Prospect Insider - Pitcher of the Year

Pitcher of the Year

By Jason A. Churchill

By 11-20-2008

Because Phillippe Aumont missed so much time in his first professional season, the club's top pitching prospect could not be seriously considered for the pitching prospect of the year.

This opened to door for reliever Shawn Kelley to sneak in the backdoor and earn a look, and right-hander Juan Ramirez, the most advanced of the organization's best arms, was more consistent than one typically expects of a teenager.

But Michael Pineda came out of nowhere to put himself on the prospect map, and more is on the way from the 6-5 north paw, our pitching prospect of the year for this past season.

The Dominican native will turn 20 just prior to reporting to Spring Training, and his breakout 2008 campaign was a product of the slim right-hander improving greatly. It wasn't about luck, the league, the level of competition or experience level.

Pineda went 8-2 during his first two pro seasons, both spent in the Dominican Summer League, allowing 16 earned runs on 84 hits in 79 innings. He struck out 62 and walked 18 in 23 games, 15 starts.

Improving upon those numbers in a jump to affiliated baseball in the states wasn't a realistic expectation for Pineda. But that's exactly what he did.

"Usually that first year is either a feeling out year, a year to get comfortable away from home or something like that," said an American League scout whose first full-time scouting job was in Venezuela.

"The difference between the Midwest League and the (dominican) summer league these days is pretty significant. While the strikezone in more consistent here, it's still not very good for pitchers in that league, and the advantage you get with the weather is offset by the level of competition. In fact, it's more than offset, the difference is pretty big."

Pineda took that as a challenge.

"He's a competitor, and he knows how to pitch," said Jaime Navarro, the Pineda's pitching coach in Wisconsin last season. "He's very mature; When I go to the mound to talk to him, he already knows what I'm going to say, I don't even need to say anything."

Pineda finished the season with a 1.95 ERA in 138 1/3 innings of work, striking out 128 and allowing just 35 walks. His fastball sits in the 89-92 mph range and his slider and change are considered average or better.

"He attacks the strike zone with everything," said Navarro. "He works quickly, get ahead in the count and throws to both sides of the plate."

His use of the changeup and slider to both left and right-handed hitters is important, but it's his consistent arm action and willingness to throw all three of his pitches for strikes that allows Pineda to avoid the big inning.

After allowing just two home runs in nearly 80 innings in the DSL, Pineda served up just seven long balls in 138 frames in 2008. His four-seam fastball is the reason why.

"He's smart and he knows he has to keep his fastball down," Navarro added. "He stays on top of it, he stays on top of all of his pitches very well for such a young man. That keeps the barrel of the bat off the middle of the ball."

Scouts like Pineda, they aren't quite convinced he's a frontline prospect, but most believe he could turn into such an arm as he develops physically and adds to the phsyicality of his game.

"There's probably more fastball there,' said an NL scout. "I remember Curt Schilling when he was coming up. At 19, 20, he could throw 95, but he pitched at 90-91 most of the time. As he got stronger and matured his mechanics, he was regularly throwing 95."

As a prospect, Pineda now probably ranks fourth in the farm system, with the summer addition of right-hander Francisco Valdivia. But Aumont, Ramirez and Valdivia all lack what Pineda's biggest strengths are; above-average command of three pitches and the polish that comes with 10-year veterans.

Those other arms have higher ceilings, but Pineda is much more likely to max out into a No. 3 starter than his org-mates are to become the aces their raw stuff suggests.

Photo of Michael Pineda by Mike Andruski

pitcher-of-the-year

Comments
The following 28 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Pumpkin on 11-20-2008 13:10:39
Great posts thanks. I love to see consistency like that in a pitcher so young. Plus he showed seriously improvement as the year went on. His last game was 9 IP, 1 hit, 0 BB, 14 strikeouts. Now that is an awesome line. One hit away from a perfect game. How many other 19 year olds have done that. Of course you can't judge a prospect by one game, but it takes a considerable amount of talent to be able to do something like that. In his last 8 games his WHIP was 0.6 and his K/9 was almost 11. Right now I have to say Pineda is probably my favorite Mariners prospect. Just out of curiosity, who is Valdivia comparable to? About the only thing I know about him Is his name, and that he was the top Venezuelan pitching prospect signed this summer.

2. By: Jerry on 11-20-2008 13:37:00
Good article Jason. Pineda was a pleasant surprise this last season. However, the one thing that it really highlights is the lack of pitching in the farm system. We really don't have any impact pitching prospects in the upper levels of the system at all. That is pretty scary. None of those guys have experience above A-. The M's badly need an infusion of pitching in their system. Some middle infield talent wouldn't hurt either.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-20-2008 13:52:30
That's what you go for in general anyway, Jerry, advanced power arms and up-the-middle talent.

The Mariners should have taken Friedrich this past June and although Aumont has tons of upside, passing on Jason Heyward wasn't wise, IMO. Admittedly, that is a hindsight opinion, however. But it's their job to get those right, and I don't think they did.

Adding Strasburg or White next June will help their pitching depth greatly.

re: Pumpkin
I haven't seen Valdivia, so I can't give a comparison of any kind, but for a 16-year-old kid, he's advanced physically (6-3, 200 pounds already), reaches the 91-93 mph range already and has an out pitch in a sharp breaking ball.

4. By: Blowgun7 on 11-20-2008 14:02:51
Jason, can you give a quick scouting report on Kelley and what role you see for him down the road in Seattle? Also, on an unrelated note, any idea why Triunfel has missed the last 4 games in the AFL?

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-20-2008 15:20:53
Triunfel may have been shut down, he's played the equivalent of about a full season this year, but in the AFL, guys will multiple days without drawing an eyebrow.

I haven't talked to anyone down there to hear whether he got hurt at all.

6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-20-2008 16:11:33
re: Kelley
While I won't give away too much on him, he has a solid-average fastball, good command and knows how to pitch. His breaking ball is pretty good, a slider, and if he had a good change with command, he'd be starting.

7. By: km4_1999 on 11-20-2008 16:54:59
Jason, Just curious how our Minor League pitching stacks up with other teams. Obvioulsy we are thin at the top but it seems like we look good in the lower levels if that is possible? with the addition of whoever we take at #2 if it is pitching and the possibility of drafting another college arm or two in the first round how would our system stack up pitching wise?

8. By: Lailoken on 11-20-2008 20:49:45
Jason, How much more weight does Pineda project to carry on his 6'5 frame? If he can add another twenty pounds of muscle I hope he can get the gas up to 95 more often. That picture makes him look pretty slim in the upper body still.

9. By: Slack on 11-20-2008 20:54:31
Its good to see someone like Pineda step up and emerge, especially in light of losing Tillman a year ago. His polish certainly bodes well for his future. I hope to see the M's add even more pitching depth in the near future.

10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-20-2008 22:09:07
Lailoken,
It's tough to say, but I'd say by the time he's 22-23 he'll have put on 15+ pounds, but how much more exactly is impossible to tell.

If he hits the weights hard, he'll gain more weight. If he doesn't, he won't. And obviously, a lot depends on the genetics involved.

11. By: Slack on 11-21-2008 08:04:38
When can we expect to see Valdiva stateside? If he's sixteen, I would assume, not right away.

12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-21-2008 10:32:23
If he's clear visa wise, he could see time in Peoria or Pulaski, but there is always the chance that he remains behind a year.

13. By: Blowgun7 on 11-21-2008 12:29:53
Jason, I keep reading that the Mets are very interested in Putz. Would the M's deal him this winter? If so, what type of return could he pull?

14. By: Scrupio on 11-21-2008 13:09:31
Hi Jason, I was wondering if there was any concern about moving Pineda, Ramirez, and Aumont up to High Desert? Since its a place where pitchers go to die. Or is it seen as a challenge to see if they can overcome the park effects? Also, do you agree with the NL scout about Pineda being comparable to Curt Schilling or not, if not what pitcher would be?

15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-21-2008 15:33:59
Re: Blow
I was told this week by the Mets that if Putz was available, he'd be at the very top of their closer list, ahead of paying K-ROD, Fuentes, Wood...

But I was also told that the Mariners haven't opened up those talks, and may not. They don't necessarily believe they'd get full value for Putz having come off an injury-riddled season.

Scrupio,
The NL scout wasn't comparing Pineda to Schilling. Go back and read that again.

As for those young pitchers pitching High Desert, I think it's seen as a challenge for all of them, and Ramirez and Aumont have the pure stuff to get by there.

Pineda doesn't have the fastball, but he's a smart pitcher and mature beyond his years. He'd handle the adversity.

I can see Aumont and Ramirez skipping High-A, I guess, but I don't necessarily see the M's doing that. But the ultimate decision is months away and those pitchers' performance in spring training will tell the story.

16. By: slamcactus on 11-21-2008 16:31:22
Any thoughts on Greg Hunter's demotion? The player development side of things seems like it's been a bit of a mess the past few years, with only 1 Mariners farmhand having anything resembling a skill-set that includes both plate discipline and the ability to make contact (Valbuena). Was Hunter part of the problem here?

17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-21-2008 16:35:44
Bavasi and Fontaine were making those calls. Hunter wasn't part of the problem, thought it's impossible for me to tell you whether he was or could be part of an answer, either.

Talking to Greg is like talking to a wall sometimes, he just doesn't tell you much. He's honest, and a pretty good dude, but it's tough to judge his skills in that role.

Even though he's not old, Hunter is a bit old school. Though Grifol is a good fit in many roles, IMO, I'm not sure Director of PD is one of them.

He plays favorites. Did it as a manager, did it as a scout, did it as coordinator of instruction and he's going to do it as the PD Dir. But I don't think Zduriencik is going to let him screw up much.

18. By: Willmore on 11-21-2008 17:01:16
So the Putz thing is now a published rumour: http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/nov/20/ringolsby-pujols-changes-mvp-stance/ The Mets have him at the top of the list, and being only a 5 mil hole in the budget, it would allow them to rebuild other part of the team through free agency. That would add a lot of value to a team trying to win now, not later. What would be the max value the M's could get now. I'm with the ownership that we can't get full value of Putz 2 years ago, but there's not guarantee we'll ever see that Putz again. It feels safe to trade him now for one of the better prospects in their system, rather than hope that his value surges at the deadline. Of course, from the sound of Zduriencik, he might want to rebuild in 2 years, rather than 4-5. Would he then try to keep a top closer, even if it hurts the farm system by not getting some top prospects in return?

19. By: marinerdan on 11-21-2008 17:56:47
Jason, Some rumor blogs mention us as a potential team for Tex or Lowe, but both said that the mariners are looking at a big free agent. Do you know if Z is going to rebuild? Tex might not be bad because it would be a really long contract and there aren't any 1B in the system so it doesn't necessarily say win now. But Lowe is old and wouldn't send rebuilding signals.

20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-21-2008 19:23:12
Not sure what Putz's value is right now, so if they do open up serious talks and consider trading Putz this winter, it's not likely to be early.

If the Mets don't include a talent named Fernando or one named Wilmer, the M's should say no anyway. There isn't much else in their system, with those two being the only star-potential spects.

re: marinerdan
The M's have called on several free agents, from what I can gather. An agent mentioned to me via email on Wednesday that Seattle has put feelers out on Teixeira, Sheets and Lowe, and have heard them connected to Penny, Wolf, Varitek - yes, Varitek - Pavano, Chad Cordero, Eddie Guardado, Giambi, Vizquel, Adam Everett and Casey Blake, and have talked trade with the Diamondbacks and Cardinals.

I don't have any further details at the moment, but it's so early right now, and with some clubs looking to back off and pare down in some manner, things may be slow for a little longer on the bigger names.

Although I think a small deal between two midwest clubs might go down this weekend.

21. By: jonbbt on 11-22-2008 02:32:08
That is some very interesting stuff, Jason. I can't imagine how Varitek gets any thought at all, though. The appeal would be to have him teaching Clement, but considering the price Boras is pushing and the logjam of catchers we have, it makes no sense.

I wonder what those trade discussion are about. The first person that pops to my mind from the Cards is Chris Duncan for whatever reason. Not the best fit but it would be alright.

22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-22-2008 11:40:57
I think Jack is just trying to feel out Boras, to be honest. At least that's what I'd be doing, so I'd ask about just about all of his FA clients.

I'm pretty sure the STL talks are about Betancourt and I know the Diamondbacks discussions at least included Betancourt or Lopez.

23. By: Slack on 11-22-2008 14:49:00
If the M's are talking to the D"Backs, is Jarrod Parker untouchable? I think I already know the answer to that question (yes!) but I thought I would throw it out anyway for the heck of it.

24. By: 01v-dubs on 11-22-2008 14:57:48
Jason, if Putz gets traded this winter do you think that increses the chances they sign Fields? I only ask because I can't think of anyone in the system who could close games right now. I'd like to think Lowe could, but he was very inconsitant last year.

25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-22-2008 15:18:22
No, I don't. Remember, wins and losses aren't the number one goal for 2009. They are once they hit the field, but as they put together a roster, it's not. So if they get a good offer for Putz, who cares who closes?

Fields will sign if he wants to come down off his asking price and meet the M's in he middle. If not, he goes back in the draft and the M's pick 22nd as well in June.

26. By: jgstecker on 11-23-2008 08:37:38
It could also be that Fields isn't a talent Zduriencik is interested in coughing up next year's 22nd overall pick for. He may not be someone Z thought that highly of. I seem to remember there was a lot of speculation that Milwaukee might have taken him earlier and they passed. Would a package of Niese and Kunz work for Putz? Maybe with David Murphy in the mix? Those guys seem like potentially solid big leaguers. I'm not sure Putz generates a star prospect in return, even if he re-establishes himself. One thing that worries me about the Mets is that they keep popping up at the top of the list for K-Rod and Ibanez. If the Mets end up with both, that'd be a nightmare for the M's since K-Rod's Elias rating is higher than Raul's. The Angels would get the Mets 1st rounder and the M's would get their 2nd rounder. That'd stink, we'd be dropping from #25 overall to #85. Trading Putz would mitigate that risk at least. None of the other potential Ibanez suitors (Philly, the Cubs, Tampa) would be likely to add another Type A. Atlanta is an option now too, but their pick is protected.

27. By: jonbbt on 11-23-2008 15:46:55
"One thing that worries me about the Mets is that they keep popping up at the top of the list for K-Rod and Ibanez. If the Mets end up with both, that'd be a nightmare for the M's since K-Rod's Elias rating is higher than Raul's. The Angels would get the Mets 1st rounder and the M's would get their 2nd rounder. That'd stink, we'd be dropping from #25 overall to #85. Trading Putz would mitigate that risk at least." That is an interesting point.. never thought of that.

28. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-23-2008 19:21:49
RE: Fields
I've asked 13 amateur scouts, two scouting directors, and two PD directors about No. 22 versus Fields, and the vote went 10-2-1 in favor of signing Fields instead of taking the pick.

The uncertainty of the draft value of that 22nd pick and the value Fields would have in trade if he gets into camp and pitches in the big leagues in 2009 is, according to 10 of those I asked.

If the Fields situation gets past the middle of spring training, the club will have a better idea of how valuable No. 22 might actually be, so they can make a better assessment of what they are gaining or giving up. I suggest they don't give an inch on Fields' demands, and hold it off until they get a better idea.

Re: Mets and Ibanez
If their Director of Professional Scouting and their amateur scouting coordinator gets their way, Ibanez will not come close to the Mets roster in 2009. They both see Beltran being flanked by a Church-Tatis platoon on one side and Murphy on the other.

They'd like to get an upgrade in one of those corners, but they prefer a right-hander to offset their lineup, and don't appear interested in taking such a defensive hit. They also added that they aren't likely to give up Fernando Martinez for Putz, just as they won't go five years on K-ROD.

You are not currently logged in. If you'd like to comment on this report, please log in.
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!