Prospect Insider - PI Reader Poll: Wins

PI Reader Poll: Wins

By Jason A. Churchill

By 12-12-2010

More than 700 votes says M's fans believe the 2011 Seattle Mariners would win between 70-75 games if the season started today. It's my belief that 70-75 is optimistic, considering the Nos. 2-5 starters would be Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Erik Bedard and Michael Pineda right now, but it wouldn't take a ton to give them 8-10 more victories than a year ago, maybe more, and perhaps they are there already now.

62 or fewer: 43 votes
63-69: 127
70-75: 367
76-80: 172
81-85: 37
86 or more: 27

pi-reader-poll:-wins

Comments
The following 60 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: chrisisasavage on 12-12-2010 21:13:19
So far the poll is saying 74 wins or so.

2. By: marinerseric on 12-12-2010 21:21:46
I voted for 63-69. Even that right now is plenty hard to get to.

3. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-12-2010 21:46:34
I was 76-80. I'm very very optimistic!

4. By: micahjr on 12-13-2010 00:39:16
Don't think I'd use Zoomerang again. The poll is busting out of it's box and not resized, and the percentages are shown as the number of people who've voted a certain way. Subpar, I would say.

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-13-2010 11:13:32
micah,

The %s were off for everyone -- but the box is only 400-600. So it's you on your 2004 monitor.

6. By: Mackie on 12-13-2010 13:38:44
Thanks for the fun post!

This would be a good poll to do again around February 1 and then again at the end of Spring Training. I think it would be fun to compare the results based on what moves are made between now and then. And while I have no evidence to support it, I believe there will be a number of moves made between now and the beginning of the season!

As the team is now, I am not sure how they can rise in the standings. But I can see the win totals going up to the 70-75 range... the Mariners will be better, but I think they probably won't be "better enough" to get out of last place in the AL West.

I think if the M's could add another bat or two (like maybe a couple more stopgap players that wouldn't cost much in terms of salary or prospects and could be somewhat impactful on offense) AND add a decent SP to the rotation, I would think the win total ought to be more like 75-80. Maybe that would be enough to get them actually challenging for third place. That would be fun.

Meanwhile, all these prospects we like to keep track of will be developing in the minors, and for me that is almost as fun as following the big-league ballclub!

7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-13-2010 14:05:20
We'll do that, Mackie. And for Micah's sake, we'll try a different poll server.

8. By: slamcactus on 12-13-2010 15:12:48
"I voted for 63-69. Even that right now is plenty hard to get to."

The Ms had almost everything go wrong last year offensively. I'd be shocked if their win total is that low again. The team won't get another .609 OPS from DH and .651 OPS from 1B, and Miguel Olivo, for all the talk of him being a bad fit for Safeco, shouldn't have a problem posting a significant improvement on the .566 OPS the team got from the catcher position.

The offense isn't fixed, but it should be a damn sight better than it was in 2010. The defense should be much better too, with Figgins moving back to his natural position and Ryan coming in.

I voted 70-74, but with a couple more small improvements the team should be able to get into the 76-80 range.

9. By: Rick Randall on 12-13-2010 15:46:06
You are right, slamcactus.

If I ever finish this post I'm working on, we'll have some numbers that show just how much better we can expect the offense to be as the roster exists right now. Should open some eyes.

10. By: Rudolf on 12-13-2010 15:48:38
I understand there are several metrics in use that predict wins and runs and such, and that the M's were somewhat of a fluke disappointment last season...

But if Smoak, Figgins and Gutierrez don't rebound substantially this team is looking like a siphon offense yet again. Only this time there is no Cliff Lee, and Vargas and Fister may struggle to reproduce last year's successes.

It wouldn't surprise me-- even a little bit-- to see this team spastically swirl to the bottom of the AL standings with over 100 losses again. I cannot fathom how we're better than anyone, with perhaps the exceptions of Cleveland and Baltimore. They suck, too.

I just want to see some good games, some Felix, and hopefully some development out of Smoak, Saunders and Ackley. Anything else is gravy. Expectations are low.

11. By: banton on 12-13-2010 16:32:11
I just read on MLBTR the following:

"There are still rumblings about a third team, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). The mystery team's offer appears to be significantly lower than the Yankees' proposal, but it's from a place Lee "loves."

Let's see, Lee spent time in Cleveland (that's not it, I guarantee it) and Philly. And Seattle. I could see us making a lower offer. Maybe Cliff wants to come back to Wedge.

Stranger things have happened with JZ.............

12. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-13-2010 17:05:17

I voted 70-74, too...hinging on the twofold notions that we couldn't be that bad offensively again if we tried, and Jack Zduriencik isn't anywhere near done re-shaping the 2011 roster.

I don't believe for one minute Jack's standing pat with this hand. Something will be brewing, eventually.

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-13-2010 17:29:53
The mystery team IS the Phillies, I can guarantee that.

he wanted to re-sign there 13 months ago, but Philly was so quick to judge when he wanted way more than they were willing to spend at the time that they dealt him, instead.

I still think it's NYY or Texas, however.

14. By: slamcactus on 12-13-2010 17:51:15
"But if Smoak, Figgins and Gutierrez don't rebound substantially this team is looking like a siphon offense yet again. "

First of all, there's a really good chance that they improve as a group. Keep in mind, Ichiro had a year on par with his career lows, too, and could be in line for significant improvement.

But even if those guys are exactly what they were last year, the bar for improvement on last year is so low that the offense should be significantly better. Jack Cust is the DH this year. Last year, Mariners' DH's had a .609 OPS. Cust should be about a 25-run improvement by himself if he just repeats last year. Olivo steps into the C position, where the Ms got a .566 OPS last year. Even a significantly regressed Olivo should be at least a 10-15 run improvement. And Smoak, even the 2010 version, was a significant upgrade over Kotchman offensively, to the tune of about 5 runs. He'll almost certainly improve, but even if he doesn't a full season of Smoak's 2010 numbers is better than what the team got least year.

The offense isn't fixed, like I said above. But it's going to be better than last year, because it pretty much doesn't get any worse than what happened in 2010.

15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-13-2010 18:03:22
This whole "it can't get worse" mantra sounds eerily familiar to 2008. They did rebound, and found a way to win in the mid 80s.

But then they... debounded?

16. By: rjfrik on 12-13-2010 18:47:15
Debounded. Lol. I love it Jason

17. By: slamcactus on 12-13-2010 18:51:43
The 2008 team was really poorly constructed, but its offense was nowhere near the exercise in futility that the '10 team was.

I don't remember people making the same argument post-2008. The meme that offseason was "there's finally a new sheriff in town who understands how to build a baseball team," not "last year's team was so bad that it's going to be virtually impossible not to improve."

18. By: Lailoken on 12-13-2010 18:54:09
The percentages:

62 or fewer: 43 votes (5.6%)
63-69: 127 (16.4%)
70-75: 367 (47.5%)
76-80: 172 (22.3%)
81-85: 37 (4.8%)
86 or more: 27 (3.5%)

19. By: FWBrodie on 12-13-2010 19:05:15
#9/Rick, can't wait to read that one. Do you have a guess when it'll be done?

20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-13-2010 19:17:47
slam,

There are threads here at PI from Sept. and Oct. 2008 that have comments that say over and over how hopeless it seems and how unbelievably terrible the ballclub is...

The one difference is that everyone knew a new GM was coming in, a new manager was coming...

21. By: jv075 on 12-13-2010 22:14:06
Any thoughts or rumblings of M's involved in any potential salary dump/swap possibilities to help accommodated the Phillies and Lee?

22. By: safecochatter on 12-13-2010 22:33:11
21...if your talking about the the reports on twitter about 8 tonight,that lee was signing with phillies. those have been found to be fakes.

23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-13-2010 22:40:38
The Philly rumors are real... the signing rumors are not. Yet.

24. By: tkballer22 on 12-13-2010 23:05:38
Lee signs...WITH PHILADELPHIA!

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/agree-to-sign-cliff-lee.html

25. By: gwangung on 12-13-2010 23:34:52
Sorry, but I just think the Lee signing is freakin' hilarious.

Carry on, folks.

26. By: d2ret on 12-13-2010 23:39:38
Hilarious? O K.. Its awsome. Get him out of the division, get him out of the AL.

PHI has the best rotation of all time now

27. By: masonb on 12-13-2010 23:52:34
It would be super awesome if Jack could trade Bradley to Philly for Blanton with the Phils maybe only sending half of the difference of the rest of his deal which I think would equate to about 2mil. Think about it, it almost makes too much sense. The Phils need a right handed platoon partner for Brown, and Bradley adds the extra benefit that he's a switch hitter, and the Mariners could use another useful arm in the rotation. Plus, you have the added benefit that Z and Amaro have done a trade before. It really makes perfect sense. It would essentially be adding 2-4million to the payroll for a position of need. Maybe Z could even use his Jedi mind powers and convince Amaro to take Bradley and Wilson for Blanton

Jason, am I really off base with this?

28. By: gwangung on 12-14-2010 00:03:12
"Hilarious? O K.. Its awsome."

I'd go with that, too.

29. By: d2ret on 12-14-2010 00:08:24
Mason are you really that excited about the prospects of adding Joe Blanton?

30. By: d2ret on 12-14-2010 00:10:34
..Or maybe just getting rid of Bradley. I get that part

31. By: d2ret on 12-14-2010 00:21:40
Another thought. Now we begin to watch Smoak haunt the Rangers in the division for the next 6-10 years. I always thought they were eventually going to hate themselves for ever making the trade. I give em a lot of credit for making it all the way to the series, but this ones gonna hurt for some time.

I STILL cant believe we got him by the way. This is Jacks best trade by far

32. By: Rick Randall on 12-14-2010 00:30:07
2 fantastic months of Lee, whatever you want to call August, Mark Lowe.

And, oh yeah, a trip to the World Series - the first in team history.

I agree M's made out like bandits, but if the shoe were on the other foot, wouldn't you have wanted YOUR team to go for it?

33. By: Rick Randall on 12-14-2010 00:36:10
Almnost forgot...

And the 33rd pick and a comp pick in the 2011 draft.

34. By: 11records on 12-14-2010 00:36:26
JAC - Doesn't Bradley have a valuable role on a team with both Michael Saunders and Jack Cust? Milton has a history of hitting lefties very effectively. Saunders and Cust?? Not so much. Last year Cust had an 880/638 OPS platoon split. For his career, 867/722. Saunders has much smaller sample sizes, but a horrific 547 OPS for his career vs lefties.

Bradley had an atrocious year last year, and still had a 705 OPS vs. lefties. For his career, he's at 870.

If the M's face LH starting pitching in like 50 games, can't he take 20 - 25 starts from Cust and 25 - 30 from Saunders?? There's absolutely no reason for BOTH Cust AND Saunders to start any game vs a lefty.

I guess the question is whether Bradley can regain his ability to turn on a fastball. Last year I saw him swing through 3 straight Joe Saunders fastballs. It was pretty f'n embarrassing. If it was the knee injury and he rebounds, I think he could pay some dividends.

Curious what your take on it is...

35. By: jv075 on 12-14-2010 00:53:36
I don't think that the Yankees would even answer the M's call right now but wondering your thoughts on Montero for Pineda?

36. By: d2ret on 12-14-2010 00:59:40
Re:32,33

Your point is well taken Rick, but I never saw them as a Cliff Lee away from being a legit contender to win everything, given the way the rest of the rotation rounded out. The fact that they did reach the World Series surprised me, and that IS absolutely awsome for a franchise that never made it there before.

However, with the compensation picks in a deep draft, and a very close chance at resigning Lee this offseason (although failed), I can see there is nothing wrong with the deal they made.

I still say Smoak haunts them for the better part of the next decade though. This might be one of those rare cases where it doesnt matter, and there is no wrong answer.

37. By: Madison Mariner on 12-14-2010 01:00:58
"Mason are you really that excited about the prospects of adding Joe Blanton?"

I'm not Mason, obviously, but the pros of acquiring him are that he's an innings-eater(below average, though), and he's pitched in the AL West before.

The cons? He's expensive, and he's known more for eating food than innings. He's not nicknamed 'Cupcakes' for nothing. ;)

And yes, that Phillies' rotation is insane. I've already heard rumors to the effect that the Phillies might shop Oswalt instead of Blanton. I know Oswalt makes too much for the M's to consider, unless the Phillies took back someone like Chone Figgins in return(and then we'd have to find a 3B anyway, and they have Polanco anyway.)

38. By: micahjr on 12-14-2010 01:27:18
In my computer's defense, it's a 2009 ASUS laptop, running 1366 x 768 resolution with Google Chrome as the browser.

I was just trying to be helpful. I thought that if it looked awful for me, it might for other people too.

39. By: masonb on 12-14-2010 08:50:20
I didn't say I was excited, but this is probably one of the best chances at turning Bradley into something useful. I just don't see Bradley being an effective player for this team. Sure, I would love to see him net more in a trade, but chances are, if he is traded it's something like a Blanton-Bradley trade, and this team could use another innings eater. Blanton isn't going to set the world on fire, but since Bradley is already a sunk cost, you could basically get Blanton for nothing or add an extra million or two to the payroll.

40. By: baseballfan on 12-14-2010 09:03:59
Why would the Philles take Bradley? Their reason for trading Blanton is to shed salary, so their not taking back any significant salary or that defeats the purpose.

41. By: baseballfan on 12-14-2010 09:09:08
I think the Mariners should let it be known that their willing to listen on Felix, it might be heresy but with teams desperate, I think you at least have to listen - an
incredible haul could vastly quicken the pace of Mariners rebuild.

42. By: Galway on 12-14-2010 09:29:04
If Felix was 30 I'd agree to shop around but at his age I do not think you can get fair value for him. He's young enough and you have enough young pieces and cash you build around him as your cornerstone. He is such a rare commodity. I agree listen but you have to be cautious to not give tthe player the vibe he is being shopped. It will be hard enough to keep him patient with organization as it plays catch up to his development and maybe becomes competitive before he gets disenchanted. Felix may be one of the rare stars that is actually underrated a bit because of his support staff.

43. By: masonb on 12-14-2010 09:39:33
baseballfan,

The Phillies could look into Bradley because they are looking for another outfielder to platoon with Brown and sure if they could get rid of Blanton, and address a need, and save a few million bucks, it could be beneficial to them. Of course, this is all moot because I'm not pulling the strings. I simply said that I thought it was a deal that made sense to both sides, and it does.

44. By: Mackie on 12-14-2010 10:16:25
It does seem the Phillies would have an odd man out in their rotation picture. Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick ought to be fighting it out for that, but from what I read the Phillies are tendering a contract to Kendrick and actively shopping Blanton, so they have already made their decision.

Blanton might be a guy who could eat some innings, but would be really be a much better pitcher than someone we already have, like Luke French or David Pauley, who are both lots less expensive? Also, Blantons IP totals from 2007 to 2010 have been declining, from 230 to 197.2 to 195.1 to 175.2...

I'm still hoping the Mariners are looking for some help for the rotation. And if they get someone, I hope it is someone better than Blanton.

45. By: Jerry on 12-14-2010 11:18:07
I voted 70-75.

I think the team will probably be towards the lower end of that range.

I agree with Slamcactus that last years club suffered through some absolutely terrible luck. Even when everyone had such rosy predictions about how good the M's would be, this was a club with a large degree of potential variation in terms of production. There were a lot of ifs on the 2010 club.

Although the 2010 team's production was basically a perfect storm of shittiness, I think that the 2011 club has even more of an extreme range of possible outcomes.

Slamcactus mentioned that the M's aren't likely to get such a high level of suck from C, DH, and 1B. However, we will have a lot of guys with huge question marks, and lots of young players being transitioned into the roster.

I think that Ichiro and Felix are the only players on the club that you can safely put money on. Beyond that, we have guys coming off terrible seasons (Gutierrez, Bradley, Figgins, Ryan, and Wilson), guys who are young and have potential to bust (Saunders, Smoak, Cortes, and Moore), and some prospects who will be getting their first ML experience (Ackley, Pineda, Lueke). Basically, you have two veteran players who are likely to be good, and a ton of question marks.

And while the defense and offense are likely to see a bit of a rebound in terms of production, Vargas, Fister and Pauly are good candidates for regression. Plus we are losing a half season of Cliff Lee awesomeness.

Basically, I think this club has a HUGE range of potential outcomes. Slamcactus is right that, with a bit of good luck, this team could approach .500. But there is also a very real chance that we end up with a top-3 draft pick again in 2012.

46. By: slamcactus on 12-14-2010 11:43:26
"There are threads here at PI from Sept. and Oct. 2008 that have comments that say over and over how hopeless it seems and how unbelievably terrible the ballclub is..."

That's a very different comment from the one I was making. My comment wasn't "woe is us, the hole's too deep to dig out of," it was "that kind of abysmal offensive performance is a once in a generation thing that almost certainly won't repeat itself." The former is similar to the post-2008 sentiment you're referencing, while mine has undertones of hope.

For my part, I think Ichiro will improve on 2010, Gutierrez and Figgins will bounce back a little bit, Smoak will be decent (as will Ackley when he gets the call), and the new guys they've brought in will be ~average. Oh, and the team shouldn't have to hand nearly 400 PAs to Josh F'n Wilson. If those things happen and the pitching holds serve (obviously minus Lee, but also minus the -1.6 WAR from RRS), this team could easily get into the 76-80 territory, with potential for a .500 or better season with real breakouts from one or two of Saunders/Ackley/Smoak/Pineda.

47. By: shortstop9 on 12-14-2010 12:34:32
WOW trading Felix? The Yankees are going to be desperate for sure.I would listen-What if they offered Hughes,Chamberlain,Nunez,Montero,& Granderson for Felix and Franklin.Just asking so don't get all mad everyone.

48. By: Rick Randall on 12-14-2010 12:49:52
Chamberlain, Nunez, Granderson...blah.

49. By: shortstop9 on 12-14-2010 12:58:43
Nunez is a real prospect at short.I think if Chamberlain got out of NY he may be a decent starter.

50. By: Shawnuel on 12-14-2010 13:01:49
Start with Montero, Hughes and Betances and I'd listen.....before dealing to Texas for a better package!

51. By: acqb1424 on 12-14-2010 13:03:51
That's a terrible trade idea. You'd trade Felix for a future DH (Montero) and relief pitcher, one good starter, an outfielder that can't really hit lefties and a decent shortstop prospect? Yuck, no thanks. Like someone said earlier, Felix isn't 30, he's young, you don't trade him away, you build around him.

52. By: shemberry on 12-14-2010 13:29:26
Cano, Montero, Hughes, Nunez, Bettances, and I would consider it

53. By: maqman on 12-14-2010 13:38:53
When it comes to Felix just say no, not ever! Put me down for 75-80, at least some of the team will regress to the norm.

54. By: Lamda on 12-14-2010 13:56:02
I agree with 52 - not that we'd ever make the trade but to even get us to not respond with a "F'OFF' to cashman, he'd have to put Cano and Montero as the starting blocks for any discussion. I said as much to skankee fans and they all jumped saying no way Cano can be added. Typical fans - want to get good players for giving up scraps, just as most in our fanbase suggest, lol.

55. By: mazono on 12-14-2010 13:56:02
Millwood on a 1 or 2 year deal?

56. By: shortstop9 on 12-14-2010 18:59:20
Harden before the A's do.

57. By: StandinPat on 12-14-2010 19:23:13
Because Bedard alone doesn't fill our need for oft-injured high-upside pitchers?

58. By: shortstop9 on 12-14-2010 19:59:37
There isn't much else out there

59. By: Mackie on 12-14-2010 20:28:15
Felix is a franchise cornerstone kind of guy. If you trade him at all, I don't think you trade him for spare parts. I agree with Lamda, any discussion with the Yanks would have to begin with Cano, they would have to agree to add Hughes as well, and then give us a decent prospect.

I'd rather just keep Felix, of course. See how they are doing in another year or year and a half, and how he is doing by then too. This might be a discussion to have in a more serious manner down the road a ways.

For now, it's fun to think about it anyway.

60. By: Timberwolf on 12-14-2010 22:28:07
Thank You Phillies! Lee to the NL and not Texas or NYY makes my month. Both parts of the fan base in Seattle would not sit still for a Felix trade. Felix is one of the two guys casual fans relate to and many of the hard core fans would also be disgusted. It just doesn't make any sense at this time. If another team is ready to make a really stupid trade, they would do it at the trade deadline when they have a bad case of hot pants.

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