| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-20-2010 |
The Seattle Mariners were one of between 10 and 15 teams that watched right-hander Ben Sheets throw on Tuesday -- video here, courtesy of MLB.com -- and M's scout John Stearns was quoted with this little nugget:
"I was impressed. Ben was free and easy, throwing the ball really well with not too much effort. He had good velocity. I was especially impressed with his curve ball. He's got a plus Major League curve ball with a lot of depth to it."
Sheets sat in the 90-91 range, topping out at 92 with the not-so-special curve ball, but it may take a little time to shake off the rust for the bite on the breaking ball, especially since the less-than-TJ-style elbow surgery he had impacts that directly.
Just the fact that the M's were there confirms some level of interest, but whether the M's will be able and willing to go to the $8-10 million mark -- some saying "at least $10 million," even -- in guaranteed money, plus a player option is something I just don't know, but I also don't see Seattle doing.
Perhaps the lower edge of the guaranteed scale might work (though still it may be too rich, and not a smart move) but the player option is the kicker for me.
Anyway, it seems they aren't signing Jarrod Washburn until they know Sheets isn't an option. Maybe now they know -- one way or the other.
the-mariners-and-ben-sheets
Comments
The following 43 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: petermag on 01-20-2010 11:50:12 Jason, A couple questions: 1. Why would a scout give away the fact that he thought he looked good. isnt this lost leverage in negotiating? 2. If Sheets does sign a 1 year deal and has a lights out year, does he jump into a type B or even A at the end of 2010? If that is the case, then im willing to overpay for him. Finally, i really think based on all these reports that sheets may be healthy. A rotation of Felix/Frickin Lee/Sheets/RRS/whoever is down right amazing. I would cry Jason. I would start weeping tears of Joy. Yes, Harang and others are a good backup plan. But to have those 3 at the top of the rotation ESPECIALLY if Sheets really is healthy and wanting to prove his value on the FA market. Amazing. Please, let us sign sheets (if healthy) |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-20-2010 12:01:58 1. No, it's really not. You're either willing to sign him for what it will take or you aren't. If it was their own player, such as during arbitration negotiations, then yes. 2. Not sure, but I'd best yes. That system's process hurts players more for performing poorly than not performing at all, so... You are right. It's important that as fans we know that Sheets did not have TJ surgery, nor labrum surgery. He had elbow flexor tendon surgery, one that Joel Pineiro had years ago and was throwing just as hard once fully recovered as he was just prior to the injury, and certainly got his command back, too. |
| 3. By: marinermanmatt on 01-20-2010 12:09:56 Jason, do you have any guesses at the odds we end up signing him, based on what you've heard. And do you think that signing sheets is the best move we can make at this point given that it seems we have exhausted most other options? |
| 4. By: mymrbig on 01-20-2010 12:17:47 I think how you view Sheets' velocity depends entirely on where he is in his pre-season workouts and how much effort he was putting into his throws. I don't know how forthcoming he has been, but if he is just getting on a mound and stands to gain a little more velocity (like most pitchers when they show up for spring training), then him sitting at 90-91 and touching 92 is good news. But if he has been on a mound for a few months and considers himself to be in game-day form (i.e. end of spring training), then 90-91 is very worrisome. Also, it depends on the effort with which he was throwing. I'd compare his video from yesterday to some in-game video from 2007 or 2008 to make sure he didn't look like he was throwing with any additional effort. Not a good sign if he is trying to throw the ball through a brick wall to impress scouts and can't break 92. (Didn't look like that to me from the video, but I'm not a scout and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night). FYI, Sheets' average velocity according to fangraphs ranged from 92.6 to 93.3 from 2004-2008. |
| 5. By: brianc1279 on 01-20-2010 12:24:27 If we signed Sheets who would we take off the 40 man roster in order to fit him on the team? |
| 6. By: mazono on 01-20-2010 13:16:34 I like the last sentence in that article ( I would copy and paste but I don't my iPod touch doesn't do that). I think we have the upper hand on any other team with a good club house chemistry. It always come down to the money. I hope we get Sheets or Harrang. I am not digging another year listening to Dave Simms talk about "washburn and flipper" |
| 7. By: Edman on 01-20-2010 13:22:23 I'm not sure what it would take to get Sheets here, but two of the things he mentioned that he was looking for in a team was winning and having a family atmosphere. Specifically, he mentioned being able to bring his kids into the clubhouse. If Griffey's return has done anything, it's to demonstrate to all of baseball that this is a clubhouse that you'd want to be around. And honestly, Seattle and the Puget Sound is one of the most beautiful areas in the country. Add his familiarity with Jack, and I'd think that Seattle is at least near the top of his list. There's going to be a lot of competition for his services. I'm not going to get overly excited, but it gives me hope that we're in the running. |
| 8. By: Edman on 01-20-2010 13:28:04 An added note, I'd love for Seattle to sign Sheets, and drive the stake into the Angels' heart, just a bit deeper. They have had a miserable off-season. Too many big fish have gotten away from them. Add Sheets to the rotation, and maybe we can sacrifice a few of those F'ing rally monkeys......God I hate them. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-20-2010 13:32:11 I think there's a chance, but I still don't feel confident that Seattle would guarantee him $10 million for 2010. mymrbig, His delivery was fluid, and most important appeared to be done with the same effort as in 2008 prior to the injury. But no, you didn't miss anything, it was a nice workout for him, and probably convinced a lot of clubs there that he's ready to go. I know of one in particular. marinermanmatt, yes, I think Sheets is the best FA they could sign at this stage. Hudson would be nice, too. As for the 40-man, does it matter? It's not going to be someone we miss. But I'd guess Gaby Hernandez or Edward Paredes. |
| 10. By: Willmore on 01-20-2010 13:40:57 Jason, is there a scouting explanation to his pitch value stats? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=710&position=P He went from a dominant curve in 2003-2005, to a below average one 2007-2008. Was that injury related? If so, is it possible to judge which Ben Sheets we get - the 07-08 one or the 03-05 one? His velocity is pretty much there, minus 0.5-1 mph which is within the normal deviations from day to day. Also, what do you make of the "looked gassed" line in the article? Is it pretty much normal this time of the off-season, or is it a red-flag, considering the guy has been rehabbing and working out since the surgery. |
| 11. By: mymrbig on 01-20-2010 13:52:19 My take on the "looked gassed" line means he's in early spring training shape. There is a reason pitchers only throw 1-2 innings early in spring training, then work their way up. Sheets probably hasn't builg up the strength/endurance yet to hold his velocity through 60 pitches. This actually makes me feel a little better about him sitting at 90-91, since you expect a little more mound time and a little more adrenalin will in all likelihood get his fastball to the 92-93 range he is accustomed to. Oh yeah, and Willmore, I know you probably don't care about my opinion and wanted Churchill's. But my name is Jason too. Can't help you with the less dominant curve though. |
| 12. By: Adam T on 01-20-2010 14:17:01 I would think the Harden deal would be a good comp for Sheets. Although he has a better track record pre-2009, the fact is that while Harden pitched last year, Sheets did not. I'd offer a deal like Harden's, but $10 million-plus guaranteed? Nah. |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-20-2010 15:07:18 Of course he was gassed. It's January and he's been throwing more than doing cardio. No reason to look into that as any indication of anything. I mean, what could being tired and out of shape mean? That he's tired and out of shape? |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-20-2010 15:28:46 Adam, Sheets has a few advantages over Harden: 1. He's never had continuous arm issues (the flexor tendon surgery is the only arm injury in his career) where Harden has, and regularly. You can pretty much count on Harden missing time. 2. He has a track record of being a horse, something Harden's injuries have prevented him from establishing. 3. He's had a whole year off since surgery -- he could be back by now even if he had TJ surgery, which he did NOT, instead having a far less serious surgery. Good chance his arm is as fresh as a 31-year-old's can be. He CHOSE not to pitch last summer, because there wasn't a contending team that was a fit. He instead chose to use the time to get his arm into the best shape he possibly could so this winter he'd be ready to show teams where he's at. So while you can say, and could be correct in doing so, that you don't think guaranteeing Sheets $10 million is a good idea, comparing him to Harden doesn't work. |
| 15. By: SKearney on 01-20-2010 16:27:31 If we sign Sheets and he's healthy, we will dominate AL West and set us up for a playoff run. |
| 16. By: rjfrik on 01-20-2010 17:43:54 Personally I would give him around 10 million a year and even 2 years guaranteed. You can't look at this as not only this year, but I would be looking at it as next year as well. There is a very good chance that Lee is gone after this year, so basically what you are doing is setting yourself up for a playoff run this year by having the best 1-3 in baseball and setting yourself up next year to have a number 2 pitcher fill the number 2 hole the Lee leaves. Basically Jack should be on the phone with Ben informing him if he really wants to create value for himself after this short contract this is the place to pitch. You will have the best defense in baseball behind you while you pitch in a pitchers park. He will dominate. Plus if family atmosphere is what you want there isn't a better place to live or a better clubhouse to be a part of. We need to make the hard sell. This isn't just about this year, it should be about the next couple of years. If we do land him. We will be a feared playoff opponent. Basically an "old school" team that beats you with, pitching, defense and small ball. Reminds me of the Jets this year, beating teams with the "old school" mentality of running the football and defense. |
| 17. By: FWBrodie on 01-20-2010 18:00:21 I think the M's need to go balls to the wall after Sheets. If the Mariners were playing the Angels in an offseason-moves version of Mortal Kombat we've already hear "Finish him!" and Ben Sheets is the sweetest fatality move in the game. At some point, don't you think it becomes justifiable to overpay a bit when the significance of the move is higher (that significance being that the Mariners become clear favorites to win the division)? |
| 18. By: Adam T on 01-20-2010 18:18:22 Sheets hasn't hit 200 IP since 2004 (he did come close in 2008, getting up to 198). I don't think he has that "horse" reputation any more. That, plus the fact that he is coming off a surgery, and his age, makes his value drop. Harden isn't necessarily a great comp, but in a market where Harden gets $7.5 guaranteed, Sheets should at best be in the same neighborhood. We'll see... |
| 19. By: banton on 01-20-2010 18:28:31 rjfrick & FWBrodie- It makes me nervous when people start saying that we will a "feared playoff opponent" and that it is smart to overpay. This is a business; our smart FO is not going to purposely overpay, in either $$ and years, just because we, before the season begins, look better on paper than the competition. If Sheets, or any other SP, comes here it will be because they offer relative value for the cost, nothing else. Best that we play 82 games before we start worrying about what we will look like in the playoffs. |
| 20. By: PositivePaul on 01-20-2010 18:47:58 I completely suck at math and in general I hate spending big bucks on risky pitchers. But after doing some calculations, I think that if it boils down to picking any one (or combination of) of the remaining FA position players or Ben Sheets, I'd take the risk on Sheets in pretty much a landslide. Affirming that Zduriencik clearly has other options for acquiring talent other than the FA pool, and also acknowledging the risk that pitchers in general and Sheets specifically bears, I still think he'd be the best remaining acquisition the team could make. To make a long story short, I'll summarize by saying that the potential upgrade over what Sheets would replace is much, much larger than the upgrade over what, say, replacing Jose Lopez with Orlando Hudson would bring. Having 3 workhorse aces (again, assuming Sheets is healthy enough to throw 190+ innings) like the M's would have hasn't happened in baseball since the days of Smolts/Glavine/Maddux. And even then, it's entirely possible that Felix/Lee/Sheets could be better than that trio. Hell yeah, I'd offer him 8 million guaranteed with incentives to bring up the total. And add a mutual option for 2011... |
| 21. By: Edman on 01-20-2010 20:03:00 As much as I'd love Sheets in the rotation, there has to be a certain amount of restraint applied. The idea that we should pay anything it takes to get him, is how mistakes like signing Silva are made. Bavasi thought he was getting an inning eater. Little did he know he was simply an eater (tongue in cheek). I don't think it's a good idea to hand over a guaranteed $20 million for two years of Sheets. He looks healthy, and I hope he is. But, a healthy Joel Piniero just signed for roughly $8 million a year. So, to pay Sheets $10 million a year, with his question marks, isn't smart financially. Someone might. The Mets have proven time and time again that they're capable of bad decisions. Of course, they also have plenty of money, if they're wrong. I want Seattle to make a strong run for Sheets. But, I don't want them to be willing to do anything for a guy who's got questions remaining. In Jack we trust. |
| 22. By: Willmore on 01-20-2010 20:44:51 Crazy thought disclaimer. Jamie Moyer is still not a bad pitcher. He's pretty much average to slightly below average. His xFIP has been in the 4.25-4.86 range since 2002 and last year it was 4.74. In Safeco, with our defense and Jamie's ability to pitch to contact, he could easily outperform our current plans for 4-5 starter. His contract for '10, I believe, is 7.5 mil, which the Phillies will probably gladly give away practically for free and might either send over a few low level prospects or cash to sweeten the deal. The Mariners get a farewell tour of Moyer+Griffey (read $$$), another veteran presence in the clubhouse etc. etc. We might even kill two birds with one stone and get someone like a Ben Francisco in the deal, as that righty part time outfielder, if we add something to the mix. Anyway, just a thought. |
| 23. By: Jackson on 01-20-2010 20:54:18 I doubt there's much money to be made in a Jamie Moyer farewell tour. |
| 24. By: DRWheelock on 01-20-2010 21:34:06 Jason - I've been wondering all offseason where the hell Seattle's offense is going to come from this year. Well guess what? We don't have to worry any longer...Angels just signed Joel Piniero and brought him back to the AL on a 2year deal for $8M/per. Piniero couldn't even make it in the BoSox bullpen as a RP let alone as a starter. |
| 25. By: pwhit44 on 01-20-2010 22:03:14 Wheelock- I'm not too high on Pineiro either, and the thought of the M's peppering line drives all over the field off of him is pretty neat for me too. ...But let's see what happens with him this year, because it appears he's a different pitcher than he was a few years ago. Last year may very well have been a fluke, but he spent 32 starts being a groundball machine. 60% GB is a pretty sweet number, and that's a pretty significant change in skills for him. We'll see, but if he can maintain that GB rate, he could very well be a solid pitcher for them. That said, it will be hilarious to see that look on his face with Mariners circling the bases all around him. |
| 26. By: rjfrik on 01-20-2010 22:26:25 I never said we should go all out to sign the guy, in terms of dollars. I said that we should make a hard sell on the guy. I think 8-10 million a year is a good value for Sheets. I think he would be an unbelievable #3 pitcher this year and a solid #2 next year after Lee leaves. If Sheets was added to the team we would/could make a serious playoff run. The offense is set up like the 88 Dodgers, the 89 Twins or the 91 Reds. No sluggers, our best HR output won't top 30 HR's this season. A couple of great hitters at the top with a couple of mediocre hitters in the middle with not so good hitters at the bottom. Great defense and right now good starting pitching. If we add Sheets we go from good starting pitching to great starting pitching, just like those WS championship teams. |
| 27. By: JohnMcD on 01-20-2010 23:23:29 I love reading the comments about the Angels signing Joel Pinero. They are hilarious! |
| 28. By: JohnMcD on 01-20-2010 23:23:59 On MLB trade rumors. |
| 29. By: DRWheelock on 01-21-2010 00:41:21 What's even MORE hilarious? Angels are paying the same EXACT $8M salary for Piniero, as Seattle is paying for Cliff Lee. Wow! What's even more awesome? Their top priority was Lackey, with a fallback plan on trading an awesome package that included Aybar to the Blue Jays for Halladay. All within 2 hours, after Lackey signed with BoSox the public heard that Halladay was going to the Philly's w/Lee going to the M's. That alone was a triple dager to their heart: Losing Lackey 1st, then losing out on Halladay, and then of course Seattle landing Cliff Lee. And now to see the Angels paying $8M for Piniero while Seattle pays the same to Cliff Lee ... has got to cut to the heart of Angel fans. AMAZING JOB Z MAN! |
| 30. By: pwhit44 on 01-21-2010 00:49:08 Yep, it's pretty damn awesome. Really, the M's are getting a huge bargain on Lee. The Angels are pay about the right amount for Pineiro, while we are getting Lee for like less than half of his value. It's not that the Angels did a horrible job signing Pineiro, or that they overpaid him much. It's just that Jack is a bad ass, and Lee was still under contract for a less-than-market salary when we got him. Righteous. |
| 31. By: JohnMcD on 01-21-2010 01:06:11 Wheelock, you should refer it as a quadruple by pass surgery that went horebly wrong because we took Figgins from them so that makes four things they lost out on. Touche on an amazing job by the Z man! |
| 32. By: DRWheelock on 01-21-2010 01:06:15 You do realize that Piniero has only had 1 year since 2004 with an ERA under 4.33 (thats 1 year in the past 6 years), and only 1 year with a double digit Win? Yes that was ONLY in 2009, and in a VERY WEAK NL Central division!!! NO WAY would the Z Man pay $8M/year for 2 years on Piniero! In the AL for BoSox he couldn't even make in the the BoSox bullpen, let alone a SP, and let alone didn't even qualify to clean Otriz's jockstrap. Welcome back to the AL Joel! Hey at least the Angels resigned Vlad and his 1.234 OPS against Pineiro! Oh wait Vlad is over at Texas now in that sandbox, so I wonder how high his OPS can go against Piniero this year. Go checkout Jack Wilson's (Seattle SS) OPS against Piniero...it's even more than Vlad's sitting at 1.250 OPS. And that's included Piniero's 2009 totals too. Just AWESOME! |
| 33. By: JohnMcD on 01-21-2010 01:12:55 Is Pinero going to be there 3 or 4? |
| 34. By: Hammy47 on 01-21-2010 08:14:33 I believe Pineiro would be their #4 at best. Their 5 man rotation includes Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro. They also have Matt Palmer (who showed signs of being good last year) they can sub in the rotation if someone gets hurt. That is a pretty solid starting 5. They don't have that clear "ace" pitcher, but they have the best depth at SP in the AL West. Maybe I am being a homer, but I would rather have the Mariner's rotation. Yes, our 4 and 5 starters are not even close to matching up to the Angels 4 or 5 starters, but we have 2 aces on our staff. Going to be an interesting year! |
| 35. By: Chris Crawford on 01-21-2010 08:41:58 Pineiro will probably start out the year as the fourth starting pitcher, but again, it really doesn't matter. Just a position of when he starts, he'll go every fifth day and if he keeps the ball down with the command he has last year he's pretty good. I would say the chances of him repeating last year are slim and none though.....You just have to have pretty close to flawless command to do what he did last year, and Joel Pineiro does not = flawless command. |
| 36. By: frontstreetfan on 01-21-2010 09:07:10 #23 Jackson I think you might have something with the J. Moyer farewell tour! The M's could offer a free windshield repair promo night along with a Moyer Bobblehead. |
| 37. By: Hammy47 on 01-21-2010 09:31:36 I wouldn't mind the Mariners signing Moyer, if it was a really cheap contract and he didn't mind being a long reliever or occasional spot starter. Having a guy like that on our pitching staff would really help out the young guys, if Moyer was willing to take the young guys under his wing. |
| 38. By: Hammy47 on 01-21-2010 09:45:20 *Sorry, I meant trade for him (i.e. - Phillies picking up contract.) So I read some reports about the Mariners having approximately 10 Million dollars left that they could spend this year. I think that signing Sheets would be a bad deal. I would rather the Mariners keep that money so they could be a lot more flexible around trade deadline time. There are a lot of "ifs" in signing Sheets, and I don't think using our remaining payroll to gamble on him is the smartest thing. |
| 39. By: ARock on 01-21-2010 11:23:15 Hammy, the Mariners have another fund of a few million for mid season moves like this, which isnt part of this budget. Spending the rest of the budget on Sheets and a utility player would not remove their aiblity to make a midseason deal. |
| 40. By: marinerforever on 01-21-2010 11:23:40 What about looking into signing miguel tejada for 5or 6 million on a one or two year deal and moving figgins to second and use lopez to get the pitcher we need |
| 41. By: Edman on 01-21-2010 11:54:29 I'd rather have Lopez. Tejada is past his prime and is probably not any kind of improvement defensively. He certainly doesn't have much power anymore and would not benefit from playing at Safeco. |
| 42. By: slamminghard on 01-21-2010 19:07:29 well here is a crazy thought.. we take the money that several people have talked about giving to sheets and we use it to resign cliff lee. then we look at he assests and prospects we have and maybe work a deal for marlins josh johnson.. pretty good arm and good whip. as long as we can keep rowland. the lopez thing and trading him.. would only be fruitful if it was a adrian gonzalez trade. lopez has a cheap contract and hudson and the others are going to cost more. with the defense pretty set pitching would be the way to go. one last thing. anyone else having problems accessing the pay chart on the top blog? |
| 43. By: maqman on 01-24-2010 10:33:56 "From 2005-2008, Sheets only averaged 150 innings per season. He missed significant time each season, only making more than 30 starts once, in 2008, before his season-ending injury which caused him to miss all of 2009." From FanGraphs by Jack Moore - November 12, 2009. |
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