| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-09-2010 |
The winter moves may seem over and done with, but let me assure you, they are not.
In fact, there's a chance, though it's unlikely, that two more impact players could be added to the M's roster between now and the end of spring training, and the route in which they'd be arriving could be by way of free agency or trade.
Subscribers can catch the details right here, and catch what I have dug up on the starting pitching market and how the M's may choose to add that arm, what the Mariners have in store for payroll and what they think of the second-base market.
If you are not yet a subscriber, Click Here to become one and gain access to any and all premium content, which will soon include juicy pieces of the dual handbook.
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Comments
The following 68 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: JohnMcD on 01-09-2010 02:26:43 Great post! If you aren't a suscriber, well you should be! Can't to see what the M's next move is! |
| 2. By: mymrbig on 01-09-2010 10:55:10 Jason, the pitch f/x guns seem to disagree slightly with the scouts on Harang's slider. According to the fangraphs data, his average slider velocity ranged from 82.2 to 83.2 from 2004-07. But his average slider in 2008-09 has been 81.1 and 81.5. Don't know if it is significant, but losing 1 mph off your slider over the course of hundreds of sliders might be making a difference. Also, the pitch type value of his slider (a run value is assigned based on the results of each pitch thrown and then compared to all other results of the same kind of pitch by other pitchers) has decreased a lot. In 2006 and 2007, the pitch run value of his slider was 1.28 and 1.74 runs above-average per hundred sliders thrown. Basically a good to very good pitch, but not elite. But in 2008 and 2009, his slider ended up being -1.27 and -1.13 runs below average per hundred sliders thrown. Even if you disagree with the run value assigned for certain results, that is a pretty significant difference in the results for his slider. I'm not disagreeing, just pointing out that the numbers don't necessarily coincide with the scouts on this one. But great stuff! |
| 3. By: chrisd on 01-09-2010 11:53:30 After reading your post about SP's and trades, it made me realize that the Morrow trade needed to happen because Jack and Wak and pitching staff must have believed that Morrow was not going to be an effective starting pitcher. THEY WOULD KNOW MORE THAN ANYONE. All of the rumbling on the blogs about it being a "bad" trade is not backed by the knowledge that these teams officials have. And yet even if Morrow turns out to be a #2, it was still a necessary trade. It is great to know that Jack can be trusted to make a highest percentage move for this club. Something we have never had. I did not feel this will Gillick, Bavasi, Woodward, or any of the others. I still pinch myself to make sure Jack is for real. And he will keep Lopez here as long as he is our best optiuon at 2nd base. |
| 4. By: Chris Crawford on 01-09-2010 11:57:35 Just a warning for everyone. I realize that we don't have a premium forum, but please don't give away all of the information from the posts. Jason works very hard on this stuff, and for him to charge so little is a blessing, lets keep it that way. Call it a pre-emptive strike, haha. |
| 5. By: FatBat on 01-09-2010 11:58:31 Still, I can't get over Harang on a subpar team, in GABP! Safeco can be as comforting as a warm blanket to pitchers. Some pitchers radicaly change! Aardsma comes to mind right away, his 08 season? I think we were all thinking "why did we get this guy?" A lot comes into play as well, pitching coach, team makeup, and comfortability. But as long as he has been keeping his Velo up all season and his K's per 9 innings are still good, I would take a serious look at what they want! Great info. Jason! We are all wondering where the M's are at this stage of the game, and what there focas may be. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-09-2010 12:13:22 mymrbig, The slight velo diff in the breaking ball isn't very important like it is with FB/CH, because it relies on movement, not velocity, to be an effective pitch. So while the pitch fx numbers are generally as correct as any other measure of velocity, it's irrelevant in the assessment of Harang. |
| 7. By: baseballman on 01-09-2010 12:42:33 I dont get how people arent suscribers, they are really missing out! Good stuff JAC. I would def be fine with either one of those guys because they would make us a better team. |
| 8. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-09-2010 12:43:54 Any news about the M's linked to Johnny Damon, say for $7-8MM on a one-two year deal? |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-09-2010 12:54:07 Nope. No Damon. |
| 10. By: Lombardie360 on 01-09-2010 13:11:32 I just subscribed but it keeps wanting me to log in every time I click on the subscriber link. what am I not getting? |
| 11. By: FelixElRey on 01-09-2010 13:17:17 Should we have considered Glaus for 1B? He was signed for pretty cheap. I don't have an opinion either way, just curious. |
| 12. By: Chris Crawford on 01-09-2010 13:30:09 Lombardie, it should work now. Thanks. |
| 13. By: JohnMcD on 01-09-2010 13:51:43 Chris, mine is doing the same thing as Lombardie. I have been a suscriber for a while and I remember it has always asked to log in? I thought that was the way it is...Could I get some help? |
| 14. By: Rudolf on 01-09-2010 13:55:17 Jason or Chris, Say the Reds are willing to pay half of Harang's 2010 salary... what package of prospects would YOU be willing to pay to consummate the deal? Also, do you see his 2011 salary, (and hefty buy-out), as prohibitive to making a play for his services? Would that drive down his cost in prospects? |
| 15. By: FelixElRey on 01-09-2010 14:45:44 I've never been a fan of taking money but sending more in the way of prospects. I realize we don't have an unlimited payroll, but long term, I would rather spend a few more dollars and hold onto as many prospects as possible just in case someone turns into a legit player. Especially for a smaller market team like the Reds, they may even value the money more than young prospects, so we could get Harang for next to nothing by picking up his entire salary. I know it's easy to say since money isn't as tangible as prospects being a fan, but in our position, I would rather spend the money since we seem to have it. |
| 16. By: ryandirte on 01-09-2010 14:54:13 Hey I'm a new subscriber and I need to get my subscriber information updated since it says access denied. Thanks guys. |
| 17. By: ryandirte on 01-09-2010 14:58:07 Login works. Thanks again! |
| 18. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-09-2010 15:42:36 I like some of the other names you mentioned as far as pitchers are concerned. Harang not as much since he is owed quite a bit of cash. It would all depend on the deal I guess but he fits in nice as a #3. I'm not sure where another full time bat fits in here. It would all depend on how many ABs Griffey is slated to get. As of now, he seems to be the full time DH. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is the offense we went into spring with. Actually, I'm expecting it. I am a little nervous about a MOTO of Bradley, Lopez and Griffey (whatever order). Especially if Griffey continues where he left off in 2009. This offense has better on base skills but is worse at driving the ball. While I think its better than last year, a big bat would have done wonders on paper. I would venture a guess at Jack signing another starter but not another bat. |
| 19. By: JohnMcD on 01-09-2010 15:53:01 I would rather have the 2nd or 4th pitcher named than anything. |
| 20. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-09-2010 16:14:06 I would be a bit suprised IF the M's haven't talked about Hank Blalock as an option for DH. He is still somewhat young, (29) and can still hit. He seems like a Russell Branyan and Jim Thome type of hitter... |
| 21. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-09-2010 16:15:26 BEN SHEETS = MARINER IN 2010!! I HOPE! |
| 22. By: chrisd on 01-09-2010 16:37:03 Jason, I think Saunders should be given a chance to compete for LF against RH pitchers. And Jack Z should be looking at pitching like you suggest. I guess we will wait and see what his ST is like. What do you think? |
| 23. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-09-2010 16:41:36 I hate the idea of a "platoon DH of LF" scenario. I think they need to find a FULL TIME player for each position and stick to it. |
| 24. By: 200tang on 01-09-2010 16:54:38 Why would they need a full time position player at DH or LF? If you have enough talent & roster spots to use a platoon then you should. The only reason to want a full time player is because of some weird personal reason. Also, I really don't think we need a full time DH with Milton Bradley. He can handle the field, but he really should get a lot of DH time because of his fragility. Even if you don't think he's going to be the full time DH, at least don't call Griffey the full time DH. Griffey/Z/Wak have all downplayed his role in '10 and have said that he wanted to come back regardless of his playing time. |
| 25. By: chrisd on 01-09-2010 17:38:27 Yes, it only makes sense to platoon the best players on the field according to the pitching. And why not "save" Bradley for DH rather than risk him getting injured in LF. Besides Saunders is a top notch fielder, great URZ/150 numbers for 09- 19.6. Even with mediocre offensive numbers, that D is substantial. His offensive numbers were bad last year but that is to be expected. Rarely does a player come up and hit from the start but Jack Z and Wak think he will hit. I hope he gets that chance this year. |
| 26. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-09-2010 18:00:55 OK, thats understood... so why not make Milton Bradley the full-time DH and make Mike Saunders the full-time LF. Saunders is a top prospect in the M's farm system, and SHOULD be given the opportunity to play everyday... |
| 27. By: 200tang on 01-09-2010 18:07:33 Saunders hasn't even had a full year at AAA. I'm sure if he comes in to ST and looks really good they'll use him, but if they think he could use more time to develop then they'll give it to him. He's still, what? 23? He's still young and may not be ready to hit righties enough to offset the fact he can't hit lefties. You could platoon him, but since he's still developing it stunts his development a bit. As high as the expectations are for the Mariners this year, we all have to remember this is about building a contender for years to come. You want Saunders to develop. You don't want to platoon him at the ML level and have him sitting on the bench 2-3 times a week. |
| 28. By: chrisd on 01-09-2010 18:54:06 It seems to me that what is best for the team in long and short term, and M's went through this with A Jones,is to give Saunders as many at bats at ML level and not start against LH pitchers and pinch hit later in those games. He needs ML experience and he won't get that in Tacoma. I don't think Jack will send him down unless he really struggles for an extended period or never gets off the ground in ST. It is pleasant to have a young player who was drafted and developed make it to the Bigs. |
| 29. By: chrisd on 01-09-2010 19:17:58 It seems to me that what is best for the team in long and short term, and M's went through this with A Jones,is to give Saunders as many at bats at ML level and not start against LH pitchers and pinch hit later in those games. He needs ML experience and he won't get that in Tacoma. I don't think Jack will send him down unless he really struggles for an extended period or never gets off the ground in ST. It is pleasant to have a young player who was drafted and developed make it to the Bigs. |
| 30. By: Edman on 01-09-2010 19:20:30 Because Saunders is the best outfield prospect who's closest to the majors, doesn't mean that he should get a job on the ML roster. He needs experience, period, chris. He didn't have much time at AAA, so another half-season will only benefit him. He's got things to work on. The bottom line is he needs to play everyday. If he's not going to get that opportunity at the ML level, the Tacoma is best for him. Saunders is not that close, talent-wise, to Jones. It's unfair to try to draw on the comparison. I'd love for him to win the LF job coming out of Spring Training. But that's the key word, he has to win it. |
| 31. By: d2ret on 01-09-2010 19:30:42 Same goes for Moore chrisd.. |
| 32. By: JohnMcD on 01-09-2010 20:12:42 Well Vlad signed with the Rangers. Can't wait to watch Harden blow his arm out and Vlad tear his hammy jogging to first.... |
| 33. By: Galway on 01-09-2010 20:15:04 Are there any trade scenarios that are realistic that can add offense? The pitching will get staffed out nicely unlees several items go wrong but I'm not convinced this team has enough offense yet. The free agent market is well documented but are realistic trades? I agree with the defense and pitcging first. It plays to the trend of the ball game post roid era and is a proven formula. The bash brothers will not win a championship but you still need to score and this team still needs a bit more offense in terms of gap power etc... Also would it be wise to extend a bit financially the next year or two while salaries seem to be correcting a bit? History says that will not last and the M's are financially one of the best runned teams so collect talent while prices are down. Not sure that makes sense |
| 34. By: rommeliv on 01-09-2010 23:48:49 I just subbed but its asking me to relogin each time I try and get to the subscribers area |
| 35. By: Uncle Al on 01-09-2010 23:52:19 After the Kotchman trade it looks like they've committed about $94M to this years total budget. They can make the biggest upgrades at a #3 SP, C, 1B, and LF. They aren't going upgrade at C or 1B after trading for Kotchman. He's probably the best they could do for the money and what was available. It was a very good move and gives them a lot of flexibility going forward. They really could use a player with a big bat for LF and that would allow Saunders to be in Tacoma next year. It also allows them to get another player or bring up Saunders and trade Langerhans because Saunders is ready and will get playing time. Picking up a #3 SP is where they really get a big upgrade but who knows what Zduriencik is going to be allowed to do and how much money he has left to do it with. This really is a fascinating year to follow. |
| 36. By: Lailoken on 01-10-2010 00:15:21 Any trade for Harang should start with Ian Snell & Arthur Rhodes being involved. After that as long as the prospects aren't from among Triunfel, Ackley, Moore, Saunders, Pineda, Noriega, Franklin, James Jones, Chavez, Fields, Cleto, Raben, Poythress, Morban, Valdivia, & Juan Diaz I'd be happy. |
| 37. By: Uncle Al on 01-10-2010 02:00:01 Hill, Cortes, DeJesus, Martinez, Nunez, Pimentel, Carrera, Baron, Seager, N. Diaz, Orta, Paredes, and Hensley could also be added to that list very easily. Tuiasosopo, Robles, Halman, and Liddi might also be worth something. There are a ton of guys to be watching for the next few years to see if they're going to become something or not. |
| 38. By: ARock on 01-10-2010 02:05:15 Just subscribed, I look forward to reading this soon. |
| 39. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-10-2010 02:31:40 rommeliv, If you are still having issues, email me at churchill@prospectinsider.com and I'll make sure it works. |
| 40. By: ARock on 01-10-2010 02:42:00 It works, thanks Jason! (Wasn't expecting to have you give me access tonight, given that it was already midnight!) |
| 41. By: universalguru on 01-10-2010 12:22:37 Lailoken, Arthur Rhodes? We might as well trade them Mark Langston, Norm Charlton and Tino Martinez as well. I still see them picking up a bat in left as well... because it seems that they lost a lot of confidence in Saunders. Unless Seattle pulled him out of the Lee deal, not Philly. I guess whatever we do there will be room to pick up someone during the season if all goes well. |
| 42. By: universalguru on 01-10-2010 12:24:53 I honestly think if Triunfel breaks out this year, he'll be big trade bait. His right-handed power bat and lack of range in the middle infield makes him less than a perfect fit for Seattle. Same goes for Tuiasosopo. |
| 43. By: FelixElRey on 01-10-2010 12:54:36 Reds likely signed Chapman?? Should be dumping Harang's salary now don't you figure? |
| 44. By: lowrig on 01-10-2010 13:17:30 You beat me to it elrey. Jason, do you think the reds wouldn't sign chapman unless they had a deal in place for harang? |
| 45. By: universalguru on 01-10-2010 14:01:01 I don't know that one has to be in place but they must be confident they can deal him and at least a large part of his contract. |
| 46. By: FWBrodie on 01-10-2010 17:26:04 Jason, have you heard anything about JZ talking to the Nationals lately? I know he's been interested in Josh Willingham before and he would seem like a better fit than ever. The Nats could use a second baseman too. |
| 47. By: StandinPat on 01-10-2010 17:42:57 Willingham isn't a very good defensive COF, but if he's only out there to give Bradley the day off it shouldn't be too bad. Lopez + for Willingham and sign Hudson would make this team look mighty sexy. |
| 48. By: chrisd on 01-10-2010 18:19:04 This just showed up on MLBRumours- Talks between Felix Hernandez and the Mariners are "getting serious" and there's a chance that they could work out a long-term deal before the season begins. Jason, do you know where this is coming from...just a rumour |
| 49. By: Adam T on 01-10-2010 21:38:35 48 - It is coming from Nick Cafardo at the Boston Globe, whom MLBTR cites. |
| 50. By: FelixElRey on 01-10-2010 22:02:35 Supposedly, the Reds are only paying Chapman 1MM for 2010, so that doesn't exactly force their hand to deal Harang. |
| 51. By: Adam T on 01-10-2010 22:45:40 50 - Yes, but if they want to give Chapman some real time in the rotation, Harang is easier to move than Arroyo. Or they could just wait until Volquez goes back on the DL... |
| 52. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-11-2010 00:02:13 Chapman will get a signing bonus of at least $5 million -- 100% to be paid in 2010. So yes, it does impact their 2010 payroll, even though it will not necessarily impact their luxury tax threshold, which they'll never even come close to anyway. As for Felix, the two sides have been talking regularly for about two weeks, that's really all I know. But when sides talk that regularly, and each side wants the same thing, it can get serious in a hurry. |
| 53. By: JohnMcD on 01-11-2010 00:13:20 Hopefully it happens in a hurry! |
| 54. By: brockfs1 on 01-11-2010 03:08:38 hey just subscribed and cant get into anything, can someone help me out |
| 55. By: Chris Crawford on 01-11-2010 04:24:59 Should work for you now, 54. |
| 56. By: acqb1424 on 01-11-2010 09:16:13 Hey guys, for those that are insiders and cannot make the chat tonight, will a transcript be posted afterwards? Thanks. |
| 57. By: JohnMcD on 01-11-2010 14:46:11 acqb1424: It is a chat for everyone. However, I am not sure if there will be a transcript posted afterwards. |
| 58. By: CrimsonNW on 01-11-2010 15:02:54 Amazing post JAC. Really well done. These possibilities excite me. And I find myself happily in shock that Jack Z. touched base with those last two arms you pointed out in the SP bullet. Those would be fantastic gets for us and just goes to show you how willing and fearless Jack Z. is in the trade market. Love it. |
| 59. By: rjfrik on 01-11-2010 15:30:56 57: the chat box, even after the chat is over with, can still be viewed by everyone. Just scroll up and down the box to see what questions were asked and answered. |
| 60. By: trident11 on 01-11-2010 17:36:17 Couldn't STAND IT anymore. Comment 58 sealed it. I caved. I subscribed. Can I please get access? Thanks, I love this site, but I had to pony up for the secret stuff. |
| 61. By: Chris Crawford on 01-11-2010 17:37:22 should work for you now, 60. its pretty awesome stuff. |
| 62. By: deweydood on 01-11-2010 18:09:46 I just signed up but it won't let me read anything? |
| 63. By: marinermanmatt on 01-11-2010 19:10:19 Darn it comment 60, your comment made me seal the deal. Year long subscription here I come. |
| 64. By: JohnMcD on 01-11-2010 19:12:46 Its worth it 63. Jason is the best in the biz. |
| 65. By: marinermanmatt on 01-11-2010 19:15:02 I know, I have enjoyed Jason's writing since 07, and was devastated when I learned that we would have to pay for it. Finally caved though and now i can't wait to see what all the buzz is about on this post. |
| 66. By: ARock on 01-11-2010 19:40:07 On the insider chat, how often do these occur anyway? I am looking forward to it. |
| 67. By: chrisd on 01-11-2010 23:16:21 Jason, great chat today. I could not join live but I caught it after work. I hope you do another next week. You provide info we can't get any where else. I can't wait to see Ackley in ST. I hope he surprises people at 2B and exceeds expectations like his NC coach thinks he will. I do have a hard time understanding that you aren't onboard with Jack yet. You said, "He hasn't accomplished anything yet" (paraphrasing). I disagree. He has turned this team around by 24 games last year and given M's fans confidence this will continue. At least they will be in the hunt this year till the end,IMHO. Much appreciation, Christopher |
| 68. By: universalguru on 01-13-2010 12:32:54 chrisd I think Jason remembers 2007 where we went 88-74 promptly followed by Bedard, Silva, high expectations and a 61-101 record. Do Z's moves even remotely resemble Bavasi's? No, but things can fall apart quick. I'm with you that Jack has done an incredible job, but Jason's right in thinking that it takes multiple years of success to gain a positive legacy. Truth is until we are yearly playoff contenders no one on the M's coaching staff and front office should enshired in the team hall of fame. |
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