Prospect Insider - Prospect Watch: System Rebuild

Prospect Watch: System Rebuild

By Jason A. Churchill

By 06-10-2010

What a difference a few weeks make, eh?

The Seattle Mariners farm system began the year ranked among the bottom third in baseball, and such a ranking may have been generous. The top prospect compounded the concern of a lack of impact talent and depth by struggling early, but those worries are gone -- long, long gone.

Since the turn of the month – April to May – things are looking up, despite one slugger that had many of you excited falling off the face of the earth since a strong first four weeks.

Carlos Peguero, RF
Yep, this is that guy. Peguero followed up the month of April where he hit .390/.457/.780 with nine home runs with a .243/.347/.393 line in May and a similar start to the month if June. "He's got power, that isn't the issue," said one AL scout. "He's just a big swinger and the swing is long, he's not going to hit good velocity unless he cheats."

The 23-year old is also showing poor versus left-handed pitching, managing just 15 hits in 81 at-bats and has struck out 33 times. "It's common among bigger guys that take huge swings," the scout continued. "He doesn't appear to see the ball well out of (a lefty's) hand and anything that breaks away from him is big trouble. He's the same hitter now that he was last summer."

Yes, those are all negative, but I actually disagree that Peguero is the same hitter. The swing path is much more conducive to line drives than in previous glimpses, giving him a better chance to make contact. The strikeout rates are still a concern, and he’ll need to shorten the swing to hit for enough average to profile as an everyday player, but hitting left-handers better is also a necessity.

Dustin Ackley, 2B
Ackley started off slow – scaring the daylights out of most of you that perhaps he really is, at best, Dave Magadan with speed. But while his play at second base has returned mixed reviews (although I think that's scouts picking on Ackley and the M's decision to put him there and expecting far too much far too early), his bat is now speaking loudly and with a southern accent.

Since May 4, Ackley has taken his .147 April average up to .249 entering play Thursday by posting a triple-slash of .324/.477/.483 with 11 extra-base hits and a ridiculous, eye-popping 28-13 BB/K ratio, including a 14-1 ratio in his last 14 games.

What's different?

“The approach is the same, the skills are the same ... maybe he was just teasing in April,” quipped one NL scout. "He's got a great eye, and I don’t mean just with balls and strikes but within the zone he knows what he can hit and where and recognizes that so quickly that it allows him to take the right pitches for strikes and which to put a swing on."

Or, as I like to say, Ackley is the Joe Montana of baseball.
"Ya know, that's not bad, actually," the scout continued. "He sees the ball well, has a great swing that is very consistent and compact ... he's clearly going to hit for average and get on base."

He's still having issues versus lefties, but he's just two months into his pro career and has time to make adjustment.
You can all relax, Dustin Ackley is just fine.

Rich Poythress, 1B
Poythress is having a solid season at High Desert, but he's still susceptible to pitches on the inner half and until he resets his hands he's probably going to have problems with better pitching.

He doesn't use his hips enough, or he might be able to get around the issue, but he's without plus bat speed and his slow load compounds the problem.

It's fixable, however, but the video I have seen doesn't show any changes. He starts with his hands close to his right ear and as the pitch is being delivered his first lengthy movement is back toward the catcher. Hitters with big-time bat speed and plus pitch recognition can get away with this. Poythress has neither.

Poythress was named to the California League All-Star team today, along with Mavericks right-hander Kenn Kasparek.

Nick Franklin, SS
Franklin is still hitting the ball well, including three hits and a homer Thursday, but I do have one concern -- the strikeouts. Power is not going to be his game in the big leagues, so temper the enthusiasm on the power numbers a bit and focus more on his hit tool and ability to work the count, make contact at well above average rates and get on base.

He's also made 10 errors in the field so far, which would appear to be a bit high, but he's not making the kinds of errors to worry about long term. One scout told me in May that Franklin "could play shortstop in Seattle right now without embarrassing himself."

Franklin made the Midwest League All-star game, although, somehow, Cubs prospects Hak-ju Lee is starting ahead of him despite Franklin blowing him out of the water in many categories.

Draft and the Top 25
The mid-season prospect report will be out later this month and I will include the draftees, but with a caveat. Not all of them are going to sign, so instead of assuming so, I'll leave out LHP Jordan Schipers and grade them out as if the top five picks are going to sign.

And I can tell you, the draft this week completely revamped the entire farm system, including the Top 25.

One note on LHP James Paxton: Word is that he will sign, and there's a chance he signs sooner than one would expect, considering he has little leverage. Not a soul in the industry has yet to opine that Scott Boras will hold Paxton out again, and some believe he will try to make up for the loss in bonus money by getting him under contract quickly so he can get to the big leagues that much faster.

prospect-watch:-system-rebuild

Comments
The following 39 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: baseballman on 06-10-2010 22:06:00
Good stuff JAC. im definitely looking for forward to the midseason report. awesome job with the draft too guys.

also great to hear that about paxton. assuming he does sign early, with the season not yet over, what will the plan be for him? could we see him in an Ms uniform right out the gate next year? if so will it be in the bullpen or could he actually make the rotation?

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-10-2010 22:11:30
On Paxton,

It depends on when he signs this year and how much, if any, time he gets in pro ball this summer.

I don't see, however, any way he starts with the big club next year, but anything is possible, I guess.

It may also depend on the M's roster next year, but again, I think Paxton needs some time in the minors to make some adjustments.

He needs to pick one breaking ball and stick with it, and the change needs work, too.

I could see him breaking through in August of next year as a starter, and if they need pen help moreso (hard to believe) or they need to limit his workload some -- and Paxton is ready -- I could see him getting some relief work by mid-season.

Most likely we're looking at a member of the 2012 rotation.

3. By: Slack on 06-10-2010 22:23:16
How concerned should we be about Littlewood's signability? Are there any signability concerns with Stanek?

4. By: greymstreet on 06-10-2010 22:28:18
Why did Paxton fall so far?

5. By: shemberry on 06-10-2010 22:30:28
Jason,

I asked about him in another thread, but this seems like the more appropriate place. What kind of time table do you see for Raben?

6. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-10-2010 23:16:21

Great stuff, Jason. When is there gonna be a chat?

Greymstreet,

I'm not Jason, but I'm guessing a showing of down velocity in the indies and injury concerns (was he going to regain previous form?) probably dropped Paxton to the 4th round.

I can't think of too many other red flags that would keep a lefty with his upside available until the 4th round.

7. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 06-10-2010 23:22:54
Liddi/Poythress/Raben who do you think will make the first big impact with the Mariners? And do you think any of the three will end up being long term above average contributors?

8. By: bobbysee1 on 06-10-2010 23:24:26
Speaking of time tables, what about Alex Liddi? I seem to remember you being down on him JAC. He seems like a good RBI guy. Is he a hack at 3rd? Can he play the hot corner or is he destined to be a Ron Bloomberg DH-type?

Thanks for alleviating my concerns about the quality of the draft!

9. By: carstensm on 06-10-2010 23:26:04
Do you think Ackley will see time in Tacoma this summer? And if so is there any chance we see him in September?

10. By: littlelinny6 on 06-10-2010 23:51:09
Any new reports on our dominant trio of starters in AA in Pineda, Robles, and Hensley. Especially for Pineda, do you think he is in Tacoma once the first-half playoff race is finished in a few weeks? I'd see Robles staying in AA until he can become more efficient and gain a little command but I think he along with Hensley hopefully will be starting for Tacoma by August. Any thoughts?

11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-11-2010 00:14:19
Slack,

The belief is that Stanek and Littlewood will both sign.

greymstreet,

A combination of the rust factor and Boras.

mauricewilliamsiii,

As a bat I like Raben the best -- Poythress has more raw power, Raben the better hit tool. Liddi has a chance to be an average defensive contributor, just not at third base.

If he stays healthy, Raben is the answer. That doesn't mean he has the best chance at the big leagues, but as an above-average player? Yes.

12. By: JR1998 on 06-11-2010 00:18:17
How would you compare the other divisional teams' drafts relative to the M's?

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-11-2010 00:19:41
bobbysee1,

I'm not down on Liddi, I'm just not stupid. He's had one good year statistically -- it was a monster -- but in that league you have to consider other factors ... the scouting factor mostly. Liddi just doesn't scout out nearly as well as the numbers. Avg bat, avg glove are his ceilings.

carstensm,

I'm not sure, but I tell you what I would do. Leave Ackley in West Tenn through the minor league season, including any playoff runs. Then I'd bring him up to Seattle for the remainder of the schedule, even if it's just a week or two.

linny,

I don't see the point in promoting Pineda at this point. He has things to work on and while his numbers are very good, he's still challenged in his areas of need -- changeup, delivery, composure with runners on base, slider.

Pushing him has more downside to it. Robles and Hensley will be in Tacoma next year, whereas Pineda could break camp with the M's.

14. By: littlelinny6 on 06-11-2010 00:37:46
Wouldn't Pineda be better served refining those things in Tacoma? AAA has more advanced hitter where he'll actually have to use his slider and change more often to get hitters out on a consistent basis. I thought the whole goal is for him to become a good pitcher for the Seattle Mariners and facing former ML in Tacoma seems like a better bet I'd think to improve his problem areas. You said Pineda has a change to break camp with the M's next year, do you think that could be as a starter? The M's really need a No.2/3 starter behind Felix next year and obviously that is a huge jump for him but I'm trying to be hopeful in this depressing season.

15. By: littlelinny6 on 06-11-2010 00:38:47
Wouldn't Pineda be better served refining those things in Tacoma? AAA has more advanced hitter where he'll actually have to use his slider and change more often to get hitters out on a consistent basis. I thought the whole goal is for him to become a good pitcher for the Seattle Mariners and facing former ML in Tacoma seems like a better bet I'd think to improve his problem areas. You said Pineda has a change to break camp with the M's next year, do you think that could be as a starter? The M's really need a No.2/3 starter behind Felix next year and obviously that is a huge jump for him but I'm trying to be hopeful in this depressing season.

16. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 06-11-2010 01:37:29
Thanks Jason. The reason I worded the question that way is that I see Liddi/Poythress/Raben all as first basemen. I just hope one of them ends up being the consistent .500+ slugging player that the Mariners need.

17. By: Marco on 06-11-2010 02:12:29
Yes, Liddi's defense is still erratic - even I'd say the whole WT defense seems on that same level now, included super-tooled Triunfel and Ackley - but let me say that Alex line in June is something that recalls me of his performance in HD: .375/.417/.500 with 3/5 BB/K and most of all a 25% Line Drive. It's not a mistery that everybody was waiting for the kid to be in big trouble vs. AA pitching and I'm really glad in that sense he's been really disappointing to them. Perhaps his WT coaches are seeing something we can't see since he quickly became their regular 3rd man in the lineup.

18. By: Marco on 06-11-2010 02:38:59
Opss, sorry, update on Liddi's June line after last game vs Tennessee: .400/.463/.629 with one more 2B, a 3-run HR and a walk...

19. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 06-11-2010 08:31:51
I really like Liddi. I think he will almost certainly hit in the major leagues. I question whether or not he will hit well enough to be a first baseman or designated hitter and those are the only positions I think he is suited for. The main reason I have liked and continue to like Liddi purely as a hitter is his use of all fields. And he is actually younger than Poythress and Raben. Hopefully he develops enough to hit 40 doubles and 20 homeruns along with a .280 average. That would be acceptable to me, especially if the Mariners end up signing Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder after the 2011 season.

20. By: Marco on 06-11-2010 09:21:56
A lot of skeptical and bad comments have been said about Liddi but the kid is bringing "facts" onto the table, not just words. He started hitting last year in HD and never never stopped to improve every single day passing. It's easy to realize it If you go here http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/

21. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-11-2010 14:14:23

Believe it or not, the idea of Liddi being our first baseman of the near-future never occurred to me. That's an interesting idea, every indicator I've ever seen on the kid is that he'll have a tough time being good enough with the glove at third base... once he's at the major-league level.

But at 6'4", he has enough pure reach to be so.

I'd pretty much penciled in Raben and Poythress as better bets to develop and go there in the future. But, Liddi...hmmm.

Well, in a year or two, we'll see...Alex Liddi is VERY young for a kid with 4 years (I think it's that much) of minor-league experience. Maybe his development goes and hits stratosphere, I dunno. Won't put money on it, but it'd be nice to reap the benefit of a bolt of lightning like that...

22. By: jd7979 on 06-11-2010 14:23:23
Is there going to be a chat or did it already happen?

23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-11-2010 14:41:42
Marco,

You're wrong about Liddi. The most important thing a hitter can do is avoid outs, and he doesn't do that very well. His strikeouts are part of the reason, and his rates haven't improved.

There's no chance he's an everyday first baseman in major league baseball.

jd,

Chat was moved to Saturday, 8pm. Will post a link tonnight.

24. By: Marco on 06-11-2010 15:07:34
I do not know Jason, really I'm not in a position to reach a statement like yours. Maybe he'll never become a major leaguer or perhaps just one the many journeymen for a couple of seasons or so. The only thing I can do from thousand miles away is to follow with growing interest the young career of that kid from nowhere who is fighting every odds. At the very end only time will say the final word.

25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-11-2010 15:50:47
Marco,

No, all you can do is read stats. And you're not even reading them correctly. You continue to highlight the positive and completely ignore the negative. All that will do for you is make you wrong. Again and again.

Liddi doesn't suck, but there are a lot of issues with his game that strongly suggest he's not a major league everyday player.

26. By: randallball on 06-11-2010 15:54:59
Jason and/or Chris,
You just finished doing a fantastic job with the '10 draft here, and I am very appreciative as I'm sure all of the readers are, but since this season is already lost, curious if you have any thoughts on the guys that RIGHT NOW rank as top 5-10 of the '11 draft that the M's could be in line to pick up.

27. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-11-2010 16:47:04
randall,

I have a post in the hopper for maybe tomorrow, maybe Monday on the class of 2011.

I'll probably talk about it during the chat tomorrow night, too.

28. By: Marco on 06-11-2010 16:47:24
Jason, I realize Liddi's split numbers are not those ones of Buster Posey or Mike Stanton and that he has still a lot to show before being able to claim a MLB roster spot - if ever he'll be able to do that - but I do believe it's unfair to affirm you do not see there any steady improvement. What drives me crazy is someone (it's not you Jason) who wrote a couple of weeks ago that Liddi's numbers would have quickly decreased. Perhaps it will happen, perhaps not, how can anyone say that for a 21-years old who's been playing in AA from two months and whose numbers are widely better than some long time professionals or highly touted players ? Why some guys have the right to receive unlimited credit and Liddi not ?

29. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-11-2010 17:45:16
Marco,

Liddi isn't showing progress in terms of strikeout rates, walk rates and defense. He just isn't. That is all there is to it right now.

Does he still have time? Sure. But in two years his defensive range is worse, despite showing better hands and making fewer throwing errors, and he's still strikeout far too often. He started the season with ground to make up and he simply hasn't done it.

He's not old and it's not too late, but Liddi doesn't deserve any more attention or respect as a prospect than dozens and dozens of others.

He doesn't deserve to be hyped up, so he won't be.

You can hate that all you want but he's in a similar boat as Carlos Peguero, who has a much higher ceiling than Liddi, and gets less press from me for some of the same reasons.

30. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 06-11-2010 18:30:09
I've attended games and seen Liddi take good breaking balls on the outer half to right field for base hits. I've never seen Peguero do anything like that. I agree that Liddi is not a good enough 3B and probably won't hit enough to play 1B on a team that needs big power there.

Having said that, comparing him to Peguero is pretty hyperbolic. Peguero is a poor mans Balentien to me. I see Liddi as a guy who could hit .300 in his very best seasons. I don't see how you can say Peguero has a higher ceiling and I've never heard or read anything or anyone else who thinks that. I wouldn't even list Peguero as a prospect, whereas I would rate Liddi as a marginal one.

31. By: Marco on 06-11-2010 18:35:09
All right Jason, so let's wait for what's going to happen in the future. After all he's the same age of Mike Moustakas and Lonnie Chisenhall while he's two years younger than Pedro Alvarez, Juan Francisco and Josh Bell and four years younger than Brett Wallace.
Good luck Alex !

32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-11-2010 20:00:19
maurice,

Good thing you work for someone other than the Mariners or they'd be in big trouble.

That was a really sad attempt.

BTW, you obviously can't read or ignored what I have said through the conversation, and didn't get a glimpse of my Top 20 over the offseason because...

Liddi was in the top 10, and Peguero wasn't anywhere in the top 30.

Start paying attention, man.

33. By: d2ret on 06-11-2010 20:42:10
Jason, at this point, what are your thoughts as to why they went with Walker over Castellanos with the first pick. Was it signability and saving money for later in the draft? Or did they have Littlewood tabbed the whole time for the second pick? Seems like Littlewood is Z's type of guy (intangibles).

Were they that high on Walker?

34. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 06-12-2010 00:32:45
Jason I have not seen any of your top prospects lists since the Post Intelligencer went belly up. I live on a fixed income and would love to sign up but I have no credit or debit cards and I honestly might not be able to afford it. Sorry for the miscommunication though, I misunderstood your comment about ceiling.

35. By: Marco on 06-12-2010 05:02:43
"Liddi isn't showing progress in terms of strikeout rates, walk rates and defense"

Aside from his defense which is certainly erratic Liddi W/K ratio has been improving as follows:
April, 1 to 5.2
May, 1 to 2.3
June, 1 to 1.2
In that same timespan his FB % decreased from 44.2% to 16.1% while his LD% increased from 12.1% to 25.8%

36. By: FelixElRey on 06-12-2010 09:50:48
Okay, Marco, clearly you are a friend or family member of this kid. And while I hope you are right about Liddi being a legit big leaguer, Jason has the knowledge and connections to trump any of your stats with, "The scouts and I just don't see it happening" I suggest you give up and just wait to hopefully say, "I told you so"

37. By: Marco on 06-12-2010 10:44:33
You're wrong, I'm not a friend of Liddi or family member, only a baseball and Alex fan from Italy. Not even a M's fan, if you wish to know. Anyway I accept your suggestion.

38. By: Edman on 06-12-2010 16:10:33
I appreciate Jason and those that he knows. That said, I've been around long enough to know that baseball talent evaluation isn't a science. I've seen many evaluator be wrong about "can't miss" prospects.....and, about "he'll never be a major leaguer."

Liddi has a long way to go yet. He has shown development at all the levels he's advanced to. Odds are against Liddi, but that's true of nearly every minor league player.

What Liddi ends up is ultimately up to him. If this is his ceiling, then that's true. But, if not, and he takes to all he's being taught, there's no reason he can't be a useful major leaguer.

It's not about where you start a journey, it's about where you end it.

39. By: slick on 06-12-2010 20:40:46
Jason

17 year old Vincente Campos VSL 19IP 25K 3BB 0.93 ERA. In 2008 last minute sign away from Cardinals. You have any reports on this guy stuff velo ect?

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