Prospect Insider - Ramblings
Ramblings

By Jason A. ChurchillBy 06-13-2011

This is kind of like ESPN.com's Jayson Stark and his "Rumblings and Grumblings" column, except I will ramble, instead. Make sense?

I want to see Mike Carp, Adam Kennedy, Jack Cust and Justin Smoak in the lineup at the same time, even now with Dustin Ackley still in Triple-A Tacoma.

I can't think of a good reason to use Carp and Cust in an either/or scenario when Carp isn't going to be exposed in left field on every play and he can be replaced late in the game on defense by Greg Halman if the M's have a lead ...

Mauricio Robles has been activated, if you haven't heard already, and I'd bet on him getting back to Tacoma by the end of the month. He will start out in High Desert, however, so the numbers could be ugly early on because he pitches up in the zone and the league is a joke ...

Speaking of High Desert, Dennis Raben hit three bombs Sunday and took over the minor league lead in RBI, garnering him a lot of national attention. I'm still not hearing glowing things about Raben and it appears he's just beating up inferior pitching. He needs to be challenged with a promotion to Jackson soon, as does Vincent Catricala, who has markedly improved his contact rates and will be on the mid-season Top 30 as a result ...

I don't know when Dustin Ackley is getting called up. if I knew, I'd say something. Monday (today) makes sense, but Friday after Tacoma gets back from its long road trip also makes sense and Seattle is at home this weekend versus Philadelphia. If it doesn't happen by then, the Mariners are hiding something ...

No, I'm not impacted in the least by Danny Hultzen's mediocre showing Saturday in the Super Regionals. Scouts tell me that is about as bad as he's looked all year (88-92 mph, fringy command) and he still went 5 1/3 shutout innings in a big game.

The M's have yet to announce any signings as of Monday morning, but don't worry, it doesn't mean anything ...

The aforementioned Mid-season Top 30 will be available for FREE to all subscribers, monthly, annual or forever alike, on June 30. I will post a link on behind-the-wall web page for subscribers to download the PDF. For non-subscribers, it will be $100.00. Kidding, I haven't decided on a price for that yet, or if it will be a subscriber-only piece of content ...

Scout on Erik Bedard from Detroit: "This is the first I have seen him this year, and he looks good, he really does. He's different, though. He's living down in the zone more and he didn't throw a single changeup when I saw him in '09. Today he threw a handful, and he seems to be throwing two different fastballs for strikes" ...

Despite Michael Pineda's hiccup, the Seattle Mariners lead the American League in strikeout rate and walk rate and may presently have the best starting rotation they ever have. There may not be much debate about it ...


ramblings

Comments
The following 19 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1.  By: Edman on 06-13-2011 17:43:59
I'm looking forward to seeing the list of signees. I plan to attend as many Aquasox games as I can. Hultzen will probably head to High Dessert, when he signs (fingers crossed that it's soon), and I expect Miller to start there as well, or perhaps Clinton.

But, some of the rest will likely head to Everett, since so many are college players. Everett will likely start the season with mostly International players up from last years Arizona team, and a few hold-overs from last year.

It should be fun

On a side note, I am disappointed with the new Aquasox ownership. I went to the "Fanfest" a few weeks ago, and it was very lame. The past ownership did a good job of promoting the event. Lots of activities for the kids. But, not so much this year. And charging full game day for hotdogs? Come on, that's pretty lame. $3 for a hotdog?
With last year's NWL Championship, they should have been promoting the team for all it's worth.

Regardless, I love going to the games. It's more a family experience than going to a Mariner game.

2.  By: hendu72 on 06-13-2011 17:45:10
There was also a rain delay during the last Hultzen start. He pitched a couple innings then had to sit for 90 minutes before resuming. That may have played a part in the lack of velocity and command.

3.  By: AntsInIn on 06-13-2011 17:57:41
JAC, question: where is your Bedard Line? How far back do the M's have to be on July 31 before you trade Bedard and other pieces and restock to make a real run beginning in 2012? Also, random question, but who says no first to the following trade idea: Colby Rasmus for Bedard and League?

4.  By: bcsimons on 06-13-2011 18:38:42
Jason,

I was just wondering if you have heard anything about Mariners plans in IFA this year. Badler at BA said something along the lines of them not being as active this year as last. Does that mean they won't sign any big names or just that last year was very active for them and they aren't likely to match that often anyway? Thanks a lot.

5.  By: rocketdawg31 on 06-13-2011 20:28:38


Jason, I had the same question as bcsimons, I am wondering where the M's seem to stand for July 2nd signees in the IFA market.

Hey everybody-

found out through various Google trollings that the Mariners have signed:

10th round- 2B Dan Paolini
11th round- LHP Cameron Hobson
28th round- RHP Brett Shankin
44th round- LHP Josh Corrales
45th round- OF Charles Jimenez (we're loading up on a lot of guys with that last name in the org!)

Hobson's been assigned to Everett, Shankin and Paolini to Pulaski. Corrales and Jimenez are slate to report to Peoria.

6.  By: rocketdawg31 on 06-13-2011 20:37:21


Here's the link on the Paolini news, for those who are curious:

http://www.cbs6albany.com/sports/paolini-1285815-siena-mariners.html

7.  By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-13-2011 22:17:47
On the IFAs: As I wrote -- http://prospectinsider.com/view/m's-out-front-for-international-star" target=new>right here -- Ilian, also referred to as Elian, I believe, is on the M's radar. I have been told twice by two separate sources that ultimately I-L-I-A-N will be the proper spelling, but who knows on that front.

On Bedard: That depends on what I can get for him. I'm not trading him for a B- package. No matter what the relationship, trading players away hinders the chances of re-signing that player after the season and I think Bedard may very well be more valuable on a short-term deal than in trade.

Some team offers an A- prospect? Sure.

8.  By: dewey on 06-14-2011 00:36:06
Jason doesnt Bedard have something like 6-7 million in incentives? Im guessing they wont get better then b- Prospect because of all the incentives the other club will pick up.Also i think he has looked great this year but i guess the old track record proably isnt gonna go away with him of staying healthy and being kind of a bad teamate have you heard this?

9.  By: baseballman on 06-14-2011 01:39:36
Good stuff JAC. It's beyond time to promote Ackley, hopefully only a few more games until he's with the big club.

The IFA should be interesting again this year. The Mariners are always big players it, this year should be no different.

Regarding Bedard, like Jason, a team will have to pay us for him. A middling B- prospect will not get it done because Bedard likes Seattle and if we don't trade him, he's most likely here next year. Unless a team overpays, he stays, IMO, because having a the advantage of re-signing him is pretty big. Speaking of Bedard, he's most likely going to be getting $1 million over his next two games.

10.  By: Edman on 06-14-2011 02:03:36
Agreed that if you don't get something decent for Bedard, there's not value in trading him. He's more valuable to Seattle if nobody is going to give up something decent.

I don't know where the bad teammate comments come from. I haven't heard that his time in Seattle has caused riffs with his teammates. He's a quiet guy, but that doesn't make him a problem in the locker room.

11.  By: Edman on 06-14-2011 02:13:09
Thanks for the info, rocketdawg

12.  By: rocketdawg31 on 06-14-2011 05:22:39


You're very welcome, Edman. I'm guessing that with so many college draftees, our "signs" are gonna be kind of at a trickle. A few here, a few there...instead of a massive whomping amount at once like what St. Louis just did.

I could be wrong on this. I've been right about very little on this whole 2011 draft.

But Virginia just qualified for Omaha, so I'm also guessing negotiations with the 3 Cavaliers we drafted won't even begin until July at the earliest.

13.  By: rjfrik on 06-14-2011 11:23:36
I have a feeling someone is going to overpay for one of our pitchers be it Bedard or Vargas. It always happens. Someone gets antsy and shoots for the moon.


On a side note: Has anyone been watching this Paul Goldschmidt kid? Holy cow. Last year he bombed HRs in the Cal league but he has become a whole different animal this year. Leading AA in nearly every category. I would love to have a player like this and I think Cron could be that player. I'm so envying other teams near ready MLB prospects right now. Dreaming that they were M's.

14.  By: baseballman on 06-14-2011 11:49:46
I agree with rj. A team will give way too much for one of our pitchers. It happened last year with Smoak and Montero being offered for Lee. It was a pipedream to even think about just swapping Lee for either Smoak or Montero, there was just no way we would get either so no one even talked about those two.

Then of course, Jack worked his magic and he had his choice of Montero and Smoak. I can see the same thing (to a lesser extent obviously) happen should we make one of our pitchers available. If we do make a trade and are still in the hunt, it would need to be for young ML ready players that can help us now to offset the loss of what we gave up.

15.  By: Edman on 06-14-2011 11:50:46
rjfrik, that assumes that Seattle is no longer in the race as the deadline nears. If they are, then it is likely that the rotation stays intact.

16.  By: rjfrik on 06-14-2011 13:26:41
Of course Edman

17.  By: dawgncarolina on 06-14-2011 13:59:43
Rjfrik, still think we're a lock to have the first pick in 2012? ;)

18.  By: rjfrik on 06-14-2011 17:46:56
dawg, I truly am amazed by the pitching staff this year. Pineda and Bedard were unexpected and the bullpen has been pretty good as well.

I still think we will have a top ten pick next year. And I think we will regress more towards our mean. But I honestly can say even though I don't think we will be a .500 ball club by years end I'm enjoying the direction of this team. I think they have turned a corner and it's nice to see young guys developing with the big league club. I can only think 2012 is going to be a good year for us. I think we contend from start to finish all year in 2012.

19.  By: rjfrik on 06-15-2011 12:42:04
Keith Law had a good write up about 2012 draft prospects today. Basically he's saying next year obviously won't be as great of a year as this year, especially in pitching, but has a chance to be a bumper crop of bats especially high school bats. Looking at his projected top ten there are 7 bats in there. So maybe next year is the year we add that high upside bat. We shall see.

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