| By Jason A. Churchill | ![]() | By 09-20-2010 |
| 1. By: littlelinny6 on 09-20-2010 17:03:47 Quick correction, Halman is a CF and Chavez a RF. Obviously it is impossible to know at this point but coming out of Spring Training in 2011 what level do you project each of Pineda, Ackley, and Franklin each starting our their years? It would be cool to see Pineda in the 2011 rotation but it seems like that may be pushing given that the M's will be non-competitive in 2011. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-20-2010 18:15:44 No, linny, Halman is a RF and Chavez is a LF. That is where they profile best as big leaguers. I don't care where they played this year, though Halman, like Saunders, can play center. Chavez's arm does not profile well in right. |
| 3. By: micahjr on 09-20-2010 20:36:55 The front office doesn't agree with you about Chavez's arm. Tom McNamara said he had the strongest outfield arm in the system. He doesn't have plus speed, but could definitely play right field. Halman is also generally rated as above average in centerfield. I think Halman is the 4th outfielder in 2012. I only hope he continues improving on plate discipline. His power will play at safeco, as he hits alot of his dingers to right center. |
| 4. By: Chris Crawford on 09-20-2010 21:01:23 Having a strong arm, doesn't make you a RF. Period. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-20-2010 21:51:36 Chavez's arm grades out as a 50 or 55 on the 20-80 scale. Halman has a better arm. And James Jones certainly does. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 09-20-2010 21:55:01 More on Halman in center. I never said he couldn't play there... same with Saunders. He can. But like Saunders, as he gets older and stronger and fills out, he's going to lose footspeed, even before he gets to 30 years of age. Halman will spend more time in right or left than in center no matter which organization he is in. He's about average in center, which makes him a good outfielder. And why would the Mariners ever say anything unflattering about one of their players? Chavez's "strongest arm in the system" claim is a joke. I've seen Chavez throw, it's not a RF arm. End of story. |
| 7. By: micahjr on 09-20-2010 22:32:44 "If it's not the best throwing arm from the outfield in the organization, it's one of the best," Grifol said. "And he can run. He's got everything to be a pure right fielder. There's a lot of work to be done, but the kid's got a lot of talent." -Pedro Grifol to the Everett Herald, August 4, 2010. Maybe it's just fluffing, but both decide to talk about his arm. May be insignificant, but I think they grade him as better than a 50 (average arm)- 55(average to above average). Maybe this means they grade him a 55-60. I don't know. Either way, they didn't have to talk about his arm, but both gave it great praise. You can say a lot of positive talk without highlighting a strength "the best throwing arm from the outfield in the organization...[or] one of the best." Seems kind of silly in this light that you still call Mangini a 3b, but won't give Chavez or Halman the same courtesy regarding their positions. |
| 8. By: ghill34 on 09-20-2010 22:50:09 Someone needs scout school.....especially if they're pretending to be one. Huge difference between a LF arm and a RF arm. |
| 9. By: Edgar for Pres on 09-21-2010 03:32:16 Nick Franklin was robbed!!! Good stuff guys. |
| 10. By: John_S on 09-21-2010 11:12:42 Jason or Chris, I forgot who tweeted this, but the full season minor league teams combined to score the most runs than any other org. Is that something that we can get excited about or with HD included is it something that we should take with a grain of salt? I'm excited for Ackley, but do you think the M's should give him some time off rather than playing in AZL? He's been playing non-stop for so long it would seem that at some point he's going to get tired or burnt out. |
| 11. By: Edman on 09-21-2010 11:13:44 A lot of scouting, professional and amature, has a certain amount of variance. Having not seen enough of either Halman or Chavez, I can't lend an opinion. However, I think it's fair to say that both have above average arms. But, arm strength in RF is preferred, but not necessarily required. If either can swing a bat at the major league level, they'll find a position for them. Both at the moment, are not ready, so it's a matter of positional preference. It's really more about their ability to get to a baseball, than their ability to throw it once they do. And, arm strength alone is useless, without accuracy. Combined, I'd have to agree that Jones is probably the best overall choice, since he grades out well in both departments. |
| 12. By: safecochatter on 09-21-2010 11:26:16 what is the future for Matt Mangini? will his defense keep him from being a every day 3rd baseman? |
| 13. By: maqman on 09-21-2010 12:57:55 I'm interested in Mangini's future too, as well as Liddi and Figgins at third base next season. Figgins is clearly a better third-baseman than at second base and when Ackley comes up is going to have to move over, in my opinion. Somebody has to find an alternative position or team eventually it would seem. Seagar might have a similar problem problem in 2012. |
| 14. By: Edman on 09-21-2010 14:06:17 I think Mangini's career is going to depend on what he shows in the Arizona Fall League. I saw him at Everett, and he's not as slick with the glove as Lopez, but he wasn't horrible either. If he can step up his game to be a least league average at third, he has some value. I suspect his role in the majors will be as a utility guy with a decent bat. Even though he doesn't walk much, he can at least hit the ball with a little power. I'm not sure that he's shown what kind of a player he can be. But this year was more like what Seattle expected when they drafted him. |
| 15. By: Sapo44 on 09-21-2010 14:31:34 Obviously you and everyone else seems to want to love Ackley. Believe me, I really like the kid too, but getting off to a slow start was just too bad. The fact is Nick Franklin didn't get off to a horrid start, so he shouldn't be punished for having a fairly steady solid year. Ackley making the transition to second base is no piece of cake, but how about an 18 or 19 year old kid making the transition to be away from home for a full season for the first time, playing with guys sometimes 3-4 years older than him. That's gotta tough too. Last but not least, Acley was supposed to hit for a high average and with at least average power, and he really didn't, Franklin was supposed to hit with below average power, and he WAY overachieved in this category. Sorry, my vote is for Franklin. |
| 16. By: Missthosepilots on 09-21-2010 21:09:28 Jason, Chris, Fellow-Long-suffering M's fans: If you had to limit the awards to the 2nd half of the year, would there be any changes to recipients? Thanks for the article and comments! |
| 17. By: Chris Crawford on 09-21-2010 21:38:51 Just the second half? Don't think so. The short-season is only the 2nd half anyway. But if you're looking for guys who had big second-halfs -- Kyle Seager and James Jones. Definitely. |
| 18. By: dewey on 09-22-2010 02:40:54 Dear Mariners just do yourself and all of us suffering fans a favor and release Lueke! If you dont feel you can call him up this year as bad as we our we will never have a use for him.My sources say Cortes was arrested for public intoxication and Urinating in public is that good? Yopung men make mistakes do i think any of them our right no but we shouldnt end a persons career if we dont want him release him..thanks |
| 19. By: Edman on 09-22-2010 04:06:49 This is one time I wish that we had George Steinbrenner running things. He'd have simply said, "Fook off, this is my team. If you don't like my decisions, you can go out the gate as well as in." I would hope that most people in general, are able to allow a man redemption. He's less likely to reoffend, than many players who don't have a spotlight on him. There are millions of reasons for him to want to be a good citizen. |
| 20. By: Edman on 09-22-2010 11:16:06 Sadly, some won't let this whole Lueke thing calm down. Dave Cameron today talked about the four additional call-ups (Halman, Mangini, Varvaro and Carp). He bothers to take the time to AGAIN bring up Lueke not being in that group. Further, he says it's a PR move. Well, duh? How stupid would it be for them to bring him up now to face all this crap? It has nothing to do with the Mariners saving face. It clearly has to do with not wanting to throw the kid into the firestorm that would follow. Further, Dave says, I’ve been told by several people in the game that they don’t think Lueke will ever pitch for the Mariners.... Fine, there are a lot of fans who don't think so either. But, lets apply a little logic. If the M's have no plans for Lueke to become a Mariner, why send him to the AFL? If the M's do trade him, what does that say about the M's front office? That they are less of a quality organization than another team willing to give Lueke the chance. Let's all be honest about one thing, it isn't the M's that are trying to force Lueke out. It's not their sense of "moral balance". It's fans and media who won't let go of this. If the M's do end up trading him, don't blame their moral values. Blame those in Seattle that can't allow someone the opportunity to redeem himself, not the M's as an organization. Plain and simple, people need to shut up about this, they need to stop speculating, and the M's need to step up and tell all of us that he's a Mariner. It is completely moral to grant someone the right to redeem themselves. It's less moral to deny him a living, based on conjecture. Okay, I'm off my soapbox. |
| 21. By: micahjr on 09-22-2010 14:50:51 I can think of one reason they would throw him into the AFL without the plan of bringing him up: to give him more showcase time. Just playing devil's advocate. I want to see this kid pitch. Everybody says he is the most talented bullpen arm in the system. Management has given him a fine line to walk. I hope they are good to their word and allow him the chance to walk it. My god, they need to change his picture! Go look at it! He looks like a sullen redneck rapist who beats up black and Mexican children with a tire iron on weekends. Changing his picture would be one of the better PR moves they could make. |
| 22. By: Missthosepilots on 09-22-2010 16:54:06 Thanks Chris. 2nd half alone not a great question as it is the whole that matters but with the minors figure that for the newbies there is the settling in period, strange surroundings, new teammates, etc. By the 2nd half they show more of who they hopefully really are. Those two, Seager and James both did have solid summer months! Hopefully only a shadow of next year! |
| 23. By: bunvt on 09-22-2010 18:06:08 Think any of the newer call ups, (not Smoak) will get a chance to start before season end? Mangini for Lopez perhaps? |
| 24. By: bavasisabum on 09-22-2010 19:55:36 Does anyone know much about Guillermo Pimentel and what kind of celling he's got. I saw he was just named the top prospect in the Arizona League by BBA. They mentioned his plus plus power. Thanks |
| 25. By: Chipanese on 09-22-2010 20:59:35 I'm a little surprised that Ji-man Choi got ranked so low in the top 20 AZL prospects. I was atleast expecting him to be ranked higher than Pimentel. Pimentel being ranked as #1 was a surprise in itself... |
| 26. By: subterranean on 09-22-2010 22:53:40 I think it is a little simplistic Edman, to say it is only the media and fans who are making the Lueke situation a "situation." In the Ussmariner fan poll, only 24% said they would not root for Lueke. Fans also have short term memories. And the media is writing about this story because it is a story. Because it does say a lot about this organization, not just from a moral standpoint but also in terms of the kind of communication that is going on. It also seems to me that there are people in the organization who do care that he has this record, because it does not jive with their "moral compass". Saying chuck armstrong only cares because of PR seems to be a big assumption. And I don't see why a team who may want to showcase a young talent for a trade, would not want to send him to the AFL. He is going to be good, and he is mlb ready, and the AFL gets him one step closer either with us or someone else. |
| 27. By: Jackson on 09-23-2010 01:32:46 "the M's need to step up and tell all of us that he's a Mariner." They did that with Don Wakamatsu. |
| 28. By: VikingArthur on 09-23-2010 02:09:02 If the Seattle Mariners trade Lueke I am done with this organization. Dude supposedly raped some skank...who cares? If he did or he didn't makes no difference. Can he get people out? Yes. That is all that matters. The moral high ground cheesy Mariners fans take is blown to shreds when you tell them that the driving forces behind the 2001 M's team was juiced to the gills (and if you don't know the guys I am talking about...consider yourself naive). To borrow a phrase from a Hall of Famer...JUST WIN BABY. |
| 29. By: VikingArthur on 09-23-2010 02:11:11 OR...we can sit around and eat orange slices and CapriSuns and sign little cheers to the team that just embarrassed us. Unfortunately, most Mariner "fans" would rather have a collection of pathetic cowards who are "good guys". |
| 30. By: Edman on 09-23-2010 04:33:59 #26, they wouldn't send him to the AFL if they didn't expect to use him themselves. Sure, he could be traded. But, he's not going to get anymore valuable than he already is, in a few extra weeks over the fall. It's not like he's going to suddenly burst out and be a greater prospect. Teams that would trade for him, know his value. The AFL is where teams send their best players to give them experience playing against stronger competition. They would likely send guys they see as future Mariners. |
| 31. By: gwangung on 09-23-2010 09:52:09 #28: Don't be offensive, guy. And let's not blame the victim. It IS a serious matter. But there's enough ambiguity to give Lueke the benefit of the doubt, I think. |
| 32. By: safecochatter on 09-23-2010 11:10:56 Lueke's story is milk toast compared to some over the years. check out "The Ron LeFlore Story" sometime. the Detroit Tigers recruited him out of Jackson prison. and the Detroit fans loved him. let's get back between the white lines... |
| 33. By: maqman on 09-23-2010 11:36:47 #24 Guillermo Pimentel: 20 years old from Dominican, 6'1", 190 pounds, OF, Bats/Throws R. The Ms reportedly signed him for $2MM last year. Hopefully they get their moneysworth out of him. |
| 34. By: micahjr on 09-23-2010 14:33:40 Guillermo Pimentel is a 17 year old. You probably saw the prospect of the same name in the Ranger's system on Baseball Reference; he is 20. Lueke's story is serious. The circumstances that happened would always be considered rape in Washington state, as the girl was in no state to give valid consent. In many states the rule is if they are too drunk to remember, then it isn't rape; which is crap. The only reason there was ever any question as to whether it was a rape, is that the laws vary from state to state, often placing the burden of proof on the victim. He's now a registered sex offender, and he has found or rediscovered God. I hope it works for him, and think that he should be given a second opportunity. |
| 35. By: PositivePaul on 09-24-2010 02:19:46 Actually, I believe the plea deal specifically allowed Lueke to avoid having to register as a sex offender. But that's no matter because whether or not he ever plays in Seattle you can be sure he'll always have this stigma hanging over his head. Especially being a 'celebrity' (aka MLB prospect/player), it's something that won't be forgotten. There's also a difference between getting arrested for taking a whizz in public (Cortes) and doing something to another person (especially against a woman). While the No Contest plea doesn't necessarily mean he's guilty of a crime (though legally it's the same), I think in this case he acknowledges he made a serious mistake and took responsibility for his actions (and apologized to the victim). The justice system (however rightly/wrongly) gave him his punishment and he's served it. This is a serious issue, one I'm not very quick to dismiss. While I certainly believe in giving people their chance for redemption, our society is far less quick to forgive for certain offenses, and Lueke's offense falls into this later category. Now that this issue has been megaphoned locally, and blown hugely out of proportion, I'm not so sure Lueke's going to get that chance of redemption. But he appears to be a good kid and he's certainly a HELL of a good pitcher. I really hope for everyone's sake there's a way to turn this into a positive. Because there are also a lot of women who for whatever reason are not strong enough to report rape, too. This case may not legally have been rape (we'll never really know) but it's pretty clear that there was enough evidence to warrant an arrest. Neither Josh nor the victim are too thrilled with the incident either, and that says a lot. Bottom line - at the very least it should open everyone's eyes to be more careful and not put ourselves in these sorts of situations. I'm with Larry Stone on this -- with the info I have and what I know as fact, I'm leaning towards giving Lueke a short leash and allowing him to continue to pitch for the Mariners. And I can respect the position of those people (including my own wife) who thinks he should find a different career that's not so high on a pedestal. Because for better or worse MLB players are looked at as role models. It's dumb, really, because their heroics come between the basepaths, but that can't be ignored either... |
| 36. By: PositivePaul on 09-24-2010 02:24:19 Aaaand going back to the topic of this post... As (likely) Poythress's biggest non-familial fan, even I recognize he's not at the top of the list. I'd give it to Nick Franklin, myself, for doing what he did in a league that's traditionally been tough for hitters. Ackley was expected to hit, and slumped for quite some time. Taking that into consideration, I'd nudge Franklin ahead of him myself, but really it's close enough that they're both pretty deserving. And, again, as a big Poythress fan, he's really a distant third. |
| 37. By: maqman on 09-24-2010 10:27:12 micahjr you are right about Pimentel. I thought 20 was old for a DR prospect worth $2MM. I Googled the name and took the wrong link, his is not an uncommon Latin name. Hopefully our version will turn out better than the Ranger's pick, looking good so far. |
| 38. By: on 09-24-2010 20:44:59 Okay a couple things... Grifol and McNamara are exagerating Chavez as a player because we got screwed in the Morrow for League/Chavez trade. If Morrow failed, he'd be Brandon League. He's clearly not, probably more of a #4 with aspirations of being a #3 unless he steps up and starts pitching deeper into games. The upside of Morrow being a #2/#3 and a worse case of being a late inning reliever, makes Chavez a joke unless he turns into a +3 WAR player annually. Franklin is over 3 years younger and was more successful at a level only 2 steps below Ackley. Nick was statistically the better player, played at a more advanced level for his age, and was a more complete player. Aside from the walks that Ackley drew and his improvement defensively at 2B, he had a very underwhelming year compared to the expectations we had for him entering the year as a 2nd overall pick, a future batting champ, and especially considering he was a top 15 prospect by everyone in the game. I rarely agree with anything Edman says, but he's right on the nose with his comments about the media and the blogs talking about Lueke too much. So what if 76% just want the best players on the field and don't care what Lueke did. The point still stands that this has been exagerated in the blogs and the press to Watergate porportions. Still talking about it, even to say it doesn't matter, still keeps this thing from going away and with the "Refuse to Abuse" campaign, they simply can't/won't put him in a Mariners uniform until this thing goes away and the focus is on his pitching and not what he does to entertain himself. |
| 39. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-24-2010 20:57:53 One final thing about the Lueke situation... I read the transcripts from the Lueke situation. As a law student, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that he didn't rape her. He made that plea because he had not a leg to stand on legally. When a girl gets raped she struggles, causing tissue damage. If it was consentual or she was sleeping, than there's no damage. How does he prove she wasn't sleeping and it was consentual? He's tall (6'5), in good shape (215 lbs.), doesn't look like Ja. Wilson or Randy Messenger, is likeable enough to have 2 guys from his team want to go drinking with him after the game, and he's a celebrity, even if only a minor leaguer. Guys like him don't rape girls, they have enough girls throwing themselves at them, they don't need to. Is it possible she was raped, sure. But she wasn't drunk when she went to have drinks with a stranger, whether baseball player, banker, or bum, she exhibits risky behavior. She was kissing other guys in the same night, usually the sign of a girl who doesn't need to be raped to have sex. I've been drunk with alcohol poisoning and never made a decision that I otherwise would not have made had I been sober. Also, I'm calling bullsh*t on some dude his size shoving his junk in her trunk and her not waking up, no matter how drunk she is. The key to this was that she met them at the game. Probably (99% sure) she thought she could become Mrs. Blahblah and when she found out he was only interested in having fun, she probably set him up thinking she'd get a big payday because most people are too stupid to realize that the players don't get millions until after they are in the majors except for the select few drafted with first round talent. Again, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts he didn't rape her. Seriously. He just took a plea that wouldn't ruin his life because he had a lawyer smart enough to know he couldn't talk his way out of this one. |
| 40. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 09-24-2010 21:11:35 The reason Lueke is in the AFL is so he's not a giveaway player. Unlike last year where they all but announced Morrow was being traded, they decided correctly that most teams will trade more for him if they think he's a building block of the Mariners. If he doesn't get a call-up to the majors and doesn't go to the AFL, it virtually guarantees the Mariners are shopping him and the return will be less to non-existent. Just him not being on the Mariners right now should send warning signs, but they can at least fall back on the AFL excuse for why he's not playing in Seattle to end the season. It probably also wasn't by accident that Lueke was on the celebration photo posted on the Mariners' farm system front page of their website after the AAA Championship. I also believe that the Mariners are allowed to replace Lueke in the AFL if he's traded to another team as they're allowed to maintain a total of 7 prospects in the Fall League. So probably they're already listening to offers now and will ship him off during the Fall League, so someone else can get a look. Here's to hoping we get more than Johermyn Chavez for him. |
| 41. By: petermag on 09-26-2010 10:33:45 Edman, Paul, and Subterranean, Re: Lueke I agree with all of your takes regarding Lueke. The reason the media and we are still talking about this is because the front office refuses to give a definitive show of support. Edman, while sending Lueke to afl doesn't increase his trade value, it definitely doesn't diminish it. Regardless of whether or not Lueke is in the longterm plans, the mariners need to move forward as though he is in order to maintain his value. Finally, I continue to be amazed at how smart the pi community is on here. I learn just as much reading through the comments as I do reading Chris and Jason and now Adam. Thanks everyone! |
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