| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-02-2010 |
Jack Zduriencik has made it clear he wants another starting pitcher, among a few bats to sprinkle into the lineup. The free agent market isn't necessarily full of options, and most clubs just aren't trading pitching right now unless it's a salary dump.
But there are options, so lets take a look at them, discuss them and what it would take to acquire each, and what it would mean to the rest of the roster and the finances remaining.
Ben Sheets
Sheets, IMO, is the best bet of the group of injury-prone starters on the market this season (Harden, Penny, Bedard) and took all of last year off after non-TJ surgery on his elbow.
He's not likely to get three-year offers from anyone and he might be worth two guaranteed, as long as the team isn't guaranteeing a large salary. Make him earn it and two years isn't too many.
He's a No. 2 caliber starter when healthy. I have heard rumblings that Sheets doesn't want to pitch in Seattle, however, mostly due to the early and late-season weather, though he experienced similar climates in Milwaukee.
Texas is still the favorite at this point, but they don't have a lot of money to spend.
Dan Haren, Francisco Liriano, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco
Seattle has inquired about everybody, wisely. Check in and see, you never know. But lets break down this group one by one.
Haren isn't going anywhere this winter. He was one of the top few starters in the NL last year, isn't making tons of cash and Arizona is planning on contending in 2010 with the return of Brandon Webb and the addition of Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy.
If the D-backs fade and are out of the race in July, I could see Haren's name popping up in trade discussions, and perhaps something gets done then. But it makes zero sense for them to deal him now when they are trying to build a winning roster.
Johnson is going to be traded if he doesn't sign an extension in Florida, but there's no rush for the player to sign, or for the Marlins to deal him away. Blow away Florida with an offer and you can probably get him, but the package better begin with high-upside starting pitching, or you can forget it. (You'll hear that phrase again in a minute)
Liriano made a few small strides last season but this is year three off the TJ surgery and it's usually the point when UCL replacement patients show their fullest recovery levels.
In other words, if the Twins traded Liriano now, it's selling low, so they'd need to treat Liriano as if he's already recovered and in top form or they won't get enough value to warrant trading him when he's still very inexpensive and three full years from free agency.
On top of that, Minnesota is trying to re-up with Joe Mauer and show players such as J.J. Hardy and Scott Baker that Minneapolis is a good place to play baseball and win. If they dealt Liriano for a package that doesn't make them better in 2010, as well as beyond, what's the point?
Without dealing Dustin Ackley as a player to be named later and including Carlos Triunfel, Michael Saunders and more, plus a third team, it's got little-to-no shot of happening this winter.
Why the third team? Any package better begin with high-upside starting pitching, or you can forget it. (see?)
Nolasco is a bit of a different story. Yes, he's still cheap enough for Florida to hang onto, they don't need to trade the right-hander to make payroll. But he's also not necessarily a sell-low guy this winter, despite a high ERA, and if Florida plans on keeping Johnson for the long term, Nolasco may eventually be traded anyway.
I still think a good starting pitching prospect would have to be a part of a trade for Nolasco, which is why I don't see how Seattle gets in the mix for him without a third team, but Nolasco is not as far-fetched as the aforementioned trio. And he's a No. 3 caliber arm, too, and that's what's missing in the M's rotation.
Erik Bedard
Do you really want to go down this road again, even if he signed for very little guaranteed money? I'm interested to read the responses on Bedard.
Lets say he'd take $4-5 million guaranteed and would get an extra $100k for every 10 innings over 100, $500k for every 10 innings pitched over 150. Talk amongst yourselves.
Joel Pineiro
Pineiro still wants three and $30 million or so, and Seattle isn't going that route. But what if the Mets and Dodgers went in another direction and Pineiro's market crashed to 1 year plus a vesting option? How much is he worth to the Mariners at that point?
I'd still stay way until he got super cheap, but it could become something to think about if the market disappears.
Derek Lowe
Something tells me Atlanta would still deal Lowe and his contract even after sending Javier Vazquez to the Yankees last month. But that's a lot of money to take on for an aging pitcher who's never been an ace and is simply an innings eater at this stage.
And the Braves aren't going to eat much salary, if any at all.
Joe Blanton
Blanton is probably a No. 4 in the AL, but he's a flyball guy who'd benefit from Safeco. He's due $7-8 million via arbitration and may be cheaply acquired as Philly tries to find payroll space to continue to make improvements.
Aaron Harang
Here's where I don't see why the Mariners haven't gotten involved, if indeed they have not.
There were reports by Yahoo! Sports that the Cincinnati Reds were willing to eat significant portions of Harang's remaining salary, and weren't quite asking for the moon from the Dodgers during those trade discussions.
Harang is a mid-rotation guy at this stage, but he's better than Blanton and his $14.5 million guaranteed ($12.5m salary, $2.5 mil buyout for 2011) isn't ridiculous. If the Reds ate even $5-6 million of it, Harang might very well be a good value. Heck, there's a chance he's worth the $12.5 million in 2010 if he stays healthy.
His control is still good, his fastball command was spotty at times in 2009, but he, too, would greatly benefit from Safeco's pitcher-friendly confines. He served up 24 long balls last season pitching in Cincy, Wrigley, Busch and Minute Maid for 19 of his 26 starts.
While he'd be changing leagues, he'd also likely start 55-60 percent of his games in a pitcher's ballpark -- Seattle, Oakland, Detroit, etc -- while seeing far less of the band boxes in the NL Central, who has just one park that typically grades out as favoring the pitcher -- PNC in Pittsburgh.
starting-pitching
Comments
The following 87 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 01-02-2010 12:45:11 What about Washburn as a last resort. |
| 2. By: petermag on 01-02-2010 13:08:12 Harang is a great name to bring up. If the reds eat part of his salary, thats a no brainer for me. His injury last year was an apendectomy. Thats not something that will hinder him in the future. i say target Sheets first, but only at the right price. No sense in overpaying for him. Harang is the backup plan. I'd be happy with either if the salary numbers worked out. |
| 3. By: The Great Pumpkin on 01-02-2010 13:45:47 Do any of the old-timers like Smoltz or Pedro have enough left to be valuable for 2010? |
| 4. By: Adam T on 01-02-2010 13:55:21 RE: Bedard - I don't see how a team offers 3-4 guaranteed for a guy who likely won't be ready until sometime in July and who is coming off of SHOULDER surgery. 1-2 with a bunch of incentives plus an option for 2011? I'd do it in a heartbeat. Sheets is my guy. But Harang wouldn't be bad. He'd be cheap in terms of a package if we ate most of his salary. |
| 5. By: ripperlv on 01-02-2010 14:23:31 I was trying to come up with some more possibilites. Washburn, Padilla, Wang come to mind. Washburn is back of the rotation. Padilla is a #4 or 5 (despite Dodger stint) looking for #2-3 money. Wang is coming off surgery sans Bedard. I think you covered everything. But who knows what JZ will find under the rock. |
| 6. By: mymrbig on 01-02-2010 15:00:58 I don't see Smoltz really wanting to come here. RJ's upside is a #3 at best now, but he'd be cheap (if he doesn't retire) and I'd rather bring him back then Blanton, Washburn, Padilla, Pineiro, etc. RJ was extremely unlucky on HR/FB last year. He is a FB lefty who gets a decent number of K. |
| 7. By: baseballman on 01-02-2010 15:01:36 Sheets would obviously be my first option. Next I would go after Bedard again. (when is he due back? is it still the june range?) Both contracts would have huge incentive laden clauses though. Bedard has just so much better stuff than the other guys mentioned. I think to not want him back because of the trade of jones, tillman etc is ridiculous...it happened, and its time to move on from it and if bedard gives us the best chance to win, then sign him. Sheets would be ideal, so lets hope he changes his stance on pitching in Seattle. |
| 8. By: banton on 01-02-2010 15:16:02 JAC- Is it reasonable to assume that none of our AA or AAA guys can step in as a #3/4? I don't really know enough about the specific pitchers that you have mentioned, other than Harang. I am not in favor of making an incentive-laden contract to Bedard. I would rather we get someone at the start of the season, and my understanding is that the Bedard time frame would be May 31st at the earliest. |
| 9. By: SethGrandpa on 01-02-2010 15:24:01 I'd be down for picking up a one-year flyer on Bedard over sticking with the guys we have in-house. There's no sense in the team sitting on the money when they can take a minor gamble with potential to pay off huge. |
| 10. By: Lonnie on 01-02-2010 15:42:08 banton asks: "Is it reasonable to assume that none of our AA or AAA guys can step in as a #3/4?" In the system right this moment we have one standout guy coming up from AA in Nick Hill, but with his mechanics he would not last long as a starter. He'll be a damn good addition to the bullpen though. One name that has been forgotten is Ryan Feierabend, but it's hard to say where he is with his rehab. He was great in AAA, but in his stints with the Mariners he was a steaming pile. Andy Baldwin is interesting and could slip into the Doogie Fister mold, but he was wildly inconsistant in 2009 with the Rainiers. We have some interesting arms in the system, but they have yet to reach the AA level so they aren't anything to depend on at this point in time. Ya, it's reasonable to assume that we don't have anyone who could step into the #3 or even the #4 role. Lonnie |
| 11. By: micahjr on 01-02-2010 16:15:00 I think that all the talk of bringing Bedard in at the beginning of the season is misplaced. Bedard won't be ready to pitch till after the first month, and probably later. I think that Bedard may end up back with Seattle, but he isn't going to be an offseason acquisition. Something that I've been thinking about, should Bedard not break his 5 inning barrier; what about using him in the bullpen? I know it wastes his talent, but he may not have the durability to be a starter anymore. Five innings and 110 pitches just won't get it done. Carrying Bedard forces a 12 man pitching staff, which it looks like the Mariners were moving away from. |
| 12. By: Rudolf on 01-02-2010 16:20:25 first choice- Aaron Harang. Pitches deep into games, would benefit from park/defense, affordable. I can't get 2007 out of my mind. He was fantastic. second choice- Ricky Nolasco. I doubt the Marlins are eager to give him up without a vigorous farm reaming. Strong #3. third choice- Ben Sheets. He might be my first choice, but there are so many question marks. If someone else nabs him I won't be shedding any tears. honorable mention- Derek Lowe. Atlanta would have to spill some serious coin. Just say no: Joel Pineiro, Joe Blanton, Josh Johnson. Just say hell no: Francisco Liriano. I like the guy, for sure, but not at the prices you're talking, Jason. Run away! |
| 13. By: Rudolf on 01-02-2010 16:21:14 Oh, and Bedard. He's like buying a four million dollar lottery ticket. As long as we've got the extra cash and expect nothing, why not? |
| 14. By: shortstop9 on 01-02-2010 17:10:09 I really think we should stay away from all the rehab guys like Sheets and Bedard. Harang is not cheap by any means,but would do well at Safeco.Try to trade for Arroyo(1 MIL per less) and Brandon Phillips with the Reds -it makes great sense and add a 1B. |
| 15. By: Slack on 01-02-2010 17:46:41 Bedard is a last resort in my mind. If thats what the M's have to do then so be it. But they aren't at that point yet. I like Sheets the best and I hope the M's can reel him in but just like Rudolf, I won't be shedding any tears if they don't get him. I wonder what it would take to get Harang. I don't know but I'm interested. |
| 16. By: slick on 01-02-2010 18:44:25 Is Jeremy Guthrie available, Baltimore picked up Millwood maybe more avialable then thought. Guthrie eats innings and his 40% flyball rate plays better in Safeco then in Camden. If you average the war of Guthrie over the last 3 years he is around 2.0. I wouldn't mind looking at Padilla but that guy is kind of a mental midget. |
| 17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-02-2010 19:23:18 Bedard was already offered $1 mil gtd, $4 mil with 15 starts, and other incentives. He didn't have shoulder labrum surgery or he wouldn't be pitching at all in 2010. |
| 18. By: Slack on 01-02-2010 19:36:52 I don't think Guthrie is available. I think Baltimore signed Millwood with the intend of having another veteran to pair with Guthrie. They may start the year with young SP's Tillman, Matusz and Bergesen in the rotation and so they will need all the veteran help they can get to nurture those guys or any other young pitcher (they have many) that are in their starting rotation. |
| 19. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-02-2010 20:34:15 Jason, What about LF? Seems like there are not many options out there for the M's. Are they confident that Bradley could man the position for the 2010 season and go after a DH type of player such as Guerrero? Or do you think they will look at free agents such as Nady, Damon, etc. |
| 20. By: Adam T on 01-02-2010 20:39:12 He didn't have shoulder labrum surgery or he wouldn't be pitching at all in 2010. Am I missing something? I thought he had a torn labrum that was repaired by Dr. Yocum on 8/14. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009664725_bedard_torn_labrum_out_four_to.html |
| 21. By: petermag on 01-02-2010 22:02:52 Bedard. No. Heck No. No matter how cheap. Clean break. Its over. Time to move on. ...it seems that jack is doing everything possible to make 2010 Jack's and Wak's team, and put the bavasi era forever behind us. resigning bedard would be another reminder. |
| 22. By: Lailoken on 01-02-2010 22:07:33 It was a labrum surgery alright this time, whereas the 08 shoulder surgery was the one he thought he had a labrum tear but didn't. Labrums that are torn pretty bad don't get 4 to 6 months throwing projections. This one wasn't so bad. Here's another link with a Bedard interview post-surgery: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009669776_erik_bedard_says_he_wants_to_c.html With the injury & Bedard's previous propensity for not going long in starts it might be better to base his incentives off of innings pitched. Wang, the Big Unit (weird when those follow each other), Pedro, Smoltz, Mulder, & Myers could also work for the right deals. Sheets, Blanton, & Harang are the only players on Jason's list who have a decent chance of helping the M's IMO. Wang has already been advocated by both Jason & Dave Cameron before. Obviously, the Unit would have to resolve things with Howard & Chuck for anything to happen but the team is now a legitimate contender which fits with Randy's huge desire to win. Pedro & Smoltz are winners too but are East Coast guys. Mulder is in the Bedard mold of incentive-laden but would be even cheaper since he's made only 4 starts since 2006. Still, he sounds healthier according to reports & his fastball was 90 mph on average in the small sample of last year so it's not like he's Chad Cordero. He'll likely sign with Milwaukie though as he's worked with Rick Peterson this offseason. Myers is another potential bargain. He's a bit of a headcase but he's only 29 & with his extended relief roles his arm hasn't been overworked. Vargas, French, & Olson are very similar to Washburn. Don't think his experience is worth the money, nor his personality. Mulder is close to GMZ's back of the rotation trifecta in pitch-to-contact stuff too. At least the Big Unit & Bedard are lefties with a better repetoire--- offspeed out pitches. Harang would be a huge value at a reduced salary. I still like the idea of sending them Snell to offset the cost a bit. Snell & Lopez would be a nice start to a package. Maybe we could take Rhodes & his $2 million salary off their hands too because none of the lefty relievers in free agency are very exciting. We could use one of those before the trade deadline. The Reds aren't going anywhere soon & a 40 yo lefty reliever isn't exactly in their long term plans. |
| 23. By: Lailoken on 01-02-2010 22:12:08 For the record Harang & Wang would be ideal IMO. Both are innings eaters. Felix, Lee, Hyphen, Harang, & Wang would allow the M's to carry only 11 pitchers. |
| 24. By: micahjr on 01-03-2010 01:25:37 How did I forget about Randy? If he is playing this year, and interested in pitching the back end of our rotation, I would certainly take a flyer on him retiring a Mariner. Also, on Bedard, he may have been partly responsible for Felix's great year, as Felix had a change in hip rotation that seemed to mimic Bedard. Let's hope it doesn't make him mimic Bedard's glass arm. |
| 25. By: Edman on 01-03-2010 03:13:36 petermag, your reasoning is horribly short-sided. Clean break, from what? The bad trade Bavasi made. Last I saw, that trade aside, the M's still had a fair season last year. And, while Bedard was healthy, he was part of that success. I'd have no problem bring Bedard back, at the right price. I'm not at all excited about giving Sheets a multi-year deal, after his injury. Bedard himself, didn't do anything to impede Seattle's success. He had health issues, but he still went out and pitched until he couldn't. Does he need to be a guy who'll proved 200 innings? No. Does he need to be there on opening day? No. Bottom line is, if he's affordable and could help you win the division, you don't limit your options, because you want to throw out the baby with the bath water. Does it mean that they should sign Bedard? No. Does it mean they should exclude him? Not if winning the division is their game plan. |
| 26. By: jgstecker on 01-03-2010 08:32:31 I'd vote for Harang as Option A. I'd much rather have someone I was fairly confident in being able to pitch in April. Frankly, I'd be surprised if they sign someone who isn't likely to be ready to go at Spring Training. If they were planning to go after a guy like Bedard or Wang, Morrow would have been a great fit. I'd really like to see some indication that Sheets is healthy before throwing any money at him. One option that might be interesting is signing both Randy and Bedard. You could probably land them both for less than Sheets or Harang would cost. Bedard would be a great mid-season boost while Randy is probably a steady #3 for however many innings he can hold up for. Also, i love the idea of seeing Randy pitch out of the back of the pen in the playoffs. |
| 27. By: dewey on 01-03-2010 08:40:42 Wang wont pitch until late may early june so dont count on him for innings. |
| 28. By: petermag on 01-03-2010 10:00:32 Edman, Its comical to me that you would accuse my comments as being short-sided, and use the reasoning that the club still had a "fair season" despite bedard being on the team? We are not fans of a team that wants to have fair seasons. Last year was excused because of the disaray of a franchise that Jack Z took over. We were okay with fair, because the team took the lemons that they had and made lemonade of it. But expectations are now raised. FO is not looking for another fair season. They want to compete and they want to compete this year. Bedard was one of the problems of a fractured clubhouse. He was one of the reason that Sweeney and Griffey were brought in. He couldnt take the heat of the spotlight. Obviously if he were to come back this year, he wouldnt be coming in as the featured ace number 1 of the staff. However, if youre building a playoff team, you want guys who are able to not only give the right production but be a good blend with the dreaded sabermetric word of "chemistry". Chemistry does matter. We can have every stat in the world and try to pretend that these guys are merely fantasy players without real lives, personalities, and opinions. But thats not the case. Yes production matters, but so does the fact that these guys spend the majority of their lives together. On that note, I dont believe Chone figgins is a Mariner if the Mariners didnt change their approach to playing AND cure the clubhouse with Griffey's tickling and Sweeney's preaching. Theres no stat to prove it, but there is a quote from Figgins that said he liked the way they played and how they acted as a team. We cant pretend that these guys are robots. Its no different in our offices and jobs at the workplace. If there is a jerk of a manager and the office is a terrible work environment, everyone is unhappy and performance levels are down. When a new manager from outside shows up, one of the first things theyre going to do is get rid of people who do not fit in with the culture that he/she is trying to accomplish. Im not saying that Bedard is a bad guy. I actually kind of like him and would like to go fishing with him. I wish him all the success in the world, somewhere else. But he represents too much to the fans and other players. It is not his fault, it is the ramifications of a poorly run organization prior to Jack showing up. For that reason, I dont want him back. We dont want fair seasons. We want a world series. Many of them. Bedard isnt the answer. There are plenty of fish in the sea. Time to move on. Time to have everyone involved thinking World Series. Many of them. |
| 29. By: Edman on 01-03-2010 12:25:57 By "fair" petermac, I in no way said that should be our goal. My point was, that Bedard was a part of last year's team, and did not inhibit its success. Other fans? You realize he was still part of the team last year. I didn't hear anyone complaining about him being in the clubhouse. Making stuff up? What he represents to the fans? You mean, what he represents to fans like you. I have seen a lot of things said about Bedard. The average fan could care less. The fans who have a problem with him being in Seattle had nothing to do with his ability. It had to do with what was given up to get him and how he failed to be the #1 starter Bavasi expected when he gave up so much. If Bedard can give Seattle a 150 quality innings, the Mariners on paper, should be more than fair. You wish to hold him personally responsible for Bavasi's bad judgement, that's up to you. But most rational fans would love to have Bedard as the #3 or #4 guy, if the price is right. And the average fan could really care less. If he's part of a team that is five games or more ahead of any other division rival, in April, nobody's gonna say, "Damn, it's too bad Bedard is on the team." Punish Bavasi, not Bedard. |
| 30. By: Marlin Man on 01-03-2010 12:28:19 Pienero? My god he and Silva come from the same mold- BP pitchers at best- I still can not believe that ANYONE would pay Joel; Anything to be in the majors- THE GUY MAKES ME gag! m.m. |
| 31. By: Edman on 01-03-2010 12:35:19 I meant July, not April. The point is the same. If the M's are winning and Bedard is a part of it, few will object. I'm with you on Piniero as well. I have concerns that he'll be a good NL pitcher, and a crappy AL pitcher. |
| 32. By: FatBat on 01-03-2010 12:51:26 Well my vote is Harang. Pull up his numbers for the last four years. Add the fact that he pitches in a hitters park, and there you go. The only question is the price. First- how much of his salery they eat. Secont- asking price. if its low I would eat more of that salery. Also. Why not sign Bedard as well as trade for Harang? You sit on Bedard for Two months...then you can always move or trade a guy, right? Say, Snell for agruement sake. If he is pitching good, you can move him to a team that needs a pitcher. Point is get both. And Bedard is a stud when healthy, anyone would love to have that guy! I would take 5 or 6 innings of 1 earned run of Bedard over Blanton 8 innings 4 earned...anyday! |
| 33. By: Mackie on 01-03-2010 13:38:25 Harang had three very good seasons from 05-07, but has been leaning toward the average side, if not the craptastic side, the last couple. It seems he could still be a decent #3-#4 SP and eat a fair amount of innings. If the Mariners didn't have to give up too much to get him, and/or if the Reds ate a large portion of the salary, and/or if other useful players came along to Seattle with Harang, I don't see why not. If the Mariners add Bedard at some point early in the season and find that he is healthy enough to count on, then great. It's the chance that he won't be healthy enough or that he will fall apart after a few starts that makes me leery enough to hope the M's look elsewhere for starting pitching. I hope if they do take on Bedard it won't cost much money they might be spending on players they could count on more. |
| 34. By: Chris Crawford on 01-03-2010 13:43:51 Ok, last warning. The next post from someone that looks like an excerpt from their new book is getting deleted. Or as Strong Bad says, too long clanky, too long. |
| 35. By: banton on 01-03-2010 14:53:24 I think that dMac33 has changed his screen name to PeterMag! |
| 36. By: micahjr on 01-03-2010 15:23:58 Bedard very well could be worth the money for half a season, the only problem that Bedard presents is from a roster construction perspective. If we carry Bedard, we have to have a 12 man pitching staff, which really limits our bench due to the presence of two guys who basically will be DHing most of their at bats in Griffey and Bradley. I just don't see it as an option to start the season. |
| 37. By: Edman on 01-03-2010 17:05:50 When was the last time that Seattle had an 11 man pitching staff, especially starting the season? You take the same risks no matter who you carry in those slots. There aren't many 7+ inning guy available as a #3 starter. And, certainly Vargas, Olsen, Fister & company didn't display any great ability to eat innings. Thus, carrying someone other than Bedard, on the current roster, doesn't carry any greater ability to go with an 11 man pitching staff. And, I think it's a huge jump to think that Bradley is a DH only kind of guy. He wouldn't be a horrible defensive option in LF, especially if he's not a DH only. |
| 38. By: nighthawk180 on 01-03-2010 18:28:11 I'm not against signing Bedard but you have to consider that he is coming off shoulder surgery. Not the scope he had last offseason. Even if he does come back early or at midseason what makes some guys think he will be Bedard of old. Im not saying he wont or he will but assuming that he will be as dominate self is highly unlikely. He will probably need a little while to reestablish is old form. By that time it could be playoff time so take it for what its worth. Just my 2 cents, Nighthawk180 |
| 39. By: FelixElRey on 01-03-2010 19:32:13 Edman, if there is ever a time to only carry 11 pitchers, it's at the beginning of the year with all the off-days and everyone in the bullpen being fresh. I'm not saying we should or we shouldn't, but it's the best time to do it. |
| 40. By: StandinPat on 01-03-2010 19:46:52 Actually the beginning of the season is when your starters have yet to be fully stretched out, and why the M's have broken camp with a 12 man staff for the past several years. |
| 41. By: FelixElRey on 01-03-2010 20:02:32 Regardless of what the M's have done in the past, it's not unheard of for teams to often skip the 5th starter and keep the typical 7 relievers. The fact that starters haven't yet been stretched out is poor planning, but when true, makes them not need the extra day of rest allowed by the frequent off-days. By no means would I say this is common, but I believe it's often considered...for what that's worth. |
| 42. By: Edman on 01-04-2010 00:51:45 Not unheard of, but Bedard's being part of a five man rotation, does not increase the odds of them needing 12 pitchers. In fact, if he won't be ready until sometime after the start of the season, he'd fit into your scenario, wouldn't he? My point is Bedard being one of the starters does not carry with it any greater need for 12 man pitching staff. Unless a team is carrying a rotation of inning eaters, 11 man staffs are rare. |
| 43. By: FatBat on 01-04-2010 12:46:28 Wouldnt any team that signed Bedard start him off on the 30 day DL? or 60 day? So it wouldnt matter weather he would force us to carey 11 or 12. |
| 44. By: FatBat on 01-04-2010 12:47:51 Also am I hearing Beltre has picked a team? |
| 45. By: JohnMcD on 01-04-2010 13:09:10 Ya, my guess is Boston. |
| 46. By: micahjr on 01-04-2010 15:44:26 With an 11 man pitching staff and two DH bats; Bradley will DH most of the time if we want to get anywhere near 500 AB out of him, our bench looks rather crowded: Griffey, Saunders, Langerhans, Moore, Hall, and Hannahan. That is six for 5 spots, with a 12 man pitching staff, you have to cut 2. Which would send Saunders back to the minors, and cut Langerhans, whom we just resigned. I'm not comfortable with a bench of Hannahan, and Hall, for all intents and purposes. That is what Bedard forces you into: having only two people to sub, outside of your backup catcher, and a DH. |
| 47. By: DMac33 on 01-04-2010 16:45:39 As with any deal, I think it's all dependent upon what you have to give up to get the player. All things being equal, Josh Johnson is a stud. He'd be a first choice. But then again, it's going to take a ton to get him. Harang has more of a track record than Nelasco - both of them would be good. I'm not sure though that I wouldn't rather kick the tires with Cincy and see about Arroyo instead of Harang ... but both are solid. I question whether or not Sheets will be interested in Seattle - and health is clearly a concern. Contract terms are important there. I tend to think that free agency is where the solution is - and Randy may be the best option out there. He's nowhere close to as dominating anymore, but he can still be effective and will definitely be aided by a team that can field the ball (the Giants had some ugly fielding at times last year). |
| 48. By: Edman on 01-04-2010 16:48:48 micahjr, there is only one DH only bat. Anyone can be a DH. Bradley is likely to see time in LF when Griffey is the DH. So what if Saunders goes back to the minors? Why couldn't they send him to Tacoma where he can play every day and refine his skills? Why waste him as a bench player. You assume he's got the job locked as the everyday LFer? It is highly doubtful that they'd keep Saunders on the roster, if he can't at least start 4-5 games a week. Bedard does not force the Mariners into anything that any other starter wouldn't. Teams seldom (as in rarely) start the season with 11 man pitching staffs. Signing Bedard presents no risk to anyone on the bench, since it's likely that they start the season with a 12 man pitching staff. As the starters get stretched out, they might consider an 11 man staff, later in the season. Bedard will likely start the season on the DL, and won't be put on the roster until he gets his pitch count up on rehab. |
| 49. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-04-2010 17:41:06 I have a hunch that Beltre is going to return to Seattle.... Bedard too. Both are logical fits for the Mariners, and are a huge step towards a division title in 2010. If the M's add Bedard, Beltre and LaRoche... we are in a great position for 2010. Bradley is likely the DH, I think so I'm not sure what the plan is for LF... anyone have suggestions? Jason?? |
| 50. By: DRWheelock on 01-04-2010 17:52:18 Jason - Any word if the Mariners are one of the teams in on this Beltre bidding today? A's appear to be out. If BoSox gets him it's a great indicator that BoSox are out of the Gonzo trading between now and July. Don't want to see Angels get him, and Twins are always low balling player contracts, so I don't see him with the Twins. The Cards are dumping all of their eggs into the Holiday $100M basket. Which I personally think it would be down to: BoSox, Mariners, Angels. |
| 51. By: DRWheelock on 01-04-2010 17:53:05 Actually Olney just tweeted that A's pulled their offer, so they're officially out. |
| 52. By: DRWheelock on 01-04-2010 17:54:24 I can't see it being the Dodgers, since everyone in Dodger land says they have no money to spend, and they also have Blake as a productive 3B guy. |
| 53. By: DRWheelock on 01-04-2010 18:41:33 Sounds like BoSox got him on a 1 year deal for $9M with a 2nd year player option for $5M. I think Seattle should of done that, but he is probably doing that in Fenway to boost his value next offseason FA value. NO WAY would he accept a $5M 1 year offer in 2011. He's going to hit 30HRs at Fenway and go for a 3-4 year deal in the $12M range after 2010! I really think this is really good for the Mariners: 1) Keeps solid D at 3B away from the Angels; 2) Takes BoSox out of the running for a Gonzo trade So, if the Pads are going to wait until July and BoSox are off the table we don't have to compete against a huge BoSox prospect offer for Gonzo. Just my thoughts. |
| 54. By: StandinPat on 01-04-2010 18:44:19 "the Giants had some ugly fielding at times last year" The Giants actually finished the year 4th in the majors in UZR and 5th in UZR/150, if anything their defense helped RJ. |
| 55. By: Rudolf on 01-04-2010 20:44:35 I'm just curious: with all this Gonzalez trade pumping on Mariner blogs, and the seemingly insatiable hunger for his production, who is ready and willing to give up Ackley, Triunfel, Saunders, Noriega and Morban for 1 1/2 years of Gonzo? And not that the Pads would do that; we don't have any real starting pitching to sell. But would you guys jump all over that "opportunity"? Heck, pretend we had two solid/strong pitching prospects to throw in with Ackley, Triunfel and Saunders. |
| 56. By: M-Pops on 01-04-2010 21:47:30 I love talking A-Gone; he is a perfect fit for this team. 27 years old, high OBP, GG defense, and lefty - he is the prototypical slugger the M's have been missing. For a team that plays in a park that naturally supresses runs, I would like to see them continue to invest in elite LH hitters. While I disagree that the Beltre signing takes the BoSox out of the bid for Gonzalez, my belief and hope is that if he is available, Z will do everything he can to get him here. Save for Ichiro and Ackley, I would not blink at just about any remotely reasonable 4-5 player package that nets Gonzalez. Get 'em Z! |
| 57. By: JohnMcD on 01-04-2010 22:02:50 Someone didn't get the memo of long posts. My eyes hurt |
| 58. By: pwhit44 on 01-04-2010 22:27:26 Why are we still talking about Gonzalez? I understand that we all dream about him (or someone like him) hitting clean-up for us. But that's just it. It's a dream. Unless you're looking to say goodbye to The King, it just ain't gonna happen. Seriously, it's just not. Even with Morrow, we had no chance. Players like that need to be developed within your own system. It's nearly impossible to trade for them, or even sign them. I'm not willing to give up Felix (or our entire farm for that matter), so I'm going to just to keep those thoughts where they belong -- night time fantasies. |
| 59. By: Rudolf on 01-04-2010 22:52:08 For 1 1/2 years of Gonzo you'd be willing to pay a 4-5 player package, huh? Like Gutierrez, Triunfel, Saunders, Moore and, say, Franklin/Morban/Pineda? I think you're flipping crazy, preejay. Even without Gutierrez; Ackley, Triunfel, Moore, Saunders, Franklin... bars in the window crazy. Gonzalez can hit a baseball and would help the team, no doubt, but Ackley and Triunfel are building blocks for this franchise; as in, many many years of control at more difficult to fill positions than first base. Even if the price was Ackley, Triunfel, Moore, Saunders I'm against it, and San Diego would probably balk. Like someone just said, sign Laroche for two years and then splurge after 2011. |
| 60. By: chrisd on 01-05-2010 00:11:04 I agree, why give up 4-5 prime prospects for 1 1/2 years of a player you can buy in FA? Or get another 1B that is very good, maybe not A-Gon but still very good? Don't M's need some RH batters who can hit the long ball; maybe Berkman or some other 1B or DH? |
| 61. By: chrisd on 01-05-2010 00:18:53 Jason, what do you think of Mike Lowell. Now that Beltre has signed with Sox, they have to trade Lowell. He has fairly good 340 OBP, 811 OPS for 09. His UZR/150 went from 15.6 for 08 to -14.4 for 09. Boy what a drop. Must be injury related. Since for 3 yrs 06-08 he averaged 10.0 uzr/150. Anyway, does he have the power to hit in Safeco? Is he worth considering a trade? I wonder what Rangers were giving up in trade for him when it was called off. |
| 62. By: Kailua Ms Fan on 01-05-2010 01:11:17 A 1B name I heard early in the offseason thats seems to be a Jack Z type of guy (low cost, high upside)is... Connor Jackson.... 2007 and 2008 OPS of over .820+... entering age 27 season... He was out sick w/valley fever last year and I bet he could be had for a couple of B or C prospects... Arizona was considering non-tendering earlier... Thoughts... |
| 63. By: micahjr on 01-05-2010 01:19:55 Edman, You didn't address my primary concern about the 12 pitcher roster construction: the Hall, Hannahan bench. I did have Saunders starting in LF, because he is the only player that is likely, besides Bradley, to not put up black hole numbers there. Hall and Langerhans can play D, but neither can hit. I can't see Bradley playing more than half of his games in LF, someone has to start the other half. With Hall starting those games you have a bench of Hannahan, Griffey and Moore, which translates to a bench of Hannahan, because you can't really defensively sub in Moore or Griffey, and Bradley would likely be starting DH in those games. I'm not against sending Saunders to AAA, it just doesn't seem like the way to maximize his and Bradley's value. |
| 64. By: micahjr on 01-05-2010 01:25:08 I don't see how Conor Jackson is a much better option than Mike Carp. He'd be a NL transfer, he's right handed, and doesn't offer any more power than Carp. It's a lateral move at best, and probably costs you something of potential value, whereas Mike Carp is already paid for. |
| 65. By: Kailua Ms Fan on 01-05-2010 01:44:15 Hmm... I would disagree Mike Carp hasn't put up 3 800+ OPS (05-08) seasons like Connor Jackson... I think we wouldn't even be in the market for a 1B if we thought Carp was a lock for 750 OPS... I like Carp as a decent back up to stock away in AAA. Who knows though he is young and could always develop more... If Conor Jackson gets a starting gig I think he is in the running for come back player of the year, especially after overcoming a serious illness... (bold 2010 prediction) At this point we have enough lefties so I don't think the handedness is an issue... he is a gap hitter so the deep left field should change him too much... 1 to 1 walks to K ratio... = patient hitter who can get on base= team motto I think he is a noticable upgrade from Carp... Which is needed if we are upgrading 1B (in my opinion the biggest hole that can be filled) Arizona also has a A top prospect that may want to give the starting 1b job too... Allen... so he would be cheap I have heard a lot of names thrown around for 1B and I like him more than any when the cost is factored in... including A. Gonzalez... (it would decimate our farm) |
| 66. By: Edman on 01-05-2010 01:45:07 micahjr, I did address it. There is less than a 5% chance that the M's go with an 11 man pitching staff. If it means something has to change on the bench, it will. They will not stress arms simply to make room for an extra bat on the bench. And, if they feel they can't get enough offense out of them, they'll likely seek a trade or signing that will. Seattle isn't in the business of maximizing Saunder's value. Saunders has to prove he's major league ready. To do that, he has to play. Will the let him to it on the ML roster? Probably not. He's gonna have to earn it. I don't ever recall a team starting the season with 11 pitchers. I doubt that Seattle will either. You want to rationalize your 11 man pitching staff concept, fine. But it has zero to do with signing Bedard or any other pitcher. |
| 67. By: Kailua Ms Fan on 01-05-2010 01:47:05 sorry for all the typos... its late, even for hawaii... I'll check back tomorrow to fuel the C Jackson campaign. |
| 68. By: d2ret on 01-05-2010 02:11:21 I'll throw out another name.. Fausto Carmona. I wonder if the Indians would want a lot for him. |
| 69. By: d2ret on 01-05-2010 02:15:03 They cant require too much with last years performance |
| 70. By: d2ret on 01-05-2010 02:17:52 ..make that the last two years |
| 71. By: d2ret on 01-05-2010 02:21:23 Plus hes owed 11 mil. over the next two years. And I'll learn to submit in one solid, cohesive post. Sorry |
| 72. By: DRWheelock on 01-05-2010 07:21:45 I like Adrian Gonzalez. I warned everyone. |
| 73. By: safecochatter on 01-05-2010 08:40:41 imho jack z doesn't want anyone near this team that even "smells" like bavasi. the systematic purging of bavasi's roster is self evident. no doubt,the team is light years better,but it is what it is. and if i'm indeed right,bedard or washburn won't ever be on "jack's" team. that being said full steam ahead on sheets. |
| 74. By: Edman on 01-05-2010 11:33:16 chatter, that's just plain silly. You mean if Bavasi had acquired an All-Star player, Jack would purge him, just because he was from the Bavasi era? Jack and Wak put their signature on this team last year. He doesn't need to purge anyone, other than those who aren't very good. When you have a 100 loss season, there's lots that can be purged. Should we start looking for him to trade off everyone Bavasi drafted? He moved high-profile prospects, because that's what it took to get a deal done. It wouldn't matter who drafted them. Bavasi happened to be the GM at the time they were drafted. No, it isn't what it is. Not resigning Bedard or Washburn is a baseball decision, not a statement about the Bavasi era. You are painting Jack in your mold. He's a smart GM who'll bring back the guys he thinks can help him win, even it it's Bedard or Washburn. Good GMs don't limit their options, they keep open minds. |
| 75. By: jkcmason on 01-05-2010 13:09:35 Jason & bloggers, I have to disagree with you on two fronts here. I did a simple analysis of Sheets, Liriano, Harang, Nolasco, Bedard, Johnson, Piniero, Lowe, Blanton, and Washburn pertaining to FIP, WAR, Avg IP per year, and Average Value (info from fangraphs). Ben Sheets blows every pitcher away aside from Randy Johnson. I think that we can discount Randy Johnson because he is 46 and not pitching like he was in his prime. Your guys first pick is Aaron Harang? Why? FIP Avg WAR Avg IP Avg Value Sheets 3.56 4.25 178 $14.4mil Harang 4.10 2.8125 167 $10.6mil Likely cost of Harang $6-8 mil plus the prospects you would have to give up in the trade Likely cost of Sheets $8-9mil for this year with an option for next. I would be willing to sign him for two years straight up myself. Harang could probably come at below market value, but he doesn't seeem to be as good of a deal as Sheets is. The second disagreement has to do with Liriano: "Without dealing Dustin Ackley as a player to be named later and including Carlos Triunfel, Michael Saunders and more, plus a third team, it's got little-to-no shot of happening this winter." Is this an educated guess, or an actual rumor that you are picking up? This doesn't sound very realistic at all. First of all a deal with the Twins would likely involve Jose Lopez plus. Liriano Shouldn't demand a ton more than Brandon Morrow. I realize that Brandon Morrow has never come close to what Liriano did in 2006, but Liriano has had Tommy John Surgery since then. To expect that kind of a haul for Liriano is absurd. Roy Halladay just went for around that cost with a guarantee that he will sign a below market value extension. I think that a rotation like below is attainable without giving up too much and still having some money left for an Adam LaRoche, Felipe Lopez Combo for 1B & 2B. 1- Felix Hernandez 2- Cliff Lee 3- Ben Sheets 4- Francisco Liriano 5- Ryan Rowland-Smith I am not trying to attack with this post, but I am curious what your thoughts are on why you are choosing Harang over Sheets and Why you think Liriano would cost that much? |
| 76. By: mazono on 01-05-2010 13:48:40 JAC- Any truth to this? http://twitter.com/ACardenas13 Franklin Gutiérrez está a punto de firmar un acuerdo con Seattle por 4 temps y $20.5 millones + opción para el equipo. Gutierrez Extension? |
| 77. By: FelixElRey on 01-05-2010 13:49:22 Obviously not Jason, but... Harang isn't coming off of surgery and has thrown a pitch in the past year, which is a plus. If you get Harang, you have a better idea of what he will offer in terms of productivity whereas Sheets is more of a risk. I don't think anyone would argue that a healthy Harang is better than a healthy Sheets. Liriano had major surgery. They take a tendon from the forearm, drill holes in the bone and weave it through and wait for the body to turn it into a ligament. That takes time! Liriano is approaching the "tell-tale" year where he should be back to 100%. I think the point Jason made about what it would take to get him is that Liriano is not a "sell-low" candidate. It's very possible that he will return to dominance, and until this season plays out, he will be valued as a top of rotation starter by the Twins. Jason, I know how much you hate to have words put into your mouth, so hopefully I didn't skew your words too much. |
| 78. By: FWBrodie on 01-05-2010 13:49:30 Jason or anyone else have any information on Noah Lowry? He was non-tendred by the Giants I believe and had a couple pretty nice seasons before being injured and sitting out for the past two seasons. Does he have a chance to get back? How close is he? I think I read that his agent is saying he's healthy, but that was his agent. |
| 79. By: Edman on 01-05-2010 13:52:08 I can't speak for Jason, but there is one glaring reason to be worried about Sheets....."recovering from Tommy John Surgery" Harang, as far as I know, isn't injured or recovering from injury. Typically by my observation, pitchers do not come back the year following surgery and post the same numbers they did before. I don't have the stats on it, but my observations are that it takes nearly two years for pitchers to make a complete recovery. In a way, Liriano is a decent risk, for that reason. I wouldn't give up a great deal to get him. But I'd be willing to investigate it as a option, if Minnesota was interested. |
| 80. By: FelixElRey on 01-05-2010 14:01:15 Ben Sheets did not have Tommy John. He had a flexor tendon repair. Similar injury that put Felix on the DL early 2007, except Sheets' was bad enough (partially torn) to require surgery. Still, surgery on a tissue that undergoes tremendous stress while pitching warrants caution. |
| 81. By: Edman on 01-05-2010 14:11:27 Thanks for the correction, I read TJ somewhere else. |
| 82. By: micahjr on 01-05-2010 14:37:44 Edman, your ideas are noted, but try not to make up numbers for the front office that you couldn't possibly know, and then state them as fact. Z and crew have indicated that they may go with an 11 man staff, and it has been discussed on both lookout landing, and ussmariner (they suggest it every year, and they aren't alone). You are probably right about the less than 5% chance, but you should state it as an opinion, not a fact, otherwise, no one will like you. I know, because I've ran afoul of the same behavior in myself. There are plenty of examples of 11 man pitching staffs over the past several years, but I couldn't find one example of a team breaking camp with 11. The Mariners even did it before the All-Star Break last year. Every year beat writers and bloggers debate about 11 man pitching staffs; its a philosophical thing. Ben Sheets did not have Tommy John surgery on his elbow. His injury was less severe. |
| 83. By: StandinPat on 01-05-2010 14:47:21 The Mariners haven't broken camp with only 11 pitchers in recent memory. The 12 man staff is a safe guard as many pitchers are still getting stretched out from ST, and blowing out a starters arm in Apr-May would be a bad thing. For all intents and purposes it should just be assumed that the M's will have a 12 man staff and a 4 man bench until it is proven otherwise. |
| 84. By: Edman on 01-05-2010 15:21:55 micahjr, I made up nothing. The only manager I remember who used an 11 man pttching staff, was Sweet Lou. And, it didn't last long. I don't give a crap if the gang at Lookout Landing, USS Mariner, Scout, et al, recommend it, that doesn't make it anywhere close to reality. Look at the numbers. Show me any team, in the modern era of baseball, that have broken out of Spring Training with an 11 man pitching staff. Yes, 5% was speculation. I expected that you could determine that yourself. If I was stating fact, I'd have given a number like 3.4%, that is based on statistical analysis. 11 man staffs are generally workload and schedule dependant, and do not last longer than a few weeks. My point is not around the validity of an 11 man pitching staff. It was centered around your comments that Bedard prevents them from using an 11 man pitching staff. That's simply not true. Bedard's signing would have little, if anything, to do with prohibiting it. |
| 85. By: jkcmason on 01-05-2010 17:50:52 FelixElRay- No Offense, but I am going to have to disagree with you still. I am excited about the fact that Ben Sheets had a year off. Coming back from a partially torn tendon that had a full year and a half to heal is a good thing. He should be ready to go. Even during Harang's prime 2005-2007 his FIP never reached what Sheets averages over his full career. I am not saying we just offer the guy a contract and don't take a physical. Both Harang and Sheets come with question marks, but at the same cost the stats show Sheets is the better pitcher. I would rather go with the better pitcher. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/valuing-the-harangutan I tell you what, give me a stat line for each pitcher and what you expect them to do this next year if they were in Safeco Field. For Liriano "It's very possible that he will return to dominance, and until this season plays out, he will be valued as a top of rotation starter by the Twins." It is also very possible that he doesn't, and his dominance lasted only 120 innings before he was seriously injured. I will give you that Francisco Liriano has a great upside, but he is the epitome of a High Risk - High Reward player. If he is one the market he gets nowhere near the value of a Roy Halladay, and from other rumors he looks to be on the market. I am not trying to say I don't like the guy, I would love to see him on the mound at Safeco in an M's Jersey, but the Twins couldn't realistically demand that much for his services. |
| 86. By: shortstop9 on 01-05-2010 21:48:21 We need some pop from a player who can be a defensive upgrade also. Brandon Phillips -for Lopez,Truinfel,Saunders,Lowe,etc. 1-Ichiro 2-Figgins 3-Bradley 4-Phillips 5-Griffey 6-Guttierez 7-Kotchman 8-Moore 9-Wilson Bench- Langerhans,Johnson/Bard,Hannahan,Carp |
| 87. By: maqman on 01-09-2010 09:06:24 Vlad evidently did not get an offer from Texas for $7MM as originally reported. If he did and didn’t take it then it seems a dumb move, they are his best hope of looking good this season. IMO Thome would take $5MM from the Ms, maybe with some incentive bucks. However, The Safe is not going to help make him look good when next year comes around. One FA that might fit the Ms is Jonny Gomes, not that I’m a fan of his but his numbers and cost/value comparisons are not bad. Harang is not a good deal in my eyes, Jon Garland, Joel Piniero, Noah Lowry, Odalis Perez and Vicente Padilla might produce good value for cost and Sheets seems to want too much. Don’t know about Wang health-wise and Todd Wellemeyer is okay but too much of a NL type pitcher. |
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