| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 02-03-2013 |
While there are just nine days until pitchers and catchers officially report to spring training for the Seattle Mariners, there are also only 123 days until the draft. Yes, that is how we think around here. Admit it, some of you do, too.There are a few things that need to be cleared up, however.
The report dates for those players on final rosters for the World Baseball Classic is irrelevant. They'll join the club once their countries are eliminated, or once the champion is determined
The M's on the provisional rosters will find out if they are on the final version by February 20. The following players in the M's organization are candidates:
Michael Saunders, OF -- Canada
Felix Hernandez, RHP -- Venezuela
Alex Liddi, 3B -- Italy
Thyago Vieira, RHP -- Brazil
Oliver Perez, LHP -- Mexico
Luiz Gohara, LHP -- Brazil
Brian Sweeney, RHP -- Italy
Kalian Sams, OF -- Netherlands
Pedro Okuda, IF -- Brazil
Expect Sweeney, Liddi, Saunders, Perez and Hernandez to be on the final rosters and not in big league camp in Peoria.
Other Important Dates for 2013
February 15: M's full squad reports
February 22: M's vs. Padres Charity Game
March 2-10: World Baseball Classic First Round
March 8-16: World Baseball Classic Second Round
March 17-19: World Baseball Classic Championship Round
March 11: Deadline to renew club-controlled contracts
March 13: Deadline for 30-day termination pay
This date means any player not on a guaranteed contract can be placed on unconditional waivers and the team is only responsible for 30 days of pay, rather than 45 days or the full season. A player with a conditional contract, such as a player that just agreed to terms on a one-year deal such as Shawn Kelley, for example, can be released with his salary being paid out at the 30-day (or 45, see below) pro-rated sum.
March 27: Deadline for 45-day termination pay
March 31: Deadline for teams to set 25-man roster
Opening Day: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
April 1: Opening Day for rest of MLB, including Mariners at Athletics
June 6-8: Draft
July 12: Deadline for clubs to sign draft picks
July 14: All-Star Future Game
July 16: All-Star Game at Citi Field, home of the New York Mets
July 31: Non-waiver trade deadline
September 1: Roster expansion
October 23: Game 1 of the 2013 World Series
December 9-12: Winter Meetings at Lake Buena Vista, Fla.
Useful linkage
Geoff Baker's payroll summary, which is about as spot-on as humanly posible without being privy to the club's books.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden's take on fits for Michael Bourn, via Twitter
Bowden also wrote a piece this past week on the Yankees' eyeing the next two free agent classes for starting pitchers, which could include Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Justin Verlander, among others.
I understand the idea, but I seriously doubt any of those four in particular actually get to free agency, potentially forcing the Yankees' hand within the next 12 months.
The great Larry Stone's analysis on the Mariners' "black holes" in their lineup in 2012 is simple but a great point.
Super Bowl Special
We don't talk about other sports very often here, for obvious reasons, but but the Super Bowl is Sunday, in case you happened to have just pried yourself off the coma slab, and it's quite the intriguing match up.
Not just because the coaches are brothers, Colin Kaepernick is a rookie quarterback and it's Ray Lewis' final game. It's interesting because neither team was supposed to get here, kind of like the World Series in October.
Not that it's a complete shock that San Francisco and Baltimore ended up playing for all the marbles, but at different points during the season it appeared as if both the Ravens and 49ers were far from Super Bowl contenders.
The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, if not the Houston Texans, too, were viewed as the top three teams in the AFC, ahead of Baltimore.
In the NFC, the Niners switched starting quarterbacks -- to a rookie, no less -- and were blown out in week 16 by the Seahawks. Their best defensive lineman, Justin Smith, was hurt, which allowed opponents to double-team Alden Smith, and all of a sudden San Francisco appeared somewhat ordinary.
The point I'm making is that championships aren't won on paper, they aren't won during the regular season and the "hot team down the stretch" idea is just a bad theory.
The football Giants proved that twice in the past six years in the NFL and the baseball Giants have done it twice in the past three years in baseball.
Get into the postseason and see what happens. That's a theory worth noting. Such a thought gives hope to any MLB team that can get to the 87-88 win range or better, thanks to the addition of the second Wildcard.
Twenty years ago the current Seattle Mariners would be light years from playoff contention; they'd need 95-win capabilities, and even that might not be enough with the Rangers and Angels capable of topping that and the A's having won 94 games a year ago.
In 2013, however, the Seattle Mariners will be darned near as talented 1-25 as those A's -- they come up short in the starting pitching department, at least as of now -- and while it's a long shot that the M's might get to 90 or more win in 2013, they could get to 85 or so and set themselves up for significant gains in 2014.
Don't buy the comparison between the 2012 A's and the 2013 Mariners? Go check out the rosters (young, few veterans, no stars on offense, solid pitching) and then see the numbers below. Keep in mind the ballpark differential in Seattle that will be apparent to an unknown level in 2013:
Oakland Athletics 2011 | 2012
AVG -- .244 | .238
OBP -- .311 | .310
SLG -- .369 | .404
RISP -- .266/.340/.399 | .265/.359/.437
RISP2 -- .258/.347/.391 | .245/.365/.408
SP ERA -- 3.70 | 3.80
RP ERA -- 3.74 | 2.94
Wins -- 74 | 94
Seattle Mariners 2012
AVG -- .234
OBP -- .296
SLG -- .369
RISP -- .239/.324/.372
RISP2 -- .206/.319/.329
SP ERA -- 3.93
RP ERA -- 3.39
Wins -- 75
The area where the A's improved the most were production with runners in scoring position and their bullpen shaved three-quarters of a run off their ERA. They did hit more home runs, too, accounting for the 35-point improvement in slugging percentage, but that isn't nearly significant enough to account for the 20-win differential.
In a word, they got a little lucky, as did the Giants in their two treks to the top of the mountain.
spring-training-countdown:-9-days
Comments
The following 2 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: maqman on 02-03-2013 10:48:11 Good analysis of the M's chances this season Jason. They have cut some dead wood and filled some holes, especially in the MOTO and I like their chances to win 82-88 games. With some breaks going their way and some going the other way for the three favorites in the AL West and they could get a wild card, but I doubt it this year but next year could well be even brighter. |
| 2. By: jbltzfk on 02-03-2013 13:38:00 Jason - thanks for the analysis. I really just wanted to let you know that, despite being super bowl Sunday, I read all the M's news I can find. I'm picking 85 wins this year, +/- 5 or so, depending on our 5th starter. |
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