| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-11-2010 |
If joined us for today's chat, joined us late, or missed us altogether, you can catch the entire replay below.
prospect-insider-chat----january-11,-2010
Comments
The following 65 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: DKulich44 on 01-11-2010 22:19:12 Thanks for the chat, sorry I missed it live, and good luck with the wedding planning! |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-11-2010 23:42:08 Thanks! |
| 3. By: Lamda on 01-12-2010 05:39:48 Good overall chat, thanks! I disagree with you about Lee having no chance of getting the extension. The M's can afford it but the bigger question is will he even want it? Z understand the great thing about having 2 "aces" on the team, he see's how arguably NYY and Bos have it and figures he needs it as well. Ofcourse this means the onus is on him then to continuously find young/cheap pitchers to fill the 3-5 spots but as we've seen - he's great at finding good/young talent with upsides. As the team gets better and better, more and more fans will come back thus allowing the team to put the payroll back in the 120mill range which will allow for them to keep both. Its always a flip of the coin though, time will tell. I was right on Gutz getting an extension so hopefully i'll be right on this one as well. |
| 4. By: SolusFood on 01-12-2010 06:43:33 Can you go into great detail why Tom McNamara is no good? I do not follow prep/draft baseball all that much (until recently), and it would be educational if you could explain exactly why Tom McNamara is not a good scouting director. |
| 5. By: Slack on 01-12-2010 07:42:35 Also, why have your thoughts changed on NIck Franklin? That sounds encouraging to me. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-12-2010 08:34:28 Lamda, If the M's sign Felix, Lee isn't re-signing here. Two 100 mil-ish pitchers on the same roster? It's not happening. And when you say "the M's can afford it" as part of your argument, you always lose. Of course they CAN afford it. But they won't. They can legitimately afford to spent 200 million on payroll every year -- seriously, they can -- but they don't, won't, and never will. |
| 7. By: jgstecker on 01-12-2010 10:31:18 We're gonna need the minor league talent that Lee will bring back when he leaves too. The Angels have something like five of the top 35 picks this year after landing 6 last year. Seattle's going to be hard pressed to keep up with them and the Rangers for the next few years. Lots of talk about Hudson in the chat. How much is he gonna cost? It shouldn't be too prohibitive, assuming Lopez's 2.5 million is shuffled off to some other club. Also, would there be room at the top of the order for Hudson? Our current catcher and shortstop should have a mortal lock on the 8-9 spots in the order and Hudson isn't a typical #7 hitter. I can forsee an "hit-Ichiro-third" campaign resurfacing. |
| 8. By: Edman on 01-12-2010 11:04:51 I can't see Ichiro batting second or third in the lineup. He hits too many hard groundball to be a #2 or #3 hitter. He needs to be in the lead-off position because of the kind of hitter he is. You don't want him hitting in to constant force-outs or double plays. |
| 9. By: mymrbig on 01-12-2010 11:10:43 Jason, you give us such great content, I want to give you some wedding planning advice. Smile and nod. Seriously. They say they want your input, but they don't. They just want you to agree with them. Smile and nod. Marriage is bliss, wedding planning ... is not. |
| 10. By: studentofthegame on 01-12-2010 11:38:16 Is Jonny Gomes an M's target? He seems like an under the radar type of guy that could be inexpensive. Does anyone think that he could be an addition? |
| 11. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-12-2010 12:07:49 Why not Xavier Nady? |
| 12. By: masonb on 01-12-2010 12:25:39 I second what #9 says Jason. Best to you and your future wife, and thanks so much for the hard work you do. |
| 13. By: studentofthegame on 01-12-2010 13:02:47 That is an idea too #11. There has been no news on him regarding the M's. He seems to have a similar skill set. I think it was Jason who mentioned that a bat may come but that it would not be a big name. Those two guys kind of fit that bill. |
| 14. By: dawgncarolina on 01-12-2010 13:08:15 Jason, I'd also like to hear why you're more optimistic regarding Franklin? As far as wedding advice goes, make sure whoever is conducting the wedding changes the names in the little book he's reading out of. Our guy (my former pastor and good friend) couldn't find a dry erase marker so he left the old names in. Kept calling my wife Jessica. Unfortunately, that's not her name. Made the wedding a bit awkward. |
| 15. By: Edman on 01-12-2010 13:35:12 Biggest rule of married life is to recognize when a question, it not really a question. Here are some examples: "Does this make me look fat?" This is not a question, it is a test. "Is that what you're wearing?" This is not a question, it is suggestion that you reconsider your wardrobe selection. "What do you think?" This is also a test. It's about guessing what she's thinking. She's already made up her mind, you now have the task to figure out what she's thinking. My OBP on this one is worse than Jose' Lopez. Congrats. Have fun agreeing to......errr, I mean, planning your wedding. |
| 16. By: masonb on 01-12-2010 13:40:37 Jason, What's the status of Wagner Mateo. Did he ever sign after the Cardinals voided his contract and if not, do you think there is a chance the Mariners try to sign him? |
| 17. By: shemberry on 01-12-2010 13:56:11 #14. I am a Pastor and I have done over 125 weddings. I constantly live in fear of that exact scenario. I used to have a book that had been erased 50 times, now I type out the whole ceremony and never deviate from my notes. I don't want to be the butt of jokes in some family for the rest of their lives as they watch their wedding video and ask why I didn't know their names. |
| 18. By: chrisd on 01-12-2010 13:59:42 I also believe that Jack intends to sign Lee to a log term contract. And he is using this possibility to lore in Felix saying" We are willing to do whatever it takes to be a winner even trading for and signing Lee to a long term contract. " Felix will only sign if he knows that Seattle will be a winner and that is what Jack Z will make happen. That is why the Defense, the best in ML's, will also draw in felix. He would not sign unless Jack was here doing these things and he will be successful at winning and signing Felix and Lee. And maybe Carl Crawford or an all star 1B, like Fielder or someone else. If this management spent 40+ M on Silva, they will allow $ to be spent on quality. |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-12-2010 14:11:27 mymrbig, not in this house... If I say I really don't want something, we cross it off the list. Goes both ways. Pretty cool, huh? |
| 20. By: Edman on 01-12-2010 14:30:42 chrisd, trying to use the "Silva" arguement is a bit silly. If you apply that, then they'd sign nobody for fear it would turn out like Carlos.....not that they now have the ability to throw money down the toilet. |
| 21. By: 200tang on 01-12-2010 14:47:18 Bringing up the Silva signing when talking about JackZ seems pointless...since you know...he had nothing to do with it. |
| 22. By: Galway on 01-12-2010 15:19:29 Jason you poor bastard you have so much knowledge but much to learn. It never goes both ways, it seems like it does but it really just keeps going around the world and one day hits you in the back of the head when you least expect it. Thanks for the time on the chat, and congratulations on the wedding |
| 23. By: Galway on 01-12-2010 15:20:01 Jason you poor bastard you have so much knowledge but much to learn. It never goes both ways, it seems like it does but it really just keeps going around the world and one day hits you in the back of the head when you least expect it. Thanks for the time on the chat, and congratulations on the wedding |
| 24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-12-2010 15:33:24 Perhaps you guys just aren't as lucky as I am. As for Nick Franklin, the only bad part of his presence is the lack of the presence of three or four better prospects the Mariners could have drafted instead. All of them have more upside with less risk. Seems like a no-brainer. But Franklin is a good player with the kind of makeup we've seen in guys like Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Jay Buhner, Dustin Pedroia, et al. |
| 25. By: Jerry on 01-12-2010 15:41:42 Jason, Sorry I missed the chat. One name that you don't hear much that could be interesting: Rick Ankiel. I am not sure that he would be a huge improvement over Saunders, as they are sorta similar players. However, Ankiel would give the M's a bit of power and plus defense. And Ankiel is one of the rare players who has upside at age 30. I am not sure he would be a big enough improvement over Saunders to warrant acquiring him. But he does have an interesting mix of defense and power. I think he is definitely a name to keep in mind. If the M's could get him on a 1 year deal, it would be a pretty smart move. |
| 26. By: mymrbig on 01-12-2010 15:46:40 Jason, glad to hear your fiance is so great. My wife is awesome, but wedding planning was a whole different ballgame. She (and her mom) had in their minds what they wanted for the wedding and didn't want me intruding too much. I learned quick! Also, just saw that Brandon Jones was designated for assignment by the Braves. Any thoughts on him as a potential option? He's kind of struggled with LHP the last couple years at AAA, but is a former top prospect and has done well against RHP. Probably not a guy the M's would look at unless they really want to send Saunders back to AAA for another year, but he has always intrigued me. Is he just a AAA guy or tweener at this point? |
| 27. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-12-2010 16:38:06 Jones isn't very good. He's AAA fodder if ya need it. Jerry, Ankiel's name has been out there a ton -- KC and Detroit were interested early, backed off, thanks to Boras' demands of a two-year deal. Pittsburgh was on Ankiel until Church signed. He's not the defender Saunders is, however, had a horrible year in 2009 due to shoulder problems that may not be kosher come spring -- it sapped his power. He's also 30, like you said, and about 25 in terms of being a hitter. There is no development left, really. |
| 28. By: SolusFood on 01-12-2010 17:10:30 Hey Jason, I left a comment earlier asking about Tom McNamara and why you don't think he's right for the job. I sincerely just want to know why because you sounded pretty negative in the chat. A quick cursory search shows that he was the main scout behind Prince Fielder, and while I am obviously not trying to say that one pick makes him great, if you could elaborate on why you don't think he's a good scouting director, that would be appreciated. |
| 29. By: Rudolf on 01-12-2010 18:42:18 You're definitely not the only one with an amiable wife. Mine's pretty hot, too. |
| 30. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-12-2010 19:51:42 SolusFood, Crediting McNamara for Fielder is like giving Mark Baca credit fot the Nationals signing of Stephen Strasburg. I can't really comment much further on McNamara other than to say his track record is NOT stellar like you'd want your SD's to be, and he's on the top of the ladder of executives that fired a scout during a game in which they'd assigned the scout to work. That's as shoddy as it gets and sent some shock waves throughout the scouting world, though it was NOT talked about in the media because nobody knew. |
| 31. By: lfglove on 01-12-2010 19:52:52 #19 I'm lucky like that Jason. I can usually tell when she really likes something and I agree with her to make her happy. I know she does the same to me. But that's what it takes to make it work.................Compromise! |
| 32. By: safecochatter on 01-13-2010 01:23:40 it does get a little more intense as the wedding gets closer. i had 3 haircuts in the final week,cause she wanted it just right... jason - more and more parents are holding there kids back a year in school. if your scouting a prep kid is a little more slack cut for the 17 year old or is he judged on the same level as a prep quickly approaching 19. also when u and the wife have a jr would u hold him back one year to better compete in hs sports? |
| 33. By: acqb1424 on 01-13-2010 09:16:13 Jason, Congrats on the wedding planning and good luck! Sounds as if you've found yourself a great woman! Can you speak at all on your article that has been mentioned by USS Mariner that will be included in the book they are pushing? Obviously all of your stuff is a great read, but I'm wondering if something similiar will be included in the handbook? Thanks. |
| 34. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-13-2010 11:40:13 safecochatter, It certainly matters that a kid is younger than his peers and still sticks out, yes. But I would not hold my kid back for sports, no chance. acqb1424, The Ackley piece is a little longer feature broken down into sections of where Ackley came from, why he was the No. 2 pick, what makes him unique, etc. Most of you have heard all of that stuff from me on Ackley already. |
| 35. By: John_S on 01-13-2010 13:04:15 Jason, What do you think of the Phillies plans to have Aumont go back into the starting rotation? |
| 36. By: CrimsonNW on 01-13-2010 13:38:39 I'll jump in. Congrats Jason! I won't give any advice as I'm only 21 and not even close to marriage yet. But... it sounds like you two are on the right track. Back to baseball, did you see Arnold's piece on Ackley? It really seems like this organization sees him as a second baseman at the moment. Is this permanent? How does he project at the position athletically? Thanks. |
| 37. By: jd7979 on 01-13-2010 14:40:41 Could the M's be the team mlbtraderumors.com is repoting are making an offer to Rich Hill? Is he any upgrade over RRS, Snell, or the other rotation candidates? |
| 38. By: JohnMcD on 01-13-2010 14:42:13 I hope not. Apparently Branyan isn't coming back. What now? |
| 39. By: 200tang on 01-13-2010 15:26:58 What do you mean what now? Wasn't that the plan for the past month? I don't see it changing anything. |
| 40. By: Edman on 01-13-2010 15:29:15 I doubt that Rich Hill is coming to Seattle, unless it's as a NRI. They have three similar pitchers, in Vargas, Olsen and French. Branyan is no real shock. I like him and wish he could have returned, but realistically, there are other options that aren't that much different, other than handedness, in some cases. I would love to see Scott in Seattle, but Baltimore has to want to trade him. Garko is a possibility. Both can play the outfield in a pinch. And, Thome could provide the same thing Branyan did last year, if they wanted to go that way. I will miss Branyan's mammoth homeruns. The guy can hit them a long way. |
| 41. By: CrimsonNW on 01-13-2010 15:45:24 Bummer about Branyan. I was really hoping to see him back as a DH. As for Rich Hill? Please no. I've always liked the guy until last season. That was just brutal. He still racked up the K's though. I'd still prefer Fister or Vargas over him though. |
| 42. By: safecochatter on 01-13-2010 15:56:42 looking for nfl mock drafts,stumbled across a guy who also had his 2010 mlb mock up. trying to hit the mariner pick at 18 would have the same odds as hitting the lotto. since the preps and college seasons are yet to play. but i did notice lots of 3b and ss in this mock that went 81 picks. and almost barren of first basemen. is that the way you are seeing it start to shape up? and the mariner pick at 18? Nick Castellanos a 6'4" 200lb 3b.a prep player in florida. |
| 43. By: eRic11 on 01-13-2010 16:00:58 I think the M's are better off at this point to move on. To put the best defensive team out on the field Saunders needs to play full time in LF, Bradley at DH (knowing that he can play the corner OF spots) and Kotchman at 1B. The team is about ready with the exception of the need of a legit mid-rotation. |
| 44. By: eRic11 on 01-13-2010 16:03:38 The team is about ready with the exception of the need of a legit mid-rotation addition. |
| 45. By: JohnMcD on 01-13-2010 16:12:04 200 tang: I agree with you, but I am just thinking Russell was probably at least thought about in the future. My guess is he is not healthy enough. Any takers on who hits the most HR this season? |
| 46. By: masonb on 01-13-2010 16:26:38 #42 If I'm not mistaken, and anyone can correct me on this, but the #18 pick goes to the Angels since we got Figgins. Castellanos if I'm not mistaken is one of the top 2-3 high school players in the country right now, but of course alot could change between now and June |
| 47. By: Edman on 01-13-2010 17:11:31 Yep, our pick goes to the Angels. |
| 48. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-13-2010 18:07:23 "Any takers on who hits the most HR this season?" ------------------------------------------------------- Lopez with 19. Sad :^( |
| 49. By: DRWheelock on 01-13-2010 19:05:23 We desperately need another POWER bat, and I was really hoping Z would step up and land Vlad instead of Texas getting him. I'm actually impressed with what Texas has done despite losing Millwood, and think they will be VERY good this year. They got a GREAT bullpen, big HR offense, and halfway decent SP (hoping Harden fails now). They are definitely going to be tough to beat this year, but on the other end you can bet they will take a number of games away from the Angels this year. In my book Z has an incredible foundation laid for us to build on: 1) Incredible SP 2) Great Bullpen 3) Awesome ERA rolling over from last year, and liquidating all of our problem pitchers 4) GREAT OBP now 5) GREAT & INCREDIBLE Defense at 6) Great speed in Ichiro & Figgins 7) Best 1-2 SPs in any rotation out there 8) Best 1-2 hitters in any lineup out there AND after the estimated arbitration raises and/or the Felix Extension...we should still have a $80-85M payroll going into April. Somehow someway we need Z to pull off a miracle and somehow land Fielder OR Gonzo. I know Jason doesn't think we have the prospects to pull it off, but if somehow Z pulls a rabbit out and does land one of them we'd STILL be way under our 2009 payroll amount! I'd love Cabrera from Detroit for 1B, but taking on that kind of salary $22M/year would put us out of the running from probably signing Felix and/or Lee. I think right now we have what it takes to win the West "barely" if our cards are played just right, but "if" we truly want to win in 2010 we need that Fielder/Gonzo "TYPE" player in the middle of our lineup. |
| 50. By: DRWheelock on 01-13-2010 19:10:24 I read over at MLBTradeRumors that the Nats want to offer Orlando Hudson a 1yr deal for around $3.75M, and if not then move on to Kennedy for 2B. I'd love to get him for under $4M, but you pull Lopez out of our lineup "now" we have ZERO power threat, and when Lopez is your highest potential HR guy on your team...thats pretty sad. |
| 51. By: fresnofan on 01-13-2010 20:08:36 49- we dont have a great bullpen. Its only average-ish. Im not too worried about the fact that Lopez may very well be our best power hitter. Power is just an aspect of hitting, not something you cant survive without. As long as we have good hitters who do well in things like getting on base for example, power isnt a focus. You can put together a good offense without a 30+ HR hitter. Dont get me wrong, it would be of help to improve our offense, but theres more to hitting than just power. |
| 52. By: Jackson on 01-13-2010 20:12:47 How do you figure $80M-85M? According to the link below, we were already at $86M before acquiring Casey Kotchman. http://prospectinsider.com/view/what%27s-still-out-there/ |
| 53. By: Uncle Al on 01-13-2010 23:04:00 The $86M includes $6M for Getting rid of Silva and $1M for getting rid of Betancourt and is strictly salary W/O the Prorated Bonuses of $2.7M and Contingency Fund of $3.75M. Total amount committed on the 2010 budget is now $93.5M. |
| 54. By: pwhit44 on 01-14-2010 03:00:35 Sorry for being the language police, but could we stop using quotation marks and capitalized words for emphasis? We can read what you're typing. If you can't express what you'd like to, maybe you shouldn't be writing things. (If you are a fourth grader and don't know any better, I'm sorry. Don't mind me and keep it comin'.) |
| 55. By: Edman on 01-14-2010 11:08:43 pwhit........Neither bothers me, it's how chatting on the internet works. Note to Adam LaRoche: Evaluate the Free Agency market, before you make unrealistic demands. He didn't get three year, nor anywhere $10 million a season. The scramble for work now gets serious. |
| 56. By: universalguru on 01-14-2010 11:19:37 It's been a weird year... seeing Pudge and Lyon get a bunch, but other pretty good values. I'd have loved LaRoche at $4-5 for one year. Looks like the moment we and San Francisco left the market his options tanked. He should have aken the Giants deal, but you live you learn. I'd get a new agent though. At that price, I wish the M's would have re-considered him though, even with Kotchmann. |
| 57. By: Edman on 01-14-2010 11:28:26 Kotchman and LaRoche are a wash, at worse. Kotchman, IMO, is more likely to be better than his numbers last year. LaRoche will have to work hard to be as good as he was last year. MLB Rumors is indicating Seattle is talking to Tatis about being a utility player. As a replacement for Hall, I wouldn't be upset. He's a better hitter. |
| 58. By: universalguru on 01-14-2010 13:44:51 Tatis is significantly better than Hall offensively and an upgrade defensively in some respects. I'd still prefer another starting bat but wouldn't complain about this deal. Jason, if the M's signed Tatis or someone similar and Saunders clearly wins the starting LF job out of spring training would the M's be opposed to sending Langerhans down to Tacoma? I'm a big Langerhans fan to be honest, but I don't know how else we could make it work. Saunders would be the everyday LF and could back-up Gutierrez in center (letting Bradley and Tatis play left). Or would they jsut be better off letting Saunders play everyday in AAA no matter what? |
| 59. By: Edman on 01-14-2010 14:00:33 Not speaking for Jason, but I don't think there's any value in giving Saunders limited ABs at the major league level. Where ever he plays, he needs to start at least 5 games a week. He needs ABs, more than he needs major league experience, at this point in his career. He got some experience last year, so he has a better idea what to work on if he goes to Tacoma. |
| 60. By: universalguru on 01-14-2010 14:21:13 I'm specifically asking if Saunders would start everyday at the major league level (with a HUGE spring). That would make Bradley a back-up OF and the right-handed DH platoon w/ Griffey. Tatis (or a similar player) would be the super-utility guy. Hannahan would be the other back-up infielder (unless the team's more comfortable with Josh Wilson, seeing as Tatis or a similar player could possibly play 1B and 3B). Langerhans would fall to AAA. If Langerhans ends up on the ML team than LF would be mroe of a rotation between him, Bradley and whoever else they pick up. I know Langerhans has a ML contract. |
| 61. By: Edman on 01-14-2010 14:42:17 I think in most cases, any young player who has a huge spring will get a serious look. It's particularly true when there's not veteran to displace. I don't think Langerhans, Hannahan, or any similar guy on the roster has any sort of a guarantee. Langerhans probably has a slight advantage, in that keeping him on the ML roster allows Saunders to be in Tacoma. He prevents rushing someone to the ML roster, simply to fill a hole. |
| 62. By: vandal08 on 01-14-2010 17:57:21 Jason will the Josh Johnson extension (4 year 39 million) affect the negotiations going on with felix? |
| 63. By: Edman on 01-14-2010 18:46:45 Johnson had two years of eligibility left. Felix is a free agent after the end of 2010. So, I'm guessing that a deal with Felix on a four year deal, will likely exceed $50 million, and probably exceed $60 million. |
| 64. By: universalguru on 01-14-2010 19:13:45 Edman, I think you mean Felix is a free agent after the 2011 season, not 2010. |
| 65. By: Edman on 01-14-2010 19:21:44 It's been a long day....LOL. |
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