Prospect Insider - The Cycle: The Power Outage

The Cycle: The Power Outage

By Chris Crawford

By 03-11-2011

Last year, Prospect Insider gave you the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of the 2010 Mariners season -- with an emphasis on the bad and ugly due to unforeseen awfulness.

This year, we're going to give you something similar, but we've pumped up the creativity volume. We call it "The Cycle," and it will take you on a magical journey through the comings and goings of the baseball season -- taking a look at the happenings of everything from the big league club down to players the Mariners could be targeting in the 2011 draft.

Bases Loaded Walk
Barring an injury to the current middle infield options, Dustin Ackley isn't likely to make his major-league debut until the summer months -- or at least the spring -- but the early results this month are encouraging. Ackley has walked five times in his 17 plate appearances, helping him achieve a .471 on-base percentage, second only to Jack Wilson for any hitter in camp with more than 10 plate appearances.

The concern with Ackley has never lied with his ability to get on base, but rather on the defensive side and power abilities. The facts still show that the top prospect in the system is getting on base 47 percent of the time against some of the best competition he's seen. If Ackley can do this for the entire spring, he just might force the Mariners -- mainly GM Jack Zduriencik -- to make a difficult decision.

Warning Track Power
Last year, Seattle was last in close to every offensive statistic that matters, and the power numbers were no exception. The Mariners hit 101 home runs last season as a team, eight behind the anemic Oakland A's offense -- a large reason why the club had a lower slugging percentage than the Yankees on-base percentage (think about that for a second, and continue).

So far, the M's have hit 10 home runs, but that doesn't really tell the story. Carlos Peguero, Alex Liddi, Steven Baron, Johermyn Chavez and Greg Halman have all gone deep this spring, accounting for 60 percent of the team total. With all due respect to this list -- not one stands a chance of making the big-league roster, and only Halman stands much of a chance to receive anything more than a September cup of coffee at this point.

The other three were hit by Jack Cust, Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson. Again, with all due respect, Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson are going to have to hope an awful lot of outfielders fall down to reach more than low double-digit homer totals.

Obviously, the spring numbers are also skewed due to playing time limits and the fact that kids are getting extra time, veterans are working off the rust and trying out new things. But it would still be nice to see some of the regulars get into the swing of things, sooner than later.

Ground ball Off the Plate
As we talked about earlier, this is a very important year for Michael Saunders. He turned 24 in November, and this will be his third tour of major-league duty, so time is running out. Unfortunately, the early returns are not good. Saunders is hitting a just .150, and hasn't had an extra-base hit this spring. These numbers are disappointing, but arguably the most concerning thing has been Saunders' lack of contact. Through 23 plate appearances, Saunders has struck out eight times -- close to a 33 percent clip.

The positives -- if there are any positives to take away from it all right now -- are two-fold. First, it's March 10, and it can't get much worse. Second, the twenty at-bats are tied for the team lead, and with the amount of outfielders in camp right now, it appears that the Mariners are either giving Saunders every chance to showcase his ability -- or are showcasing him for other teams to ogle. Either way, the M's appear intent on finding out what kind of player Saunders is. Here's hoping he's the player many think he can be.

Chris Crawford is Prospect Insider's East Coast Senior Scouting Analyst and offers thoughts and insights on all things baseball, including the draft, scouting and player development. Follow him on Twitter at @ChrisCrawfordPI and email him at Crawford@ProspectInsider.com.

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Comments
The following 16 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: maqman on 03-11-2011 13:49:22
It's starting to look like Saunders could go back to Tacoma, especially if Bradley keeps his act together. It is also nice to see some dingers from the farm hands, even if they won't be seen at The Safe this year.

2. By: MoneyMike on 03-11-2011 17:05:12
Chris,

While I understand all of the talk of Saunders and LF, when do I start worrying about what Smoak is doing (or not doing) this spring?

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-11-2011 17:33:14
Never is the answer, MoneyMike.

If he swoons through May and June like he is this spring, then you start to worry, and I'm sure the M's will, too.

4. By: 11records on 03-11-2011 18:02:22
Does it seem like Matt Tuiasosopo and Mike Morse hit .450 every spring??

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-11-2011 18:58:12
No.

6. By: MoneyMike on 03-11-2011 19:00:52
Thanks Jason. I should have known better than to stray too far from PI. Comments by idiots over on Baker's blog are trying to make the argument that Liddi>Smoak and should be handed the 1b job while Smoak heads back to Tacoma...yikes.

7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-11-2011 19:28:43
Liddi might outperform Smoak in 2011. But he's not capable of the kind of offense necessary at first base, nor can he play third regularly on a good team.

8. By: rjfrik on 03-12-2011 12:50:32
Keith Law has an interesting new piece on who the clear cut number one pick in the draft should be, in which he says the player compares to Strasburg. That player is Cole of course.

Personally I love sitting at two in this draft. We either get a pitcher who is like Strasburg or a third basemen who is like Longoria.

How sweet.

The more this season plays on the more I think Rendon will be an M.

Ackley
Rendon
Smoak

Your 2,3,4 hitters. Sure!!

9. By: maqman on 03-12-2011 13:34:37
I'm thinking the same thing rjfrik but Cole might be a better choice. He's looking pretty good so far this season.

10. By: cdiggins@whidbey.com on 03-12-2011 13:51:20
Yeah...and Strasburg is on the 60 day DL and Rendon has history of ankle injuries and now a shoulder problem. I don't like taking a pitcher this high. It seems they don't often pan out....and position players don't always either...but I like the chances of a position player more than a pitcher.

It seems like Ackley is a sure thing at this point. That is a relief. I don't think we should draft Rendon because of his injury history

11. By: Marco on 03-12-2011 17:52:29
Everybody knew Liddi had no chance to make the big club. I'm just glad it's official now he's assigned to Tacoma for a very challenging season and more development. As always been in the past Liddi's future is in his own hands since words remain just words while facts on the playing field are what count. Good luck to everybody !

12. By: Edman on 03-12-2011 17:58:05
#10, I don't think highly drafted pitchers are any greater risk than position players, they just get more visibility. You take the best player, period. If a pitcher blows out an arm, so be it. But, if he doesn't, and he's clearly more talented than any other pitcher in the draft, you take him.

Either way, Seattle should get someone who could be a difference maker. There is no guarantee, but a higher probability that they will.

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-12-2011 18:36:51
I think the attrition rate proves any opinion against your theory wrong, Edman. Pitchers are inherently riskier than position players. They just are.

But there's no reason to draft or not draft a player based on that -- as you also stated.

14. By: StandinPat on 03-12-2011 19:06:44
#10, So in essence we should eliminate the consensus top 2 talents from consideration?

15. By: rotoenquire on 03-12-2011 23:59:36
Not to move off topic, but Yahoo had an article out today saying Ichiro does not know if his family is safe? Jason have you heard anything about this? I hope it is a Yahoo usual mess up. If not I hope ichiro finds them safe..

16. By: Docmilo on 03-16-2011 13:21:52
Just curious. All the talk has been about what Ackley has to do to make the big club. My question is Kennedy and Josh Wilson. Why are these guys shoe-ins? Sure, it's spring training and sample sizes are small. But, do the M's really want to break camp with these two if their offense is so terrible?

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