Prospect Insider - Prospects of the Year

Prospects of the Year

By Jason A. Churchill

By 11-01-2009

Someone once glared at me from a huge monitor and asked me where I thought the next pitch was coming from and then belted out a warning as we both nonchalantly resumed our previous tasks:

"But watch out for in your ear."

It was not a banner year for the Seattle Mariners farm system; Carlos Triunfel missed most of the year with a serious ankle injury, former first-round pick Phillippe Aumont is no longer a starting pitching prospect and the only pitcher that really stuck out above Class A ball is a fringy left-hander with average stuff and limited upside.
A lot of the starters were up and down, hurt or lacked the performance levels to qualify, really...

Michael Saunders missed some time to start the year after having shoulder surgery and Matt Tuiasosopo spent half the year out with his own injury -- to his throwing arm. That doesn't make it easy to try and anoint the organization's prospects of the year.

Now, an explanation of the difference between PI's Prospects of the Year and the run-of-the-mill "player of the year" awards, since I know this confuses some people.

If the player's future is not that of a legitimate everyday player, a starting rotation mainstay or a high-leverage reliever, he won't even be considered, unless the system is weak. In the M's case, a few of those are in the conversation, but didn't finish high.

Carlos Peguero is a good example. Big power numbers, lots of RBI, left-handed bat, but his combination of tools and performance don't project to the bigs.

Andrew Carraway is another, albeit different type of example. His success was based on command and feel of average stuff at the lower levels while facing far less experienced and generally inferior bats.

And better prospects that are closer to the big leagues are more likely to win any tie-breaking scenarios or even near-tie-breaking situations.

Late additions such as Mauricio Robles and Dan Cortes didn't do enough while in the system to warrant much consideration.

What makes the prospect the prospect of the year? Well, a solid or better year is a good start, and progress from years past helps, too. The lower on the prospect totem pole the player is, the more he has to do to overtake those ahead of him.

Pitcher
The easy way out would be to give in on Nick Hill, since he's got a chance to contribute at the back-end of the M's rotation as early as 2010 or serve in any role before the 9th inning from the bullpen, or to hand it to Aumont, who was impressive in High-A and Double-A at 20 years of age in just his second year of pro ball.

Doug Fister's upside is too low to consider him beyond the initial conversation, and, well, let's start the countdown with him.

5. Doug Fister, RHP (AAA)
Fister is the epitome of a useful arm without much upside, or risk. He is what he is, for the most part, but can serve in a starting role or in middle relief where he's touched 94 mph in the minors.

4. Phillippe Aumont, RHP (AA)
Ultimately, Aumont's raw stuff is enough to close games, or be an uber-useful two-inning setup man if he develops his breaking ball and/or sustains his ground ball tendencies.

3. Steve Hensley, RHP (A+)
I'm not convinced Hensley can start, but here's the thing: I'm not convinced he can't, either, and his stuff -- including velocity -- is at least average.

2. Nick Hill, LHP (AA)
He's probably a reliever in the end, but could fill in with the ability to get RHBs out (changeup, FB movement) but scouts in Arizona who saw him all summer in West Tenn call him a 45.

1. Juan Ramirez, (A+)
Ramirez's ERA in the Cal League was actually respectable, considering the talent that came through in 2009, but looking deeper is what brought me to Ramirez.

I fought off picking Ramirez because the steps forward he took were not overly significant, his results were decent but not great or good, and the improvement of his command and breaking ball did not appear much better than a year ago.

But when I combined his probability, upside, median outcome and translate his 2009 season accordingly, including a look at his five best starts, five worst starts, and taking his team's defense into consideration, Ramirez was actually pretty good in 2009, especially considering his BABIP was among the highest in the league for starting pitchers.

One scout reminded me that in 2008, Ramirez's slider was inconsistent in every way, including its shape, and how he tried to use it. This year, the same scout called Ramirez a "much smarter pitcher. He used that slider in the right counts and learned to bury it down and in on left-handers and to test the right-handers discipline before challenging them with fastballs."

Time will tell, but if Ramirez took intangible steps this year that didn't show up in the stat lines, I can't ignore those.

He's just 20 and survived the Cal League. No, really, he did more than survive it, his 5.27 ERA in 27 starts was 17th best in the circuit, and not one of the 16 ahead of him are within a year of Ramirez in age, and the majority have him by two or more years.

"I noticed some things in the delivery that I really think will help him," said a pitching coach of a rival Cal League club. "If I remember correctly he was a minimal effort guy and the velocity came easy, but he’s stretched it out a little bit, and it’s quicker, but the velo is still effortless."

The key to an adjustment like that is arm speed, which is critical in creating deception and consistency in the fastball and any secondary pitches.

So while it appears on the surface that Ramirez didn't improve much, nor have a good year, in terms of development, he had a monstrous 2009 and is Prospect Insider's Pitching Prospect of the Year in the Seattle Mariners organization.

But watch out for Michael Pineda in 2010.

Position Player
Injuries, suppressed numbers, regression and the raw lack of premium talent make this decision a tough one, too.
Several bats had big years in the California League, but just like Ramirez survived and then some, the Mavericks hitters thrived and then some, in the wind-aided, warm-aired, elevated surroundings in Adelanto and the rest of the circuit.

There were more worthy candidates to include in the discussion than there were with the pitchers, but making the choice for the Prospect of the Year was just as difficult.

5. Gabriel Noriega, SS (R)
Noriega's ability to make contact is worrisome after a poor year in that area, and his swing is not conducive to power, but he centers the ball well and can certainly play shortstop. His switch-hitting ability took a step forward this year, too, as he showed improvement from the left side.

4. Julio Morban, CF (R)
Morban's place here is impressive -- or questionable if you just look at numbers and realize that he didn't play the field due to a shoulder injury. But he did display more power than expected, possibly due to a small change in his setup that produces a better swing. He gets the nod over Noriega here, despite even worse contact rates, due to the successful change that resulted in the kind of power he'll need to sustain to be a regular in the big leagues.

3. Alex Liddi, 3B (A+)
No, this doesn't mean Liddi is a better prospect than Morban and Noriega, and other not on this list, but he progressed more than any bat in the system with one exception: our winner (see below).

Liddi showed power to right-center field -- consistent, legit power -- that paid off for him in the Cal League. He shortened his swing -- it was even shorter in August then it was in the WBC, says one scout -- which helped him, but his load is still low and long (that's what she said) and the slightly below-average bat speed is why he 1) struck out 122 times and 2) is susceptible to even average breaking balls when he's looking for a fastball since he has to cheat somewhat against good velocity. But he had a hell of a year, and has a chance to improve enough in other areas that his physical limitations may not prevent him from a big-league career.

2. Tyson Gillies, CF (A+)
Tools, tools, tools. Gillies is wiry strong, maybe an 80 runner and if the M's can shorten his swing, he's at least a fourth outfielder in the Shane Victorino mold. I do get word that Gillies' defense is going to be better than Victorino's in center, and his arm may ultimately be equal. Gillies' on-base skills, speed and defense were on display all season, and his line-drive stroke produced more power in the environment formerly known as Earth.

1. Michael Saunders, OF (AAA)
No position player in the system answered more questions this season than did Michael Saunders. Can he make better contact? Yes. Can he show some more power? Check. Can he come back from shoulder surgery and shore up his defense? He did that, too, and he also cleaned up his swing and showed the Mariners that he's adept at making adjustments derived from instruction. He doesn't have a big-time physical tool to lean on, but he also doesn't possess a single below-average skill.

"He's a bunch of 50-pluses across the board," said one AL scout. "A couple of 55s -- running, throwing arm -- and he may develop 55 power, too. That swing looked a lot better in September than it did in May. Saunders is a nice player who just needs time to adjust to big-league pitching the same way he did to Triple-A pitching."

prospects-of-the-year

Comments
The following 35 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: StandinPat on 11-01-2009 17:32:42
Jason,

Two questions...
1) What would you expect out of Saunders in 2010? He was destroying the ball before he was called up, but really struggled after. How much more of an adjustment period do you think he needs before he is atleast average with the bat?

2) Why no Tui in the top 5? I know he missed a bunch of time with injury, but when he was healthy he really impressed in Spring Training, AAA(after he came back), and in his brief stint in the majors. His defense took a huge step forward, while is on base skills and power continue to improve.

2. By: 01v-dubs on 11-01-2009 17:33:40
Hey Jason, been a while since I've commented, but the PI is still a daily read for me.

First of all, nice piece, I could not agree more on your assessments. I'm curious on what your thoughts are on a couple of players. Where do you see Raben starting off next year? Is he expected to be healthy and will he still play the OF? Also, I was wondering what type of hitter you see him becoming? I was thinking a left handed Paul Konerko type, that far off?

Also,who do you see as the M's first baseman of the future, Raben or Rich Poythress? (I'm assuming Raben moves from the of) and what are their eta's?

last one, what are the plans for Hanson position wise? I know he was drafted as a 3B, but it seems to me that he'd fit better at 2B.

Thanks Jason, and keep up the good work

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-01-2009 19:18:25
I'll tackle all of these questions to lead off the chat at 7.

Thanks, guys.

4. By: FWBrodie on 11-02-2009 15:26:49
Is there some place we can go to see this chat?

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-02-2009 20:53:05
Yeah, scroll up to the chat box above and click the PLAY button under the word REPLAY.

6. By: rightwingrick on 11-02-2009 21:56:36
You read it here first: Michael Saunders, American League Rookie of the Year (I think he still qualifies). He'll win it not with super-flashy numbers, but with an excellent all-around offensive and defensive game. Runs, throws, hits, gets on base, gets guys over, gets guys in. And at 25 or 26 years of age, maybe 25 home run power. This guy learns and adapts. And he's 22. I think he's a better prospect than Triunfel.

And (drum roll), Mike Carp may give him a run for his money. But that's based a lot on my faith in Jack Z to read talent, as well as what looks like a natural hitter with plate patience (always a nice combination).

Add Adam Moore to that mix, and possibly Matt Tuiasasopo, and you've got 1) too many rookies, even if they are good, to win it next year; and, 2) a really interesting year to look forward to; and, 3) maybe a reason to just get a couple of vet backups (Hank Blalock and Mark Teahen, anyone...1B, 3B, DH, Outfield)and spend the rest of your dough on a solid #2 starter.

7. By: fresnofan on 11-02-2009 23:20:10
You read it here first: You'll be wrong.

8. By: FWBrodie on 11-02-2009 23:37:35
There's no play button for me Jason, just "watch replay" which opens up the same page in another window.

9. By: Lailoken on 11-03-2009 00:28:20
I think you're clicking on the box in the upper right hand corner, Jason was referring to the box directly above (centered over) the comments section.

10. By: FWBrodie on 11-03-2009 00:38:30
Gracias. You're exactly right.

11. By: FWBrodie on 11-03-2009 01:28:38
Just read the chat Jason, awesome stuff. The Kelly Johnson idea was a new one for me. I was thinking Akinori Iwamura for similar reasons (cheap, no longer needed by current team), but Johnson is a few years younger and would seem to have more upside in his bat. Out of curiosity though, how would you compare Iwamura and Johnson?

12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-03-2009 12:39:13
Iwamura is better on both sides, but he's also going to cost more. I bet Tampa doesn't trade him anyway, as they may need Zobrist to play the outfield again.

13. By: jhess75 on 11-03-2009 13:02:01
Topkin reports that a deal may be in place. If there is one could it be with Seattle?

His source is not with the Rays though, so who knows, I guess if it's true

14. By: Marlin Man on 11-03-2009 13:04:20
I am not convinced that Tui will ever hit at this level, me thinks he'll be back to triple A by end of april

hope I am wrong

MM

15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-03-2009 13:17:23
The Iwamura thing is to the Cubs with Burrell for Bradley.

16. By: Edman on 11-03-2009 13:27:25
Bradley to the Rays will do nothing to step them forward, IMHO. He brings too much emotional baggage with him. He doesn't have what it takes to make a team better. His personal drive is about what's best for Milton Bradley.

Character matters. It may not be everything, but talent without character is simply a machine without purpose.

17. By: slamcactus on 11-03-2009 13:27:46
I can't see needing Zobrist in the outfield as a reason to hold up an Iwamura trade. Even if the Rays don't pick up Crawford's option (which I'm pretty sure they will), they'll still have Upton, Kapler, Joyce, and Fernando Perez already set to make the 2010 squad, and Desmond Jennings is pretty much major league ready as well. Even without Iwamura, the Rays still have the ability to slide Zobrist over to the outfield by plugging either Willy Aybar or Sean Rodriguez in at 2B.

Iwamura's redundant to the Rays and very valuable to other teams. I have to believe that Friedman can think of many ways to put his nearly $5 million salary to better use in 2010. If he can get a couple of decent prospects in return, trading Iwamura is a no-brainer.

18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-03-2009 13:47:04
Kapler and Joyce aren't options for a starting gig in Tampa. You may think they SHOULD be, but they aren't.

It's Jennings or bust out there, if Zobrist is their plan at second, and in talking with them, they don't like Aybar at second in more than spot duty and Rodriguez is a utility player.

So while it certainly makes sense to trade Iwamura, it's not out of financial necessity, nor is he redundant.

And it sounds like even though the Cubs aren't the most recently-rumored landing place, Burrell is going with him.

19. By: slamcactus on 11-03-2009 14:03:37
The Rays just gave Kapler another million dollars to do exactly what he did in 2009. I think that's pretty good evidence they see him as a good right-handed part of a platoon, and will be looking for a guy to pair him up with in RF, at least to start the year. I think you're probably right that they don't see Joyce as an everyday player, but comments Friedman's made to the media recently suggest that they see Joyce as the left-handed part of their RF platoon next year, at least long enough to keep the spot warm for Jennings.

20. By: FWBrodie on 11-03-2009 15:09:48
Wouldn't you think a combination of Zobrist and Rodriguez would be enough to cover most of the second base duties next season? I mean, even if Zobrist spends some time in the OF again, don't you think they would benefit from getting Rodriguez some AB's? Iwamura, Zobrist, and Rodriguez just seems excessive, especially when Iwamura's option is almost $5 million.

21. By: StandinPat on 11-03-2009 15:31:18
"I am not convinced that Tui will ever hit at this level"

And your basing this on what MM? The 22 sporadic at bats he got at the end of the year?

22. By: FWBrodie on 11-03-2009 16:29:03
Iwamura to the Pirates is the latest rumor. Announcement expected tonight.

23. By: Marlin Man on 11-03-2009 16:30:54
Actually Pat- have not been all that impressed with Tui at AAA either- where I saw him more than iN Seattle- I AM A Tui fan- or was anyway- wanted to see him make it- BUT like Is aid, I am not convinced he will be anything but a .220 hitter

WHY do you think otherwise Pat??

M.M.

24. By: StandinPat on 11-03-2009 18:20:02
Lots of reasons, Physical tool are there, good approach, great work ethic, shown the ability to make adjustments, always been young for his league, continues to improve every year against more advanced competion...

Tui absolutely destroyed AAA pitching in his return from the DL, flashing more power AND patience than at any other time, and his numbers in his short call up are deceiving. a .227/.280/.409 doesn't even really tell the whole story as he had a .250 BABIP. Granted its a super small sample size, but sans Tui's 2006(Which should be thrown out for obvious reasons), he's never had a BABIP lower than .330. Even adjusting to a somewhat more reasonable level of .280, that'd push his OPS up into the mid .700's, which honestly is a decent MLB hitter.

Tui's got the physical and the mental part to be atleast decent at the MLB level and more than a ".220" hitter, although throwing that around is kinda ridiculous because it doesn't allude to what kinda of OBP and SLG you might get, AVG is overrated.

25. By: candasharp on 11-03-2009 18:30:18
Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez is the rumor.

Q: Would Mark Lowe have been worth Iwamura assuming Iwamura was healthy?

Or could you package Lowe and someone else for Brignac? If so, who?

Just ruminating aloud ....

26. By: Marlin Man on 11-03-2009 20:00:00
Pat- when I say a ".220" hitter am only trying to show a level of hitting- you seem to be in love with you set of quantitative numbers- then go ahead and use them, but no need to slam someone else who does not.

By the waY, IN MY READING OF YOUR POSTS, i SEE A PERSONAL ATTACK OFTEN- i HAVE A SUGGESTION FOR YOU YOUNG MAN- if YOU DON'T LIKE MY POSTS- DON'T READ THEM, BUT if YOU MUST, NO ONE HAS ASKED YOU FOR YOUR OPINION/APPROVAL OF MY POSTS. lIFE IS TOO SHORT MY FRIEND-WAY TO SHORT TO GET STUCK STANDING AND STARING AT ONESELF IN THE MIRROR.

mm

27. By: FWBrodie on 11-03-2009 20:05:55
Several questions for Jason:

Do you think aquiring a long-term solution at SS (Brignac) would be more valauble to the Mariners than one of their cheap bullpen arms, even Aardsma?

Also, if the Mariners were to shop a package of Morrow and Lopez around, what kind of return do you think they could expect? I know you thought it would take more than that Lopez/Lowe idea Dave Cameron had to snag a starter like Danks. I guess I'm asking how much Morrow would sweeten that deal.

28. By: FWBrodie on 11-03-2009 20:09:01
MM, you just asked Pat for his opinion a few posts ago...
"WHY do you think otherwise Pat??"

Calm down.

29. By: littlelinny6 on 11-03-2009 20:11:06
Jason,
What is your take on Tui? Do you believe he can be the 3B or 2B of the future for the M's or is he better suited to be a utility player? I realize it may be too early to tell but I am curious what other talent evaluators think about his probable upside. Thanks.

30. By: Lailoken on 11-03-2009 21:37:08
Agree that you should calm down MM. If someone asks you questions over the internet:

Example 1: And you('re) basing this on what MM?

Example 2: The 22 sporadic at bats he got at the end of the year?

There is no need to read a tone of voice which isn't in the text over the top of what could very well be casual questions. This is a place where people who love baseball write or read about analysis. Stating an opinion alone will often be followed by questions regarding how you came to that conclusion. Substantive reasoning is useful & goodness knows I've changed my opinion more than a few times by going in depth on a query. Maybe the 22 at bats comment has a tinge of pokiness to it but you did state a somewhat drastic opinion without stating an argument: what did you really expect?

31. By: StandinPat on 11-04-2009 19:40:14
MM,

This a place where people come and discuss all things baseball and Mariners. Did you honestly expect no one to ever engage in a discussion as to why one person feels this way or that about their posts or to disagree with them?

As far as the personal attack thing, the only post that was non-baseball related and went to a personal level was yours. I suggest you go back a re-read post #23 and #24. You asked me, in what I could read in a somewhat condescending manner, what I thought. I then, with no reference to you what so ever, stated why I thought Tui would be a fine hitter.

You then went all ape stuff and got really condescending with your "young man" crap and the stranglehold on the caps lock, making a post that had zero to do with baseball or the subject of Tui's hitting. But you are right about one thing, i shouldn't bother reading your posts or responding to them. Its obvious that you and I will not be engaging in a "Here is my opinion, and this is why i feel that way" sort of discussion.

And lastly, not to be too snarky or anything, but .200 IS a quantitative number.

32. By: Marlin Man on 11-05-2009 11:46:47
Come on Pat- give it a rest, do YOU really think any numbers YOU throw out there are really quantitative? do you really think Sabermetrics is a Quantitaive science, raather than measuring tools????

Ever heard of the Qualatative statement "Opinion"- I doubt it- your problem is you BELIEVE your "opinions" are quantiative in themselves. LOL

Get over yourself, and enjoy baseball- it IS more thaan just the numbers, and yes I ebjoy the numbers of the game also

MM

33. By: Marlin Man on 11-05-2009 11:53:31
and before you start- I suffer from dsylexia, so pls ignore some of my spelling and words that are turned around- I apologize for that.

MM

34. By: StandinPat on 11-05-2009 17:35:21
MM,

I'm not sure you know what those two words mean, or how you jumped to the conclusion that I think my opinions are quantitative. I give a set of numbers, BA/OBP/SLG, OPS and BABIP, ALL of which ARE quantitative numbers, as well as fact and not opinion. Its not my opinion that Tui had a .227/.280/.409 line in his 22 at-bats this year, that's actually what he hit, and his BABIP was much lower than any of his years in the minors sans 2006.

Qualitative would be saying he's not a major league hitter, or that he's an all-star quality bat.

Also, not sure why I'm the one that needs to get over myself when all I did was ask you what you based your opinion of Tui on, you then gave a very short answer and asked me why I felt differently. I then gave you my OPINION why I felt differently and you flipped a gasket, accusing me of going personal, which I had not, and ironically taking things to a personal level yourself, which you've done once again.

I do enjoy baseball MM, hence why I visit sites such as this one, and try to engage people in baseball discussions, such as trying to project what a prospect might do. I also understand that baseball is about more than just the numbers, which is why half of my response to your question of why I felt different pertained to his tools, work ethic and ability to adjust and improve year to year. But I guess its much easier to attack what another person writes if you simply ignore half of it.

Seriously dude, just wanted to have a discussion about baseball...that's all!

35. By: Marlin Man on 11-05-2009 19:09:10
Me Also Pat- just love baseball

What I mean is that when you expound upon thesse "numbers" that are so "quantitative"- they still can not guarantee that the player will perform at that level later- if I have lost ya- just forget it

Gut feelings still have room in baseball is my opinion.

Peace to ya

MM

You are not currently logged in. If you'd like to comment on this report, please log in.
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!