Prospect Insider - Signing Deadline
Signing Deadline

By Jason A. ChurchillBy 08-15-2011

Monday at 8:59 PM PT is the deadline for the Seattle Mariners and the rest of baseball to get their draft picks under contract. The M's have 39 of 51 players already inked to deals, and a few of them are already making strong impressions in pro ball.

The biggest three are still unsigned, however, including No. 2 overall pick Danny Hultzen, second rounder Brad Miller, a shortstop from Clemson, and third-round choice Kevin Cron, who has already enrolled at TCU and began living on Campus last week.

Hultzen will get done, don't worry about that. And the $13 million rumors? Well, unless it's the biggest botch job a negotiation session has ever seen, that number will not come into play. Trevor Bauer, the No. 3 pick, received $7 million guaranteed -- $3.4 million of that in signing bonuses.

I expect Hultzen to get more than that, but not near $13 million. My best guess would be somewhere between $8 million and $9 million, with a chance of $10 if the club goes five years on a big league deal -- and it will be a big league contract.

Miller shouldn't cost much more than slot, and the No. 62 pick a year ago, Michigan outfielder Ryan Lamarre, received $587, 700 from the Cincinnati Reds. Pick 61, however, received $800,000, so it's possible Miller gets more than the slot recommended range, it's just not likely to hit seven figures, barring another horrible negotiation process.

Cron wants first round money to sign -- I'd pay him, I think he's worth $1.2-1.3 million, though not much more -- but anything south of that appears to be insufficient.

If Hultzen and Miller sign, the Mariners will have done extremely well and despite my distaste for the two picks, there are too many other picks that have signed that I like a lot to dislike the club's draft haul in 2011, including Tyler Marlette ($650K) and the steal of the draft in my opinion, Carter Capps, who signed for $500K.




signing-deadline

Comments
The following 106 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1.  By: southpaw360 on 08-15-2011 12:39:42
You said Capps was the steal of the draft. Where did you see him drafted prior to the draft?

2.  By: skyway park on 08-15-2011 12:44:40
I would rather sign Cron then Miller, thats just my opinion though but it isn't looking good if he's already living in the dorm. Does anybody know of someone sighning after being checked into the school?

3.  By: ghill_3406 on 08-15-2011 12:52:56
Zach Lee was at morning football practice last year with LSU and signed in the afternoon. So, its entirely possible for Cron to be checked in and still sign. TCU has a good track record of recruits that don't sign and they do a very good job of getting them on campus and convincing them to stay, so don't be surprised if the M's have another comp 3rd round pick in 2012.

Let's hold off on calling Capps "the steal of the draft". Sheesh, the kid hasn't even made his first start (tonight) at Clinton. I know he shows big velocity, but his delivery and secondary stuff are still a huge work in progress. As comment #1 said, where did you see him going prior to the draft? Does he have first round stuff right now? Probably not without a secondary pitch to hang his hat on yet.

4.  By: Edman on 08-15-2011 13:01:12
Agree with you about Cron, but I would be surprised if Seattle signs him. I expect that he wants more than $1.2 million. I hope that I'm surprised, but I just have a feeling he's looking for a very big payday.

5.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 13:34:29
I'm thinking Marder is in the discussion for steal of the draft as well.

I'm with you, Jason. I wasn't thrilled with the first two choices, but getting Hicks, Marlette, Capps, Marder, etc later on is hard not to like. If they can snag Cron the draft becomes another bigtime success.

Fingers definitely crossed.

6.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 13:48:14
Did anyone read Baker's blog this morning? He discussed Cron and said Cron had no real place on this team as a RH power hitting 1B...he predicted we wouldn't sign Cron because of that and that Cron might not want to come here because his skill won't translate to Safeco.

I'm not really sure to make of what he wrote. Seems ridiculous to me.

7.  By: Adam P. Boyd on 08-15-2011 13:59:57
What he wrote was asinine; completely baseless conjecture.

Seattle drafted him and 70 power can translate anywhere. Casper Wells has been knocking balls out of the yard - Cron would be fine.

8.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 14:00:05
Screw Baker

9.  By: Edman on 08-15-2011 14:02:55
I rea Baker's article, and it was horribly misplaced.

Richie Sexton, in his first couple years hit a lot of homeruns. It's the stupidest like of reasoning I've seen, and Baker has some doozies.

And, even if he is a righthanded hitter, couldn't other teams use one? You draft for two reasons. One, to fill internal needs. Two, to develop players that you can use in trade to get what other pieces.

They might not sign Cron, but for none of the reasons Baker gives. Sometimes, he should think first, type second.

10.  By: Edman on 08-15-2011 14:04:22
Damn typos....sorry about that.

11.  By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-15-2011 14:15:58
ghill33,

I'll say what I want, first of all. In my opinion he's the steal of the draft at 500k in the supp 3rd. End of story. If you don't like or want my opinions, boy are you in the wrong place.

Please fix that as soon as possible.

12.  By: Lonnie on 08-15-2011 14:24:38
This bugs the crap out of me. The M's throw some significant coin around on international free agents, but appear to go cheap on home-grown HS talent.

16 year old Guillermo Pimentel received a $2.0M signing bonus, but does anyone want say that he is nearly twice as good as Cron? Phillips Castillo got $2.2M, and Martin Peguero initially got $2.9M.

This sounds like madness to me!

Lonnie



13.  By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-15-2011 14:33:11
I don't have any problem at all with refusing to give Kevin Cron $1.5 million or whatever. I think he's worth more than a mil, but that's me, and it's not far off to suggest a million is a bit much.

Cron is one-trick pony, and while that trick is 70 power that DOES translate to Safeco, he's not an elite prospect in any sense of the word.

Lonnie,

The different between Pimentel, Peguero, et al, and Cron or a draftee is that those players can negotiate with anyone. So it's not about what that player's dollar value is, it's what the club can stomach paying him to get him. They are free agents.

And it's never a good idea to take salaries or signing bonus increments and translating them over into how good the player is. A $2 million salary versus a $1 million salary has never, and will never, suggest that the player getting $2 mil is twice as good.

THAT is madness.

14.  By: Mackie on 08-15-2011 14:37:09
@#5, totally agreed on Marder. As a UO grad and fan, I have followed Marder and was thrilled the Mariners got him. He is off to a decent start in A+.

My apologies if you mentioned it before Jason, but what do you see Marder's ceiling as?

15.  By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-15-2011 14:47:33
Average regular big league catcher. Which is darned valuable. I like Marder, more than Hicks.

16.  By: eknpdx on 08-15-2011 14:59:35
Marlette played on the same travel team that Lindor and a few other picks were on. It's safe to assume he got a lot of attention by the M's scout because of that. How much time does a scout typically spend watching a player?



17.  By: slick on 08-15-2011 15:04:11
Hey Jason

non draft question do you have any reports on J. Arias in Clinton. 86K in 53IP 15k+/9IP. Maybe late bloomer?

18.  By: Marlin Man on 08-15-2011 15:19:14
Agree with you on that Jason. As much as I HATE the Ducks- I like Marder better than Hicks also.

M. M .

19.  By: Lonnie on 08-15-2011 15:58:08
Hey slick,

Arias is something of a mess, IMHO. He can throw a wicked curve/slider, but his fastball is dreck. I watched him pitch a few weeks ago on MiLB.tv and I was not impressed at all. You get him up into a level where guys can hit the breaking stuff and it's all over but the crying...

20.  By: nater on 08-15-2011 17:08:07
Glad to hear what you're saying about Hultzen signing, Jason. To hear he was asking for the second biggest draftee contract ever, after Strasburg, seemed completely inexplicable to me, considering Hultzen himself was surprised at being drafted as highly as he was. Funny how some of that stuff gets put out there, probably hoping to skew negotiations in their favor somehow. Hopefully Jack Z hears it and just laughs.


21.  By: nater on 08-15-2011 17:11:12
Interesting, I just saw Cron's brother signed for $1.467. Wonder if that's subconsciously a benchmark at all for little brother in the negotiations.

22.  By: Adam P. Boyd on 08-15-2011 17:26:08
Dan Vogelbach, Cubs 2nd Round HS/1B Florida commit, signed for $1.6m

23.  By: ghill_3406 on 08-15-2011 18:06:08
Hey Jason-

In response to your #11 comment. Your absolutely right you have the right to say whatever you want its your blog, and I absolutely have the right to disagree and have my own opinion. I'm not looking to "pick a fight" with you, but it's pretty simple that if you don't want people to disagree with you from time to time, then #1 don't publish a blog, #2 don't allow a comments section and #3 delete my comment like you probably will do to this one.

Fix this

24.  By: TXMariner on 08-15-2011 18:06:53
Checking into the dorm at TCU could be a negotiating ploy. I guess we'll find out soon. I'd really like to see Cron get signed since this organization is starving for power even if he is a one trick pony.

25.  By: hit and run on 08-15-2011 18:55:33
While we're waiting to hear news of prospect signings, here's some news about prospects we already have in the bag. In their last outings we had five pitchers, one from each of our top five levels, go at least 7 innings with no BB's and at least 7 K's. Check this out.

Jose Campos 8 IP 0 BB's 7 K's
Anthony Fernandez 9 IP 0 BB's 9 K's
Nathan Reed 8 IP 0 BB's 7 K's
James Paxton 7 IP 0 BB's 10 K's
Erasmo Ramirez 8.1 IP 0 BB's 11 K's

(If you are wondering, they gave up a total of 5 earned runs)

In fact in their last ourtngs, we had twelve starters in our system give up 1 or less BB's with a total of 82 IP, 6 BB's (!) and 85 K's (Starters were Walker, Kohlscheen, Butler, Elias, Fernandez, Campos, Paxton, Reed, Ramirez, Stanton, Carraway and Hensley). You may have noticed that includes the entire Clinton rotation.

Is the Mariner farm system suddenly emphasizing control or something? . . . Nah, probably just a freak coincidence; but a happy one. : )

26.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 19:17:11
23 - there's a difference between disagreeing and telling the blog author what to do. You can disagree all you want. Telling the guy who put this post up here for free what he should or shouldn't say is totally different.

Don't be a douche.

27.  By: krob4mvp on 08-15-2011 19:18:48
A buddy of mine who is a beat writer for the Mariners told me we offered Cron 1.5 million and he turned it down. I don't know what he's looking for but it sounds like the kid had his heart at TCU. Crazy!

28.  By: shemberry on 08-15-2011 19:28:40
A buddy of mine who works at McDonald's said they are offering 20 piece McNuggets for $4.99.

29.  By: rotoenquire on 08-15-2011 19:28:43
Vargas has cleared waivers. Jason you hearing anything on a deal? The Brewers and Arizona would seem to be good fits. They are watching the purse and have some nice talent on the farm...

Hultzen is a must get. Rumors are out there that Hultzen was JakZ's guy and he went against scouts advice and drafted him. JakZ will pay.. Also what about the rumors Jakz's job maybe on the line this off season... Ownership has there heads up there butts if that is the case...

30.  By: masonb on 08-15-2011 20:43:32
ghill,

Not to pile on you buddy, but do you perhaps get paid by a network or organization to scout players? You do realize that Jason makes a living scouting tons of players. How arrogant can you be to come on someone else's blog and bitch about their opinion when I'm sure you are no more qualified than I am to dispute it?

Jason,

Do you have any idea on when the PTBNL from the Fister trade could be named? Sometime this week?

31.  By: bhenken08 on 08-15-2011 20:55:20
@30 I asked him on twitter earlier and its the 20th its due by




32.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 21:18:10
Per Larry Stone's twitter:

"No word yet on Danny Hultzen, though there are rumblings that eighth-rounder Carson Smith, RHP from Texas State, is close"

33.  By: JonathanAicardi on 08-15-2011 21:29:21
Carson Smith is another key guy. Big arm with potentially two out pitches from the pen. That's a value at 8 I'd take any day. Hopefully they nail him down.

34.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 21:56:25
Per CJ Cron's twitter:

"Looks like the brother is going to be a Frog. Unless something drastic changes"

That really sucks. Could be a move to try and squeeze a bit more out of the Mariners, or it could be genuine. We'll find out in 1 hour.

35.  By: shemberry on 08-15-2011 22:09:34
So, can we officially say that Carp is going to be a contributor on this team? I don't think he's an All Star or anything like that, but he sure seems like he can be part of a playoff caliber Mariners team.

36.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 22:28:29
Per Jason's Twitter, he has a source reporting that Miller signed. Looking for confirmation.

37.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 22:28:29
Per Jason's Twitter, he has a source reporting that Miller signed. Looking for confirmation.

38.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 22:33:22
Sorry for the double post, not sure how that happened. And the "looking for confirmation" part is from Jason's Twitter, as well. Sounds like I was saying that I'm trying to confirm, which isn't the case.

39.  By: sexymarinersfan on 08-15-2011 22:37:23
What is Jason's Twitter name? I seem to have a hard time finding his account as I am new to Twitter.

40.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 22:40:43
@ProspectInsider

41.  By: Missthosepilots on 08-15-2011 22:42:53
Dawg, thanks for the info!

42.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 22:43:34
Yw guys, definitely recommend following Jason on Twitter for days like this

43.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 22:46:52
Multiple sources now reporting Brad Miller and Carson Smith have signed with the M's. No bonus info yet.

44.  By: safecochatter on 08-15-2011 22:49:43
Amazing...15 minutes to go and mlb trade rumors says 22 1st rounders unsigned...talk about trying to squeeze the last nickel.


45.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 22:49:46
T Minus 10 minutes and counting...

46.  By: Missthosepilots on 08-15-2011 22:54:07
Hope for a smooth take off and landing. I think for pitchers it gets very risky to not sign and then hold out for more...

47.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 22:56:52
Meanwhile, Carter Capps with a solid debut. 6 K's to 1 BB in 4.2 IP. Gave up 3 runs on 5 hits, but a pretty nice debut, especially considering he'd been closing on the Cape. 5 groundouts to 2 flyouts as well.

48.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 22:59:34
And I just used debut twice in 1 1/2 sentences. #signingdayfatigue

49.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 23:03:14
Jon Heyman is reporting that the Pirates got Josh Bell. Good for them

50.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 23:04:19
Nats signed Purke, Reds signed Stephenson...I thought all 3 of those would not sign

51.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 23:06:51
Pirates got Cole for $8 mil via Heyman...Hultzen better had signed for less than that

52.  By: shemberry on 08-15-2011 23:08:56
Medical school?

53.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 23:09:07
Larry Stone just reported we got Hultzen!

54.  By: sexymarinersfan on 08-15-2011 23:10:56
Hultzen gets $8.5 mil $6.35 guaranteed!!!! Woohoo!!

55.  By: Missthosepilots on 08-15-2011 23:11:26
Thanks all for the updates. Good news!

56.  By: shemberry on 08-15-2011 23:12:17
Glad to get him, 6 aces in the system? Felix, Pineda, Hultzen, Walker, Paxton, Campos. Trade 2 of em for an All Star hitter?

57.  By: safecochatter on 08-15-2011 23:12:23
hultzen 8.5 possible 10.6.... overpaid!

58.  By: marinermutt on 08-15-2011 23:14:53
No word on Cron or the kid from Germany?

59.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 23:15:29
Really safeco? Who cares, is it your money? no...

60.  By: danviens on 08-15-2011 23:17:37
I have never, and will never care what the Mariners pay to get a kid. I want my team to win, I want talent.

I'm thrilled to death with what they got done!

61.  By: JonathanAicardi on 08-15-2011 23:19:14
He's a pretty safe bet to at least become what would cost 10-12 mil per year on the open market. So, you know, blessings.

62.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 23:19:50
Cron to TCU, Cohoes to JUCO.

63.  By: teddyb on 08-15-2011 23:23:18
Im pretty sure Cohoes is going to ohio State

64.  By: marinermutt on 08-15-2011 23:25:20
Was hoping for Cohoes. Don't really know much about him except he seemed like a sleeper type and our system needs hitters. Heard he was fast also.

Cron, I'm not all that disappointed. Sure it would be nice to have, but power is his one calling card. From the description of Cron that I heard, reminds me of a Greg Pirkl, former M's farmhand.

65.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 23:25:20
RE 62: For as excited I am about all the other picks we've signed, I still wish we got those two.

RE 63: It was reported he's going JUCO so he can be draft eligible for next year.

66.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 23:26:35
Cohoes HAS SIGNED!!

67.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 23:27:02
Sounds like we did get Cohoes!


68.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 23:28:02
I have had an irrational excitement about Cohoes since the draft. I'm way more excited than I should be.

69.  By: marinermutt on 08-15-2011 23:29:11
Will we get a comp pick for Cron for next year?

70.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 23:30:01
RE 68: me too. I have no idea why, but he has been the most intriguing pick for me in our entire draft.

71.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 23:30:44
RE 69: Yes, it will be at the end of round 3. Just like last year when we didn't sign Stanek, we got the 3rd round comp, where we took Capps.

72.  By: marinermutt on 08-15-2011 23:35:20
Watching baseball america twitter feed and a lot of $$$ are being spent tonight. Any word on what Miller got? Wonder how close to Jason's guess in the article.

73.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 23:35:24
Mike Carp is on fire

74.  By: baseballman on 08-15-2011 23:36:44
We got Miller for $750K per Jim Callis

75.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 23:36:46
Callis reporting Miller got $750K

76.  By: marinermutt on 08-15-2011 23:37:55
What a nice story Carp has been the 2nd half of the year. Most everyone had given up on him as a AAAA type player. Proving with regular playing time that we might have something for this year and years to come.

77.  By: Edman on 08-15-2011 23:38:08
Just curious, safecochatter, would you have been happier if the M's had taken a hard line and not signed Hultzen, or would you be taking the counter approach that they failed to sign their first round draft choice.

Just goes to show, no matter how good the news, someone will find something not to like.

78.  By: Edman on 08-15-2011 23:39:03
Casper and Carp......sounds like a 70's TV show.

79.  By: Missthosepilots on 08-15-2011 23:40:01
Carp started off with the .250 look again. Love baseball where a guy hangs in there and finally matures as a player. I hope we signed some more tonight. Great info and comments everyone.

80.  By: sexymarinersfan on 08-15-2011 23:43:26
So is Casper!!

81.  By: StandinPat on 08-15-2011 23:44:17
I feel like Wells has a decent shot of being worth giving up Fister for all by himself.

My goodness it seems so weird seeing offense from the Ms

82.  By: shemberry on 08-15-2011 23:46:13
Robinson, Carp and Casper are exciting. I like the collection of guys Jack has assembled.

83.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 23:46:38
John Manuel reports that rumors are Cohoes got 7 figures. Nothing confirmed yet, though.

84.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-15-2011 23:46:40
John Manuel reports that rumors are Cohoes got 7 figures. Nothing confirmed yet, though.

85.  By: marinermutt on 08-15-2011 23:49:41
So maybe part of Cron's dollars went to Cohoes.

86.  By: Edman on 08-15-2011 23:54:08
By my count, Seattle signed 27 of their top thirty draft picks, which isn't bad.

I wish we could have signed Cron, but the counter side to it is that it kept another team from drafting him who might have been willing to spend insane dollars. And we should get a compensation pick next year.

This was a deep draft, which is evident by the abnormally large number of over-slot signings. Seattle spent a lot of money signing draftees.

Hard not to see a brighter future.

87.  By: baseballman on 08-16-2011 00:03:23
All in all (and we have to wait until Aug 20 at the latest) we've added quite a bit of young and very good talent this year. With how well he did during the trade deadline, the draft and IFA. We are in a good place.

88.  By: Missthosepilots on 08-16-2011 00:06:59
I understand giving the Custs of the world a chance but it is great to see fresh faces rather than retread aging free agents. Remember that when we are happy about the results of the Fister trade, there were many that thought Fister was nothing but an AAAA pitcher. Baseball requires some patience and handling players in a right way. Now the fruit of the labors can be seen. Well done in that Jack!

89.  By: d2ret on 08-16-2011 00:31:57
Looking at the trade in total, I think we absolutely pulled a fast one on Detroit.. This trade looks to me, on the same level of quantity+quality as the Puetz deal turned out to be. (Carp now a ML hitter, and many forget, Ryan was obtained for Cleto who came from the Mets)

90.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-16-2011 00:39:04
Not sure we'll ever see a deal that turns out better for the M's than the Putz deal. Gutierrez, Vargas, Carp, Ryan...just an incredible haul. How often do you get four major league regulars or starting pitchers from the players acquired in one trade?

I like the Fister deal a lot, but I doubt we'll see the quantity or quality impact we did from the Putz trade. It's highly unlikely that any of them will turn in a season as good as Guti did in 09.

That said, it's looking like a very nice deal. I love the Bedard trade, too.

91.  By: afortunada on 08-16-2011 00:58:49
What was the reasoning behind taking Brad Miller?

92.  By: d2ret on 08-16-2011 01:03:19
yes, a center fielder with that much value in a deal is hard to compare with, but it looks quite likely we could have 3 major league regulars from this trade, and even possibly 4 if we're lucky enough. Plus i like the upside aspect of the trade with martinez/ruffin

93.  By: sexymarinersfan on 08-16-2011 01:09:12
Any chance Trayvon Robinson or Brad Miller become the leadoff hitter of the future? Or is Miller more like a #2 hole guy like Wilson or Ryan?

94.  By: sexymarinersfan on 08-16-2011 01:13:06
One more thing. I hope Saunders can figure it out like Carp did. Any chance that he still has enough time? Has he been making any progress and could he possibly be included in a trade now that we have more outfield depth? Thanks.

95.  By: safecochatter on 08-16-2011 01:38:31
86
Cron??

Just goes to show, no matter how good the news, someone will find something not to like.

96.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-16-2011 02:29:21
93 - Not likely to be Trayvon, as he doesn't make enough contact to fit the traditional leadoff profile. Miller could be I guess, but that's being very optimistic.

97.  By: maqman on 08-16-2011 11:00:08
sexymarinersfan Re: Saunders. He's got a 1.027 OPS in his last 10 games and a .891 OPS in 137 ABs in Tacoma.

98.  By: Edman on 08-16-2011 11:38:14
I'm sure nothing had changed with the rounds from 31-50, but I wonder if any lower picks got signed before the deadline? It would be easy for them to get lost with everything else that was going on.

99.  By: Adam T on 08-16-2011 11:39:00
Jason - any word on when we'll know who the PTBNL in the Fister deal will be?

I'd imagine it would be very soon - we'd want to get this guy in the Mariner org. officially as quickly as possible.

100.  By: shemberry on 08-16-2011 11:46:45
#99-
Jason said on his Twitter that the deadline for the PTBNL is August 20.

101.  By: Lonnie on 08-16-2011 14:14:32
shemberry,

I don't mean to nitpick, but the 20th is the *soonest* that the PTBNL can be announced. I fully expect them to make that announcement on that day though.

In chatting with Jason, he told me that we could easily see Ruffin chosen and have him report straight to the Mariners.

102.  By: shemberry on 08-16-2011 15:18:27
Lonnie,

Look at Jason's Twitter again, 20th is the deadline, not the soonest.

103.  By: marinermutt on 08-16-2011 15:19:57
Any word on what Cohoes bonus was?



104.  By: slick on 08-16-2011 15:41:15
650k

105.  By: dawgncarolina on 08-16-2011 19:03:56
650k is a far cry from seven figures. I like that we got him for that.

Hopefully whatever money they were offering Cron can be reallocated to the international market.

106.  By: Lonnie on 08-17-2011 06:35:48
shemberry,

I reserve the right to be wrong and to prove it...

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