| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 07-13-2010 |
I went to Anaheim simply hoping to see players I hadn't seen before, poke at the brains of a few scouts in attendance and build a reference point for some of the top prospects in baseball that I'd otherwise not see in my treks to the minor leagues on the west coast.
Mission accomplished.
I saw more plus arms than I'd ever seen in one ballpark this side of the big-league all-star game, and despite the US Team dominating on the scoreboard, we may have seen future MVPs and Cy Young Award winners Sunday.
Here are the things that stuck out for me most.
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Like I said on the podcast Monday night, Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown is really good, but don't take my word for it because I'd tell you he's still raw and unpolished and a big, giant risk... Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran has a chance to be really, really good, and actually has similar present stuff as Michael Pineda, but with a better changeup... Perhaps my two favorite players of the day were right-handers Jeremy Hellickson of Tampa Bay and Jordan Lyles of the Houston Astros. Hellickson was his usual self, relentlessly attacking the zone with a 91-93 mph fastball with late life and some sink and a big-time changeup that I wanted to see him throw three or four times in a row. He would certainly be an immediate upgrade for the Rays rotation right now and we might see them make the move, pushing Wade Davis to the bullpen. Lyles was was a pleasant surprise -- he's typically thought to be a future No. 3 with slightly above-average stuff -- but his command and mechanics were terrific Sunday and he sat in the low-90s with a good changeup and a hard, sharp slider that Keith Law thought might actually be a cutter. He also showed a curveball, but I didn't see it -- that must have been one of the 20 or so pitches I missed while live-blogging for ESPN. Lyle, though, looked like a potential No. 1 for me.
Zack Wheeler, the Giants first-round pick a year ago, looked really good and against more experienced hitters, and fellow prep draftee Shelby Miller looked good in the short time he spent on the mound... Angels catching prospect Hank Conger hit the three-run bomb and while he has some work to do behind the plate, he's big-league ready as a left-handed hitter... Mike Trout is ridiculously good, and if the 2009 draft were held today he'd probably be the No. 3 overall pick... Trout recorded the fastest time Law has ever recorded a right-handed hitter from home to first, tying the mark set by Cal State Fullerton's Gary Brown, but the Angels outfielder also offers plus power potential and an above-average hit tool, making him the No. 2 overall prospect in the game. Ridiculous.
Both Royals reps looked good and I overheard a scout say he thought Eric Hosmer was the best first base prospect in the minors, though I'd have to go with Marlins prospect Logan Morrison... Mike Moustakas looked better Sunday than he did in the Fall League, cleaning up the entire swing process from load to hip rotation. He may not stick at third base but I think he's a better version of Billy Butler, and a left-handed one at that.
Dee Gordon, the Dodgers top prospect, is really fast and has plus range at shortstop, but Alex Liddi absolutely cannot play third. As he's getting bigger and stronger he's losing range and flexibility and has never had great hands. I'd move him to right field right now, slide Triunfel to third at West Tennessee and challenge Carlos Peguero in Triple-A Tacoma. Peguero put a couple good swings together in the game, but both were out over the plate and his problems are with breaking stuff out of the zone and hard stuff on the inner third of the plate.
Lawrie's BP was impressive, but I don't necessarily buy that he's a second baseman yet. He'll hit enough to warrant a job at third or in a corner outfield spot, however... I liked what I saw in Austin Romine and I hope the Yankees send him to the Fall League in October. He might be on the brink of a big-league call-up a year from now and is probably the heir apparent to Jorge Posada... I still don't like Brett Jackson, big surprise, and I still think Grant Green was overdrafted, too, but he probably stays at shortstop from what I saw Sunday.
Nationals shortstop Danny Espinosa isn't a regular due to below-average plate skills and a lack of a plus tool... Texas right-hander Tanner Scheppers hit 99mph on the radar gun -- that was fun.
I wish the Twins would have sent Aaron Hicks -- he belongs among the top 25-30 prospects in baseball -- and a couple of Wilmers, Flores of the Mets and Font of the Rangers are two more I think should have been there but weren't.
Looking ahead to the game next year, maybe Seattle has a new representative or two in Nick Franklin, Ackley, Pineda or even Carlos Triunfel. Ackley and Pineda may be deemed ineligible, however, since there's a chance they are in the big leagues by the time July rolls around.
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Comments
The following 21 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: kevinorris on 07-13-2010 21:27:44 Great story. I'm curious to know what you like about Morrison to put higher stock in him compared to Hosmer. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-13-2010 21:32:52 There's a little better track record to believe in with Morrison, though he's still learning to get loft and leverage so his strength and bat speed will turn into home run power. But Hosmer hasn't hit for tons of power, either, so I'll take the guy closer to the big leagues. Morrison is ready now, Hosmer is at least a year and a half away, if not two full years. The one worry with Morrison is the wrist injury he suffered a year ago. if it's not chronic, no concern, but we'll have to wait and see because wrists problems don't bode well for power. Hosmer may have a bit more upside and is a better defender, so in a year I might prefer Hosmer, but give me the $425,000 league average first baseman right now -- that's what Morrison is if the Marlins called him up and moved Sanchez -- versus the risk that Hosmer doesn't continue to develop. |
| 3. By: bodhizefa on 07-14-2010 07:53:04 Better player in 5 years: Mike Trout or Dustin Ackley? I still like Ackley an awful lot, but it irks me a bit to know that our division rival somehow got an equivalent (or better) talent so many picks beyond our's and for less money to boot. |
| 4. By: dawgncarolina on 07-14-2010 08:13:10 I'm guessing Ackley will be the better talent in 5 years, but Trout will be better in 8. We all feel the same way about the Angels getting the better value (and probably better talent) so much lower, but it was pure luck. Had the picks been reversed they would have taken Ackley at 2, as well. |
| 5. By: Slack on 07-14-2010 09:35:59 The best part of the futures game for me was all the velocity from the pitchers. It was incredible. I'm hoping that Tyler Matzek will appear in next years futures game. |
| 6. By: Jerry on 07-14-2010 11:43:12 RE #3: The worst part is that, if the M's had decided against signing Josh Fields, they would have had the 21st pick in the draft. Trout went #24. I remember hearing that the M's were interested in Trout and were considering him as an option with one of their extra picks. If the M's hadn't signed Fields, they could have had Ackley AND Trout. That hurts. |
| 7. By: Edman on 07-14-2010 11:43:22 bodhizefa, if that irks you, then every draft with irk you. Drafting is not a perfect science. And I agree with dawg, it was as much luck, as anything else. Some draftees don't shine until they get into organized ball. If they play in weak baseball leagues, they get overlooked. Scouts are paid to find these kind of gems. Scouting the well known players is much easier. There's data everywhere. It's finding some kid in the middle of Cornfield, Nebraska that is where scouting comes in. Good scouts recognize ability, not statistics. Imagine going to a daycare, and trying to pick out which ones will be successful as adults, and which won't. Some are obvious, many are not. I find zero value in fretting over what happened. These things will happen again and again. I would bet that McNamara goes through every draft and tries to figure out how team A recognized someone that his scouts didn't. And really, that's all you can ask. Learn from success, and try to eliminate failure. |
| 8. By: Edman on 07-14-2010 11:48:56 Jerry, you assume that the M's would have picked Trout. Why didn't any of the other 15 or so teams recognize his value? Seattle could have picked from a selection of many players over the years. There is absolutely no value in playing the "Could have" game. They didn't. And there's no guarantee had they not signed Fields, that Trout would have gone to Seattle. And, as little as comes out from McNamara's group, it's doubtful that anyone would know what they would have done with that pick, if they had it. I'm sure there would have been several possible selections with that pick, including Trout. |
| 9. By: acqb1424 on 07-14-2010 12:25:07 Through their facebook page 710 ESPN is reporting that Ackley, Paredes and Varvaro just got promoted to Tacoma. Jason, do you think this is a good move for Ackley? |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-14-2010 12:29:52 It is, offensively. We'll post about that in a few minutes. |
| 11. By: acqb1424 on 07-14-2010 12:38:46 Awesome! Thanks Jason, can't wait to see Ackley in Tacoma! |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-14-2010 12:46:02 ACQ, If yer at the game july 23, come say hi. |
| 13. By: dawgncarolina on 07-14-2010 12:51:42 The Fields things is a totally different story, Jerry. Yes, if the M's had not signed Fields they would have had an extra pick, but that extra pick wouldn't be protected if they didn't sign the player drafted there, so the M's likely would have taken someone with no signability concerns (especially considering how much they were spending with the #2 pick and two other first rounders). Yes, we can speculate they could have just paid what they paid Fields, but most likely that money would have been spread amongst the three lower first round picks. In other words, it's not likely they would have taken a high risk, high reward kid like Trout at that spot. That said, taking Fields was a disaster as I said at the time, and signing him was just as foolish (one of the few things I vehemently disagreed with Z about). And Fields has turned out worse than even I expected. |
| 14. By: rjfrik on 07-14-2010 13:05:31 Yeah I read a lot of reports that if Trout would of fallen to the M's second 1st round pick they would of taken him, but he didn't, so nothing that can be done on that one. It's not like he fell to them and they passed on him and now are feeling the pain. He wasn't available and that is that. Great player though and a great kid |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-14-2010 13:10:15 Trout wouldn't have been the pick even if he lasted to 27 where they took Franklin. Many teams missed on Trout -- but like I said in the podcast, it's tough to scout the northern states well, because you have to base it on tool more than anything and that makes it all the more risky. |
| 16. By: Edman on 07-14-2010 13:19:43 #13, I wouldn't at all call Fields a disaster. He has to improve his command of the strikezone, but he's could have easily been promoted, instead of Varvaro. He's still a good reliever prospect, with the possibility to be a closer, though unless he shows more control, he's probably a set-up man at best. The loss of nearly a year of pro-ball experience hurt him. Few people take into the consideration the potential impact of not getting a kid into the minors as soon as possible. Boras does his pitching clients no service holding them out. Pitchers generally suffer the worse when they're away from the game for too long. If Fields is ready sometime next season, considering the current bullpen, he could be very useful. |
| 17. By: dawgncarolina on 07-14-2010 13:42:36 Fields is an absolute disaster. The only argument for taking him at the time was "he'll be the quickest to the majors". You don't waste first round picks on college closers, and Fields is living proof of why. The upside of a college closer is limited while the floor is not nearly as high as people think. College closers are mid-risk, low reward. He may still have some use, but it won't be anything close to what we could have gotten at that spot. It was a terrible decision at the time which has only been confounded by everything that's happened since. |
| 18. By: acqb1424 on 07-14-2010 14:04:48 Jason, I will do that. I might be there..want to get some Ackley stuff signed. Where are you usually at? |
| 19. By: Edman on 07-14-2010 14:17:56 No, Fields the pitcher, is not an absolute disaster. You can dispute his selection, and many do. But, once he's drafted and signed, his value to the organization is irrelevant based on where he was drafted. Again.....could have. There's no guarantee that had the M's taken the draft pick instead, that it would have faired any better, it would have just been different. Many first round draft picks never make it to the bigs. They just have a higher probability. Separate actual value from where he was drafted. He has value to the organization as a relief pitcher. Many first round picks are nothing more than useful, and he may be one. He still has the potential to be a very good reliever. |
| 20. By: dawgncarolina on 07-14-2010 15:31:23 He has some value, in the same way that Lueke has value, I agree with you on that. Taking him in the first round was a terrible, terrible idea. Selecting him and signing him were both disasterous moves. |
| 21. By: Edman on 07-14-2010 17:33:44 Disasterous moves? Isn't that a little over-stating it? Ill advised, perhaps. But, the franchise doesn't hinge on this one move. It suggests that your opinion of Fields is influenced by when he was drafted. Once any kid gets into the organization, draft position is meaningless. Value is assessed by their value to the major league club. It doesn't really matter, because he was drafted on Bavasi's watch. I'm sure Jack evaluated the cost both in talent and financial impact, before he agreed to sign him. |
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