's great that Seattle got to be a part of it.

Before he was knocked around for the first couple of times, it looked like his composure was untouchable, too. After giving up a run or two, he would walk to the backside of the mound, take a deep breath, and take the rubber again. These were the sightings of the growing pains in progress. It's remarkable that, at his age, he was able to slow the game down and recollect his concentration. After those two home runs, things sort of changed. We didn't see the steadfast composure we saw in his first few outings, but it was still there. He was learning how to fight through the tough situations.

Even through the adversity on the field there was still that smile. On the field, he had a stern, determined demeanor. Off the field, there was a grin that reached from ear to ear. During post-game interviews, after a rough outing, he would go back into the club house, collect this thoughts, and talk about what he could improve the next time around. He even joked about his changeup, or lack thereof to be exact.

Pineda represents exactly what the Mariners franchise is going through: there is a high ceiling for potential, but it feels like they have to pay their dues before they can compete. Pineda has the weapons to be an elite pitcher. He has to harness his ability to hurl and learn how to pitch.

He becomes arbitration eligible in 2014, the same year that could be Hernandez's last with the club.

Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.

michael-pineda:-a-2011-retrospective
Comments
The following 2 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: dmojr on 11-17-2011 00:12:14
Adam,

Solid post man. Really felt like a story was being told, and helps paint the picture of what Pineda could mean to this team and Major League Baseball in the future. He's going to be a good one.

2. By: maqman on 11-17-2011 13:50:27
Nicely done Adam. The M's are going to be a better team next season, no doubt about it and Pineda is one of the reasons why. He's also a quality guy that the team and fans can be proud of.

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