| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 08-24-2010 |
We haven't talked enough about Seattle Mariners shortstop prospect Nick Franklin this season. Partly because of the progress of right-hander Michael Pineda and partly because Dustin Ackley is a polished off "A" version of Franklin at the plate, and might be able to handle the transition to second base.But there's a third reason that a 19-year-old kid tearing up the Midwest League isn't getting raved about left and right here at Prospect Insider, and it's because we're trying to temper the enthusiasm.
Why are we doing so? Because the exciting numbers Franklin is putting up in Clinton mean less than most observers would assume. His 20 home runs mean less for his future than if, say, James Jones had the same number of long balls. Franklin's 23 steals doesn't tell us anything other than he's not a slug on the bases, and his rate stats are a simple reflection of the polish he brings to pro ball, rather than a promise of what else may be in the offing.
But those 20 homers also mean he's not your average prep draftee, and, frankly, it's time to get excited about Nick Franklin.
He's a very good player, and has ousted Carlos Triunfel as Prospect Insider's No. 3 prospect in the farm system behind Ackley and Pineda, and is nipping at Pineda's heels, too.
He's displaying all the attributes of a kid that will move through the system quickly and end up the club's starting shortstop inside two seasons. Though I'd me much more impressed if he'd swap 75 or 80 points of slugging for 40 more points in OBP and better contact rates, but I'm done being that picky.
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Franklin is not going to hit 25-plus homers per year in the big leagues -- the pace he's on this season -- but he might be able to put up .370 or better on-base percentages and hit for enough pop to warrant all-star consideration in his prime years, and that's a really, really good player.
Let's take a closer look at what Franklin is up to these days:
He's minor league baseball's first and only 20-20-20 member this season -- 20 homers, 20 steals, 20 doubles -- and also has seven triples. The Florida native is on the cusp of a LumberKings franchise record for long balls, currently held by Dick Kenworthy when he belted 22 in 1961.
Yep, a 49-year-old home run record may go down to a "pip-squeak of a physical specimen," as one scout put it jokingly, but that's the biggest reason Franklin is a legit bg-league prospect; He's smart, works hard, understands the game and brings all the leadership skills and intangibles to the ballpark every single day. He's methodical in his work and appears to be a bit of a perfectionist, holding himself to a very high standard.
But he also exudes oodles of confidence, a borderline cocky approach to things. But it fits, which is why scouting director Tom McNamara wanted to draft him so badly last June.
While you can contend that better players were available -- I certainly do, even to this day -- there's no doubt that the player on the board at that time with the best chance to become what scouts hoped he could be was Franklin.
Scouts have opined this season that Franklin's work at shortstop isn't concerning, despite the somewhat high error totals, and that he's "smooth, sure-handed and makes the routine play look more routine than a blinking with the wind blowing."
I witnessed him making throws during spring training that most shortstops in the bigs can't make -- the quick, nearly-underhanded flip on a slow roller, the play deep behind second base with a decent runner in route to first, among others -- and he's a quick learner, too.
He's the kind of athlete, like Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager, that will learn how to do things taught to them quicker than the average young player. And that learning curve could lead to a fast-track path to the show, including potentially seeing Double-A West Tennessee next season, after a showing in High Desert. Or not.
When I asked an area supervisor why the Mariners wouldn't promote Franklin to hitter-friendly High Desert, however, it became apparent that it's not so apparent that Franklin will play a single game there -- even next year.
"He doesn't have anything to prove there," the scout said. "He's hitting, developing ... my only focus would be to keep that going, keep challenging him. I don't see a reason to play him there this year, and if they think he can handle the Southern League physically, skip the Cal League next year, too."
Yep, you read that right. Nick Franklin is on the fast track, and as long as he remains healthy, is likely to see the big leagues before most other high draft picks from the '09 class.
While I have heard conflicting opinions about how soon Franklin could see the majors, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the M's get adventurous and find room on the 40-man roster for him in September. This September.
Yes, he's 19 years old and there is risk to such a move, but after the Midwest League playoffs are over, we could see the M's do something most teams won't do with their Low Class-A prospects, which is put them in the big leagues to set them up for 2011. And that's because the typical prospect at that level is three-plus years from the big leagues.
Franklin is not a typical Class-A prospect.
With the chance that Franklin skips High Desert altogether -- and I don't know what the chances of that occurring might be -- the kid could hit Double-A at 20 with a great chance to replace Jack and Josh Wilson late next summer as the everyday shortstop. And all it takes is more of the same.
And from that point, there's no looking back, and the M's will have found their Tinker.
Photo courtesy of Clinton LumberKings
nick-franklin,-ss
Comments
The following 73 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: SethGrandpa on 08-24-2010 17:30:37 Wow. If Franklin sees the bigs this year that'd be crazy. Not necessarily bad, but certainly crazy. Honestly, I'm not sure how I feel about it right now other than shocked |
| 2. By: littlelinny6 on 08-24-2010 17:38:20 Wow, I was think 2013 at the earliest so this is really good news. What do you think his chances are of sticking at SS long term? |
| 3. By: littlelinny6 on 08-24-2010 17:45:39 Speaking of exciting middle infielders in the M's system, how do you see the 2B logjam of Ackley, Lawson, and Seager working out? It seems Seager has nothing left to do in HD but has nowhere to go in WTenn with Lawson performing well too. Could one of both of them either be converted to 3B long term or utility infielder in an effort to help the big league club a few years down the road? |
| 4. By: sportsguy on 08-24-2010 17:53:07 Very logical, very calculated, very smart move. Get his feet wet in preparation for 2011. Yes, he will be an organization changer for us over the next 15 years. Back in the day the best players entered the big leagues as 19-20 year olds, so as the game has evolved it is logical for the game to revert to that. It would be nice to see us "leading" again and being "bold". After all isn't that what Teddy Roosevelt aspired us all to in "The Man in the Arena". Let's get in there and fight, Franklin will certainly do that! It is a very logical, very calculated, very smart move on our part to give him a taste next month. Let's go M's of 2011! |
| 5. By: bakomariner on 08-24-2010 17:57:32 I live in Davenport, IA, about 45 minutes from Clinton...I've seen them play here 3 times this year, and Franklin and Martinez have been very impressive... And the confidence? Oh yeah...I went to the August 19th game...it was my birthday, so I took a ball and had every "prospect" worth mentioning sign it... Lastly was Franklin...we talked for a good 5 minutes and he was a very nice, polite and engaging kid...when the discussion turned to the future and the draft I said, "You're gonna have to watch out for Littlewood...he's gonna be good." He didn't bat an eye and replied, "I'm not worried about him." The kid ooozes confidence...I looked like a mark taking pics and talking with him...and everyone in my section was probably sick of my talking him up, but I'm fired up about his future...great kid... |
| 6. By: bakomariner on 08-24-2010 18:01:43 And he hits the ball HARD every time...even on an out, or a single, he CRACKS the bat...even my buddies that were making fun of me because I was praising him so much admitted after his 3rd at bat how loud the sound was... |
| 7. By: Chipanese on 08-24-2010 18:43:46 Thanks for another amazing article Jason. I'd be very interested to see Franklin be called up while we still have Jack Wilson around. Having a great defensive mentor like him in the clubhouse will help him immprove in further. Kind of reminds me of Elvis Andrus and Omar Vizquel last year for the Rangers. |
| 8. By: 01v-dubs on 08-24-2010 18:44:55 Very exciting stuff. Jason are you concerned about his splits, and his ability to hit right handed? Do you feel that he may be better as a strictly lefty bat? I'm also excited about Littlewood, personally I hope he beefs up to get as much power out of him as possible so he and Franklin can form a very good left side of the infield. |
| 9. By: Lailoken on 08-24-2010 19:19:11 Franklin being ready in 2012 when a lot of money comes off the books would be huge. Ackley should be cemented as the 2B by then. Smoak, Saunders, Ackley, Moore, & Franklin would be a very inexpensive core. That would leave plenty of money to pursue another top bat at DH or 3B if Figgins is traded by then. Maybe even a starting pitcher to pair with Felix & Pineda. With talent like Franklin getting stockpiled the down times may not last for long. |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-24-2010 19:49:27 To add to the above accolades, Franklin was named the All Midwest League shortstop today. |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-24-2010 19:50:48 Not concerned about anything with Franklin, Lailoken. Not one thing. |
| 12. By: Edman on 08-24-2010 20:04:11 The Midwest League is tough on hitters. Nick is hitting well in that league. He's been pretty consistant all season. I think it's reasonable to expect he'll hit for reasonable power, especially for a shortstop. It's also a plus that he's a switch-hitter. I'm excited, but still cautious. Certainly, he's showing that he's deserving of being a first round pick. A plus hitter as a shortstop, with good insticts and a willingness to learn is all a recipe for success. |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-24-2010 20:07:42 And his name is Nick, Edman. That means something these days. Nick Swisher having a big year, Nick Castellanos getting more guaranteed money by April 2011 than any draft pick in the entire class of 2010 -- and he shares an agent with Franklin -- Nick at Nite... |
| 14. By: Blowgun7 on 08-24-2010 21:54:58 There is no logjam in the middle infield. Lawson and Seager will have a hard time being every day players in the middle of the diamond (although I really like Seager).. What I love about Franklin is that a week ago he was really scuffling. Had like a 5 strikeout game or something. The next two days he goes out and goes 8-10, as if he was pissed off that he had such a rotten game. Whenever, you look at Franklin's numbers and start to wonder if he's slipping, he bounces back with a huge week or two. Really looking forward to this next wave of Mariners |
| 15. By: marinermutt on 08-24-2010 21:58:36 Jason, I know you are friends with Keith Law. Do you know what his thoughts are for Franklin? Would be interesting to get a national perspective on him and if he would make his top 100. Thanks, |
| 16. By: baseballman on 08-24-2010 22:44:59 RE 9: Dont forget that we will have a very very high draft pick in 2011 and that player will most likely be a college player who will prob get fast tracked. That could be a biig hitter or TOR type pitcher. But Im still hoping Paxton can be that guy to pair with Felix and Pineda. We are in very good shape and 2012 could be big, bg things for this team. |
| 17. By: eatmorekale on 08-24-2010 23:21:54 Very excited about Franklin. Bad as things are with the M' this year, the organization is finally building this thing the right way. Question: what can folks say about Ji-Man Choi? Big promotion to High Desert, and a solid first week. He's only 19 or 20 I think. How much of a prospect is he? Seems to be flying under the radar.,. |
| 18. By: Blowgun7 on 08-24-2010 23:30:58 Choi and Morban in High Desert. Is that just filling some roster holes, Jason? Or do the M's think that highly of the current offensive tools of each guy, that they feel they can hold their own at that level? |
| 19. By: Chipanese on 08-24-2010 23:52:56 I can understand Choi, but Morban? He's barely even played this year... |
| 20. By: Chipanese on 08-24-2010 23:57:35 @17. Choi is actually starting to get some attention. Ben Badler from BA really likes him. |
| 21. By: Missthosepilots on 08-25-2010 00:11:21 Thanks Jason. Excellent article and thoughts. Franklin's BA tailed off in the 2nd half but it amazed me how hot he started off. This was a kid not even one year out of high school in Florida now playing A ball in cold weather. We all have to applaud. So far so good! Kind of fun to see a surprise like that in the M's system! |
| 22. By: rjfrik on 08-25-2010 04:25:26 And to think we could of had 2 of those Mid West Position All-Stars, 3B Matt Davidson. He was actually one of the guys I was hoping they pulled the trigger on instead of Baron. But as all of you said. Franklin is on the fast track and he is going to be a good one. Reminds me of a switch hitting Cal Ripken Jr. |
| 23. By: Marco on 08-25-2010 05:32:43 May I suggest to stay cool ? It's still a long way IMO. |
| 24. By: ndcohn on 08-25-2010 08:50:29 Seems a little exuberant considering he's batting 240 since June 1st, but perhaps that's expected with a small kid right out of high school. |
| 25. By: Edman on 08-25-2010 10:57:21 #25, I doubt it has anything to do with size, it's more likely related to workload. This is his first exposure to playing nearly every day for five months. It's typical for high school kids suffer a little fatigue in the second half of the season. He needs some time to adjust to that much work on a daily basis. |
| 26. By: Edman on 08-25-2010 11:11:41 rjfrik, every team has their "could have" list. Just as they'll have their "glad we didn't" list. That's just life, especially in baseball. |
| 27. By: slamcactus on 08-25-2010 13:14:35 "Reminds me of a switch hitting Cal Ripken Jr." He really shouldn't. Ripken was a legit 6'4"/200 lbs. Franklin's listed at 6'1", but I've seen him in person. Kid's no more than 5'10", and I'd be shocked if he actually weighs 170. Maybe 160, but definitely not 170. |
| 28. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-25-2010 17:11:05 Franklin was 172 in February at spring training weigh-in. But he's a legit 6-feet or taller, and may end up 6-1 1/2 ish. Re: Choi I ranked Choi in the mid-season top 30 -- mostly based on his bat because he may not be able to catch. Choi is a legit Advanded-A talent right now. Morban can handle HD, but it's just a way to push him a bit after he's missed almost all season. |
| 29. By: sportsguy on 08-25-2010 21:34:03 Jason is correct. Nick is already a little over 6'1". Slamcacti has no idea what he is talking about. Before he is done playing SS for the M's, kids will be emulating him and saying they did the "Franklin" play. Hang on kids. |
| 30. By: 11records on 08-25-2010 22:32:12 Wow. You're generally not one for superlatives, Jason. So this is very encouraging. Hey - Was just perusing Milb.com and they had a post about this being Brandon Belt's 1st game in AAA... So far so good - 1 for 2 with a HR. His numbers this year scarcely make sense for a 1st year pro. Have you seen him? Sorry to be off topic... |
| 31. By: thebigman on 08-26-2010 08:04:46 Ahh geez, now I'm gonna have to get all excited about Franklin. |
| 32. By: eastcoastmariner on 08-26-2010 11:34:40 Jason, Assuming Tacoma makes the PCL playoffs (and Clinton, HD, and West Tenn. do not qualify for playoffs in their respective leagues), is there a chance the M's aggressively push Franklin into the playoff atmosphere at Tacoma, rather than put him with the M's as you mention, who are essentially playing for nothing at this point? |
| 33. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-26-2010 15:20:27 No. What is the point of that? To get his feet wet for his next trip to Triple-A? re: 11records, I haven't, but he's legit. |
| 34. By: mymrbig on 08-26-2010 15:23:10 In other news, Seattle just hasn't been bad enough lately. They are 7 games behind the Pirates in the race for #1. They are also 5 games behind Baltimore, 1 game behind Arizona, and only .5 game ahead of Cleveland. Houston's 5-game winning streak has firmly removed them from the cellar. Washington's 4-game losing streak has them lurking in 6th, and losing Strasburg can only help their cause. Washington might be able to sneak into 3rd, but its hard to imagine them working their way into the top 2 picks. |
| 35. By: Edman on 08-26-2010 16:14:27 Seattle finishes where they finish. They're going to get a good pick out of a deep draft. I'm fine with that. |
| 36. By: rocketdawg31 on 08-26-2010 16:23:05 #35- I'm completely with that idea. There's almost no way we don't wind up with a good player. It doesn't HAVE to be Rendon. Especially since I have a suspicion that Carlos Triunfel will see the lion's share of his playing time at third base (in Double-A) next season. The real news to me is that there's a chance that Seattle avoids losing 100 games. Draft position be darned, I really didn't want to see them lose that many. If we're 4th or 5th, and wind up with a George Springer or a Gerrit Cole, I'm content. They're both likely valuable pieces to add to a most-promising future starting to come around. |
| 37. By: d2ret on 08-26-2010 16:32:27 Wait, Jason, you said he has taken over as the no. 3 prospect and is 'nipping at Pineda's heels, too'. Really? Is the single A shortstop THAT good to be 'nipping at the heals' of a potential ace pitcher in AAA ball? This is super exciting to read, but doesnt he have a lot to prove yet? I suppose the quality of the glove, the makeup, and the position he plays is the biggest thing to lean on at this stage when talking about fast tracking him. |
| 38. By: Lonnie on 08-26-2010 16:34:33 Man, I hate to do this, but I have to. [cold water on face] Franklin has one glaring weakness that may take him some time to correct. As a switch hitter, he has stunk on ice hitting from the right side. Franklin is either going to have to drop switch-hitting and learn to hit lefthanded pitching from the left side, or spend some more time in the minors developing his right-hand swing. Seriously folks, the split is jaw-dropping. It's not just his average, it's also his power numbers (slugging .304 as a righty vs .556 as a lefty), and his batting eye (8/32 bb/k as a righty, 35/77 as a lefty). Until Franklin improves his performance against left handed pitching either as a switch hitter or just going from the left side, he is an incomplete package that needs work. Roughly 1/3 of his at bats in 2010 have come against left-handed pitching, and I think the ratio would be the same at the MLB level. Do we really want to push a kid who has this dramatic of a split? [/cold water on face] Lonnie |
| 39. By: Marco on 08-26-2010 17:20:14 September 2010, 40-man roster April 2011, West Tenn May 2011, Tacoma June 2011, Seattle July 12 2011, starting in Phoenix |
| 40. By: tylers1216 on 08-26-2010 19:05:49 Marco, thats pretty aggressive to think he only spends ONE month in AA. he doesn't need to be pushed that fast, I think something more of a move to tacoma at the end of july with a september call up might be more reasonable? Thats pretty much what they did with ackley and he's as an advanced a bat as your're going to have in the minors. Also Lonnie, agreed the splits are really concerning but Franklin has only had 116 ABs batting left. He hasn't even finished his first pro year and I think he has time to work on it as he progresses. Remember how important instructs and time in the offseason is for young guys, and with his work ethic he'd be the guy that can work it out. Who knows but I dont really see his poor RHB as cold water on the face. |
| 41. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-26-2010 21:20:44 ndcohn, Right, but he hit .286/.384/.500 in July, so, way to pick out the negative and ignore everything else that blows the ".240 since June" out of the water. Plus, are you new? Batting average? Really? Lonnie, His numbers from the right side mean so very little. If it were issues as a lefty bat, you'd have a point. But clearly he is going to get 80% of his ABs as a lefty bat, if not more. It's truly not an issue. It would simply be yet another bonus to his game and potential future value is he were equally successful this early from the right side, too. And FTR, ZERO scouts are concerned about his splits. d2ret, Pineda comes with the injury risk and let's be honest, he's been this good for less than one full year. So, yes, absolutely, on Pineda's heels is Franklin. And yes, that's an uber-aggressive timetable. There's no chance he ends up in Tacoma by May, 2011. But I think Marco is trying to be funny. |
| 42. By: baseballman on 08-26-2010 22:27:47 RE 38: wow, really?! hence him being in single A... |
| 43. By: xarmyguy78 on 08-27-2010 00:56:36 Jason, Chris or anyone else in the know, I know this is an off topic question, but what is the likelyhood of the Mariners making any waiver wire deals before the end of the month? Any of our guys going to get dealt or released by August 31? Also just wondering if there is anything short of minor league call-ups for us Mariner fans to look forward to for the rest of the year? |
| 44. By: Chris Crawford on 08-27-2010 04:51:42 Xarmy -- I haven't heard anything really, you might see a reliever get dealt (doubt it) or Kotchman dealt -- but nothing big happening. We also might just have something to do with that this weekend -- stay tuned. |
| 45. By: John_S on 08-27-2010 09:41:56 Off topic, but Jayson Stark is twittering that Strasburg needs TJ surgery. Tough blow. Hope he makes a healthy recovery. |
| 46. By: safecochatter on 08-27-2010 10:53:45 "now" who would u want. strasburg or ackley?? |
| 47. By: Edman on 08-27-2010 11:11:39 It's sad to hear about Strasburg. I don't know if there was anything Washington could do to prevent it, but they'll certainly be second-guessing themselves. Even going from college to the pros requires some workload adjustment. But, I don't think that had much to do with it. There's always a risk that a pitcher could suffer a major arm injury. Doesn't matter if you draft them, trade for them or sign them as free agents. All that said, this is a perfect example why Seattle has been monitoring Pineda and Vargas' pitch count. I do think that baseball in general is losing it's grasp on the importance of pitch count. Some have praised Nolan Ryan's directive that starting pitcher pitch counts are as important as going deep into games. Personally, I think he's an egotist who uses his durability as the benchmark, and thinks it applies to all. Good luck, Steven. If it's Tommy John surgery, at least it's not the career threatening injury it use to be. |
| 48. By: Edman on 08-27-2010 11:13:21 oops, aren't as important as going deep into game.....damn typonese. |
| 49. By: Lonnie on 08-27-2010 13:52:25 Related, and yet unrelated to the progress that Franklin has shown this year is an article by Mike Takeuchi at his blog "A Different Perspective". In his article he talks about the strides that Michael Pineda and Dustin Ackley have made and a corolation between their performance and the new strength and conditioning program instituted by the Mariners. If you recall, prior to ST the Mariners brought in Dr. Marcus Elliot of the P3 program to assess and implement a radical (for baseball) new strength and conditioning program to maximize a players strengths and build up any weaknesess. His job was to essentially make athletes out of baseball players. In his article, Takeuchi calls out Pineda and Ackley as two players who have really bought into the new system and that we are now seeing the impact of the program through their performances. With Ackley, I am not sure if what we are seeing is because of the program or because of Ackley's unique baseball instincts with regard to offense. He had an incredible batting eye prior to joining the M's, so this leads me to believe that a lot that he has done in 2010 are a result of his own talent. Pineda, on the other hand, has shown something almost magical. Other pitchers have had jumps in velocity during the course of a single year, but Pineda going from the low 90's to now hitting 97 on the radar gun is phenominal. Pineda's command and control, however, are all his own (IMHO). Franklin doesn't have much of a track record to give us a good idea of what his ceiling is, but going into this season I don't think that anyone would have had the stones to predict what he has accomplished. No one saw the power - NO ONE! Remember when he was drafted and the consenses was that his main atribute was "baseball smarts"? He was not drafted because he was a standout athlete, but because he understood the game and that he had some good inate potential. I still harbor some concerns about Franklin's splits and worry that he may be used in a platoon fashion and not allowed to develope against LH pitching, but I'm willing to give him some time. I hope the Mariners do to. Here's a link to Takeuchi's article. http://miketakeuchi.blogspot.com/2010/07/with-marcus-elliott-seattle-mariners.html Lonnie |
| 50. By: VikingArthur on 08-27-2010 13:58:13 #47... To think that anything Washington did was the cause of SS's arm injury is absurd. The damage was done in his early teens. Youth baseball is taken too seriously and as a result these kids are pushed too hard and they pitch year around. Throwing a baseball is violent and simply part of the game. Nolan Ryan has the right idea, despite all the pitch counts, coddling, etc arm injuries are happening just as often or more so. |
| 51. By: nighthawk180 on 08-27-2010 14:20:16 Jason or Chris A little off topic but I was wondering what your thoughts are about Kelly Johnson clearing waivers. I surely would have thought someone would have claimed him. I mean I know that his defense isnt the greatest but its not really horrible is it. His bat makes up for the defense. Do you think that the mariners passed up on a player they could have flipped in the offseason for some needed help. I know that we have Ackley and Chone but with the way Lopez has played this year defensively I dont know if the front office has much faith in him anymore. He doesn't make that much money for the rest of the year. It could also mean that everyone knew they would pull back too. Just a thought its all moot now anyways just wanted other opinions. Thx |
| 52. By: Missthosepilots on 08-27-2010 14:27:37 Shame about Strassburg. Pitching at any competitive level at any age can be a violent action for elbow/shoulder. Good point VA about the youth and the year round. I had traveling teams want my son to pitch for them at 9-10 requiring a 10 month a year commitment. Not only would he have hated baseball but I think by now his arm would looked like an old tire on a new car. Coaching I see 13 year olds who are already skilled at curveballs and working on sliders. Guys like Nolan Ryan are rare. But I fear the potential for later damage is done at an earlier age by some overzealous parents/coaches. Obviously nothing new there for any of you, just disappointed to see SS go down so quickly. Never take a Felix for granted folks! |
| 53. By: Edman on 08-27-2010 16:42:16 #50, I suggest that you re-read my post. I said up front that I doubted that Washington could have done anything to prevent his injury. And, I think it's also fair to assume that they're going to investigate their handling of Strasburg, as any organization would. Stasburg spent less than a year in the minor league system. Was his work ethic completely evaluated to reduce stress? I'm sure they'll look at that. And your comment about abuse occurring early in their youth is well founded. However, hasn't nearly every pitcher in the major and minor leagues gone through the same type of over-use and improper mechanics experienced while in little leagues? Then virtually ALL pitchers are damaged. So, what keeps some from TJ surgery, and makes other subject to it? Luck? I'm sure it's a factor. One thing that minor league instruction does is try to undo bad habits acquired over years of bad coaching. Worse yet, the abuses experienced because of over-zealous coaches who are more concerned about winning than a young man's potential baseball career (and general physical health for the rest of their lives). And I do think Nolan Ryan is wrong. Not all players can be handled with the same approach. I've watched this game for a number of years. And, most likely influenced more by the money spent on free agency signings, teams have learned about pitch counts. Prior to that, they didn't have much concern if they burnt out an arm. It didn't cost much. You just go get another and see how much you can get out of him. |
| 54. By: slamcactus on 08-27-2010 17:19:04 ""now" who would u want. strasburg or ackley??" Still Strasburg, probably. Ackley's a nice prospect with a very high floor and a moderately high ceiling, but TJ has a pretty solid return rate, and Strasburg's a bona fide major league talent, not a live-armed prospect who has to both recover from TJ AND prove he has the talent to make it in the bigs. |
| 55. By: Marco on 08-27-2010 17:32:38 "Ackley's a nice prospect with a very high floor and a moderately high ceiling" My same idea (do not kill me, please) |
| 56. By: VikingArthur on 08-27-2010 20:40:10 Edman, I think if you look at certain pitchers vs others, you will find that some of the guys who don't have durability issues are the guys who grew up in northern climates meaning they HAD to take time off and youth baseball actually has a season rather than a year round barnstorming tour. I think you can work the hell out of 25 year olds if they were not overworked at 12. Asking a 14 year old kid to pitch at max effort for months at a time creates a ticking time bomb. All that aside, luck and chance are probably the #1 factor. |
| 57. By: Lonnie on 08-27-2010 21:00:40 Just to add a bit more wood on the Franklin fire, there's an article over at BaseballAmerica.com The article is in their subscriber area, and I won't go into great detail about what is written there, but here are a few tidbits: - Franklin has been sick 3 times since ST. - Franklin came into ST at 180 lbs - Because of being sick (plus the grind of a full season), Franklin weighs in now at 160 lbs. - Franklin's confidence rates an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale according to Clinton hitting coach Terry Pollreisz Also, in an interview I just listened to today, Seattle Mariners' Special Assistant of Player Procurement John Boles states that Franklin could easily break the 2011 season at AA West Tenn, skipping entirely High Desert because there is nothing there for him to learn from. If you are a subscriber, here's the link to the BA article: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/minors/classification-reports/low-class-a/2010/2610552.html Too cool! Lonnie |
| 58. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-28-2010 00:19:05 I don't know who wrote that story, but 160 is not correct, but it's neither here nor there. Lots of guessing of numbers went into that drivel. And didn't Boles just say what we have been saying here since we posted this? Re: Stras v. Ackley Considering today through the end of club control, Ackley without a doubt. If you guarantee me I keep the player for 8 or 10 years, Strasburg might be the guy still. TJ has a pretty good success rate, but even those that come back are rarely the same. Francisco Liriano is a good recent example. He's pretty close to all the way back -- probably as close as he is ever going to get -- and he's been very good this year, in the CY discussion. But it also took him two-plus years to get there. Even when the successful TJ surgery is at hand, it doesn't mean it takes place in the 9-12 month recovery time frame. Jordan Zimmermann of the Nats is back, too, but he's not exactly the same as before the injury, at least not yet. Maybe by spring, but not now, which means his FULL recovery will have taken closer to 18 months. That's a chunk of time. If you told me today that I can have Ackley as is or Strasburg, but that Stras was going to be out most or all of 2011, and may not be "right" until early '12, I'm taking Ackley, thank you very much. Stras accrues service time while on the DL, too, remember. |
| 59. By: griffey24 on 08-28-2010 04:59:45 Wait Wait Wait..... We heard this about Truinfel a year or so ago... How is this different? He hasnt shown great production like .330 Avg and .400 OBP, so I just won't be duped again into thinking that this kid is the "next BIG thing". Sorry to be a buzz kill, but i've heard this story and been disapointed before |
| 60. By: CrustyJuggler on 08-28-2010 11:04:33 To be honest, Triunfel was all tools and no show at the time. More of a baseball specimen than a proven entity. Franklin on the other hand is proving himself in spades. |
| 61. By: dawgncarolina on 08-28-2010 13:07:30 "We heard this about Truinfel a year or so ago..." Actually it was three years ago. "How is this different?" Triunfel was all projection, with his only production being his ability to post an empty batting average. The idea was that he would develop power (and he still may, he's still only 20). Franklin has 20 home runs in the Midwest League. The last teenage shortstop to put up better numbers than Franklin in the Midwest League was some guy named Rodgriguez. Now I'm not saying Franklin's the next ARod (he's not), but what he's doing is extremely rare for his age, league and position. This is totally different from Triunfel. But feel free not to get excited. |
| 62. By: rjfrik on 08-28-2010 15:03:18 How fun would it be if Franklin became the sleeper Arod. A guy, like Pujols, who no one thought was going to be very good but became an all out slugger. Wow that would be cool. From Capri, Out |
| 63. By: StandinPat on 08-28-2010 15:11:58 #59 Additionally Franklin is already way ahead of Triunfel in maturity, work ethic, and prospects of sticking at SS long term. There really is little to no comparison there. |
| 64. By: slamcactus on 08-28-2010 15:48:51 "He hasnt shown great production like .330 Avg and .400 OBP, so I just won't be duped again into thinking that this kid is the "next BIG thing"." He's not "the next BIG thing." He's just a very good prospect who could very well turn into an above average major leaguer. Also, a .210 ISO in the MWL as a 19 y/o qualifies as "great production." Nobody's calling Franklin a generational talent. He's not a prospect on the level of Felix Hernandez circa 2004 or Alex Rodriguez circa 1995, but he's a very good prospect nonetheless. If you don't want to be excited about having a very good up-the-middle talent in our system, that is your choice. |
| 65. By: Shawnuel on 08-28-2010 18:26:57 There is a nice interview with Nick Franklin, done by Mitch Levy from KJR. Franklin acquits himself quite nicely, as you hear the confidence he has in himself, but it doesn't project in a negative manner AT ALL. http://www.kjram.com/main.html Look under KJR Audio On Demand and Mitch's links. KJR is largely populated by buffoons and Levy often falls prey to his baser instincts, but he can be a very intelligent interviewer when he wants to be. |
| 66. By: ndcohn on 08-28-2010 18:38:48 ...calculating BA from minor league splits over 3 months is easier than OPS since you don't have to calculate PA from AB + BB, etc. Either way, his OPS hasn't exceeded .720 in two of the last three months... his K rate is up... The numbers obviously don't capture everything (his line drive rate is higher the last three months than they were the first two, and his BABIP was sky high in april/may, and in that context, July was probably his best month)... but there isn't a ton of evident improvement... You've said before that a big thing you look for is signs of progress - walking a little more, striking out a little less - and there just don't seem to be too many on the stats side. Perhaps fatigue is an explanation, but what if its that they're throwing him more breaking pitches? There's no question that this year has been extremely promising, but the absence of more progress (esp on K/BB front) is a question in my mind. |
| 67. By: dawgncarolina on 08-28-2010 23:02:00 ndcohn, you seem to be unnecessarily harsh. Just because BA might be easier to calculate doesn't mean it's worth looking at. His OPS has only been below .720 one month all year, and that was just by a point. And that was in June when his BABIP was ridiculously low. His ISO held up just fine that month. July and August have seen the spike in K rate that you note, but you seem to deliberately ignore that he's walking more to coincide. So there is progress on the BB's, just not on the K's. And expecting progress in his slg would be a little unrealistic considering how well he started the year. I think you're looking too closely at small increments while ignoring the bigger picture. We're talking about a kid playing five straight months of baseball for the first time in his life. A little decline at the end of the year was to be expected. And even with that, the OPS he's posted in August is still very respectable for a 19 year old SS in the Midwest league. Nobody's hyping this kid as an MVP candidate, but people seem to want to poke holes in him as if he were receiving that type of hype. |
| 68. By: ndcohn on 08-29-2010 02:10:03 I'm not trying to be harsh... I don't disagreee with the assessment that Franklin is *extremely promsiing* and one of the top few SS prospects in baseball. I just have two reservations - a weak second half, and a poor K/BB rate considering that his tools ought to be maximizing OBP. Franklin might be in the midst of changing that first point - he is pretty hot right now. That said, I still think his K-BB rate is an issue (i'm not ignoring increased walks, i'm just noting that the ratio is essentially unchanged).... and even if he turns August around, his weaker months have been later in the year. If we agree that "progress" is an important thing to look at in prospects (something that I'm not wedded to, just an impression I've gotten from this website) that opens up the possibility that he's having real problems adjusting to off speed pitches, that he was just unsustainably hot earlier in the year, or that he's just generally not making adjustments. I don't know the explanation. I threw out an alternative exp. in my initial post (small body, long year)... but regardless, it's a question mark for me. |
| 69. By: johnfree on 08-29-2010 04:20:22 ndcohn, You keep nitpicking on his K/BB rate but aren't factoring in that this is his first full Pro season in a league that he is kind of young for and more then holding his own in. |
| 70. By: Lonnie on 08-31-2010 17:46:41 A couple of things. 1) I just got word from someone close to Franklin that he really hasn't lost all that much weight over the course of the season, if any at all. 2) Right after the All-Star break pitchers took a different tact against Franklin. In the first half he saw a ton of FB, and demolished them. In the second half, he is seeing a lot more breaking stuff and change-ups. He is acclimating to the new pitching strategies being used against him and is improving. Lonnie |
| 71. By: sportin2 on 08-31-2010 19:16:36 Franklin just tied Clinton’s 49 year old franchise HR record with his 22nd long ball. An oppo shot in his first AB in Peoria. |
| 72. By: sportsguy on 09-05-2010 18:15:51 Franklin broke the record today going oppo bomb on the 2nd pitch he saw today. #23!! Congrats to Nick! |
| 73. By: HeinitzProductions on 09-08-2010 10:13:13 I'm from Clinton, Iowa & I record many of the LumberKings home games and a hand full on the road. If you haven't yet, search Nick Franklin Baseball on YouTube...I have plenty of him! My username on there is HeinitzProductions. http://www.youtube.com/HeinitzProductions |
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