| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-27-2011 |
The new draft rules that bring limits to the amount of money clubs can spend on the draft and international signings. In general, I do not like those new regulations, but the Seattle Mariners may actually benefit from each.The M's have done some serious damage in the draft the past three seasons, and have spent a good amount of money. The M's, however, have done so without "overpaying" a number of picks in each class, with the major exception being James Paxton in 2010. Still, Paxton didn't break the bank and the M's spent a reasonable amount of money on each class since the new regime took over the reins.
Using the 2009, 2010 and 2011 draft classes as the sample, the M's appear to be out-scouting the majority of the league. That's not to say they have been perfect or haven't made mistakes, but the same can be said for any and all clubs without exception.
The Mariners have been getting value after the first few rounds, such as Kyle Seager, Vincent Catricala, Paxton and Stephen Pryor, and this past year's class could boast similar value in Carter Capps.
The M's will still be counting on their scouting department, led by Scouting Director Tom McNamara, and their ability to recognize big-league baseball players in an amateur athlete. The new rules aren't likely to hinder the M's chances to continue to rebuild their organization since they are willing to spend money on payroll and have valuable assets to trade. They aren't the Pirates, Royals or Indians, who have to rely on their farm system and player development staffs as well as trades for inexpensive parts. The M's can -- and will -- be a factor in free agency.
The M's, of course, won't be the only ones that may actually benefit from the new draft rules in terms of gaining ground on their rivals, as clubs such as the Boston Red Sox, san Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies and soon the Chicago Cubs, also scout and develop well.
Internationally, the Mariners are solid, as Bob Engle continues to work his magic, and generally gets great value from players that were not top international prospects such as Michael Pineda.
I don't expect these new regulations to hurt any team that is already a strong presence in Latin America. Those teams don't simply buy the best talents, they find impact players beneath the luster of the top prospects.
The new Super Two arbitration rules don't figure to impact the M's a whole lot until the offseason after 2013, when Ackley will almost certainly qualify for Super Two status. There may be some smaller cases that year with the likes of Seager and Casper Wells, and Justin Smoak could qualify after 2012. If he has a healthy season and performs some, he'll break seven figures as a Super Two. If he hits that well, however, he may be a candidate for a multi-year solution, as will Ackley the following year.The new 22-percent rule could impact Tom Wilhelmsen and Charlie Furbush in a few years, too.
Overall, the strength of the M's organization may be highlighted by the new structures of the latest collective bargaining agreement, and while it won't speed up their progress toward contention, it may hinder the Mariners less than several other clubs, especially those that rely on spending money to find amateur talents.
new-rules-help-mariners
Comments
The following 4 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: MarinersArmy on 11-28-2011 01:11:04 Jason, This blogger seems to disagree with you... " Major League Baseball essentially just eliminated the value of international scouting. By drastically depressing bonuses and taking away teams ability to invest in amateur talent, the most talented players are now simply going to be weighing similar offers from every team. This is an absolutely awful decision by Major League Baseball, as they’ve decided to prioritize the lowering of total costs over the ability for teams to compete through different player acquisition strategies. The Mariners just lost one of their best assets, and now are going to have to come up with some way to offset their loss of a low-cost talent pipeline established through years of hard work. " Not trying to start up a blog war, but trying to determine if this new international cap (which is also a variable cap value based on W-L per season) really does good or bad for the M's. I guess if you're finding the gems that other teams are just not seeing (ie - Pineda) then it doesn't really matter; that's a plus to the M's for great scouting. But what about players that are highly touted and everyone does know about? (ie - Chapman, Cespedes) Just trying to understand better... |
| 2. By: nater on 11-28-2011 11:57:58 In my opinion, good organizations don't care if the rules of the game change, they just adapt and learn how to "win the game" no matter what the rules are. That said, it seems to me the new international signing rules basically just make it impossible for a team to go in and throw tons of money at the top prospects, which, as has been stated, the M's don't do anyway. However, they are one of the bigger spenders in Latin America, so it certainly seems like they will have to change their strategy, but I believe what the MLB is trying to do is depress the market down there, so teams don't HAVE to throw millions at a 16 year-old maybe prospect in rural Venezuela. Put another way, I think what MLB has done is give the clubs a bargaining tool. As Jason says, I don't think this ultimately helps or hurts the Mariners much, because the real value is in the quality of their scouting. I think the other blogger is over-reacting a bit. |
| 3. By: PositivePaul on 11-28-2011 12:13:31 I always have said that it's super easy to scout the best talent, so throwing high recommendations on players who clearly are elite prospects is easy to do. What's challenging is finding those diamonds-in-the-rough players who have some talent buried behind some thick-crusted ugliness. Guys like Charlie "Orange Jello" Kerfeld (who I still wish the M's didn't jettison) are able to see those types of players and get some amazing value, even if it isn't 'elite' talent. You have to fill out a farm system AND a major league roster -- unless you're the Yankees, you aren't gonna have all-stars at every position. Scouts that are able to find solid MLB regulars, whether internationally, in the draft, or via other markets, are priceless treasures. Fortunately, the M's seem to have pretty good ones. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-29-2011 01:05:19 MarinersArmy, The new rules do two things: They prevent clubs from spending 'whatever it takes' to get the player under contract, and it forces them to be better scouts in Lat Am and in Asia. And by scout better I don't simply mean be better at scouting the player's abilities, I mean get in early, develop a rapport with the player, his coaches and trainers and his family. That is why kids sometimes pick Seattle over the Yankees despite the Yankees offering a little more dough. So the clubs that already do this well, and the ones that find big talent beneath the obvious, have an advantage because they already weren't relying on spending $2-plus million every year on a Latin American kid. The M's have done that once, almost twice, but generally they take shots at the diamonds in the rough, and with Bob Engle at the helm, they aren't as tough to see, he's that good. So yes, the new rules help the Mariners, because now their best talents as an organization are magnified while other teams try to figure out how to get it done. In essence, MarinersArmy, that blogger is incorrect. |
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!
|
|
 |
|
|
| Copyright 2010 Prospect Insider | Created by AQ Central Prospect Insider is optimized for Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome |