| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-26-2008 |
In the midst of the holidays, I'm here to clean out my notebook, use what I can use, and toss the rest in my recycle bin for the winter.Scouts React to Putz deal, Zduriencik's first two months
While the majority of the blogosphere liked the trade that sent J.J. Putz to the New York Mets, club analysts and scouts had differing opinions.
"I really thought they should have waited it out," said one NL club's special assistant. "We would have explored the idea (of trading for Putz) if we had more time to see what other pieces fell our way. And I'd have to think we would have offered a better package. I can't be sure of that, but, you know, it seems like we have more to trade from than did the Mets.
"I really think the prospects would have been significantly better."
While I agree with him to an extent, I think getting Gutierrez, Chavez and Heilman in the deal may very well have been more from the big-league roster than his club could have offered, and Jack Zduriencik was clearly after more than just prospects, who always bring the risk of never turning out to be anything at all.
"They did okay," replied a scout from an AL West rival. "I do believe that they strengthened their roster overall. Putz could slam the door on anyone, so we're glad he's out of there."
A National League executive added the following:
"I think it was quantity over quality, too," he said in response to my suggestion that the Mariners got bulk rather than impact talent in return. "But you have to like and respect what Jack is doing in Seattle. If that first trade was any idication, that organization is headed in a direction that only about a half-dozen others are headed. And that's a direction that breads long-term winning."
Draft Picks Set... Sorta
Since the Philadelphia Phillies did not sign Mark Teixeira and are not going to sign Manny Ramirez after landing Raul Ibanez, the M's will receive Philly's first rounder next June, which will be either No. 28 or 29, depending on whether the M's sign Josh Fields or not.
For explanations of arbitration, draft-pick compensations and other offseason goodies, check out the primer.
Assuming Zduriencik passes on Fields, which is what I expect him to do, Seattle's draft picks will look like this:
First Round
No. 2, 21, 29
Supplemental Round
No. 35 overall
Second Round
Between 40 and 49 overall, depending on the remaining Type A free agents - Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Ramirez, Juan Cruz, Orlando Hudson, Jason Varitek, Orlando Cabrera, Brian Fuentes, Ben Sheets.
Hudson is not going back to Arizona, nor is Cabrera headed back to the White Sox or Fuentes back to the Rockies, which means at least three of the Type As will find new teams, which sends a supplemental pick to their former clubs, pushing the M's second round pick down a slot for each.
Assuming seven of the remaining nine Type As sign with another team other than their 2008 club, the M's second round pick would end up at No. 47 overall, giving them five picks in the first 47, and the ammo to do some serious damage next June.
Even if Steve Strasburg goes 1-1 to Washington, the Mariners are armed and ready to completely turn around their farm system between now and then.
If the Nationals pass on Strasburg, whose asking price could begin as high as $10 million, the M's draft might be the most exciting event in the organization's history, this side of 1995.
Draft Compensation System Broken
As ESPN's Keith Law writes here, baseball's free-agent compensation system doesn't work. Law cites one perfect example - the Red Sox fantastic 2005 Draft. Go read the rest, it's very convincing.
Hawaiian Winter League Folds
The three-year return of the Hawaiian Winter Baseball League has ended, as Major League Baseball has decided to "consolidate" the offseason leagues to Arizona, where the Arizona Fall League already resides.
Expect a second circuit to come to fruition before the summer is over, of not sooner.
Programming Note
If things work out, yours truly will be assisting ESPN's Scouts Inc. with their draft coverage this winter and spring. The details are yet to be determined, but this will mean better coverage here at Prospect Insider, too.
I'll be seeing more players - at UW, where Grant Green makes an appearance, a few prep players worth checking out, and probably a trip or two to see Strasburg and others in California.
pi-notebook
Comments
The following 50 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: yohnhimself on 12-27-2008 00:33:29 I've sort of been expecting Zduriencik to pass on Fields. He probably looks at adding another pick in the first round to the picks we already have as a golden opportunity to restock the farm system; plus he just doesn't seem like the type of guy to pick a reliever in the first round, at least not when the organization is in the shape it is currently. Good to see that you'll likely be helping out ESPN on their draft coverage; I really look forward to your draft stuff every year. Glad to see that other people more important than me are also paying attention. Hopefully we can have another live draft chat like this past season; and hopefully the M's picks will be received a bit better. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-27-2008 01:13:52 We'll talk draft all winter, too, yohn. As soon as I get some time to set it up and test it out a few times, we'll start the Prospect Insider radio show, as well. |
| 3. By: safecochatter on 12-27-2008 01:37:20 as for keith law's article.. type A players like Jason Varitek and Orlando Cabrera having problems getting serious offers do to the compensation by signing teams. losing #1 draft picks for signing them is a bit much. perhaps changing the grading system so there is fewer type A's. but to do away with the compensation system altogether,is wrong. |
| 4. By: jgstecker on 12-27-2008 10:03:14 The pick we get from Philly will either be #27 or #28. We definitely won't get #29 since its locked in to the Yankees for failing to sign the the 28th pick last year. Also, don't the supplemental picks for Type B free agents come before the second round? That would push our second rounder down to 57 if no other A/B free agents re-up with their old teams. |
| 5. By: Uncle Al on 12-27-2008 10:21:32 I don't see how anyone can fault Zduriencik on his trade with the Mets and Indians. If that fool Bavasi hadn't made that insane Bedard trade, the M's wouldn't have needed a player for CF. The Putz trade gave them players who fill multiple roles and could still be helpful in 2010 and beyond if even in back up roles. Even though it's not a big deal, landing Hairston for a two or more year contract would give the M's all kinds of flexibility in the IF. It is important to land him in that context. People must realize that Washburn is going to be traded this year but who knows for what. Worst case, Beltre goes into FA and the M's get two draft picks. I don't think anybody knows how the Bedard situation is going to play out. There's a possibility of 3 more trades taking place this year and less than $70M spent on 25 players for the 2010 season. They are going to have a lot of money to upgrade certain positions. The whole farm system will be a year older and moving closer to being ML ready and worth more for trades. The M's are only 2-3 players away from having a nice team this year but that's asking for a lot this year. Anything Zduriencik does this year that also helps 2010 just makes the job that much easier in 2010. The Putz trade took away many question marks and should make future trades easier so they can target specific players. |
| 6. By: junglist215 on 12-27-2008 11:02:14 FWIW, the compensation round goes in reverse order of how the teams finish. Which means that M's should have the 34th pick in that round. Also, don't forget that the Pirates will receive back the 49th pick for failing to sign Tanner Scheppers. |
| 7. By: Slack on 12-27-2008 11:52:01 I agree that draft pick compensation doesn't necessarily work. I think that if it were done away with, we would see better players available in the second round. You can get good players in the second round regardless but this would just make it even stronger. Imagine the Red Sox comp picks in '05 coming in the second round. As for the M's draft in '09, even if I'm crossing my fingers for Strasburg, if the Nats take him, the M's could pick White, Ackley or Green and I'd be thrilled. I'm high on Matzek and Purke as well. This draft could be like a second christmas, especially if Fields isn't signed. |
| 8. By: slick on 12-27-2008 14:34:55 The order of the supplemental round between the first and second rounds is determined by inverse order of the previous year's standings. All the Type A picks are done first, and then the order resets for all the Type B compensation picks. Teams can also earn compensation for unsigned picks from the previous year's draft. If a team doesn't sign a first or second round pick, they will get to pick at the same slot plus one the following year. For instance, if the team with the #5 pick does not sign that player, they would have the #6 pick the following year. The regular draft order would continue around those picks. For compensation for not signing a third round pick, teams would get a pick in a supplemental round between the third and fourth rounds. If a team fails to sign a player with one of these compensated picks, there is no compensation the following year |
| 9. By: ThePaul on 12-27-2008 14:48:53 We're not taking Matzek or Purke unless they fall to #28 - which may happen. You don't take HS prep arms with the #2 pick unless they rival the ceiling of Beckett or Porcello coming out of HS. I like Green, but can he really stay at SS? The scouting reports say yes, but that's a big frame. If he does move, how much does that decrease his value. If we do pick him, he's another free swinger in the org. whose going to rack up a number of K's. Still, if Strasburg's not there, I'd take him - at this point. I don't know if I'd consider Ackley unless he had an absolute monster year in center. His value goes up if he sticks in center, but he'd be blocked in Sea by Gut, Saunders, Halman. If they value Ackley on par with others such as White, then I'd like them to take the latter. White is good. Really really good. Ideal pitcher's frame coupled with great sinker and slider (plus-plus, plus according to BA). But does Z take a pitcher with someone like Green still available (at this point)? Probably not. Then again...it's Dec. 27. All bets are off come June. |
| 10. By: ThePaul on 12-27-2008 14:53:53 BTW - not taking Matzek or Purke at #21 either or any other prep player w/o prearranged deal. We either take someone with a pre-arranged deal or a college senior. Hopefully the news on Scheppers is good, and he falls to #21. Crow doesn't fall that far unless he absolutely bombs in the 3-4 appearances he makes for Forth Worth by the time the draft comes around. And by bomb, I mean throwing in the high 80's and having no shape on his slider (Not likely). |
| 11. By: shemberry on 12-27-2008 17:02:58 I really like Tate. I wonder how likely he is to sign due to his football commitment, but he is a potential superstar IMO. |
| 12. By: Blowgun7 on 12-27-2008 17:15:59 Tate won't pass up first round money to play football. He's a very good football player, but a better baseball player |
| 13. By: Slack on 12-27-2008 17:25:29 The thing about Ackley that I like is the left handed power. That would profile well at Safeco. You could also make a case that Ackley is blocked by Carp or Raben at first base but you never know how things will pan out. If Matzek or Purke were still there at #21, I'd take them. Not at #2 (even if I'm high on them) but if you can take Aumont at #11, you can take a power lefty at #21. We'll see when June rolls around. |
| 14. By: bodhizefa on 12-27-2008 17:51:21 There are a plethora of factors that go into the evaluation of this deal, not the least of which was Putz' health in '08. Add to that the short shelf life of most relievers and the fact that the massive defensive impact of Gutierrez is being completely overlooked by almost all press and even the scouts and we have ourselves an equation for a crappy evaluative methodology by those in question. Plus we got a boatload of peripheral talent to stock our beleaguered organization. I'm much happier with Gutierrez and all the others than I would have been had we stuck with Putz, and that's even if Putz were completely healthy. Why in the world would we have needed a shutdown closer while winning 65 games, lol?! The scouts know plenty. But they seem to have a hard time putting together a total +/- run evaluation on players' talents, including offensive and defensive values. Thank God for sabermetrics blending excellently with scouting in the new Seattle regime! |
| 15. By: Blowgun7 on 12-27-2008 18:27:24 If Ackley can't play CF, and ends up at 1B his value is decreased substantially IMO.. Alex White would seem like the good pick at this point, if you are worried about Green's ability to stay at SS |
| 16. By: slick on 12-27-2008 18:33:46 I think Ackley is a safe bet to be a solid pro, but I dont think his ceiling is as high as some others in the draft. Ackley has hit over 400 both years in college and hit over 400 in Cape Cod with limited ABs. Ackley also had 20SB last year. I think he profiles more as a left fielder who can play center in a pinch. From what I saw of him in the ACC and CWS I dont think he has alot of Raw power more of a gap power guy who can turn on a fastball from time to time. I would not compare him to Smoak or Wallace from last years draft. If he ends up at 1B I think he could be A Coner Jackson or Marc Grace type of player. |
| 17. By: ThePaul on 12-27-2008 20:02:30 Slack, if Sea takes a prep player at #21 (assumption they don't sign fields), then they've got no leverage to negotiate unless they got a pre-arranged deal. |
| 18. By: ThePaul on 12-27-2008 20:06:22 Slick, any idea what his iso was his last two years? I'm too lazy to go check out stats right now. lol. |
| 19. By: slick on 12-27-2008 21:42:13 # 18 http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Dustin-Ackley.shtml This link has some stats on Ackley, and a scouting profile. |
| 20. By: rotoenquire on 12-27-2008 22:03:09 The current system is broken no doubt. But I am looking forward to what will happen with the M's in this draft....Fields will be set free and the M's will get another pick this is how I see the M's picks playing out, with a little hope tossed in.. #2 Aaron Crow RHP Fort Worth Cats #21 Ryan Ortiz 1B/C Oregon #29 Mike Minor LHP Vanderbuilt #35 Ryan Jackson SS Miami #47 Chris Dominquez 3B Louisville #51 Jacob Morris CF Coppel HS Tex If Jack wants to see big gains fast going with these guys could do it with the 1st five picks. Number 6 Jacob Morris could be a future star if given the time to develop. The other 5 could all be up in the majors within 2-3 years Crow and Ortiz could be there by years end. |
| 21. By: rotoenquire on 12-27-2008 22:07:20 I like A. White in the #2 as well, but from what I have read is most people are slipping Crow because of his asking price and I think the M's should do what Det and T.B. have done. Pay for the prospect with best talent period,... |
| 22. By: slick on 12-27-2008 22:28:03 Tanner Scheppers ks per 9= 13.9 Strasburg Ks per 9= 12.3 Both pitching in the WAC VS similar competition. If Scheppers is available at 22 it could be a steal. Shoulder injury late made him slide to 49 last year, could have been late first rounder. A shortstop conversion after Freshman season interesting high risk high reward player. |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-27-2008 23:13:42 Ummm... are you forgetting that the shoulder injury is THE worst for a pitcher? I wouldn't take Scheppers early in any draft unless my medical people gave me a 100 percent go-ahead, and without exploratory surgery by those specific doctors, they can't give such a reco. He didn't slip for no reason. And that reason hasn't gone away. |
| 24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-27-2008 23:14:48 jgstecker, Yer right, the Type Bs, too. And for those who like the draft comp system idea, wake up. It's HELPED the big market clubs. |
| 25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2008 00:06:53 The Type Bs, by the way, are: Brandon Lyon, Paul Byrd, Mark Grudzielanek, Jon Garland, Brian Shouse, Dennys Reyes and Milton Bradley. This does add eight more potential slots down the list to the M's second rounder. But the Mariners ARE locked into 2 and 34, and their 27th or 28th (like josh mentioned above) pick is only dependent on the Josh Fields situation. There are also some backroom rumors going around that the Nats are really ticked off at Boras for using them in the Teixeira negotiations. Apparently they were serious and Boras made them feel like they had a shot. This could all be about them telling their fans they really wanted Teixeira so they don't believe it was just a front, but... If it's true, it could affect the club;s willingness to pay Strasburg. |
| 26. By: NEOregonMarinersFan on 12-28-2008 10:22:07 Has there been any talk about what the asking price would be for Strasburg? Will it be something like $10 million or even more than that? I have to think that if Strasburg does go to #2, the Mariners go ahead and pay the asking price. A power hitter would be nice, but I still like to think the Mariners wouldn't take a pass on Strasburg if he is available to them. |
| 27. By: jgstecker on 12-28-2008 12:04:57 The supplemental draft order is determined by elias ranking, not by team record. Raul doesn't net the Mariners the 34th pick. Currently they would get the 41st pick as their supplemental. Below is the current draft order, assuming none of the eligible free agents re-sign and assuming Fields does not sign with Seattle: 1 WAS 2 SEA 3 SD 4 PIT 5 BAL 6 SF 7 ATL 8 CIN 9 DET 10 WAS (2008 Compensation) 11 COL 12 KC 13 OAK 14 TEX 15 CLE 16 ARI 17 LAD 18 FLA 19 STL 20 TOR 21 SEA 2008 Compensation 22 HOU 23 MIN 24 CWS 25 LAA from NYM for Rodgriguez 26 LAA from NYY for Teixeira 27 MIL 28 SEA from PHI for Ibanez 29 NYY 2008 Compensation 30 BOS 31 TB 32 CHC 33 LAA 34 LAA Teixeira A 98.889 35 MIL Sabathia A 98.110 36 LAD M. Ramirez A 93.438 37 TOR Burnett A 89.729 38 LAA F. Rodriguez A 87.196 39 COL Fuentes A 86.694 40 CWS Cabrera A 86.000 41 SEA Ibanez A 83.684 42 ARI Hudson A 79.911 43 MIL Sheets A 79.038 44 NYM Perez A 78.694 45 ARI Cruz A 76.627 46 BOS Varitek A 76.037 47 LAD Lowe A 75.430 48 TEX Bradley B 70.909 49 PIT 2008 Compensation 50 LAA Garland B 66.473 51 MIL Shouse B 65.451 52 BOS Byrd B 64.922 53 ARI Lyon B 63.729 54 CIN Affeldt B 63.000 55 KC Grudzielanek B 62.733 56 MIN Reyes B 57.480 57 WAS 58 SEA That gives Seattle the #2, #21, #28, #41, and #58 picks. A couple of those guys could still re-sign with their old clubs (Manny, Varitek, Perez, Reyes, etc.) which could shift the Mariners last two picks up a little. There's also the off chance Seattle sacrifices #58 to add a guy like Hudson, O. Cabrera, Sheets, or Juan Cruz. Also worth noting: the Angels currently are slated 25, 26, 33, 34, 38, & 50. That's a ton of picks, though they may cough up their #33 to sign Fuentes. At least Seattle has the advantage of picking twice before LA gets on the board. |
| 28. By: jakehamlin33 on 12-28-2008 12:28:51 Jason, I know that it's off topic but are the mariners pursuing another bat? For example, Milton Bradley, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell or Ken Griffey Jr? I think we can all agree that there offense is in desperate need of another bat just to be respectable. |
| 29. By: Jerry on 12-28-2008 13:10:38 Speculating about who the M's will take in the draft at this point is pretty much a waste of time. Even with the #2 pick, a lot could change. There are a bunch of guys - Purke, Green, Ackley, White, Maztek, and Crow - who have a shot at establishing themselves as the #2 guy. Hell, even Strasburg's stock could take a dip with a mediocre season. And then you have guys like Donovan Tate, Keyvius Sampson, Shelby Miller, Kentrail Davis, and a ton of prep players who could shoot up the draft boards. Right now, there isn't really a consensus #2 prospect. That will very likely change. Speculating about the latter picks is even more silly. Even on draft day it is nearly impossible to know who will be available at picks in the latter part of the first round and into the supplemental round. At this point, neither the teams nor sites like Baseball America really have a good idea about how guys rank. There is so much that will change, prognosticating where guys will go is basically voodoo. Even right before the draft - when we do have a better idea of how players rank - there will still be suprises. Nobody would have guessed that Justin Smoak would have dropped to the 11th pick, Christian Friedrich would be available at #25, or that Tim Melville would have been signable in the 4th round. Add to that uncertainty Jack Z's tendency to take suprise picks, and how little we know about how much the M's new front office will be willing to go over slot, and it is pretty much impossible to create a realistic mock draft. I like to look at rankings and see what types of players might be available at the M's various picks. But making guesses about specific players - particularly after the #2 overall pick - is kinda a waste of time. |
| 30. By: Slack on 12-28-2008 13:58:08 Even if Jack Z has a tendency to make surprise picks, he isn't going to be the one making the picks on draft day is he? Won't that be McNamara's job? |
| 31. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-28-2008 13:58:34 Jason, is there a team NOT pissed off at Scott Boras? The guy gets my vote for most-disliked in baseball circles, hands down. But, another factor to consider is that Boras is also the agent for a number of guys slotted to go very high. Whatever the Nats want to do, they'll likely not be able to avoid Boras. |
| 32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2008 14:25:51 Slack, If you think a former Scouting Director-turned GM isn't going to be just as heavily involved in the draft process as he ever was on draft day, I guess you haven't been paying close enough attention. The Scouting Director isn't always the end-call on draft day, and that's not going to be the case in Seattle with Zduriencik here. Jack probably isn't going to see a ton of players, so he won't be able to make the final call in every situation, but you can bet he'll see enough of the top talents to do so in the first round. |
| 33. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2008 14:26:52 jake, None of those bats are being pursued heavily by the Mariners, nor should they be. |
| 34. By: mykillmagnum on 12-28-2008 16:41:50 jason, i know this is a bit of the subject, but with the giants signing randy johnson this weekend, do you think the mariners should go after jonathon sanchez for adrian beltre? i know there has been those rumors out there, but does that deal make sense for the mariners? |
| 35. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2008 16:51:05 Is getting Sanchez better than getting two draft picks? I'd say no. |
| 36. By: slick on 12-28-2008 17:05:08 Supp first round goes by worst record. The link below is from Baseball America it shows the draft order to 2009 to date. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/267360.html |
| 37. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2008 17:12:50 Just for fun, here are the second, 21st, 28th and 41st ranked players, according to Baseball America, for the upcoming draft --- thanks to jgstecker for posting the updated draft order. 2. Alex White, RHP 21. Blake Smith, OF/RHP 28. Tanner Scheppers, RHP 41. Chad Thomspon, RHP Here are the players taken in those slots in previous seasons. No. 2 overall 2008 - Pedro Alvarez, 3B 2007 - Mike Moustakas, 3B 2006 - Greg Reynolds, RHP (signability pick) 2005 - Alex Gordon, 3B No. 21 08 - Ryan Perry, RHP 07 - JP Arencibia, C (SF took Tim Alderson at 22) 06 - Ian Kennedy, RHP 05 - Cliff Pennington, SS No. 28 08 - Gerrit Cole, RHP 07 - Ben Revere, CF 06 - Daniel Bard, RHP 05 - Colby Rasmus, CF No. 41 08 - Ryan Flaherty, SS 07 - Sean Doolittle, OF 06 - Joba Chamberlain, RHP 05 - Beau Jones, LHP |
| 38. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-28-2008 17:14:22 Let's clear this up... The team picks that exchange hands go by elias ratings. The supplemental picks go by reverse team record. |
| 39. By: jgstecker on 12-28-2008 17:54:18 Ah yes, I see where was wrong. That would give us this revised draft order: 1 WAS 2 SEA 3 SD 4 PIT 5 BAL 6 SF 7 ATL 8 CIN 9 DET 10 WAS 2008 Compensation 11 COL 12 KC 13 OAK 14 TEX 15 CLE 16 ARI 17 LAD 18 FLA 19 STL 20 TOR 21 SEA 2008 Compensation 22 HOU 23 MIN 24 CWS 25 LAA from NYM for Rodgriguez 26 LAA from NYY for Teixeira 27 MIL 28 SEA from PHI for Ibanez 29 NYY 2008 Compensation 30 BOS 31 TB 32 CHC 33 LAA 34 SEA Ibanez A 83.684 35 COL Fuentes A 86.694 36 ARI Hudson A 79.911 37 LAD M. Ramirez A 93.438 38 TOR Burnett A 89.729 39 CWS Cabrera A 86.000 40 NYM Perez A 78.694 41 MIL Sabathia A 98.110 42 BOS Varitek A 76.037 43 LAA Teixeira A 98.889 44 ARI Cruz A 76.627 45 LAD Lowe A 75.430 46 MIL Sheets A 79.038 47 LAA F. Rodriguez A 87.196 48 CIN Affeldt B 63.000 49 PIT 2008 Compensation 50 KC Grudzielanek B 62.733 51 TEX Bradley B 70.909 52 ARI Lyon B 63.729 53 MIN Reyes B 57.480 54 MIL Shouse B 65.451 55 BOS Byrd B 64.922 56 LAA Garland B 66.473 57 WAS 58 SEA So, as it stands, we'd end up with 2, 21, 28, 34, and 58. With #58 likely being bumped up a few slots when all is said and done. |
| 40. By: Edman on 12-29-2008 22:34:23 Some of you are making a BIG assumption that the M's won't sign Fields. I don't mind those who want to speculate. But, I do mind those who make statements about how the M's WILL pass on Fields. I'm not so sure there are better players to be picked in this year's draft, than we'd get if we signed Fields. Boras is a smart man.....sometimes. And, if he's smart, he'll get Fields signed. IMHO, few teams will find Fields a good gamble in the first round, unless he pitches lights out in the Indy league. Boras already screwed up Matt Harrington's career with that move, and he's likely learned to strike when the iron is hot. Personally, I don't care one way or the other. Seattle needs a closer, and Fields could fill that role. The M's are clearly in the driver's seat. Fields had better hope he's as good as he thinks. He's concerned about $500K? Take the money.....shut up, and make your killing later one. One thing for sure, if you aren't IN the majors, you'll never have a chance for the big money. What would be the best bit of irony, would be if the M's took the draft pick, then redrafted Fields in the third round. Now that would be a win for the M's. But, I've been watching baseball long enough to never be shocked by some GM making a bad decision, and drafting Fields again in the first round. |
| 41. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-30-2008 02:21:49 Edman, Nobody is so sure of that, but if you had to bet, you really have to admit that the better bet is that Jack passes on Fields at the $2 mil asking price, and even a meet-in-the-middle $1.75 or so, so he and his scouts can make the pick. It's a bonus to be given that opportunity. Imagine if Jack was given the chance to take back the Bedard deal. Same idea with the Fields pick, even if with a different dynamic. BTW, Ed, teams can't redraft a player without the player's consent. So Fields wouldn't likely okay such a scenario unless he had a pre-draft contract worked out with them. |
| 42. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-30-2008 16:21:45 I've said it before and I'll say it again....at pick #21, I count at least four players I'd prefer to have in the system over Fields (and that are likely going to be available there, barring some weird reaches of inexact science). The simple truth of the matter is that Fields can be had later than #21. He wasn't a true #21-worthy talent in the first-place, but it was a weak draft. What Jason said is true- Fields would have to give permission to us for us to draft him again. |
| 43. By: Edman on 12-30-2008 17:10:13 Thanks Jason, I wasn't aware of the twist that prevents teams from redrafting. And no, I don't expect JZ to pay out $500K above slot money. But, I would hope that Fields is smart enough to realize he will likely drop to lower rounds next year. Having not played any ball after the college season hurts him. Like I said, he better have a stellar performance in the Indy league. JZ is really in the driver's seat. If Fields is stellar in the Indy league, he still has a chance to sign him before next year's draft. So, there is nothing for him to lose if he waits. Fields has to play in the Indy league, because nobody's gonna risk a first round pick on someone who hasn't played organized ball in almost a year. rocketdawg, I'm glad your crystal ball has all that figured out. Trust me, the draft slotting will change dramatically from pre-season expectations today and will not match pre-draft slots. And to think you, or anyone else has figured out the first twenty one players who will be drafted, just isn't realistic at all. So, to say you'd take that draft pick, is premature.....to say the least. If a bunch of kids don't pan out, then Fields could be a better player than we'd get with the 22nd pick. Likewise, it could turn out to be a stronger draft than anticipated. But, JZ would be a fool to do anything quickly in regard to Fields. Josh screwed himself, with Boras' help. Now, his future depends on how he performs in the Indy league. And, the odds are against him ending up a first round pick again. He may very well be sorry he didn't take the slot money Seattle offered. And frankly, anyone that stupid, I don't want in a Seattle uniform. |
| 44. By: Edman on 12-30-2008 17:16:55 Sorry.....I went one slot too far....should have been the 21st pick. |
| 45. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-30-2008 18:31:04 Edman, you're so right regarding the draft slotting. Believe me, I'm a realist...and it's not a crystal ball I'm operating with- these guys can jump all over the board, everybody knows that. I'm just saying I know whom I prefer to place my bets on as players that will work out (regardless of slot, really). I wasn't a fan of the Fields pick, wanted Tim Melville- was surprised to see Melville go down as much as he did. But, for all I know, Fields is the guy- once he decides to play for somebody- that'll make people go "Mariano who?". Bottom line, I'm not saying I know any more than you or anyone else- because nobody truly knows anything. I just know who I'd be happy to see the Mariners pick. |
| 46. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-30-2008 18:33:42 And oh yeah...I agree with your saying that Zduriencik would be foolish to do anything quickly regarding Fields. |
| 47. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-30-2008 18:39:18 I'd be happy seeing the Mariners pick Strasburg. I know that much. He should ask the Nationals for $50 mil. Why anyone would prefer to play in Washington with that ownership and management over Seattle is beyond me. Especially for Strasburg, who is a west coast guy. |
| 48. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-30-2008 18:57:27 I agree, Jason....Strasburg in a Mariners uniform is among my happiest wishes right now. I'm sold on the guy....and he should ask for WHATEVER he thinks he should get, because now the Nats are under the gun in every way possible...losing Crow last year was a mother of a black eye for their organization. Whoever they pick, they've got to sign...or the fans will start to stay away in droves. And in the unlikely event that the Nationals decline to draft Strasburg and instead go with someone else, we should set a new speed record for index-card reaching the podium. |
| 49. By: Jerry on 01-02-2009 13:40:10 Edman, The main issue I have with Fields is that he doesn't make sense for the M's. You are correct that he might slot at 20 or even higher based on his talent and polish. In fact, I saw him ranked at above 20 by a few authorities. Baseball America ranked him the 17th best prospect. However, a huge part of his value is tied to his polish and ability to pitch in the big leagues right away. Thus, he inherently has much more value to teams who are looking to win right now. His value is also tied to his ability to close games in short order. Most smart baseball teams don't pay big money for relievers, because they are easy to develop. You don't need to spend top picks on them. Our entire bullpen last year is a testament that fact: the only high pick in our pen was Morrow (who shouldn't have been there in the first place). The M's have been particularly good at finding good relievers for little or nothing. Guys like Putz, Sherrill, Green, Jimenez, Corcoran, Rowland-Smith, Rhodes, and Lowe are all great examples of how you can build a cheap and effective pen through low-round draft picks, freely available talent, and value free agent picks. The M's have guys like Justin Thomas, Stephen Kahn, Mumba Rivera, Shawn Kelley, Marwin Vega, Ricky Orta, Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Justin Souza, Kyle Parker, Jose Lugo, and Luke Burnett (who was a great pick in the last draft) coming through the pipe. Lugo, Thomas, Kelley, and Parker could help the M's this year. Fontaine was great at finding good arms in the late rounds, and developing them into useful relievers. Given the M's current status as a rebuilding club, plus their proven ability to build a pen on the cheap, blowing a first round pick on a closer makes little sense. Sure, Fields could help them now. But a guy who could be a starting pitcher or everyday contributor is far more valuable to them. They need cornerstones, not bullpen guys. Fields has much more value to a club that is contending now and next year. That's not the M's. The club has the luxury to be patient. They need impact talent, not relievers. That is why their selection of him last year was so strange. It showed that the club didn't really understand where they were as an organization. I would offer Fields $1 million to sign. He was a college senior last year, and has zero leverage. Him asking for an above-slot bonus is just bullshit. Guys like him should be signability picks. If he doesn't take the cash, use the pick next year. The M's have all the leverage in this situation, and it is probably in their best interest to let Fields walk anyhow. He has already torpedoed half his value in not signing quickly. Why overpay for that? Let the new guys use that pick on someone who could be a long-term cornerstone player. |
| 50. By: Edman on 01-03-2009 19:40:44 OK, Jerry, I'll play. First....first round draft picks are rarely picked because they'll be ready for immediate service. And, I doubt that Fields was picked for that reason. I happen to believe the M's knew, by the time the draft rolled around, that they're was little hope to save the season. So, picking Fields for a playoff run, just wasn't likely. The idea that you have to pick players based on WHEN you'll be ready to compete, is the stuff of internet folklore. You pick the best player possible. Obviously, if a draft pick can help you right away, it's a bonus. But, where is it written that a pick must be a longer term investment? Does that somehow add more value? Let's play further. If your contention is that the M's team won't be ready to compete for at least two years, why can't Fields be part of that growth? He can't work in the majors, so that by the time they are competing, he's got his polish as a closer? Because he's more ready than some, doesn't mean any club, contending or not, should shy away from drafting him. In fact, from a value stream concept, he requires less money to develop him, does he not? Isn't that a consideration to drafting someone? If they do see him as their future closer, then sign him and get him to the bigs as soon as possible. And please...big money? If the M's paid him what he's asking, providing he's ready to pitch in the majors, he's a BARGIN. He's asking for $2 Million. That's far less than many of the established closers are getting. So the idea that they would be overpaying him is another internet myth. They'd be overpaying him for the draft slot he was picked in.....but not as a reliever. And yet another please. Lets get over this myth that Seattle has some kind of brillance in regard to harvesting cheap relievers. LUCK is far more involved than some misconception that they are any more brilliant than other teams. To venture down the highway of a mythical belief that you can consistantly develop a cheap bullpen, is what leads to bad decisions, based purely on faith. I prefer to plan around faith....not for it. Do yourself a favor and get past the Morrow-Fields "you don't draft relievers in the upper rounds" myth. You draft the best ability, regardless of position. You don't lose points if a closer comes out of the first round. And, you don't gain them if you manage to pull one out of the lower rounds. I've been watching baseball for many years. There hasn't EVER been a team, sans maybe the 1960's Dodgers, that had too much pitching. You have too much, you can trade it for something you need. Right now, the M's have a CRAP bullpen. When you're talking about Corcoran being your closer....or Batista.....it's crap. Why not invest in a guy like Fields who has a chance to be here when they're ready to compete....rather than doing what the Mets did, and spending money for KRod? And.....please yet again. Offering Fields $500K less than slot money? I'm all for not paying him the $2 Million he's asking for. But, insulting him because YOU don't believe he was a good pick, isn't rational. I don't expect JZ to rush to anything. Fields has backed himself into a corner. JZ and sit on the slot money offer and simply wait. There was a rush to sign him initially, to get his minor league career started. Now, there is no advantage to signing him until just before the draft. He'll go to the Indy league and hope he can show he's a first round pick. If he's wrong, JZ can offer him less, knowing he'll likely drop to lower rounds. If he is brilliant, then it's a matter of negotiation. Either way, Seattle wins. I just don't buy into the idea that having the pick is more valuable than having Fields, at this point. If the draft is stronger than anticipated, maybe so. If it's weaker, maybe not. But no definitive answer will come anytime soon. I just hope Boras doesn't screw this kid's career up playing games. |
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