Prospect Insider - Soft Tossing Felix

Soft Tossing Felix

By Adam H. Wong

By 04-07-2012

All this talk about Felix Hernandez losing velocity has moved fans from an excited state to a curious purgatory. If you haven't heard, Felix is sitting around 89-90 miles-per-hour on his fastball, down from his typical 93-94 mph. Some thought that he may have just been easing his way into the season, but over the past week, the welling of confusion came to a frothy head.

On one hand, it's something to be worried about. It may not warrant serious concern, but a drop in velocity could be a symptom of a handful of things. Maybe he's masking an injury, maybe it's something mechanical. All's quiet on the clubhouse front, so it's hard to say right now. On the other hand, the results he's produced while he's had this "lost" velocity seem to be in line with typical Felix stuff. Jokingly, he said he just wanted to be like Jamie Moyer. And although that may have been simple PR deflection, Felix usually comes through as a transparent person. He hasn't hidden an injury before, and with the Michael Pineda situation gaining momentum in New York, it would be an untimely habit to pick up.

Tonight, his velocity was still down, but he put up alright numbers. He struck out seven batters and only walked one, but he left the fastball up and he got hurt by it. It wasn't the Felix Seattle fans are accustomed to, but it wasn't terrible. It still looks like his fastball is a bit flat and it's not getting as much movement as it's gotten in the past.

So rather than panicking and obsessing over the possibility of Felix being injured, I decided to look into something. I wondered how many right-handed pitchers have had success sitting right on the precipice of 89 and 90 mph with their fastball.

Fangraphs will be my main source of data, and their data on velocity goes back to 2002. To get a decent sample size, we'll take information from the 2001 season to the 2011 season. I realize that because of this, there will be holes in the research. The site has Pedro Martinez's average fastball velocity at 88.8 mph, but that excludes his dominant 1999 and 2000 seasons. There won't be as many holes in this article as there are in Carlos Peguero's swing, but they'll be there, and it's something to be mindful of.

RHP - 89-90 MPH
Player	L/R	IP	Age	SO	K/9	WHIP	WAR	xFIP	FBv
Jon Garland	R	2013.2	31	1082	4.84	1.37	22.8	4.58	90
Ryan Franklin	R	1189.2	38	662	5.01	1.32	3.6	4.85	89.9
Jeff Weaver	R	1474.1	33	964	5.88	1.37	18.2	4.51	89.8
Russ Ortiz	R	1169.2	36	786	6.05	1.47	11.4	4.94	89.7
Joel Pineiro	R	1735	32	1048	5.44	1.34	23.1	4.17	89.6
Jered Weaver	R	1131.2	28	977	7.77	1.16	24.3	4.06	89.4
Matt Morris	R	1422.1	33	952	6.02	1.33	22	4.17	89.4
Joe Blanton	R	1243.2	30	812	5.88	1.35	18.1	4.27	89.3
Rodriogo Lopez	R	1319.2	35	846	5.77	1.41	12.9	4.42	89.2
Odalis Perez	L	1231.1	31	833	6.09	1.32	16.3	3.96	89.1
Brad Radke	R	1139.1	33	662	5.23	1.23	21.5	4.19	89
Paul Maholm	L	1143.2	29	705	5.55	1.42	13.9	4.22	89

And it's a pretty unremarkable group. With a qualifier of at least 1000 innings pitched, we have Rodrigo Lopez and Joe Blanton at the bottom. Both have an xFIP well over 4.20, while Lopez was worth 12.9 Wins-Above-Replacement over this time frame and Blanton was worth 18.1 WAR.

Jeff Weaver and Jon Garland round out the top. Unsurprisingly, both pitchers had an xFIP over 4.50, with Weaver being worth14 WAR and Garland worth 22.5. Weaver never could maintain consistency, and Garland is still trying to win a job, so it makes sense that a collective sigh is heard when these names are muttered.

The outlier of this group is Jered Weaver. The data has his average fastball at 89.4 mph while he was worth 24.3 WAR. With Weaver's recent influx of success, it's encouraging to see that a right-hander is able to be efficient enough with a sub 90s fastball. Mixed with enough deception, which Weaver gets plenty enough from the extreme third base side of the rubber, he's been able to be worth over 5 WAR over the past two seasons.

If we expand the group to include left-handers, we can see that not much changes the trend of the data set. Dontrelle Willis pops up, but with such an erratic career, it's hard to pinpoint any�semblance�of success on his from this length of data. Wandy Rodriguez and Odalis Perez pop up as the only two pitchers to have an xFIP of under 4.00 within this group.

RHP and LHP - 89-90 MPH
Player	L/R	IP	Age	SO	K/9	WHIP	WAR	xFIP	FBv
Jon Garland	R	2013.2	31	1082	4.84	1.37	22.8	4.58	90
Ryan Franklin	R	1189.2	38	662	5.01	1.32	3.6	4.85	89.9
Jeff Weaver	R	1474.1	33	964	5.88	1.37	18.2	4.51	89.8
Russ Ortiz	R	1169.2	36	786	6.05	1.47	11.4	4.94	89.7
Joel Pineiro	R	1735	32	1048	5.44	1.34	23.1	4.17	89.6
Dontrelle Willis	L	1221.2	29	896	6.60	1.43	16.3	4.39	89.5
Jered Weaver	R	1131.2	28	977	7.77	1.16	24.3	4.06	89.4
Wandy Rodriguez	L	1176	32	1004	7.68	1.35	15.9	3.93	89.4
Matt Morris	R	1422.1	33	952	6.02	1.33	22	4.17	89.4
Eric Milton	L	1003.2	33	697	6.25	1.35	9.1	4.79	89.4
Joe Blanton	R	1243.2	30	812	5.88	1.35	18.1	4.27	89.3
Rodriogo Lopez	R	1319.2	35	846	5.77	1.41	12.9	4.42	89.2
Odalis Perez	L	1231.1	31	833	6.09	1.32	16.3	3.96	89.1
Brad Radke	R	1139.1	33	662	5.23	1.23	21.5	4.19	89
Paul Maholm	L	1143.2	29	705	5.55	1.42	13.9	4.22	89

Finally, if we look at the extremes of the data sets, we can see some interesting things happening. It's no surprise that Justin Verlander tops the velocity charts. Felix and Verlander are strikingly similar, with the biggest difference being the gap between each player's xFIP. The K/9 and WHIP found in the upper extreme is markedly better than those in the sample set as well.

Expanded Velocities
Player	L/R	IP	Age	SO	K/9	WHIP	WAR	xFIP	FBv
Justin Verlander	R	1315.1	28	1215	8.31	1.19	32.4	3.80	95
Felix Hernandez	R	1388.1	25	1264	8.19	1.22	32.7	3.31	94.4
Kerry Wood	R	1067.2	34	1211	10.21	1.24	18.1	3.78	94.4
...
Jon Garland	R	2013.2	31	1082	4.84	1.37	22.8	4.58	90
Ryan Franklin	R	1189.2	38	662	5.01	1.32	3.6	4.85	89.9
Jeff Weaver	R	1474.1	33	964	5.88	1.37	18.2	4.51	89.8
Russ Ortiz	R	1169.2	36	786	6.05	1.47	11.4	4.94	89.7
Joel Pineiro	R	1735	32	1048	5.44	1.34	23.1	4.17	89.6
Dontrelle Willis	L	1221.2	29	896	6.60	1.43	16.3	4.39	89.5
Jered Weaver	R	1131.2	28	977	7.77	1.16	24.3	4.06	89.4
Wandy Rodriguez	L	1176	32	1004	7.68	1.35	15.9	3.93	89.4
Matt Morris	R	1422.1	33	952	6.02	1.33	22	4.17	89.4
Eric Milton	L	1003.2	33	697	6.25	1.35	9.1	4.79	89.4
Joe Blanton	R	1243.2	30	812	5.88	1.35	18.1	4.27	89.3
Rodriogo Lopez	R	1319.2	35	846	5.77	1.41	12.9	4.42	89.2
Odalis Perez	L	1231.1	31	833	6.09	1.32	16.3	3.96	89.1
Brad Radke	R	1139.1	33	662	5.23	1.23	21.5	4.19	89
Paul Maholm	L	1143.2	29	705	5.55	1.42	13.9	4.22	89
...
Greg Maddux	L	1690.1	42	1021	5.44	1.19	30.9	3.72	84.7
Jamie Moyer	L	1938	47	1143	5.31	1.28	19.3	4.65	81.6
Tim Wakefield	R	1882.1	44	1284	6.14	1.30	25.3	4.77	74.1

The three pitchers at the bottom are no surprise, either. However, while their averaged K/9 rate of 5.63 is just a bit lower than the average K/9 rate of 6.00 for the sample group, their WHIP is much better. Between Maddux, Moyer and Wakefield, the pitchers have an average WHIP of 1.26, while the sample group has a WHIP of 1.348. Once again, no surprise that pitchers that favor control and location over velocity would have a better WHIP, it's just interesting to see how more velocity can help a pitcher, but it isn't necessarily�guaranteed.

As mentioned earlier, with data only going back to 2002, there are limitations to what we can find. We already know that a combination of velocity and deception positively affect pitch results. Pedro Martinez is one pitcher I'd like to dig deeper into his velocity, but what about pitchers like Greg Maddux or Livan Hernandez early in their careers? Most right-handers that live in the high 80s are probably the outlier of success rather than the rule, but it's interesting to there are only a handful of pitchers that sit under league-average velocity and find consistent success.

Felix's results have been Felix's typical results. The velocity just hasn't been there, not yet. It's unnerving to look at the quality of pitcher that exists between 89 and 90 mph, and although the sample size is extremely small, it isn't exactly the best of company. There's a lot of time between now and when Felix makes his next start. We can either worry about his performance and lack of velocity, or hope that he'll surprise us.

Here's hoping.

Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at�wong@prospectinsider.com.�Follow him on Twitter�here.

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Comments
The following 7 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: malcontent1 on 04-07-2012 23:22:17
I don't understand why you're putting the bench mark at 89-90. Brooks has Felix's fastball at about 91.5 (admittedly right now, Felix has the measuring systems confused and that's a cumulative average between several pitches, and more than likely some are buried amongst the change ups, but still, his average velocity on the hard stuff must have been over 90). When you expand the list up to 92, you get Kevin Milwood, Roger Clemens, Cliff Lee, Johan Santana, James Shields, Cole Hamels, Tim Hudson, Bartolo Colon, Carlos Zambrano, and John Lackey. Yes, you still have your share of chumps like Sydney Ponson, Jose Contreras and Carlos Silva. The loss of velocity is worrisome, but not necessarily as scary as you make it seem.

2. By: maqman on 04-08-2012 06:19:26
I think the odds are better that Figgy turns into an offensive force than those for Felix becoming a noodle arm. He was probably in shock from the run support he got. Sleep well, Felix is still King.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-08-2012 11:27:50
In Felix's final spring start and after the second inning Saturday night, his average fastball was exactly 90.

End of confusion, malcontent.

4. By: micahjr on 04-08-2012 14:37:42
Felix has also worked in a cutter. Confusion back, somewhat.

Felix appears to be throwing his fastball 90-92. Last year he was 93-96. I haven't really seen his two-seamer as much as previous years, either. If he's still throwing this speed at the end of April, I might be concerned. His results have been pretty good, outside of not having it on Saturday and Delabar screwing up in colossal fashion.

What the heck was that stupid pitch, Delabar? Cespedes hits a 460 foot home-run the night before, yet you don't think that he can hit a fastball down the pipe? He should have walked him. First base was open, the next hitter was less of a threat.

On Yoenis, every one of his homers is on a pitch right down the middle, and he has struck out in half his at bats. Just pitch him low and he'll get himself out. Use breaking balls to set up the FB, not the other way around.

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-08-2012 15:07:49
These are the facts:

Felix's fastball, by all accounts, averaged 93-94 last season. Not 96.

Felix's fastball has averaged just over 90, but less than 91, in his last two starts -- versus Colorado in Arizona and Saturday versus Oakland.

The fastball velocities we are speaking of here are not being confused with changeups or cutters. I watched both starts from pitch 1 to the final pitch and charted every single one in between. There IS a differential in velocity, and it's significant enough on which to keep an eye.

micahjr,

Ever think maybe Delabar didn't purposely throw a fastball down the middle? I mean, how often is that the goal in any situation to any hitter that has any power at all?

6. By: micahjr on 04-10-2012 19:52:16
Of course he didn't mean to throw it down the pipe. Doesn't mean he should have given him any fastballs at all. Cespedes hasn't proved he can hit any kind of non-grooved pitch. He's the only guy with murder power on Oakland. The Mariners are too walk averse sometimes. I think they have more hit batsmen than walks this year, which is ridiculous on two counts.

I'm sure you are right on his fastball velocity from last year. He was 93-96 when I saw him pitch, which wasn't nearly as much as I would have liked. I'll be keeping an eye on his fastball, I'm just not ready to make any kind of panic conclusion.

7. By: rotoenquire on 04-11-2012 11:33:20
I have been watching a lot of baseball the last few days. I was watching Kershaw pitching and the broadcasters for the other team was talking about Kershaws drop in velocity. Also covered some other players including Felix. They were saying all the use of cutters, sliders and other pitches account for the loss in velocity of players fastballs. Players are realizing they don't need that 99 mph fastball to be a good pitcher. And in doing so are using there fastball less and lsoing velocity. So with Felix I would not be worried. Hittiing the low 90s is no reason for real concern Felix starts averaging 85 then we need to worry.

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