Prospect Insider - Prospect Power Sheet

Prospect Power Sheet

By Jason A. Churchill

By 04-24-2011

Every few weeks or so we'll visit the minors, both in and out of the Seattle Mariners organization and construct a hot sheet of sorts. It won't be a simple ranking of prospects, but a combo of a player's assessed future value and his recent trends. it just won't simply be based on statistical results.

The bats in the M's system started off ice cold but this edition consists mostly of hitters. Surprise, surprise.

1. Carlos Triunfel, SS -- Jackson (AA)
Triunfel starts Sunday with a .283/.333/.483 line in 15 games but his eight extra-base hits (six doubles and two homers) stick out because he didn't get his eighth extra-base knock last season until May 23 -- exactly one month later than this season.

He's also made just one error, and while that doesn't measure range and problems around the bag with the double play, routine mistakes has been the biggest reason why Triunfel has been a question mark at the position.

He's still making contact -- just seven strikeouts -- and has four walks, which is somewhat low but it's not Denny Almonte territory, and is a pace for a career-best mark for the 21-year-old Triunfel.

2. Nick Franklin, SS -- High Desert (A+)
Franklin's .291/.409/.473 line is impressive because he started so poorly. In his past 12 games, Franklin is hitting .372 with 10 walks and just eight punch outs.

His defense at short isn't a problem, but some scouts -- mostly very traditional scouts -- strongly suggest he'll end up at second. But there is no real reason right now to believe he won't play shortstop, and I haven't seen any reason when watching Franklin that he'd have to make the move anytime soon.

3. Julio Morban, LF -- Clinton (A)
Morban's healthy -- finally -- and showing why he ranked at No. 7 in Prospect Insider's Top 10 heading into 2009. He's hitting line drives and reaching the gaps with regularity. He's not getting much loft on the ball due to a lack of leverage in his swing and top-of-the-order bat speed and swing mechanics.

He's swinging and missing too much, however, so an adjustment needs to be made, but word is a lot of that is on breaking balls, which is the lesser of two evils between that and being unable to catch up to velocity.

4. Tyler Burgoon, RHP -- Clinton (A)
Burgoon is closing for Clinton, showing 90-94 mph fastballs and an above-average slider. The slider is the key for Burgoon -- that and command, of course -- and it's occasionally a plus pitch.

5. Brandon Maurer, RHP -- Clinton (A)
Maurer is missing bats, and that's a sign of above-average stuff, but I missed Maurer in spring training and will have to trust a pro scout or two.

One thinks he's "interesting, aggressive and worth watching." So here he is.

prospect-power-sheet

Comments
The following 26 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: slamcactus on 04-24-2011 19:59:03
Wow, what a difference a couple weeks can make. Obviously it's way too early to buy into Triunfel's power stroke, but this is sure nice to see. He's teased us before (I'm pretty sure he hit HRs in back-to-back games at one point last year), but I'm definitely intrigued.

Part of me worries that even the good version of Triunfel has a ceiling of Jose Lopez with less power. Learning to take a walk this year would go a long way towards allaying those fears for me.

2. By: rocketdawg31 on 04-24-2011 22:47:23

Wow, what a difference a couple weeks can make. Obviously it's way too early to buy into Triunfel's power stroke, but this is sure nice to see.

Totally agree, slam.

I'm dying for ANY good news on the prospect front, after seeing the major-league product.

I just wish I knew which way the wind blows with Triunfel. Impact bat or (to borrow slam's example) Jose Lopez 2.0?

You think the Gods Of Baseball will look down kindly on us again, and have some 19-20-year-old go all wunderkind on us?

We have GOT to be due for a pleasant surprise on the farm.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-24-2011 22:59:17
The two main differences between the two is Triunfel's bat speed (and swing length) and overall athleticism.

Triunfel is not a freak, but his agility grossly trumps that of Lopez's and his foot speed is at least a grade above.

But the swing advantage is why I think Triunfel has a chance to be much better than Lopez overall. He does need to continue to make progress in the walks department, however.

4. By: Timberwolf on 04-24-2011 23:55:43
If Jose Lopez is the floor for Triunfel, that's not bad. Jose put up some pretty decent major league numbers at a young age. What was it that went wrong with Jose, was he too stupid to adjust, too stubborn to take coaching, or too lazy to work hard enough to improve, orb a combination of all three?

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-24-2011 23:56:37
all three. right on the nose.

6. By: Marco on 04-25-2011 04:27:42
Any notes about Ackley ?

7. By: Ayala Faction on 04-25-2011 08:50:02
Jason,

Factoring Safeco and defensive upside, is Triunfel still the favorite to be the future at SS?

If they both pan out offensively, and the M's get Rendon in June, where would you see Franklin and Triunfel ending up? Too much rosterbation? More realistic one will fail to hit major league pitching?

Either way, it's nice to have two potential SS's still projecting as possible above average bats.

8. By: krob4mvp on 04-25-2011 11:57:38
Jason,

I am wondering what your opinion is on Arizona's prospect Paul Goldschmidt. He is 23 and I was looking at his line 345/473/845 with 9 bombs and 20 ribs in 20 games at AA Mobile. With his combined stats from last year and the first 20 games this year I was wondering what his MLB outlook might be. Thanks!

9. By: StandinPat on 04-25-2011 13:28:09
"Obviously it's way too early to buy into Triunfel's power stroke"

I think we can buy into part of it. He's always had the tools and the hand eye coordination for easy doubles power and I think that is coming to fruition. I buy into the power stroke, just not quite to the level he's putting up so far.

10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-25-2011 16:59:40
Regarding Triunfel's power -- the bat speed and hand-eye have always been there, now the swing is starting to take shape. I saw in spring training.

Ayala,

Triunfel is behind Franklin in terms of who is most likely to become the long-term SS for the M's. Triunfel could see a move to 2B if they determine SS isn't his future position and that Franklin's the better bet.

krob4mvp,

Haven't seen Goldshmidt for myself, but the word is he's a big Rich Poythress like slugger with a better swing and slightly better defensive ability.

Has holes, but is also polished.

11. By: SMariners11 on 04-26-2011 00:19:09
Saw Franklin in Lake Elsinore, showed some pretty good range on a couple of plays in the hole. Mario Martinez still looks confused alot, but when he stays on the ball can sting it.

12. By: Ayala Faction on 04-26-2011 10:51:14
So lets just say Rendon, Franklin, Ackley, and Smoak have locked down the infield in 2013. Wouldn't it make sense to stick Triunfel in CF or RF? I don't know if this factors in, but wouldn't you think those positions are more open for future playing time than 2b, and better utilize Triunfel's biggest defensive asset, which is arm strength?

13. By: Edman on 04-26-2011 13:05:37
#12, I think it's safe to say, if Triunfel can swing a bat, they will find a place for him to use it. It doesn't really matter what position he plays now. Until he can prove he can hit major league pitching, it's not really worth worrying about where he'll play. Worse case is he's an outfielder, best case, he's on the infield.

You can never have too many major league ready bats. Just like you can't ever have too many quality pitchers.

14. By: maqman on 04-26-2011 13:10:51
Us getting Rendon is not a slam-dunk at this point. If Saunders can't cut it then it's a possibility that Ackley moves out to LF next season and they re-up Kennedy for 2B. Again, just a possibility. They could trade or sign a free agent OF easier than a decent 2B.

15. By: ndcohn on 04-26-2011 13:17:32
I don't think Ackley's early performance is exceptionally bad or worth worrying about, but it does make me wonder: at what point *should* we start to wonder about Ackley? If June comes and he's batting 270/370/400 like last year, do red flags go up? Would the Mariners keep him in AAA for a while longer if his line remains unimpressive?

16. By: dawgncarolina on 04-26-2011 13:50:31
Ackley has an .854 OPS in his last 10 games, going .300/.404/.450 in that time. He struggled coming out of the gate but I don't think it's accurate to suggest he's really struggling right now.

The fatal flaw with Ackley appears to be hitting lefties. He's struggling against them again this year, with 6 K's in 16 abs (22 pa's). He still gets on base pretty well against southpaws, but he's not hitting for average nor power against them. I think Cameron's probably right that they're going to want a platoon partner for him in the bigs, at least at first.

With that in mind, I have no real doubts that he's ready to hit righties right now, and it sounds like his defense is at least passable. Unless his play deteriorates between now and June, I don't see why they wouldn't bring him up.

17. By: rjfrik on 04-26-2011 21:41:42
Another thing you guys have to consider when talking about the 2013 position players is that we will most likely get the number one pick in 2012 and the 2012 draft is loaded with position players at the top, this year it's the pitchers, next year it's the position players.. And with that pick there is a really good chance the M's grab an infielder as McCullers SS, Diekroeger SS, Marrero SS, Russell SS and Nyisztor SS are all projected as of now to be in or around the top ten. One of those kids could very well be the SS of the future.

As Edman said you can never have enough bats. If we do indeed draft one of these five in 2012 a few guys will have to be moved as Triunfel, Franklin and one of the afore can't all play the same position. Then again it's so early we have no idea who the number one pick will be come next year. But it will be a nice blue chip to have, no doubt.

18. By: dawgncarolina on 04-26-2011 23:38:49
"we will most likely get the number one pick in 2012"

It's WAAAAAAAAAY to early to say that about any team. The field has a far, far greater chance of getting the #1 pick than the M's do.

19. By: Edman on 04-27-2011 03:52:26
Agreed, dawg. It's silly to start discussions about potential picks in 2012 and beyond. Last year was an epically horrible offense. To think that a team with decent starting pitching, even with a poor offense, is destine to finish last this season, is beyond premature. I can easily see the M's being better than four or five teams.

20. By: StandinPat on 04-27-2011 11:54:34
Predicting a last place finish in the midst of a win streak?

21. By: rjfrik on 04-27-2011 11:55:12
It is a little premature I guess, but I think you guys have a lot more optimism about this team then I do. I just don't see it. When I watch this team, I see a team that can't hit, has a couple decent pitchers and a horrible pen. A team with the worst run differential in the league to go along with the worst record. I think by June we will be so far out of first that a sell off will start with Chone, Jack, Jack, Milton, David, Brandon all being dangled for anything and everything we can obtain. The keys will then be handed to the kids (as it should) and we will go through a season of growing pains. It's not going to be pretty but at least there will be some growth.

With the division and league we are in I just don't see us not finishing with the worst or second worst record again this year. My money's on pulling up the rear and grabbing the number one pick in 2012. But I'm a realist more then an optimist.

Talk soon guys

22. By: griggs on 04-27-2011 14:02:12
I think its safe to say the M's will have another top 5 pick in the 2012 draft. You have to consider that DA and Vargas are due for some hefty raises so the M's may consider trading them. Both players have value to a team that could need pitching for a playoff run (Yankees, Reds for example). I'd expect to see DA gone by the AS break. Especially if he comes back and pitches well.

23. By: 01v-dubs on 04-27-2011 15:42:17
Just saw that Paxton will be making his debut tonight for Clinton. Jason will you have any eyes there so we can find out how he does?

24. By: Edman on 04-27-2011 17:11:05
griggs, I think too many assume that what they think, is what Jack is thinking. Many thought that Aardsma would be traded over the winter. There was nothing to indicate, early on, that was going to happen. I have no idea what Jack is going to do, but I'm sure he doesn't want to completely rebuild a bullpen and deprive himself of someone as valuable as Vargas.

There is nothing to indicate that Jack will start trading off pieces. Wilson, maybe. Bradly, perhaps. DA, not so much. Vargas, very doubtful, unless Beavan shows he could step right in.

To build for 2012 and beyond, there needs to be a core of established veterans too. Going with a roster filled with kids, means even more time to become a contender. And, I doubt that Jack is going to get another three plus years to contend.

25. By: rjfrik on 04-27-2011 20:19:31
I tell you one thing I love about this season is the young building blocks Smoak and Pineda. They are both really fun to watch and form an excellent young core (with Felix) for the future.

Smoak is awesome.

26. By: dawgncarolina on 04-28-2011 16:05:46
"It is a little premature I guess, but I think you guys have a lot more optimism about this team then I do."

Can't speak for anyone else but it's less optimism and more understanding of statistical probability. When I made that statement the M's were one of like 4 teams with the worst record, and another 4 teams were close. And that's without Franky at all, and without Smoak for quite a bit.

The odds of any of those 8 teams getting the first pick is less than 10% at this point (as other teams still have as shot at it as well).

Like I said, the field is a far, FAR better bet than any one team.

And I disagree with your "realist" descriptor. You are an optimistic pessimist. You expect the worst, but in expecting the worst you are optimistic for the best (the first pick). You've rooted for the first pick (and predicted it) twice in the last three years, and it hasn't happened yet.

It's not likely to happen this year either. Sorry to burst your bubble.

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