| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-16-2008 |
If you asked scouts and front office executives around Major League Baseball which organizations are currently serving as the model franchises for other clubs looking to build their rosters and give themselves the best chance to win and sustain it, most would talk about the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Boston Red Sox - all playoff teams in 2008.The Rays drafted wisely - meaning they did not pass up the best talents at the top of the draft to save money - put those players on the right path to development and remained patient with them, while occasionally dabbling in the trade and free agent markets for the right additions.
The Red Sox did very much the same, but also went out and flexed their money muscles to acquire and retain some of the better talent in baseball, such as Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, Josh Beckett and J.D. Drew.
But the Sox also relied heavily on their farm system, including center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, shortstop Jed Lowrie, closer Jonathan Papelbon and American League MVP Dustin Pedroia at second base.
But it's my opinion that neither they, nor the Brewers, should be the blueprint for the Seattle Mariners. I don't believe the club should jettison all the pricey veterans, focus on the draft and player development, punting the next two or even three seasons, and knock payroll off by 30-50 percent as they prepare for future free agent and trade acquisitions.
There's no reason for it, and the San Francisco Giants are proof of that, which is why I think the Giants should be the blueprint.
Some of you are wondering why, since San Francisco went 72-90 in 2008, finishing fourth in the National League West, ahead of only the pathetic San Diego Padres.
I'll tell you why.
Here's what the Giants have to work with going forward:
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Tim Alderson
Madison Bumgarner
Buster Posey
Angel Villalona
Conor Gillaspie
Nick Noonan
Brian Wilson
Jeremy Affeldt
Pablo Sandoval
Jonathan Sanchez
Alex Hinshaw
And despite the ridiculous contract handed to Barry Zito two years ago, they do have payroll flexibility that will allow them to add key pieces as they continue to develop their young players.
They also have big-league contributors such as Emmanuel Burriss at second and short, solid young outfielder Fred Lewis, and another high draft pick in the 2009 draft.
The Giants are a dangerous, dangerous ballclub, starting right now, and it's all because they made good decisions with amateur talent.
The most amazing thing about all of the above is that they acquired Posey, Lincecum, Gillaspie, Noonan, Bumgarner, Alderson, Villalona, Affeldt, Burriss and athletic outfield prospect Wendell Fairley since the 2006 draft.
In two season plus a month of an offseason, the Giants have transformed their organization from one of the laughing stocks of baseball to one that boasts one of the top three or four farm systems in the game and a collection of young talent that only the Rays can match.
Furthermore, the Giants now have one of, if not the brightest future of any club in baseball, considering the fact that they will, unlike Tampa Bay, spend money ($90 million payrolls in 2006 and 2007 before dropping to $76 in 2008) and do not have the problems attracting and properly developing pitching as do the Texas Rangers, who probably have the best collection of minor league prospects in the game.
Seattle has money to spend, and we all know they are willing to spend it. The problem has been spending it wisely, and while that will depend on Jack Zduriencik and company's ability to properly evaluate not only the talent at the big-league level, but the free market every winter as well. But the Giants are showing the Mariners how you can rebuild on the run, yet still do in intelligently with an eye toward a bright future.
Granted, the Zito contract was just plain preposterous, and the deal they gave Aaron Rowand last winter wasn't wise, either - and I will argue against many that claim the Edgar Renteria signing was a smart one - but the Giants are valuing certain skills properly.
I'm not proposing that the M's copy the Giants' every move - since their moves tell me that even though they value defense and on-base percentage, the same moves also suggest that they don't know how to identify it. Rowand being an obvious example.
But more than any other club in the game, San Francisco is showing Seattle how a mid-to-large market team can rebuild around young players without punting multiple seasons.
After saying goodbye to Barry Bonds following the 2007 campaign, the Giants kinda-sorta gave away 2008. But that was it. They are clearly attacking a vulnerable NL West this offseason and if things fall their way somewhat, they could contend with their current roster.
And they aren't done building for '09 yet.
Zduriencik is showing us, however, that he has a plan, and it's clearly not about even punting away 2009, yet there aren't signs that he'll be after a bunch of expensive veterans to fill holes, which bodes well for the ensuing seasons.
A few years ago I said things such as "my goodness they are horrible, and with no end in sight," when asked about the Giants.
But after last June's draft and this year's minor league season, that can't be said anymore, not of the Giants' future anyway.
So while Tampa, Milwaukee and Boston do a lot of things right, the Giants are the best example to M's fans that things can turn around quickly without spending hundreds of millions of dollars on free agents and ignoring the farm system in favor of proven veterans.
the-blueprint
Comments
The following 70 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Uncle Al on 12-16-2008 11:44:45 Jason Wouldn't you say that Zduriencik has pretty much done the same thing as the Giants so far. I've had a few days to think through the Putz trade and the Rule 5 draft and Zduriencik is even smarter than I thought he was. They have Washburn, Batista, Chavez, Bedard, Balentien, Beltre, Heilman, and Johnson who are all available for trades this year. Maybe they need a big LH bat replacing Balentien in LF and a big LH bat for DH this year. They've spent $105M so far and could get by with just adding a DH. I believe we will see more trades. Beltre and Bedard (if he pitches well) can be moved by the trade deadline or we can pick up draft picks by offering them contracts next year. But you really need to look at 2010 to see the brilliance of all this. They only have $60M spent so far and need 1B, DH, 3B, 4th OF'er, SP, and maybe a Closer. Carp starts at 1B, Branyan can go to DH, Tuiasosopo goes to 3B as worst case, Saunders is the 4th OF'er, and all of this costs you about $3M more. You've got $63M spent and only need to add in the cost of Heilman who is a SP and Arbitration eligible. You can still resign Chavez if Saunders isn't ready and still have a shot at resigning Bedard as a SP if you want him. They also have Halman, Raben, and Wilson who could be ready in the OF or be used at DH. For once this doesn't look like a total disaster. Right now it's a bit much to expect the M's to contend in 2009 because there is so much shit to clean up but 2009 doesn't have to be written off and 2010 could be the start of something good with all the resources they're going to have. They'll have a few back of the rotation pitchers ready for the 2011 season and all kinds of help coming from the farm system starting in 2012. Zduriencik won't make any trades unless they are geared towards the future and won't want to give up prospects. They also have 5 draft picks in the first 50 picks this June. This is what makes this year so interesting because trades he makes now will influence the future. This is fun. Go Jack Go!! |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2008 11:48:48 It's too early to say that. What the Giants did took three years because it was a three-year job. |
| 3. By: littlelinny6 on 12-16-2008 14:03:38 Jason, Given what we have now on the roster and assuming no one like Beltre or Washburn gets moved before the season starts, how do you see our 25 man roster? Does Reegie Corona replace WFB? Is Heilman the closer?? Starting pitching wise I would love to see: 1. Felix 2. Bedard 3. Morrow 4. RRS/Washedup 5. Silva I don't think you can get Silva out of the rotation. Put either RRS or Washedup as mop up man in the pen. Make Heilman the closer and Batista a setup man or vice versa. Batista still throws hard and when his stuff is starting to deteriorate the bullpen is a great place to go where you only have to get out 3-5 hitters or so. |
| 4. By: PositivePaul on 12-16-2008 14:09:41 Wow, talk about thinking outside of the box... While the Giants may be primed to move forward, I wonder if a lot of their chances of divisional success may come because the Dodgers, Rockies, and even the D-Backs have taken some steps backwards. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2008 14:21:49 But isn't that a similar division to what the M's have in front of them? Minus a team, of course, but Texas is like the LAD of the AL, Oakland is kind of like the Colorado, and the Angels are kind of like the Arizona, in terms of money, farm systems, etc. littlelinny6, I'm going to put up a projected roster today... will that work? |
| 6. By: littlelinny6 on 12-16-2008 14:29:16 sounds good. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2008 15:02:03 Here we go. Projected 25-man Roster This is not how I would construct the roster or how I think it will end up, but rather how I think it would end up should the deadline for finalizing the roster be today. |
| 8. By: littlelinny6 on 12-16-2008 15:12:17 That roster seems about right to me. The bullpen seems a bit crowded but I don't know. isn't Jimenez out of options?? I thought that could make a difference in the 25 man roster. Also, it seems Corona can spell 2b and SS and Chavez can play all OF positions. However, who plays 3B if Beltre gets hurt or needs a day off? I would assume Branyan because at least he has played there (even though he supposedly is not very good at the corner). |
| 9. By: FatBat on 12-16-2008 15:17:16 No way Jimenez isnt, on this team opening day! His stuff is electic. |
| 10. By: stickball on 12-16-2008 15:18:44 Jason, I like your roster. I have a couple differences of opinion - Jimenez should be on the roster instead of Vargas. If Shelton is on the roster they don't need a third catcher, Johnson. |
| 11. By: FatBat on 12-16-2008 15:19:58 I mean Electric |
| 12. By: littlelinny6 on 12-16-2008 15:23:08 stickball, I think they need Johnson as a 3rd catcher because if Johjima catches and Clement DH's and one gets hurt, what do you do? That is where Johnson comes in. |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2008 15:27:52 The third catcher, Johnson, is there because Clement will be DH'ing some. When you do that, you're stuck with one catcher. And don't tell me Shelton can catch, because he really can't, and if he started that game at first and Branyan at third, Wak could have issues. Plus, the M's are certainly going to want to showcase Johnson. They've come relatively close to trading him more than once this winter. Considering the other options - Mike Morse, Bryan LaHair, Tug Hulett, rushing Saunders or Halman... carrying Johnson makes more sense. Vargas and Jimenez are probably interchangeable, but Jimenez has options left and is NOT a good left-on-left option. He was good versus LHB in the minors, but gets torched in the bigs. His stuff isn't conducive to getting lefties out consistently. But Vargas, even though he's better suited stuff wise, has his own issues. So sure, they are interchangeable, as are Lugo and Justin Thomas, though Lugo may get a longer leash as a Rule 5 guy. |
| 14. By: Blowgun7 on 12-16-2008 15:30:48 I would assume Lugo and Vargas make the squad because of the rule 5 requirements, and the fact Vargas is out of options.. I assume Thomas and Jimenez can start in AAA |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2008 15:31:09 To further answer linny's question... I think Heilman is going to be given the chance to start, but whether there is a spot for him or not depends on whether Washburn is dealt. Hernandez, Bedard, Silva, Morrow and RRS are the best five guys, and even RRS would get pushed into the pen with Washburn in town. There's a chance Heilman and Rowland-Smith "share" the fifth spot, too. I'd flat out tell him he's in the pen until further notice, and if he doesn't like it, quit. Players don't get to tell clubs where they are going to play, which is why I can't stand Ichiro - don't get me started. I would not name a closer. what's the point of that? |
| 16. By: conorglassey on 12-16-2008 15:32:40 Looking on the bright side, the M's will certainly be able to compete with that Giants' core come July. If you look at that list, three of the guys you listed all came from the Giants' draft last year, where they had 6 picks in the top 51—-a pretty similar situation to the M's this year. |
| 17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2008 15:35:24 Unfortunatelty, Conor, the Mariners don't have their own versions of Alderson or Bumgarner. Aumont is an enormous question mark next to those two, and he's the best Seattle has. Tillman woulda been one. But you're right, and that's part of the point I'm making here. It doesn't have to take two or three years to completely zip it around. Not with good decisions coming one after another. |
| 18. By: littlelinny6 on 12-16-2008 15:41:08 I agree with your sentiments about Ichiro Jason. However, I think Gutierrez will play a better defensive CF than Ichiro so leaving him in RF doesn't upset me anymore. I also got to say too many people are assuming Morrow goes straight to the pen, why?? Morrow has too good of stuff and too much potential to sit in the pen, especially on the M's who will most likely not be that competitive next year. Plus Heilman throws basically 2 pitches, a fastball and changeup and his other pitches sucks. There is a guy by the name of Trevor Hoffman who made a HOF career out of those two pitches so Heilman should be the closer or at least in the bullpen. The big problem to me is what to do with the Wasburn/Batista mess. Could we just agree to pay like half of Washedup's salary and get a low level A prospect?? I would much rather have RRS in the rotation. don't even get me started on Batista--every half inning takes 30 minutes between his walks, step offs, etc. Washburn would be a great long relief man. He throws batting practice with his 90% fastballs. I think in the end Dr. Z has a plan and I hope Wakamatsu is not going to play people solely on salary. |
| 19. By: littlelinny6 on 12-16-2008 15:44:43 Also naming the closer makes no difference I have to agree. Getting three outs with a 3 run lead is no big deal. KRod is not a good reliever but is getting paid like a great one because he inflated save total. George Sherill pitched much worse last year than in 2007 with the M's because he was exposed more and had to face more hitters. Yet somehow because he racked up some saves he was an All-Star and a great reliever in some peoples eyes. Maybe the GMs that think Sherril is now great will take Yuni in a trade because "he is a great defender"--ahha. |
| 20. By: FatBat on 12-16-2008 15:55:18 Washburn and Batista is a mess, and I don't think there is much of a market for washburn. Batista there is none. But another mess for me is Kenji? Inflated contract and I we should be starting Rob Johnson at catcher this year because like Jason said you have to play the guy to get his value up. Platoon last year of Kenji, Burke and Clement was a horrable! |
| 21. By: Jerry on 12-16-2008 16:04:29 Jason, I gotta respectfully disagree with you. I think the Giants are one of the worst run franchises in baseball. Their main issue is a complete and total misunderstanding of how to evaluate big league talent and spend in free agency. This is a team that gave Barry Zito 7 years/$126M Aaron Rowand 5 years/$60M in the past few years. They have done better with the addition of Affeldt, but they are still spending a lot of money on relievers and overrated vets (Renteria). I don't think Sabean has become a good GM. I just think he has gotten a bit lucky and benefited from extra draft picks. They have improved in player development only recently, after years of punting draft picks and explicitly arguing that drafting well wasn't that important. Their impressive group of players now is due to a lot of extra picks in the past two drafts, even though they continued to give up picks in each draft. Its hard to not build a decent system with 10 first round draft picks in the last three drafts. This is a lot of first rounders. But, again, they keep losing picks every year by mediocre to bad free agent signings. There is also a good bit of luck there. Nobody would have guessed that Lincecum would be this good this fast, and Bumgarner and Alderson have both been pleasant surprises. At least a bit of that is just luck. If your point in emulating the Giants is that lots of draft picks are the way forward, then I would agree. But there are better clubs out there to emulate, particularly the Red Sox, who draft well, bring in a lot of international talent, AND don't write huge checks to overrated vets. Those three aspects are the most important things a team can do to bring talent into their organization. |
| 22. By: Jerry on 12-16-2008 16:06:01 Building on my last post, I do think the M's are on the right track on all three fronts that I mentioned as crucial for any organization: the draft, the international market, and finding value in free agency. They will have a big draft next year, and Jack Z and the guys he brought from Milwaukee are well known for drafting well. The M's seem to have kept their international scouting infrastructure intact, which suggests that they will continue their success in that arena. And I have confidence in Zduriencik as an evaluator of ML talent. The M's should be weighing decisions to trade or keep several players based on draft pick compensation or potential trade value, because winning in 2009 isn't that important. Guys like Beltre Washburn, Batista, Bedard, Chavez, and Branyan are all eligible for free agency after 2009, and at least a few will net us draft pick compensation. So the M's might be looking at multiple picks next year as well, perhaps even more than we will have this year. The decision to keep or deal these guys should be based entirely on the value of players we could bring back versus the likelihood of them netting us extra picks. |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2008 16:35:26 Jerry, You're missing the point, thanks. As I mentioned above, if you read it and comprehended it, the bad ideas of Rowand and Zito. And I also said that emulating everything the Giants have done isn't what I was advocating. The Giants are simply the best example of how quickly the Mariners can turn things around. Not Milwaukee, Boston, Tampa. Milwaukee has been at least interesting for a few years, Boston has been good for years now and Tampa took years to put their picks to best use. Not that they aren't a good organization, because they are. But they aren't the best example for Seattle, or its fans. SF is NOT among the worst run franchises in baseball, not by a longshot. Think Cincinnati, San Diego, Kansas City, Washington, Toronto, Pittsburgh, and Seattle until now. SF simply made two large mistakes on the free agent market. Just about everything else they have done has been good, sound and ultimately correct. Even the Red Sox, perhaps the most well-oiled front office in all of SPORTS, make money mistakes on free agents and such. Lugo, Drew, maybe even Lowell... Varitek. Regardless, look at what is at the disposal of that Giants club right now. To be good again, the M's need some semblance of the same things - good, young talent across the board. |
| 24. By: FatBat on 12-16-2008 16:35:42 Right to the point Jason! -good,young talent across the board. In going along with that point wouldnt have been better that our GM have traded Valbuena and Green to Cleveland for Franklin G? and kept JJ Putz for a better trade down the line...I.E. a Good,Young talented player? I just think Jack could have gotten somethin better, sertanly from say the Brewers. Thoughts? |
| 25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2008 16:38:14 I think it's very possible, yes. But there is also the chance that Putz has another injury-riddled season and his value goes down. It's a bit of a risk to hang onto Putz into the season. I advocated hanging onto him through December and into January to see if the Dodgers or Cards would give in on a better lead player in a package for Putz. But I don't think the trade was bad by any means. BTW, the only thing electric about Cesar Jimenez is that he's best friends with Felix Hernandez. |
| 26. By: Jerry on 12-16-2008 16:42:52 I don't think I missed your point at all. The Giants have had a long tradition of disregarding the draft, and that only changed in the past few years. Up until that, they were vocally against spending on the draft. And the main difference between those other bad teams you listed - Cincinnati, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh - is financial. The Giants have maintained a high enough payroll to stay decent through their bad times. Their system looks good now because they have a few impact young pitchers in Lincecum and Cain, plus a bunch of prospects that mostly came from one big draft. At this time last year, they were a bad team and had a mediocre farm system. That good farm system obscures a pretty bad front office and team building strategy. Don't forget that this team's M.O. for past several years has been to overpay for aging veterans on a consistent basis. This club's M.O. has been to fix an aging roster by bringing in more older players. All this happened under Brian Sabean's watch, and he is still one of the worst GMs in baseball. They could contend this year because they are in a weak division. But they haven't consistently made smart moves. Their farm system is just based on having a lot of vets leave all at once, and getting some luck with those picks. They don't have a consistent record with the draft, on the international market, or in free agency. Maybe not the worst run team in baseball, but definitely not one that should be emulated. |
| 27. By: FatBat on 12-16-2008 16:51:51 ok ok. So Furcal looks to be gone today and I might say the final offers for Tex. have been comeing in. Is there any free agents left that the Mariners may have interest in? If a big trade isnt done by the start of the season, a small free agent move might be all thats needed. Meaning say Orlando Hudson for second base and more Lopez? |
| 28. By: FatBat on 12-16-2008 16:56:52 I mean the power situation still needs to be adressed but after Raul left to philli Hudson, to me is one of those team guy's you need to lead in the club house. I know Ichiro isnt :) we need one sorely! |
| 29. By: jgstecker on 12-16-2008 17:23:50 I believe Vargas still has an option remaining. His contract was purchased in 2005 by the Marlins and he stayed with them all season. He was optioned in 2006 and 2007, but spent all of 2008 on the DL. Jimenez has been optioned in each of the last three years, so unless the team has been granted a special 4th option (a la Wlad in 2008), he's out of options. Personally, I'd carry Jimenez and Lugo, send Vargas and Thomas to Tacoma, and find a veteran lefty to bring in short term. That's assuming Rowland-Smith has taken Washburn's rotation slot. By the end of January, someone will be willing to take Washburn and his contract. There aren't enough decent starters out there to meet everyones needs. And, yes, Washburn is still considered a decent starter by plenty of clubs. |
| 30. By: littlelinny6 on 12-16-2008 18:06:23 I don't know, Jimenez sucks. He can't get lefties out and he wouldn't be a long relief guy so in what situation would he pitch? |
| 31. By: littlelinny6 on 12-16-2008 18:59:31 Jason, Can you or someone as USSM or Lookout Landing please go cover the M's for MLB.com. Jim Street can't really believe what he is saying. http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081214&content_id=3717050&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea In this article asking about Yuni he says: "He has reached the stage of his career where he should be one of the best players at his position. His range is great and his hands and feet are superb. When you think of a potential Gold Glove winner, he ranks near the top in the American League among shortstops....What you see is what you get -- an aggressive hitter who plays excellent defense." My question for you Jason is, do you know Jim Street and if so I would love to hear an explanation of how Yuni has "great range" and plays "excellent defense". Maybe you can encourage him to go work for another club as some assistant GM and we can trade Yuni--haha. |
| 32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-16-2008 21:23:39 Jerry, All things that I specifically said already. Thanks for playing along and ignoring the story itself. The Giants "long history" of bad decisions has pretty much gone away. Three solid drafts - two beastly drafts, and not just the top rounds - and a couple key int. signings and here they are, regardless of Rowand and Zito. Their signing of Renteria is being analyzed as solid or better by anyone whose opinion matters nationally, and the Affeldt deal was very good, too. Who cares what they did three or five years ago? |
| 33. By: Slurve on 12-16-2008 21:39:41 Out of curiosity who is the person pictured in the articles? |
| 34. By: rturk89 on 12-16-2008 22:37:14 ^That's Tim Alderson wearing a San Jose Giants uniform. |
| 35. By: bodhizefa on 12-16-2008 23:21:03 Am I wrong in thinking Pablo Sandoval has a good shot at being the best position player on the Giants this year? According to UZR, he's pretty darned good with the glove, and he's a line drive hitting machine. Am I being too optimistic about his combined prowess on offense and defense? |
| 36. By: Daryl on 12-16-2008 23:22:43 Jason I am wondering about the Mariners options at catcher. The pitchers don't like to work with Johima, his stats were terible last year and he seemed to be in the center of alot of team turmoil last year. Clement doesn't have a strong arm and I hear there is concerns about his durability. Should Johnson be the everyday catcher with Clement relieving him and Johima the 3rd option/dh? Also, what are the prospects of trading Johima to Boston or to a team in Japan? |
| 37. By: rjfricke on 12-17-2008 02:32:08 Jason, First off I would like to say thank you for your insight and information about Mariners baseball. I've been a fan since Griffey was playing for Bellingham M's and I caught 2 of his HR balls in Salem, Oregon against the Salem Angels and then had them signed by him after the game. It seems as I grew up with the M's and I'm constantly thirsty for information about them, in all forms. You really do seem to quench my thirst a lot with quality information and analysis. Once again I thank you for that and keep up the good work. About the Giants, I agree, the last 3 years have been amazing for that club with their signings and I can imagine JZ, being the great talent evaluator he is, mimicking that same success to an extent. This truly is an exciting time to be an M's fan. |
| 38. By: John_S on 12-17-2008 08:48:37 Do you know if the M's are still going after Jeremy Hermida? Who do you think is going to be the DH for most of the season? |
| 39. By: JoelHamlin22 on 12-17-2008 14:42:56 Jason, do you know if Jackie Z uses sabermetrics to analyze free agent signings or trades? |
| 40. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-17-2008 15:33:08 From what I hear, Hermida is not necessarily off the table, but not currently being discussed. Joel, Once you start calling him by his real name, I bet 50 people here can answer that question. |
| 41. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-17-2008 15:34:20 BTW, John, I think unless the roster changes, and it probably will, the DH spot will be made up of a number of players, including Clement, Johjima, Branyan, maybe Shelton, Wlad. |
| 42. By: JoelHamlin22 on 12-17-2008 15:46:52 Jason, I call him the same name that Softy calls him on KJR. I didn't think there was anything wrong with that and I am new to this site, but I can see now that you are disrespectful and I won't be returning to this site. |
| 43. By: littlelinny6 on 12-17-2008 16:23:50 Jason, One assumption you made with your roster is Shelton being on the team as a platoon 1B. How about Mike Morse? I know he is everyone's favorite player to loathe but he played well this fall in the Arizona Fall League. Do you see this a good competition for the platoon 1B job?? I know both players are underwhelming but in limited time in Seattle Morse has hit well, albeit without much power. |
| 44. By: StandinPat on 12-17-2008 16:40:56 I think Morse is in the running. Shelton wasn't offered a MLB contract which is a pretty good indication he's gonna have to earn a roster spot. Morse has always hit pretty well in limited time in the majors, and has decent power potential, although that hasn't really materialized as of yet. I think Morse would be a good option, going back to the young, cheap, and effective type of players you should be rounding out your bench with, ie not Cairo and Bloomquist. Morse would also offer the versatility of playing a couple of different positions. |
| 45. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-17-2008 16:42:28 bodhizefa, Probably not, Sandoval is a decent bat and can play first base well enough, but those stats you are looking are the epitome of small-sample sizing. Joel, Have a sense of humor, will ya? Geez. Otherwise, good riddance. We can't help you here. |
| 46. By: deturet on 12-17-2008 16:48:12 What is JZ's stance on trading Ichiro? It seems that if there ever was a good time to do it it would be now. Attendance already fell a bunch last season and most mariner fans already know 2009 is gonna be a trying year. Does anybody have any info on the status with Ichiro on this team? Who might be a good trade partner..the Cardinals?..just throwin that out there. |
| 47. By: Walrus on 12-17-2008 16:48:54 Jason, Going back to the catcher position for the M's... what have you heard about Clement's knee. 2 surgeries in 2 years is not good, and he is not quite league average defensively yet, if I understand correctly. Therefore, while I know many of us believe Clement will hit, and he will be cheap for roughly 4 more years... Is it time to think about trading him yet? I doubt any in the Mariners org give Clement a better than 25% chance of sticking at catcher for more than a couple years, and then he becomes a slightly above average DH / 1B. As we have seen this year, as well as in the past, these types of players are cheap. Clement's value may not be at its peak yet, but this is the same argument that we just had for JJ. One more knee injury for Clement, and he is basically worthless. I know you disagree with me, but please help show where my assessment in is error. |
| 48. By: MMjohns195 on 12-17-2008 18:18:24 What i wouldn't give for Ichiro to be traded. He just screws everything up, he plays the power spot in the OF and doesn't hit for power, i don't ever remember seeing him dive for a ball...ever. They just have too many light hitting guys in the OF. If he put up those stats at second or short, i doubt anyone would want to trade him. Although at 17m a year, it's probably just wishful thinking. Personally, if you can get at least 2 impact players back, everyone including Felix is trade-able. I just think it's a symptom of Seattle fans that we become way more attached to the individual than the team. I don't care who's on the team, how great a guy they are, or what they do in their spare time. Just win baby. |
| 49. By: acqb1424 on 12-17-2008 18:46:36 Jason, What do you think is going to happen with Fields? I know there is no rush to sign him, but would it be safe to assume that if he doesn't sign by spring training then we probably won't be signing him? I'm split on what to do with him, I'd rather almost have the draft pick and see what we can get. What are your thoughts? Also, whatever happened to E. Salcedo, he was the top International FA two years ago, then his price was too much and then all the questions about his age. Did they every get an accurate age on him and did he sign? If he turned out to be 20, would he be someone to go after on a cheaper deal? |
| 50. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-17-2008 20:21:27 Clement has so little value right now it makes little sense to even explore trading him. Nobody knows what he is, and the doubt about his defense behind the plate is too great. Re: Ichiro I don't know what Zduriencik's stance on trading Ichiro is. All I know is that Ichiro would basically have to request a trade, or something close to such a thing, for the suits to be okay with it. While I'm not sure he has done so or will, I have a feeling it's crossed his mind, based on the way some have talked about it around the league. MMjohns, While I'm with you on the corner spot/power thing, the whole diving thing just holds no water. He covers ground, that's what matters. Reed isn't better than Ichiro because he dives. Ichiro is better because Reed has to dive to get to balls because his footspeed is lacking and his routes aren't great. acqb1424, I think the M's let him walk. And at this point, I think that's what I'd do, too. If you're Jack, don't you want to make that pick yourself? I would, and as a fan, it's what I want Zduriencik to do. re: Salcedo They'll never get an accurate age on him, but the best MLB could do was come to the tentative conclusion that he was "about 20 months older" than he originally claimed. He'd still be a very good prospect, but certainly not one worth $4-5 million. He is still available, too. |
| 51. By: acqb1424 on 12-17-2008 20:34:08 Yeah, I was figuring they would let Fields walk, that makes the most sense, so the probability of us having 5 early picks looks pretty good. Have you heard any rumors on Salcedo? Is anyone after him or are his contract demands still way too high? It seems like if he'd be willing to cut that money in half, like $2-3 million, he'd be a good prospect to bring in. Any chance we see the Mariners taking a shot on him? |
| 52. By: MMjohns195 on 12-17-2008 21:51:37 Jason, Thats well understood. I know that just because a player doesn't dive doesn't mean he isn't getting to balls other guys that do dive do. I am more questioning his desire out there. I personally feel like if he doesn't think he can get it, he will give up and not try. It may not be valid and thats fine it's just my perception. I don't know if his range is that much better than Cameron's or Griffey's was. I guess i'm not qualified to criticize Ichiro, I'm pretty biased. I don't like him as a player, i have thought his leadership or lack there of is detrimental to the team. I think he values personal goals over team goals and so forth. So i'll just shut up about it. Any rumblings on Griffey for said DH or are they going to let Wlad and Clement hack it out? What does the acquisition of Carp do to Raben's timeline? I heard one of the Pi guys or Baker say he's (carp) expected to come in and challenge for the starting 1st base job? |
| 53. By: Slack on 12-17-2008 22:16:06 I wouldn't worry about Carp having any effect on Raben's time line. Carp is much closer to the show and that is all that really matters. |
| 54. By: MMjohns195 on 12-17-2008 22:39:43 Isn't the ultimate goal though to shift Raben from OF to 1st? I wonder who Jason thinks is the better prospect in terms of overall potential. |
| 55. By: StandinPat on 12-17-2008 22:57:23 Couple of thoughts.... 1) Ichiro in right. While prior to this offseason I was adamant about him being shifted back to CF so the M's could get two 'corner OF' type bats, but with the acquisition of Gutierrez I've changed my stance. Gutierrez, imo, is a much better defender than Ichiro in CF and Ichiro is still about as good as you are gonna find in RF. That in and of itself holds alot of value, on top of that Ichiro is still among the best leadoff men in the game and I think Franklyn's bat is way underrated. I think you could make the argument that Gutierrez would overall be about as valuable as most RF's you could find, even if you did shift Ichiro back to CF anyway. 2) Don't ever, ever worry about having two of your better prospects at the same position, especially when they are gonna start the year two or three levels apart. Those things always have a way of working themselves out. Injuries, prospects not panning out, etc. And if Carp does come up a do well, and Raben continues to rake well then you just trade one of them to fill another hole in your org and keep the one that you deem to be the best fit. Again, never a bad 'problem' to have. |
| 56. By: MMjohns195 on 12-17-2008 23:13:26 You have to define "Great" leadoff guy. Is that the guy that hits 330 with a obp of 380 and sees less than 4 pitches or the guy who hits 280 with a 380 obp and sees 5 or 6 pitches? The production that ichiro puts out is not as valuable as most rf regardless of average or hits. You have no power and your traditional power spots are occupied by no power guys right now, and you have 3 no power guys in the OF. I'm not doom and gloom it's just frustrating. Are we really sure he'd be worse than lopez or betancourt in the inf? can we try? |
| 57. By: Pumpkin on 12-17-2008 23:34:06 Jason You said earlier you had heard some talk about Ichiro. Anything you can tell us? MM I totally agree with you that he doesn't care about his team. I think Ichiro cares about one thing, and one thing only, getting hits. He doesn't seem to care when he gets his hits or if it is a single or a home run. Oh well don't get me started. Jason you asked me last discussion if I had seen Purke. No I haven't at least not in person, I have seen videos of him but that's it. I was just wondering why you have him so low on your draft order? I have read quite a few reports on him and he seems to be very similar to Kershaw with a little bit better FB. I would almost say he is second only to Stratusburg. |
| 58. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-18-2008 00:00:39 A better FB than Keshaw? No. Sorry, but Purke isn't Kershaw. He may go in the same area of the draft as Kershaw, maybe even a few spots higher, but in a much weaker draft. When I said that the point I was making is that there is his entire senior season to go yet... remember who the top prep arm was this time last year? Tim Melville. A couple years ago it was Jordan Walden. So much can change, and especially with pitchers. |
| 59. By: StandinPat on 12-18-2008 02:31:22 mmjohns.... you do realize you just ran out two identical obp's? cause if thats the case, yeah, i'm less concerned about ba than I am OBP for my leadoff hitter. And again, the crux of our former leadership, completely discounting defense. Why? really, at this point, with all the defensive metrics, and data pulled about the importance of defense and its quantitive value, now able to be viewed the same way as offense, how do you just completely discount any value Ichiro might have in right field and immediately discount him as being of any value at that position? |
| 60. By: Uncle Al on 12-18-2008 06:33:28 Jason Just noticed on your "Projected 25 Man Roster" that Carlos Silva should read: 2008 $7M and a $5M signing Bonus, 2009 $11M, 2010 and 2011 $11.5M, and 2012 either $12M or a $2M Buyout option. |
| 61. By: John_S on 12-18-2008 08:31:42 Jason, Is the holdup on Salcedo because of his age or is he still looking for a contract between 4-5 million? It seems like if I was the kid I would have wanted to sign last year instead of wasting a year of development with a team. Would there be a difference perception of him in regards to projectability if he is 18 vs 16? Vid on Salcedo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndsO9mrJxao&eurl=http://www.nyyankeefans.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=47664&feature=player_embedded |
| 62. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-18-2008 14:16:53 Jason, I have to agree with littlelinny6 (post#31)- how in the WORLD are you not in charge of all things Seattle Mariners at the P-I? I just exhibited my occasional masochism and read a Jim Street mailbox and it made smoke come out of my ears. It's like he's writing for kinda-smart fourth-graders. And he makes mistakes all the time, like calling Heilman a "28-year-old reliever". Heilman turned 30 a month ago. To say nothing of confusing YuBet for a GoldGlover. I admit, however, I'm curious: who is E. Salcedo? I haven't heard thing #1 about this. I do know though, there's a world of difference between being 18 and 16 as a prospect in terms of the deal you get- at 18-19 you don't have as much projectability, not as much time to develop into something they want- ergo, less value. |
| 63. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-18-2008 14:23:22 re: Silva and 25-man What is there is what is left on his deal, not the entire contract. re: Linny, rocketdawg I don't know why I'm not at least more involved, but my guess is that they have two guys in Andriesen and Hickey who work very hard, regardless of the possibility that they just don't get it. I have met Andriesen a few times and while I think he's got a ways to go as far as writing in a more meaningful, provocative manner, he's really not bad. He just isn't paid to do what Baker does, nor is Hickey, so they don't do it. But to further answer your question, I suggest emailing their editors and asking for more Churchill and telling them why. Sports@SeattlePI.com |
| 64. By: ASUBoyd on 12-18-2008 15:34:44 I wrote in - always had a preference for the PI since family used to work there, but would love to see you given more articles. Do we root for Beltre to get moved? Or do we hope to keep him? I love Beltre - but what is in the best interests of the team? I can't really decide. Also - how far do you think Raben moves this year? And did you get to see any of Pribanic? Did Testa sign? Thanks, Jason. |
| 65. By: littlelinny6 on 12-18-2008 15:41:05 Thanks for the email address Jason. I think more than anything it would be nice to have a local newspaper that is knowledgeable and not a "homer". As for ASUBoyd, I am part of the camp that would love to keep Beltre long term (so we can at least have one good defensive IF). Unforunately the team sucks right now and unless the M's are competitive next year I do not see him wanting to stick around. If he gets traded unless we get a kings ransom for him (which we won't cuz defense is undervalued), we have no 3B. Tui does not have anywhere near the potential of Beltre. Also keep in mind that even though Beltre has been in the league for ever, he's only 29 and really in his prime years. |
| 66. By: Sidius Maximus on 12-18-2008 16:28:27 Jason, In the spirit of X-mas. Any prospect of going after Abreu? There is something intriguing about the idea of him in a Mariners uniform. Beltre is great! Would love to see him stay on long-term. This team needs more of, not less of the professional standard he sets. |
| 67. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-18-2008 22:09:33 The more you guys write in, even the same people, the better chance that they'll cave in and have me do more stuff. I haven't pitched them anything this winter, and that's my fault since they usually bite on a few. But write in often, it will make a difference. |
| 68. By: jonbbt on 12-19-2008 03:11:35 Jason - have you heard anything about Wakamatsu wanting to move Lopez to 1st permanently? (Hickey) I think he's trying to open up a spot for Hairston, who Waka is said to be very fond of. It would open up some other options as well, though. |
| 69. By: marinerseric on 12-20-2008 22:35:39 What are the chances Griffey returns? I know its not the right time, but he is a free agent right? |
| 70. By: stickball on 12-21-2008 18:11:46 3 Team Trade: Mets: Alex Rios (gets $5m bonus to waive no trade clause), Tug Hulett, Maikel Cleto. Blue Jays: Erik Bedard, Wlad Balentien. Mariners: Daniel Murphy, Fernando Martinez, Marc Rzepczynski. The Mariners pay $4m of the $5m to waive the no-trade, the Mets pay $1m. The Blue Jays and Bedard have mutual attraction. Their rotation doesn't skip a beat with Bedard replacing AJ Burnett. The Blue Jays get out from the 6 years, $65m remaining on Rios contract. This gives Toronto payroll flexibility to make a run at Adam Dunn or Milton Bradley, or even Teixeira depending upon their budget. The Mets get a power right hand bat with a better glove than Manny or Burrell at a cheaper rate than Manny or Burrell. Daniel Murphy is expendable, they have Wright at 3B and Delgado at 1B. Tug Hulett provides backup for Castillo and can play SS. The Mariners get a $5m break = $9m (Bedard) - $4m. They pick up a ready major leaguer and a top OF prospect. Sign Sheets to back ended 3 year, $38m contact. 2009-$5m, 2010-$16m, 2011-$17m option with $2m buyout. The 2011 option vests with 60 games started in the first two years. Trade Washburn plus $3.5m for a prospect. Sign Griffey (one year $5m, 2010 option at $9m with $1m buyout - buyout goes to $2m if Griffey gets 500 PA). LaHair, Rob Johnson begin the year in Tacoma. Wait until mid-spring training on whether to trade Mike Morse or Daniel Murphy. Overall: The Mariners get slightly faster at 1B and DH. Griffey gets on base at a .350 mark, setting up Beltre and Branyan. The Mariners get top prospect Fernando Martinez and another prospect Rzepczynski. Lineup (ESPN type calculations): 1. Ichiro RF ($17.1 m) 2. Griffey DH ($7.0 m) 3. Beltre 3B ($13.4 m) 4. Branyan 1B ($1.9 m) 5. Lopez 2B ($2.15 m) 6. Gutierrez CF ($450 k) 7. Murphy LF (420 k) 8. Johjima C ($8 m) 9. Betancourt SS ($2.3 m) Bench: Clement C ($420 k) Shelton 1B ($450 k) Corona IF ($400 K) Chavez LF ($2.05 m) 56.04m Johjima plays 3 days on, 2 days off. Clement takes 2 days on, 3 days off at catcher. Clement also plays one day every 5 days at DH. When Johjima plays catcher and Clement is DH, Shelton does not play 1B, Shelton is emergency catcher. If Clement is found not suitable for catcher during spring training then 1)place Griffey in LF, 2) callup Rob Johnson, 3) place Clement at DH, 4) Trade Murphy. Rotation: 1. Felix ($5m, arb) 2. Sheets ($5 m) 3. Silva ($11.25 m) 4. Morrow ($440 k) 5. Rowland-Smith ($410 K) Bullpen: CL Heilman ($2.1m, arb) Lowe ($420 K) Corcoran (420 k) Lugo ($400 K) Jimenez ($420 k) Batista ($9.5 m) Vargas ($420 K) $35.78m PAYROLL: $91.82m plus payments + $4m (Bedard/Rios) + 3.5 (Washburn) Total 25 man payroll including payments = $99.32m |
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!
|
|
 |
|
|
| Copyright 2010 Prospect Insider | Created by AQ Central Prospect Insider is optimized for Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome |