| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 02-17-2010 |
I'm planning on asking these same talent evaluators in six weeks if they got answers to any of their major questions, but this is certainly something I wanted to share.
I asked as many scout types as I could get a hold of this month what, in their opinions, the Mariners should be most concerned about, besides the obvious answer of keeping their key players healthy.
The responses were extremely vast.
"They have tons of holes," said one rival scout. "But there is so much run-prevention there that they will be a pest for everyone.
"They might score four runs a night if they are lucky, but they'll probably lead the league in ERA again, too. Felix is ridiculous -- and there's no chance he's done developing; think about how good he might be if he makes another jump like that.
"They'll make good contact and run with Ichiro and Figgins, but you can get them by pounding their other three starters and forcing them to score runs -- second or third wave (of scoring) isn't going to happen a lot for them.
"How many wins? I'd be surprised if they weren't over .500, but I still think the Angels are the team to beat. They've taken a step back and Seattle one or two forward but I don't think it's quite enough unless they get more offense out of Griffey or Franklin (Gutierrez)... or Kotchman."
"Can I plead the fifth or something? I just got hired and don't want to say anything stupid about my own employer."
"I don't know if these questions can be answered during spring training," one assistant GM said. "But I think they can get a good idea from workouts and the cactus league games...
"I'd start with where in the world they are going to get consistent offense from. Ichiro and Figgins will get on base, but I can't see how they drive them in regularly. They'll have their days -- I think Gutierrez gives them a little more... maybe the upgrades on defense make enough of a difference to win that division.
"I'm paying attention mostly to first base, Milton Bradley and the DH spot -- is Griffey really their starter there? if they go to Bradley and use (Eric) Byrnes in left, how much of a hit does the offense take?
"For me, the lineup has taken a step down, the defense a half-step up and the starting pitching a little better. I say little because can Cliff (Lee) be any better for them than Washburn was through the All-Star break last year? I'm not sure. I think the marginal value Lee gives them during that span is by getting a little deeper into games, and if they are still in it, he's likely to be good all year.
"I'd be looking to get one more starter, and another bat or two, because I'm not sure they can do the 1-run magic again from a year ago. But they'll probably have to in order get to the postseason."
"Three things stick out to me," said one NL special assistant: health, health and health. If they don't suffer significant injuries, I'd bet on Seattle to handle the division, maybe even wire to wire. The Angels are their biggest competition but I think that Seattle club is full of hungry players looking to prove themselves and that's the difference for me.
"Lee is pitching for a contract, Milton Bradley is probably on his last leg unless he performs and stays out of the doghouse and I really like what Kotchman could bring if he's given a full season in which to do put it together. Lots of questions, yes, but Jack gas left it wide open, too. If these guys aren't putting up the numbers, he can go get someone else.
"I like Seattle for at least 88 or 89 wins, and if they can find another mid-rotation starter, they probably run way with the division. And yes, Bedard could end up being that guy."
"I don't think it's just simply about scoring runs, one former GM and current adviser to an NL club said. " They'll have to score more than they did a year ago, but I think it's mostly about how much these fringe guys progress. Take Kotchman at first base. There's more there, and if it comes out this year it's a pretty good score for Jack. Another one is in left field; how much can Bradley play out there and stay healthy and will he hit for some power? They won't get any from short or at catcher, so they'll have to get more from left and first than what those players did last season.
"I think they'll pitch enough, win that division and then probably have trouble against whoever wins the (AL) East in the playoffs."
"I'm not sold, to be honest, said one club's pro scout and special assistant. "I see a team that is hoping a lot goes their way, but I just don't see them getting max results from so many positions that they end up a 90-win club. It just doesn't happen that way. Teams don't win 90 games or more when scoring 650 runs, and they struggled to get to that point last season.
Seattle actually scored just 640 runs a year ago.
"But here's the thing: the division is winnable with fewer than 90, and Zduriencik is never done trying to improve his team. They'll be in it when June and July come, which means they'll add to what they have right now -- and there will be some big bats available at the deadline, including the possibility that Prince (Fielder), Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman become available. And if Tampa is out of it, they will trade Carlos Pena and he'd fit very well into Seattle's lineup."
"In spring training and early in the year I'm watching to see how the production is coming at 1B and DH. If they use Kotchman and (Ryan) Garko right, they could get average offense from the position, and that could be huge for them. And if one of the LHBs (Griffey or Kotchman) can hold their own versus LHPs, Garko can sub for the one that isn't (hitting well against lefties) and it becomes a really, solid few spots for them.
"But funny enough, Griffey might be the key, and yes, I know it's not 1995."
"Seattle may have the biggest range of win-loss in the league," an AL scout and former pitching coordinator said. "You like the pitching, and they have power arms at the back end, but I'd like to see what they with their lineups this spring, because that may be the key -- how much they are willing to platoon these guys. Wakamatsu is getting terrific reviews, and if he can manage a lineup as well as he manages people and teaches, they're the easy favorites.
"I'm very curious to see how their rotation shakes out, since they won't have Bedard until God knows when and they lack a true No. 3... is Rowland-Smith even a real (No.) 4 if he can't give them 28 or 30 starts? He's never done that, so I'm skeptical."
"What will I be interested in watching for this spring from the Mariners? Three words: Ken. Griffey. Junior. If he's as healthy as he was two years ago, man, I think they score 700 runs and win that division by five or more games.
"If they pay attention to the splits and maybe add a bat and veteran starter -- why not pay Jarrod Washburn a few million to give you some reliability and how come Seattle isn't in on Johnny Damon? -- they'll be a nice club. A year away from being a danger to the Yankees and Red Sox, but they might be right there with the Twins and Rays."
scouts-on-what-to-watch-for
Comments
The following 35 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: joshb3 on 02-18-2010 00:44:18 "can Cliff (Lee) be any better for them than Washburn was through the All-Star break last year?" I think you should be looking at Lee as an upgrade over what the M's were during the 2nd half, after they traded Washburn, during which they were still 32-27. Imagine Lee replacing whoever the Mariners sent out as their 5th starter during that span. They'd easily be 2 or 3 wins better after the deadline with just Lee, let alone all of the other upgrades the team has had during the offseason. |
| 2. By: FWBrodie on 02-18-2010 00:44:35 Awesome. I absolutely love reading stuff like this. I hope you do it again and again with different questions. |
| 3. By: rjfrik on 02-18-2010 01:02:56 I agree on all the Griffey comments, if his injuries are really gone and he has a sort of renaissance year, then we could be in for a real surprise. Wishful thinking I guess. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2010 01:23:09 Josh, Mike has a good point on Lee-Washburn. The upgrade may ONLY be for the final 65 games, as even Lee may have problems duplicating what Wash did pre-trade last year. Lee is an upgrade over Washburn, but to what degree if we're just talking about one year versus what Seattle got from Wash last year? Your "2-3 wins better after the deadline with just Lee" argument is not relevant in the discussion of what Mike said, because he didn't say there was an issue of Lee over 2009's No. 5 starter. Just the first half... so the upgrade absolutely has to be tempered or you're just blind and stupid, or a downright homer who refuses to see things how they really are. |
| 5. By: FWBrodie on 02-18-2010 01:31:19 Mike Rizzo? |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2010 01:59:46 I can't tell you who it is and who they work for, but it's not Rizzo. I don't know Mike Rizzo. |
| 7. By: jonbbt on 02-18-2010 02:12:55 Good stuff, amigo. I think the point about how Wakamatsu handles the lineup may be one of the most important observations. I've been worrying about how he might handle the platoon situations. |
| 8. By: joshb3 on 02-18-2010 03:04:43 I'm just saying that I don't think the team is going to be any worse than they were after they traded Washburn, which was still 2 1/2 games above .500. The team still had success after replacing Washburn last year and Lee is obviously going to be better than anybody we previously replaced Washburn with. |
| 9. By: SethGrandpa on 02-18-2010 04:51:58 Why do so many people not look at the Lee/Washburn thing from this perspective: Washburn vastly outpitched his talent in the first half largely because of defense, now a vastly more talented pitcher in Lee gets to pitch with that defense - hence the production will probably be better? |
| 10. By: DKulich44 on 02-18-2010 08:17:37 SethGrandpa, While I definitely agree with you to a point, let's be honest and look at diminishing returns. Washburn lucked himself into a really nice first half, even though his tRA/FIP weren't pretty, he didn't give up many runs. While Lee might have the better peripherals, I don't think we're going to see him run a sub-2 ERA, regardless of how good he is. Yes, its a definite upgrade, but you do have to take into consideration that with luck or not, Washburn didn't give up many runs, and he ended up winning 8 games for them. Lee is a definite upgrade over Washburn, because you don't have to worry about the luck factor nearly as much, but what Washburn did wasn't a mirage, and as far as runs scored against him goes, he was a good pitcher in the first half last year, regardless of how he got there. |
| 11. By: Mekias on 02-18-2010 09:48:05 I'm not sure if I can trust the opinion of the one guy who seemed to think our lineup had taken a step down and that Byrnes could be our everyday LF. We had pretty much the worst offensive production in the major leagues at SS, C, LF, and 3B last year. We were tragically awful at hitting with runners in scoring position. Our OBP was abyssmal. I can't see any way we're WORSE offensively than last year. Some of our "holes" (1B/LF/DH) can becomes average offensively if Wak is willing to platoon Garko and Byrnes against lefties. I'll be honest, I'm a little worried about Wak in this regard. He didn't seem to recognize the advantages of platooning last year and was more than willing to let hitters stay in there against same-sided pitchers. We'll see how things go but I can't imagine us going out and getting guys like Garko and Byrnes and not taking advantage of their abilities. |
| 12. By: chrisd on 02-18-2010 10:17:57 Mekias, I agree. I keep hearing on talk shows and reading how this offense might not be better than last year and they won 87 games. And they lost 12 in a row at one point. There is no way they will have big losing streaks. Over the last few years when we have had horrendous production from DH, 1B (except for 1/2 yr from Russel B), LF, and even 3B (AB has not produced offensively for years). That's half the batting order being horrendous. And we have improved at each position substantially especially if the platooning is done effectively. It is going to be a fun ride. As one scout mentioned some big names might become available at mid-season and we all know Dr Z will be there. |
| 13. By: blissful on 02-18-2010 11:46:32 For the record, in 2009 the Mariners won 85 games and had a season-worst six-game losing streak from May 4 to May 9. |
| 14. By: bilbo on 02-18-2010 11:52:13 When people talk about run production compared to last year I think they forget how many games we ran crap out there in 09 with little to no production at all. Yuni 63 games Kenji 71 games Balentin 56 games Hall 34 games Cedeno 59 games Saunders 46 games Hanahan 50 games Langerhans 38 games I don't have their wOBAs in front of me but the best hitters of that group were Kenji and Yuni. Plus Beltre and Branyan missed 50 games each. Point is, this teams offense and bench, while not world beaters, has improved enough that they should be at least a league average offense. And I think most of us expect they will pick up a MOTO hitter before the deadline. |
| 15. By: Blowgun7 on 02-18-2010 12:04:40 Here is what I don't understand. We won 85 games this year. Most people are projecting the AL West division winner will win between 85-90 games this year. We won 85 games in part because Washburn got results like he was Cliff Lee in the first half. Now with Cliff Lee in the fold. We should get similar performence results wise to what Washburn did in the first half, plus we'll also get that in the second half. So what if Lee gives us just what Washburn did in the first half? We won 85 games in part because of that performence. We've also upgraded the offense, bullpen, and defense. Unless you are a big believer in run differential and consider last years team to have overachieved by 7-8 games, then I dont get why people constantly bring up the Washburn vs Lee argument. If Lee gets the results that Washburn did in the first half, why won't we be on our way to winning at least 85 games again? |
| 16. By: Plaws on 02-18-2010 15:58:07 This is a great resource you've used before and I, like FWBrodie, hope to see a few more of these durng the season. It's always been among the better posts and is certainly more informative than just hearing from M's oddicials. The scouts comments highlight a very interesting range of possible difference makers on the club. I hadn't looked at things quite like this, but the overall quantity of potential breakouts and comebacks seems pretty large. I've heard the Lee-Washburn point made before and it's still valid. Washburn put up an ERA+ of 164 with Seattle in 09 and Lee's Cy Young 08 season was ERA+ 168. Comparing the same with FIP, Washburn 3.87, Lee 2.83. That's a whole run of difference there. I can't say it's impossible for Lee to put up a sub-2 ERA, though I'm not anticipating it...much... One thing about Lee is that while Washburn was a good fit for the park, Lee is exactly the type of pitcher that's the best fit for the park. I'm not expecting better performance (outcomes) than Washburn had early, but it also wouldn't surprise me much if it happened. Part of that is because the defense is superior to what Washburn had behind him. At SS alone we've gone from arguably the worst MLB glove (Yuni) to arguably the best (Jack Wilson.) I'm even interested to see if Lopez can improve his range with the work he's reported to be expected to put in (specifically related to range) as well as having a rangy 1B to cover more of that side. A step forward in defense from Lopez would be huge, but I'm more hopeful of that than expecting it. Mekias, I agree about the offense. I think the one thing they're not definitely better at offensively is hitting HR. This squad could actually hit more overall than last years did, but having that 1 bat with 31HR gone sticks out. Blowgun, I'd be a believer in run differential if it had a higher rate of accuracy. As it is hardly anyone performs W/L wise as those numbers suggest they should. It's a very simplistic set anyway and is better as a basic understanding of roster talent level than the thing to put the most stock into. There are too many factors that can skew the numbers. |
| 17. By: Jackson on 02-18-2010 16:26:54 It would be funny if one of those comments from an assistant GM was Bill Bavasi. |
| 18. By: FWBrodie on 02-18-2010 16:43:57 I think it's encouraging that some of these guys still see upside in Kotchman's bat. |
| 19. By: Slack on 02-18-2010 18:11:25 Jason, Could this years offense get similar results to the '04 offense? If I remember right, Ichiro and Winn got on base a lot that year and they didn't get driven in much. This year, its Ichiro and FIggens without much pop in the middle. The difference I see this year is that a lot more CAN go right and the M's are more flexible |
| 20. By: dewey on 02-19-2010 00:58:55 Jason now that you did this article do you believe the scouts our Tony Belangios stats? |
| 21. By: Edman on 02-19-2010 01:53:24 dewey, it's not scouting vs. stats, it's both. It's like medicine. A doctor gives you a physical and find something that concerns him/her. They do additional testing to prove or disprove their findings. Stats, are the same way. You don't construct a roster with them. But, you do use them to help you evaluate what has been observed. |
| 22. By: dewey on 02-19-2010 05:15:53 The question was for Jason .Edman i asked him ive read your opinions and listened to you flap your gums plenty i wanted his opinion because he put this article out for some reason! So as my mom used to tell me mind your own buisness son until they ask you! |
| 23. By: Edman on 02-19-2010 10:39:21 dewey, you don't want others to respond to you, send him email. Otherwise, it's open to anyone to reply. |
| 24. By: Galway on 02-19-2010 11:02:54 I love the addition of Figgins and signing a 1970's like shortshop in Wilson. Guti to me has some developing still and I expect to be a solid offensive contributor. To get to the 90 plus win level I am concern there is not enough offense. We have subtracted Beltre, and Branyan's bat. My concern is if the 2009 Griffey, Kotchman and Bradley show up in 2010 we may see a lot of innings ending with Ichiro on third and Figgins on first with no runs scored. Not saying that will happen but those are 3 question marks that are slotted for a fair number of AB's. Griffey really can not be worse than 2009 but he is not younger either. Bradley has the ability but no one knows if he will keep it together mentally and Kotchman is really easy to root for but he has to reverse his past two years performance (I think he will but its not a given). So to win the division this offense will have to positively answer these question marks or we will be short. I question the assumption that adding a MOTO bat is a given. If it that easy the M's would not have been struggling to do so for years. A lot of our currency has been spent and MOTO bats are not cheap. I hope we do but taking it as a likely event is making a big leap of faith. |
| 25. By: Schyhart on 02-19-2010 13:41:34 Dewey sounds like he needs a hug. |
| 26. By: dewey on 02-19-2010 20:06:25 I really dont need a hug all i did was ask Jason a question and Edman answerd it! If i asked Edman a question and Jason answered it its still wrong so Edman all im saying is mind your buisness.I am interested to hear his thoughts if thats ok with you it is his site i think? |
| 27. By: Chris Crawford on 02-20-2010 12:26:11 So I did my best, decided to do as little editing as possible, and I see people getting in a fight about answering questions? Come on guys... if someone asks a question for Jason and Jason sees it he'll answer it, it doesn't mean that its not up for discussion. We're better than this. |
| 28. By: FatBat on 02-20-2010 12:45:21 A lot of great comments here. The problem for me when comparing Lee to Washburn is this. Washburn would NOT be able to repeat what he did last year! (IMO) I mean come on! when in his contract did he ever pitch that good? But other than that I think the scouts have the same opinion as us, would like to add that number 3 starter. We have to go into the season with the asumption that Bedard won't be able to help us tell June, Julyish. Another starter would be nice. 2nd, middle of the order bat. A lot of IF's here as I've said before...too many, makes me iffy. Bradley, Griffey,Byrnes,Kotchman,Garko,and Wilson ALL coming off bad years. Having said that I like that the guys they got have a lot to prove, and the Desire to do so. Of all of those I think Kotchman as well could play great dividends! Thanks for the effort Jason, Great read again. I like our chances. |
| 29. By: FatBat on 02-20-2010 13:27:37 Also, what do you guys think of Garko getting time at Catching this year? How do you think he would do and 2nd, how many AB do you think he could get over the season? |
| 30. By: shadow_watch on 02-20-2010 13:39:31 There is one more thng to consider for Lee versus Washburn. That is Lee averaged about 7 IP per start versus 6 for Washburn. That extra inning may translate into using fewer relief pitchers and better quality relief pitchers. With all his success, Washburn really did not win many game in the first half last year. If the offense is improved in terms of scoring just a few more runs, I believe this will translate into more wins for Lee than Washburn achieved. Who knows maybe Lowe won't blow as many games in the 7th inning! |
| 31. By: JHamlin22 on 02-20-2010 19:29:28 What are the chances Mike Sweeney makes the team? I would think not very good... but then why send him the invitation? I had heard that Wakamatsu wanted him to come back as a coach. Anyone heard anything? |
| 32. By: Boise M on 02-21-2010 02:19:17 Wow, real live pro BB men??? Joe Slow Pitch Softball player could have provided such riveting analyses. I really expect better and usually get it here...not often you phone it in like that. |
| 33. By: universalguru on 02-21-2010 11:50:19 Is anyone else of these threads morphing into sabremetrics vs. scouting debates (or sometimes sabre vs. I knows it when I sees it)? Obviously there's a place for both. Neither is a 100% guarantee. |
| 34. By: universalguru on 02-21-2010 11:51:49 I meant to say "sick" of these threads. |
| 35. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-21-2010 12:03:27 dewey, I believe Blengino's stats. Not really. |
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