| By Mike Craven |  | By 04-23-2009 |
The 2009 draft class boasts a lot of college pitching, including right-hander Aaron Crow, formerly of the University of Missouri, who was selected No. 10 overall last year but went unsigned. Luke Hochevar experienced the same thing in 2005-2006, and he's enduring some not-so-friendly results.Kila Ka'aihue is one of the many reason why the Royals had no business trading a solid bullpen arm to the Florida Marlins for veteran first baseman Mike Jacobs.One difference between the two? One can get on base and one cannot.
Another difference is that one is awful defensively, and one might not be so bad. Oh, and one is making $3.25 million this season and the other is not. Can you guess which player can't get on base, can't defend and makes more than three million bucks?
| Luke Hochevar, RHP – Omaha Royals (Kansas City) |
Few prospects have had as interesting a road to the majors as 6-foot-5 right-hander Luke Hochevar. He was drafted directly out of high school by the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he was a three-time all state selection in Colorado. He ended up attending The University of Tennessee where he enjoyed tremendous success. In 2005 the Dodgers would use another pick, this time a first rounder, on the SEC Pitcher of the Year. This time it wasn’t college, but an agent (Scott Boras) and his bonus demands that kept the Dodgers from signing Hochevar.
The young pitching prospect would spend a month in an Independent League after a little drama in contract negotiations before re-entering the draft in 2006 and being selected number one overall by the Royals.
Long story short, Hochevar has never been the same. Scouts and teams are worried about much of the same with 2009 draft prospect Aaron Crow. The layoff - Hochevar went nearly 11 months without pitching in a real game - the ensuing rust, the fight to get back...
Hochevar was on the Royals' big-league roster for much of last season. He disappointed with a 6-12 record and a 5.51 ERA in 129 innings. But from what I saw last week in Round Rock, Hochevar is on his way to turning it around, at least somewhat.
Although he may never live up to his number one pick status, Hochevar does have the stuff to have a long successful career as a middle of the rotation guy. If he can rebound mentally his ceiling may be a little bit higher.
He features a fastball, a slider, circle change, and a true curve ball.
The fastball, more of a cutter these days, stays in the low 90's with some late bite. The pitch isn't over powering but when he keeps it down it is very effective, especially inside to left handed batters. Hochevar shattered the bat of fellow prospect Brian Bogusevic's to lead off the bottom of the first inning in a game last week.
Hochevar's go-to pitch is his slider. He features two types - the out pitch, when he is ahead in the count that he throws around 86 to 87 mph that usually ends up in the dirt, and one he can throw for a strike coming in at about 84. Hochevar has spent a lot of time, according to his coaches, developing other pitches besides his cutter and slider, but when he needs to get an out it is clear he has the most confidence in his slider.
His circle change is a work-in-progress, but it proved effective against an aggressive Round Rock line-up. The Express are full of free swinging hitters, and Hochevar alertly used their aggression against them with his 74-mph changeup that fades down and away to right handed hitters.
Occasionally Hochevar will throw a slow, 12-6 curve in the mid-70s, but he didn’t use it until the second time around the lineup last week.
Hochevar doesn't have the kind of stuff to make mistakes in the zone, but at 25, he still has time to mature on the mound. He must keep the ball low and get groundball outs to have success.
Against Round Rock he forced five straight ground outs before recording his first strikeout to end the second inning, facing the minimum. Hochevar isn’t going to pile up big strikeout numbers – his slider is not a knockout pitch, and his fastball velocity is not going to miss bats on a regular basis -- he struck out 72 in his 129 innings for the Royals, so location and consistent command are key. He surrendered 12 long balls and issued 47 walks in 129 frames for KC last season, another indication that Hochevar's command is critical to his success.
He's not going to be a severe ground ball type, but if he sustains better than league average rates in that area, that bodes well for him.
| Kila Ka'aihue, 1B/DH – Omaha Royals |
The big 6-foot-3, 215 pound Hawaiian's bat makes a different sound than does his teammates during batting practice. I showed up to B.P. with a friend, who while a baseball fan and a beat writer didn’t know who I was there to see, and within four swings of the bat he asked, “That has to be the guy right?”
Ka'aihue had struggled up until the Round Rock series, going 1-for-22 entering his third series of the young season, although his one hit was a home run. He broke out of the slump against the Express, showing off his power as well as a good eye at the plate. After going two-for-two to start Wednesday’s game he patiently walked three times in a row.
There is definitely room for improvement at the plate, however. Right now Ka'aihue is a dead pull hitter, which is probably going to limit his ability to hit for consistent average in the big leagues. His open stance and quick, early hip action make it hard for him to stay inside the ball. Good pitchers have used this against him by peppering the outside corner with low fastballs and changeups off the plate.
While there are questions about his defense, the Omaha coaching staff believes there's upside there for Ka'aihue, and will play him at first five games out of six.
One scout that saw the slugger extensively last summer sees 25 home-run power in Ka'aihue's bat, with good on-base ability. "He's going to strike out, he has holes," the scout confirmed. "But he's going to get on base and wrap some doubles in the gaps and down the line. Nice player."
milb-notebook:-hochevar,-ka\'aihue
Comments
The following 20 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: bigcat on 04-23-2009 17:03:48 Jason if the Nats couldn't sign Crow how can they ever plan on signing Stras when he is gonna most likely want a guaranteed multi year big league contract worth some ungodly number right from the gate? and how would you compare Hochevar and Crow to Stras or is there no comparison he is that much better? |
| 2. By: Jay Yencich on 04-23-2009 18:21:02 I'd say Stras is a lot better, and the Nats can't pass on him and turn around and say to their fan base that they're committed to win. Especially not with Stras so far ahead of the rest of the pack. Jason, I think it got buried below, but thoughts on Rex Brothers? Where do you see him falling? |
| 3. By: Talkbaseball on 04-23-2009 21:22:39 No Clement in Tacoma for three straight days, any injury updates? Maybe that has contributed to the slow start. |
| 4. By: Slurve on 04-23-2009 23:15:22 Clement has a new child due to the fact he's a giant sexy beast. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-23-2009 23:41:23 While the Nats aren't passing on Strasburg, they certainly don't give a rats about their fan base, or they would have signed Crow and fired Bowden a year ago. The problem for Washington is, Strasburg can only pitch once a week. They have nothing else going for them. |
| 6. By: Real Baseball Intelligence on 04-24-2009 11:21:04 [Real Baseball Intelligence would know that spamming a site isn't very intelligent. Enjoy your banning!] |
| 7. By: rocketdawg31 on 04-24-2009 14:02:12 To me, Strasburg is better RIGHT NOW than any pitcher currently on their big-league roster. Or, scratch that... Better than anything they have in their system, period. Right now. It's really, reeeeeeeeeeeealllllly a bad team. Bad system. Bad organization, scary bad. The good news is that- keinen Herr Strasburg- there's five guys (Ackley, Crow, White, Miller and Matzek) who if the Mariners pick them #2, I'm happy. And one who'd make me ecstatic (Matzek), even if his name isn't Strasburg. Call me crazy, but I really think this draft is going to be the enduring imprint of the Zduriencik era, however long it lasts. One good draft, with lots of signings (think 33-35 out of 50)and high-end ceilings on who they do draft? And even moderate progress from some we already have? We'd be very close to a top 10-overall system- especially if they do the smart, long-range thing and trade established veterans when they can... And it'd be nice to get it up to snuff sooner rather than later, because Texas WILL eventually reap a lot of benefit from what they currently have in the minors. And Oakland always finds a way to develop a pest for us to have to deal with. Jason, I have virtually no information on one player: Ben Paulson. What are your thoughts on him, and what's his slot? Right now, slotting on several players seems all over the place! More than usual.... |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-24-2009 15:12:48 Ben Paulsen is a left-handed stick at Clemson, putting up solid numbers, but isn't a first-round prospect. He's probably the second best college 1B prospect in the draft behind UGA's Rich Poythress who has 20 bombs now. Paulsen is a lot like Raben, actually, without the possibility that he plays anywhere but first base, mostly because he hasn't played anywhere else. My questions with Paulsen are about his swing. He sets up with his hands low and too close to the pitcher for me, which means he has to move them up and back before swinging... which in turn forces him to commit early if he's to hit a good fastball. He's susceptible to fastballs up, too, though if the pitch stays in the zone, he'll cream it. Even though he's right-handed, I much prefer Rich Poythress, who is a poor man's Pat Burrell in terms of ability. Really good swing, power to all fields... He'll be gone by 27, probably, though. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-24-2009 15:17:11 big cat, That's why they WILL sign Strasburg. He won't get 30-50 million from anyone, not this year, next year, any year out of the draft, so the Nats will draft him, offer him 15-20 mil max, and call his bluff. He won't get more next year, not significantly more, so it doesn't make sense for Boras to hold his client out only to go back in the draft in 2010, even though Wash can't redraft him without the player's permission. re: Brothers If he was 6-3 or taller, he'd probably be a first-rounder, or a top 40 guy at least. I think he goes somewhere between 30 and 50. |
| 10. By: rjfrik on 04-24-2009 15:46:47 Jason, I'm wondering if you've scouted Michael Stanton of the Marlins? Is the next big bopper to come into the league. The guy absolutely tore the cover off the ball in A-ball. What is it with the Marlins anyways, their stockpile of young talent is absolutely insane, pitching, hitting, fielding..they have it all. This is your next powerhouse team. I read that their entire spring training roster was under 26 years of age!! Are you kidding me. I'm extremely envious and hope Z can make our system equally as rich. Also, we are in desperate need of a LH bat. If Clement can't get up here to provided that, do you see any player out there that is on the block or has peeked the M's interest who is a LHB? I feel like that is the last piece to win the division this year. thanks ron |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-24-2009 16:20:11 I have not seen him, but he's one of the most brought up players in the minors and may have the most upside power of anyone in the minors. In fact, I'd be shocked if someone else had more. The Marlins probably have one more wave of not keeping all of their young talent before they start locking them up. Hanley is in, but Hermida, Nolasco, Uggla, etc, probably are not. As for the LHB question... can you think of any team that is shopping anyone not making insane money on april 24? Me neither. And it's piqued, not peeked. Just wanted to rip you for that, because I feel like being a jerk and you didn't say anything dumb or ridiculous worth a snarky reply, damnit. I think the M's will have to wait a little while to get anything done to help the offense. Because even if there was a Lefty hitting OF out there to be had, where do you put him and who sits without upsetting the apple cart? Gonna sit Chavez 5 days a week and use him solely as a defensive guy and pinch runner? Ok. What about Wlad, who is out of options, has little value in trade right now because he's not playing regularly enough to establish himself in any manner, and Griffey... he's not going to be convinced to DH EVERY DAY. His knee and back aren't 100%, so right now it's fine. But in May when the weather gets better and he's feeling pretty good, he's going to push hard to play left. The only way that works out is if Wlad is included in the trade, but in that scenario, you're basically giving him away, because other clubs aren't valuing him much. |
| 12. By: safecochatter on 04-24-2009 16:42:52 with all the day 2 day inuries on the m's roster. it would seem wise to put one on the dl and bring up mike carp to play first. or is carp just not ready? even for a week or 2. |
| 13. By: marinerseric on 04-24-2009 16:48:41 I thought the Mariners would give Strasburg that much? Also I watched Felix throw last night, he seemed to have more movement with his fastball but less velocity. Is this the way its gonna be for him the rest of the season? If only Felix could take a page out of Washburns book and mix up his pitches.... |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-24-2009 19:08:22 Because none of the injuries to the 1B types are expected to keep anyone out longer than a week. And you can only retro a 15-day DL stint 7 days. Wouldn't make much sense to call Carp up for a week and have Sweeney or Branyan sit out a week longer than necessary. Felix has been mixing his pitches up just fine; 3.12 ERA, 27-9 K/BB ratio... looks good to me. |
| 15. By: bigcat on 04-24-2009 22:06:13 The thing with Felix is can he sustain this over the season. Id be more impressed and excited outta what Bedard and Washburn have shown thus far. Because you know what your gonna get outta Felix but if these 2 guys keep pitchin like this who knows what the M's could do this season. |
| 16. By: Mike Craven on 04-24-2009 22:41:45 So Jason you'd be upset if the M's took Purke? Or do you think people have soured on him to the point he really isn't an option at 2? |
| 17. By: Marlin Man on 04-24-2009 22:51:03 I was there watching Felix from behind the plate yesterday, and he WAS mixing em up pretty damn good- in fact he impressed the hell outta me. MM by the way Jason- I for one, think Wash. will pass on Strasburg- it's gonna come down to what we think we caan get him for- sure as hell hope if he does drop to us- we don't waste his time OR ours by not giving him whets needed to get him in th euniform MM |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-24-2009 23:24:43 Re: Craven I'm not a big Purke fan, upside wise. He's good, though. re: MM, There's no chance Wash passes. They have already told other clubs they are taking Strasburg. |
| 19. By: Blowgun7 on 04-25-2009 00:16:39 Great night in the system. Carp goes 4-5 with is fourth homer Clement goes 4-4 with his second homer Halman hits his fourth and fifth homers Pineda looks to have thrown an excellent game for High Desert. Aumont throws a scoreless frame with a couple of K's. Jason Vargas put up a nice line. Jason, when do we start to get excited about the trio of Pineda, Ramirez, and Adcock.. I've been impressed with their early season showings down in high A? Also, you got anything knew on Tyler Matzek? Is he still showing the ability to be a frontline guy and worth the #2 overall? |
| 20. By: Marlin Man on 04-25-2009 10:49:17 Respect your Opinion Jason- but hope you are wrong on Stras- just can't see how in th eheck they can't sign one this past year then go after one even more costly- doesn't make a lot of "commonn sense"- oh well- guess we find out in a couple months MM |
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