| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-01-2010 |
The Seattle Mariners very next regular shortstop may very well be prospect Nick Franklin. Franklin is coming off a superb season -- his first full season as a professional -- and has the club planning around his presence in the coming years.
But there's no guarantee that Franklin will be big-league ready by the start of 2012, so the club must start thinking about the position for at least that season. And since Jack Wilson can't stay healthy -- and isn't very good when he does -- and reserve Josh Wilson is a replacement level talent, that search may need to start this winter.
It's not a position clubs tend to mess with too much, meaning, if they get a chance to acquire a quality shortstop, they will, regardless of the presence of a prospect within a few years of the majors. So it's almost as if the Mariners will pretend Franklin does not exist. After all, would it be so bad if the M's were able to acquire a young-ish starting shortstop under club control for three or four seasons? Of course not, it's all about gathering assets, and one great season in the minors does not make a big-league caliber player.
Let's take a look at the candidates
Jack Wilson
Wilson is owed $5 million for 2011, but played just 61 games in 2009 due to injuries -- and, let's be honest, gross ineffectiveness in the batter's box. He's now 33 and clearly not any kind of long-term answer for Seattle. The Mariners could simply stand pat, play Wilson since they're paying him, and hope Franklin has another big year and shows he’s ready sooner than later.
But there's no reason to do so, as such a lack of action cuts down the chances to acquire talent, which is why there's a chance Wilson becomes a pricey backup, or is sent packing with some cash to a club needing a stop-gap. But the M's may need more than a one-year stop-gap.
Bottom Feeders
There are several directions the club could go beyond Wilson that aren't significant upgrades and don't necessarily fit, but Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, Cesar Izturis, Cristian Guzman and, if the Giants decline his option, Edgar Renteria will all be available.
This is what the M's were hoping to avoid when they signed Wilson to a two-year extension, however, and it's unlikely they’d head in this direction at this stage.
Juan Uribe
Uribe will be 32 before next season starts, and is somewhere between merely adequate at shortstop to below average, depending on who you ask and which metric you prefer. But he's on the downside of a decent career, and his just .248/.310/.440, and he's a right-handed batter that certainly doesn’t bode well for success at Safeco Field.
Uribe is also not likely to come on the cheap, despite his poor performance in the playoffs -- .140/ .191/.279 in 13 games. He did play a significant number of games at shortstop this season, but is better off at third base where his lack of range and poor conditioning are much less of a worry. Uribe made $3.25 million in 2010.
Jose Reyes
Reyes is coming off a pedestrian season for his standards, but was primarily healthy and displayed many of the skills that made him a "big name," when it comes to shortstops.
He's every bit as gifted as any shortstop in baseball, if not more so, and if the New York Mets and new GM Sandy Alderson are looking to get some semblance of a fresh start in a new direction, dealing Carlos Beltran and/or Reyes and his $11 million salary in 2011 might make some sense, especially since he'll be a free agent after next season.
The Mets have Ruben Tejada about ready to play every day, and while he's no Reyes, he is capable defensively and could be an average offensive shortstop with continued development. To trade for a player such a Reyes, however, it would require parting with value, and taking on the salary due.
Jimmy Rollins
Rollins is an older version of Reyes; similar recent injury history, but with less chance to bounce back to all-star form, since he's already 32 years old. He's also making just $8.5 million in 2011, making him more affordable for the Philadelphia Phillies than Reyes may be for the Mets.
There's not much chance the Phillies move him this winter -- as Chris Crawford noted in conversation, there'd be major fan backlash, and if you're dealing Rollins you better have a good idea who will take his place at the position and what you're doing with the payroll space.
The Phillies claim they have the payroll flexibility to sign Jayson Werth right now, which tells me that if Rollins -- or Joe Blanton, or even Brad Lidge -- were traded, GM Ruben Amaro might have the room to legitimately pursue Cliff Lee this winter, whether Werth is re-signed or not.
None of the above is likely, and barely even possible, but Rollins, even for one year, would be a nice get for the Mariners. Unfortunately, however, it's just not going to happen.
Stephen Drew
Drew, 28, was rumored to be potentially on the trade block last summer, but it doesn't appear that is necessarily the case right now with new GM Kevin Towers in town. Instead, Arizona is looking into proven veteran free agents to improve the offense, and trading Drew right now might be counterproductive.
He is arbitration eligible for the second time this winter, and figures to make at least $5 million after earning $3.4 in 2010. His price tag isn't prohibitive yet, which probably means the Diamondbacks are going to cling to him barring being blown away with an offer that includes young pitching and outfield help.
Drew is a fit at Safeco offensively, however, as a left-handed hitter who sprays his doubles and triples from the left-center field gap to straight away right, but hits a good portion of his home runs to his pull side.
Drew even holds his own versus left-handed pitching and isn’t a product of Chase Field, as shown by his road splits in 2010. Towers is wise enough to wait out Drew’s pre-prime development, however, so I do not expect a trade until next summer at the earliest, and there will be many suitors once he's put on the market.
J.J. Hardy
Hardy was a trade candidate a year ago before being sent from Milwaukee to Minnesota in exchange for centerfielder Carlos Gomez. Hardy has had one strong year at the plate -- 2008 -- and one other decent season -- 2007 -- sandwiched between what appear to be four grossly disappointing campaigns.
He has, however, remained very solid with the glove throughout, posting positive Ultimate Zone Ratings each year of his career, including a 12.8 UZR/150 this past season.
He's been, at best, a replacement level bat, though, and his offensive strengths aren't likely to play well at Safeco. Still, he'd be a major upgrade for the club as a top 10 shortstop, as long as he stays in the lineup.
The Twins are almost certain to non-tender or trade Hardy rather than pay him as much as $6 million through arbitration. He, too, will be a free agent after next season unless he inks a multi-year deal this winter.
Jason Bartlett
Bartlett, like Hardy, has had but one or two good seasons at the plate -- one really good one in 2009 -- but had always been good defensively until the past two seasons, according to UZR. Bartlett has battled through a few injuries that could explain the decline with the glove, and could even bounce back with the bat to somewhere between his past two seasons.
He works counts, takes a walk and can hit the gaps with some regularity, though Hardy has more raw power and is a better bet to stack up the extra-base hits. Bartlett, however, is likely to be more available than Hardy by being cheaper.
The Rays are in cost-cutting mode, which means they could trade the 31-year-old or be forced to non-tender him and go with Reid Brignac at shortstop in 2011.
And no, it's not nearly as likely that the Rays move Brignac instead, unless he's part of a blockbuster deal that lands them young relief pitching and/or a catcher they can rely on for a few years.
Marco Scutaro/Jed Lowrie
There is a chance the Boston Red Sox trade one of their shortstops, and either one might be ideal for Seattle in 2011 and 2012. Scutaro is guaranteed $5 million in 2011 and his contract comes with a $6 million for 2012. He is, however, 35 years old, which makes him both more likely to be traded, and the riskier of the two players.
Scutaro, from what I can gather from a few games at the Safe and several on TV, is about average defensively and is certainly not likely to put up a big year with the glove as he ages. His approach at the plate and lack of consistent power make him more a reserve talent that is miscast as a starter based on one very good season at the plate and the unreliability of UZR and other defensive metrics.
Lowrie, on the other hand, has yet to put together full seasons that might pose as evidence that he's the long-term answer at short for the Red Sox, but his trends and age do suggest he's capable of continuing his breakthrough.
The fact that he's a switch hitter makes him an attractive target for the Mariners, and there is some pop in his bat. Defensively he's at least adequate despite a lack of ideal athleticism. The Red Sox may much prefer to trade Scutaro, but because he may be more difficult to move, Lowrie could land them a worthy bullpen arm.
And Jose Iglesias, perhaps the club's future at the position, is within a year or two of the majors, which lends GM Theo Epstein and his front office staff the depth to deal one of the two veterans, and ultimately both.
Might a deal swapping Lowrie for either David Aardsma or Brandon League make sense for both clubs? We'll see.
Ian Desmond/Danny Espinosa
It's a longshot that the Washington Nationals and Seattle Mariners could match up on a deal for Desmond or Espinosa, as the pair is probably slated for the middle infield in the nation’s capitol for the next four or five years at least. But both are legit shortstop's; Espinosa, scouts tell me, is the better defender with more upside at the plate. Desmond didn't show well defensively but the scouting eye suggests he can play short, though he may be best suited for second base. He runs well and is just 25 years of age.
Seattle isn't likely to grab a project of any kind, adding to the unlikely chance that either player is a true target.
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Comments
The following 26 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: littlelinny6 on 11-01-2010 23:19:27 I like the suggestion for a League/Aardsma swap for Lowrie. The importance of a marginal win by adding bullpen pieces is much higher to a contender like the Red Sox than a rebuilding team like Seattle. If they were willing to take either one for Lowrie I'd do it in a heartbeat because when you plan on winning 65-70 games in 2011 like the M's--who really cares about the bullpen. |
| 2. By: littlelinny6 on 11-01-2010 23:20:21 This is not to say bullpens are not important, but if you have a chance to get a possible long term position player for a closer that is about to get expensive, you have to take the risk. |
| 3. By: StandinPat on 11-01-2010 23:24:12 I like the idea of swapping Aardsma myself. League, who's better than Aardsma anyway, moves into the closers role and (hopefully) increases his value, and Cortes, who might be better than either of them, gets his feet wet as a 7/8th inning guy. Bartlett is an interesting name that I thought about earlier as well. Very likely to be non-tendered, with a decent chance for a bounce back season. On the other hand, he just very well may done. |
| 4. By: mymrbig on 11-01-2010 23:29:14 I wonder how much the Mets value Ruben Tejada. Seems like a guy that has always flown under the radar to me and its hard to imagine them trading Reyes. I'd put in a call about him to at least see how the Mets value him. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-01-2010 23:48:41 I was told the Mets future likely consists of either a Reyes-Tejada SS/2B tandem or one featuring Tejada at SS and Havens at 2B. |
| 6. By: StandinPat on 11-02-2010 00:02:38 I heard without Minaya the Mets are 46% less likely to make bat shit crazy moves. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-02-2010 00:04:35 You heard wrong. It's actually 96%. :) |
| 8. By: Edman on 11-02-2010 11:26:13 I don't expect the M's to make any moderate move to upgrade at shortstop. Wilson's contract, even though reasonable if he's healthy all year, isn't movable without eating a large chunk of money. With the backfire of the Wilson-Snell and Bradley trades, I don't think Jack is going to be eager to run out and do more bad contract moves. He'd be smart to try to upgrade elsewhere. And, if Franklin next season, you can go shopping for a one year fix next winter. There is no need to be pre-emptive this year, for next season. I'd look at trying to upgrade Josh Wilson. There should be some reasonable help available. I'd rather see them try to find a catcher who can at least hit a little, and guide Moore along. A thirdbaseman comes to mind. But more than anything, they need to decide if Saunders is there future or not. They've been tweeking his swing. My preference would be to spend a little more on an outfielder who can hit, to platoon with Saunders. I'm not ready to give up on him, but his clock is ticking away. |
| 9. By: Edman on 11-02-2010 11:27:43 oops....if Franklin isn't ready next season..... |
| 10. By: Lailoken on 11-02-2010 13:10:07 Edman, there just aren't many other spots to upgrade. C Moore 1B Smoak 2B (Ackley) 3B Figgins RF Ichiro CF DTFT LF Saunders Those are your likely holdovers. Possible upgrades: DH (Bradley) SS (Ja. Wilson) With Moore & Saunders at least you are figuring out if they can play everyday by giving them a chance. Catchers have to split significant time anyway so a decent-hitting backstop to help Moore along would be great but those are in short supply. A righty bat to platoon with Saunders could come cheap. If you don't spend much on a catcher & platoon LF then spending some cash on a SS makes sense. Bradley is a better hitter from the L-side so a righty bat could get some DH time too. Throw a decent 2B stopgap hitter onto the grocery list as well. SS is the one obvious spot where a full-time starter could clearly be brought in as Jack Wilson doesn't offer this ballclub much in the present or future. Tampa could really use some bullpen help as Soriano, Benoit, Balfour, Wheeler (likely declined option), Qualls, Choate, & Shouse are all free agents. The Rays could also be looking at non-tendering Lance Cormier & JP Howell. Howell is coming off surgery on a torn labrum. They'll definitely be in the market for bullpen help. Whew. |
| 11. By: Edman on 11-02-2010 14:03:56 I suspect that Jack is going to work out a deal with Branyon, so that fills your DH/1B needs. However, Jack and Seattle might suprise everyone and go after Victor Martinez. Doubtful, but a switch hitter who can platoon with both Smoak and Moore, and DH isn't all that crazy. It would require the M's to open up their budget, but it fits with building toward a near future. I expect him to catch more infrequently as he ages, but by that time Moore should be ready to catch most games. I know it's a long-shot, but the M's need to also make a few bold statements, along with rebuilding. That's the kind of move that makes a difference, not hoping to get much improvement out of Jason Bartlett. Wilson is a sunk cost and his defense is still revered by Jack. I think they'll try to get a backup with a little more than Josh has to offer, but like him or not, Jack is likely here to stay next season. I'm not sure that intially, that Figgins moves to third. The secondbaseman market it pretty thin. They have a better chance of improving the offense at third. I wouldn't at all be surprised if they tried to sign Austin Kearns to platoon in left. I don't see the M's offense getting enough better by slight improvement a different shortstop. We'll see if Jack can surprise us. |
| 12. By: shortstop9 on 11-02-2010 14:06:47 If we get a SS without some pop then where does it come from.I think every addition SS,DH,LF,2B needs to have some power. Hardy/Lowrie could hit 6-7 in the order and provide some pop at least. |
| 13. By: JD Kickastro on 11-02-2010 14:40:18 Jason, I'm not able to see subscriber content anymore. Help, please. |
| 14. By: maqman on 11-02-2010 14:44:26 I don't think Z is putting a shortstop high on his to-do list and will hope Jack Wilson earns his pay. Josh Wilson could be replaced. I see catcher as a high priority and like Buck as an option, V-Mart isn't coming to Seattle. DH should add power, go to Branyan if he's cheap and every other better option isn't. O-Dog might be worth a look. |
| 15. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-02-2010 15:11:48 I'm with littlelinny on this one: the idea of being able to add a Jed Lowrie for a David Aardsma or Brandon League sounds most appealing. More than just adding to middle-infield depth, it would also give you the flexibility to move Ackley to left field or centerfield if it turns out you have to (or if/when Nick Franklin arrives). If it can be done, I'd do that deal in a heartbeat. Trading Aardsma in particular, you'd have to think we're in an ideal position to do that- like with J.J. Putz a couple seasons ago, we're not a team that needs an early-30s closer- and we have two-three arms that might give the same value as early as 2011. The trade-for-Lowrie scenario makes utter sense to me, if indeed it can be done. |
| 16. By: Edman on 11-02-2010 15:31:18 I'm not sure why Boston would be modivated to trade an inexpensive, switch-hitting shortstop who's still developing. When you can answer that question, you can move on to bigger conclusions. There are a glut of free agent relievers available. Why would Aardsma be more attractive in trade than signing a free agent? The Sox don't have money to go sign one? |
| 17. By: LennonKM on 11-02-2010 15:47:22 I think shortstop should be near the top of our off season to-do list. We can't count on Jack Wilson contributing much next year. When he was a good player he did two things well, make contact and play defense, both of those skills have seen a decline since we traded for him. The trick is to get someone who can help this year and provide value for 2012 and beyond. Lowrie makes perfect sense. He played a fair amount of second in college and even some in the pros. If we traded for him he could start the year at second with Wilson at short. When the inevitable Wilson DL trip occurs or Ackley forces his way onto the big club or Wilson's performance is horrible you can move Lowrie to short giving you a young controllable middle infield that fits Safeco. Theo has said that he plans to improve the bullpen. That being said its unlikely that he wants to pay market prices for relievers . A trade makes sense. Adding a big bat is a great way to improve the offense, but so is adding offense to a position your essentially punting with Jack/Josh Wilson combo. League and a non-core prospect for Lowrie is something Jack should explore. |
| 18. By: csiems on 11-02-2010 15:55:47 Jason or Chris, It looks like Jhonny Peralta could be available. Would you place him with the bottom feeders? Or does he offer more? |
| 19. By: Edman on 11-02-2010 15:59:10 Jack will explore every possible angle, I'm sure. None of us are telling him anything that he hasn't been aware of through his own network of advisors. If anyone thinks that Jeb Lowrie is going to magically make this offense better, that's a pretty tall gamble. And, with Jack's gambles not paying off last year, I'd think he'd be a little gunshy before reaching again. He can't afford continued failure. Fans are gonna make up a bunch of fantasy trades, but try to filter them with "why wouldn't they" instead of "they should".....it has to pass that test. In regard to Boston needing bullpen help, that's on area that the FA market is able to fill, unlike many other positions. It makes more sense to go get a FA while you can bargin with them, since there will be enough competition for the good jobs to keep the salaries down. |
| 20. By: Marco on 11-02-2010 16:09:42 Waiting for Franklin my guess is to pick up a great defensive shortstop, better if Japanese. And, by the way, another catcher. |
| 21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-02-2010 16:17:00 Peralta is a bad defensive SS. As for Boston's bullpen options, sure. But they don't have a ton of money to play with -- they do not want to pay the luxury tax ... EVER. And most 8th or 9th inning arms on the free agent pile will require more annually and probably two-plus guaranteed years. League nor Aardsma will make as much as, say, Brian Fuentes on the open market, or even Jon Rauch. They may be able to get an arm like Balfour for about the cost of League or Aardsma, but not for one year. |
| 22. By: jkcmason on 11-02-2010 16:29:33 Though SS is one of the spots we desperately need to upgrade, I don't think that we should use our biggest trade chip of the offseason to get Lowrie. If it were possible to Use Aardsma to acquire talent that we could ship along with Saunders+ to St Louis, we could desperately use a bat like Colby Rasmus in the middle of our lineup. I would rather have Rasmus and Hardy than Lowrie and Saunders. |
| 23. By: jkcmason on 11-02-2010 16:31:00 I know, I know, I am dreaming. Let me dream though, I am happy in my own little world. |
| 24. By: Blowgun7 on 11-02-2010 16:34:49 Not sniffing Rasum for that package.. How about Gutierrez and Pineda for Rasmus? |
| 25. By: OWHolmes on 11-02-2010 19:50:31 No way will the RS trade Lowrie for Aardsma. Remember, Aardsma was a Red Sox property and Theo traded him away. Jed has essentially had one injury - a broken wrist, and the complications that followed it, including a staph infection which allowed the mono to take hold - and when he has been healthy he has been solid defensively (he set a record for the RS as a rookie for the number of games he played without an error) and he has shown that he has some pop with his bat from both sides, finishing the season with two homers in the last game against the yankees, and with the 4th highest OPS on the team. Iglesias may be Boston's "shortstop of the future" but right now he isn't showing the plate discipline or the power. Until that situation is cleared up, or the Sox have a need for a great positional player, Lowrie isn't going anywhere. Lowrie may get traded but it would be more likely that he would be part of a package for Adrian Gonzales - not David Aardsma. |
| 26. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-02-2010 21:15:19 Oh so I suppose it was foolish for the M's to have taken back Raul Ibanez when he left Kansas City. Just because Aardsma became good when he left Boston, does not mean that he does not hold value to his former club. Hell, you could say that about David Ortiz to the Mariners, and many many more. Stupid statement. I happen to like Michael Saunders, and it began like he was starting to figure things out up at this level. His power seemed to be coming on as well. Hopefully Saunders and Smoak will become what Morneau and Mauer are to Minnesota! LOL! Ok ok, I've drank too much Kool-aid, but a poorer version of those two hitters would be very much welcome on this ballclub. Lowrie would be a nice addition to this team and to build on for the future. David Aardsma's value will probably never be higher than it is right now at this point, which leads me to believe that Z will engineer another trade as he did with Putz. Hopefully some hitters will come along over in a deal instead of just some gloves. Does anybody including Jason have any idea what the time frame might be on Rich Poythress possibly reaching the show at his current pace of development? That kid can really rake the ball and would be awesome as a DH/1B on this club. A rotation of Hernandez, Vargas, Fister, Pineda seems to be a lock, provided that Michael can pick up where he left off. I've heard some rumblings from other sites that Jamie Moyer would be welcome back here with open arms. I love Jamie Moyer, but I truly think his time has passed and it's time to try and develop some of the younger kids. I liked what I saw out of French and Pauley last year. They showed a couple really nice outings. Let's see how they do after the scouting reports come out. If Aardsma is dealt, then League is the closer with Cortes, Rowland-Smith, Shawn Kelly, Garrett Olson, Sean White, and possibly Anthony Vavaro or maybe even Maricio Robles. Bring us some bats Z!! Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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