| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 06-25-2010 |
The talk of baseball right now is clearly centered around Seattle Mariners southpaw Cliff Lee. We're all wondering when he'll walk a batter again and talking about how disgusting is it that he went 0-2 on 19 batters Wednesday night, throwing 90 of 115 pitches for strikes. But the $64,000 question is: Where will the ace left-hander be pitching in August?
It's probably more like a $64 million dollar inquiry, and handicapping such a race is impossible since the facts change every day in all directions. But using all the information we could gather through scouts, a couple front office executives, some connected media people and what has been written and reported to date, we take a stab at it below, including a scouting angle on the talent.
But this lengthy exercise -- and I'm serious when I say lengthy -- is more aimed at taking a look at what each club has to offer Seattle in return for Lee, and how likely it is that the club part with the necessary talents to get M's GM Jack Zduriencik to pull the trigger.
In the coming days, we'll also take a look at why Seattle really has to trade Lee and what would have to happen to change that, as well as talk specific scenarios and trade packages -- with a twist or two.
But, for now at least...
1. Texas Rangers
Let's get this out of the way right now -- Justin Smoak, Elvis Andrus, Martin Perez and Neftali Feliz are all untouchable. So the Rangers rich system doesn't mean the Mariners will be fleecing the division-leading Lone Stars for three big-league stars the way the Rangers did the Braves in exchange for Mark Teixeira.
Tanner Scheppers, RHP (AA, AAA)
Scheppers would have to be a player to be named later as a 2009 draftee who signed in August, but his name is probably going to come up if the two sides talk. The right-hander has made three starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City after splitting 17 relief appearances across two stops.
He's still stretching out, having gone no longer than four frames in any of the three outings, but he's still missing bats with 92-96 mph velocity. Injury history is a bit of a concern, but there's also a chance all of that is behind Scheppers, who slid in the draft two years in a row with concerns over his right shoulder.
Fastball command and mechanics will be the key for him, but he's within a year or so of the big leagues and could help in the majors in relief right now -- and might later this summer in Arlington.
Jurickson Profar, SS (SS-A)
I'm being told that the Mariners should demand that Profar is in any deal with Texas, despite the kid being 17 years old with limited experience. He's a switch hitter with a plus arm, great hands and a reputation as a tireless worker with character.
Profar has a shot to hit for average power which goes well with his above-average defensive projections and his tremendous work ethic and overall makeup. If short didn't work out, he has the instincts, arm and athleicism to play center, too. This is Jack Zduriencik's kind of shortstop, so take note of the name.
Wilmer Font, RHP (A+)
Font is holding his own as a 20-year-old in the California League, fanning a batter an inning after doing the same in the Midwest league. He's huge, perhaps creeping up on 250 pounds at 6-foot-4, so conditioning will be a concern going forward.
Font employs a low-to-mid 90s fastball as a starter and has touched triple digits on stadium guns, while his changeup is above average for a kid with his experience. His curveball is often overthrown and flattens out, and the Rangers could flip that into a slider as Font moves through the minors.
His ceiling is limitless, but there is a lot of work to do. The good news is, he's making significant progress as a pro, and the future looks extremely bright. He's a not-so-rich-man's Feliz. Not bad.
Chris Davis, 1B/DH
Davis is a below-average defensive first baseman with a long swing, big raw power and a poor track record in his stints in the show. He's 24, giving him a little time yet to clean things up, but other than the power, Davis lacks an average tool. There are holes in his swing that haven't shrunk much since his MLB debut in 2008, so there's little chance he closes them soon enough to be a star, or even an average regular.
Others: Blake Beaven, RHP; Michael Main, RHP; Wilfredo Boscan, RHP; Robbie Ross, LHP; Kasey Kiker, LHP; Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C; Taylor Teagarden, C; John Whittleman, 3B; Carlos Pimentel, RHP; Matt Thompson, RHP; Robert Erlin, LHP.
Clearly, the Rangers system is stacked. When I went asking for a few names outside the obvious, area scouts and a few assistant GMs - a total of five talent evaluators - threw 11 names at me for the Rangers, when three to six came in for other clubs.
This depth should allow for the Rangers to acquire any trade-available player they want without disrupting their 25-man roster, including Lee. If LHP Derek Holland were healthy, there might be an outside chance he'd be available in such a trade, but Font, Boscan, Thompson, Main, Erlin and Pimental provide plenty of upside arms to add to a package deal.
As I suggested, Profar could be key, and along with the Dodgers, the Rangers are the team hottest on Lee's trail. The $5 million or so still owed Lee for the remainder of the season will not get in the way of the Rangers acquiring him, and to get more in return the Mariners can simply send cash along with the left-hander.
The intra-division issue isn't one at all for Seattle, and may not be a big one for Texas, who will hang on to most or all of their elite talents. There are scenarios where I could see Feliz's name included, but that's highly unlikely at best, since it would require more coming from Seattle, or the Mariners settling for fewer players.
And while I think Seattle will be looking for quality over quantity, Zduriencik may see an opportunity to fill multiple roster spots rather than just one major piece with a risky shot at a few others.
2. New York Mets
Wilmer Flores, 1B/OF (A)
Flores is just 18 until August and is repeating the Sally League after struggling there in terms of numbers last season. He's been much better in 2010, and profiles as a potential corner bat -- he's playing shortstop now but probably won't end up a good defender, possibly even at third base thanks to heavy feet. He can throw, however, and may fit in right field where his plus power potential could ultimately play out.
Fernando Martinez, RF (AAA)
Martinez, 21, has plus skills across the board and might already be a big-league star if it weren't for the injury bug that has once again bit him this season. When healthy he will hit for average and power and make solid contact. He can defend -- could spell the starter in center field -- and run and ... get injured, but he's not performing at the plate this year.
He's a six-tool player, apparently, but due to the health risk in his profile, he's not a headline prospect in any deal for Lee, but could be part of a multi-player package.
Josh Thole, C (AAA)
Thole profiles as a below-average defender behind the dish with a 40 or 45 arm and average, at best, receiving abilities. So, if he isn't an everyday catcher, his bat has to carry him.
The bad news is, he possesses below-average power because of his approach and swing -- he's been known to choke up and take a protect-the-plate type attack. He may hit for average as a result, and he's not averse to the walk, drawing 22 in just under 200 plate appearances this season, which is right in line with his career rate.
Brad Holt, RHP (A+)
Holt's value depends on who you ask. One scout said he might be a three-pitch setup man, while another sees him as a No. 4 starter. That's because his velocity is all over the place, ranging from 88 to 95 mph.
His power curveball and occasional average changeup show promise, but the 23-year-old tends to get caught up in trying to light up the radar gun, putting too much effort in his delivery and creating inconsistent mechanics that lead to situational control problems. His ceiling is as a mid-rotation arm, but my guess is that he ends up in the bullpen where he isn't asked to hold his delivery together for 100-plus pitches.
Jon Niese, LHP (AAA, MLB)
Niese, also 23, sits around 90 mph with his fastball, which is important because it tails in on righties, giving him two weapons versus RHBs. The other is a fringy changeup. His best pitch is an overhand curveball which induces some swings and misses, but he relies on batters to chase it for the strikeout.
His command has never been great, but he throws strikes and has already made an impact for the Mets in the majors this season with a 12-start stint that has resulted in respectable numbers.
Reese Havens, 2B (A+, AA)
Havens is an intriguing player as a left-handed hitting second baseman, and he offers above-average power and good patience. He knows the strike zone well and should ultimately make enough contact to warrant regular play.
He's not a great defender, having moved off shortstop this season and did not look natural there during Fall League workouts.
The 23-year-old's bat may do the talking for him, however, as he's hit well at two minor-league stop, including an 18-game stretch in Double-A Binghamton that has produced an OPS over 1.000.
Ruben Tejada, SS (AAA, MLB)
Tejada is the antithesis of Havens in that he profiles as a shortstop, runs a litter better, probably a 50 or 55 on the scouting scale, but may not hit enough to warrant a regular gig. He does make contact, and but lack the ability to work deep counts and take walks.
He may swipe 15-20 bases a year and could add just enough gap power as he fills out.
Tejada is just 20, and has time to improve enough in all areas to change his most likely future, but a team willing to play his defense and wait for his bat to develop into a useful tool will value him enough.
Jenrry Mejia, RHP (MLB)
Mejia is just 20 but has spent the season in the Mets bullpen with so-so results. But his future is in the rotation with a chance at No. 2 status thanks to a fastball that sits 92-95 mph and a plus changeup. His curveball is an average or better pitch, too, and, well, the Mets would be crazy to offer him in a trade for a rental, despite Mejia's below-average command and control.
He's been sent to Double-A to stretch out his arm as a rotation candidate, which serves well for the Mets in terms of their own rotation, as well as for clubs such as Seattle, Houston and Cleveland who can scout Mejia as a starter.
Others: Juan Urbina, LHP; Jefry Marte, 3B; Kirk Nieuwenhuis, RF; Nick Evans, 1B; Lucas Duda, 1B.
Speculation suggests the Mets are willing to part with Mejia and another player or two in return for Lee, but until that is official I won't buy it. Mejia is the best bet the Mets have in their organization to jump in and help them within the next year or so, and has significantly more upside than does Holt or Niese.
And since Oliver Perez is unreliable and Lee isn't re-signing in Queens -- nor is he signing an extension with the club pre-trade -- the Mets would head into the offseason having to spend millions on rotation help if they have any hope to win in 2011 and beyond.
Flores is the other untouchable in my mind, as he projects as a middle of the order bat, despite questions about where he will play in the field. If Martinez is not a good enough headliner in a package for Lee, I would move on. But I'm not Omar Minaya, whose job may be on the line this summer.
Though if I were the Mets GM on the hot seat, I'd go to my bosses and explain to them that sending out Flores or Mejia for a few months of any player hurts the club more than it helps them. If they wanted to fire me for that, fine.
3. Minnesota Twins
Wilson Ramos, C (AAA, MLB)
Ramos is 6-feet-1 and 225 pounds, suggesting it's possible he outgrows the position in time, but he'll be 23 this summer and is presently an above-average defender thanks to a plus throwing and good technique; his pop times are consistently 1.9 or better.
At the plate, Ramos is not a patient hitter -- he's walked seven times in just under 200 plate appearances after drawing six in 238 plate appearances a year ago. He's had some injury issues, but nothing serious that figures to recur. He has power, especially to his pull side, but his swing is engineered for line drives more than fly balls, so the home-run pop may be limited to average levels.
Aaron Hicks, CF (A)
Hicks was the Twins first-round pick two years ago after starring on the mound and at the plate in high school. His plus arm and raw power stick out the most, and hes a switch hitter but has fared much better from the right side this year, despite better bat speed as a lefty and more success from that side of the plate a year ago.
He's likely to stick in center thanks to 55 or 60 speed and good instincts and may top out with 20-25 homer power. He's still expected to come around from both sides of the plate, as he's already patient and selective, and his pitch recognition is above-average for a 20-year-old.
Joe Benson, OF (A+, AA)
Benson, 22, profiles as a fourth outfielder or platoon player with average power and below-average plate skills. He's running out of time and chances to show he can play every day and continues to weak splits.
He's a solid athlete but isn't going to stick in center field long term.
Ben Revere, OF (AA)
Revere does a lot of things well, including get on base, make contact and run. He has center-field range but has a well below-average arm and 30 power at the plate. Most likely another fourth outfielder, although Revere, a left-handed batter, has shown he can handle lefties. What he has problems with, however, is dealing with good velocity in on his hands as he tends to dive out over the plate.
Danny Valencia, 3B (AAA, MLB)
Valencia is already 25 and a fringe big-leaguer, but does offer some on-base skills and above-average power that has yet to fully show up in the way of the long ball. He has the arm to play third and has shown he can make the throws, but there is still question as to whether he can become more than passable at the position, which then sends him to a corner outfield spot or even first base where his bat probably doesn't play.
Kyle Gibson, RHP (A+, AA)
Gibson's value is in his ability to throw strikes with quality stuff and the apparent timetable at hand he's likely to challenge for the big leagues by April, 2011, if not late this season. At 6-foot-6 he could get more downward plane, but his low-90s fastball has some sink and he commands it well. His slider is considered a potential plus pitch and he's flashed an above-average changeup at times, both at the University of Missouri, and this season in pro ball.
He's not an ace, but could be a complimentary mid-rotation arm with a ceiling as a No. 2, depending on where his three-pitch arsenal ends up: he could add velocity to his four-seam fastball, his changeup could be the equalizer versus left-handed batters and the slider could end up a true out pitch.
Others: Max Kepler, OF; Adrian Salcedo, RHP; Miguel Sano, SS; David Bromberg, RHP; Carlos Gutierrez, RHP; Matt Bashore, LHP; Angel Morales, OF.
If the Twins are to avoid a mass quantity trade where they include two or more of their Top 10 prospects plus big-league reliever Jose Mijares -- or include a prized prospect such as Hicks or shortstop Miguel Sano, Ramos has to be involved in a deal for Cliff Lee.
The Twins organization has a new revenue stream in Target Field, but I still can't see them offering Ramos and another of their top prospects or young players for a rental such as Lee, and there aren't any ideal fits on the big league roster outside Mijares.
The Twins probably only end up with Lee if other clubs fail to offer what many in the industry believe they will. So it may be good for the Twins the closer it gets to the deadline.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
Chris Withrow, RHP (AA)
I wrote about Withrow right here last week after a dominating performance in Double-A, and he's capable of repeating that time and time again. But in order to do so his command and control both need improvement, but the good news is he has the delivery and consistent mechanics to develop at least average command.
He's a power arm within two years of the big leagues, and his physical makeup, background in the game and work ethic suggest he will find success in the big leagues. His curveball is his out pitch, and some scouts believe it's plus already and could play in the show immediately.
Ethan Martin, RHP (A+)
Martin was a two-way player in high school and could have been drafted in the first round as a third baseman or right fielder with plus raw power. But he's been good enough on the mound to warrant the selection as an arm, and at 20 years of age is hanging in there in the pitcher's nightmare that is the Cal League. He's missing bats and flashing a plus breaking ball, a curveball that he gets some hitters to chase, but his change and mechanics are still somewhat raw.
Martin is another power arm with upside as a No. 2 starter and a safe haven as a closer with mid-to-upper 90s heat.\
Aaron Miller, LHP (A+)
Miller is two years older than Martin and they share a clubhouse at Class-A Inland Empire, but Miller has allowed just 53 hits in 74 2/3 innings and posted a pretty impressive ERA under three. He might be a year from the big leagues, which would be a big boost for L.A. next summer considering they may not have the financial flexibility to sign a starter next winter.
Miller won't often overpower big-league bats, but he will touch the mid-90s with his fastball, and has added a tick or two of velocity since signing last summer. He's a prime candidate to dominate lefty bats with his low-80s slider and ability to throw his fastball for strikes on both sides of the plate.
Dee Gordon, SS (AA)
Gordon is the gem of the system right now and may be the club's next franchise shortstop. The son of former big-league pitcher Tom Gordon possesses big-time speed, probably an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and is an aggressive hitter who invites pitches on the inner half and uses quick wrists to produce line drives.
As he gets stronger and learns to go the other way, Gordon, a left-handed hitter, may be able to hit .300 and then some considering his speed, and could develop enough pop to be a well above-average bat relative to the position.
His range at shortstop is considered plus and his arm gets a little better every year as he matures physically. He's a few years away from graduation due to crude plate skills, but just needs more experience. He's faring well enough in Double-A at age 21 this season, despite struggling versus left-handed pitching.
Others: Ivan DeJesus, Jr, SS; Allen Webster, RHP; Andrew Lambo, OF; Scott Elbert, LHP; Travyon Robinson, CF; Josh Lindblom, RHP.
It's difficult to imagine the Dodgers dealing Gordon for a rental, especially since Rafael Furcal is a free agent after 2011, unless the club exercises their $12 million option on a player that will be 34 at the time.
Without Gordon, the Dodgers could probably still put together a package for Lee that would make sense in terms of total talent, since Withrow, Miller, etc., aren't far from the big leagues. But since Seattle is believed to much prefer bats, it may cost the Dodgers Matt Kemp, who, despite his struggles this season, may be as untouchable as any position player in the organization and GM Ned Colletti would be dealing Kemp when his value is at its lowest.
5. Detroit Tigers
Andrew Oliver, LHP (AA, MLB)
Oliver made his big-league debut Friday night after showing well in Double-A Erie, less than a year after signing with the club as their second-round pick. Oliver sits in the 91-94 mph range, touching the upper 90s on occasion, and uses a slider as his out pitch. His command is average, perhaps slightly above-average this season at times, but as he gains consistencies in terms of his mechanics, more strikes will come in droves.
In attempt to help him stay out of the middle of the zone, he's added a sinking fastball, perhaps a traditional two-seamer, to his arsenal.
He profiles as a No. 2 starter, with a basement of a quality No. 3-4 in the mold of a Randy Wolf or Barry Zito, and it's unlikely he'd be available for a rental this summer, unless the deal was simply Oliver plus moderate-level talents for the ace southpaw in Seattle.
Jacob Turner, RHP (A)
The only way Turner and Oliver can be traded, however, is as players to be named later, as both signed their contracts last August and the one-year minimum will not be up by the trade deadline. Turner is likely off limits as well, as the Tigers look to rebuild their gutted farm system and love the power pitcher.
Turner uses a 93-97 mph fastball with decent command and he's not afraid to throw inside. He has thrown a two-seam version at about 92 mph, but his curve ball is his bread and butter. It's a 12-6 pitch with sharp break and pretty solid depth for a prep arm.
He's performing in his first pro season this summer, too, and prompted one AL scout to wonder "why he was considered a money pick last year. He's that good. Whatever bonus he got ($5.5 million and a big-league contract) he's worth it..."
...which is why he's not going to be part of any trade this summer, or anytime soon.
Casey Crosby, LHP (Injured)
Crosby may have been an ideal candidate for such a trade had he not had elbow surgery, the bad kind with the initials 'T' and 'J' in it, just this past fall. When healthy last season, his 91-95 mph fastball showed life and touched the upper 90s on occasion, at least on stadium radar guns.
His curveball comes out of his hand with deception -- more so than the fastball and change -- thanks to his wrist position just prior to his release point -- and he throws from a typical high three-quarters slot.
He's 6-foot-4 or 5 and uses his height well, but lacks ideal command. But let's be honest, he's as inexperienced as any 21-year-old arm in pro ball.
Despite the ability, the injury likely prevents Crosby from changing teams this summer, by way of value, not league rules.
Daniel Schlereth, LHP (AAA)
Schlereth is an interesting piece the Tigers picked up from Arizona in the trade that sent Edwin Jackson to the National League. He sits in the mid-90s and reached 98, but it's the sailing action on the pitch that makes it so difficult to hit, a bit like Roger Clemens in his day, and other relievers such as David Aardsma, Billy Wagner and Jonathan Broxton. His curveball is a true power breaker that can induce the jelly legs.
He could be Detroit's closer of the future if it's not Ryan Perry, and could be a valuable piece to a trade of any kind. I do wonder, though, whether a kid whose dad's nickname is "Stink" has an even worse nickname. I could ask his teammates in Triple-A Toledo, but I'm not sure I want to know the answer -- just in case.
Wilkin Ramirez, OF (AAA)
Despite the repeated words coming out of SI.com and other places on the net, Ramirez cannot play center field regularly in the big leagues. He's more of a Melky Cabrera without the instincts, but is a good athlete with speed and enough arm.
His power at the plate is what gets him noticed, but his approach is poor and he swings and misses a lot, often reaching for breaking balls and chasing fastballs up and out of the zone. He will steal some bags, but only if he can reach base and I'm not sure he can consistently at the big-league level. He's 24 and just about out of time to show such significant development, too, and isn't showing well in Triple-A this season after hitting for power in Double-A.
Others: Daniel Fields, SS; Ryan Strieby, 1B; Cody Satterwhite, RHP; Cale Iorg, SS; Gustavo Nunez, SS.
The Tigers also may need to get a third team involved if they are to contend for Lee, Roy Oswalt, Ben Sheets or any other high profile talent at the trade deadline next month, and may have to settle for Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona as a result. Unless they are willing to add Alex Avila to the package, and then things could get interesting.
Why? Because it's difficult to believe GM Dave Dombrowski would part with the necessary talent to land the star player for half a season, due to the lack of depth in the club's farm system.
6. Philadelphia Phillies
Domonic Brown, RF (AA)
Brown puzzled me in the Fall League. It was my first time seeing him live and while I'd heard the reports and seen the numbers, I didn't get why he was such a well-admired young player. The athletic ability is glaring but even his BP sessions weren't anything to write home about.
But here he is again putting up numbers, thanks to average or better tools across the board. He's already showing plus power and should get better defensively. His arm is at least a 60 or 65 and he runs well, despite his size at 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds.
He's just 22 and could develop into a star if he polishes off his skills over the next three-plus months. He's not going anywhere in a deal unless it's for a long-term answer at a position the Phillies lack, and he's slated to replace Jayson Werth in 2011 as the veteran bolts via free agency.
Jarred Cosart, RHP (A)
Cosart is the reason Philly was more than willing, in the end, to give up Kyle Drabek in trade over the winter and Jason Knapp during the summer. Cosart's velocity spiked in '09 -- up to 96 -- and was hitting 95 regularly this past spring before reporting to Class-A Lakewood where he's dominating, earning him a spot in the Futures Game next month.
His curveball is of the 12-6 variety and flashes as a potential out pitch, but he's yet to find a feel for a changeup, something he'll continue to work on as the 20-year-old moves through the system. He profiles as a potential No. 1, so the chances he's sent out in a deal this July are probably zero, too.
Sebastian Valle, C (A)
After dealing away Travis D'Arnaud in the Roy Halladay deal, the Phillies are left with Valle as their top catching prospect. In terms of talent, there's not much wrong with that, but the Mexico native is just 19 and at least three years from the big leagues, most likely four or five.
He does have above-average power potential, thanks to good bat speed and strength, and he's already shown he can go the other way for extra-base power. He's raw behind the dish, however, and has merely average arm strength relative to the position.
Antonio Bastardo, LHP (AAA, MLB)
Bastardo offers an above-average fastball as a starter, and it does tick up a bit in relief, where the Phillies have used him in stints the past two years. He's flashed an out-pitch slider, and his changeuo is useful at present.
The left-hander is 24 and at 5-foot-11 is most likely a reliever, but has No. 4 or 5 starter ability. He may lack durability and in-game endurance, but the biggest question is his shoulder, which has been a problem on and off for two seasons.
Even as a situational lefty, there's value in Bastardo as a third piece of a trade package.
Domingo Santana, OF (SS-A)
Santana is a little bit like former Phillies prospect Michael Taylor -- a big guy at 6-foot-5 and over 200 pounds, but one that can run -- Santana is even faster than Taylor, thanks in part to 30-plus fewer pounds.
There's big, raw power in his right-handed swing, and at 17 years of age is performing versus much older and more experienced competition. His swing is long, but there's bat speed there and he has a good idea what he's doing at the plate. As he fills out and gains experience, he could profile well in right field with his plus arm and athleticism.
Others: Trevor May, RHP; Juan Ramirez, RHP; Anthony Hewitt, OF.
For Philadelphia to reacquire Lee they would certainly have to give up more than they received for him in the first place, and without Brown or Cosart or major pieces off the 25-man roster, they'll likely need to get a third team involved to make it work.
7. Boston Red Sox
Casey Kelly, RHP/Jose Iglesias, SS (AA)
Kelly and Iglesias are the two untouchables when it comes to dealing for a rental player this summer, but should Lee agree to an extension pre-trade -- more possible in Boston and with the Yankees than anywhere else -- one of these two could be in play, I suppose.
Kelly is a potential future ace, and Iglesias is the club's future at shortstop. I wasn't overly impressed with Iglesias at the plate in the Fall League, but he can certainly field the position, and the general consensus is that he'll hit enough to warrant an everyday role since he projects to make contact with gap power.
Lars Anderson, 1B (AA, AAA)
Anderson isn't blocked in Boston, but it's not because Kevin Youkilis can just slide over to third base -- because he really can't anymore, not for the long term -- he's a first baseman. But with David Ortiz's career in beantown coming near an end, Anderson can always share 1B and DH with Youkilis.
After a bad 2009, Anderson rebounded to hit .355/.408/.677 at Double-A Portland, but has struggled in Pawtucket. The 23-year-old has plus power due to a power swing made possible by the swing path and leverage. His plate skills are above-average, which bodes well for his future, but he probably should stop messing with his swing when he struggles. He gets to any strike, thanks to plate coverage and pitch recognition.
He should hit for average and 25-30 homer power at his peak - perhaps more - and can handle first base, though he's far from a plus defender.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (A+, AA)
Rizzos probability may surpass Anderson's, as he's trending up -- both in 2009 and throughout 2010, despite poor batting averages at both stops this season. He's now in Double-A Portland at 20 years of age and profiles to hit for above-average power, maybe up into the mid-20s.
His approach could use some refining, however, but there's time for that.
ESPN Insider's Keith Law wrote this past winter that Rizzo has a "very easy stroke that generates line drives to all fields," and that he "has to work on getting himself into better counts where he can stay back and drive the ball."
He's a plus defender at first and with another hiccup from Anderson could surpass him for good later this season or next.
Stolmy Pimentel, RHP (A+)
Pimentel is having a solid season in the Carolina League at age 20, using his 88-92 mph four-seamer, cutter and advanced changeup to win battles in a league full of 21-23 year olds. His overhand curveball flashes as a plus pitch and could be a true strikeout offering in the future. He was named as one of the Red Sox representatives in the Futures Game next month.
Others: Junichi Tazawa, RHP; Josh Reddick, LF; Ryan Kalish, LF; Ryan Westmoreland, LF; Michael Bowden, RHP.
Boston's interest in renting Lee may hinder upon a few things, including the M's hanging on to Lee until the week of July 31 -- which I believe is highly unlikely.
Josh Beckett is due back soon, and if he shows he's healthy, Seattle probably won't receive a serious sniff from the Red Sox, who also got Daisuke Matsuzaka back this week. But if Beckett can't shake the back problem or the Sox suffer another injury to their rotation, they could be in play for starting pitching.
Otherwise, they'll poke their nose in to drive up the price, especially if the Yankees are in on Lee, but nothing more.
8. New York Yankees
Austin Romine, C (AA)
Romine is the Yankees best catching prospect, despite being more than a year away from the big leagues. He'll need to improve in all areas to keep that title and eventually replace Jorge Posada - or Francisco Cervelli - but there are signs that he'll handle the position well and produce at the plate.
He's just 21, but having another solid season, hitting for average and a little power in Double-A, where he's facing good competition.
Jesus Montero, 1B (AAA)
Montero is struggling in Triple-A Scranton, but he's still considered a potential middle of the order bat with 35-40 homer power potential and enough plate skills to hit .270 or better with solid on-base production. He could be the Yankees answer at DH next season, which would save them cash to go out and offer Lee five or six years and more than $100 million without surpassing their current payroll levels.
Zach McAllister, RHP (AA)
McAllister is more of a No. 3 at best, a potential 200-inning arm with ground ball tendencies. He's a four-pitch right-hander with size 6-foot-6 and solid control. His slider is above average and his curveball and change both show-me pitches at this stage help offset his sinking fastball at 88-92 mph and the slider in the 82-84 mph range.
Others: Gary Sanchez, C; Jeremy Bleich, LHP; Andrew Brackman, RHP; J.R. Murphy, C; Manny Banuelos, LHP.
The Yankees have made it known through the media and their unwillingness to talk much about making trades this summer that they'd prefer to sign Lee over the winter over giving up young talent to get him now with no guarantee that he stays beyond this season.
Besides, with Phil Hughes throwing well, Javier Vazquez holding down the No. 4 spot in the rotation, veteran Andy Pettitte having a good year and CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett firmly atop the starting five, there isn't a glaring need for another starter right now and it may not make much sense to spend assets on a strength when there are areas that need to be improved.
An injury to one of the startsr changes everything, but there's a good chance the Yankees would target a much less expensive deal to fill the hole, even if Sabathia's size 17s were the shoes to fill.
If Boston or the Yankees wanted to rank much higher on this list, they certainly could, and if the Braves wanted to spend some of their farm system on Lee, they could get involved, too. But the Yankees and Red Sox interest to date is very preliminary, and the Braves are apparently in protection mode when it comes to their young talent.
I have also heard that Tampa Bay is not interested in renting Lee, nor are they in the mood to trade off their top prospects, either.
the-cliff-lee-contenders-and-their-assets
Comments
The following 25 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Blowgun7 on 06-25-2010 23:49:12 Do a deal with Texas. They just have so many good prospects I would imagine they would be a little more open to dealing off some guys. Give me Profar and a couple of those upside arms and I'd be happy. I wouldn't even talk to the Mets unless Mejia or Flores headlined the deal. The rest of their stuff doesn't interest me at all. Same with the Twins and Ramos, since they would never give up Hicks. Dodgers are the only other team on that list that could put something interesting together and may be desperate enough to give up a little more. I know these GMs like to get 3-4 guys in trades for guys like Lee. However, why not take 1-2 guys if you can get a Mejia, Ramos, or Gordon? Why not take the top level prospect who you know has a solid chance to be an impact major leaguer, and another B level guy as opposed to a bulk package of B+ and B guys? |
| 2. By: The Great Pumpkin on 06-26-2010 00:07:52 How well does Nick Franklin compare to Profar, Tejada, and Gordon? I would love to see the M's send Lee to the Yanks for Montero. Would the threat of the Red Sox trading and signing Lee long-term make the Yanks more willing to part with him? How would his bat profile at SafeCo? And is there any chance he sticks at C? |
| 3. By: Blowgun7 on 06-26-2010 00:13:46 Gordon>Franklin>Profar>Tejada IMO Franklin over Profar simply because he's having success in a higher league and both are very young. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-26-2010 01:57:15 It's Gordon and a three-way tie for third, but Profar has the biggest upside. |
| 5. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-26-2010 02:06:04 Great article, Jason. My new favorite one of the year. I look through all these scenarios, and none really stimulate the fancy. There seems to be a real dearth of bats that a team is willing to give up that are ready to make major-league contributions....and which ones are, all seem to come with a glaring weakness or two. No such drought on A-ball talents, though. I admit it's Texas that has me intrigued the most right now. In your opinion, is Jurickson Profar THAT good of a talent? So good that he should become the centerpiece of your return for Lee, and not 1-to-2 AAA "blocked by a big leaguer" bats? How excited should a fan be to find that Profar is Mariner property? Is he worth foregoing players/answers for the 2011 squad? I don't think Cliff Lee alone could quite command a package of Chris Davis, Saltalamacchia and Profar...but do we have anything else to add on from our side to make that deal? Like David Aardsma? The Rangers have needs in their bullpen like they always do... Lee/Aardsma for Davis/Saltalamacchia/Profar. Does it get done, and would we want it to be done? I'm throwing that package out there going on the idea that 1B and C are the weakest areas we have right now at the higher org-levels, and addressing it through a Lee trade is what Zduriencik will want to do, if he can. |
| 6. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-26-2010 02:10:49 I have also heard that Tampa Bay is not interested in renting Lee, nor are they in the mood to trade off their top prospects, either. They never are. It's baseball's equivalent of pulling your own teeth, trying to get the Rays to trade young talent they haven't soured on. |
| 7. By: slick on 06-26-2010 02:17:41 I hear that the Mets are looking for a setup man as well we have Aardsma. Mejia is back in AA starting so that opens a hole. I wonder by adding Aardsma we could sweeten the deal enough to get Flores. Something like Lee and Aardsma for Flores Parnell Familia and Tejada. or something close to that. Also I would not be surprised if we got a third team involved. |
| 8. By: Fireballer55 on 06-26-2010 02:26:04 Hey Jason, I get that Texas doesn't want to include Smoak in a trade. But Im wondering if we can't figure out a way, he seems like a long term answer. I have read(correct me if Im wrong) that he is a good defensive first baseman and we all know about his plate skills and power. All while being cheap and controlled for 5.5 more years. I do believe that Texas wants Lee or another true front line pitcher. But I dont see any other front line pitcher they could get. With Oswalt and Harren being under contract beyond this year and the recent ruling eliminating them. What do you think of a package such as Lee and DA to texas for Smoak, Profar, and an A level prospect and Rich Harden? We get the Power bat at a position of need, a couple future prospects and Harden, who maybe we can fix. And texas gets a top pitcher, a solid/good relief pitcher and a pair of 15-60 picks next year and salary relief from Harden. I know I could be way off, but I think its a decent deal. |
| 9. By: shortstop9 on 06-26-2010 03:03:46 I think if we could get Ramos and Slowey and Danny Valencia in the same package from the Twins you need to take that.The Mets have everything but the Catcher. I would take 3 of Pagan/Martinez Mejia/Niese Havens/Tejada. Dont think the Yanks will get involved but the sox have some interesting players in Westmorland and Inglesias. |
| 10. By: 200tang on 06-26-2010 04:31:36 That deal would never happen Fireballer55. They wouldn't even give up Smoak for Lee & DA alone, let alone Profar, ANOTHER prospect AND Rich Harden. |
| 11. By: malcontent1 on 06-26-2010 05:30:10 Wow, that was a lot of content, I was wondering if the White Sox have any interest/possibility of trading for Lee? And also, though he would only be a throw in, is Brock Peterson in the Twins AAA affiliate worth a second glance or is his June the product of repeated seasons with Rochester? |
| 12. By: AntsInIn on 06-26-2010 09:58:43 This is an amazing article Jason, a veritable clearinghouse of information once rumors of actual offers begin to emerge. Random, possibly crazy, idea, but could Z use Lee and get a 3 way swing going for Prince Fielder? |
| 13. By: safecochatter on 06-26-2010 10:44:16 wouldn't Brennan Boesch from the Tigers be a good piece. all he's done since he got to the show is hit and then hit some more. 40 rbi in 51 games is better than any Mariner is doing. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-26-2010 11:15:15 Boesch is going nowhere -- they love him, probably more than they should, and he's on fire right now. shortstop 9, Westmoreland is not going to be traded with what he's been through and is going through right now -- for so many reasons. fireballer, Figure out a way? Sure, send them Felix. Smoak is their long-term 1B. Send them some long-term, impact answer at another position and they'll consider it, I'm sure. Otherwise, forget it. |
| 15. By: Galway on 06-26-2010 12:25:25 Jason great post, thank you. The Met prospects are simply overrated which is par for the course. I like trading with Texas or for Ramos from the Twins, but Ramos for a rental may be tough. In your opninion how comfortable is Z not trading Lee? The draft is solid next year, and there's always the lotto ticket chance of re-signing in the offseason. Would the Reds have any interest? They tend to not be big on rentals. |
| 16. By: FWBrodie on 06-26-2010 12:55:10 Wow Churchill, bravo. Quite possibly the greatest pre-deadline article of all time. Great work. Very obvious how much research and legwork went into this. Thank you. |
| 17. By: xarmyguy78 on 06-26-2010 14:41:50 Jason Just curious if the Angels (thinking the Rangers are in strong contention for Lee) would enter the bidding for him? Does the Angels farm system have any interesting parts? |
| 18. By: mr_blank on 06-26-2010 19:26:27 Great article. I noticed there is no mention of Ike Davis in the Mets' trade candidates...is he considered THAT untouchable? I've read in various reports that Davis profiles as a legitimate 35-40 homer left-handed bat. I know currently he's the regular cleanup man and 1B for the Mets, but do you think there is anyway a deal can get done for him? |
| 19. By: Galway on 06-26-2010 19:56:04 Ike Davis is not a 40 homer guy. He's a solid player, but his power is more for doubles. He'll hit a fair amount 22 - 25 but his value will be as a solid rbi guy who hits doubles. He's not untouchable, but he has been reliable and first base this year has been a mess prior to Ike so they will not be eager to create a hole that they have not filled without Ike. |
| 20. By: Blowgun7 on 06-26-2010 19:59:21 Ike Davis is definately untouchable if you are talking about a Cliff Lee deal. |
| 21. By: rotoenquire on 06-27-2010 01:16:18 Lee is not going anyplace unless someone overpays.... The Branyan Deal comfirms that... |
| 22. By: baseballman on 06-28-2010 11:05:03 Awesome write up |
| 23. By: Daveheart on 06-28-2010 15:26:57 I'm very familiar with the Ranger's system from top to bottom, so I'll comment on some of those players if you're indulge me. First of all, there's enough out there about Scheppers, so I'll start with Chris Davis. He hasn't had much success at the major league level yet, but there are some reasons for hope. First of all, having seen every game he played in the majors and even a few at AA/AAA, he is not a below average defensive firstbaseman. Scoring and defensive metrics are a complete crapshoot when it comes to evaluating defense at 1B. It's wise to ignore UZR, +/-, RngR, and most other defensive metrics for that position and evaluate with your eyes. Davis has a decent reach and very flexible (routinely doing the splits to stretch for a pick). He's also got some decent instincts with useful athleticism for the position. I've seen him turn plenty of doubles/triples into outs, and I've even seen him get up pretty high to snag a line drive. Right now Chris Davis is definitely the better defender between him and Smoak (he's also playing some third in AAA and getting better--still a poor 3B though). As far as the bat goes for Chris Davis, that is certainly where he starts to fall flat. Last season he sported a .238/.284/.442 line in 113 games. In only 15 games this year he hit .188/.264/.292. However, here's a more complete breakdown: 2008: .285/.331/.549 (80 games) 1st half 2009: .202/.256/.415 (258 AB) 2nd half 2009: .308/.338/.496 (133 AB) 2010 (MLB): .188/.264/.292 (15 games) 2008 AAA: .333/.402/.685 (31 games) 2009 AAA: .327/.418/.521 (44 games) 2010 AAA: .336/.388/.520 (58 games) He's not the most promising prospect out there, but there should be some hope that he could turn it around. If I were picking players out of the Rangers' system, I would buy low on him and get more from the other players instead of pursuing Smoak and receiving a bag of nothing elsewhere in the deal. Profar is a great talent. I would try to get him in any deal. Most teams wanted to sign him as a pitcher, but he profiles well as a shortstop. Jason Parks of BBTiA.com did a profile on him recently and he'll likely have zero below average tools and several that are solidly above average. http://www.bbtia.com/home/2010/6/18/highest-ceilings-in-the-rangers-system-jurickson-profar-7.html There's always a chance that he doesn't reach his ceiling, but he has a chance to be better than what the Rangers have in Elvis Andrus. In spring training, he had one of the most mature approaches in the entire organization, taking as many pitches as possible (even in batting practice). Wilmer Font would be a nice pick-up. He's got enough upside to be a frontline starter or a solid setup man or closer. However, the odds are against him. He's displayed slightly better command and control this year, but has been extremely shaky in the past. Even this season he's been up and down. Blake Beavan is a pitcher with far less upside but a much higher chance of realizing his potential. He's posted 10 straight quality starts in AA, and is top 5 in the Texas League in most of the pitching stats. He's a command control guy that has a very high probability of becoming a 4th/5th starter who eats 200+ innings every year. He'd be a great pickup especially at Safeco. If I were in Jack Z's position, I'd accept Davis, Profar, Beavan, and I'd want another young arm like Wilfredo Boscan. If John Daniels insisted on the M's also taking Rich Harden's salary, I would change Boscan to Wilmer Font and also ask for Omar Beltre (2.39 ERA in 37.2 AAA innings). |
| 24. By: blackout on 06-30-2010 16:55:37 Re trade pieces, if I'm trading with BOS I might try to get Felix Doubront thrown into the back of the deal. As far as high minors pitching, Doubront and Bowden are likely available via trade. With the Yanks, I think you have to consider Eduardo Nunez a likely target/offering. A true SS who's got good contact ability and developing pop (though forget that in Safeco). If Montero isn't coming over I probably inist on Nunez and Jose Ramirez being included. Ramirez has the best stuff of any of the Yanks young starting prospects and has yet to a allow a home run in 75 IP this year. A deal of Lee for Romine, Nunez, Ramirez and David Phelps might not seem sexy to the casual fan, but would make for a good return imo. The Yanks keep Montero and the M's get some depth. |
| 25. By: ag29588 on 06-30-2010 20:59:52 never confuse the defensive abilities of C Dvayis with those of Smoak ,who is far more advanced as a a defender than C Davis as well as a better bat in the big show.Texas still has plenty of people to make a trade for ANY player. |
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