| By Chris Crawford |  | By 02-27-2011 |
Prospect Insider has learned that the Mariners may have come to agreement with James Paxton, via Alex Meyer on Twitter. Meyer, a junior, is a first-round talent in this year's draft class.
We would have placed Paxton No. 9 on the handbook, but that is based very much on Paxton regaining his form within a year or so, and that's a guess at this point.
As for 2011, Paxton could stay behind in extended spring training to catch up, or he could start the season in Class-A with a chance to move up quickly.
Command and consistent secondary stuff are typically the areas of rust after long layoffs.
paxton-signs
Comments
The following 51 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: baseballman on 02-28-2011 00:09:02 This made my night! I think everyone knows what a big Paxton fan I am. I think he could be perfect right behind Felix and before Pineda to give us that num. 2 lefty. |
| 2. By: Stormton on 02-28-2011 00:34:29 Yes! Hopefully we get something more official soon but this seems legit. |
| 3. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-28-2011 01:10:45 Bingo! |
| 4. By: FWBrodie on 02-28-2011 02:04:51 It's like a free trade. Awesome. |
| 5. By: Adam P. Boyd on 02-28-2011 02:13:50 Good stuff, thanks Chris. Glad to see continued success with these Zduriencik/Boras negotiations. |
| 6. By: Edman on 02-28-2011 02:32:25 I'm not going to get too excited. He's missed a lot of baseball, and from all that I've observed over the years, those layoffs hurt pitchers more than hitters. It's a good thing, just not a great thing, at this point. |
| 7. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-28-2011 02:54:18 Yeah, I hate to see him turn into another Josh Fields. I'm not saying that Josh won't be good down the road, but he really lost a lot of valuable time. He could've been pitching in the majors last year probably if he had signed right away. |
| 8. By: sexymarinersfan on 02-28-2011 02:54:48 Josh Fields that is, not Paxton. |
| 9. By: Adam P. Boyd on 02-28-2011 03:07:28 Fields didn't really miss that much time. Say he had signed on the deadline... he maybe missed a few games and an AFL appearance. |
| 10. By: Adam P. Boyd on 02-28-2011 03:11:05 I know you said "if he had signed right away", but that is not something Boras clients do. |
| 11. By: Edman on 02-28-2011 11:24:41 I disagree, Adam. Fields missed more than a few AFL appearances. He missed getting instruction in the fall, and potentially getting into a Winter League. Paxton missed almost two years of organized ball. The idea that he can step into a #2 starter's role, is grossly optimistic, IMHO. I know baseballman is a big fan, but realistically, he is going to need time to get the mental and physical part of his game back into shape. Starters with that kind of capability need to get instruction as soon as possible to hone those talents. I wish him the best, but he has a lot to prove. |
| 12. By: baseballman on 02-28-2011 11:28:55 Im no naive to believe that Paxton is going to make the team as a number 2 right out of ST. Or step right in and be some dominant force. Im not sure he even pitches in an Ms uni at any point this year. Im just happy because, like Chris said, if Paxton can regain what he was, this is a huge coup for us. I would much rather have that type of ability signed to see what might happen then not signed. Will he ever be that number 2 starting pitcher? probably not. but could he be? yes, and thats why Im excited. |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-28-2011 11:43:23 No, it's a pretty great thing. The M's got him cheap (not allowed to share the number told to me just yet, but it's good for the team) and he's been throwing a lot on the side. The layoff is more than the Crows and Hochevars, so there is a concern there, but it's not whether or not he can come back and be good. It's how long it will take. Tanner Scheppers hasn't been impacted much, if at all. Paxton may look bad for a year or so, and then it clicks again. |
| 14. By: Rick Randall on 02-28-2011 12:58:51 I don't want to get too far ahead of myself here, but: Felix, Pineda, Cole, Paxton, anyone with a usable extremity above the waist is a pretty intriguing rotation. |
| 15. By: Wes45 on 02-28-2011 13:18:52 Since we're talking hypothetical future rotations, does Yu Darvish make any sense? In your opinion: A) What do you think he would cost in terms of posting fee and contract offer? Is the Matsuzaka deal a reasonable comparison? On one hand, spending seemed to be nuttier back when Matsuzaka signed but, on the other hand, Darvish might be a better player. B) Is he worth that cost based on skill set? Success doesn't seem to translate very well for Japanese pitchers thus far. C) Would the Mariners be a viable option? Would they be willing to spend the required amount and would Darvish have any interest in them? We haven't been the de facto destination for Japanese players for quite some time so I'm certainly not making any assumptions based on his nationality. |
| 16. By: maqman on 02-28-2011 13:19:37 Felix, Pineda, Cole, Paxton? How about Bedard? I hope they got a decent discount on Paxton, he's been gathering dust for quite a while. I wonder if this will incline them to go for a bat with the second pick in June? |
| 17. By: baseballman on 02-28-2011 13:34:57 RE 16: i doubt paxton has any effect on the #2 pick. I dont think having Paxton signed moves Cole down the Ms board at all. They'll take whoever they believe is the best player there be it Rendon (if the bucs somehow pass), Cole, Starling or Springer. A rotation of Felix, Pineda, Cole, Paxton, Robles/Beavan/Fister/whoever looks awesome, especially playing 81 games in safeco. |
| 18. By: Edman on 02-28-2011 13:46:32 I agree, Jason. I fully expect him to put up average numbers, at best, this season. Anything more, would be a plus. Sadly, he lost two years of his career. That's a lot to lose, when you consider how he's going to be affected by service time. |
| 19. By: dawgncarolina on 02-28-2011 15:14:12 HE DIDN'T LOSE TWO YEARS! He played more baseball in 2009 than Taijuan Walker played in 2010 and nobody's freaked out about him losing a year. Paxton lost one year, plus a small portion of another. He's going to be rusty, no doubt. But he didn't miss anything close to two full years of development. This is a great signing, especially if it's as team friendly as Jason's post suggests. Great work on this, PI. A great pick me up after last night's hoops disaster. |
| 20. By: Edman on 02-28-2011 15:40:22 Yes, he did lose two years. If you want to think that the instruction level in the Indy league is on par with even the College level, that's fine. Technically, he threw the baseball. But, as far as I'm concern, throwing without the guidance of major and minor league instruction, are lost years. It's a good signing, no doubt. But that's two years of lost time, trying to refine his delivery. |
| 21. By: baseballman on 02-28-2011 15:47:30 RE 20: Edman, before you say he had no guidance while pitching in the Indy league, do you know that for a fact? Do you know for a fact he had absolutely no coaching or guidance? because if you dont, then you should probably stop saying it. |
| 22. By: dawgncarolina on 02-28-2011 15:56:55 No Edman, he didn't lose 2009. He pitched a full college season. Hope that helps. |
| 23. By: Rick Randall on 02-28-2011 16:30:55 He did indeed pitch a full college season in 2009: 115 Ks and 20 BB in 78 1/3 IP. |
| 24. By: dawgncarolina on 02-28-2011 16:33:27 Thank you Rick. This isn't a hard concept to grasp. |
| 25. By: Adam P. Boyd on 02-28-2011 16:56:35 "I disagree, Adam. Fields missed more than a few AFL appearances. He missed getting instruction in the fall, and potentially getting into a Winter League" Not sure what you are disagreeing with, Edman. I said Fields missed some time, but not enough that it can be blamed for 2009 and 2010's disappointments. Scheppers missed much more time and was unhittable at the AA level. |
| 26. By: Edman on 02-28-2011 18:13:36 baseballman, I suggest you reread my post. I said If you want to think that the instruction level in the Indy league is on par with even the College level, that's fine. And yes, that's an opinion. And it's my opinion that the better coaches end up in the minor leagues, or major college programs. Hense, he would likely not have received the same level of instruction, had he started his minor league career after being drafted. Technically, he missed ~ 1.5 years of minor league instruction. I agree that it's not two full seasons. Sadly for Paxton, he probably lost several $100K by not signing sooner. |
| 27. By: dawgncarolina on 02-28-2011 18:42:10 It's very rare for a pitcher to get anything close to a half season of innings after having thrown a full college season already. I think 1.5 is still excessive, though I'm glad you're finally acknowledging it's not two. |
| 28. By: Adam B. on 02-28-2011 19:34:03 To the people throwing out projected rotations ala; Hernandez, Cole, Paxton, Pineda, Robles, etc. I know it's fun to dream, but anyone with a memory can recall when the Mariners dream rotation was going to be Garcia, Anderson, Meche, Cloude and Blackley. All I'm saying is that we need to temper our expectations and realize that pitching prospects are by nature a fickle breed and that attrition rates are extremely high. |
| 29. By: dawgncarolina on 02-28-2011 20:29:44 Adam, I don't think anyone ever had a projected rotation with Cloude and Blackley, but the point is well taken. There have been at least two separate "dream rotations" in the past decade or so: Garcia Meche Piniero Anderson Felix Nageotte Blackley Thornton random other arm What's important isn't that we could have a rotation of Felix/Cole/Pineda/Paxton/whoever, it's that we're finally restocking the system with some solid to high upside arms. It's been awhile since we've been in that position. |
| 30. By: FelixElRey on 02-28-2011 20:30:38 When someone mentioned Darvish earlier, it made me wonder if he is even close to the star that Ichiro was in Japan. If so, would it make sense to be willing to overpay in his posting in order to maintain the Japan market as Ichiro winds down his career. |
| 31. By: baseballman on 02-28-2011 21:36:15 RE 29: who cares? Its fun and it doesnt hurt anything. Will the rotation one day consist of all: Felix, Pineda, Cole, Paxton etc? maybe not, but it could and its fun to dream/talk about. Nothin wrong at all with people projecting the future with our prospects. if we arent allowed to be excited about our farm system, whats the point of even being a fan? |
| 32. By: dawgncarolina on 02-28-2011 21:48:41 I think you misread my post baseballman, I wasn't at all suggesting what you seem to think I was. |
| 33. By: baseballman on 02-28-2011 21:52:00 Sorry, that should have read "RE 28" I completely agreed with your post 29 dawg. |
| 34. By: Adam B. on 03-01-2011 02:03:11 baseballman, No one is saying you can't rosterbate, by all means whatever floats your boat; the point of my original post is that whenever the M's sign a projectable arm, people get this glazed-eyed, slack-jawed expression and boundless hyperbole ensues. My point is that people SHOULD care that while the M's are collecting pitching talent, the vast majority of it doesn't reach the major leagues. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, just don't drink too much of the kool-aid. |
| 35. By: Edman on 03-01-2011 02:41:28 It's a near lock that the projected rotations put up right now won't happen. Too many things happen to even worry about it right now. As Dawg pointed out, it's about getting more quality arms in the system so that when things don't work out as you plan, you've got other options. What if Vargas or Fister mature? They may not draft Cole. The list goes on. Rosterbate all you want, with the realization that change is more likely to happen, than not. |
| 36. By: Marlin Man on 03-01-2011 12:15:28 PAXTON? so did he sign or not????? |
| 37. By: StandinPat on 03-01-2011 13:40:20 It appears the contract is agreed apon, but not yet signed, due to pending physical. |
| 38. By: Mackie on 03-01-2011 16:04:29 Definitely, Edman is right about tempering enthusiasm somewhat, simply because if the laws of averages prevail, not all of these young starting pitchers in the Mariners minors are going to make it to the major league rotation. Some will get injured, some will get traded, and some just won't end up having the skills. And because a team can never have enough good pitching, there could even be other names in the rotation none of us can imagine at the moment, i.e. guys who will be acquired in trades or signed as free agents, instead of some of these youngsters. But I still find it exciting that along with Felix, the Mariners are putting together a pretty nice group of young starting pitchers to develop and work from. It seems that by a couple of years from now Seattle could have at least three or four helpful starting pitchers from among Vargas, Fister, French, Pineda, Robles, Walker, Paxton, Beavan, Pauley, Ramirez, Gilheeney, Fernandez, Seco + a few others already in the system + a few more that will be drafted this year. Some may not project all that high, but sometimes those guys can surprise us by being useful and giving the ball club some good and workmanlike performances over time, putting together average careers in the process. However things go, if pitching can be built as an organizational strength... so much the better! I'm thrilled about this signing! |
| 39. By: edandvick1313@msn.com on 03-01-2011 17:17:45 JASON i haven't received the book as yet. I am lifetime member.Thanks....Ed |
| 40. By: sexymarinersfan on 03-01-2011 18:08:04 Exactly! Michael Pineda was THE surprise for me last year. A couple of years ago he wasn't on the radar and now look at where our organization values him. I'm so glad that we didn't trade him to Arizona for B.J. Upton. |
| 41. By: Adam B. on 03-01-2011 18:23:15 SMF, It was Justin not B.J they'd have traded for--The better of the brothers by far. I also agree with you about Pineda in principle; The Mariners just have no business making trades that aren't from a position of depth, and pitching is obviously still an issue for them. That said, if the Mariners rotation were to suddenly solidify behind Felix in the next couple of years (Paxton, Cole, etc.) then I would have no problem trading prospects like Pineda for someone as talented as Justin Upton. |
| 42. By: Timberwolf on 03-01-2011 23:34:27 If guys can come off Tommy John surgery and return to form, guys can certainly rebound from a couple of slacker seasons. The guy has been delayed, but the only real loser is him. It is going to take him one or two extra years to reach arbitration and free agency. Who knows, ten years from now he may be glad he didn't throw all those extra pitches in his early 20's. Just good to see another talented pitcher on the team. |
| 43. By: sexymarinersfan on 03-02-2011 03:51:53 I meant Justin. I don't know why I typed B.J.. Sorry bout that. I'm excited about the #2 pick this year. I'll be happy with just about whomever they select. Now it's not just Cole and Springer anymore. Francisco Lindor and Bubba Starling have been added to the list for potential #2. |
| 44. By: dawgncarolina on 03-02-2011 10:47:54 I don't want Lindor at all. If Rendon's off the board Cole is easily my top choice, with Starling probably next unless another arm emerges. But this draft for me is pretty much Rendon/Cole. |
| 45. By: slamcactus on 03-02-2011 14:39:02 Saying Rendon/Cole and nobody else at this point is pretty foolish. Last year at this time Grant Green was everyone's focal point at #2 overall and Ackley was at the back end of the top-10 before solidifying himself as the consensus #2 by draft day. Cole's been looking pretty solid but not exactly dominant out of the gate, and Rendon's battling through shoulder issues that have left him at DH for the past several games. Both are outstanding talents and still on most scouts and teams' boards at #1 and #2, but there is plenty of time for someone in the 2nd or 3rd tier of first round prospects to shoot past either of them, either by reason of their excellent performance or because one or both of Rendon/Cole see their stock slip. |
| 46. By: dawgncarolina on 03-03-2011 01:46:42 "Saying Rendon/Cole and nobody else at this point is pretty foolish. Last year at this time Grant Green was everyone's focal point at #2 overall and Ackley was at the back end of the top-10 before solidifying himself as the consensus #2 by draft day." Wow, I believe you are seriously overplaying your hand. Setting aside the fact it was two years ago and not last year, I have a hard time with your statement that Ackley was at the back end of the consensus top10. Green may have had a slight edge on Ackley at this point, but in my memory it was a virtual dead heat, and every source I can quickly find confirms that. To wit: Jason Churchill, February 18 2009. http://prospectinsider.com/view/pre-season-thoughts-on-grant-green,-ss/ Key quote: "But entering the year, I can’t jump on (Green's) bandwagon over Alex White or Dustin Ackley (unless Ackley truly is a first baseman versus a center fielder), despite the risks that come with pitchers." Dave Cameron, on October 20, 2008, names Ackley his Strasburg Alternate #2. Yeah, it's behind Green, but very far from "Back end of the top ten": http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/10/20/strasburg-alternative-no-2-dustin-ackley/ I can't get into Baseball America's pre 2009 rankings as I'm not a subscriber anymore, but I imagine they'd say about the same thing: that Green and Ackley were considered 1/2 or even 1a/1b as far as Strasburg consolation prizes were concerned (with White in the mix). As far as my statement that "this draft for me is pretty much Rendon/Cole," I suppose I should have added the caveat "at this point" (I assumed it was implied). Obviously if Rendon can't stay healthy or Cole can't find the strike zone this year that would change things. But at this point my board looks about like this: 1. Rendon (huge gap) 2. Cole (big gap) 3. Starling 4. Springer 5. Lindor None of the other pitchers excites me much. Purke has slot issues, Gray is short and doesn't have the dominating stuff that Lincecum did at that size (not that anyone does), etc. Gray is the best combination of build, stuff and performance. His K:BB last year stands out very nicely to me. Clearly, everything is subject to change. But RIGHT NOW I would be thrilled to add Rendon, excited to add Cole, and pretty disappointed in selecting anyone else. Jason, Chris and Rick, sorry in advance for the long post. Not trying to hijack your blog, just clarify my statement. |
| 47. By: dawgncarolina on 03-03-2011 01:48:15 Arrrgh. That should say "Cole is the best combination..", not Gray. That's what I get for not proofreading. |
| 48. By: baseballman on 03-03-2011 11:54:26 Basically I think we can all agree that Ms will get a "potential" TOR stud SP or a legit MOTO bat. I know Starling has more potential than Springer, but by the time the draft roles around, the fact that Springer is much closer to the majors, could that move him up the Ms draft board? |
| 49. By: slamcactus on 03-04-2011 16:03:26 You're right, it was 2 years ago. I'm still living in 2010 apparently. In their preseason rankings, BA had Ackley as the #4 college guy (behind Strasburg, Grant Green and Alex White). So did Perfect Game. That was before we knew how weak that year's high school class would end up looking. Right now Rendon and Cole look to have a little bit of distance from the pack. I actually think Rendon has a few more questions than Cole does at this point. I wouldn't take the field over those two when trying to predict the #1 overall pick, but I'm on the fence about whether it's more likely than not that those two are still the consensus top-2 on draft day. A ton can change between now and then. |
| 50. By: davelee99 on 03-04-2011 16:04:22 Did the Paxton physical ever take place? |
| 51. By: ceeds on 03-04-2011 17:16:21 Done deal. Paxton is officially a Seattle Mariner. |
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