| By Chris Crawford |  | By 11-30-2010 |
This was a pretty popular piece last year -- so I figured I'd bring back a look at how the division is shaping up for next season based on what has come in, and what could be leaving.
The numbers in parenthesis are that players 2010 Wins Above Replacement, per the good people at fangraphs.
Note: Not included are many, many minor league free agents -- because they just aren't that important. Also not-included for anyone but Seattle is potential non-tenders. As we see more players non-tendered on the transaction sheet we'll add them to the list.
Oakland Athletics:
Coming: David DeJesus (2.6), Edwin Encarnacion (1.8)
TOTAL: 4.4 wins
Going: Vin Mazzaro (0.0), Rajai Davis(1.2)
TOTAL: 1.2 wins
Limbo: Ben Sheets (0.6), Justin Duchscherer (0.2), Eric Chavez (-0.4)
TOTAL 0.4 wins
Summary: The A's winter could be interesting. The only free agents of value were three guys that have the health records of a 97 year old woman -- and they return one of the youngest teams in baseball. The DeJesus trade should help the offense, and Davis is a one tool player who doesn't walk -- an Oakland A no-no. There have been rumors that they are willing to spend money on an Adrian Beltre type, so this is a team to watch in the off-season, as they've already been one of the more active teams to start.
Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim
Coming: Nothing yet.
TOTAL: 0.0 wins
Going: Nothing yet.
TOTAL: 0.0 wins
Limbo: Hideki Matsui (1.9), Scot Shields(-0.4)
TOTAL: 1.5 wins
Summary: Last year, the Angels off-season resulted in the loss of double digit wins with the departures of John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Vlad Guerrero among others. This year, they lose a couple of very useful players -- if it was 2006.
The money they did spend wasn't spent particularly well either. Joel Pineiro was ok, but Fernando Rodney was below average for far too much money and Matsui was mediocre at best. The Angels are rumored to be in on every free agent out there -- including Carl Crawford -- so don't be surprised if the Angels make a much larger splash than last year. It remains to be seen if that splash will be a tidal wave or a sunken ship, though.
Texas Rangers
Coming: Yorvit Torrealba (2.4)
TOTAL: 2.4 wins
Going: Nothing yet
TOTAL: 0.0 wins
Limbo: Cliff Lee (7.1 with two teams), Bengie Molina (0.4, two teams), Vladimir Guerrero (2.6), Jorge Cantu (0.0), Cristian Guzman (-0.1, two teams) Matt Treanor (0.1), Frank Francisco (1.0)
TOTAL 11.0 wins
Summary It looks like Frank Francisco is going to accept arbitration, but the Rangers still have plenty of work to do. The Rangers appear to be willing to spend big to keep Lee, but let's be honest; The Yankees are a pretty formidable foe on any free agent, especially one as good as Clifton Pfifer Lee. While the Rangers are probably still favorites to win the AL West even without Lee, Texas has a lot of work to do if it wants to repeat as American League champion -- and signing the left hander would likely take up most of the resources.
Seattle Mariners
Coming: Nothing yet
TOTAL: 0.0 wins
Going: Brian Sweeney (-0.1)
TOTAL -0.1 wins
Limbo: Casey Kotchman (-1.1), Jose Lopez (0.7), Russell Branyan (2.0, two teams), Josh Bard (0.2), Jamey Wright (0.0, two teams), Ryan Langerhans (0.7)
TOTAL: 2.5 wins
Summary: Bo-ring. And it could stay this way, but it wouldn't be a very safe bet, not based on Jack Zduriencik's history. You may not see a Cliff Lee type deal, or a J.J. Putz massive three team trade like the year before, but you will see something fun -- of that I'm (fairly) sure.
Not exactly the most thrilling month of off-season moves, but it gives you an idea of what should/could be going on. We'll update these on a near weekly basis, or whenever necessary. Here's to having to update the last team mentioned ASAP.
the-al-west-movement:-2011-early-edition
Comments
The following 29 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Lailoken on 11-30-2010 18:20:58 Jason or Chris, When do you expect Jose Lopez to be moved. Before the non-tender date or will he be tendered & then traded? |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-30-2010 19:06:12 I think he gets non-tendered by Thursday's deadline. The Rockies like him, he may end up there. |
| 3. By: Lailoken on 11-30-2010 20:55:25 Thanks Jason. |
| 4. By: ryansavage on 11-30-2010 22:22:17 Is it possible for a team to go to arbitration with a player, see what salary he gets, then make a decision to keep him or not? I know the NHL does this but not sure about MLB. Basically could the M's go to arbitration with Lopez to see what he gets or see how the do finding a replacement without being obligated to his salary? |
| 5. By: Daryl on 12-01-2010 00:08:17 What is M. Bradley's status? Is he done or how likely is it that he could be a productive player for them next year? |
| 6. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-01-2010 01:46:23 He is in a contract year. Not sure how that will affect his play. But he put up All-Star numbers in Texas before he signed his big 3-year deal with Chicago. So hopefully that's some incentive for him to really try and focus. A new manager, new faces, new change, can have an impact on certain players. Now whether that's negative or positive remains to be seen. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-01-2010 03:08:32 ryansavage, No, but clubs do have options. If the M's tender an offer to, say, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and then he struggles in spring training, there is a date in March, two of them, actually, when the club can cut bait and owe a fraction of whichever total the two sides agreed to -- or the amount arbitrator dictated -- and nothing more. It's called termination pay. If the move is made more than 16 days prior to the start of the regular season, the team would owe 30 days worth of pay, or about 1/6 of the salary. If the move occurs fewer than 16 days prior, the player will receive 45 days worth of pay. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-01-2010 03:10:33 Daryl, He's on a short leash, for one. Secondly, Bradley rarely plays well unless the lineup around him is halfway decent. He may or may not get a legit shot to turn it around, depending on what else the club does this winter. It doesn't sound like they want to eat the $11 million right now, but that could change. |
| 9. By: Madison Mariner on 12-01-2010 04:06:14 Thanks for the review of what's happened so far, Chris(and Jason for the comments.) I'm confused on the 'Limbo' portion for the M's. Since Casey Kotchman and Ryan Langerhans were outrighted a few weeks ago and refused their outright assignments, choosing free agency instead, shouldn't they be in the 'Going' category? Or is there some thought that they might return on minor league, or even major league(gasp!) contracts for next season? (And before I ask, I guess it's clear that you are only including moves on the major league roster, since we've had several minor league contracts handed out.) |
| 10. By: Madison Mariner on 12-01-2010 05:08:19 And you even said in the note that the review didn't include minor league free agents, so my bad on that. Still wondering about why Kotchman and Langerhans are in 'Limbo'(as well as Bard and Wright, who are both free agents). |
| 11. By: shortstop9 on 12-01-2010 08:59:07 Do you have any ideas why the M's are not in on the Jason Bartlett trade? Seems like a great fit at SS/2B. |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-01-2010 10:22:45 Might be money on Bartlett and Hardy. They owe Wilson $5 mil guaranteed and Bartlett and Hardy are both likely to make at least that in 2011. They may feel like they aren't in a position to pay 10-plus million for any of the three SSs. |
| 13. By: Edman on 12-01-2010 10:49:15 My personal preference is that they not commit something like 5 million to another shortstop. They can't move Wilson without absorbing most of his contract. If they're going to spend $5 million, I'd rather they go after a leftfielder, solid DH or secondbaseman on a one year deal. If you can find the right outfielder/DH, I could see giving a longer deal, but certainly not at secondbase. Where I think they need to improve is finding a better back-up option than Josh Wilson on the infield. Jack has issues staying healthy, but when he is healthy, he plays plus defense. I'd rather they pay more than minimum wage to improve that position. Reality is that we'll have to live with some bad contracts. It doesn't mean they should sit still, but I can't see them simply writing of $15-20 million unless there is an extremely good reason for it. I think Bradley will be given a chance to earn at least most of his pay. What we need to understand is that those contracts will be gone in next year's budget. Add to that, the potential blossoming of some of the kids. It might be a bit painful, but we're headed in the right direction. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-01-2010 10:53:30 Madison, Because they are free agents that were with the club last year -- just like Cliff Lee or Scot Shields, for example -- that have yet to sign on elsewhere or retire. |
| 15. By: Edman on 12-01-2010 11:51:01 Per MLB Rumors via Brock and Salk, Jose Lopez will be non-tendered. Not surprising. |
| 16. By: shortstop9 on 12-01-2010 11:55:21 I think they really need a good middle inf. who can play both because he will end up as the starting SS as soon as Wilson goes down. He can play 2B until Ackley is ready.Bartlett would be a perfect fit and if you trade Aardsma or League for him they will off set some of the cost. |
| 17. By: jgstecker on 12-01-2010 12:09:25 The problem with paying a guy like Bartlett for that role is that there is going to be a time when Jack Wilson is healthy and Ackley is up, which means you're spending $5 million on a utility infielder. The Mariners have too many other better ways to spend that money. Guys like Nick Punto and Jerry Hairston make a lot more sense to me. They can start at 2B or SS for extended periods of time without utterly embarrassing themselves while not costing a ton. |
| 18. By: Madison Mariner on 12-01-2010 12:42:51 Thanks for the clarification, Jason--makes sense now when I look at it, versus when I got up early in the morning and looked at it bleary-eyed. ;) I dunno, though...would bringing in someone like Punto make that much more sense than just tendering Jose Lopez and starting the season with him at 2B, and then also using Josh Wilson as the backup at 2B/SS? I can see it from both sides of the coin, I guess, and while we all know what Lopez is and that Safeco isn't good for him as a RH pull hitter, he could go back to 2B where he is comfortable, with the team being very careful to tell him that Ackley is the future, and once June comes around, the M's will try to accomodate Lopez by trying to trade him. Of course, the idea of retaining him and using him as a super-sub at 2B, 3B, and even DH might not be abhorrent, either, once Ackley is up(not that Lopez would go for that, necessarily.) If we bring in a stopgap like Punto, Hariston, or someone else, we then have the added problem of having 2 utility infielders, neither one of whom would be great full-time if(or more likely when) Jack Wilson goes down. But Bartlett wants to be a starter, so trading for him with an entrenched Jack Wilson is also a problem. Ryan Theriot would've been perfect, but evidently he'll be tendered by his new team, the Cardinals, or why else would they trade for him? Shucky darn on missing out on him. :) |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-01-2010 12:59:42 If you tender Lopez, Madison, he makes a salary in the $3 million range at minimum. Can't cut an arby-eligible player's salary by more than 20 percent if tendered an offer, so he'd be super pricey. Punto, for example, might be had for a million bucks. Big difference. Maybe wilson stays on the field for 130 games. That would help. |
| 20. By: Madison Mariner on 12-01-2010 13:44:23 Good point on that, Jason. Although I think the $3 million figure may be an overestimate? Lopez only made $2.3 million in 2010, so a 20% reduction would put him at about $1.8 million(sligtly above that, if my math is correct.) That's assuming he got a pay cut and not a raise--perhaps you were assuming the raise. :) I do agree that a non-tender is probably better, given that the M's need a low-cost player who can play 2B and SS moreso than a low-cost player who can play 2B and 3B(and even DH or play 1B). But Lopez would still be farily low-cost, assuming that they could get a salary reduction to about $2 million(a little above or below, probably). He just wouldn't be a great fit with his bat and he couldn't play SS, either, even though he came up as one originally through the M's system. Go figure--irony ends the career of Jose Lopez's time as a Mariner. :) |
| 21. By: shortstop9 on 12-01-2010 13:52:13 The problem is Wilson can't hit.He should be the backup if they want to win a few games.Nobody forced them to trade for him.So you have 3 middle inf. making 10-12 million who doesn't? |
| 22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-01-2010 15:11:26 Wilson the backup at $5 million, behind a starter making as much -- probably more -- during a year of rebuilding? Unless the new SS is more than a short-term answer, it's unwise to commit that kind of money to such a player. Your "who doesn't" approach is laughable. Who doesn't have 10-12 million committed to their middle infield in 2011? Lots of teams, including some good teams. The defending AL champs are one of them. Tampa, also a playoff team, is another. And it's not about committing certain dollars to a certain position or positions, it's about the payroll itself. When you're without tons of room, you don't double up like that. Not if you have a clue, anyway. |
| 23. By: shortstop9 on 12-01-2010 16:45:43 Bartlett has one more year left.It is a one year commitment for 4-5 million. What is your answer not if but when Wilson goes down after May? They need to keep people in the seats also and Josh and Jack will not get that done.SS/2B is a major need.We need Wilson to retire! |
| 24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-01-2010 16:50:58 shortstop9, Bartlett could easily get $6 million in arby... maybe more. So he's not likely to settle for a measley raise of less than a million bucks. He made 4 in 2010... it's 5-6 MINIMUM. And you have to give up something to get him. If you need someone to play SS if/when Wilson gets hurt, just go get Izturis. He'll be considerably cheaper than Bartlett in salary and won't cost anything in trade. |
| 25. By: shortstop9 on 12-01-2010 17:55:10 Bartlett is a winner and a leader we need that.I think Wilson will out hit Izturis. How about Cabrera for a year or Felipe Lopez? |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-01-2010 18:25:13 So you bitch and bitch about Wilson getting hurt all the time then you say your prefer him over Izturis? Make up your mind man. At least CI is somewhat reliable, and the defense isn't much difference between the two. Why is Bartlett is a winner? Because he's been on a winning team a few times? That's a total crock. So is Charles Gipson a winner, too? He was on the 2001 M's team that won 116 games and went to the LCS. Cabrera is a terrible fit, Lopez can't play short anymore, let alone hit. He seems like a one-year wonder. |
| 27. By: shortstop9 on 12-01-2010 19:11:01 I think we need to get better offensively and that won't happen with CI. Bartlett was a winner with Minnesota also.I have heard players and a couple GMs refer to him as a winner(his attitude).I'm not bitching I'm dreaming-isn't that what we do in the winter? I just think if Jack Wilson is one of the guys in the middle you need 2 other solid players there. God Charles Gibson give me a break,we are talking about the starting shortstop on really good teams here. |
| 28. By: Edman on 12-02-2010 00:47:07 shortstop9, what's with all the man-love for Bartlett? Franklin is the shortstop of the future. Why do we need to commit $5 million +, and give up minor league talent to give Seattle a offensive bump? Wilson isn't going to be a $5 million back-up, nor is Bartlett. You don't commit that much money to share time at ahort. As Jason has tried to point out, there are cheaper options available that don't cost talent to get. It's just not a smart way to spend money on a team with as many question marks as they have. |
| 29. By: StandinPat on 12-02-2010 12:38:48 Bartlett made sense when it looked like he might be non-tendered. Giving up talent AND poaying him roughly $5 mil just doesn't make for a team that isn't competing in 2011. |
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