Prospect Insider - More on M's interest in Upton

More on M's interest in Upton

By Jason A. Churchill

By 11-19-2010

I just don't see it.

I could stop there, but that would be too easy.

There are reasons why I do not believe it will happen. There are reasons why I do not believe it can happen. And there are reasons why I do not believe it should happen.

Will
Kevin Towers is dangling Justin Upton because he wants to speed up the process in Phoenix. He wants to acquire the starting pitching that makes his Diamondbacks contenders immediately. He's not going to settle for one pitching prospect, and infield prospect that the club doesn't necessarily need right now -- who may not be able to help right away anyway -- and filler.

Therefore, the Mariners, in order to land Upton, have to make Michael Pineda, Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin and Franklin Gutierrez all available, and hope the Diamondbacks will agree to substitute the position players for the pitching they so desire, despite the fact that other clubs, such as the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals, have the kind of young pitching Arizona will covet.

It's far less than a pipe dream.

Can
Too many clubs can match and exceed what the Mariners have to offer, and are in a better position to do so. At least 16 clubs showed interest in Upton this week, and that could grow if the talks get past the preliminary stages.

The M's can get Upton, but only if Towers changes his entire philosophy on team building, because they don't have the pitching to send out, and getting a third team involved complicates things even more.

Should
The Seattle Mariners have a few pieces that fit on a contending roster. Felix Hernandez, Ichiro, Gutierrez, ad perhaps a bullpen arm or two. But they have a solid shot for that to grow to six or seven within the next two years with the presence of Pineda, Smoak, Ackley and Franklin.

Trading three of them sets the club's rebuild back, and adding Upton only fills one of those holes, even though it's impossible for anyone with a brain to disagree that he's among the most physically gifted players in baseball.

There's also the question of how healthy Upton's shoulder is. The shoulder is a joint that can crush a player's ability to hit for power, if at all, and unless the M's can get some level of guarantee that the shoulder is not going to be a problem, that's a risk in and of itself without even considering the trade cost.

In the end
If the price comes way down and the M's can get Upton for Pineda, Franklin, Brandon League and Dan Cortes, I'm for it -- as long as the club feels really good about the shoulder. But it sure sounds like the cost is going to prohibitive and then some, and such a package actually sets the M's back another year or so.

If they add Upton and it costs them Pineda, Franklin and Smoak, how do the Mariners compete for the next five years, even in the mediocre American League West, without a first baseman, shortstop and any semblance of frontline pitching after Felix Hernandez?

The answer is they probably don't. They don't have tons of money to spend on free agents, and while they will gain some flexibility after '11, Upton would start to gobble up some of that with his own contract that pays him $6.75 million in 2012 and $9.75 million in 2013, raises from the $4.25 he'll earn next season.

How in the world do they fill out a good roster without doing a good portion of it from their own farm system? It's just not possible without the club raising its payroll significantly and into the $140 million range, and that isn't happening anytime soon.

The M's are on the right path right now. They have a pair of middle infield prospects with high probability tags, a chance at a legit No. 2 starter in Pineda that they control for six years and a first baseman that could be all-star quality as early as 2011 or 2012.

General manager Jack Zduriencik has put the M's in a position to potentially compete for the long haul. Gutting the organization to add one player make zero sense, no matter how good he may be. And adding Mark Reynolds and/or Chris Young to the deal doesn't help much.

And that's another thing. There are no guarantees that Upton is a superstar. He's had one really good season, and while I am not suggesting he will not be good, I'd bet against superstar status and settle in on all-star.

Trading three or more potential solid regulars for one potential all-star with a decent but not great chance to be a superstar is not how the Mariners are going to get where the Texas Rangers are right now.

My best guess is that Upton stays put or ends up in St. Louis, Boston or some other city not in the Pacific Northwest. And barring Towers losing his mind, that will be a good thing for M's fans.

more-on-m\'s-interest-in-upton

Comments
The following 35 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: AntsInIn on 11-19-2010 14:19:16
ok ok fine, we'll just move on I guess...though I find it interesting that you don't mention Saunders or Cortes going back to AZ to replace Upton/boost their bullpen.

I guess visions of an Upton/Goots/Ichiro OF are just pipe dreams....

2. By: JonathanAicardi on 11-19-2010 14:31:19
It doesn't seem like upton's all that much a fit anyway. A right-hander with increasing flyball rates who strikes out A LOT. He's not exactly going to get the most out of his blunders combining 60% of every schedule between seattle and oakland.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2010 14:47:11
AntsInIn,

I did mention Cortes. Re-read, it's in the last section. Saunders has so little value that it doesn't make nearly enough difference whether he is in a trade offer or not.

4. By: marinermutt on 11-19-2010 15:10:13
Of the group of Smoak, Ackley, Franklin, and Pineda, only Pineda is a person who I would give up. Though I like Upton, he is right handed and we all know how Safeco eats right handed power hitters.

Smoak showed the last couple weeks of the season why Jack insisted on him in the Lee deal. I know it is a short time frame, but I think switch hitting first basemen with power and on base ability are hard to find. And Ackley, minus the power is the same with outstanding on base skills.

Why Pineda? Because Safeco allows you to have average pitchers and still be successful (see Fister & Vargas). I think those types of pitchers are easier to find than good on base skilled hitters.

5. By: Edman on 11-19-2010 15:13:29
I do find it amusing that some think that if you ad marginal pieces, somehow that increases another team's interest.

It's not about quantity, but quality. I'm sure that any team would rather have two really good prospects, than one really good one, and four marginal (or a little better) prospects.

Every GM will listen to what Towers has to say, but that doesn't equate to anything more than a passing interest. Upton won't be a Mariner, unless Towers suddenly drinks stupid juice. Trades require a fit, and giving up more of what another team doesn't need, isn't going to get a deal done.

6. By: jgstecker on 11-19-2010 15:16:18
I agree with Aicardi (who has to be praying his fantasy keeper RF doesn't end up in Safeco). He's not the best fit. It could take some time for him to mature into an elite hitter here in Seattle and in the AL. He'll likely put up some Beltre-like numbers for a while, and that didn't really fly with the fans too well.

How well does he compare to Saunders going forward? Taking Safeco into consideration, is the upgrade worth the price? Personally, I'd rather see Smoak and Saunders out there than Upton and Old Guy Firstbaseman.

My bottom line is like Churchill's I suppose. Pineda and Franklin, plus stuff, and I'd do it.

7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2010 15:24:12
While I disagree with the final paragraph, mutt, I agree with the sentiment. The problems is, the M's lack mid-rotation quality arms, too, and would also have to buy those on the free agent market.

And if they give up a huge chunk of their system for Upton, they'd lack a lot of the talent that would normally be available to acquire pitching via trade.

That puts an awful lot of pressure on Zduriencik to never make a mistake and to find impact players for below market value. That's an unrealistic environment to expect a front office to work and build a consistent winning roster.

8. By: MoneyMike on 11-19-2010 15:25:21
Just read Baker's article with the opposite take...what a loon. Gutting the system for Upton is not the right answer. I have to agree with Jason on this one.

9. By: erikec on 11-19-2010 15:38:20
Upton's drop in production is kind of alarming, especially at such a young age. He dropped in batting average, home runs, extra base hits, while striking out more and hitting into twice as many double plays last year. Playing at Safeco, his home runs and RBIs would probably drop even more, comparable to Gutierrez or Saunder's numbers. I don't see why the Mariners would want to sell the farm to get him. Ask yourself why Arizona wants to get rid of him? They want to win now, really? I think they are affraid his best days are behind him.

10. By: baseballman on 11-19-2010 15:46:49
Wow, I just read Bakers take on Upton...umm well...i dont want to rude but that guy is...(you can fill in the blank)

No way do the Ms part with any 2-3 of Pineda, Ackley, Smoak or Franklin. Baker is crazy if he thinks the Ms are better with a RH bat with shoulder problems who isnt even cheap, that is not more valuable to this team at its current state than Pineda, Ackley, Smoak or Franklin.

For what it seems it will cost for Upton, no way do we even think about acquiring him. The Ms have finally started building the farm again, why on earth would they gut it for a corner OF who might not be the best fit and possibly will have shoulder issues? oh ya, they wouldnt.

11. By: nwmsfan on 11-19-2010 15:48:44
I dont get Baker's article either Mike, i'm pretty sure I remember Baker scorning the bedard trade when it didn't work out. He shows very little understanding of player evaluation whether it be regulars or prospects. How would you be able to replace 1B, 2B (assuming ackley sticks) and SS (if franklin is in the deal) PLUS Pineda? Vargas and Fister are nice back end guys but we need another power arm that can generate strikeouts at the top. His article is about reloading quickly but how he hell do you do that with no infield or pitching?

Jason, I noticed you said Saunders has little trade value. Is that due to service time or the fact teams aren't high on him. I hope he gets the chance to stick in LF out of spring training, have you heard anything otherwise?

12. By: eknpdx on 11-19-2010 15:54:19
"That puts an awful lot of pressure on Zduriencik to never make a mistake and to find impact players for below market value. That's an unrealistic environment to expect a front office to work and build a consistent winning roster."

Well said JAC. This statement sums it up. We need talent throughout the roster, not just in a few spots. Moving just solid talent still sets you back.

Just curious Jason, what are your thoughts on 3B Mark Reynolds? For a team like ours, I see little risk if the price is right in trade.

13. By: unitispat on 11-19-2010 15:59:22
Just talking about trading everything away that Jack has built for 1 guy makes me angry. Its about time someone in the M's blogosphere has come out and said it's a bad idea. If this trade happens and we lose ANY of the Franklins, DA, Smoak, or Pineda, I am done as a Mariners fan. Now if we get several pieces, I would be open to something. I cant go through Bedard 2.0.

With all that said, Im 110% positive that Jack is not that stupid and I am not worried about it happening. Im sure 1 or 2 may not pan out, hell maybe they all dont, but at least next year we have something interesting to watch. Player developement. And who knows I have faith in all of them except Pineda and he's not far behind on my radar.

In GMZ I trust.

14. By: subterranean on 11-19-2010 16:01:07
I don't happen to agree with Baker, but I do see his point - Upton is an upgrade in 2011 and beyond. I do think he overvalues the immediate upgrade, but I agree that we are looking at 2012 for Ackley to really be a productive position player and we still aren't certain what that position is. And Franklin is still 2-3 years away (or more before he is playing at an all-star level, if he even reaches that level). Even if we rely on the farm system and all these prospects pan out we are pushing up against the end of Felix's contract before we even look formidable.

15. By: d2ret on 11-19-2010 16:15:08
The way im looking at this: If we're looking at Upton, why not just go after Rasmus who is left-handed, can play CF, and will cost a bit less in prospects, and a lot less in money.

16. By: Jerry on 11-19-2010 16:19:11
Edman,

How do you know its going to be about quality over quantity? I'm not saying that adding marginal guys is going to get it done, but if the Diamondback are looking to speed up their return to contention, and are focused on ML ready guys instead of prospects like Jason says, they will probably want a bit of both: a few high upside guys, plus a handfull of players who can start for them and provide cheap production.

Depth matters. Perhaps Jack Z's best trade, the Putz deal, was based on quantity over quality. The only high upside guy we got was Cleto, who wasn't exactly an elite prospect. Instead, the valuable chips we got were more solid players, like Gutierrez, Vargas, Chavez, and Heilman. And that trade worked out like a charm.

One other thing that I think bears mentioning is that, in the past two offseasons, I have noticed that a lot of trades for big-name players are getting done for surprisingly little. Teams just don't seem to want to give up elite prospects anymore. Look at how little we got Lee for. The recent trades for David DeJesus and Dan Uggla also cost the respective teams very little.

Obviously, Upton is a totally different type of player. But I wonder if we aren't overestimating what it will cost to get him. The other clubs who have the pieces to get it done, like the Royals and Rangers, are likely to be just as concerned about dealing away their farm systems as the M's would be. Obviously, we won't know what the best package will be until he gets moved. But I have to wonder if it will cost less than we might think. This will be interesting to watch, as guys like Upton don't get dealt often.

I would love to see Jack go after him if the price isn't exorbitant. The guy has Griffey-like tools. If I were Jack, I would consider going after him as one of several moves. They could always deal Ichiro, Aardsma, Gutierrez, and Figgy to bring back some young players, then package some of them for Upton. It would help offset the cost to the farm system, and bring in some pitching to send to AZ. You could definitely move Gutierrez, as Upton would be decent in CF. I wouldn't see this as a lateral move, since Upton is only 23. You'd have Smoak, Felix, Upton, and perhaps Ackley (if you could work out a deal without moving him) all hitting their primes at the same time.

Regardless, this is shaping up to be a pretty interesting offseason. Can't wait to see what happens when Jack gets involved.

17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2010 16:19:32
d2ret has a good point. I am in.

18. By: d2ret on 11-19-2010 16:19:56
Neither is going to happen though. Would love to see Rasmus for Guti++.

19. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-19-2010 16:25:46
Lotss of points to cover here, lot's of points. First off I agree with "unitispat" to some degree. I will not quit being a Mariners fan until the day I die, however, unless the Diamondbacks asking price comes way down, I don't see a deal happening. A piece like Justin Upton would be a significant upgrade to this ball club.

For those of you knocking Upton as a right handed hitter, you need to look at the fact that Justin has the ability and track record for that matter to spray the ball and go deep occasionally to the entire diamond. So let's just shoot that theory down right now. Secondly Upton is young and you'd be able to control the rights to him until 2015. So you're trading youth for youth. He's the ideal #3 hitter on your ball club and hasn't even reached his potential or peak yet.

There's no way I'd include Pineda, Franklin, Smoak, and Ackley in any deal, I don't care if it's for Albert Pujols! Well maybe big Al. But Upton hasn't even been able to stay healthy for an entire season. I can see Pineda and a package, but that's mostly because we hold the 2nd pick in next year's draft, and assuming the Pirates take Rendon with the first pick, there's a cache of young arms in the first ten picks of the draft, a VERY deep draft. He could probably be replaced, with a Gerrit Cole or Matthew Purke, who project to be staff aces.

To me Ackley is untouchable, unless you're trading him straight up for someone like Justin, which would be foolish. Smoak is a lock at first base. Jack Z fought so hard to get him from Texas for Cliff Lee, and would'nt have made the deal with the Rangers if he wasn't included, which would have meant that Jesus Montero would've been our guy. This team needs big boppers. Smoak could very well be an All-Star someday along with Michael Pineda. This team just got the farm system re-stocked up to a respectable status. I don't think Jack is gonna mortgage the farm for one potentially injured superstar, unless it's the right deal.

I'm not totally in favor of the deal mostly because the D'backs asking price is way too high right now. Let's just hope someone like Texas or Anaheim, heck even Oakland, they way they're playing the stock market right now get him in our division.

Deal or No Deal?

No Deal Howie!!

20. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-19-2010 16:28:27
I forgot to add the word "DON'T" in front of "get him" in my last post. LOL! Sorry bout that.

21. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-19-2010 16:31:10
Another thing I forgot to add, Jack Z told Shannon Drayer today that Michael Pineda will be added to the 40 man roster. Z even said that he let the cat out of the bag early. Just for some of those wanting to know, if you even care.

22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2010 16:33:53
We're waiting for the announcement, but Pineda was a no-brainer.

23. By: eknpdx on 11-19-2010 16:37:05
Think Lueke will be added?

24. By: Fireballer55 on 11-19-2010 16:54:53
Hey Jason,
Can upton play CF at all? Decent or bad?
If he could play CF to an average or slightly better I wouldn't mind dealing Guti to another to or Arizona to make the deal. If Jack Z believes that Upton can play CF and hit like he is thats a good improvement if it was for Guti, Pineda and another piece or two. But if its your like were mentioning that it would take 2-4 TOP TOP guys....no thanks. We need to build multiple positions soon not one.

25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2010 17:04:18
ek, yes, probably.

Fireballer55,

I think he can. He was moved because Young is a little better in center, but he may be able to handle it. Worth a shot. Though at Safeco, not sure that is a great idea. Takes a lot of out of a player.

And not to pick on you, because you're 100% correct IMO -- Gutierrez, Pineda and one other piece not Franklin or Ackley, sure. But this is the type of package that will make Towers giggle inside. It's not nearly enough to pry him away.

I think it would take the top three prospects or two plus Smoak, plus Cortes and Saunders or something like that.

I'm not even sure Boston is going to be willing to part with what it will take to get Upton, either. If you are Towers, aren't you asking for both Kelly and Buchholz, plus Rizzo or Anderson and maybe a relief piece or two? Heck, I'd ask for the two arms, Iglesias, Doubront and Kalish and back off on Kalish and Iglesias if they included Rizzo and Ellsbury.

But I'm not backing off on the two starters. If that means no deal, so be it. I don't have to trade Upton by any means. He's affordable, young and developing and will be for awhile.

26. By: Edman on 11-19-2010 17:16:16
Jerry, the Diamondbacks aren't in nearly the same shape as Seattle was when Jack took over. The Seattle farm system was horrible. Not to mention that they traded Putz, who is not an Upton type talent. I didn't say what it's going to be, but the point is that some believe that if you backfill a trade with more quantity, that somehow it offsets a lack of quality. That's simply not true. More bodies doesn't make for a better trade.

I don't agree that Upton is Griffey-like. He's very good, but he's not the defensive player Griffey was, and does not project to be the same kind of power hitter. Trading your better players in Ichiro, Figgins and Guttierez, to make it even more difficult to be competative just to get Upton is a bit foolhearty, IMHO. Great teams never center around one player. As good as Pujois is, it takes more than Albert to make a good team. Upton makes more sense to a team that is a couple of pieces away from being a great team, than one that's down to its Queen and a pawn trying to defend the kingdom.

Fireballer, Upton doesn't need to play CF, worse comes to worse, they could move Ichiro there.

I think it's a moot point, however.

27. By: marinermutt on 11-19-2010 17:29:07
Why does anyone still bring up Ichiro getting traded?

28. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2010 18:12:56
mutt,

For fun?

29. By: Blowgun7 on 11-19-2010 18:58:41
Just not gonna happen.

I wouldn't give up more than Pineda, Guti or Franklin, Saunders, Cortes... or something like that..

And that won't get it done.

The thing is the M's top young players, are all pretty close to the big leagues.. and you can feel pretty confident that Smoak, Ackley, Pineda, and Franklin are going to be pretty good major leaguers barring injury...

This isn't like dealing away 3 or 4 guys, where a couple of them are in A ball and could end up busting..

The M's top four young talents are all pretty safe bets to be pretty good.. When you have that, you just can't let that go.. there is way too much value in those guys given how close they are to the majors and their salaries over the next handful of years..

30. By: rjfrik on 11-19-2010 20:02:46
I agree with dret and Churchill. Go after Rasmus. That is the young player Jack should be targeting.

Jason, in your opinion, what would it take to land Colby? Do you have any inside info in what the Cardinals would want?

Would Saunders, Beavans, Leuke, League get it done?

31. By: Blowgun7 on 11-19-2010 21:52:56
You are talking about the same players to get Upton, as you would with Rasmus, just probably not as many of them..

You aren't getting that level of player for our second tier guys

32. By: ripperlv on 11-20-2010 08:49:25
I believe that the Cliff Lee trade defined the direction of the franchise. I also believe JZ will stick to rebuilding with talented youth, and he was just kicking the tires when he talked to Towers. I wish we could trade our old timers for some talented youth with power in the corners, but atlas, I know better, just checking my wish list.

33. By: maqman on 11-20-2010 13:52:21
Just say no thanks.

34. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 11-20-2010 17:45:31
I believe Upton has shown more power or similar power as Griffey at this point in their careers. Next year is only Upton's age 23 season for heavens sake. And here is what is objectively worth it and what is not, at least from my perspective.

Smoak/Pineda not worth it.
Smoak/Ackley not worth it.

Smoak/Franklin worth it.
Pineda/Ackley worth it.
Pineda/Franklin worth it.
Ackley/Franklin worth it.

35. By: StandinPat on 11-21-2010 16:14:36
I don't know that I'd put Smoak's value higher than Ackley's. Sure Smoak is likely to be a more valuable hitter, but finding offense at 1B is a bigillion times easier than finding the kind of offense Ackley could provide at 2B.

Personally I wouldn't trade any of Smoak/Ackley/Pineda for Upton. Each one of those guys has the ability to be extremely valuable pieces of your future core, and they'd make less over the next 6 years combined.

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