|By Chris Crawford||By 01-28-2013|
|1. By: MarinersArmy on 01-28-2013 22:02:46|
I'm a bit worried if Noesi made the team. I'm really hoping they'll pick up another SP here soon. My preference... signing Chris Young or trading for Capuano. Please Jack, get it done...
Question for anyone out there: If the M's signed both Bourn and Lohse, would they lose two draft picks? A 1st and 2nd? Or...???
Not saying they will sign them, just curious on how it plays out if you sign multiple players that were tendered that 13 million dollar offer...
|2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-28-2013 23:01:17|
Yes, that is how it would work.
|3. By: furlong on 01-29-2013 06:21:48|
I reserved a room on HiWay 17 in December for less than $30.00 a night. That price has now doubled. I am also driving down.
|4. By: leos_world on 01-29-2013 06:59:52|
How come your kinda down on Erasmo? Just wondering, cause last year I thought he looked great. Am I missing something? I really thought he earned a spot with last years performance.
|5. By: Paul Martin on 01-29-2013 08:23:06|
Wish the M's would sign Joe Saunders. The lefty has a career 2-0 record and 2.13 ERA at Safeco. He played well against Texas and the Yankees in the playoffs last year. He is only 31, younger and more accomplished than a guy like Guthrie that the Royals threw 3 years and a ton of money at.
We have the money in the budget, and the rotation really needs an established veteran to plug in and eat some innings. I bet a 2 year deal at around 8-9 million a year gets it done.
Best of all, we don't have to trade any of our prospects or lose a draft pick to do it.
Also, just say NO to Bourn!!! He batted .274 in the NL last year. Switching leagues to the AL and hitting at Safeco, he probably hits around .250. Speed guy is on the down side of his career, and with Boras as his agent he is going to get at least 4 years and at least 48 million. Let someone else make that mistake. Then you take the loss of draft pick, slot $$$ with the pick, and the need to dump Gutierrez on the cheap because he would have no place on the team makes this move even less desirable. I bet Gutierrez will be more productive next year.
At the end of the year, we can compare the two players numbers and see.
Guttierez reminds me of Russell Okung of the Seahawks. Okung had freak injuries his first years with the team, showed flashes of brilliance, but couldn't stay on the field. He put it all together this year and was in the pro bowl.
|6. By: StandinPat on 01-29-2013 09:09:10|
Paul, why are you still using ERA(especially over that sample size) to gauge pitchers and avg for hitters? We have such better tools at our disposal, I don't get we people are still hell bent on using data that doesn't really relate to individual performance or value.
|7. By: Edman on 01-29-2013 09:32:01|
I'm not a big fan of advanced stats. I get it and their purpose, but too many tend to rely solely on statistics and forget the other intangables.
Personally, I'm more concerned about the aspect that Jack should sign Saunders, regardless of price. I don't know how much gets a deal done, but I'm sure Jack has looked into it, and either the money or length of contract, or both, don't match up with what Jack wants to spend.
Besides, IMO, his comments about a good chance significant trade this week (paraphrasing from other comments from FanFest) is more likely to involve Porcello, than Stanton. Just a guess.
Patience is a virtue, so let's be patient and let Jack work. I doubt that Noesi is a serious thought in Jack's mind. He has a lot to do to prove he belongs in MLB.
|8. By: Missthosepilots on 01-29-2013 09:33:00|
I not sure how well this works for Arizona (as to costs of tickets combined with rentals) but flying back and forth to CA for doctoral studies, I found for longer stays it was sometimes more cost effective to fly into Vegas and rent the car from there. I will be checking those routes this summer for my son's baseball tournaments in both AZ and CA. It might be worth looking at for Spring Training for those who are looking to drive all the way down.
|9. By: FatBat on 01-29-2013 10:02:39|
ERA and batting AVG are perfectly good sources for evaluating hitters and pitchers. Yes there are others. Luts let people use what they wish. I personally don't need any other indicators other than Freddy Garcia's ERA last year to tell me ill pass. Or nick swishers .148 avg in post season play to tell me he isn't there when it matters, or teixeira's avg in April. TV analysts use it, MLB use'es it, so I will still use it. Edman. I too wish they would just sign Saunders. The twins are waiting for a response to a one deal? Really. I just can't see how we can't beat that. Seems to me that signing over trading right now is the lessor of two evils. Personally I pass on porcello. I don't know the cost of the players involved but I can't get over his ERA or WHIP the last three years. Don't see the value even knowing the talented arm he has of trading a player and then paying his what 5.5 mil? Just me. I know other like him. To each his own.
|10. By: FatBat on 01-29-2013 10:07:14|
One year deal. Jeez my bad.
|11. By: Mackie on 01-29-2013 10:16:13|
I would be looking at traditional stats first, and then if advanced stats can help make an argument for or against, that's great. Re. Saunders, I'm with you Paul (#5), and with you on Bourn as well. I agree with Edman in #7 too, that Z should sign Joe Saunders. It wouldn't be a glamorous signing by any means, but I believe if they have the money to spend and want someone who can eat some innings and do a halfway decent job at it (and if they don't want to lose a draft pick) he's probably the ticket. Pitching as the #3 guy in Seattle's rotation for a couple of years? There could be worse places for him to work.
I could see the M's doing something like signing Saunders AND trading for Porcello. I'm not a big Porcello fan, but I think he would be OK. I would advocate getting him if he can be had without giving up any major prospects to the Tigers; if he could throw 180-200 league-average innings in 2013, that would be great. Adding both those SPs behind Felix and Iwakuma would seem to pretty much settle the first four spots in the rotation, and it wouldn't put pressure on anybody to use a kid who might not be ready yet in the #5 spot. And if one of the kids happened to be ready? Then wouldn't that be a nice problem to have! 8-)
I'm optimistic that the added hitting, along with a reasonably solid rotation, should make the team noticeably better this season.
|12. By: bakomariner on 01-29-2013 10:44:03|
I'm with Mackie...I want both Sauders and Porcello, as long as it doesn't cost us one of the top five prospects for Porcello. A rotation of Felix, Iwakuma, Ramriez, Saunders and Porcello would be a huge upgrade to where we stand today. With that rotation, the strong bullpen, the maturing of the youngers and the additions of Morse, Guti and Morales, the Mariners could legitimately push for the WC if everything goes right.
|13. By: Paul Martin on 01-29-2013 11:05:23|
@11 I would love to have both Saunders and Porcello too, but I don't think Detroit is going to just give him away for spare parts/extra players that are out of options and won't make our team (Carp or Triunfel) or fringe prospects (AAAA types)that will likely never make it like Peguero, Alex Liddi, or Vinny Catricala.
They would probably want our closer, Wilhelmsen which I would not do. They might accept taking back Casper Wells for him, but I think Wells can be a solid player if given steady playing time. Since he was the key piece we got back for Doug Fister, sure would like to see if he can turn into something...
In other news, Philly released JC Ramirez! He was one of the prospects we gave up for Cliff Lee. Nice to see we are not the only ones that make bad trades...
|14. By: maqman on 01-29-2013 11:52:47|
I'm of the opinion that one added arm will be enough Romero, Capuano or Saunders would be fine if the price is right. At some point in the season one of the Big Four should be ready for The Show and I'm okay with Beavan holding down a slot until they do. I'm not fond of the possibility of trading The Bartender, Capps is a high potential backender for trading purposes. I believe Furbush was the long man out of the pen last season and should be capable of doing it this season. They should put Noesi in the pen and see if he can contribute there.
|15. By: gwangung on 01-29-2013 12:27:34|
"ERA and batting AVG are perfectly good sources for evaluating hitters and pitchers. "
Eh. Only if you know what you're doing. That doesn't apply to 99.9% of folks, who don't know what they cover and what they miss.
|16. By: Edman on 01-29-2013 13:33:37|
You can drill down to the whatever common denominator you want, but in general, batting average and ERA are good enough for most discussions here.
|17. By: DKulich44 on 01-29-2013 15:02:41|
"Batting average and ERA are good enough"
Just like not teaching evolution, driving a car that gets 10 mpg, or wearing parachute pants are good enough. If we have better tools to evaluate players, why shouldn't we use them? I'll never understand the argument against statistics, then turning around and using bad ones to try and prove a point. Should we not use the best tools we have at our fingertips to assess things? It's not like OBP, FIP, etc are extremely hard concepts. They're just as easy to calculate as AVG and ERA (maybe easier). The only difference is they don't yet appear on your Topps baseball cards. Saying advanced statistics are overrated when evaluating players is one thing, saying that and then using crappy statistics with huge margins of error to evaluate players is entirely another.
|18. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 15:18:39|
focusing on ERA while ignoring all other data will lead to ideas like "Joe Saunders is good". I'd bet on Paxton being better next year or at least more worth the time invested. 7 starting pitchers for 2 spots right now, "need" is not a word I'd use for SP in Seattle. It's a luxury to have a 2 month stop gap MLB tm starter.
|19. By: Mackie on 01-29-2013 15:25:31|
Looks like the catching is getting shored up, anyway. According to MLBTradeRumors, "Mariners to sign Kelly Shoppach".
|20. By: Edman on 01-29-2013 15:27:29|
Nobody is arguing against statistics. Calculate until your fingers are numb. But for general conversation, it's fine. If you want to know more, or disprove the assumptions made, then have at it. But you don't need advanced stats to say pitcher A, in general, is better than pitcher B, particularly if there is a wide variance. If you feel so compelled, drill down and prove that pitcher B was jinxed by hurricane force winds everytime he pitched, leading to his high ERA. I'm good with that, and I'll read it and analyze it. But, to expect that everyone here has to use advanced stats before they comment is expecting a lot.
For many years, ERA and BA were commonly used. Then along came OBP, SPT, etc.
They're all good. If you don't think ERA is telling enough, and you want to dig further, that's perfectly fine as well. But we all don't need advanced tools to make a point. And, personally, I've found people who go too far in the other direction, to the point that they lose focus one the big picture.
They're all good.
|21. By: FatBat on 01-29-2013 15:30:57|
"I'll never understand the argument against statistics" what argument are you referring too? Avg and era are statistics. But hey you did make a good point for being a liberal vs. conservative but missed the point. I was only saying that its a good source for analysis. Thats iit. I like taking about engines too. Do I care that the spoiler on the back helps my gas milage? Or can I just talk about the engine? Yes the fuel helps my engine, there are a lot of things that go into a engine. Some times it's ok to talk about one thing. No one is saying to not use everything available. But avg. and era can tell you if a player hits at home / on the road / with runners in scoring position so on and so on. era can tell you the same things. I love all statistics. All. But avg. and era are never going anywhere! 20 yrs from now they will still be on the back of baseball cards. And why is that?
|22. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 15:45:12|
You can dig a ditch with a spoon if you prefer.
in 882 IP vs RHB Joe Saunders has allowed a .281/.341/.463 line or a .349 wOBA. This caused one SABR guy to call him a Loogy masquerading as a starter last October. Those numbers aren't trending away from the horrible split and you can bet teams really load up on RHB when facing him. One year, low dollar? Eh...could dump him any day, so he might be worth the low risk. Going rate for an MLB starter? Stay far away from this Bavasi mirage SP.
I'm more confident in Bonderman producing and if he doesn't it didn't cost much.
|23. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 16:06:52|
I'll change gears here, because to me it doesn't even matter who the acquisition is anyway. If it's for more than one year and not a #2 type pitcher or better it really affects more than this year.
Before adding anyone our 2014 rotation looks something like:
Beaven, Maurer, Carraway, Noesi, Walker etc. already don't fit, without a trade of someone in front. Maybe Ramirez goes to long relief to fit Walker or something like that.
We don't need multiyear SP contracts or even trades for a"young MLB starter". That idea is to cover maybe a couple months in case they don't want to bring anyone along right out of spring. Planning 7 years out and losing sight on now. Spending more now and tying up roster spots in the near future from your close to the show blue-chippers seems like a bad alternative to me.
both Zduriencik and Wedge have talked about bring willing to watch one or more of them take their lumps at the start of the season and with Wedge it was just a couple days ago when being asked about acquiring a starter. He brought up the younguns unprovoked. Said that everyone has to go through that transition at some point and it moves their timetable up to do it out of the gate.
I don't think the front office is as fixated on "needing"starting pitching as most purple seem to think.
|24. By: FatBat on 01-29-2013 16:18:01|
Wishhiker. I think we all would love to spend 20 and get grienke. But we don't have those resources. Saunders is a serviceable arm to replace Vargas. Your advocating we go with what we have. Ok. Now your gambling. What if Paxton isn't ready? Yes he is better than Saunders. You want to end up with noesi in the rotation? Than kep gambling on bonderman. If that's your bet you might be the first one to leave the table. Just saying. Saunders I agree is not ideal. But it's better than hoping in house is enough. What do we do if they don't work out and we didn't get another arm? I think the saying has a creek and no paddle. Just sayn. Better to have another arm. And Saunders is just good enough. It would take a job away from anyone. Paxton's ready, great that just means now beaven is long relief.
|25. By: Paul Martin on 01-29-2013 16:23:58|
@19 YES!!! Now get another starter (or two) and we are ready to go!!!
|26. By: Paul Martin on 01-29-2013 16:35:48|
Now if A-FRAUD gets his contract VOIDED by the Yankees, it will really be a nice offseason!!!
|27. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 16:36:55|
Beaven has upside still, Noesi may as well, Bonderman has been in Arizona since before the last couple FA starters signed. I'm pretty sure they have a better idea on where he's at than you or I. Paxton, Maurer and Hultzen are not one gamble either, it's multiple possibilities. If one came along and needed to go down and work on a thing or 2, say around June, their clock would pause again too. Bringing one along doesn't even necessitate losing the year, but it does give them valuable experience I'd rather not give to Saunders (take your pick of other) instead.
Wedge offering the "we can still go with one or more of these young guys"when asked about acquiring a starter seems telling to me. He also said that it's been a difficult market for getting what they want in a starter. It's their gamble, more do than mine. 14 days til pitchers right? No influx so far. Looking more like that's their preference every day.
|28. By: Paul Martin on 01-29-2013 16:50:40|
@27 I think you are wrong, but we will find out in 14 days!
|29. By: FatBat on 01-29-2013 17:10:19|
I would love one of our young guys to step up! I'm with you. I just want the best team we can get. It's in my opinion that by signing another arm we hedge are bets. Ok you think that would block are youth. But your forgetting one thing. Trades. You can always move a player. Just because we have 3 or 4 great pitching prospects doesn't mean they all are destined for seattle. Nor because a guy's under contract does that means we can't trade them. Miami is great at that! I do respect yours and others opinion. I think everyone on here has good opinions. We just have different ways of looking at it and that's fine.
|30. By: outfieldgrass on 01-29-2013 17:43:12|
As much as I would love to count on either Hultzen or Paxton (or even both) living up to the hype by 2014, and possibly even in 2013, one thing we have all learned when it comes to prospects is anything can happen. If we are able to acquire Porcello for a reasonable price I don't think you can pass because you hope one of the young pitchers is ready to hold onto a rotation in a season or two.
Obviously we aren't going to throw out a huge contract to a guy like Greinke but I would hope they look at all options, even if that option brings in a pitcher who is locked up past 2014.
As a baseball fan I love to dream about what the team could look like in 2014 and beyond. I hope that Walker, Romero, Hultzen, Paxton, Franklin and Zunino all will play prominent roles on those teams. However, they all won't make it. And we cannot let that hope decide how we make decisions now.
|31. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 18:18:05|
I understand there's trade possibility, but banking on Saunders having value seems dangerous. He doesn't seem to have much know when it's only the money and not money + talent.
Porcello is one I'm not as opposed to. I think his value would increase significantly with the mariners or any team that has any defense to speak of. Their infield defense especially is horrific, and Porcello is a pitch to contact guy. He is also a younger guy with some projectable upside and improving trends. I think he would continue to be tradeable or worth keeping in place of maybe Ramirez or someone leaving in trade to bring in something else of need.
I'm cool with the idea of protection and depth, I just don't see it as a need in the rotation right now. To me it's a luxury and brings into question whether it's worth the cost more so than was going after Upton or Morse. The MOTO seemed like a much bigger need to me.
|32. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 18:35:47|
Wanting the best team you can get is more of a Yankees approach. Waiting on young talent to put things together is a fact of life with the Mariners under Zduriencik. Why draft them if you aren't going to use them?
I'm not expecting any of the young pitchers to take the league by storm, that would be expecting too much. Building a core comes from patience and bringing them along. It's likely that Maurer, Paxton and Hultzen all make it up this year. That's not a position this team or it's fans is used to. The combined chances of one of them looking ready for their first taste at the end of spring is not the same as it has ever been for the mariners regarding pitching prospects on the verge. I understand thinking you can't count on them because we're used to their being one at most. It's not just one this time, there are 3 and I'm not counting Walker or Carraway who are somewhat conceivable as well.
I'm fine with 2 spots going to Beaven/Bonderman/Noesi in the likely worst case scenario because I think the odds of one of the other 3 being ready are great enough collectively and it's likely only 2 months and change of that combination. I don't want to see Noesi up if possible, but he could change my mind this spring too.
|33. By: dewey on 01-29-2013 19:16:42|
#32 you draft players toi use on the field and to use in trades that is why you draft guys and some guys are drafted just prospects and on occasion they become M.L. players also. If anyone is excpecting Bonderman to compete for a opening day spot cmon man! He has been out 2 years and wasnt any good that year he has to rebuild himself and 1 spring training isnt gonna do it Tacoma and see what happens. Unless JZ gets us help in rotation it will be another 70-75 win season we have alot of starters pitching in roles higher then there abilitys allow
|34. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 20:00:57|
Nice random number assessment and hyperbole. I'm not saying Bonderman will be anything but I'm sure you'd have said the same about Vogelsong going into 2011. Act like it doesn't happen if you prefer. Again, he went down to Arizona in early January.
One player or roster spot doesn't decide a teams wins, cmon man.
There are 10 pitchers for 5 spots now. Figure the other 5 are the Tacoma rotation. None of them belong in AA in order to squeeze in a Saunders. Noesi may need to work on things, but it would be counterproductive to send him to AA. Walker or Carraway to AA? What do even they have to learn there?
I think I'm more confident on Beaven than you are, but that's fine. I really see it as 6 fighting for 1 spot already.
|35. By: jordan on 01-29-2013 20:04:17|
I think GMZ really wants Paxton or Hultzen to force their way onto this team as the LHP. I think he brings in a LHP via trade (Capuano) if he does not think one of our two LHP's are not ready.
Ramirez (people forget how well he pitched, and how young!)
|36. By: Mackie on 01-29-2013 20:35:37|
@34, you bring up some very good points, and that is assuming that all 10 of those pitchers vying for those 5 spots are still here at the beginning of the season and that none leave in trades.
I can see only two of the ten being "safe" from getting traded, those being Felix and Iwakuma. I think the M's might listen to offers on any of the other eight if the right players were offered in trade. If Paxton or one or more of the other eight leaves in a deal, then I'm more than fine with Z acquiring Saunders and/or Porcello or Capuano.
It seems logical to me that if the M's do acquire someone like Porcello or Capuano in a trade during the next couple of weeks, that we would see one of those other eight SPs 1) gone in the trade, or 2) gone in a different trade for some other player not even on our radar.
I guess that if those ten rotation spots between Seattle and Tacoma are basically decided, and someone from AA needs to be promoted, it would give the M's more ammo for trades sometime around July 31...
I still think the Mariners are looking to add someone to the rotation. But as you suggest, the more days that go by without something being done, the more your scenario looks likely.
|37. By: on 01-29-2013 20:46:19|
Oops, I forgot about Vasquez. Maybe him or Noesi is the long man in Tacoma. The org filler can be dumped or whatever, but that's not what we're talking about filling the AAA rotation with anyway. What to do with all this pitching? Why do people think we need more? There's too much above AA already to fill 10 rotation spots. Anthony Fernandez might normally be fighting for a spot in AAA this year but there's no room.
Using resources to acquire pitching seems like an absolute waste to me. I'd much rather they have the money available at the deadline to fill a "need" if they become the buyers I think they will. That may only be a 2 month buy as well, but could actually fill a longer term need. Seems more likely than a Saunders acquisition looking good in hindsight going in to April.
|38. By: dewey on 01-29-2013 21:03:01|
#34 There is a huge diffrence Volgesong was healthy and pitching Bonderman has not been in 2 1/2 years that is a HUGE diffrence.It takes time to get command and strenghth back hopefully he does but i wouldnt count on anything until late june if we get lucky sorry for being honest and not a homer.
|39. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 21:12:39|
I'm not opposed to Capuano or Porcello. A couple trades worked together could make sense. The only long term needs the team really has (beyond acclimation of the younguns) is at leadoff and MOTO. Bullpen is more stacked than the rotation. Catcher? 1b may be a need but there are 3 on the team now that could fill it for a few years. 2b, 3b, SS all look like they're locked up from within. The outfield is pretty much it. A CF leadoff guy (or Landry panning out) and a MOTO corner guy. That's the market I'd be looking at.
Billy Hamilton and Mike Stanton? yeah, right...but otherwise why bother? Romero, Catricala and Franklin could all end up playing in corners in the next year or so and Landry may continue flying up. Then what do we "need"? Incremental improvements and tweaking? Injury depth.
The pipeline is starting to flood the roster already and it may slow a bit, but the roster is pretty full of young MLB talent already. The first free agent year on the roster among the young guys is Smoak and Saunders in 2017. That's a long way out.
I just think the bar should be higher for acquisitions right now, we shouldn't be desperate enough in the short term that the standards are lowered. This is a good roster right now. Long term, we shouldn't be needing pitching at all from outside for quite awhile. We still have needs in the field.
|40. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 21:15:47|
#38, yeah there's a difference. Vogelsong had twice as many years off. He didn't pitch in 07, 08, 09 or 10. Otherwise he was even worse than Bonderman before, so there's that too.
|41. By: dewey on 01-29-2013 22:39:24|
He was pitching in Japan and the minors do your homework son!
|42. By: Wishhiker on 01-29-2013 23:15:11|
I did catch the MiL innings in 2010 after posting that but didn't recall him being in Japan. Its not like they list the stats in Japan on any site I'd be reasonably expected to check. I suppose I should have searched "vogelsong japan". On second thought, that seems like a leap to me.
Anyway, as I said before, I see Bonderman as one of 6 pitchers already vying for the #5 spot. Don't have to rely on him, its just a possibility.
|43. By: DRWheelock on 01-30-2013 07:45:28|
#26, NO I don't want the Yankees to find a way out of that pathetic contract. This teaches them a lesson by being stuck with it! Regarding Arod? Without the PEDS he will continue to suffer injuries and DL stints until he retires. Did I forget to mention the Boo's from Yankee fans?
The Yanks and Arod are a good fit for each other over the next 8 years! Let it be a Yankee/Arod drama for the remaining of his contract! The Yankees get out of this contract they will just go out and splurge on the next guy. Guarantee you that they would have picked up Hamilton if they didn't have to pay Arod.
|44. By: Edman on 01-30-2013 07:51:54|
I have no problem with Beavan as the #5 starter in the rotation. He was a first round selection, not specifically because of his fastball sitting at 97 MPH. There have to be other intangables involved. I'd rather see him than Porcello. He's already paid for, and the more experience he gets, the greater trade value he has, if it reaches that point.
He has been working on his pitches this off-season, so let's see if he can elevate his game. I'm not for bringing in hired help, unless it's really needed. Porcello and Beavan have similar statistics. In fact, Beavan has a lower whip, by about 0.25.
As far as I'm concerned, they are very similar pitchers, with Beavan not costing anything in trade.
|45. By: Edman on 01-30-2013 07:53:39|
Agreed, DRWheelock. They gave foolishly long and expensive contracts, they should have to pay the price for their mistakes.
|46. By: DRWheelock on 01-30-2013 07:58:55|
What is interesting about all of these Farm rankings, and now #1 MLB.com ranking is the fact that the top prospects from the last 2 years are counted on this years list. They have already been promoted...hopefully they start playing up to their potential (which I think there is a good chance of that happening with adding Morales and Morse in amoungst them).
Guys that weren't counted in the farm Rankings this year:
And on top of that Zunino made a comment at FanFest that the quality of players coming up in A and AA are amazingly talented and will be pushing their way up fast!
This is why I wouldn't have a problem giving up some top talent to land Stanton. Hopefully Z can find a way to pull that off!
|47. By: DRWheelock on 01-30-2013 08:07:08|
The Yankees over the past 15 years have been overpaying and driving prices up that have been killing the small market teams. Thus the Revenue Sharing and Luxury Tax policies needed to come into the game.
After seeing all of these teams with more balanced teams, and the Yankees only winning 1 WS over the past decade, they are realizing times have changed and its about developing their Farm System which is one of the worse in the league (along with the Angels).
Now after saying all of that, I'm worried about these TV contracts like what the Dodgers are doing now, which will give the Dodgers an "additional" $266M annually to spend. That is ON TOP of all of the rest of their income streams. What the Dodgers, Angels, and Rangers have done counting on these TV deals makes the playing ground VERY uneven once again, and MLB is going to have to figure out how to deal with this now.
|48. By: Paul Martin on 01-30-2013 08:11:29|
@43 All very good points, I agree with you!!
|49. By: Paul Martin on 01-30-2013 08:16:09|
Mlbtraderumors reporting a mystery team offers Joe Saunders 2 years 15 million. Could it be Seattle?!!!
|50. By: DRWheelock on 01-30-2013 09:11:37|
My money is on Seattle and Joe Saunders
|51. By: Mackie on 01-30-2013 09:12:13|
@49, Hmmmm...! 8-) Also according to that site, the Twins, O's and M's are three teams that have been linked to Saunders this winter. The blurb says the Orioles are not the mystery team, and it also says the Twins have offered one year. So if those things are true, it seems to follow that the mystery team is either the Mariners or someone else altogether.
If it is Seattle, it will be interesting to see if this would trigger any other deals. Do you think it might?
|52. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-30-2013 09:35:38|
I've been sitting here for a few days pondering the topic about signing Michael Bourn. There's a crowd of people out there who really want us to sign him. The more I thought about his possible acquisition the more I think that would spell the possible end of Justin Smoak with the Mariners. Feel free to hit me back with other thoughts.
If we signed Michael Bourn, the dude is gonna be a starter, most likely in CF, but definitely a starter none the less in our OF. We have a bunch of guys already that project to be starters in our OF with Saunders, Morse, and hopefully a healthy Franklin Gutierrez. That doesn't even take into consideration the part time guys we have in Raul Ibanez, Casper Wells, Eric Thames, Mike Carp, and Jason Bay. I can see Bay, Thames, and Carp all going bye bye real easily, but Wells and Ibanez? Tough one. Especially when you just spent $2.75 million on Ibanez for this season.
If you wanted to help clear up that logjam, you could easily take the worst fielder out of the bunch, Michael Morse, and make him your permanent DH. Then your OF looks somewhat like Guti, Saunders, Bourn, Ibanez, and Wells. Better, but still crowded. But where does that leave Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak?
Morales has a pretty good track record from past seasons and is coming off of a partly injured season where he came on strong in the 2nd half. While Smoak had pretty much a poor season up until the last month that somewhat salvaged his numbers for the year. If there's no DH spot to regularly put Smoak or Morales, one of these guys is out the door with a Bourn signing, or sitting on the bench regularly.
Personally I don't like the idea of signing Bourn, basically because you'd not only lose your 1st Rd pick, but the slot money that goes with that. You could possibly be losing out on a pick in another round somewhere between 2-10. But for argument's sake let's say we did sign Bourn. You'd then have trade pieces in Casper Wells, Franklin Gutierrez and Justin Smoak. Porcello? Capauno anyone?
Let me know if I'm missing anything. Again, I'm not in favor of signing Bourn, but the way Jack got really mum about the question of acquiring him after talking his mouth of constantly lead me to believe that we're at least kicking the tires on him. Thoughts?
|53. By: Paul Martin on 01-30-2013 10:11:49|
@52 I am nervous that they might Bourn too, but in the end I don't think they will.
I think Guttierrez (if healthy) or Casper Wells could easily outplay Bourn next year. They are already on the roster and cost a lot less. We are not winning anything next year anyway, and you might as well see what these two players can do before giving up on them.
Under your scenario, I think Smoak would end up spending half the year in AAA Tacoma. At the deadline Seattle will be sellers, and may look to trade one of the guys (Morales?) they have on one year deals (Ibanez, Morales, and Morse). I think Morse is the guy most likely to resign with the team if he plays well.
I see guys like Triunfel and Carp getting cut or traded and Thames spending the year in AAA if no deal is out there. It looks like Bay is a real longshot to make the roster out of spring training too.
I will rest much easier once Bourn signs somewhere else...
@51 I think once we pick up that innings eater starter, Jack will only have minor moves left (like clearing out Carp, Triunfel, Bay, Thames) to get down to he final 25 man roster.
If we can resign Felix and play around .500 ball while the young guys on all levels (major league, AAA, AA, and so on) develop the season will be a success.
I think at some point (6 months to a year) Miami will make Stanton available for a trade. When they do watch out! We have the exact kind of cheap prospects they will want, and Jack has shown (with the failed Upton trade) that he will do what it takes to outbid anyone and get the deal done.
Until then we have to be patient...
|54. By: Mackie on 01-30-2013 11:24:14|
@52, I'm also nervous about the signing Bourn, and also for some of the reasons #53 states. From what we hear and read, it seems to me that yes, the Mariners are at least kicking the tires on Bourn. Reports are that he has visited with the Mets, and I'm hoping it's them who take the plunge, not Seattle. Even if Gutierrez is injured again, Saunders can man CF for a bit. It isn't like the Mariners have a glut of good outfielders, but there are plenty of guys in the mix right now, and possibly enough to make a serviceable outfield for 2013 without weighing things down with a long, expensive contract like Bourn will command. And while the Mariners may have no hot OF prospects in the minors at the moment, that could always change... or they could eventually make a play for someone like Stanton.
The thing I'm impatient about now is getting the rotation solidified a bit. Once they do that, maybe it wouldn't be a problem if they didn't do much for a while in order to get through spring training and see who's going to make the 25-man... and then too, seeing how that works for a while.
Again @53, I do think there could be quite a bit of action at the trading deadline. And yes, Seattle could well have the kind of package the Marlins would like. So yes, in 6 months to a year, watch out indeed! I think what we are seeing now is obviously still a work in progress, and like Tom Petty says, "The waiting is the hardest part." But I think the train is headed in the right direction. And as it moves along, I believe we should start seeing more of the "missing pieces" falling into place at a quicker pace.
|55. By: Wishhiker on 01-30-2013 11:41:22|
Porcellos WHIP includes many hits given up to a horrible defense behind him. He's a pitch to contact guy with no elite fielders and few even decent ones behind him in Detroit. I'd say that pushes his past performances above Beaven. Adjusting for such things is exactly what FIP is for. Porcello has a career 4.26 FIP, 3.91 last year. Beaven s career FIP is 4.70, 4.85 last year. the defenses playing behind them are a huge difference. That's not to say how they'll be in the future because Beaven hasn't had a full MLB season yet and may have more upside. Porcello is the worst kind of pitcher for Detroit to get good results from though.
Its been said that the Dodgers may not move Capuano until later in spring training. That could allow the M's an option to stick with what they have for now and see how things unfold. If Capuano is to be available in another 3 Weeks they would have a better idea of need then. The same might even be true of Porcello.
|56. By: maqman on 01-30-2013 11:45:44|
In a couple of years the Angels are going to start facing some of the problems the Yankees are stuck with now. All in all I think we have a better future than either of them down the road.
Bourn would be a bad idea.
I could live with them not signing another arm, although I expect they will. Porcello would be my choice but they could afford two years of Saunders.
|Copyright 2013 Prospect Insider, Inc. | Created by AQ Central|
Prospect Insider is optimized for Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome