Prospect Insider - The Cycle

The Cycle

By Chris Crawford

By 03-03-2011

Last year, Prospect Insider gave you the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of the 2010 Mariners season -- with an emphasis on the bad and ugly due to unforeseen awfulness.

This year, we're going to give you something similar, but we've pumped up the creativity volume. We call it "The Cycle," and it will take you on a magical journey through the comings and goings of the baseball season -- taking a look at the happenings of everything from the big league club down to players the Mariners could be targeting in the 2011 draft.

Now that the introduction is out of the way, let's get to the good stuff.

Single
Michael Pineda had a successful first outing, going two innings without allowing a base-runner and striking out one in the Mariners 5-3 loss to Arizona. Reports from Peoria are that Pineda's fastball was in the 94-98 mph range, and the control -- especially for his first outing of the year -- was impressive.

Spring training stats are to be taken with a grain of salt and no matter how well Pineda does, Seattle's most likely course of action will be to have the right-hander start the year in Tacoma. Seeing your best pitching prospect hitting 98 mph on the gun in early March, however, is something to be appreciative of, to say the least.

6-3 groundout
While the statistics do not matter, actual performances -- i.e., command, clean and repeated mechanics, and a polished second pitch -- are often a deciding factor in making the final decisions for the last few players in the bullpen. The M's have a plethora of arms competing to be among the last few members of the 'pen, be it non-roster invites or young prospects trying to break camp with the big club.

For those non-roster players, the results have not been terribly impressive. The Mariners have given up 26 earned runs so far this spring, and 22 of those have been allowed by players competing for bullpen spots. Manny Delcarmen hasn't been able to throw strikes in either of his two appearances, and Justin Miller and Denny Bautista have each been awful.

It's very early, but this was not the start the NRI's -- nor Seattle -- were helping for, and there's no telling how long each arm will be considered due to the number of contenders for the available gig in the relief corps.

Ground-rule double
While the Mariners play their glorified exhibition games in Arizona, the college baseball season has begun and is starting to heat up. While it's possible that Seattle could fall in love with a Bubba Starling or a Francisco Lindor, the odds say that Seattle will take a college player with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2011 draft.

For the most part those candidates have begun the season on a positive note. Rice third basemen Anthony Rendon struggled in his first weekend, but has rebounded nicely -- walking nine times in his last five games and posting an OPS of 1.279 -- and hasn't shown much wear and tear on his surgically repared ankle. There are concerns about his shoulder now, however.

Gerrit Cole, UCLA's ace right-hander, has also put up solid numbers, striking out eleven batters in a complete game shutout versus the University of San Francisco. Early word is that Cole's stuff was not to his normal standards, benefiting greatly from the lack of patience from the opposing hitters. But when a pitcher is not on his game and toss complete-game shutouts, it speaks to how good he really is. He was statistically mediocre in his second outing -- split by two days due to weather -- but the word on the street is that his changeup is flashing as a plus pitch, and that could mean trouble for Rendon and anyone else that has a shot to be the top pick.

It hasn't all been roses for the consensus contenders for the second selection, though. Connecticut outfielder George Springer has struggled early, and reports are that there some mechanical issues that need to be fixed. Vanderbilt right-hander Sonny Gray has also had issues early, walking six batters in his 10 2/3 innings to go along with two hit batters. Gray also struggled with command early last year, so don't get too caught up in the numbers, and only Cole has better stuff of the college pitchers in this year's class.

The results have been mixed, but the two top talents have performed admirably, and there's no reason to expect anything less going forward.

It's a heck of a year to have a selection, this much is for certain.

Play under review
When the Milton Bradley-for-Carlos Silva trade went down, it was celebrated by M's fans throughout, as the team had rid itself of arguably its worst free agent signing ever and acquired a talented -- albeit volatile -- hitter that had/has the potential to hit in the middle of the lineup.

Well, it didn't work out so well in 2010. Bradley was hurt the majority of the season and when he was healthy he hit like ... well, he didn't hit, so he didn't hit like anyone, or at least not anyone good. Meanwhile, Silva had one of his best years, posting the highest strikeout rate (6.37 per 9 innings) and a solid 3.9 xFIP. These numbers aren't $12 million-a-year good, but they were certainly better than the numbers Bradley put up, and most have called the Bradley-Silva trade a loss for GM Jack Zduriencik and the Mariners.

Not so fast, my friend.

If you missed it Wednesday, Silva and Cubs slugger Aramis Ramirez got into a scuffle in the dugout over a rough first inning that featured some less than stellar defense from the third baseman. Silva refused to talk to the media after the game, and Chicago manager Mike Quade held a team meeting to discuss the rumble Thursday.

Now, maybe this was just an isolated incident and Silva will be an ideal teammate. Maybe he'll follow up on last year's numbers and be a solid back-end starter. And maybe Milton Bradley proves again that he's no longer able to be an everyday player and has one of his trademark meltdowns.
There is a chance that one or more of these things happen, and Seattle ultimately loses this trade unequivocally.

But Bradley is still a talented player who would be the team's best hitter if he comes even close to approaching his numbers from the 2008 season, and would be more than useful if he posted a similar OBP to his .378 mark with the Cubs in 2009.

More importantly, even if Silva has the best year of his career and Bradley his worst, the trade can't be viewed a loss because there are certain moves that just have to be made. Silva had warn out his welcome in Seattle and was too much of a distraction to ever be successful, and Bradley was simply too talented to pass up. This is one of the many cases where you judge the process over the result. Last year's results said the Cubs win the trade. I wouldn't count on the same results this year, and the events Wednesday only further support that hypothesis.

Chris Crawford is Prospect Insider's East Coast Senior Scouting Analyst and offers thoughts and insights on all things baseball, including the draft, scouting and player development. Follow him on Twitter at @ChrisCrawfordPI and email him at Crawford@ProspectInsider.com.

the-cycle

Comments
The following 12 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: littlelinny6 on 03-03-2011 16:06:36
Chris,
Bradley has hit well early in the spring and he seems to be healthy. If he continues to hit well, how do you see the playing time divided up among Saunders, Cust, and Bradley at DH/LF. Would Bradley play LF vs. a tough LHP and then get some DH ABs vs. a few RHPs?? While Bradley has the potential to be the Ms best hitter, if it is at the cost of seeing what you have in Saunders I wonder if it is worth it.

2. By: Chris Crawford on 03-03-2011 16:11:04
You don't want to sacrifice Saunders playing time, but you also want to establish some value in Bradley as well. If Bradley can be an .800 OPS guy with no off the field issues, I would expect a contender to take a chance on him (with a significant amount of salary eaten, of course).

As for the now, I would expect Bradley to rotate with Cust and Saunders, with the majority of his playing time coming vs LHP, as you said.

3. By: jgstecker on 03-04-2011 08:33:27
The Milton Bradley trade isn't a loss because of player performance (or lack thereof). It's a loss because it cost the Mariners $9 million more than it would have cost to simply release Silva. How much better would this club look with an extra $5.5 million to spend last offseason?

Bradley could OPS 1.000 this year and his trade value would still be a big fat zero. No team will give up anything of value for him. And even if you can find someone to take on a little bit of his contract, what good does that do us? They can't spend that savings to make the team better. It only pads the club's profits.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-04-2011 10:48:58
The answer? No much better at all.

Adding one $5.5 million player this winter does very little for this organization right now. They need two impact bats and at least one more impact starting pitcher to expect to compete. If you aren't going to compete for the playoffs with that extra $5.5 million, or go from contender to better contender, what's the point?

The M's could have decided to spend $5.5 million more if they wanted to. They chose not to. Why? Because it doesn't make any sense to do it just for the sake of doing it.

Your final paragraph completely contradicts your first one.

The final verdict is likely that the trade is a wash at very best.

5. By: remcg3 on 03-04-2011 11:11:53
Question on spring training. Is there a link that provides a numerical roster for the M's minor leaguers so we can know who we're looking at when we visit the Peoria facility?

6. By: Edman on 03-04-2011 11:39:15
#3, I suggest you look at the history of modern baseball, before you make claims like "No team will give up anything of value for him." That's not at all true. Bradley puts up a 1.000 OPS this year, some team will take a chance on him, if they feel that three months of his bat will help them get to the playoffs. That's just disgruntal fan imposed moral into a financial equation. They don't necessarily have the same meaning.

Why would I care how much money the ownership group puts in their pockets? Would you complain if they got to the World Series on a $50 million payroll? No, you only care when you and other fans think they haven't spent enough. Fans tend to treat all pro sports as if they are publically owned by the community. They are emotional owned by the community, but not financially.

Baseball is a business, first and foremost. It's not a moral compass. It's not a publically owned entity. It's an entertainment company with mass appeal.

Just when you think owners "should" act for the better interest of baseball as a whole, some owner will step out from the ranks and offer an insane contract to one player. So, why wouldn't they trade for Milton Bradley, if they thought he could get them to the playoffs? Fact is, some team will, unless he does something so disgusting that nobody can tolerate it.

7. By: skyway park on 03-04-2011 12:15:32
Jason, The winter before last you mentioned rumblings that Cris Larson was trying to get majority ownership did something backfire that you know about?

8. By: maqman on 03-04-2011 13:13:49
If Bradley and Bedard both regain form this season the M's are going to be more interesting than many currently expect. I realize that's a big IF at this point but I guy can dream right?

9. By: skyway park on 03-04-2011 14:16:11
I was thinking about that this morning. If Bedard could pitch like he did before the injuries I wonder what we could flip him for at the deadline. The chance of that happening though are probably about 5%

10. By: Edman on 03-04-2011 15:59:00
I think that many of you assume too much. There is nothing to say that they would want to ship Bedard out. He could be just as valuable to Seattle as anyone else, especially with their eyes on 2012 and 2013.

It's not always about trading assets. You have to have structure as well.

11. By: Rudolf on 03-04-2011 16:49:40
Dude, you kill me. What if Maqman suggested we ride Bedard all the way to type A/B status? Would we have received a lecture on deadline trades?

12. By: StandinPat on 03-04-2011 17:03:51
"I think that many of you assume too much"

"He could be just as valuable to Seattle as anyone else, especially with their eyes on 2012 and 2013."

And how is even thinking about Bedard A being healthy and B being with the club in 2012 and 2013 not assuming too much?

Bedard is a health risk among health risks. Considering 2011 is a "lost" year, if Bedard is healthy-ish and pitching well near the deadline ofcourse you look at trading him...esp if you have your "eyes on 2012 and 2013."

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