| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-10-2011 |
All you need for the Hot Stove action is here:Important Dates and Deadlines
The M's payroll situation
Links to free agents by position
Albert Pujols is perhaps the greatest hitter the game has seen in more than a half century, but the big fish on the free agent market is Prince Fielder. Fielder is coming off another excellent season at the plate, posting a .415 on-base percentage and smacking 38 home runs. He'll be just 28 years old next May and has postseason experience.
On paper, as a hitter, Fielder looks like the perfect free agent, and some club is certainly going to sign him to a long-term deal at well over $100 million.
When assessing what Fielder is worth on the open market one has to take a number of factors into consideration. We know Fielder can hit. We know he's a below-average defensive first baseman, and we know he's a left-handed stick that fits in any lineup. Let's tackle those factors, one-by-one.
Production
Fielder is a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat that hits for average and power -- to all fields -- has no severe platoon split and instantly and significantly would improve any lineup upon his arrival. Fielder is worth the average annual salaries that are being rumored -- somewhere between $20 million and $25 million per season seems to be the consensus belief.
Fielder, however, offers no value on the bases, is a 40 defender, at best, on the 20-80 scouting scale, and may be best suited as a designated hitter. That, in itself, removes value from what he offers as a player. Having said that, however, Fielder is still worth $20 million or more per season.
The problem is, Fielder isn't likely to be worth that kind of money for long.
Staying Power
Fielder is a 300-plus pounder and despite having a strong history of health, isn't likely to continue producing at a rate that warrants even a six-year contract, let alone the seven or eight-year pact that is believed to be his asking price. Eight years and $180 million is far too much guaranteed money for most players, including Fielder, despite his relatively young age.
He's not going to age well and history tells us that bad-bodied position players peak 2-3 years before the average player, and tend to fall of the face of the earth in terms of performance starting at age 31, as presented by FanGraphs.com's Ryan Campbell.
Campbell also shows, via a four-table chart, that unless Fielder is somehow far superior to the game's previous heavy-weight ballplayer in terms of aging and future conditioning, he's going to cost the team that signs him between $17 million and $60 million on a seven-year contract. That's a lot of dead weight, no pun intended.
Present Value
Because Fielder may not be worth but 60-70 percent of a $25 million annual salaried deal from years four through seven, the first three seasons have to be viewed as winning years. For clubs where Fielder could legitimately make the difference between a postseason appearance and staying home in October during the years 2012-14 -- all three of them -- Fielder is probably worth a seven-year contract.
Where Fielder isn't likely to be worth the investment is for clubs that are still working toward legitimate contention.
The Seattle Mariners happen to fall into that category. For now.
The Attraction
While Fielder isn't the final piece of the puzzle for at least half the clubs rumored to have interest in him -- Seattle, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Forida Marlins, San Francisco Giants -- he also should not be considered the final acquisition of the offseason for any of the above organizations.
If Fielder signs in, say, Chicago, that may motivate both the Cubs and other free agents -- the Cubs may see more value in continuing to make moves toward winning 90-plus games in 2012, rather than taking the more-anticipated patient approach.
If the Mariners inked Fielder, Mike Carp or Justin Smoak could be included in a trade package to add more offensive help, and it might make it more plausible to deal away a top prospect to add another big bat to complement Fielder.
Let's paint such a picture.
Fielder signs with the M's -- the terms aren't really all that important, but for the sake of argument, we'll call it a six-year deal at $140 million with a vesting option for year seven at $20 million more. General manager Jack Zduriencik's next move could very well be to sign a left fielder such as Grady Sizemore, or make a deal for an outfielder, such as Nick Swisher or Andre Ethier.
In fact, there's a good chance the above scenario works out in reverse order -- the outfielder added, then Fielder signed. After that, other incremental improvement can be made as true supplements to a potential division winner.
Add in both bats to the M's lineup and look at the result:
1. Ichiro, RF
2. Ackley, 2B
3. Ethier/Sizemore/Swisher, LF
4. Fielder, 1B/DH
5. Smoak/Carp, 1B/DH
6. Gutierrez, CF
7. Seager, 3B
8. Olivo, C
9. Ryan, SS
That's a big-league lineup capable of scoring 700-750 runs -- maybe 800 or more if Ackley and/or Smoak/Carp take significant steps forward.
Conclusion
In the end, no, the M's aren’t likely to sign Fielder for any amount of money. He's from Florida, has spent his career in Middle America and is certainly going to want to win now, and the chances the M's sit at the top of his list are slim and none.
Sure, Zduriencik drafted him and Tom McNamara scouted and signed him, but he's not best friends with anyone in Seattle and I don't believe knowing the top two scouts in an organization well ever has convinced a player to sign in a particular city. It's about money, it's about winning and it's about quality of life, probably in that order.
The Dodgers won't be allowed to spend big until the new ownership is approved and in place, and it sounds like the Giants are more focused on their outfield and shortstop problems, as they should be. The Blue Jays make some sense, but they may be the frontrunners for Joey Votto if he's indeed made available, and it doesn't sound like the Texas Rangers are planning on being very aggressive.
Baltimore, too, appears to be planning to pass on the big-money free agents this offseason, as new GM Dan Duquette gets settled and starts his rebuild from scratch.
The wildcards here, for me, are the Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are already talking with free agent Jose Reyes and have linked to left-handers Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson and could move Gaby Sanchez in a trade to make room for Fielder. The Nationals are focused on pitching and have both Adam LaRoche and Mike Morse, who will make more than $11 million combined in 2012, on the roster to handle first base, but Fielder's presence in that lineup could make the club true contenders right away.
For the M's to be considered real players in the end, the price is likely to have to come down from the eight years guaranteed, and some of the above suitors will have to eliminate themselves from contention. If both of the above occur, however, the M's could very well pounce, whether it's a good idea or not.
potential-winter-target:-prince-fielder
Comments
The following 60 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: everettdude on 11-10-2011 03:12:34 I thought the aging curve was interesting for the big guys vs the average major leaguer. But another data point that I haven't seen discussed yet for Fielder is his genetics. We have his dad's career to compare him to also. While certainly not the star his estranged son is, Cecil had a nice career with a OPS+ rating of 118. But was out of baseball after his age 34 season. |
| 2. By: valencia on 11-10-2011 06:37:29 There's no way Fielder + Ethier over Smoak + Wells adds 150-200 runs to this team's offense. I'd expect they add 50-60 runs max, just in 2012. Ethier/Swisher would hit FA then (not to mention where is this extra $10-15 million coming from) and we'd be left with another LF hole. Fielder's impact is overrated. He'd add 40 runs over a 2nd year Smoak/Carp, but in a couple years Smoak/Carp could easily get close, if not match Fielder's production, for 1/5th the cost. As for predictions on where he goes, LAD is my guess. Kemp is rumored to sign an extension, and is trying to persuade Fielder to come to LA. Obviously they need to complete a sale first but they should have it done before the FA deadline. |
| 3. By: jgstecker on 11-10-2011 09:02:53 Valencia, that formula would be fine if Prince and Ethier were replacing Smoak and Wells. They're not. Smoak isn't going anywhere and Wells is till going together in a couple hundred ABs. The ABs being replaced belonged to Cust, Peguero, Saunders, Kennedy, and the other crap run through LF and DH. The Fielder contact as detailed above is fine with me. His last years may be disappointing, but even in those aging charts we're still looking at getting some sort of return. Plus we'd have the good years to look back on. It'd be much better than getting nothing for the current contacts we've got hanging around. Fielder's contract wouldn't prevent us throwing our money away on the Wilsons and Olivos of the world either. The Dodgers have their hands tied. He's not going there. Its the Cubs or the Mariners. I'd give the Cubs the edge, but we don't know what their plan is yet. |
| 4. By: valencia on 11-10-2011 11:08:10 If it's not Smoak, it's Carp. You can only have 2 1B/DH types, and it's a wash at this point. And Ethier/Swisher replaces Wells who's penciled in to start 2012 so I have no idea what you're talking about with the Cust Kennedy Peguero thing. Dodgers still have a few months to sell and sign Fielder. Boras is going to wait until they sell just so he could add another player to drive up the price. Kemp is also friends with Fielder, and don't underestimate the big city + friends angle. That's what got Lebron in Miami. Honestly I find the whole Fielder talk pointless because LAD, CHC, TEX, TOR, WSH, and MIA are all sexier than us, and if any of them offer equal money we won't win. Also, an ESPN article had baseball execs rate Fielder as top FA over Pujols. I don't really think $140/6+1 gets it done even without NYY/BOS driving up the price. |
| 5. By: FatBat on 11-10-2011 11:17:24 jgstecker makes a fine point. " Plus we'd have the good years to look back on". Who ever signs Fielder I'm betting gets at least 3yrs if not 4 Top Production from the guy and saying that the last 2 or 3 wont be Cust numbers he will produce something...can anyone tell me what Ichiro made last year and what he should have made for what he did? Every team, Every team wins and looses. For me the best thing we can do maybe, is sign Fielder and make a nice trade for another bat and start getting this team to the world series in a couple of years, and have those good years to look back on. Anyone tired of the Rangers? Tired of the Angels? com'on! We have the pitching to make that happen, we do not have the bats. So we have a Ichiro like situation for a year or two. By the way, I loved the article Jason! Good Stuff chears Muzzle Muzzle I'm out. |
| 6. By: skyway park on 11-10-2011 11:48:30 This is off topic, but has been on my mind does anyone think Tampa would trade us Upton for Franklin plus a minor piece. I have read that Tampa might not afford Upton since his salary this year should reach around 8 mil |
| 7. By: skyway park on 11-10-2011 12:06:00 Guess I should have sais gutz not nick sorry |
| 8. By: nighthawk180 on 11-10-2011 12:29:20 Regarding Franklin I think we shouldn't trade him unless the return is an clear cut upgrade i.e. votto or other young stud hitter that fills a need. Remember Ryan's contract if up after this year if I remember right who's going to replace him? A cheap switch hitting SS with power and decent defense don't grow on tree's. A little over two years ago he was in High School. Now he's knocking on the door for Major's. I want him to be our starting SS. The rising stars game was no joke this kid is special. |
| 9. By: dafix_isin on 11-10-2011 12:40:07 I think privately, Prince must seethe at any and all comparisons between himself and his estranged father. I'm sure he's heard the over-the-hill in his early thirties (like his father)arguments before. Seem to recall about a year ago, when his father speculated as to where his son would end up come spring of 2012. He listed the LAs, Chicagos, the usual suspects. My point is, I believe there's clearly a part of Prince that will play the contrarian in this whole free agency speculation. Partly, to prove his father wrong, partly to prove the naysayers wrong. And because of this, I think he's going to justify more than just the first three or so years of whatever contract he signs. If he makes his decision based on his agent's credo (money talks, bull---t walks), then indeed, he's destined for a major market team. Who would want to leave tens of millions of dollars on the table? Right? Skyway park, getting off topic, yeah, I too wish that Franklin had shown signs of recovering his health towards the end of the season. The arbitration deadline is later tonight (I think), and I believe TB will offer it to Upton. But I think long term, they're not gonna extend him and will probably look to move him by the trade deadline. By then, it will be more expensive. Who knows though? Getting more off topic, how crazy (on a scale of 1 to 10) would it be for Trader Jack to offer up Pineda, Tai Walker and some OFers for Lincecum? Maybe 10 isn't high enough, but if Timmy wanted to remain a Giant, don't you think he would've worked something out by now? Maybe both sides are just playing the system, but his numbers are about to enter ridiculous territory. Everybody knows that Sabean likes to hang onto his arms (unless you're Jonathan Sanchez, apparently), but you gotta think that he doesn't immediately hang up the phone on an offer like this. |
| 10. By: dafix_isin on 11-10-2011 12:43:56 Skyway Park... Now that you've pointed out that it's Nick Franklin and not "Death to Flying Thins" Franklin, I say no way, no how. A healthy Guti, plus a minor leaguer sounds do-able, but it would all be about getting Upton to sign an extension with the M's. I would still be for this if possible. |
| 11. By: skyway park on 11-10-2011 13:28:26 I was talking about trading Guti for Upton sorry for the confusion. I didn't notice the mistake until I reread what I wrote |
| 12. By: jgstecker on 11-10-2011 14:33:11 Jayson Stark brought up any interesting point about Prince today: NL teams will be very leery of going beyond 5 years for Fielder. If the bad body model holds up, he may be still be a passable DH at age 33, but he could very likely be totally incapable of playing the field. And with the being his only shot at a big payday, the 6th and 7th years will be crucial for him. Since we're on the crazy trade ideas topic, here's mine for today: League, Triunfel or Martinez, Saunders, and maybe a decent A ball prospect for Edinson Volquez and Yasmani Grandal. is on the outside of Cincy's rotation and trading him essentially gets them a closer for a net cost of $2-3 million. They get a lot better for 2012 without much financial impact. Volquez has two arbitration years left and could be a strong bounce-back and sell high candidate for the M''s or a low cost filler for Hultzen and Paxton. The Reds are likely going to have to rebuild at 2B/3B soon and Triunfel or Martinez could be a part of that. Saunders helps them out in their outfield depth. Grandal is of course blocked in Cincy and would be come our switch-hitting catcher of the future. |
| 13. By: DMac33 on 11-10-2011 14:34:13 Couple of thoughts here that I'll break up into 2 posts. What I really find interesting is all this discussion about Prince and his body shape. I think it goes without saying that an athlete that isn't in shape isn't going to be an athlete long term. However, there's a difference between being big bodied and being out of shape. While they are more likely to have to continually monitor, I look at guys like Fielder and Sabathia as guys that are far more big bodied than anything else. Both have to date proven to be durable and perform at a high level. Now, if we were looking at guys that have had injury histories combined with questionable body shapes, then that's a different story. Is Fielder a risk? Absolutely. But if you asked me who I considered to be more likely to perform at their respective top levels for the next 3-4 years into the future, I'd rather bet my money on someone like Fielder with no injury history than say a guy like Guti that appears to be in great shape with a lengthy injury history. |
| 14. By: acqb1424 on 11-10-2011 15:37:03 I really like the idea of Fielder AND Ethier. What would it take to pry Ethier away from LA? I still would like to see us add an impact type bat at third base, but that can wait, and with a healthy Smoak, Ackley for a full season and Fielder and Ethier added to the lineup you have the makings of a team that could do some damage. |
| 15. By: DMac33 on 11-10-2011 16:31:18 Regarding some of the suggestions in the original article: I'd strongly work towards obtaining Andre Ethier if he's made available. Fits the kind of profile that you are ideally looking for in Seattle as a left handed hitter that combines line drive gap power with the ability to hit the ball out of the park as well. I'd also look into seeing what it would take to bring in Grady Sizemore as a backup option to not only Guti but also Ichiro. There's plenty of room in the Mariners lineup to find 120+ games playing various OF positions as well as the DH role. You could use the local angle to give him an opportunity to play close to home while proving himself to be healthy. Moreover, it provides insurance against Guti being hurt (which is likely) and Ichiro being old and last year being more of the satus quo going forward(also likely). I'd also look into figuring out which of the players between Carp and Smoak hold greater trade value in the market and looking at spinning them in a deal that could potentially bring back a middle of the rotation arm that can help stem the tide before some of the younger kids in the organization are ready to step to the bigs. I'd look to see if there are better alternatives available at 3B that can be had on the cheap to provide at least some kind of insurance. And of course, I'd consider Figgins a sunk cost at this point and anything that you can get back for him of any potential value woul be a bonus. |
| 16. By: KingFelix on 11-10-2011 17:44:57 I would love to see us sign Fielder and Sizemore. Let Sizemore play a little LF, CF, DH and RF in 2012 and if he recovers we can sign him long term in 2013 as a replacement for Ichiro. This allows us to hold onto Franklin, Hultzen, Paxson, Pineda and Walker. |
| 17. By: FelixElRey on 11-10-2011 20:05:11 I just don't see any top-tier hitters signing in Seattle as free agents. Just look at Beltre's numbers for the seasons before and after his years in Seattle. We just need to sign all the pitchers we can and flip them for hitters. |
| 18. By: Edman on 11-11-2011 03:25:22 Safeco is a difficult hitters park for righthanded hitters, but that won't deter top lefthanded hitters. I doubt that Fielder would be afraid to come to Seattle. Money talks, and free agents will always follow the money. Signing pitchers isn't the answer either. Guys that you can flip in a trade, don't come cheap. |
| 19. By: FelixElRey on 11-11-2011 05:41:45 For a hitter, we'll have to pay much more than everyone else, whereas with a pitcher, we'll have to offer equal and sometimes a bit less because of the advantage that they know they'll have pitching in Safeco. I just think our best chance of bringing in a MOTO bat is going to be via trade instead of FA, so we should load up on pitchers who may eventually be trade bait or allow us to trade some of our young arms. |
| 20. By: KingFelix on 11-11-2011 08:21:01 Why don't we bring in the fences from center RF to LF so we can develop RH hitters like the Mets are doing with CITI field? Safeco was built at the height of the steroid era. |
| 21. By: Rudolf on 11-11-2011 08:33:57 I think it goes beyond the dimensions of our field, wind patterns, and losing heritage. Seattle is outer space for a lot of guys from Texas, Florida, even California. Our weather, culture, demographics, etc., are so different from what they know. Some can appreciate what our city has to offer, many choose not to. I used to travel for work the entire country. If you told me I could live in St. Louis for more money and prestige than elsewhere I would politely decline and stay on a coastline, preferably the west coast. Middle America sucks for more reasons than I care to list. I don't think the players are any different than myself in this respect. If you have a choice, why go to a foreign country? |
| 22. By: Jerry on 11-11-2011 08:50:02 I love all the recent speculation and ideas being thrown around about what this club should do this offseason. Seems like people are taking one of two stances: 1) keep rebuilding, let the kids emerge as long-term cornerstones, and be patient (e.g. conservative) 2) go all in, give up some prospect to acquire elite guys (Votto) or sign big-name free agents (e.g. Fielder), and try to contend now Oddly enough, Dave Cameron suggested that this wasn't a dichotomy, and the team didn't have to take an extreme position, then he posted two different scenarios that are each examples of this all-or-nothing approach. The M's are in a tough spot, since they can't afford to do nothing of interest to common fans (scenario #1 above). But they aren't really in a position to sacrifice the future to contend immediately (scenario #2 above) given the state of the roster and farm system. I'd like to see the M's be aggressive in working towards the future. I'd like to see lots of trades and ballsy moves, but still focusing on 2013-4. Guys like Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes are guys who would help make this team more exciting to follow AND help build for the future. Those two, plus a few smart trades, and this could be a good team sooner than later. I don't think this club has to decide between being boring or going all-in and mortgaging the future. |
| 23. By: Rudolf on 11-11-2011 11:16:57 I agree with Jerry. To pull it off, though, it will take a brilliant sequence of moves. I put my faith in Jack Z to get it done. However, the more I look at the Rangers burgeoning state of affairs-- their juggernaut offense-- the more I think the M's need to retain front line pitching. Whatever Taijuan Walker has in trade value now, as he develops chances are he becomes much more valuable, especially to us. We may badly need him in three years, certainly if Felix heads elsewhere. Pineda, Paxton, and Campos, too. The pitching potential of our team is ridiculous. I know the "dream rotations" seldom work out, but if Texas continues to pile up talent, with their increasing budget and southern allure we might be needing a dream rotation to contend. I sure don't want to be looking up at those guys for the next ten years. What are the odds we can build an offense to rival theirs? Not good-- they have a head-scratching advantage. Yet I watched the San Francisco Giants mock them with dominant pitching. I think that's the course we need to stay. That's why we built the park the way we did. Build the offense, but not at the risk of blowing our tremendous pitching advantage. Yoenis says hello! |
| 24. By: DMac33 on 11-11-2011 11:26:46 2 Thoughts: 1) With the way Safeco is built, you definitely do need to lean towards being a pitching team first. You can win by being a pitching team first. The Dodgers of the past proved that you could do that. St. Louis used to be a place where you couldn't hit for power and won with pitching and speed. But to win you have to fully embrace the type of game that you are trying to play. 2) I'd only recommend trading the pitching out if/when you know that you have all of the pieces that you need for your own needs. However, I'd also caution that building up too much of a surplus of pitching can also come back to bite you as well if other teams know that you have to move them. You have to have enough to be able to have some surplus ... but not enough where people know that they are more valuable to you if you move them than they are if they stay with you. |
| 25. By: nater on 11-11-2011 13:12:00 Did you all see this? 'Jack Zduriencik on mlbnetworkradio told us that they are WIDE OPEN if they can get an impact bat through either free agency or trade,' tweets Jim Bowden. Who knows what 'wide open' really means, but taken to it's full potential meaning, sounds to me like unlimited budget for a bat? That could be interesting. |
| 26. By: skyway park on 11-11-2011 13:16:12 Does anyone worry about having to many lefthanded bats in the lineup? Some of the guys being discussed and if Seager starts at 3rd this year then we would only have 3 RH hitters in the lineup. I realize Safeco plays better for LH hitters but also feel like we need some balance. |
| 27. By: skyway park on 11-11-2011 13:27:36 He also said that he expects the team to be young again and that there going to build from withen. I wouldn't read too much into what he said. AS we all have learned from him they keep there plans hush hush better then most teams in fact. |
| 28. By: valencia on 11-11-2011 13:42:06 I count 4 RHB if you pencil in Wells in LF with 1 SHB. That's plenty balanced. And I'm just guessing "wide open" just means they're considering everything. Nothing to do with payroll. |
| 29. By: DMac33 on 11-11-2011 14:00:26 People make way too much of an issue of right vs. left handed bats. The only time it really matters is IF the batter has far different splits and should be in a platoon. In reality, the biggest reasons that splits go crazy is because of the tough relievers that they often face ... for the top hitters that could range from 5-10% of their ABs each year (just an off the cuff guess). |
| 30. By: rjfrik on 11-11-2011 14:02:22 I'm completely on board with signing Darvish and Cespedes. Those in fact are my two highest guys on my realistic Free Agent board. I do like Fielded a lot, but he will be spendy. I think we could sign Cespedes for four years at 36 million. I also think we could sign Darvish for about four years 40 million. That's 19 million for those two players. I think that still leaves us with some flexibility to sign another player or two. Maybe not Fielder but you never know. Then throw in a trade or two and the Ms could look formidable. A rotation of King, Prince, Darvish, Vargas would be pretty sweet. And if we could add one more bat with Cespedes, look out. |
| 31. By: skyway park on 11-11-2011 14:09:00 It is sounding like Darvish will not even be posted this year so I wouldn't get your hopes up |
| 32. By: dewey on 11-11-2011 15:09:50 Way to many holes to fill to spemd that much of our payroll on one guy.I think it will set us back like the Bedard trade did. |
| 33. By: Jerry on 11-11-2011 16:05:57 rjfrik, I think you are right about Darvish. But it might cost $50 mil to win his rights. The obvious analog is Daisuke Matsuzakas contract (51 mil posting fee, 6 years/52 mil salary). I think Darvish is probably the better pitcher, but the failure of Matsuzaka, Igawa, etc will scare off some teams. Matsuzaka's salaries: 2007:$6M, 2008:$8M, 2009:$8M, 2010:$8M, 2011:$10M, 2012:$10M. Although Matsuzaka cost a ton, his annual salaries aren't that ridiculous. On Cespedes, I would expect the contract to be more like what Aroldis Chapman got. He signed for 6 years, 30 million. But over half (16.25 mil) was in a signing bonus. His salaries are 2011: 1 mi, 2011:$1M, 2012:$2M, 2013:$2M, 2014:$3M, 2015:$5M player option. Basically, the M's would have to greatly expand their international signing budget to get those guys. But after they are inked, the salaries would be pretty low. I think this is the time to go after guys like that. Ichiro is at the end of his career, so having Darvish come in would help from a PR standpoint. And Cespedes makes a ton of sense as a possible replacement for Ichiro in RF in 2013. Although nobody likes to talk about it, the M's do need to drum up some interest among the public and sell seats. Darvish would do that. If they could get Grady Sizemore too, that would really help get the fans interested in this club again. But most importantly, it would help add to the young nucleus of this club. A core of Felix, Darvish, Ackley, Pineda, Smoak, and Cespedes would give the M's a nice young group of players who will be hitting their peaks in the next five years. Add Hultzen, Paxton, Walker, Franklin, etc to that core, and the team would be set to compete with Texas for the next 5 years. |
| 34. By: Edman on 11-11-2011 16:08:07 How exactly did the Bedard trade set Seattle back? Yes, Adam Jones has turned out to be a good player, but so far, he's not a difference maker. He hasn't exactly lead the Orioles enough to move them out of last place. George Sherrill was a tough loss, but his loss didn't propel Seattle into the cellar. Chris Tillman couldn't break into Seattle's 5 man rotation, and will struggle to stay in the Oriole rotation next year. Tony Butler is back in the Seattle organization after being released. Kam Mikolio has struggled in the major leagues, and may be headed to Japan. The Bedard trade left a bad taste in many people's mouths, but it has not proven to be a difference maker to either team. And, signing an expensive free agent is nothing like the Bedard trade. |
| 35. By: Edman on 11-11-2011 16:16:43 Darvish would help attendance once every five days, just like Felix. Fielder would help every day. So, it's not really a good argument to state that Darvish would help from a PR standpoint. What does the average non-foamer baseball fan know about him? Prince has much greater fan recognition, if that's what you're looking for. Darvish for $40 million? Most experts think it will past $100 million, factoring in the posting fee. As insane as baseball it, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see someone pay way past 4 years @ $36 million for Cespedes. Do get even one of those two, would be huge. To expect two, is highly unlikely. |
| 36. By: skyway park on 11-11-2011 16:31:09 Did you see that the Phillies gave 5 years 60 mil to Papelbon that's crazy starting to wonder what the good players are going to get as it seems like Papelbon has been in decline for the last 2 years. |
| 37. By: DMac33 on 11-11-2011 16:35:13 Fixing an attendance problem is simple ... but an entertaining product out on the field that wins games. Big named players by themselves won't get people out to the park ... |
| 38. By: Gibbo on 11-11-2011 17:13:57 Edman - great way to look at the Bedard trade. You know so manyt people blamed that trade for a large part of our plight, I dont want to turn this thread off topic but the issue with the Bavasi era was that he didnt replenish our system becasue of his teams poor drafting. Its another reason I would trade away an arm for an impact bat. Jack Z will make sure he wont gut the farm and will replenish the key parts he sends away with high draft picks this year. |
| 39. By: Edman on 11-11-2011 17:57:16 I dunno. I would certainly consider going to more games to see Fielder crush a baseball on a regular basis. Much more so than to watch Darvish pitch every fifth day. |
| 40. By: Gibbo on 11-11-2011 18:23:10 Edman - great way to look at the Bedard trade. You know so manyt people blamed that trade for a large part of our plight, I dont want to turn this thread off topic but the issue with the Bavasi era was that he didnt replenish our system becasue of his teams poor drafting. Its another reason I would trade away an arm for an impact bat. Jack Z will make sure he wont gut the farm and will replenish the key parts he sends away with high draft picks this year. |
| 41. By: FelixElRey on 11-11-2011 19:19:14 I think the argument for Darvish would be the off the field income by retaining the Japanese market as Ichiro continues to fade/burn out. Speaking solely on stadium attendance, Fielder obviously brings more fans. Regardless of where the money comes in, both would significantly add to the M's bottom line translating to a bigger budget. |
| 42. By: valencia on 11-11-2011 23:30:07 Can't bank on Darvish. He might not post, and it's a one shot deal - you bid the highest you can and if you lose oh well. We're not connected at all to Cespedes so our FO isn't intereseted at all. I think the idea of Cespedes fits perfectly, but in actuality he might not be good (if Pat Gillick says so). When you think Fielder will increase tickets sales, he won't. In 2005 we added Beltre/Sexson and we LOST ticket sales. That's because we went from a 63 win team to 69 win team. Big names mean interest, but that doesn't translate to ticket sales. Only winning translate to ticket sales, and adding Fielder's 3-4 wins won't do much, unless it's going from 87 to 90 wins and playoffs. |
| 43. By: Edman on 11-12-2011 04:46:09 I don't believe that the Mariners any special income because they have a star Japanese player(s). As I remember, all International revenues are divided up evenly between all the MLB teams. |
| 44. By: FelixElRey on 11-12-2011 08:19:02 I'm truly ignorant to how this all works, but I would assume that M's somehow benefit from clothing and jersey sales. If that's true, then you're telling me that if every kid in Japan bought a Mariners Darvish jersey, then we split that revenue with other clubs?? |
| 45. By: dewey on 11-12-2011 09:48:35 Edman i understand your Point on Bedard deal . If we put 25 mil in Fielder how do we fill all the holes we need to fill there are a bunch of holes to fill.If JZ is gonna be here for years wouldnt 2 good guys at 10 and one pretty good guy at 5 help alot more getting this thing turned around? One guys star power wont fill the seats but a better overall club will get us heading in the right direction to contention. |
| 46. By: KingFelix on 11-12-2011 09:58:02 Dewey, How many second tier busts do we need to sign until we learn our lesson about spreading the money around. If you are going to spend big money get a star or we will end up with more Silva, Washburn and Figgins type contracts. |
| 47. By: Rudolf on 11-12-2011 10:41:05 Whether the M's are linked to Cespedes or not we will be in on him. Cincinnati came from nowhere to sign Chapman two years ago. I would much rather see us spend 48 million over four years for this guy than mess around with the Sizemore's and Cuddyers of the world. The potential reward vastly outweighs the risk. |
| 48. By: dewey on 11-12-2011 11:00:41 #46 Alot of that depends on your scouts and your GMS decision making abilitys. Silva@Washburn being Bavasi and Figgins being Jack. There our good players and winning type players out there in those price ranges the mariners have to pick the right ones. I truly believe Fielder is great but him and the group we have now might be able to catch the Oakland club if 3rd place is what we want then thats fine. |
| 49. By: Edman on 11-12-2011 12:40:30 #44, all major league sports apparel revenue is divided up evenly. There is no extra money in it for Seattle if someone buys an Ichiro jersey, instead of a Jeter jersey. I'm not certain, but I know from back when they signed Ichiro, many wrongly assumed that it meant a lot of extra revenue from Japan for Seattle, and it didn't. |
| 50. By: KingFelix on 11-12-2011 12:44:27 Fielder alone might not get us in contention in 2012 but he should help develop Ackley, Smoak, Carp and Wells by taking the heat off them to produce and if they develop around Fielder we should make a run for the division in 2013 and 2014. |
| 51. By: Lailoken on 11-12-2011 12:51:56 The big money from signing Ichiro comes in the scads of tourists to Seattle & Peoria. The sheer number of tourists from Japan is evident at any game in Safeco. I've never been to spring training but every photo I see features many tourists. The numbers for Ichiro may not be what they once were but he is still the biggest star to come out of Japan. Getting Darvish would corner the market on the big names. Dice-K is alright, Fukudome is a starting OF, & the few other players fill roles but Ichiro & Darvish are the bona fide stars. For the local economy the tourists are a big plus too. A lot of locals go to the game then get back in their cars & leave. Tourists make a day of things in the city. In a larger sense, a significant portion of the money spent on Ichiro is recouped. I am sure someone in the M's FO has a model in place to weigh how much. |
| 52. By: Lailoken on 11-12-2011 13:15:38 The big money from signing Ichiro comes in the scads of tourists to Seattle & Peoria. The sheer number of tourists from Japan is evident at any game in Safeco. I've never been to spring training but every photo I see features many tourists. The numbers for Ichiro may not be what they once were but he is still the biggest star to come out of Japan. Getting Darvish would corner the market on the big names. Dice-K is alright, Fukudome is a starting OF, & the few other players fill roles but Ichiro & Darvish are the bona fide stars. For the local economy the tourists are a big plus too. A lot of locals go to the game then get back in their cars & leave. Tourists make a day of things in the city. In a larger sense, a significant portion of the money spent on Ichiro is recouped. I am sure someone in the M's FO has a model in place to weigh how much. |
| 53. By: micahjr on 11-12-2011 15:10:52 Guess no one noticed that Yoenis Cespedes is a powerful righty? He's got some juice in the bat, but I'm not sure it's in his best interest to come to Safeco. I see him signing somewhere a little more friendly to his type of bat. From his video, it looks like he can hit it out to all fields, but I've not seen enough game tape or distribution data to make a judgment on that. I did notice that they avoided showing any footage that would show his fielding in his promo video. I think he may be in CF for his speed, but may not be a good fielder. The guy is beastly strong with a compact and quick swing, but Safeco has done nasty things to the beastly strong before. I would pursue Darvish, but I'm not sold on Prince yet. |
| 54. By: Blowgun7 on 11-12-2011 15:19:10 Why doesn't this joke of a organization move the fences in so the park plays fair? I'm so sick of having to eliminate players from being acquired because they are right handed bats.. It's a joke that we can't even discuss these guys because our ballpark totally demoralizes them.. Our pitching is strong enough now and in the future to handle moving those fences in a bit |
| 55. By: nighthawk180 on 11-12-2011 16:10:44 While i dont know the extent of profit sharing of the MLB but i do know they dont share tv deals. We have a mega deal in Japan simply because of Ichiro. Without him it would not exist. He does make the M's money in and by himself. Jersey sales and stuff like that not so sure about but the tv deal is a big money for the team. |
| 56. By: Rudolf on 11-12-2011 16:34:12 I totally disagree with the notion to move the fences in. What we need to do is finish building a team that is complemented by the field. Then we'll possess a true home-field advantage. Players don't want to come to Seattle for more than our field dimensions. How many star free agent players have signed in our city over the years? Beltre was viewed by many GMs as a contract year fluke, and we offered him the most $$ anyway. Sexson was raised in the area, as was Olerud. Seattle isn't a popular destination because of it's geographic local and weather. We're a boring, fairweather fan base that hardly knows how to cheer at the games. And it isn't like right handed hitters can't hit it out of Safeco. Alex Rodriguez crushed in Seattle-- in 2000 he OPS'd more than he ever did in Texas. Boonie and Edgar hit 37 dingers apiece. Sexson had the necessary strumph. I watch visiting righties park it all the time. PItching, defense, left-handed power and the proper right-handed guys should make 82 games a year a real headache for the visiting teams. Jack Z knows what he's doing. |
| 57. By: valencia on 11-13-2011 01:47:47 RHBs not hitting well at Safeco is a myth. The truth is only RH pull hitters don't play well, because our LF/CLF has awful HR factors. Guys who can hit it all over the field won't have trouble with Safeco. This actually works the opposite way as well. LHBs who pull well will be helped by Safeco. Fielder hits the ball everywhere so he won't be helped by Safeco much, but he won't be hurt either. Votto is weird, because he hits everything to the opposite field, so he wouldn't fit as well at Safeco. As for the TV deals, they are negotiated by the MLB, not the M's, and the MLB spreads the money through revenue sharing. There is literally no external benefit coming from Japan if we acquire Darvish, other than a slightly Japanese heavy area creating some buzz for him and the Mariners. |
| 58. By: micahjr on 11-13-2011 07:51:35 Cespedes could work here, as I noted that he seems to hit to all fields in BP, but he may not be interested in coming to a place that has a reputation for doing nasty things to righty hitters, rains a bunch, and has little cuban culture. For the record, I'd like the M's to bring him in for a workout, but I think that other towns have advantages in recruitment, be it friendlier park confines, or community support (Miami). |
| 59. By: maqman on 11-13-2011 13:45:55 The M's benefit only from sales in team stores. They also benefit directly from Safeco Field advertising by Japanese advertisers and do very well off of Japanese tourists at the park. Considering we get a share of Boston, New York and L. A. team's jersey and hat sales, etc. that seems fair to me. The direct Japanese income to the club pays a lot of what Ichiro costs the team. 10,000 Japanese visitors spending $100 at Safeco equals $1MM to the club and much more to the city. The city of Seattle and King County should subsidize the costs of Japanese players for the club. Not holding my breath. |
| 60. By: mjkleko on 11-15-2011 03:33:49 Just reading the most recent TradeRumors post which mentioned the Rockies willing to take Figgins if the M's eat his salary. Depressing that the team essentially has to buy a roster spot on its own team- is it worth it? Also, there has been talk of Martin Prado trade between the Braves and Rockies. I have to say, I would absolutely love to see Prado in an M's uniform, given his ability to rack up the hits and play all over the infield. An economical trade for Prado and the addition of a MOTO bat I believe would qualify as a darn good offseason. |
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