| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 09-02-2011 |
Starting this week, Prospect Insider is taking an in-depth look at the State of the Seattle Mariners, from the 2011 season to the lack of impact bats to how the farm system can and will help in 2012. I'll also tackle the performance of GM Jack Zduriencik, whose contract was just extended Thursday. Tuesday, PI profiled scouting director Tom McNamara. Thursday I took a look at the candidates to get some time in September. Today, let's talk about Michael Saunders.Like many talented baseball players, Michael Saunders put up numbers at every step of the minors. He hit at short-season Everett, struggled a bit as a 19-year-old in Class-A Wisconsin, but tore up the California League a year later and tasted Double-A West Tennessee the last few weeks of the 2007 season at age 20.
He performed in the Southern League the following year despite shoulder problems and got his first taste of Triple-A baseball at age 21. The results were mixed, but he certainly had a clue and was far from overmatched.
He lit up the PCL in 2009 -- .310/.378/.544 with 30 extra-base hits, 13 of them home runs in 64 games before being called up and struggling in the big leagues for 127 plate appearances.
Again despite fighting through minor injuries, Saunders played in 100 games with the M's in 2010, showing flashes of big-time ability, but never finding consistency. He ended last season with a .211/.295/.367 line, but did have 10 homers, 11 doubles and a couple of triples.
We know Saunders can field. He offers plus range in a corner with an average or better arm and can play some center, too. He's a good baserunner and can swipe a bag here and there, even at 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds. What he's not doing is hitting, at least in the majors, and he struggled again early this season before being sent back to Tacoma.
Over the past year or so, Saunders has been dealing with an off-field issue. His mother had been diagnosed with terminal cancer, and he left the Rainiers on two occasions this season to be with his family. His mother passed away this summer, but the weight of the illness had to have been on his mind since the diagnosis. Because of this, I'm willing to give him a bit of a mulligan. Thing is, there's more to Saunders' struggles than his mindset.
His swing has changed at least twice in the last 16 months, once prior to the season starting. His hands were brought down closer to his back shoulder and in front of him, rather than closer to the catcher, shortening his swing path and giving him an opportunity to hit better velocity while still protecting against the breaking ball.
That has been adjusted some more since he was sent to Tacoma. His hands are away from his body slightly more than before, yet still even with his back shoulder. The result has been an improved ability to hit the ball the other way.
In the majors, in all three stints, Saunders' spray chart looks like someone installed a vacuum in right field. So very little was going up the middle or to left and left-center, and almost zero balls were hit well in those directions.
He was standing closer to the plate and trying to pull everything, which can help in the power department, but then he was busted in -- within the zone -- and then his holes on the outer half were exposed.
His new swing and stance, while certainly not a miracle-working fix, have allowed him to hit the ball to left field. Three of his seven homers in Tacoma have gone out to the left of center field, one of them right down the line.
He's hit the ball much better to the opposite field, and while that doesn't equal problem solved, it's legitimate progress.
The walks are still there -- 49 in 274 plate appearances, or about 18 percent -- though the strikeouts are still there, too -- 69, or 25 percent. That number is too high, especially since it appears he's been focused on hitting and the power has taken a back seat somewhat.
He's still appears to be caught between being selective and being patient, but he's a different hitter than he was earlier this season. The biggest issue with Saunders, however, might be his overall approach to the game.
I'm not questioning his desire to get better and be a big leaguer, and he will and has worked hard. But there's a grit to successful players, a focus that is otherwise unrivaled. Saunders may not have it.
Dustin Ackley has it. Nick Franklin has it. Kyle Seager appears to have it, too. It's an extra gear, though not a physical one. It's a mental gear.
Sometimes, though, players just don't flip the switch, and those are what we refer to as late bloomers. Saunders may not get a shot in the big leagues again with Seattle -- he may not even be recalled after Monday's MiLB finale in Tacoma -- but some club is going jump all over him (Philly? San Diego?) this winter or next spring and could get an everyday player out of the deal.
Athletes that can run, throw and the physical tools to hit don't grow on trees, and Saunders is still just 24 years of age. Ryan Howard didn't figure it out until he was 25, and Edgar Martinez was 27. The only difference is that Saunders pushed his way through the minors faster than those two and has had previous failures in the show.
There's a chance, however, that Saunders wasn't ready for the big leagues when he was asked to perform. That changes everything.
Photo of Michael Saunders by Paul Marsh
michael-saunders
Comments
The following 30 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: 24fan4life on 09-02-2011 19:44:49 If I was the mariners--I'd wait until his personal grief has passed to make any decision on him. I hear the point on the "extra gear", I just wonder if it would be there if he wasn't mentally taxed by his situation with his mother. There's a lot to like about him so I hope he gets another chance. |
| 2. By: dawgncarolina on 09-02-2011 19:57:19 I still want to believe in Saunders. I hope the M's don't give up on him this offseason, at least not unless they get a legitimate return for him. I still think he can put it together. Great piece, Jason. |
| 3. By: docsmith on 09-02-2011 20:39:19 I am also all for continuing to give him a chance to see if he can turn the corner. I am also wondering what is the downside to doing so? Isn't it just a spot on the 40 man roster? Or is he out of options and he needs to be on the 25 next year? |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-02-2011 20:55:25 Downside? No true downside. And they may do just that, but there are a slew of corner outfielders that are AAA/MLB ish. Can't keep them all. |
| 5. By: 11records on 09-02-2011 23:06:11 Saunders is actually 2 years younger than Casper Wells... But, you're right... Jack has stacked the Org with corner OF types. Wells, Trayvon Robinson, Halman, Catricala, Chiang, Chavez, Peguero. (and that's assuming Mike Wilson goes to another club in the off-season). It's hard to sort out who will land where next season, with 4 spots OF in Seattle (with Ichiro and Guti filling 2 of those spots) and with three prospects needing to play every day in Tacoma. Chavez might repeat AA based on performance, but the rest should be at AAA or in the bigs. That leaves you with 7 bodies for 5 spots... Personally, I'd love to see Saunders get another season as the full time CF in Tacoma to see how he develops. Good problem to have though. |
| 6. By: rightwingrick on 09-03-2011 00:30:03 Saunders was also asked to play out of position to cover for Guti during all this, so the nagging injuries, family issues, changing is batting approach at the major league level, and his need to focus on defense in center field, all probably worked against him. But he's still a young guy with lots of talent, and I hope the M's give him another shot. And just to set the record straight on Edgar, it wasn't him who "didn't figure it out until he was 27." It was Mariner's managment. I remember talking to an in-uniform M's coach at the Western Washington Fair (he was there for a promotion event)and Edgar was tearing it up (again) in AAA while Seattle was struggling. I asked him why they weren't playing Edgar, and the response was (true story), "We just don't think he can hit major league pitching." My response was (true story), "You guys are crazy; I think he'll win two batting titles before it's over." His response: "No way". |
| 7. By: rightwingrick on 09-03-2011 00:53:12 11records: Of the outfielders your list, Wells is already "what you see is pretty close to what you get" due to his age and resonably consistent history. Halman and Peguero could definitely use another year of AAA (plate discipline for both); Catricala has to move up to AAA (he's been a very pleasant surprise every step of the way through the system, but needs to nail down a positon and improve his defense); Chavez and Chiang will probably start in AA as they both disappointed in terms of production as Mariner AA farmhands this year (Chiang in admittedly limited time). I don't think Mike Wilson ever got a fair shot, unfortunately, and he's likely the odd man out. I'm thinking it's Ichiro, Guti, Wells, Robinson, and maybe Saunders with Seattle in '12 barring some blockbuster trade or signing. |
| 8. By: 24fan4life on 09-03-2011 01:10:31 My opinion on 11records list Wells makes the club next year. Robinson should be trade bait--his strikeouts are too high and his power doesn't impress me. Halman and Peguero mean very little to me at this point. I'd trade them or in Halman's case let him be available in the Rule 5 draft. Catricala has real potential and needs to be in AAA. Chavez should stay in AA, but Chiang is in his second year of AA ball and needs to move up. Chiang has struggled with the M's organization, makes me wonder if they kept his diabetes under control when he switched over. I know the red sox hired someone to work with him on that. I know there's a lot of players there, but honestly I'm not sold on very many of them. Just my opinion. And Saunders to me--is more likely to "flip the switch" than most of them. |
| 9. By: Adam B. on 09-03-2011 01:17:57 Is there some sort of deadline that I'm unaware of in regard to Michael Saunders? So far I've seen nothing about Saunders this year that should lead the M's to any conclusion but giving him the benefit of the doubt. He was in the middle of a fundamental hitting adjustment and Gutierrez's unforeseen diagnosis forced him into an every-day role he was clearly not prepared for. Combine that with the aforementioned off-the-field issues and his subsequent respectable numbers, and I see no reason why the organization that JUST let go of the far less talented/consistent Matt Tuiasosopo should be in any rush to ship out Saunders. I don't know that the additions of Trayvon Robinson and Casper Wells should effect their judgement either. What has either of those two managed to do that makes them clearly superior to Saunders? They've both had their respective struggles, and Saunders may have a higher ceiling then either. I'm not saying that the Mariners have to keep Saunders, or that his loss would be a huge hit against the organization, but I see little reason to ditch a clearly talented player at what has been the lowest part of his young career to date. |
| 10. By: Adam B. on 09-03-2011 01:22:10 JAC: "Downside? No true downside. And they may do just that, but there are a slew of corner outfielders that are AAA/MLB ish. Can't keep them all. " I agree completely, but then doesn't is make more sense to trade one of the players whose value is much higher then Saunders? Of Robinson, Wells and Saunders, I would think Trayvon would be the most likely dealt. |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-03-2011 01:32:52 Trayvon does not have "much higher value" than Saunders. I'm not even sure it's higher at all. |
| 12. By: d2ret on 09-03-2011 03:25:59 OT. Next weeks 4 game set with the Royals, and the following weeks 3 game series with the Twins may very well determine draft positions... Something to pay attention to. The rest of our schedule is versus tough competition... except for the A's. A good challenge for all the kids... as well as a positive sign the M's draft position next year. :) |
| 13. By: Mackie on 09-03-2011 10:53:24 Count me in with those who hope the Mariners have not given up on Saunders and that he gets another good chance to show what he can do at the major league level (and that he is ready for it... he hasn't really looked ready the last couple of times in the hitting department). He seems to have good skills and good potential, and whether it's with the M's or not, I hope he can put it all together. The club does face lots of dilemmas, but it's looking like they are the kind most clubs like to face: a decent influx of good, young talent, with some logjams starting to develop with pitching and at the corners. Looks to me like a good scenario for dealing from strength for some more hitting help (I'm not all that worried about the pitching). Will the M's be buyers this off-season or will they wait a while? |
| 14. By: maqman on 09-03-2011 13:33:40 I think Saunders has a potential higher ceiling than Wells, Robinson, Peguero, Wilson and Halman. I'd rather they trade any of them and keep Saunders. We have given up on too many good players too soon in the past, I hope we stop doing that. Jason another well written analysis. |
| 15. By: DKulich44 on 09-03-2011 13:41:00 Not trying to take away from the article, because I agree with most of it, but saying Ryan Howard took until 25 to figure it out is kind of a stretch. He was busy putting together a pretty amazing line for 3 years from 23-25 blocked by Thome. He's probably not the best example of a late bloomer because of their situation with Thome. But on Saunders, I would hope he's not just released, an the Mariners have to see the improvements he's made. He's not becoming a superstar any time soon, but there's a chance he's a pretty useful cost controlled piece. |
| 16. By: Edman on 09-03-2011 14:02:07 I think Saunders is a change of scenery candidate. I don't think he's gonna figure it out in Seattle. He needs a fresh start somewhere else where he can clear his mind. Sometimes, that happens in baseball. I'd love for him to figure it out, but his head is so cluttered with everything, including multiple major adjustments, that he thinks too much/ I have no problem with being wrong, and hope that I am. He didn't do well with a little pressure, how is he going to do with a lot more pressure to succeed? Baseball is as much a mental game, as physical. You have to believe in yourself, and Michael hasn't shown much of that. |
| 17. By: Lailoken on 09-03-2011 14:50:20 Considering the lack of PT available on the MLB-level next year w/ Ichiro, DTFT, Wells, & Robinson ahead of him I'd rather see Saunders in AAA working on his swing. He needs the at-bats to get the kinks worked out & a low-pressure environment for now is a better setting. Besides, Halman is out of options & also capable of playing CF. I'm not as willing to let Halman go as some appear to be when he's had his share of injuries & obstacles to overcome too. Like Saunders, Halman was pushed into action before he was ready. Halman (just turned 24) is younger than Saunders & growing up in the Netherlands added to his early professional struggles. The strikeout rates are still far too high but he's toolsy enough as a fifth OF to warrant keeping around in the odd chance he figures it out. Saunders may have the left-handed swing but Halman is better in CF & the power in his bat is legit. The OF is crowded. The more I look at things the more I believe the M's should show Aramis Ramirez some serious money on a 3-year deal. Either that or trade for Hanley Ramirez & convert him to 3B. Beltran, Sizemore, & Berkman are the only legit middle-of-the-order bats in the 2012 FA class. Beltran is crazy expensive, Sizemore is an injury risk, & Berkman as a LF in Safeco is a scary proposition. Smoak & Carp are worth developing as the 1B & DH at this point. 3B is the one spot that is wide open for a middle-of-the-order bat. |
| 18. By: zrininger on 09-03-2011 15:23:23 I like the article and I am still high on Saunders, but I think this article points to a similar situation that I don't seem to hear anyone talking about and that is Justin Smoak. Smoak lost his father this season. I know it didn't effect his stats right away, but you got to think that has to be a big part of his troubles at the plate. From what I've heard Justin's dad was one of his biggest supporters (Not a big surprise, but it isn't always the case). I wouldn't surprise me at all if not only dealing with his death, but not having him there for support with some of the on field issues (thumb injuries, etc.) is part of the reason we have seen such a drop in his stats. |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-03-2011 16:21:51 Smoak's issues could include the distraction of the passing of his father, but he has been hurt worse and for longer than the team will let on. |
| 20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-03-2011 16:39:51 Smoak's issues could include the distraction of the passing of his father, but he has been hurt worse and for longer than the team will let on. |
| 21. By: 11records on 09-03-2011 18:49:03 Another quick note on the Edgar reference .... I was growing up in Calgary when Edgar was blocked by Jim Presley. And I can attest to the fact that in Edgar's time in AAA he was a line drive machine. He hit .363 for a full season and still couldn't break thru. I went to around 40 Cannons games a year, and I can barely remember him swinging at a bad pitch. Funny story, and this is slightly off topic and may be wasting your time... The Cannons used to have an annual exhibition against the M's. I recall being in the clubhouse after that game in either 86 or 87, and I had gotten a ball signed by Edgar and Erik Hanson - the two best Cannons at the time. As I was walking away from Erik, I heard someone ask me, "hey kid, do you want me to sign your ball?" I turned around, and it was Jim freakin' Presley. Who as a 14 year old Edgar Martinez fanatic I thoroughly despised. But I thought it would be rude to say no, so I let him sign it. |
| 22. By: dawgncarolina on 09-03-2011 22:57:07 Catricala 2-3 with a 2B and a HR. In his last 8 games he's 11-26 with with 6 HRs, and 4 2Bs (so only 1 single). He's also walked 4 times against 5 K's. Assuming my math works that line works out to .423/.484/.900(!). His Double A OPS is up to 1.075. |
| 23. By: jgstecker on 09-04-2011 09:22:12 If it were up to me, I'd hang on to Sunders for another year. I don't know that his trade value is at a point this year where it would be worth dealing him. He still has potential and LF is far from a settled position for 2012. And he's got an option left. I say give him another year. The real question mark is Greg Halman. He's out of options next year - I thought he might get a 4th option since he's so young, but he has 5 years of full season ball in already. He might be worth carrying, but he isn't going develop on the bench as a 5th outfielder. He really should have spent all year in AAA. |
| 24. By: Jerry on 09-04-2011 12:38:04 I have the perfect solution: Trade Halman to COL for 3B Ian Stewart. Both players are guys with talent who are out of options. The M's would be trading a bit of upside for a guy who fits a need. And Colorado would be getting a younger, cheaper, and more athletic player for a guy who has struggled a lot at the ML level for them. The M's would also remove one name from the glut of young OF guys on the roster now. Stewart and Seager would both enter spring training with a chance to earn a starting job at 3B. Catricala will be in Tacoma if both flame out in the first half of 2012. For LF, Saunders, Robinson, and Wells would compete for playing time, as well as the 4th OF job. If I remember correctly, all three have options left, right? I still think this club is development mode. I don't think guys like Aramis Ramirez would be good fits for where thus club is right now. In fact, I don't really think that free agency is a good idea at all, beyond a few low cost, role player types. I wouldn't mind seeing Jack just stick to the plan, add talent to the org as much as possible, and continue to develop the core guys already on the roster. Outside a really ballsy, brilliant trade for someone who we wouldn't expect to be available (sorta like the Justin Upton rumors last offseason), I wouldn't be disappointed with a relatively quiet offseason. Jack brought a lot of talent into the organization the last two years. Maybe it's best to just let those guys play and reevaluate things next year. |
| 25. By: maqman on 09-04-2011 12:59:12 Jerry, except for Halman/Stewart trade I agree with you on forgetting high cost free agents and keep on figuring out what we really have already. One exception being signing Bedard unless he wants too much or too long. I'm sure Z will swing a trade or two and collect a load of spring training fodder from the discard pile. |
| 26. By: Jerry on 09-04-2011 20:08:50 Yeah, Bedard on a good contract would be smart. Some bullpen help would be nice too. More guys like Aardsma. |
| 27. By: Shawnuel on 09-04-2011 21:30:45 #24. The only real problem I see with that trade idea is that Colorado has an OF glut themselves. Smith, Gonzalez, Spillborghs, Fowler, Charlie Blackmon & Tim Wheeler breaking out this season and near the show....... But I guess extra depth never hurt anyone. With Guti's injury today, it looks like an avenue may have opened up for Saunders to be brought up soon as he and Halman are the best solutions at CF along with Wells, I suppose. |
| 28. By: Edman on 09-05-2011 01:23:14 #27, Trayvon Robinson is a true CF. He's most likely to get most the time in CF, not Halman. |
| 29. By: Shawnuel on 09-05-2011 09:58:04 #28, of course......I was actually thinking Robinson and inadvertently wrote Halman's name. Thanks. |
| 30. By: Rudolf on 09-06-2011 00:18:07 Love the story, 11records. Great article, JAC. |
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