| By Brendan Gawlowski |  | By 03-17-2013 |
TV game today!
The buzz around camp is that Jon Garland has impressed the Mariner brass enough that he's now a favorite to make the Opening Day rotation. It’s a bit of a surprise: coming into camp, Garland hadn’t pitched since 2011, and with so much competition for two rotation jobs, his future with the club was murky. Kudos to him for having a strong spring and getting his career back on track.
As a corollary, if Garland does win a rotation job, the final spot in the starting five will likely go to either Erasmo Ramirez or today’s starter, Blake Beavan (with Jeremy Bonderman and Brandon Maurer lurking as dark horses). Maybe it’s because I have blinders on when it comes to Ramirez (I like him quite a bit) but I don’t think this should be a tough choice.
Beavan is a known quantity and a decent illustration of a swingman/replacement level starter. In forty-one career outings, Beavan has posted a K/9 below 4 with a FIP and xFIP in the 4.70’s. Basically, he throws the ball, batters hit it, and when things go well, it winds up in somebody’s glove. It isn't a dominating or intimidating approach, and even though he’s young, Beavan doesn’t project to get much better.
On the other hand, Ramirez pitched quite well in limited action last season. Projected as a control specialist throughout his career, Ramirez demonstrated that he’d acquired some unexpected life on his fastball last spring, and he earned a place on the team’s opening day roster. He spent most of last year shuttling between Seattle, Tacoma, and the DL, but when he pitched, he performed well. In fifty-nine innings, he posted a 3.36/3.55/3.75 pitcher slash line (ERA/FIP/xFIP), with a 7.32 k/9 and a better ground ball rate than Beavan. Frankly, I’d assumed for most of the winter and spring that his performance last year had earned him a spot in the rotation, and I’m a little surprised that Beavan is still in the running to take it from him.
We’ll see how it plays out. I expect this to be one of the big stories surrounding the clubs over the next two weeks, and while I’m not rooting for Beavan to fail by any stretch, I do think that the M’s are both better off and more entertaining with Ramirez in the rotation.
This afternoon’s game starts at 1:05 and will be televised by Root Sports. The radio crew will also be doing the game on 710 ESPN.
Mariners Lineup
Gutierrez 8
Seager 5
Morales DH
Ibanez 7
Smoak 3
Bay 9
Shoppach 2
Ackley 4
Andino 9
Beavan 1
Pitching Matchup
Beavan goes against Texas’s Michael Kirkman. Carter Capps, Kameron Loe, Stephen Pryor, and Danny Farquhar will pitch in relief, while Felix Hernandez is set to throw in a minor league game.
Hernandez will be terrorizing single A kids instead of the Texas Rangers on account of a longstanding policy where the club doesn’t allow Felix to face a division rival just weeks before the season. The intuition is that it doesn’t make sense to let the Rangers have a look at Felix’s stuff just prior to when they’ll face him for real. I’m not sure how much I buy that line of thought, but I do find it amusing that the organization wants to keep Felix a “mystery” but has no qualms about feeding Beavan to the same pack of wolves.
spring-training-preview-game-22
Comments
The following 11 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: leos_world on 03-17-2013 14:59:47 Has Capps taken off some velocity in order to gain control, or is he just not at 100 percent yet? Looking forward to his 100mph fastball closing games. Any chances M's deal Wilhelsen to the needing Tigers for one of their OF prospects and put Capps at closer? |
| 2. By: diderot on 03-17-2013 16:18:35 I'm in total agreement on Erasmo. He's either the second or third best starter on the roster right now, and anything that would keep him out of the rotation is an absolute joke. |
| 3. By: Shawnuel on 03-17-2013 16:27:19 Yup.......sort of worried that Wedge will let his "veteran-love" get the better of him and keep both Bonderman and Garland, letting Erasmo go back to Tacoma and Beavan handle long relief/swinging. Sincerely hope I am wrong. That fear transfers to Ibanez/Bay Vs. Wells also. |
| 4. By: Edman on 03-17-2013 16:56:04 It's about competition. If you wish to be paranoid, that's up to you. Would nearly any team pick a veteran player who's achieving results over an unknown rookie doing the same? Probably yes, because you can't replace experience. Seattle is gearing up to compete. They've weeded out a lot of young players during their rebuild stage. I like Bonderman, Garland, Ramirez and Beavan, in that order, as long as they continue to show enough of what it takes to compete in the Major Leagues. People should be happy that the Mariners have tough decisions to make, and not ones that, do to lack of talent, are too apparent. Wedge is no different from nearly every major league manager. This attempt to paint him as somehow the rebel in the group is kinda odd. There is bound to be tough decisions that may mean someone who played well enough to earn a spot on the 25 roster, may not. If Beavan and Ramirez end up on Tacoma, because they have options, is that really so bad? If Bonderman and/or Garland don't do well, they'll be back. It's the business of baseball, just like not starting a rookie's service time too soon. It's also about keeping as many assets as possible. I would feel bad for Ramirez in particular, but it's how the business of baseball works. |
| 5. By: Edman on 03-17-2013 16:59:00 Not to mention, Maurer is probably a better candidate than either Ramirez or Beavan, in regard to talent. Yet, he might end up in Tacoma to start the season. It's great to have decisions that tough, but can be unfair to all the players. You can never have too much pitching. |
| 6. By: Bookbook on 03-17-2013 17:16:27 Competition isn't a bad thing, but spring training results shouldn't be accorded much role. As for readiness to pitch well in April, 2013, it's: Ramirez Big gap No one Gap Garland Maurer Beaven Gap Bonderman By the end of 2013, Maurer may be as good, or better than Ramirez. I suspect he isn't yet. |
| 7. By: Paul Martin on 03-17-2013 20:12:05 Look for Garland to secure a spot in the rotation soon. He has a clause in his contract that can make him a free agent if the team doesn't give him the spot. Not sure why the love for Bonderman? I think he needs to work his way back by starting in AAA. Ramirez and Beaven are both great #5 starter options. I would be happy with whoever wins the job. While Maurer excites me much more than any of the above mentioned, he is best served getting more experience in AAA, with a call up later in the summer. No sense in getting his service time started too early... It sure is nice having options going into the season. |
| 8. By: Shawnuel on 03-17-2013 22:01:56 #4 Seriously...Paranoid? Yeah, ok. Sheesh! As usual, thanks for the passive-aggressive belittling, rather than just discussing the point being made. Personally, I am much more bullish on Ramirez than Garland or Bonderman. Ramirez pitched MLB last season and was good in limited innings. Bonderman and Garland haven't pitched in the MLB for 2 seasons each, so, in terms of recent experience, Ramirez has the edge. He also has looked better than either of them. Regarding Maurer, I think Ramirez and he have about the same upside but if he keeps improving, I could see Maurer eventually having the better talent. But it would probably be wise not to jump him from AA to MLB without a little time in Tacoma. Wait....did he end 2012 there? Can't remember now. |
| 9. By: rightwingrick on 03-17-2013 23:05:36 I've never understood the "Beavan can't be projected to get much better" thing. He's big (6'7"), throws in the low 90's, was a #1 draft choice who has thrown in the 95-96 MPH range earlier in his career, has a great work ethic, is improving his curveball pretty dramatically, and is only 24. And he throws strikes. If his curve and his changed delivery even makes those strikes SLIGHTLY more unhittable, then at 29-34 yeears of age (when pitchers are generally at their peak performance), Beavan might be really, really good! |
| 10. By: maqman on 03-18-2013 12:47:42 I believe Beavan is better than he is given credit for. His refined over the top delivery is sprouting ground balls and strikeouts. He looked good against what was supposed to be the Texicans. IMO MoMo Ramirez is a lock to make the rotation, he's earned it. I'd rather they keep Beavan up rather than Garland, I think he's better and the years of team control make him more valuable. The A's have shown young pitchers can get you to the promised land, we should follow their example. The Ms should DFA Garland and Bonderman before their opt-outs click in and see if they can trade them to somebody who wants starters, if it's possible to do that. |
| 11. By: Edman on 03-19-2013 01:44:24 Just playing a hunch, but I think they'll let Garland out of his contract. Not because he hasn't pitched well, but because there is only so much roster room. Beavan and Bonderman make the rotation, with Ramirez is the long man in the pen. If one of them doesn't do well, Ramirez takes their spot in the rotation. Maurer heads to Tacoma for more seasoning. Why Bonderman over Garland? Because, according to everything I've read, he's pain-free, and his breaking pitches are sharp and tight. Nothing scientific, just a gut feeling. It could go a number of different ways. It's always good to have to make tough decisions. |
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