Prospect Insider - Notes on League, Vargas

Notes on League, Vargas

By Jason A. Churchill

By 12-03-2011

When the Miami Marlins handed Heath Bell three years and $27 million guaranteed, Brandon League's value grew. Bell's deal includes a vesting option that could raise the total value of the contract to $36 million, and Jonathan Papelbon received $50 million guaranteed from the Philadelphia Phillies last month. That's a lot of scratch for a closer, especially on in Bell is that is not elite.

There are a number of second-tier closer types still available on the free agent market, including Francisco Cordero and Francisco Rodriguez. Frank Francisco and Matt Capps are also available.

Ryan Madson is considered the best available free agent closer and is likely to get more than Bell and a little less than Papelbon. He's being chased by the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Angels.

League's market isn't likely to develop until clubs either decide they aren't willing to commit two or more years and upwards of $8 million per season for a proven ninth-inning option, or once there aren't any of those options remaining.

The right-hander, who is set to make $4 million or so via arbitration and will hit free agency next winter, could generate interest from the Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers and perhaps the Boston Red Sox. The Sox, however, would most likely use League in a setup role, but there's trade value in that, too. The Royals just gave Jonathan Broxton $5 million to set up Joakim Soria.

League, however, fits best in Minnesota, at least on the surface. The Twins lost Joe Nathan to the Texas Rangers and Capps is thought to be requesting a three-year deal worth $8 million per. Cordero and Rodriguez appear to be out of their price range and Madson certainly is just that.

League, by himself, isn't worth a ton in trade value. He's a reliever who will pitch 60-70 innings per season, and he's not a premium arm. But he does have closing experience and pitches well in pitcher's parks -- Target Field in Minnesota absolutely qualifies.

League is also a short-term investment, which is attractive to clubs in terms of whether or not they'd like to have such a player. It does, however, reduce his overall trade value, but $4 million is relatively inexpensive considering the current markets.

The Twins do have some quality pieces that could help the Mariners in 2012 and beyond, and may not be unattainable. We're not talking Joe Mauer or even Denard Span, but left-hander Glen Perkins, third baseman Danny Valencia and shortstop Alexi Casilla could be pieces to such a deal.

The M's want to add a legit backup for Brendan Ryan and Valencia could platoon with Kyle Seager at third base. Valencia, a right-handed hitter, is a bad option for regular play because he can't hit right-handed pitching, but he posted a .309/.352/.470 mark against southpaws a year ago, and isn't arbitration eligible until at least this time next season. (he could be a super two under the new guidelines)

League could net a package including Valencia -- in a vacuum -- but I have a better idea.

The Twins, tweets Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com, have interest in free agent starting pitchers Edwin Jackson and Jeff Francis. They may also also have interest in the likes of Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Aaron Harang and Aaron Cook, and had interest in Chris Capuano before he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Why not Jason Vargas?

Vargas is under club control through 2013 and while he's likely to earn $4-5 million in 2011, that's far cheaper and comes with less risk than handing Jackson three years and as much as $30 million. Francis simply isn't good and aside from Francisco Liriano, the Twins' rotation is right-handed, which may mean they'd prefer to add a lefty, if all else is equal.

Vargas is only guaranteed the one year -- if the club wants to non-tender him prior to 2012 and pay him nothing, they can. It's essentially a no-lose situation.

Vargas is a flyball pitcher right in the middle of his prime years and is reliable, albeit at a No. 4 starting pitcher level.

The M's could trade League and Vargas in the same deal and possibly land a package including Perkins, a deadly left-handed reliever, Valencia, helping solve the third base issue for the season, a backup shortstop and second baseman in Casilla, and maybe a little more. Prospects Aaron Hicks, Miguel Sano, et al, aren't likely on the table, however.

The Mariners don't need Vargas, and they don't need League. They don't. for those that disagree, stop pretending that either is a necessity for a contending team. Sure, you need a closer, but you don't need a fringe-average one, and if the M's other moves this winter suggest they could challenge the Rangers in the AL West, go get a real closer.

Blake Beavan can hold down the No. 4 or 5 spot and if necessary, Charlie Furbush can manage the other. Danny Hultzen probably fills one of the five rotation spots out of spring training behind Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda.

James Paxton isn't likely far behind, either.

If Seattle feels they need some innings covered until Paxton is ready to come up and don't want to count on both Furbush and Beavan, there are veteran free agents out there that are signable at far less than the number Vargas is set to make through arbitration.

The Mariners have better things to do with that kind of money.

The Twins could be a fit, and it works for both clubs. Both teams may go in other directions, and if something does happen it may not become a possibility until after Christmas. Keep an eye on it, though.

notes-on-league,-vargas

Comments
The following 18 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: valencia on 12-03-2011 20:29:46
I don't think we have the bench spots to platoon Valencia/Seager, carry Casilla, carry Jaso, and carry a 4th OFer while we still have Figgins.

I also think it's bad form to pencil in Hultzen to start out of ST, when we've only seen him in limited playing time at the AFL. How many pitchers have gone straight from college to MLB successfully? Even Strasburg did 55 IP in AA-AAA before the MLB.

Perkins is an interesting arm, and something we could target, but it's hard to project him. He added 2mph on his fastball last year, and his pedestrian K% jumped from 13.4% to 25.7%. Is this sustainable?

I do think League and Vargas are the only trade chips we have left, and the Twins are a match, but Perkins and Valencia are not what we're looking for. If it happens they'll be sending prospects, not Sano but maybe a Benson/Hicks + Dozier + Salcedo/Robertson?

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-03-2011 20:45:23
I've written and tweeted several times since September that Figgins won't be around.

Also, The M's have backup plans to Hultzen in Furbush, and can better spent Vargas' 4-5 mil elsewhere, including on a veteran starter to cover any gap if the kids aren't ready.

But it's not "bad form" to pencil in Hultzen. And many times the pitcher gets MiLB time because of developmental issues not because they aren't capable of pitching in the majors.

Leake made the jump and had success, and it's a new era. Teams aren't waiting nearly as long. Hultzen doesn't have much to deveop. He throws strikes with everything, delivery is clean and consistent.

and the Twins aren't trading Hicks for League/Vargas, and I'm not even sure Seattle would want him. They'd rather fill holes.

And yes, Perkins can sustain high success. He's no longer starting games and is facing more left-handers with a tweeked delivery aimed at better angles, and with more effort.

Done.

3. By: SMariners11 on 12-03-2011 21:10:08
I see a fit on alot of levels, like you pointed out with Minnesota losing their closer, but also on the level of these 2 gms are always checking around and they have a long history together and know how each other operate and trust one another.

4. By: Gibbo on 12-04-2011 00:25:53
Agree on Figgins, he won't be kept here. A trade would be good for him too... Gives Figgy a fresh start. Such a shame that he didn't work out here. I would like us to trade Figgy for a starter, a bad contract swap perhaps.

Jason any thoughts on Ian Stewart, would he be a cheap option for the M's to target and is there any upside lef?

5. By: dewey on 12-04-2011 09:09:50
My question on Hultzen is how many guys have gone from the college campus to the Majors and had success? Why be in such a hurry why not let him learn some lessons college baseball is equivalent to low A ball. I dont think Vargas has alot of value on the Market and Leagues value might be hurt by all the Closers on the Free agent market but that could help him also.

6. By: baseballman on 12-04-2011 11:17:34
people should re-read what JAC about Hultzen being in the rotation out of ST. He didn't say the Ms were going to automatically give him a spot, they are going to let him earn it. If he's good enough to pitch in the majors right waste his time in the minors? There is no "hurry" just opportunity. And there's nothing wrong with putting your #2 overall pick in a position to earn his stripes right off the bat.

Straight from JAC in post 2: "And many times the pitcher gets MiLB time because of developmental issues not because they aren't capable of pitching in the majors."

7. By: maqman on 12-04-2011 13:27:30
I would keep Vargas as he just might end up as Fister 2.0. The last three games he pitched this past season, after he added a twist to his delivery, were pretty good. If we hang on to him and see how he does in spring training and he can pick up next season where he left off this year then his trade value will be significantly higher at the trade deadline. That would also allow us to start Hultzen and Paxton in Tacoma and then bring them up after Vargas leaves.

8. By: valencia on 12-04-2011 14:59:53
Hultzen is the backup to Furbush, not the other way around. And Vargas' $5M really can't be spent elsewhere for better, or else the Twins would just take that veteran, and not trade for Vargas. Plus we won't know if the kids are ready until after ST, and by then all the good veterans will be off the market, which means taking a flier on a Colon or Garcia.

To think Hultzen doesn't have any development issues to work out based on a small sample of AFL games is more than optimistic. Strasburg was more polished than Hultzen and he still started AA. And this was 2 years ago, I don't think teams have changed drastically since then.

Hicks is toolsy but he hasn't shown power at any level, so his stock probably isn't as high as you think. And what "holes" do the M's have? Below average 3B, backup SS, and questionable RP arm for a closer and SP3-4 seems like a terrible idea. It's filling unimportant holes while making bigger ones at closer and SP3-4.

9. By: Edman on 12-04-2011 15:23:17
I'm sure Jack will listen to any and all offers, but I'm not certain that he'd initiate any deal for League. I don't think he's interested in being committed creating another hole at closer, while the bullpen is still very young. Granted, the money given to Vargas and League could be spent elsewhere, but he says he's looking for a veteran starter, so trading Vargas would make that two veteran arms, unless he's convinced that Furbush could fill that role. I'm not sure how committed to that he is. Furbush is probably a bullpen guy in the long-term.

I don't think Jack would want to keep ridding himself of guys nearing veteran status. He's going to need them to buffer the transition of the kids.

I would be surprised if he traded both League and Vargas this season. And in particular, League. I don't think he's going to want to worry about the difference between trading League and finding a lower cost veteran to close, or want to throw one of the kids into that roll at the start of the season.

We'll know the answer soon enough.

10. By: rotoenquire on 12-04-2011 15:30:20
The M's have said they are looking to sign a SP. And are in the hopes of adding a bat. We have to remember Ryan is just filler till Franklin is ready. As for Liddi he may not even be a starting option this year. Liddi did not look great or even adequate in Dominican League play. Again Liddi maybe a place holder till F. Martinez is ready. League and Vargas as a trade combo makes a lot of sense. Weather it be the Twins, Reds.

Twins: Hicks is a speedy, plus OF with no real pop. But he is lower on the OF prospect list, Arcia, Benson and Revere project better. Valencia projects as an everyday Third Basemen and maybe hard to get.

Reds: Have some interesting more expendable pieces. T. Frazier 3B/OF/1B would be a great add, J. Francisco 3B high strike out guy, but some serious pop. Reds also have 2 solid C prospects and one can be had in either Mesoraco or Grandal. B. Hamilton or Z. Cozart at SS would also be nice adds and can play 3B.

League and Vargas along with Moore and Saunders for Cozart, Grandal, Francisco would be a decent get. Or with the Twins A. Hicks OF, A. Whimmers SP, C. Parmelee 1B For League, Vargas, Moore and Saunders.

11. By: rth1986 on 12-04-2011 22:28:40
I think the Reds and Mariners match up much better than the Twins. I don't really like anything the Twins would have to offer.

If the Mariners could somehow trade League and Vargas for Grandal and Yonder Alonso - I would be ecstatic. There might have to be some extra pieces to that deal, but I think it's fairly even. League is an all-star closer and Vargas is an experienced rotation arm, while Grandal and Alonso have high upside but very limited MLB experience.

Also, I wonder what the chances are of the Mariners trading off Olivo. Now that we have Jaso, I'd much rather give Olivo's spot to pretty much anybody - even Moore. If we got Grandal, then it'd be that much easier.

12. By: bodhizefa on 12-04-2011 23:08:34
rht, you're insane, man. The Reds aren't stupid. There's no way we could get that deal.

13. By: d2ret on 12-05-2011 00:20:59
Am glad to have a PI subscription this time of year :)

Its cold as hell outside, but the stove is about to heat up baby

14. By: rth1986 on 12-05-2011 00:29:40
bodhizefa- haha..yes, but they keyword is 'somehow'

I'm sure the Reds would want some more. We have enough secondary pieces, I'm sure we could make it work.

I think it's crazy when I hear people talk about a Pineda-Alonso swap. Alonso might be a solid hitter, but I don't see any indication that he'll be an elite one. He has limited defensive value and no speed. He's not probably a significant upgrade even over Carp at this point. I think Alonso's value is greatly exaggerated.

15. By: Wishhiker on 12-05-2011 02:51:04
I don't hardly ever comment, but it seems to me that Vargas and League combined wouldn't even be headliners for that deal. I think you're missing the first piece, not the 2nd or 3rd.

A package of guys with projection left for improvement who are young can sometimes net a top young player. League and Vargas don't match up with the quality of players I can recall headlining deals for blue chippers that have their foot in the MLB door. That's for one of them, but both? The average fan might see them as headliners when Paxton or Walker went with them, but I would not. Don't even think that'd be enough.

If I had Grandal and Alonso I might consider a package headlined by League and Vargas, for one of them, but a top 10 prospect would still have to be part of the sweetener.

I think Carp is being overrated by many M's fans. Throughout the game Alonso has been considered a top prospect for years while Carp has not.

16. By: Gibbo on 12-05-2011 04:20:43
Yes I think getting Grandal is the guy I would like the most a switch hitting C would just be a great fit, add in Alonso and it will cost plenty, but potentially worth it IMO. If we got Fielder, Alonso is the guy I would like as our starting LF, as long as his bat could make up for the average D. You know as much as people ragged on Raul's D, how much would you of liked a bat like his the last few years, not his Philly numbers of course, the bat he had when he was with us.

17. By: FatBat on 12-05-2011 13:33:10
Wishhker, though I agree with your comments on vargas and League not being enough to net a blue chipper prospect, Alonzo could be nice bat, but in baseball nothing is that simple as "Alonzo has been considered a top prospect for years Carp has not". Baseball is full of unexplained stardom. Who ever thought Dan Uggla would crush at the Major league level? oh and my favorite comparison.... Mike Morse? We saw Carp last yr handle safeco very well, and the major leagues, he might not repeat but, I wouldnt be too quick to discard him as not having much value because he wasnt a Top prospect. I don't think anyone here is realy over valueing him, just remembering he was one of the only guys to do anything on this team last year.

18. By: rjfrik on 12-05-2011 13:49:40
You guys have to remember where we play baseball at. Alonso playing LF in Safeco would be a nightmare. He is the furthest thing from an OF defensively. He needs to be at 1st or DH.

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