| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 03-05-2009 |
During the season, we'll take a look at three prospects in the game; one that's big-league ready, one that's either turning the corner toward proving his worth as a legit premium prospect or may be showing the world that he's not, and one raw, developing prospect in the lower minors with a lot of risk but high reward attached.The prospects will not all be in the same organization, but to give you an example, let's use the M's system.
Big-league Ready: Michael Saunders, LF/RF
Turning the Corner?: Carlos Triunfel, 2B/SS
High-risk, High-reward: Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B
But for this month of March, as the pro talent gears up for the start of their spring - minor league pitchers and catchers report on Monday, March 10 - we'll do the Pack on the draft prospects, instead.
And for this edition - we'll do one more draft edition later this month - we'll focus on the M's first three picks in the 2009 draft, rather than using the above categories.
I re-ranked the Top 33 players in the draft class after this past weekend, and will simply place the players in their slots as they ranked, rather than weighing other variables.
No. 2: Alex White, RHP - North Carolina
The M's could end up going Dustin Ackley, Grant Green, Tyler Matzek, Donovan Tate, Shelby Miller, or even Aaron Crow here, but White is the safest best right now to hold down the No. 2 ranking.
What the M's would be getting is a right-hander with a low-to-mid 90s fastball, average but improving slider and apparently White started to throw a splitter in lieu of a changeup last spring.
White has solid control, and above-average command of his fastball. He he'd batters to a .215 average as a sophomore in 2008, striking out 113 and walking 42 in 101 2/3 innings.
In two starts this season, the 6-foot-3, 200-pounder has yielded two earned runs in 11 1/3 innings. He's fanned 14 and walked just three batters.
Looking at last year’s draft, White, simply based on talent and value, probably would fit somewhere between No. 14 overall and No. 20, ahead of Joshua Fields.
No. 27: Jiovanni Mier, SS – Bonita High School (La Verne, Calif.)
Mier is a 6-foot-2, 175-pound shortstop with above-average bat speed and the athletic ability and natural instincts to stick defensively. Of course, he’s a high school teenager, so his baseball abilities are going to change drastically as he matures; he’ll either get better as he plays versus better competition in pro ball or college, or he’ll level out and become former M’s draftee Tim Merritt.
Mier has a decent swing, but his setup needs work; he slowly waggles the bat and sways back and forth toward the pitcher and catcher, and often gets caught a little off balance and unable to time the pitch well.
One scout that saw Mier at the AFLAC All-American game last year said Mier was “a good-looking athlete with some skills. It’s always safe to call a shortstop a second baseman or center fielder, but he reminds, physically, of so many second basemen in the big leagues right now, such as Mark Ellis, Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler… I like him, though. He showed good actions out there (on defense).”
Mier is a right-hander hitter and shows an adequate arm.
No. 33: Austin Maddox, C – Eagle’s View Academy, Jacksonville, Fla.
Maddox profiles physically very similarly to current M’s backstop Adam Moore, and possesses average arm strength, a good feel for catching and solid plate discipline - again, much like Moore.
Standing 6-foot-2, Maddox has the frame to carry the 220 pounds at which he’s listed, but conditioning is going to be something to watch. He’s just 18 and is a little bit soft, though nothing alarming presently.
Maddox has above-average power, and his swing is very simple with very little wasted movements. His load is short and he starts the at-bat with a closed stance and his feet more than shoulder width apart; he simply picks his front foot up and puts it back down, slightly dragging it back with him as he rocks toward the catcher then uncoils the bat through the zone.
His release to second base is average, and his follow through is long, but nothing major that should hinder any development in his future.
If RHP Mychal Givens should somehow reach the M’s with either 27 or 33, it’s a gift, and they should take it. Givens is an excellent athlete who is a prospect as a shortstop with a chance to hit for average and power. But his golden ticket is his 92-95 mph fastball thrown from a ¾ arm slot.
Other names to watch for the M’s at 27 and 33 include RHP Tanner Scheppers, who will suit up for the Independent League St. Paul Saints to show he’s healthy, RHP Jacob Turner, who is a top 15 talent that could drop due to signability concerns – he’s a Boras client.
Another Boras client that could make it to 27 and 33 is Tennessee’s Kentrail Davis, a draft-eligible sophomore center fielder. He’s showing markedly better plate discipline and pitch recognition in ’09, and his contact abilities have improved significantly, at least if this young season is any indication.
After whiffing 56 times last season and drawing just 24 walks, Davis has 11 bases on balls and just three strikeouts this year. Davis’ downside is that he probably can’t play center field regularly in the big leagues, primarily due to below-average arm.
The 5-foot-9, 200-pounder reminds many of a young Kirby Puckett, but the comparison’s end with the physical attributes. Davis bats left-handed and does not possess the top-end defensive instincts of the multi-time Gold Glove Award winner.
He does have average power, perhaps slightly above, and is probably a 60 or better runner.
With the No. 2 pick, the M’s will certainly consider White, as well as most others generally considered top-10 talents, but Boras is also the agent for Ackley, Green, Tate and second baseman LeVon Washington, who has a chance at the supplemental round or better.
prospect-pack:-draft-edition
Comments
The following 41 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Slurve on 03-06-2009 00:18:31 That's a pretty solid draft right there... But it's still purely speculation at this point as signability, injuries, and performance will shape put things out in order. IF we could get Strasburg somehow man oh man... Also there is under the radar talent that we might end up drafting with later picks or a unpolished jewel as well. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-06-2009 00:22:36 No offense, Slurve, but you completely missed the point of the entire post with the "it's still purely speculation" comment. BTW, Stras fanned 18 over 8ip tonight versus a top 20 team. |
| 3. By: Blowgun7 on 03-06-2009 00:29:08 Really underwhelmed by the way this draft class is shaping up |
| 4. By: Slurve on 03-06-2009 00:29:54 Yeah I see I kinda missed that part... But anyway that aside when can we expect the Saunders post? Also do you do any international type scouting things? What do you think of Yu Divish and do you think he'll be posted?(He has a kinda funky wind up but I like it) |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-06-2009 00:39:43 Slurve, International stuff is covered in the Handbook, primarily. But if something large occurs, it gets covered on site, too. Of course, I'm always open to project suggestions. I love Darvish, similar stuff to Matszuaka, younger, more athletic. I think he's a No. 2 in the bigs, like Dice-K, but with fewer strikeouts, fewer walks, and more ground balls. He'll get posted at some point. And what Japanese pitcher have you ever seen that did NOT have some funk in his delivery. |
| 6. By: Lonnie on 03-06-2009 01:05:47 I'm confusing myself I think. I thought I had read an article on Maddox that said he had a plus arm behind the plate... Lonnie |
| 7. By: ThePaul on 03-06-2009 01:57:28 Slurve, I highly doubt that Stratsburg will get past Washington especially with Rizzo there and whoever eventually is tagged as GM will probably make it a precursor that they have the go-ahead to draft Stratsburg before they sign on as GM. I hope people don't view whoever we take with #2 with negative bias b/c he's not Stratsburg...kinda like all the Pitt fans do with Moskos (kinda different scenario as they had a chance to draft Wieters). Anyway I'm entirely confidant that there'll eventually be a clear cut #2 talent that will seperate itself from the pack. There always is. |
| 8. By: ThePaul on 03-06-2009 02:02:07 I know this is purely speculative, but I hate the idea of taking a prep catcher in the 1st rd unless he's an amazing talent like Mauer or Harper just b/c of the failure rate, but the prep catching class is pretty loaded - Maddox, Bailey, and Stassi are all probablly going to be drafted within the first 2 rds. |
| 9. By: slick on 03-06-2009 04:41:07 If White was eligiable for 2008 draft he would have been a 14-19 pick as stated above. Crow is in the draft and he was taken 9th last year and Baseball America had him listed the 5th best talent on the board pre draft, would not have been a stretch if the Reds were to have taken him at 7. As for the 27,33 picks I hope Zack Wheeler slides a little I saw him in the Under Armor showcase he pitched a inning or two nice movement on the fastball the guns had him 92-94. I also read that Brian Goodwin is very toolsy. Some college players like den Dekker and Alex Wilson are also worth following. Jason would you compare Purke and Matzek to Royal's 36 pick in 2008 Montgomery or our Purke and Matzek more polished? |
| 10. By: junglist215 on 03-06-2009 08:48:24 Maddox's power cannot be emphasized enough. This kid hit 12 HRs and batted over .500 as a JUNIOR! I really don't think he's going to be available by the 33rd selection, but you never know. He's a Florida commit and could fall. Jason, Have you been able dig up any more info on Borchering yet? Also, what are your thoughts on prep 1b Jonathan Singleton? I was thinking he might be available at the beginning of the 2nd round, but since the recent signings of Cabrera, Reyes, and Cruz have pushed the M's 4th pick out of the top 50 I kinda don't see him being available there. |
| 11. By: John_S on 03-06-2009 09:06:28 Jason, Do you think Andrew Oliver is going to be available at 27 or 33? The only concern I have for him is his control but he seems like a nice looking lefty. |
| 12. By: Lonnie on 03-06-2009 09:37:02 junglist215, Maddox has only given a verbal commitment, but I'm unsure how the rules go with preps and committing to a college. I sure like what I've read about him so far! Just my opinion, but it seems to me that a prep 1st baseman doesn't have a whole lot of upside w/r/t tools. He can be expected to gain more power, but if bat speed doesn't keep up with the power then it sounds like a wasted pick unless it's a late round flier. Lonnie |
| 13. By: junglist215 on 03-06-2009 10:03:10 Lonnie, Here's some video ofJonathan Singleton. He put on a big time power display for scouts in Minnesota, and you can see some that footage there. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-06-2009 10:32:30 Lonnie, It depends on where you read it, but many times it's a matter of whether the writer is saying the arm is plus for his position, or in general terms. I'm always position specific with catchers, so since catchers generally have better arms than LF, CF, 2B, 1B, if not SS, 3B and RF, too, having average arm strength for a catcher is pretty good. |
| 15. By: Gustafson on 03-06-2009 10:36:05 Jason, Slick makes a great point. If White would have only been 14th-20th compared to last year's class, and there is a member of last year's class who was in the top 10, why don't we just take Crow? Or was Crow overrated last year? |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-06-2009 13:01:34 Crow was not overdrafted, but Crow v. 2009 isn't the same as Crow v. 2008. He hasn't pitched in nine months, has lost developmental time that he'll never get back (age 21-22 is a critical year) and White, as well as Oliver and Gibson, do not have such concerns. White v. 2009 versus Crow v. 2008 - I take Crow. White v. 2009 versus Crow v. 2009 - right now, I'll take White. Crow will have to pitch as much as possible in May to show what he is right now. re: junglist215, I did hear word that Borchering is a good but not great prospect, but has some issues with his swing that would have to be cleaned up. He certainly performs, and is doing so in 2009 again. Here's the quote: "His swing is pretty big, a little long, and not consistent. Not sure he can play third, either. I see him at first in left field with an above average bat, if he cleans it (his swing) up." |
| 17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-06-2009 13:03:47 John S, I'd be shocked if Oliver is there at 27. He is a Boras client, but I just don't see it. He could creep into the top 10 easily, too. |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-06-2009 13:06:05 ThePaul, Really? There always is? There wasn't even a consensus No. 1 OR 2 LAST YEAR. Most thought Beckham was one, some thought it was Posey. But after that it was between Alvarez, Posey, Hosmer, and even Gordon Beckham for No. 2 talent. It really was a toss-up, and often is. The difference is, there are usually at least a couple of more-than worthy players, where either one is deserved. This year it seems there is a No. 1 pick, and 10 straight No. 10s. |
| 19. By: Slurve on 03-06-2009 14:09:57 The talent drop from Strasburg and the 2nd pick is huge that's why some of us is disappointed with having to take leftovers... But whoever we take with the 2nd pick as long as he'll be excellent prospect I won't greet him negatively... Unless we actually do get a chance at Strasburg at the number 2 spot and we draft someone else. |
| 20. By: Adam T on 03-06-2009 17:07:55 Jason - do we have any scouting reports on Ackley as a CF? Can he stick there, or is he realistically a corner OF? Also, is there one guy who you think could really explode this year and move to the top of the draft class (non-Strasburg division, of course)? |
| 21. By: Adam T on 03-06-2009 17:09:38 Jason - do we have any scouting reports on Ackley as a CF? Can he stick there, or is he realistically a corner OF? Also, is there one guy who you think could really explode this year and move to the top of the draft class (non-Strasburg division, of course)? |
| 22. By: ThePaul on 03-06-2009 18:36:06 Jason, lol, guess I should've ammended always to usually. I guess the idea I was trying to put forth was that someone usually seperates themself from their draft class, not how they rank when compared to other talents from other draft classes. Also, if we don't get Stratsburg, I'll be happy if we choose a reasonable good talent at #2 as it'll add talent to the system. Last year, Alvarez was clearly the best talent even if the broken hand sapped some of his power and dropped him to #2 ala Mark Texiera. But the scouting reports also seperated Hosmer from plethora of other 1B draftees. |
| 23. By: Lonnie on 03-06-2009 18:37:07 Thanks for the link junglist215, that is some sweet video on the kid. He sounds pretty mature for his age, and that is a huge plus in my book. Lonnie |
| 24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-06-2009 21:22:07 Whose scouting reports, ThePaul? Yours? Baseball America's? No offense, but is that statement based on a scouting report from anyone substantially more credible? I don't trust BA any further than I can throw Rush Limbaugh's ego. Alvarez was NOT the best talent. Tim Beckham was, and you can argue that on pure, raw talent/value, Hosmer and Posey were Alvarez's equal. I spoke to a half-dozen scouting directors and a few assistant SDs, and none of the eight teams represented in the conversations had Alvarez at No. 1. And while Hosmer is the better raw talent, there's a lot of value in someone like Smoak who gives a quicker return and comes with almost zero risk. In the draft, it's not PURELY based on raw talent. "The Best Player Available" is about value, and from this point on, I'm going to stop referring to BPA and instead start using MVPO - Most Valuable Player to the Organization. If Alvarez was more valuable to Tampa than Beckham, they would have taken him No. 1, but they swore up and down BEFORE the draft, that they had Beckham 1 and Posey 1a. Pittsburgh had Beckham, Hosmer, Alvarez, and went with No. 3 on their board because the difference isn't significant and Pedro gives them a quicker return than Hosmer, the prep bat. There's more depth to the value/talent/best player idea than some of you understand, it seems. |
| 25. By: Scrupio on 03-07-2009 01:07:37 Jason, Do you think the M's might be more or less apt to take riskier players at 27 and 33? Since they're getting a primo guy at #2, does that affect their strategy at those picks? Thanks |
| 26. By: bilbo on 03-07-2009 11:32:33 re Ackley, I have seen some reports that in addition to CF that he could possibly play 2B. Jason, what do you think of that and where would he provide the most value? If he can't stick at CF, I assume he would be a plus defender in a corner OF spot. Does his bat play well enough there that he is worthy of a top 5 pick? |
| 27. By: bilbo on 03-07-2009 11:33:51 re Ackley, I have seen some reports that in addition to CF that he could possibly play 2B. Jason, what do you think of that and where would he provide the most value? If he can't stick at CF, I assume he would be a plus defender in a corner OF spot. Does his bat play well enough there that he is worthy of a top 5 pick? |
| 28. By: safecochatter on 03-07-2009 14:14:59 looks like some good stuff your doing for espn. will the pieces you write become available,at some point,to prospectinsider readers? or do they belong to the "eastern sports prospect network"? |
| 29. By: Blowgun7 on 03-07-2009 15:34:52 Jason, what did you think of Aumont today? I was blown away by the pure stuff he has. That was some electricity coming out of his hand. |
| 30. By: Adam T on 03-07-2009 15:36:16 Aumont!! That was fun. For one minute, I felt my allegiance to the Mariners overtake my allegiance to the USA. I know you want to see if he can make it as a starter first, but given his injury history, I'd have no problems turning this kid into a closer. Really, really exciting to watch. |
| 31. By: CrockDaddy on 03-07-2009 15:42:15 it was also great to see his excitement after finishing off granderson. the kid's a competitor. |
| 32. By: CrockDaddy on 03-07-2009 16:00:24 as a converse to scrupio's question, what are the chances that the m's take a high-risk high-reward player like Matzek at 2 and then take a low-risk guy like Leake (being an asu student, i'm rooting for him to be an m) with one of their later picks? |
| 33. By: bikozu on 03-07-2009 16:16:45 Yeah I'd like to see your take on Aumont's performance, Jason. 8 swinging strikes in 25 pitches, using mostly the fastball and making hitters look ridiculous when he threw up the breaking pitch. |
| 34. By: ThePaul on 03-07-2009 16:17:17 Jason, Obviously I don't have your access to your mlb scouts, and like most people my knowledge of players I can't see is minimal and rely on publications such as Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law (which I have subscriptions on all 3). My comment about the best available talent was of course influenced by those 3 publications. I also value your opinions as you've got more access and knowledge about prospects than I do. But I'm also not going to apologize for reading Baseball America's articles. Frankly, I enjoy prospecting and will continue to read all articles I have access to. Are you seriously slamming me for reading their stuff? I don't take their word as god, just like I don't take yours, but I also value their opinions b/c they see prospects that I can't and have access to scouts that I don't. The same reason I value your opinion. I'm able to form my own opinions, and love that you actually respond to posters, but if you don't want me to post on your site just say the word. |
| 35. By: Pumpkin on 03-07-2009 16:58:04 Jason, Did you watch Gabby's start today or hear anything about it? I know he used to be a pretty highly touted prospect two years ago. I read someplace I think maybe LL that his stuff actually looked pretty sharp and he just made one or two mistakes which resulted in giving up the runs. thanks |
| 36. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-07-2009 17:49:29 Pumpkin, I heard he was 88-91, couples 93s but just isn't good, basically. And that was from a scout. ThePaul, Did I say anything derogatory about YOU? Baseball America relies very much on what other people tell them and very often offer it up as their own. I don't trust them as a whole. I didn't feel that way until I started talking to scouts regularly and BA's stuff just didn't add up, so they are either talking to the wrong people or they are talking to some of the right people and just not using those people's opinions enough, instead using what is best for BA, whether that be in quotes or simply opinions. One example is the M's system. Their top 10 very closely resembles how the organization feels about their system. But I can't find ONE scout who would rank Halman OR Aumont above Triunfel, let alone BOTH. That probably goes 10-15 scouts deep, and I'm not talking about just some amateur scout who doesn't leave his area - these are guys that see these players, and one of them is still working in the M's own organization. But I'm never going to be convinced of anything just because BA said it. Their track record on that just isn't good. So when I asked if that was based on anything more reputable, that's what I meant. Is it? If you're going to have an attitude about it, yes, go away. Otherwise, take what I said at face value instead of trying to start static and digging deeper than it goes. |
| 37. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-07-2009 17:51:52 Aumont: reliever, a good one, maybe a closer. Must develop a true slider and can the curve ball with that arm slot. If he stays healthy, he's JJ Putz. Not sure he can start and remain healthy, and he's done so little as a pro, that projecting him a starting pitcher is very difficult for me to do right now, considering all of the above. |
| 38. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-07-2009 17:54:17 safecochatter, they do belong to the four-letter, of course, but c'mon. Subscribe to espn the mag - if for no other reason than to read Bill Simmons - and you get a free insider sub, too. I hate Taylor Rochesti, and think Dentmon should run him over and make him play ball like a man. |
| 39. By: StandinPat on 03-07-2009 23:50:21 Jason, Hellz to the Yeah! I think Rochesti took as many flops as he did jump shots....that being said...damnn, some of of those jump shots....anywho.... I dont know how much you've actually been able to see this spring, but from quotes/game recaps its seems like Tui has really taken that next step, he's driving the ball all over the place, and his D has maybe gone from being well below average to somewhat above, curious to hear you thoughts? Also, Balentein came to camp on fire! Any word on if he's put in the work or if its just a couple of ab's and nothing more? |
| 40. By: mykillmagnum on 03-07-2009 23:55:23 jason, a little off topic, but was just watching baseball tonight, and the were talking about the yankees and alex roidriguez possibly not playing for 4 to 5 months if he decides not to have surgery. they mentioned that they dont really have an internal replacement for him. would the yankees try and go after beltre? theres not much in the market for 3rd basemen, and knowing the yankees, they normally only go for the best. i think the ms could really use this to there advantage and throw in a washburn or a bautista and have the yankees take on there contracts. desperate times call for desperate measures right? i was thinking something like beltre, washburn or baustista, rob johnson and maybe a mid level prospect for nic swisher, andrew brackman brad suttle and another prospect. would that be enough? or too much. swisher could come in and play left field and take beltres spot in the line up. mike morse, who is out of options can play 3rd for us, as long as he stays healty. i dont know if the trade make sense, i mean it does for the yankees, and we would get two top prospects and a left fielder with pretty good power. i dont know, espn just got me thinking, what do you think??? by the way, how good did king felix look? 4 innings, 4 ks... i heard he was pretty dominent. |
| 41. By: starbuckdog on 03-09-2009 10:45:46 J.C. - Do you happen to know what # Triunfel is wearing in camp? |
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