Prospect Insider - The AFL
The AFL

By Chris CrawfordBy 10-12-2010

The Arizona Fall League gets going today for the Seattle Mariner affiliate Peoria Javelinas. Dustin Ackley (who homered in his first at-bat), Nate Tenbrink, Matt Mangini, Josh Lueke, Maikel Cleto, Tom Wilhelmsen and Josh Fields will be representing Seattle in the games -- which run from now through November 18th. Wilhelmsen replaced Dan Cortes on the roster, but Cortes will be pitching in Venezuela this winter.

Jason won't be making it to the to the games this year, but I will be making a trip late November, and of course, we have all of our connections on speed dial to break anything and everything that happens. Until the action starts heating up -- here's five things to keep an eye on over the next months.

1. Ackley's defense

Scouts still don't love the way it looks, but the results have been good enough. We'll see if that changes in Arizona.

2. Consistency from the relievers

It's not about results, but delivery/mechanics, command, etc, means a lot, because that is generally the reason they are there. Fields needs the work, plain and simple.

3. Cleto's role

He's slated to start games in the AFL, but it may be nearing time to toss him in the bullpen. For now, his secondary stuff needs the reps, and he needs to repeat his delivery to help out those off-speed offerings. Results don't mean much here, either.

4. Can Tenbrink hit the decent pitching in the AFL?

Scouts like the swing, the hand-eye and the approach, at least as far as a big-league contributor is concerned.

5. Which club will like Lueke enough to send the M's a Class-A prospect for him?

That's the direction the club is heading, sadly, and the AFL is simply a showcase for the Mariners to trade him away.


the-afl

Comments
The following 32 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1.  By: canis19 on 10-12-2010 15:56:10
Would you advocate a Lueke and another prospect for Chris Iannetta? Would the Rockies be open for this type od deal?

2.  By: Marco on 10-12-2010 16:52:11
"That's the direction the club is heading, sadly, and the AFL is simply a showcase for the Mariners to trade him away."

That's not just sad, it's one of the worse side of modern conformity.


3.  By: Edman on 10-12-2010 17:21:01
Agreed, Marco. Anyone can be a political coward. It takes no special skills. And, if that's the case, they can shove their "world class" organization right up their arse.

I'm not sure that it's necessarily the direction Seattle is heading, but certainly you can thank many of the fans and media who were more than willing to grab a torch and join the crowd. Mobs are easy to form and always seem right, until they look at the results of their actions.

Me personally, I wouldn't bend to any mob, no matter their intent. Rational decision should always trump reactionary condemnation.

4.  By: Rudolf on 10-12-2010 17:45:21
It's sad. It's pathetic. It's infuriating.

It makes me wonder why I'm so loyal to this organization. How many bonehead maneuvers will it take? I cut my friends and kids less slack than I do the home team. I think I'm sick.

A part of me wants to stand above the dugout and scream out loud every horrible thing I've ever done, and then ask if I'm still allowed to watch the game.

5.  By: bcsimons on 10-12-2010 18:35:39
Ackley thing with homering in first at-bats doesnt he?

6.  By: Missthosepilots on 10-12-2010 20:32:33
Mariner fan living in Colorado. Believe me, Iannetta has completely underperformed here. He is lost at bat here. In Safeco he might completely disappear. Potential but two big disappointing seasons.

My 2 worthless cents but M's could do better.

7.  By: slamcactus on 10-13-2010 10:46:44
"Would you advocate a Lueke and another prospect for Chris Iannetta? Would the Rockies be open for this type od deal?"

I know the Rockies have handled Iannetta's development poorly, but hoping they'd ship him off for a reliever and another non-elite prospect is a pipe dream.

8.  By: mauricewilliamsiii on 10-13-2010 10:51:32
I cannot believe the condemnation Lueke has recieved in the abscence of any other deviant behavior.

What is disgusting is that a football player like Ben Roethlisberger will be welcomed back as a returning hero this weekend while many are hesitant to give this kid any semblance of a second chance.

9.  By: Missthosepilots on 10-13-2010 11:09:16
Slam, supposed rumors are that Iannetta will be tried at 1st and 3rd also. The trouble is he still struggles at the plate with contact. Rockies have wanted to make Iannetta the primary catcher two years in a row (after good contract)but he really struggled. He was sent down for a time last year so frustration level with team has to be there.

Maurice, Marco, others...great points about Lueke. What I don't get is that people say that he is unkeepable for what he has done so we must trade him. I am sorry but I just don't understand that one. If that ends up happening, I hope the M's realize how inconsistent that would be. If I buy a stolen gun (unknowingly or knowingly)that was used in a violent crime, what am I suppose to do with the gun when I have all the facts? Should I turn it in to the police? But then I would have a 100% loss. I guess I could just sell it on Ebay to get my money back and act like a hero for taking a stand? No way. Bad illustration but tired of the story line. If Lueke has changed and continues in it, should he not be given a chance to do that when so many in every sport continue to get away with their own junk?

Good thoughts guys. Thanks.

10.  By: VikingArthur on 10-13-2010 15:24:32
If you want to know why the Mariners seem deadset on trading Lueke you need not look further than the people around you at Safeco Field. 90% of them would rather have a group of guys they can call Boonie, Gutie, Cammie than to watch a winner. A bunch of do-gooder soccer moms and emasculated husbands toting their parasitic children around.

Most of them secretly resent athletic ability because it does not fit into their world view of equality of outcome. Mariner fans (not the actual fans like people on this site) but the vast majority of jokers at the games don't give a damn about winning and that is one of the reasons why this organization won't win shit.

11.  By: Marco on 10-13-2010 16:25:59
"A bunch of do-gooder soccer moms and emasculated husbands toting their parasitic children around."

And do they need sabermetrics, too ?



12.  By: Edman on 10-13-2010 18:35:06
Okay Arthur, and you do realize that those you prefer to stereotype are actually showing up to games and fincancially supporting the team? How many games a year does a "real fan" like you attend? Season tickets?

The joker is the one who thinks that some fans count more than others. Every fan counts. And, I think it's a bit naive to assume that those fans don't care about winning. I don't know any fan, casual or not, who doesn't appreciate winning.

Safeco does provide an "experience" for fans who attend games, from soccer mom to saberaholics. And, while you're busy ripping in to those fans you seem to disagree with, remember that it's them who keep the ship afloat. Without them attending in bad times, it would be hard for the M's to justify much of a budget.

There's room for everyone. And honestly, I don't think it's those fans who really are complaining. There are those on all sides of the game who've had opinions, not just those you've singled out. And really, it makes no difference. The M's need to make the best possible decision, that considers all the facts that surround Lueke. Someone should be standing up and acknowledging that Lueke and the justice system are done with their business. In my mind, it gets down to being willing to extend a hand or slap it away. I side with giving him a chance to prove he can keep his nose clean, rather than assuming that he cannot. Compassion is risky, but it's good for the human soul when it works out.

13.  By: tridenttrue on 10-13-2010 19:05:34
I mentioned in another thread that the lack of a Lueke call-up, to me, made it pretty clear his future with the M's was already sealed. Looks like he will be quietly ushered out of the organization this winter.

Putting what he was accused of to the side for a moment, what is troubling is that post-trade it sounded like he was brought to Seattle where the FO laid down the law on his conduct from here on. From everything I've heard the kid was a model citizen on and off the field since and is working to put the incident behind him.

Yet once the "thicked-skinned" FO were made to look bad in the press, heads began to roll. Image is king with Armstrong/Lincoln, to them I think they believe it puts more butts in the seats and there is some validity to that. But once again it appears they are ready to shed talent to maintain the image of the organization...even if the kid apparently was living up to his end of the bargain. Sad.

My $ .02

14.  By: everblue77 on 10-13-2010 20:05:50
Like it or not...perception is reality. Look no further than the rampant, idiotic political ads every year. The masses don't, no won't, take the time to evaluate all aspects of a situtation and therefore have an educated opinion. Most will pick up on what they hear on the radio, the tv, on the bus, at work etc. and buy into it. The ole...throw enough shit at the wall and some of it is bound to stick theory.

...so regarding Lueke. The M's know the situation but now have to deal with the "election result" opinions from the fans, sponsors & others where $$ reigns supreme. If the greater good for the organization is to trade him, then trade him. Sacrifices have been around for a loooong time in efforts to soothe. One individual will not make or break this team...ever.

15.  By: Missthosepilots on 10-13-2010 20:14:53
Blue, that is the educated voters with the parasitic children? Crazy world that too oft enjoys the dumb. Don't know how many of you remember Ron Leflore but in a world today where few teams are made up of model citizens to begin with, it has been great to see those guys that did turn their lives around.

You have to hand it to George S. He would not have taken an opinion poll on this. In time, it is winning that fills the stadiums, not fancy stadiums, good food or nice guys.

16.  By: gwangung on 10-13-2010 21:59:05
Well, if pereception is reality, it's also true that you can help shape reality. And there was an opportunity...in fact, there still IS an opportunity...to take Lueke and his situation and make it part of their non-baseball message.

17.  By: Missthosepilots on 10-14-2010 11:04:14
Good point Gwangung. Silence was not golden. Say it like it is, state how Lueke has been, what is expected...and most of this then is mute.

18.  By: Daryl on 10-14-2010 11:45:39
Excellent thoughts and posts guys! I have been curious about how good Lueke is projected to be at the major league level?

19.  By: lewis on 10-14-2010 12:24:27
Chris,
How is Wilhelmsen looking, was wondering what his strengths and weeknesses are? Does anyone know how Indepenent League players are obtained? They are not drafted, so are they free agents or is there a special draft?

Thanks,

20.  By: subterranean on 10-14-2010 13:16:40
I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the Lueke situation keeps coming up, though I wish we could put it to rest. I think there are strong arguments to be made for a number of different moral positions on this issue and I can understand them all. I don't have a problem either way if the team were to stand by him or ship him off. I didn't have a problem with getting rid of Julio Mateo. I don't even think that that is the real issue here. The real issue is what this episode says about the communication going on internally in this organization and how well the Mariner's front office functions. Let's leave the moral arguments out of it. If the team has a position on violence towards women and they want to operate under certain principles I can understand that, I'm not going to attack them from that standpoint, but this whole thing smacks of some bigger internal communication issues and how trades and personnel are vetted.

21.  By: subterranean on 10-14-2010 13:19:31
I also read something incisive elsewhere this morning - basically that anyone who thinks there is no 'truth' should try being wrongfully imprisoned.

22.  By: Missthosepilots on 10-14-2010 14:05:58
Sub, good thoughts. Lots of them through all this. I wish the whole Lueke episode had not started with open communication from day one. But I fear it will continue until Z stand before the press and lays out why they got him and why they are going to keep him....or else why they then just traded him. Each time he pitches a shutout 9th in the Fall league it will only continue to reappear.

Appears to me the kid can pitch. But the support or non-support, in my 2 cents, should not rest upon that.

23.  By: Lonnie on 10-14-2010 18:01:54
I find it borderline amusing that anyone thought that Lueke was going to get a Sept call up this year. Right or wrong, the kid is a lightning rod of contention at the moment and nothing will help except time. Lueke will be suiting up with the Mariners in ST, count on it. He should make a hell of a case to make the travelling 25, and probably will. There will be a week or two with a lot of questioning the decision, but in the end the M's will do what is best for the team and for Lueke.

Of course, if he is packaged up in a trade all bets are off.

Lonnie

24.  By: baseballfan on 10-15-2010 07:18:00
I'm disappointed at all the name calling by posters who
support Lueke - can't you express yourself better,without
derogatory comments about others? I'm all for giving 2nd
chances, but pleading no contest to a charge is a nice way
of pleading guilty, which is what Lueke did - so that's
worth considering - I'm not opposed to the Marniers keeping
him - but, if I ran another organisation,considering the
likely blowback, I won't take lueke even if he only cost
a bag of balls.


25.  By: baseballfan on 10-15-2010 07:24:03
Subterranean,
Excellent post

26.  By: Missthosepilots on 10-15-2010 11:34:45
Baseballfan, I agree about the derogatory remarks when opinions are expressed. With regard to Lueke, this thread has been about the most respectful. That is as it should be. Not sure if you were talking about this particular one but if you don't like this "G" rated thread, you would NOT enjoy other known sites in town. Thankfully, this was a good exception from the norm.

27.  By: Marco on 10-15-2010 13:42:18
"I'm all for giving 2nd chances.....I'm not opposed to the Marniers keeping him - but, if I ran another organisation,considering the likely blowback, I won't take lueke even if he only cost a bag of balls."

baseballfan, is that to shut every door in his faces a new unconventional way to handle 2ns chances ?



28.  By: rocketdawg31 on 10-15-2010 16:22:49


It was decreed in a court of law that Josh Lueke owed a debt to society. Josh Lueke paid his debt to society. Lueke has a profession, and that is pitching a baseball.

And he's good enough at it to warrant a major-league audition at this point in time.

Despite every attempt to convince their fan-base otherwise at times, we are a major-league ballclub.

If we don't trade him and don't give Lueke the chance that he's earned within the parameters of his profession- for the sake of some my-poop-don't-stink type of do-gooders that we're so convinced buys gobs of tickets to see this team- then we're cowards and unfair.

I was given second chances. I'm all for second chances. That's where I stand on the Lueke matter.

29.  By: safecochatter on 10-15-2010 16:25:45
leaks from severat sources now say eric wedge is the next mariner manager.
Wedge, 42, managed the Indians from 2003 to 2009, compiling a 561-573 record.



30.  By: Lailoken on 10-15-2010 16:25:59
May be nothing but in the Javelina's third game Cleto's velocity suddenly dropped in his third inning & he was replaced. The pitchfx machine may be off (could be changeups) or he might've suddenly tired for a couple of pitches. Anyway, he was consistently sitting in the mid to upper nineties reaching 99 in the first inning. In the third he was still sitting 94+ with his four-seamer until his last two pitches listed as four-seamers went 89 & 88. Right after those he was pulled. I just hope he didn't get injured.

31.  By: 11records on 10-16-2010 09:48:21
When did Adam Loewen get switched from pitcher to OF? Sorry - I'm Canadian. I have to ask... Is he seen as a legit hitting prospect?

32.  By: Lailoken on 10-16-2010 12:01:23
Loewen had elbow problems. He switched after the 2008 season. As a minor league free agent I hoped the Ms would sign him but he wanted to hook up with the only Canadian team left. He did better in AA this year than he did in High A last year but he imploded in the 2nd half which puts his prospect status in limbo as a 26 yo.

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