| By Chris Crawford |  | By 01-07-2010 |
Can you believe there is only five weeks til spring training? Time flies when you have a competent general manager.
With real baseball ever so close, I decided to put together a list of what the four teams in the AL West have added and lost through free agency and trades. Obviously, this doesn't tell the whole story -- what with prospects and injuries and what have you -- but it does give you a look into what the divisions going to look like next year, and it gave me a new found appreciation of what Zduriencik has really done.
In parenthesis next to the players you will find the CHONE projections of said players WAR for 2010 if available. If not available, I went with the fan projections from fangraphs.com, and if those weren't available, I took their WAR from the previous year.
Oakland Athletics:
Coming: Coco Crisp (1.6), Jake Fox(1.7), Aaron Miles (-0.3) TOTAL: 3.0
Going: Nomar Garciaparra (0.9), Bobby Crosby (0.4), Jeff Gray (0.2) TOTAL: 1.5
Limbo: Adam Kennedy 0.8 wins
Summary: It's quiet out here, tooooooooooo quiet. The resigning of Justin Duscherer (to trade him later, book it and thank me later) is really the only thing worth mentioning. Theyre going to win games because of their pitching, but this off-season has been fairly inconspicuous.
Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim
Coming: Hideki Matsui (1.1), Fernando Rodney (0.3)TOTAL: 1.4 wins
Going: Chone Figgins (3.2), John Lackey (3.8), Kelvim Escobar (1.3) Darren Oliver (1.5 last year, it should be right around the same this year) TOTAL: 9.5 wins
Limbo: Vlad Guerrero (1.6)TOTAL: 1.6 wins
Summary: Oy vey. The Angels off-season has gone about as poorly as possible. Matsui signed for less than many perceived, but they over-paid for a closer (again) and haven't come close to replacing Lackey or Figgins at this point. Maybe they get Aroldis Chapman, but chances are Lackey>Chapman.
Texas Rangers
Coming: Rich Harden (2.9), Chris Ray (-0.2 last year), Darren Oliver (1.5) TOTAL: 2.7 wins
Going: Kevin Millwood (2.2), Marlon Byrd(2.4), Andruw Jones(1.0), Ivan Rodriguez (1.2), Eddie Guardado (-0.4) last year TOTAL: 6.4 wins
Limbo: Hank Blalock 0.5 wins
Seattle Mariners
Coming: Cliff Lee (6.0),Chone Figgins (3.2), Milton Bradley (1.8), Brandon League (1.1), Casey Kotchman (1.2)
Total: 13.3 wins
Going: Brandon Morrow(1.6), Carlos Silva(0.7), Bill Hall(-0.9), Adrian Beltre (2.7) TOTAL 4.1 wins
Limbo: Russell Branyan 1.2 wins
Summary: Wow. I defy you to find a more creative and sucessful off-season. Is there risk with the Kotchman and Morrow trades? You bet. Is this still the most sucessful off-season since the early 2000's? Absolutely. And there's still going to be a pitcher and a bat added, most likely.
Wow.
the-al-west-off-season
Comments
The following 40 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: universalguru on 01-07-2010 13:43:42 Are there any other switch-hitting OF the M's could be pursuing? I worry about the idea of a RH OF having much of an impact in our line-up. For a real impact bat that can bat right I'd really love a switch-hitter or lefty that can hit righties well. |
| 2. By: StandinPat on 01-07-2010 14:10:07 Nice write up Chris. One small quibble though. Shouldn't the "Going" players WAR be based on their actual 2009 performance, seeing how that is the realized value that each team is trying to replace? I don't predict Figgins being a 6.1 win player going forward, but that is precisely what the Angels got out of him and replacing him with a 3.1 win player would make their 2010 team 3 wins worse than their 2009 counterparts, and not a break even. |
| 3. By: chrisd on 01-07-2010 14:18:02 This is from seminaryhill posted on USSMariner today- Saunders is ready to become an outstanding LF. Fan Graphs has his UZR150 at 19.6. He had a .922 OPS in AAA, which was not a fluke. He has exceeded at every level he has played thus far in his career. It is hard to imagine that he will not do the same thing in the bigs, given the playing time. I agree, he should platoon with Bradley in LF/DH. Saunders is our answer in LF. And now that Kotchman is at 1B, we only need a #3SP. Go Z. |
| 4. By: sawman on 01-07-2010 14:20:58 chris do you think this means saunders plays left,or dose this trade for kotchmen open yhe door for a trade for luke scott or a dh/lf like him? |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-07-2010 14:23:46 Pat, I'd prefer to see what the club lost for 2010 and added for 2010, not what the player actually did in 2009. If we're going to use WAR at all, at least use the years that matter. Despite the leap in reliability for going back a year, 2009 has no value for us in looking to see which teams improved the most going forward. There's even more risky assumptions that go into that formula. |
| 6. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 01-07-2010 14:25:58 Lopez will be dealt for the starter(hopefully). So maybe two more players. 3B Figgins 2B Hudson RF Ichiro DH Bradley CF Gutierrez LF Winn 1B Kotchman C Bard SS Wilson Bench IF Tui OF Langerhans DH Griffey C Moore/Johnson Bradley 600pa/Winn 500pa/Griffey 300pa |
| 7. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-07-2010 14:27:20 JAC- It's obvious that Jack Z will likely add another bat and a SP... There are many names being thrown around, such as Guerrero, LaRoche, Branyan, Damon, etc. Have you heard anything recent on the M's search for a bat and a SP? I'm just curious to what the M's will go from here. I think the added a cheaper option at 1B with Kotchman to save money for a LF/DH and SP... What's the deal? |
| 8. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-07-2010 14:28:11 LOL I Doubt Randy Winn.. I would rather see Saunders or Nady in LF |
| 9. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 01-07-2010 14:31:32 1B: Kotchman 2B: Lopez/Hudson SS: Wilson 3B: Figgins LF: Nady/Bradley/Damon CF: Gutierrez RF: Ichiro C: Bard/Johnson DH:Guerrero/Damon/Bradley SP: Felix SP: Lee SP: Sheets/Garland/Bedard SP: Snell SP: RRS |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-07-2010 14:32:25 Guerrero was offered 1/7 by Texas today, I don't see the M's going that high in gtd money for a pure DH. I don't think LaRoche is on the radar at all, as I think Kotchman will play 1B some, even if Branyan is brought back. At this point I think it's Branyan, Thome or Dye, and I don't think Dye wants to play here. For those who don't think another DH fits here, remember Griffey's role is not of a 4-5 day a week player, and that neither Branyan, Kotchman nor Thome are everyday guys, either. And if Bradley is playing a good portion of his time in LF -- which he will barring injury -- the DH spot is not even half filled right now. |
| 11. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 01-07-2010 14:40:24 Jason, I've thought all along Bradley was brought in to be everday LF. But if that is true doesn't it make a Griffey/Sweeeney platoon situation the most likely. |
| 12. By: Chris Crawford on 01-07-2010 14:43:41 Ya that was my logic for it. By losing Figgins, the Angels more than likely lost the opportunity of 3 wins. But I do see where youre coming from, Pat. |
| 13. By: Mackie on 01-07-2010 14:45:29 Thanks to Chris for the analysis and to everyone else for the helpful comments. I think Thome probably has a good year or two left as a DH. I wouldn't mind seeing him crushing some HRs for Seattle this season. A DH set-up of Thome (or Branyan)/Griffey/Bradley would be fine. And Saunders probably IS ready to be an everyday LF. I think the team is one more good hitter and one more decent SP away from being a real playoff contender. Could they do something like sign Orlando Hudson and then trade for Aaron Harang? How would that affect the overall outlook? Would Hudson be enough of an offensive and defensive upgrade over Lopez that the team wouldn't miss the power Lopez offers? Whatever happens between now and the beginning of the season, it seems there is a lot of cause for optimism with the Mariners in 2010. |
| 14. By: StandinPat on 01-07-2010 15:17:05 Jason, Chris, I guess it just depends on how you at it. From a true talent stand point, yes the Angels are losing a 3 win player in Figgins. But if we look at the 12 win gap separating the two teams at the end of 2009, then they lost 6 of those 12 wins when Figgins left. I was just viewing things more in terms of the gains we've made over the performances we actually received last year. Theoretically Figgns isn't a substantial improvement over Beltre at 3B, but we aren't replacing "Beltre," we are replacing a battered Beltre/Hannahan/Woodward combo, which was closer to a 2 win level, with Figgins(3.2). |
| 15. By: studentofthegame on 01-07-2010 15:20:18 Who is the most realistic starting pitcher the M's are gonna go after? I am not talking about pipe dreams here ( I mean we do have Cliff Lee already). Does anybody have a legitimate answer? Who is the most realistic bat the M's could be pursuing? Once again put the pipe down and forget Gonzalez. Could it be a left fielder? Or is it more likely a solid DH? 1B? I am really excited to see who we take to camp but there are a few question marks that I am dying to solve! Thanks all. |
| 16. By: marinerdan on 01-07-2010 16:10:41 What about Aubrey Huff? He has played in the OF, not a bad LF or 3B according to his UZR. He didn't have a great year last year with but his 2008 was pretty good. He isn't young but I think he would fit better than Branyan, since he can play multiple positions. |
| 17. By: Edman on 01-07-2010 16:12:37 If Lopez could have been dealt, he probably would have been by now. I just don't see him moving at this point, especially with the better FA secondbaseman that remain unsigned. IMY, they aren't going to give him away, and take on a more expensive free agent. |
| 18. By: Edman on 01-07-2010 16:14:19 I'm putting my money on Branyan being back. He'll eventually agree it's the best he's gonna do. |
| 19. By: FWBrodie on 01-07-2010 16:25:33 What about Ryan Garko? He mashes against lefties. In that scenario you still end up having Junior, Kotchman, or Langerhans playing aginst left handers every time (unless Tui makes the team) but with Garko and Bradley in the middle of the order you have quite a bit of clout. I'd think Garko would be pretty cheap all things considered. |
| 20. By: Edman on 01-07-2010 16:45:09 Garko's a candidate for a minor league invite kinda player. Probably not a guy Jack would likely offer more than a chance to make the club. A good insurance policy, if nothing else. |
| 21. By: DMac33 on 01-07-2010 16:52:29 Jason: What's the most that you could see the Mariners paying for filling up the DH position? The reason I say that is that just b/c Vlad has been offered 1 yr @ $7MM by Texas doesn't mean that he's going to take a money grab. My understanding of Vlad is that he definitely is someone that likes to be around fellow Latin players and I definitely think is someone that wants a chance to play for a ring sooner than later. I'm not sure that Texas offers the chance to play for the ring (way too many pitching questions to me) and not enough of a latin contingent. Is it viable that a similar contract could be offered up, or perhaps a more incentive laden deal derived, that could make the deal done? I'm not going to lie, I don't really like the idea of a Thome signing as that essentially to me means that you have 2 Griffey's on the roster. |
| 22. By: JohnMcD on 01-07-2010 17:01:43 Great write up as always, finally became a year suscriber and said heck to the month to month paying. Two things: 1. I thought the Rangers didn't have that much money to spend because of the status of ownership? Or did they free up a ton of money with trading Millwood, even though I thought they used that Money to sign Harden? 2. What about Jorge Cantu? He can play 3rd and 1st and he is a right handed bat. I would be interested to hear Jason, Chris, or anyone elses take on it....Not saying we should get him, but just thought I would ask... |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-07-2010 17:07:17 John, Now that the ownership scenario is a little clearer, they do have a little cash to throw around. Not a lot, however, and remember, a few guys came off the books, and like you mentioned, they did save a little cash from the Millwood-Ray swap-Harden signing. Dmac33, Thome is unlikely anyway. As for the money? I'd say $5 mil gtd, give or take. |
| 24. By: DMac33 on 01-07-2010 17:22:36 Thanks Jason ... Not sure that $5MM for a year is enough if a $7MM package is on the table. However, if I recall right, the Angels weren't offering Vlad the most money when he signed his free agent contract with the Angels. I'd imagine that won't be his most important consideration this time around either. It'll be interesting to see how they fill out the remaining portion of this lineup. They do need a few more sticks with some power - and that power needs to be both in the line drive, gap-type power, as well as clear the bases type power. |
| 25. By: StandinPat on 01-07-2010 17:55:41 I'm not sure why Vlad would take less money, for likely less playing time, to have half his games in a park that would suppress rather than inflate his numbers. Vlad's most likely gonna be on a 1yr deal no matter where he goes, so it makes the most sense for him to go to a place that will increase his value for 2011. The playing for a ring theory is nice, but I'm not sure Seattle is quite viewed as that kind of team in 2010. |
| 26. By: DMac33 on 01-07-2010 17:59:33 Pat: They'd be more of that team than Texas is ... Vlad's most likely playing for 1-2 year contracts at this point going forward as a DH. Unless he's been highly wasteful with his money, the contract he signed with the Angels is enough for him to be comfortable with long-term. All I was saying was that money wasn't the #1 factor with Vlad when he signed with the Angels - there is no guarantee that it will be the factor with him going forward. Different people do have different priorities. |
| 27. By: StandinPat on 01-07-2010 18:15:50 "They'd be more of that team than Texas is ..." But you don't know that Vlad necessarily feels that way? Does he value pitching and defense the same way some of us do? I have no idea who Vlad feels is closer to getting a ring, and I'm not willing to just assume he feels Seattle is. Sure, the money might not be a factor to him, again we don't actually know for sure. "not enough of a latin contingent" Texas has more Latin players than Seattle. Not saying it isn't possible, just not probably, and probably not the best fit on top of that. |
| 28. By: pwhit44 on 01-08-2010 00:17:27 It's amazing how quickly and easily I fall in love with a new Mariner. Watched a bit of the press conference, and I already like Casey, and if he's as good as we think on defense, and fulfills his potential at age 27, this is going to be a fun team to watch (as if it weren't already going to be). His profile page in ESPN has him listed at 5 years experience. Is this truly his last year of arbitration, or do we have under club control for two years? |
| 29. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-08-2010 00:38:13 Kotchman has played parts of five years but has two more years until free agency. |
| 30. By: MarinersArmy on 01-08-2010 00:47:20 Jason, How much do you think Casey will make this year and how much do you think the team has left in their payroll? PS - I second that vote on somehow acquiring Harang! A rotation of Felix/Lee/Harang/RRS/Snell makes me drool... |
| 31. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-08-2010 02:38:39 Since Kotchman made just under 2.9 a year ago, I think somewhere between 3.5 and 4 million is a reasonable expectation. This is why the cash in the trade has not been announced, apparently. Because they don't know what Kotchman will make just yet. |
| 32. By: mymrbig on 01-08-2010 10:45:07 I'm not as sold on Harang as others seem to be, but it really comes down to money. Harang has showed a marked decrease in abilities from his peak in 2006-07. Looking at some of his pitch-values on fangraphs, his slider has gone from a plus pitch to a below-average pitch (coordinating with a 2 mph decrease in slider velocity) while his fastball has always been roughly average. This is backed up by his out-of-zone contract rate, which has increased 10-15% since his peak. Nothing in his results from 2009 suggest a return to his peak. He would benefit some moving to Safeco, especially since he is a flyball pitcher. But that move would be somewhat offset by moving to the AL. I guess he has a non-zero chance of re-discovering his slider and becoming 2006-07 Harang again, but at $12.5 M in 2011 and $12.75 M in 2011 (or $2 M buyout), he is too expensive for his current level of results, plus the Reds would presumably want at least a mildly interesting prospect thrown in. So unless the Reds are willing to chip in a big chunk of change, or don't require a decent prospect, I'm not interested. Which makes me sad, because the past month or so I thought Harang was a good target, before looking at his numbers. I don't think he'd be a disaster and I think he'd be an upgrade at the #3 slot, but I don't think it would be worth what it would cost to get him. |
| 33. By: FatBat on 01-08-2010 12:38:41 So I just watched the Kotchman news conference. Not bad considering he has only been a Mariner for 10 seconds. My one question to all of you is...Why hasnt Cliff Lee been introduced? What kind of message does that send? What does that imply? |
| 34. By: JohnMcD on 01-08-2010 12:54:49 I was wondering the same thing FatBat. I mean Cliff's hunting trip can't last this long can it? |
| 35. By: studentofthegame on 01-08-2010 13:04:43 You make a good point. Figgins made it here from Florida. |
| 36. By: FelixElRey on 01-08-2010 13:34:48 Well, Kotchman now has a better chance of starting, Figgins chose to be here, and Cliff Lee got blindsided and taken from a world series team. Hopefully he isn't miserable being a Mariner! |
| 37. By: MarinersArmy on 01-08-2010 13:53:19 mymrbig, I totally agree. By no means, would I want Harang and take on his full salary. We'd definitely have to take him at a discount and I've heard that CIN is trying to free up some payroll. So if they're willing to pay 5-6 million and we throw them some lesser significant prospect(s), then I'm interested. He may have regressed a bit, but I believe he comes back with pitching half his games at Safeco (the opposite of Great American!) and he's throwing in the #3 hole (less pressure). You're right though, we'd have to acquire him under the right scenario... |
| 38. By: safecochatter on 01-08-2010 14:12:50 i thought about how cliff lee's silence speaks volumes. but hey, pissed off cliff lee works fine too.. |
| 39. By: FatBat on 01-08-2010 14:17:03 Not to say anything bad about Lee. I was just wondering how long that trip actualy is taking. Weird. Anyway I know once he starts playing with our guy's I'm sure he will be happy here. By the way guys have any of you bought your Sportingnews Fantasy Mag yet? One crazy Mock draft! Ichiro Felix 3rd round! Figgins 5th! Lee 6th! not Bad. Man I'm starting to get that Baseball Ich! |
| 40. By: Edman on 01-08-2010 15:17:26 I feel sorry for Cliff Lee. I think he wanted to return to the Phillies, but his agent tried to play hardball. Someone's not telling the whole truth, because Lee's agent, even in public statements, didn't present the Phillies with any level of comfort that a deal could be done. I also think the Phillies were more sold on Halladay, even back before Lee was acquired. I honestly don't know how much better they got after all this, but I don't think it was a dramatic change. Halladay was a sure thing, Lee wasn't. And, Lee's agent failed to give the Phillies any level of comfort that a deal could be made. Kinda ironic, in a way. Some saw Bedard as aloof. It appears the Lee isn't the most user-friendly option, either. As long as he wins, I don't really care. |
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