| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 06-01-2011 |
This week's prospect intel includes the long-promised Next 10, with four additional contenders for the mid-season Top 30 report, notes from the organization on the Dustin Ackley transition to second base, an idea of when James Paxton may be promoted -- and where to -- an update on Mauricio Robles and Jose Valdivia, where Jose Campos and Jordan Shipers will be pitching soon and more.
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prospect-intel:-june-1,-2011
Comments
The following 54 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Gustafson on 06-01-2011 07:20:35 Great info all the way around!! About Catricala, will he likely be in mid-season 30? All in all, this was a great report, Jason. |
| 2. By: dawgncarolina on 06-01-2011 07:46:47 Add Paxton and you've now got the top 45 prospects in the system. Great stuff. Thanks Jason. |
| 3. By: dewey on 06-01-2011 09:39:22 Seems like Bob Engle and his group of scouts our knocking it dead down in Latin America im sure glad we have him. |
| 4. By: rjfrik on 06-01-2011 11:20:32 Here that Dewey. That guy is the jewel of the front office. Without him we would be royally screwed. All you have to do is look at our top players and where they came from. Keep it up Bob! |
| 5. By: Edman on 06-01-2011 11:30:06 Jason, any word on why Steven Pryor has struggled so badly this year? His numbers are way off from even the most cynical expectation. Moran has struggled to, but seemed to have improved lately. |
| 6. By: slamcactus on 06-01-2011 11:41:52 Love Engle obviously, but man it'd be nice if our Latin American contingent could develop a bona fide major league bat one of these days. This is in no way a criticism of the department. They're great, and they play a game that has very long odds to begin with, and just haven't had a major hit yet (and obviously, Felix and Pineda more than justify the entire international budget for the decade by themselves). It'd just be nice to see us get a quality bat one of these days. Jose Lopez wasn't exactly a satisfying return as the only Latin American position player we've developed into a major leaguer. |
| 7. By: baseballman on 06-01-2011 11:51:12 Great writeup as always JAC |
| 8. By: dawgncarolina on 06-01-2011 12:28:11 Slam, I know you mean for us, but Asdrubal gives them at least a partial notch in their belt. But I agree, it would be nice if we could turn one of the plethora of Latin bats into one worthwhile Mariner. I haven't given up on Triunfel yet, and Mario Martinez has returned to mildly interesting status (though his plate discipline is less than promising), but the best bet appears to be one of the lottery tickets like Pimentel. It seems like the odds are that one of them will hit, eventually. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-01-2011 12:53:06 Reminder -- Engle is the international scouting director, his efforts are not limited to Latin America. He deserves as much credit for Choo, for example, as he does for Cabrera, Felix, Pineda. So really that's two all-star caliber position players. And it'a also more than most clubs. These kids fail a lot. |
| 10. By: Lailoken on 06-01-2011 13:01:01 I don't know if Betancourt qualifies entirely as a MLB-player or as developed by the Mariners but I'm sure Engle had a hand in signing Yuni. Too bad he & Lopez couldn't stay on reasonable diets. |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-01-2011 13:11:13 I feel much better about the current group of Lat Am bats than the group that included Lopez, however. Castillo, Martin Peguero, Morban, Triunfel ... |
| 12. By: Juan Valdez on 06-01-2011 13:24:05 Given his numbers and that he is at AA, I would think that Erasmo Ramirez would at least get a mention. I'm curious why he is so completely off the radar in terms of prospect status. Is it all smoke and mirrors? |
| 13. By: dawgncarolina on 06-01-2011 13:39:45 Agreed Jason. You could also include Pimentel, Calderon, Martinez, Birin and Morla (though he's been awful this year). It just feels like we'll see someone succeed, maybe a couple. Plus you can add in Liddi and Halman from the non-Latin international side. I don't count Peguero because I think Peguero sucks. At least Halman brings speed and defense with his two true outcomes. |
| 14. By: slamcactus on 06-01-2011 13:40:03 I'm well aware, Jason, and I completely agree. Engle's a great scout, and he's signed guys who've turned into very good players, both pitchers and hitters. But all of the guys who've remained in-system seem to have a fatal flaw that will prevent them from becoming big-leaguers. Like I said, it's a feeling, not a criticism. The team is doing everything right with international scouting. It'd just be nice to see a latin american signing turn into a good Mariner hitter. |
| 15. By: maqman on 06-01-2011 13:43:04 Guillermo Pimentel and Johan Limonta are interesting Latino bats. |
| 16. By: FWBrodie on 06-01-2011 13:58:33 Great news about Robles. I was just starting to wonder the other day because the original report was that he'd be back throwing in a month, I think it's been about three. |
| 17. By: slamcactus on 06-01-2011 15:13:25 There are plenty of interesting Latino bats. But the only ones who've ever played as regulars for the Ms under Engle are Lopez and Betancourt, who were both disappointing. Pimentel is obviously interesting. As are Triunfel, E. Peguero, Castillo, Morban, Guerrero, Morla, and many others. But all these guys are pretty severe longshots, and none has established himself as a current top prospect. Not sure why you brought up Limonta. He's more of a longshot for a long major league career than Carlos Peguero. He's a 27-year-old 1B with a career .830 OPS. Pretty much the definition of organizational filler, interesting pretty much only because he came from Cuba. |
| 18. By: Juan Valdez on 06-01-2011 16:55:12 Limonta is interesting. Not much power but at least he can hit the baseball. |
| 19. By: rjfrik on 06-01-2011 18:03:25 Jason has an awesome article up about Lindor over at his other site. Makes me really, really, really want the kid. I think my top three as of today are Lindor, Bundy, Rendon. |
| 20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-01-2011 18:53:10 There are a lot of teams that don't produce latin bats. What has Cleveland produced in this manner? San Francisco? San Diego? Philly? Pitt? Some of those teams haven;t even produced an impact pitcher. And the M's have. Getting bats is tough, especially in today's game where power and patience go hand in hand. Have to get on base. Latin players don't have that traditional approach. They STILL aren't taught to be selective and work deep counts. Just not to swing at bad pitches. And just because they didn't get to use them, Choo and Cabrera count for Engle. |
| 21. By: Bmoney1082 on 06-01-2011 19:04:04 Hi, Jason I just purchased a year subscription. I keep getting a access denial to subscriber content, please help. Thanks |
| 22. By: rjfrik on 06-01-2011 19:40:16 Exactly Jason. Engle was kicking and screaming not to let Cabrera go. The guy knows how to evaluate talent. That's three All-Stars (with Pineda showing he could be added to that list) and a CY Young. That's how you build a team. Engle is doing his job just fine, if not better then anyone else in the business and I couldn't be more thrilled he's a Mariner. |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-01-2011 21:06:01 Bmoney1082, There is one step of the process you have not completed. Once you do, I can take care of you. |
| 24. By: Edman on 06-01-2011 21:07:04 LOL.....don't you think "kicking and screaming" might have been a little bit over-stated? We get it, now let's not go back down that alley. Anyone who follows baseball closely, knows how good Bob Engle is. |
| 25. By: Edman on 06-01-2011 21:17:04 I was thinking about it earlier today, then Geoff Baker brought up the idea of swapping out Carp and Peguero. Even if Carp doesn't hit all that well, he can at least work a damn pitch count. Saunders doesn't swing at hitable pitches often enough, and Peguero would strikout swinging during an intentional walk. It's not a great alternative, but it's not like Carp could be that much a defensive liability, when compared to Carlos. Peguero now has some experience to take with him back to Tacoma. Maybe he'll learn from it and work hard to get back. |
| 26. By: Bmoney1082 on 06-01-2011 21:26:26 What step do I still need to complete? |
| 27. By: Bmoney1082 on 06-01-2011 21:35:02 NM, Im in. THX |
| 28. By: slamcactus on 06-01-2011 22:28:03 "And just because they didn't get to use them, Choo and Cabrera count for Engle." I know. I tried to make it clear that I wasn't criticizing Engle. By saying like 3 times that I wasn't criticizing Engle. It's a game with long odds. It's possible both to recognize that the guy in charge is awesome and to wish that we'd gotten a little luckier with his signings. |
| 29. By: slamcactus on 06-01-2011 22:34:40 "It's not a great alternative, but it's not like Carp could be that much a defensive liability, when compared to Carlos." Yes, he could be. And would be. He's slower, his routes are just as bad, and has a much weaker arm. Carp's a pretty bad defensive 1B. There's absolutely no reason to believe he'd be capable of playing LF in a big park like Safeco. He'd be Adam Dunn-level bad out there. |
| 30. By: Edman on 06-01-2011 22:41:35 The ultimate choice would be to get a legit outfielder to fill the void, without trading away a valuable prospect. |
| 31. By: rth1986 on 06-02-2011 01:03:04 I'm not completely convinced that Cust is better than Carp at this point, so I'd be willing to give Carp at 2-week trial in LF to see how his bat translates in the majors. In the meantime, the M's should be evaluating Cust and trying to acquire a legitimate LF (Angel Pagan, please). |
| 32. By: rth1986 on 06-02-2011 01:04:57 Also, I wonder if the Rockies would accept a deal based around Figgins, money, a couple B-level prospects for Ian Stewart. |
| 33. By: zeuswsu on 06-02-2011 02:01:37 I agree with Edman, at this point Carp has a good chance at being more valuable then the zeros we are putting in left field. It's worth a try and we'll know pretty quickly if he's worth keeping there. There must be a reason he keeps playing LF in Tacoma, I'm thinking the Mariners maybe are thinking the same thing. Obviously he isn't the long time answer there and eventually he would have to eventually move to DH if he kept up his current Tacoma pace (Obviously not likely to keep up his pace from Tacoma). But in a perfect world....if Ackley and Carp were brought up and kept up their offensive productions at the 2nd and LF spots that would be pretty awesome. That probably won't happen, but why not give it a chance? The current offense is stuttering, I don't see what changing it up a bit could hurt? |
| 34. By: zeuswsu on 06-02-2011 02:08:09 "Yes, he could be. And would be. He's slower, his routes are just as bad, and has a much weaker arm. Carp's a pretty bad defensive 1B. There's absolutely no reason to believe he'd be capable of playing LF in a big park like Safeco. He'd be Adam Dunn-level bad out there." Not sure Adam Dunn is much worse then Peguero. No doubt Carp would suck in LF but we might as well see if he can produce there, the M's really don't have many other options. If he can hit at all, it seems like he would be better then the M's current options. If they bring him up this year and Carp doesn't hit AGAIN then we know he isn't the answer. I just think he deserves the chance. |
| 35. By: baseballman on 06-02-2011 02:13:09 Has Carp ever played in the OF? For all this talk about putting Carp in LF, I'm surprised no one has brought up the idea of putting Cust in LF and have Carp DH. At least Cust has played multiple games in the OF the past few years. |
| 36. By: dawgncarolina on 06-02-2011 02:31:57 35 - Carp's played the OF almost exclusively this year. I'm inclined to agree with slam's assessment of Carp's range, but as I said on another board, I'm all for giving him a shot. Peguero is, predictably, awful. He belongs nowhere near a big-league team. I'd feel a lot better about Carp if Safeco's left field wasn't so huge, but I'd be willing to try it out for a week or so. The presence of Mike Saunders, late inning defensive replacement, lessens my concern a touch. I think it's an experiment that will probably fail, but from the perspective that Carp's total value will probably be nothing greater than replacement (and perhaps a smidge below). But then, Wilson + Peguero are already a combined -0.7 below replacement value, so Carp would have to do tremendously awful to be any worse. I'd give him a look. Anything to get Peguero back in the minors where he belongs. |
| 37. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-02-2011 04:21:57 I feel much better about the current group of Lat Am bats than the group that included Lopez, however. Castillo, Martin Peguero, Morban, Triunfel ... Jason, if I can ask...who is Martin Peguero? Is this a VZL name that's a recent signee? I know of Esteilon Peguero, but is this someone different? Or is it Esteilon Peguero and someone with the last name of Martin (whom I don't know) accidentally lumped together? Sorry for me getting confused... |
| 38. By: dawgncarolina on 06-02-2011 07:09:01 Rocketdawg,, not Jason, but I can tell you that Esteilon is the middle name Martin Esteilon Peguero. No one seemed to know this until well after he signed. But there is no new prospect you're unaware of, it's the same guy. |
| 39. By: safecochatter on 06-02-2011 09:12:48 Cardinals have 5 solid outfielders. well,four,as holliday seems headed to the dl. but when he gets back i'd make a run at Allen Craig or Rasmus. if m's are willing to part with an arm and an infield prospect.ok maybe two prospects in a Rasmus deal.but the Cards got to be thinking about dealing one of them .. |
| 40. By: rjfrik on 06-02-2011 11:03:20 A interesting read on ESPN about the worst top ten picks in the last ten years in the MLB draft. Here is how you supplant yourself in gutter for over a decade. 2. Wade Townsend, Baltimore Orioles, 2005 (No. 8 overall) 4. Chris Smith, LHP, Baltimore Orioles, 2001 (No. 7 overall) 6. Billy Rowell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles, 2006 (No. 9 overall) 8. Matt Hobgood, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, 2009 (5th overall) Jesus that is bad. Thank god I'm not an Orioles fan. I don't know if I could put up with that type of ineptitude from an owner and front office. |
| 41. By: Edman on 06-02-2011 13:10:26 See rjfrik, there are worst teams at drafting players, than the Mariners. All hope is not lost. |
| 42. By: maqman on 06-02-2011 13:12:39 There will be changes soon and Carp will probably be involved, they have been playing him in LF for a reason. Ackley might be involved, if not he'll be up within two weeks. |
| 43. By: rjfrik on 06-02-2011 13:28:58 Edman, I really commend Jack and his drafts so far. In my opinion he really hasn't missed (I only disagreed with one 1st round pick) and last year was a GREAT DRAFT for us. My issues were mostly with the previous regime. But that idiot is out and I couldn't be happier. |
| 44. By: Mackie on 06-02-2011 13:51:47 What rjfrik said. Can't say how glad I am that the previous regime is no longer running things. And can't wait for Monday!! The draft looks pretty deep. If it is one of the generally-agreed-upon top four or five players they pick, I think it will be hard to find fault with whoever the M's choose at #2. If they don't pick Rendon I'm sure a lot of people will howl because Rendon plays 3B and he is supposed to be close to major-league ready, etc. But Zduriencik has already said the M's won't draft for need but will draft the best player available. If they think Rendon is the best, fine. But if not, I'm sure a lot of people will be critical. I won't be too worried if they don't take Rendon, because I trust that Zduriencik can find someone better than Chone Figgins to play 3B for the M's between now and next year, whether it is done through a trade or a free-agent signing. It seems there are lots of players out there in MLB who could represent an upgrade over Figgins at 3B at this point. So why not go for one of those players, and then draft a kid like Lindor and let him develop? |
| 45. By: rjfrik on 06-02-2011 13:54:28 Interesting tidbit from Keith Law's chat today. Looks like it's going to be a very interesting debate come Monday! Down to Rendon vs Lindor? Looks possible. Pat (Seattle) The Mariners are taking Rendon for sure right? How far away is he from being major league ready? September call-up 2012? Klaw (2:03 PM) I don't think it's certain, but it's by far the most likely. They like Starling, they like Lindor (specifically their scouting director likes Lindor), but I doubt they pass on Rendon. |
| 46. By: dawgncarolina on 06-02-2011 14:59:02 Rendon has to be there. I'm still scared of the Pirates wising up and taking him, in which case I guess I'll talk myself into being excited about Lindor. I do like that he's a switch hitter. |
| 47. By: StandinPat on 06-02-2011 15:26:14 "I'm surprised no one has brought up the idea of putting Cust in LF" I'm not. He's god awful out there. There is a reason he's a DH. Huge LF at Safeco + Career -22.4 UZR/150 OF in Cust = Not something any of us wants to see. "Has Carp ever played in the OF?" Carp has spent time in the OF every year since 2008, including 138 games in LF. "they have been playing him in LF for a reason" Yes, and that reason is get him ABs, and has absolutely zero with anyone in the org thinking LF is his position of the future. The past couple of years the Rainier's have had a glut of 1B/DH types, Carp was just the least horrible option for LF. |
| 48. By: edandvick1313@msn.com on 06-02-2011 15:56:37 Jason...I have the same problem as Bmoney. I can't get into subcribed info after logging in. |
| 49. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-02-2011 17:59:29 Re: #38. Thanks for the clarification, dawgncarolina. Very appreciated! Yeah, I didn't know that "Esteilon" was a middle name. My 411 on Peguero is very precursory...like H/W and that he's a righty bat that probably doesn't stick as a shortstop long-term. That's about it. |
| 50. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-02-2011 18:17:35 As far as the draft goes, I totally confess...I don't have the slightest clue how all this is going to turn out. Everybody's board seems all over the place, not getting any clear signals. Pittsburgh could select any one of a handful of players, and it would make me go "Huh. Didn't see that coming, 100%." And I don't care about not knowing for sure until June 6th. With Zduriencik and McNamara at the helm, I'm thinking this is just about a "no-lose" scenario. I have full faith that they will (at the very least) get us someone who will be a strong case for the second-most talented player in the draft. And if they did their homework (we know they did), and have some luck? They may just get us THE BEST player in the draft. I'm chillaxing on this until Monday. |
| 51. By: John_S on 06-02-2011 18:36:49 Jason, In addition to Lindor, do you know what other draft prospects worked out for the M's? |
| 52. By: rjfrik on 06-02-2011 18:44:56 Exactly Rocket. Z and Mac are a great 1, 2 punch in evaluating domestic talent. I have no issues at all with who they choose. As long as they don't have any limitations (ie. money) then they have a great track record at choosing wisely. |
| 53. By: 36148 on 06-02-2011 20:28:38 32: "Also, I wonder if the Rockies would accept a deal based around Figgins, money, a couple B-level prospects for Ian Stewart." Now you're talkin'....I'd be for Wilson Betemit also. (Moustakos is pending...) |
| 54. By: Apostle on 06-03-2011 06:27:10 #26, BMoney... Have you e-mailed Jason? I think his instructions on subscribing are pretty simple. Shoot him in an e-mail. |
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