Prospect Insider - More arms on the farm

More arms on the farm

By Jason A. Churchill

By 08-04-2010

We've talked so much about Michael Pineda this season that the development of the rest of the arms in the system are going somewhat unnoticed ... so I thought I'd change all that.

While the system lacks any premium pitching after Pineda, there are some upside arms in the system such as sandwich-round pick Taijuan Walker, Venezuelan Summer League star Vicente Campos, Dominican left-hander Brandol Perez, Seon Gi Kim, South African right-hander Dylan Unsworth, George Mieses, and relievers Stephen Pryor, Josh Fields and Josh Lueke.

[Unsworth, Perez and Campos will be covered in depth in the upcoming Top 10 Latin American Prospects]

But I spoke to a couple members of the player development staff and the three names that produced the most enthusiasm were right-handers Dan Cortes and Steven Hensley and southpaw Mauricio Robles.

Cortes has been permanently moved to the bullpen where he belongs and has already touched 98 mph with his fastball. His curveball has been a bit sharper as well, though he still has some command and control issues to shore up.

"From day one," Jamie Navarro said, "that kid is going to be a closer. His fastball can sit 96-97, and the curveball can be filthy ... hard bite at 86-87 (mph)."

Cortes has tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings over five appearances in relief, walking three and whiffing 10. His pitch counts have been a little high, suggesting there is still some work to do, but this is where Cortes has a legit chance to make an impact in the major leagues.

"Without big improvement with the command, he's more of a 7th or 8th inning guy for me," said an AL scout. "But the stuff is really good."

Pryor, who was recently promoted from Everett to Clinton, has thrown 18 1/3 innings as a pro and produced a 26-7 K/BB ratio and yielded just seven hits -- three for extra bases. He's allowed one run and has sat 94-99 mph with the fastball. His slider is still slurvy at times and has sat 84-87, though he hasn't thrown it a lot.

One scout that saw him in Everett said Pryor still appears to allow the fastball to flatten out sometimes, which is due, at least in part, to his delivery -- he tends to open up a little early at times, and doesn't always finish the pitch.

"He's got the stopper fastball," the scout said. If the slider can give him a second out pitch, he'll be a ninth-inning option."

To continue with the relievers, Fields is due off the DL in the next several days, but the club is not sure right now whether they will activate him. It's for precautionary purposes as Fields' back has acted up numerous times this season. Prior to the injury, Fields "was pretty nasty," he just couldn't hold his delivery together to repeat it with command.

Lueke has dont nothing but impress scouts all season, and since the trade the M's staff has raved about the right-hander's "closer stuff."

"I was impressed," Navarro said after seeing Lueke's first outing in Tacoma. "He has good tempo and goes right after the hitters. He's overpowering."

Lueke has sat 93-96 mph with the fastball, but offers a plus slider and a plus splitter as well. "Oh, my gosh," Navarro said. "That's not good stuff, it's great stuff. You just don't see that kind of stuff get hit -- and there's movement on the fastball."

Lueke can throw the slider for strikes, too, which is key, since hitters that do their homework will not be able to lay off the pitch and sit fastball. "And even if they do, they're done for," the scout added.

Lueke is currently the best bet in the M's entire organization to close in 2011 if David Aardsma is moved this winter -- even over right-hander Brandon League.

Mauricio Robles and Steven Hensley may end up in different roles if and when they reach the big leagues, as Hensley's stuff may play up in the pen and allow him to speed up his delivery to max out his velocity.

Robles, however, despite his short stature at 5-foot-9, is a strong kid who can sit in the low-90s with his fastball. He's touched 96 even, but there are also starts where he's 89-92 -- which is above-average for a left-handed starter.

"He reminds me of Teddy Higuera," Navarro said after working with Robles during spring training. "The way he is being built up (developed) he can be another Higuera."

Higuera was Navarro's teammate in Milwauke from 1989-1994, going 94-64 with a 3.61 ERA and an ERA+ of 117. He also logged ERA+s of 162 and 156 and won 54 games from 1986-88.

I asked if Robles' lack of height would hurt him as far as durability goes and Navarro said he can go "200-plus (innings) per year, admitting that it's probably not wise to expect him to be the horse that Felix Hernandez has turned into over the past couple seasons.

Robles' best pitch is a plus changeup and one scout opined that he "pitches like Johan Santana," which was also a comparison Navarro had made. Just in style of attack, not in pure stuff, of course.

"The curveball is good," the scout said, "but it's not always good. If that becomes a consistent weapon for him, that's when I'll be convinced (he can start in MLB) even if he doesn't grow six inches."

Personally, I think the key for Robles is where he can settle in velocity wise and how much he can command the fastball, especially if he's sitting 89-91, rather than 92-94.

Hensley offers a fastball, slider, change and a split, that could be pared down if he were to shift to the pen, but still has a chance to start. He's still just 23 and has room for more development, particularly with command.

His slider has been his out pitch but his change has improved dramatically since the draft in 2008 that some believe it's his best offering right now. He's generally in the 89-92 mph range with a four-seam fastball that has some arm side run.

The splitter is a pitch he'll go to with two strikes if his slider is backing up on him, and it's been a useful pitch.

Like Cortes, Hensley could slide to the bullpen and turn into a legit 7th inning arm in the mold of a Shawn Kelley. If he remains in the rotation long term, his ceiling remains as a No. 4 starter.

more-arms-on-the-farm

Comments
The following 27 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: VikingArthur on 08-04-2010 21:24:58
Great report on the "other" guys. Wow... Lueke is a player it sounds like. A long term 1b, CL and a back of the rotation starter possibly for a rental player? Awesome.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-04-2010 21:29:44
Yeah, tough to call it anything but an "A" haul for less than three months of Cliff Lee and a few million bucks.

3. By: Mackie on 08-04-2010 22:18:37
Thanks for the good information. I have been following some of these guys' stats, and while their numbers have been looking good, stats only tell part of the story. An 'A' haul is right! Too bad more people don't see the Lee trade that way now, but in a few years when things are better in Seattle, I think lots of fans will be happy.

4. By: Blowgun7 on 08-04-2010 23:00:34
Talk about a power pen in a couple of years when you can have

Hensley
Fields
Cortes
Robles
Pryor
Kelley
Lueke

Jason, since we're on the topic of bullpen guys, do you think Paredes is a decent option as a lefty specialist? Also, what kind of repertoire does Anthony Varvaro have?

5. By: Lailoken on 08-04-2010 23:42:46
Great stuff as always. Can't wait to read about Perez, I almost anticipate his starts as much as Pineda's these days. Dominant starts from a 16 yo with a projectable frame? Yes please.

6. By: rjfrik on 08-05-2010 01:10:05
Lueke is going to be really really special. I honestly think he can have a Mariano Rivera career and become a HOFer. He has the stuff and makeup to do it.

I will say it right now.

Lueke will become the all time Mariners save leader after his career is over. I think he is going to be really really special.

7. By: StandinPat on 08-05-2010 01:55:15
So we got a potential late inning stud reliever(Cortes) for Yuniesky, and a solid back of the rotation candidate(Robles) for Washburn. Gotta love being on the winning end of the my current crap for your future potentially useful pieces trades.

8. By: VikingArthur on 08-05-2010 04:47:18
All the more maddening that we could not trade Aardsma and Lopez. The ONLY trade Z has pulled off that I don't like is the Morrow trade but I suppose his relationship with the front office was wrecked that they just had to move him, that can be the only explanation.

9. By: Uncle Al on 08-05-2010 06:46:18
Nice to see that a number of young Latin American pitching prospects are in the system. Now if we can only sign our #3, #11, #14, and #16 draft picks as well as #4 Paxton as that would put a lot of talent in the system. It would be nice to sign the #2 pick for more IF depth. We could still possibly land another International signing too.
Zduriencik couldn't get enough value for Aardsma and Lopez so he kept them and he hasn't given up on Kotchman yet. Not bad thinking for now as all three players are starting to bounce back from their lows as well as Figgins. Even though this year was a fiasco, some good things are happening and could really help in the off season. I'm just happy that this year didn't interfere with the rebuild and by this time next year, the M's should be in good position to make a run at it in 2012.

10. By: eknpdx on 08-05-2010 08:31:40
JAC, are you hearing anything good about Anthony Vasquez (recently promoted to AA)? Is he simply LOOGY, or is there more upside?

11. By: Edman on 08-05-2010 11:35:18
Geez #8, not trading Aardsma is maddening? Really? It's not like he's stunk it up this year. He hasn't been great, but all relievers have bad games. The difference is, they don't get all the innings that starters do, to absorb them. And Seattle hasn't had many opportunities for him to close out games.

Lopez I have no problem with. Though, nobody was going to give up much to get him. And, there's still a reasonable chance he gets traded this month.

Then, you reply that the only trade you didn't like was the Morrow trade. So, if that's true, then you should have faith in Jack that he knows that both Aardsma and Lopez were more valuable than the offers he received.

Personally, I don't think Seattle got offer much of anything for Lopez. Aardsma talk probably had more interesting names involved. But evidently not interesting enough for Jack.

12. By: Sarcasticus on 08-05-2010 12:31:52
Does Erasmo Ramirez at least project as a back of the rotation type, or is he too far out at this point to project?

Also, Poythress took over the MilB league in RBI last night. Does he still have something to work on in High Desert or are his numbers just league inflated?

Thanks in advance.

13. By: maqman on 08-05-2010 13:04:57
This season has been something of a dog's breakfast as they say here in England. I do like the look of the future though, GMZ has really improved the farm. I don't know if they will be prime by the 2013 season but they will be better, that I'm sure of.

14. By: VikingArthur on 08-05-2010 13:52:03
Yeah #11... Aardsma does nothing for us. He is a middling closer, I have little doubt that we can find a couple of guys to do the same job he has done. If someone would give us anything with any kind of upside for him I would have moved him in a heartbeat.

15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-05-2010 14:11:04
Blow,

I actually have some stuff on Paredes, too, but I'll just toss that in here...

He could turn into a lefty 'pen arm, sitting low-90s and coming from a lower-than true 3/4 arm slot. His slider is a running cutter type when he throws it hard and a sweeping type when he pulls the string a bit. He's still learning how to attack hitters from both sides of the plate, but there is enough stuff there to be a legit full-inning lefty.

Varvaro is a FB, CB, CH, guy, though I believe the CH is more like a split, a pitch he used in college at St. John's. He also has a slider, and can two-seam the fastball, too.

Middle reliever, spot starter ceiling.

Sarcasticus,

RBI mean zero. Poythress is still in HD because theres not a ton of value to send him up right now, and someone would have to get bumped. Having said that, I still think there is a shot he sees some time there this month, or in the playoffs.

It's not about having something to work on specifically in the Cal League, it's just in general. And you can much more easily work on things when it's not such a challenge to get through plate appearances.

Erasmo Ramirez is a strike thrower with a No. 5 ceiling at this point. He's still young enough to get stronger, make some adjustments and add velo to become more than that. But it hasn't happened yet.

eknpdx,

Vaz is also a strike thrower, but with more present velocity and a more polished game. He's also a back-end starter, as he's not likely to see a jump in velocity being 23 years old already -- unless he, too, moves to the pen.

At 6 feet and 185 pounds, he's not likely to be anything more than Jason Vargas at very best.

16. By: Edman on 08-05-2010 15:36:24
#14, OK, you can find someone else to do the job he has this year. Jack, however is looking at what he can provide next year and beyond. I'll work with Jack's data and resources.

17. By: VikingArthur on 08-05-2010 16:41:49
Edman... do you really think Aardsma is a legit closer on a decent team? He had a career year last year. He is just a guy.

18. By: Edman on 08-05-2010 16:44:25
You know that for a fact? You've got scouting reports. Manager's reports?

I don't know what Aardsma is. But, the Giants didn't draft him in the first round, because he lacks capability.

19. By: DKulich44 on 08-05-2010 16:53:58
#14, 17

If Jack would have been blown away at the deadline for Aardsma he would have made a deal. Like the Dotel and Capps deals, if one came like that, I think Jack would have said yes. Aardsma is as capable or possibly more capable of holding down the 9th inning as those two. The deal didn't come, and Jack was wise to hold on to what he had. He didn't ignore deals, in fact Jason reported that his name came up a lot, but couldn't get close to what Jack wanted for him. Considering the market, it was a wise move, as Aardsma has value to the Mariners next season, and perhaps more value to other teams this upcoming offseason. He's having another solid year this year, and if you're looking at Saves as your judge of a closer look no further than Seattle's record, you can't save games you don't win. Aardsma is putting together the same type of season (albeit with worse luck in the HR/FB departmentt, as expected) as he did last year and will certainly have some value going forward.

You don't trade away assets for nothing just to make a move, that's foolish.

20. By: Tommy O on 08-05-2010 17:15:24
I'm not sure how anyone can not give the Lee any grade but and "A". Z robbed Phily and Tex. By 2012-13 we'll have one heck of a team. Either this offseason with trades or in the next years draft the IF of the future will be complete with a 3B or two. I'd love to see him pry Sandoval from SF.

21. By: d2ret on 08-05-2010 19:06:51
Love the idea of having shut down closer types in the 7th and 8th innings, to go with the legit closer. Shorten the game up. That was a big part of the success on the record breaking 2001 M's club with Rhodes and Nelson. Great to hear of the assortment of special young talent coming up there.

Where does Cleto fit into this mix? What chances Jason, do you give him to remain a starter in the bigs?

22. By: 200tang on 08-05-2010 22:17:25
Thought I asked this earlier but I guess not. What's the word on Forrest Snow? He's off to a great start early in his pro career.

23. By: d2ret on 08-05-2010 22:34:21
Baltimore, AZ, and Pit all won today rjfrik!!

24. By: Blowgun7 on 08-05-2010 23:06:44
Baltimore is doing there best to drag us into the Rendon discussion. I'm not getting excited yet though, don't want to get the heart broken like with Strasburg.

It's scary though how perfectly Rendon fits into the M's. We desperately need power at DH and 3B going forward with few options currently in the system, particularly at 3B.

You add that guy and you have three legit young stars to build your team around for 5-6 with Rendon, Smoak, and Ackley.

Anyway, the consolations aren't bad. George Springer looks like a huge bat that would probably end up in LF and make Saunders trade bait in a couple years.

And then there are the arms like Cole, Barnes, Gray, etc.. who would give us a really strong Top 3 with Felix and Pineda.

But yeah, Rendon fits this team absolutely perfectly given our needs and current crop of young players/prospects.

25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-06-2010 13:26:36
re: Cleto, Snow

Snow is a fringe starter, works better in the pen for me.

Cleto has the delivery and the velocity to remain in the rotation, but his secondary stuff has not developed nearly enough yet.

And while Rendon is terrific and the No. 1 prospect, it's not like George Springer sucks and wouldn't be a fit.

65 power, 55 hit tool, 60 range, 60 arm, 60 speed. Dude can play.

26. By: rjfrik on 08-06-2010 14:03:33
yeah. we have gained two games on Baltimore over the last week. I guess they like what Old Buck is preaching as they've won 3 in a row. Rendon or Springer will be the pick I think for us. Honestly I would be happy with either, a little more happy with Rendon though.

27. By: Blowgun7 on 08-06-2010 19:30:37
Jason, can Springer play a decent CF? I saw Keith Law allude to the fact he could probably play there. He seems like an ideal right fielder, but I fully expect Ichiro to be our right fielder for about another 5-6 years.

Is Stanton a good comp for Springer?

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