Prospect Insider - Projecting the M's Roster

Projecting the M's Roster

By Jason A. Churchill

By 02-13-2011

So, the long offseason is over. The grass is green, at least down in the desert, and hundreds of ballplayers are en route to spring training where all 30 clubs in Major League Baseball have hope.

It's true, there's hope for even the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners to do something special. Maybe special for these types of organizations is winning 80 games because their young players stepped up and are closer to stardom than conventional wisdom suggests they should be. Maybe it's shocking the world and going from worst to first, so to speak.

Either way, spring training is upon us, which means it's officially baseball season again.

In Seattle, it's been 133 days since the Mariners played their last game, a 4-3 loss to Oakland to complete a sweep for the Athletics. The M's ended the season on a 5-game losing streak, the seventh losing streak of more than four games for the season.

But last year's Mariners are not this year's team. The Opening Day Rosters will be vastly different from one another, no matter who wins the few battles that will take place in March. There will be no Casey Kotchman, no Rob Johnson, no Jose Lopez, and no Don Wakamatsu.

Who's taking their places? Let's take a look at the candidates, unit by unit.

Starting Rotation
Felix Hernandez is a clear lock, and Jason Vargas probably is, too. Doug Fister has the inside track as well, and if Erik Bedard is healthy, he'll be among the starting five in April.

Luke French, Blake Beavan, Nate Robertson, Charlie Haeger, Jamey Wright, David Pauley and Chris Smith will also be in camp and could get chances to earn one of the five spots, but top pitching prospect Michael Pineda is also going to be given the opportunity, and he's clearly the best of the group.

Barring injury or new acquisitions ...

Projection
1. Hernandez
2. Vargas
3. Fister
4. Bedard
5. Pineda

Bullpen
Ultimately, David Aardsma will be the main option to close out games, but until he's ready to take his job back Brandon League will get a shot, as may Chris Ray, a non-roster invitee.

Rookies Josh Lueke and Dan Cortes could earn a spot, as could Rule 5 pick Jose Flores. Left-handers Garrett Olson, Edward Paredes, Cesar Jimenez, Fabio Castro, Chris Seddon and Royce Ring will fight it out with the likelihood that at least one of them makes the roster.

But watch out for Mauricio Robles to sneak in and make the club as a relief option.

Denny Bautista is this year's Jesus Colome, Justin Miller, who has 244 games of big-league experience, could be considered a favorite for one the five open spots (League being a sure thing), while Wright, Pauley, Smith, Chaz Roe (who will otherwise start in Tacoma) Yusmeiro Petit and Manny Delcarmen look to spark enough buzz to make the club as a middle relief arm.

Another possibility -- granted, outside chance, at least to start the season -- is Beavan being shifted to the bullpen where there's a chance his velocity creeps back up into the 93-96 mph range where he was as a prep. His delivery could be sped up and with more effort, suggesting such improvements with the fastball.

Assuming Aardsma will not be ready to go on April 1, and skipper Eric Wedge goes with seven relievers out of the gate ...

Projection
Closer -- League
Setup Ray
Setup Cortes
Middle Olson
Middle Miller
Middle Bautista
Long Pauley

First Base
Justin Smoak is going to get a season-long look at first, so any time other options spend at the position will be filling in for a banged up Smoak.

Mike Carp is on that list, as is Matt Mangini and Matt Tuiasosopo, if Tui isn't DFA'd in March.

Projection
Smoak

Second Base
Dustin Ackley could blow the M's away, and still not start the year in the big leagues, though it's not completely out of the question that he's the Opening Day second baseman. It's just a real long shot.

Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy figure to be the frontrunners and could share the position, while Ryan also sees time at shortstop.

Josh Wilson is also in the mix for the backup infielder gig, as are Luis Rodriguez an Sean Kazmar.

Projection:
Ryan is the starter on April 1, Kennedy wins the backup gig and shares time nearly equally.

Shortstop
This is all Jack Wilson if he's healthy, and Ryan steps in if Wilson is not.

Josh Wilson is an option if all else fails.

Projection
Jack, with Ryan backing him and Josh, Rodriguez and Kazmar in Tacoma.

Designated Hitter
Jack Cust, Milton Bradley and Smoak figure to eat up most of the playing time at DH.

Projection
Cust, even if a southpaw starts on Opening Day, is the starter.

Catcher
Miquel Olivo, Adam Moore, Josh Bard and 28-year-old Chris Gimenez will all be in camp with Steve Baron.

Olivo is a lock, Moore and Bard will fight it out for the backup spot. Three years ago I would have argued that Moore should start the season in Tacoma. But he's 27 in May and like Saunders, it's time to sink or swim.

Projection
Olivo and Moore, with Olivo getting 60 percent of the starts. Bard heads to Tacoma.

Left Field
Saunders and Bradley will share time in left, at least until Bradley and Wedge go a few rounds after Milton walks to first base on a ground ball to short in a close game.

Mike Wilson, Jody Guerut, Gabe Gross and Ryan Langerhans will vie for playing time, but none of the three are likely to start games regularly.

Projection
The O.D. starter could be determined by who pitches for the A's that night, but Saunders figures to get significant playing time early in the season.

Center field
Franklin Gutierrez, Saunders, Ryan Langerhans, Jody Gerut and prospect Greg Halman are all capable at varying levels.

Projection
Gutierrez, of course.

Right field
Ichiro. No projection needed, he won't sit even when it's probably best that he does.

Fourth OF
Langerhans, Gross, Gerut and Wilson will battle, and Halman may get some at-bats, some the three veterans have a big advantage here.

Projection
Langerhans brings more to the table; better baserunning, better defender -- can even play some center -- and is as left-handed as the other two vets.

He's also going to have a lucky season at the plate one of these years; strong plate skills and average bat speed should equal average production somewhere along the line.

projecting-the-m\'s-roster

Comments
The following 14 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: 200tang on 02-13-2011 04:37:59
Chris Ray...setup.....

Pryor, Lueke, and every other decent reliever in the system need to hurry the hell up. I don't think I'm gonna be able to handle watching Wedge try and get anything out of those guys.

I'm also surprised you have Pineda in your OD rotation. I've just been assuming he'd start in Tacoma.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-13-2011 04:41:26
I'm 50-50 on Pineda in the bigs on OD, but the M's see to be really open to it.

3. By: jgstecker on 02-13-2011 09:06:27
I just don't see any point to having Pineda up in April. Its not worth sacrificing 2017 for a couple of potential wins. Its not like Fench is godawful. Maybe if Bedard isn't ready, Pineda can start in Seattle, as long as there's a plan in plce to send him back down for a few weeks.

Same story with the relievers, though their value in six years isn't too big of a deal.. I can see carrying one of Cortes, Lueke, or Robles until Aardsma returns. Problem is, there will surely be arms more deserving of a demotion than those kids.

This team will get a heckuva lot better come May1st.

4. By: Saltydawg05 on 02-13-2011 10:24:25
JG 6 years is a long way for a pitcher. Of course if you can guarentee he was gonna be healthy you would keep him in Tacoma to delay the arbitration clock...but because of the high rate if injury for any pitcher I think you get the innings out of him now, assuming he is one if our best 5 starters and ready for the bigs, which I think he is.

5. By: Lonnie on 02-13-2011 11:11:41
I'm a little concerned about Pineda. I delved down deep into his minor league stats, taking a look at his splits and I see that his groundball rate has been decreasing over the years and his linedrive rate has been on the rise.

Maybe I'm just tilting at a windmill with my concern. I'm beginning to get a bit cynical about prospects coming the the big club and fizzling.

Lonnie

6. By: Adam T on 02-13-2011 11:26:23
Why not start Pineda in the pen as the long man to start the year? Then in June or July you stretch him out to start. That way you limit his innings, keep him with the big-league coaching staff, and give him exposure to big-league hitters.

7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-13-2011 12:01:49
Lonnie,

The issues with Pineda have nothing to do with the rise in line drives and decrease in ground ball rates. That happens with every pitcher, unless they went from throwing four-seamers to sinking two-seamers. The better hitters know how to get loft on the ball with better swings. It just happens.

It's about his secondary pitches and his command of them.

8. By: jgstecker on 02-13-2011 12:12:47
saltydawg~

It's all about managing risk. In 6 years Pineda could be a #2 SP or a big fat nothing. If Pineda spends the entire season in Seattle in 2012, he's a free agent in 2017 and, thus, a big fat nothing to the Mariners.

But what if he does fulfill his potential? Having Luke French start 5 games to open the season is a phenomenal deal if it gives us a full year of Pineda in 2017. I'm not sure what the win differrential is between having French or Pineda start those games, but I'm sure it has to be microscopic and irrelevant to the 2011 Seattle Mariners.

9. By: Saltydawg05 on 02-13-2011 13:05:58
JG
I agree Pineda's not the difference this year for the Mariners. Even if he is worth 3 wins over French (doubtful) that isn't gonna be the difference for this team. Having said that I'm not sure worrying about a pitcher 6 years from now is essential, although sending him down could be a good way to limit his innings and keep him under club control for another year. It's sad that the biggest thing to look forward to this year may be two prospects coming up in early June

10. By: maqman on 02-13-2011 13:19:35
It's a waste of resources to have Ackley or Pineda for the first two or three months of season when we don't figure to contend. Those two seasons before they are eligible for free agency will potentially save the club several millions of dollars.

Moore and Saunders are going to show they are big leaguers this season or graduate to AAAA.

What Bedard and Smoak can contribute this season is going to be big.

11. By: Fireballer55 on 02-13-2011 13:56:23
Jason,
Am I the only one who thinks we should start Pineda in the minors not just for service time but to limit his innings. I think I would rather delay his start of the year by waiting a month to ramp up his innings. Either dont have him go in spring training or start as a reliever and increase an innings each outing. Then once his innings are there(May/June) we call him up. I dont want him going beyond 165 range for the year. Im still a little worried about his inning hike.

12. By: bigolddave on 02-13-2011 14:06:15
Hay Jason what happened to your thirdn base prediction???

13. By: krob4mvp on 02-13-2011 15:23:50
Duh! It's clearly Chone Figgins....haha! Just playing bro.....I was thinking the same thing

14. By: Jerry on 02-14-2011 10:02:19
I was also surprised to see Pineda in the projection.

If I were the M's, I wouldn't let him win a spot out of spring training. They need to think long term with him, and limit his innings. Its much easier to do that in Tacoma. And its not like he would be wasting his time in AAA. Plus, there is the issue of starting his arbitration clock.

Leaving him in AAA for a month or two seems like an absolute no brainer to me.

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