Prospect Insider - Notebook: Rule 5, Raul

Notebook: Rule 5, Raul

By Jason A. Churchill

By 12-12-2008

So Raul Ibanez is headed to Philadelphia on a three-year deal for about $30 million. Sweet. For Seattle and Ibanez's wallet, anyway.

What that move does, presuming that the Phillies do not sign another Type A free agent that carries a higher player ranking than does Ibanez, is that the M's will head into June's draft with the 28th or 29th pick in the first round, along with their own pick at No. 2.

The one-slot differential, however, is contingent on the club's own dealings with last year's first-round pick Josh Fields. If he signs, the M's get Phillies' pick at 28. If he doesn't, that pick slides down a slot to 29 and the Mariners also get the 21st pick, one slot below where Fields was taken last year.

Either way, the club is going to have a nice chunk of picks in the top 50 or so, which will make the draft even more fun than it usually is.

The M's took one player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft, traded for another, and selected a relief pitcher in the Triple-A portion.

Reegie Corona is a middle infielder who projects better at second but can play some shortstop. He's an above-average runner with a more than adequate glove, but he lacks the power at the plate to be an everyday player.

He does possess pretty strong plate skills, however, and is more physically gifted than, say, Willie Bloomquist, so the 22-year-old Venezuelan an upgrade as a reserve infielder.

Corono is a switch hitter, too, and is stronger from the left side, but handles the bat from both edges of the batter's box.

The Kansas City Royals were sent a 3-pack of licorice-flavored Christmas jellybeans in return for selecting left-hander Jose Lugo and sending him out west.

Lugo, 25 in April, has a live arm with above-average velocity, but reports that he sits in the 94 mph range are apparently incorrect. Two scouts and a Florida State League skipper shared their recent reports on Lugo.

"He's got a good arm," said one scout. "Good arm action, good arm speed. That tells me he could develop that slider better. He was 90-91 for me a few different times. I have heard about the mid-90s stuff, but never seen it, and I was in on them (Fort Meyers Miracle) at least six or eight times. Maybe it's a stadium gun reading that's giving up all the 95s. He did show good life in that pitch, though."

A Reds scout reported that Lugo touched 95, but only twice in his 23 pitches in a game last July 18.

"He was mostly 92,' he said. "Which was enough to dominate that day, and most days for him. When he maintains his posture through his delivery, he stays on top and that's when his fastball gets good sink."

An opposing manager who estimates that his club faced Lugo on five or six occasions had this to say:

"That's a pretty good arm in that kid. He can close in the minors right now, but they had him going more than an inning per outing - maybe that's more valuable in the end. Good fastball, popped the glove. Our guys had him at 91-93, but it was the arm speed and movement that got us.

"When we weren't striking out, we weren't making good contact; weak ground balls. Lugo has some good stuff. It'll be interesting to see what he can do if he sticks (on the M's 25-man).

Lugo's career splits don't suggest that he's a pure left-on-left option, however. He was better versus right-handers last season - by far, more than 100-point differential in OPS - and his command is below average, potentially due to a few mechanical flaws that prevent him from repeating his delivery.

Ryan is a 25-year-old that spent last season with Milwaukee's Southern League affiliate in Double-A Huntsville. He's a ground ball pitcher with average stuff.

"He's a ground ball machine," said an AL East scout. "But that's pretty much what he is. His breaking ball isn't a good pitch, but he found a way to avoid giving up hits."

Ryan's command is below-average, too, but Jack Zduriencik knows him well, so we'll see what else is there. He'll have a shot at the big-league bullpen but can be sent to Triple-A Tacoma as he was taken in the Triple-A portion of the draft.

The M's lost three players from the minor league portion of the draft in right-handers Andrew Barb, Miguel Marquez and Gerardo Esparza.

Esparza, 21, spent last season in the Venezuelan Summer League, using a 90-mph fastball and average slider to hold batters to a .198 average and one home run in 69 frames. The Venezuelan native is headed to Indianapolis of the Pittsburgh organization, where the same roster rules apply.

Marquez, also 21, is a little more projectable than Esparza physically, but also sits in the 89-91 mph range, flashing more velocity at times. His breaking ball, a slurvy offering, is inconsistent. Marquez, also Venezuelan, spent the 2007 season in the Arizona Rookie League, fanning 23 in 30 innings. He missed all of 2008, but will get a chance to stick with Triple-A Pawtuckett of the Red Sox organization.

Barb was acquired in the Jamie Moyer trade with Philadelphia, and was the only player taken in the Double-A phase of the draft. His stuff is limited, and doesn't play up enough for a move to the bullpen.

My guess is that Barb sticks with Double-A Bowie (Baltimore), but Marquez and Esparza are offered back to the Mariners.

Either way, not much was lost in this year's Rule 5, and there is potential gain in Lugo, Coreena and Ryan. None of the three are going to be regulars or starting pitchers, but with the new rules, that's not going to happen much in the Rule 5 Draft anymore.

notebook:-rule-5,-raul

Comments
The following 40 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: FatBat on 12-12-2008 13:40:24
You guy's ever watch the Baseball Draft on ESPN? I have watched it for the last three years, and its pretty interesting! So I am very excited to watch this year, as the Mariners Clean up in the 09' Draft. A lot of picks to be had.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-12-2008 14:10:19
If things go right for them, the Angels could have five or six picks in the same span that the Mariners have four or five, so it'll be important that Zduriencik and McNamara out draft the Halos, because they won't likely do it simply with quanity.

3. By: safecochatter on 12-12-2008 16:03:39
if m's get three picks in the 1st round it'll be awfull tempting to take green the 2nd overall pick. even if he isn't the 2nd best talent. how could u pass up a (probable)future major league ss when u got a gaping hole on your ml team there?

4. By: Jonathan Aircardi on 12-12-2008 16:28:58
Because you NEVER, EVER, EVER draft for need.

Of Green isn't the best player on the draft board when the Mariners pick, they have no business selecting him, regardless of how many other picks they have.

5. By: Slack on 12-12-2008 16:33:20
If the M's draft the best player available for each pick, I'm not worried about how many picks the Angels have.
Any word on how things are going on signing Josh Fields? I'm not sure how I feel about signing him at this point. I'm leaning towards not signing him because another pick in the draft just makes it possibly better.

6. By: slamcactus on 12-12-2008 16:35:25
2 things:

First, wouldn't it be either the 27th pick or the 28th pick, depending on Fields? Perfect Game's raw draft order has the Phillies with the #28 pick right now, and their list includes Seattle picking at #21 as compensation for Fields. http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2009/raw_draft_order.aspx

Second: Correct me if I'm wrong, but supplemental picks in round 1S are sorted first by Type A vs. Type B, and then by the record of the team receiving the pick, right?

In other words, if the Nationals don't get type A compensation for anyone, the Mariners will get the first pick in the 1S round, right?

So that means we're looking at either picks 2, 21, 28, and 34, or picks 2, 27, and 33. Either way, that's pretty sweet.

7. By: slamcactus on 12-12-2008 16:38:57
Whups, looks like I made that compensation ordering up. It's done by Elias ranking. My bad.

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-12-2008 16:42:54
If Philly has the 27th pick in the draft as it stands right now, that's the highest that pick can get. if Fields doesn't sign, it gets pushed back to 28, because the M's would also have 21. If the pg order is correct.

I haven't looked at the draft order lately.

I believe the supplemental picks are sorted by player rating.

All type As ahead of all type Bs and sorted by the free agent player ranking that the pick resulted from.

Seattle will get a higher comp pick for losing Raul than the Dodgers for losing Lowe, because his rating was higher.

Here is the top 20 or of that list, in order.

9. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-12-2008 18:01:44
Yes, you're right, Jason. The Mariners get #21 according to Jim Callis at BaseballAmerica. I was wrong a couple weeks ago, and I'm not sure why Houston picks #22 instead of #21, but that's the way it is.

(Sorry to serve any bad sauce, by the way.)

10. By: safecochatter on 12-12-2008 18:23:19
4) all i meant on 3 was by jason's board..

2 Alex White
3 Aaron Crow
4 Grant Green

is that if your splitting hairs after Stephen Strasburg,then green is awfully tempting.
i'm fully aware of best player available vs need.

11. By: Blowgun7 on 12-12-2008 18:28:29
Jason already adressed this by saying that it's:

1)Strasburg

2)White

3)Crow
4)Green

12. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-12-2008 18:31:59
I think that when you're drafting in the top two of a major-league draft, ipso facto you've got to wind up with either the best pitcher available or the best hitter available in the draft.

I'm honestly not sure if the Nats will pick Strasburg- they can't be looking forward to dealing with another Boras client- but that guy is all over the first-round talents, so it's not like they can avoid it.

Only a gut feeling, but Strasburg probably won't do anything to affect his current status as the clear #1 talent available.

Which brings us to: getting the best hitter in the draft.

1B/OF Dustin Ackley of U. of North Carolina is probably that hitter.

Actually, Jason. Would Aaron Crow or Alex White (or insert a pitcher's name) be a better talent to have at #2?

13. By: Slack on 12-12-2008 19:09:04
Ackley would be a better fit for Safeco than Green as far as hitters are concerned.
Maybe the Nats will take Strasburg. If they are offering Teixiera (sorry if thats not spelled right) as much money as they are, maybe they would spend big for Strasburg if he is the consensus number one on draft day.

14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-12-2008 19:50:33
I'd lean White right now, but I don't think the gap is huge at all, and they both have to pitch this season - White in school and I presume Crow in some indy league.

I like Crow more than most.

15. By: Blowgun7 on 12-12-2008 20:02:21
Jason, didnt you just say the other day that the gap between White and the rest of the guys is about the same as the difference between Strasburg and White?

16. By: Jay Yencich on 12-12-2008 20:19:47
I was just thinking recently... If the Nats have another pick and number ten and Boras is known to make negotiations a little taxing, perhaps they go more economical with their first pick and get value in numbers.

That's all "if" right now, but hey, it could be possible.

17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-12-2008 20:56:06
Yes, blow, I did. Let me clarify.

The numbers I use below don't mean anything, or the rankings themselves necessarily, except for the numbers to show the gaps between the players.

1. Strasburg - 93
2. White - 88
3. Crow - 84
4. Green - 82
5. Gibson - 82
6. Tate - 82
7. Ackley - 81
8. Matzek - 80

Crow is especially attractive to teams who have a good rapport with Boras and want a more signable of his clients.

Some like Gibson more than White, including Prospect Insider friend, Keith Law. But for now, I prefer White, who's more projectable physically while his stuff is on a similar level.

But this season will tell a lot more.

Who's going to see Green with me this spring at the UW?

18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-12-2008 20:57:04
I guess it still depends on whether the Nats want to spend upwards of $5 million on Strasburg.

19. By: Pumpkin on 12-12-2008 22:27:55
Here are two sites that already have mock drafts up for 2009. I thought they were helpful for me to get a basic idea of how the draft looks.

http://www.mlbdraftsite.com/

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft-2009

Jason what do you think of Purke? I have read some amazing reviews on him, and some very bad ones two. People seem to be all over the board with him. What is your opinion on him?

Ackley looks like an awesome hitter, and ussm was saying that he is thought to be able to man Cf. If that is true wouldn't that push his value up quite a bit?

Whether or not we draft Green, I think we should try to draft a couple shortstops with some of our later picks where there is not a clear cut best pick, to build some depth at that position.

20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-13-2008 00:45:24
I like Purke, but I haven't seen him in 2009, have you? That's going to matter so much on all these guys.

21. By: rotoenquire on 12-13-2008 10:22:26
Non tendered guys abound and a couple I really like and could be interesting for the M's...T. Saito RP insentive based contract could be a steal with low risk, same can be said of D. Cabrera SP his has great stuff just needs to work on location problems, could be a closer he can usually have a solid 1-2 innings before he melts? J. Nelson RP could be a great add to the pen and C. Capuano SP off Tommy John Surgery could be a great back end of the rotation guy after rehab and some time in the minors..

What do you think Jason?

22. By: Uncle Al on 12-13-2008 11:55:40
Jason
Do you have any idea how much Heilman is going to cost us in arbitration this year. If Heilman comes in a little under $2M, the budget sits at $105M right now before we get our DH and add him in.
Looks like the next thing they do is sign R.A. Dickey to a cheap contract before making a couple trades involving our three Bavasi turds (Silva, Batista, and Washburn) if it's possible. Balentien and Johnson are two more along with Hulett, LaHair, and Morse who are available. They still need a big LH bat to DH (maybe Griffey for a year) and a big LH bat for LF replacing Balentien who really is better of going to another team. If they come up with these two players, I could care less if they don't have a closer this year. This Zduriencik is so much fun to watch and I still think he will make a trade with Milwaukee who needs at least one of our turds.

23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-13-2008 13:00:29
Who cares what the payroll is? Do you really care? If so, why?

24. By: slamcactus on 12-13-2008 14:29:09
Why so down on Grant Green?

And I realize that listing someone as the #4 talent in the draft isn't really 'down' on him, but many have him as the clear #2 and much farther ahead of Ackley than you rate him, so I'm curious.

I know his walk rate wasn't great last year, but he improved it substantially in the Cape Cod League, showing he can scorch the ball with a wood bat in the process.

I'm a huge fan, and will probably attempt a backflip if the Ms pick him at #2 next year (provided Strasburg is already off the board.

25. By: Uncle Al on 12-13-2008 14:54:31
The M's FO cares about how much the payroll is because they work from a budget. Personally, I could care less as long as they spend enough to put a good team on the field. They aren't going to spend $120M this year so it's not a bad guide to be able to follow what they might be able to do. We're stuck with the three turds with a cost of about $32M this year and don't have a big LH bat to DH yet with about $105M committed so far. They need to get rid of at least one of the turds to get their budget around $100M this year. They've got three first round draft picks and a comp pick they're going to need money for and maybe they turn Engel loose on the International market. Zduriencik has done a beautiful job of massaging this mess so far and I believe he'll get more done. What a difference having a GM makes.

26. By: SMariners11 on 12-13-2008 15:46:46
Jason,
I know that we may not have a 5th Starter, and hopefully we can get rid of Washburn. So what do you think of taking a chance on Daniel Cabrera since he is a FA now and has a good arm?

27. By: jonbbt on 12-13-2008 16:36:19
^We don't have a 5th starter? Felix, Bedard, Silva, RRS, Morrow, Washburn, Heilman, Batista, Feierabend.. I'm counting about 6 "5th starters." We don't need any more starters, especially not any back-end guys.

28. By: SMariners11 on 12-13-2008 17:10:50
RRS can be moved into the pen, Washburn could be traded, Batista could be our closer, Heilman should be in the pen, and Feierabend has no business being in our rotation. So that leaves 4 starters.....Felix, Bedard, Silva and Morrow. You can not always count on Bedard either. Cabrera, if cheap, is worth the risk.

29. By: slamcactus on 12-13-2008 18:58:19
Daniel Cabrera used to have glimpses of otherwordly upside.

At this point, though, he's just a really bad pitcher.

30. By: SMariners11 on 12-13-2008 20:41:57
I know that he isn't that good, but he has had flashes. I just think that it would not be a bad chance to take. Maybe even a minor league deal.

31. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-13-2008 23:53:37
I'd only sign Cabrera with the understanding that he's going to the 'pen.

I think that's his shot at making an impact.

32. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-14-2008 00:18:19
Cabrera for closer in '09!

33. By: Jerry on 12-14-2008 13:41:06
I like the idea of Cabrera as a closer too. He definitely has the stuff to succeed in that role. Perhaps just throwing gas for one inning would help his command a bit. Bit upside there.

But I have to think that some team out there will give him a chance to start. Interesting idea, though.

34. By: Jerry on 12-14-2008 13:47:52
Regarding the draft, I think it is important to note how little consensus there is on the top talents in this draft. There is 100% consensus that Strasburg is the top guy. But after that, opinions are all over the place:

Baseball America: White, Green, Ackley, Crow
Keith Law: Green, White, Gibson, Ackley
Brewerfan.net: Purke, Green, White, Ackley
Churchill: White, Crow, Green, Gibson
Draftinfo.com: Green, Ackley, Tate, White

There are plenty more too.

The point is, there is very little consensus on how the top 10 sort out beyond Strasburg. As always, the better know college guys usually are favored early, with a strong likelihood that one of two prep guys will surge forward as more scouts get to check them out. Donovan Tate, Matthew Purke, and Tyler Maztek all have the tools to be in the top 5, and could easily rise up with a solid year.

This will all become more clear in the next 6 months. But I have to admit that Green is the guy that interests me most at this point. He is a plus bat at a plus position, and should move quickly to the big leagues. He mixes upside with polish. Even if Strasburg is there for the M's at #2, that would be a tough call. Strasburg is the most talented, but the inherent volatility of pitching prospects makes Green a lot safer pick.

Regardless, I can't wait to see what the M's new front office does in this draft. It is likely that the M's top 10 list could include 4 or 5 new additions.

35. By: Slurve on 12-14-2008 13:48:21
Cabrera could be a low risk medium-high reward type guy give him a 2nd chance and there is no telling to what he might do.

36. By: candasharp on 12-14-2008 15:50:35
I'm curious whether Takashi Saito has anything left in his arm that might make it worthwhile to sign him as a closer. Any thoughts?

37. By: StandinPat on 12-14-2008 16:36:57
Saito could be an intriguing choice, as could Chad Cordero. I dont think its gonna be tremendously difficult for the M's to find atleast a decent option at closer this year.

38. By: chrisisasavage on 12-14-2008 20:15:48
I'm thinking Cabrera to the pen too. A fastball/slider guy with heat sounds more like a bullpen arm that a starter.

39. By: chrisisasavage on 12-14-2008 20:18:18
By fastball/slider guy, I mean, since his other offerings suck. People are worried about his velocity being down, but isn't part of that from throwing more 2-seamers?

40. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-14-2008 21:49:36
I think it's more likely that he wasn't right physically, to an extent.

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