Prospect Insider - The Prospects

The Prospects

By Jason A. Churchill

By 12-11-2008

The Seattle Mariners acquired seven players in a three-way deal that sent right-handers J.J. Putz and Sean Green, and center fielder Jeremy Reed to the New York Mets, and second baseman Luis Valbuena to the Cleveland Indians.

Among the seven are four minor leaguers; first baseman Mike Carp, left-hander Jason Vargas, right-hander Maikel Cleto and outfielder Ezequiel Carrera.

Carp, 22, is a left-handed hitter with average power and solid on-base skills. He makes good, consistent contact with a line-drive swing and is an average defender at first.

Carp's pull power is slightly above-average, however, which bodes well for his future at Safeco Field. He'll likely start the 2009 season at Triple-A Tacoma with a good chance to see time in Seattle very early in the season, depending on what else Jack Zduriencik has in mind this winter.

Vargas isn't technically a prospect, due to his 169 1/3 innings in the big leagues with Florida and the Mets.

The 25-year-old southpaw employs a low-90s fastball that tops out at 94, and an above-average slider that is tough on left-handed bats. Vargas missed all of 2008 after having surgery on his left hip, but returned to throw 25 2/3 solid frames in the Arizona Fall League.

He's started 26 of his 41 games in the majors, but is better suited to work out of the bullpen where he's held those left-handed hitters to a .212 average and .646 OPS in his short career.

A Long Beach State product by way of Seattle, Vargas is expected to be 100 percent and ready for spring training.

Carrera is a 21-year-old toolsy outfielder who hit .263/.344/.393 in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League last season. Signed out of Venezuela in 2005, the left-handed hitter stands 5-11 and weighs in at 180 pounds, suggesting he might be able to run and defend - and he can.

An above-average center fielder, Carrera's future will ride on whether he can develop enough power to serve him in the big leagues. Twelve of his 30 extra-base hits in 2008 were triples, and he's had problems pulling the ball, which is where most of his power is.

He makes decent contact and draws enough walks, but more progress is necessary if he's to enjoy success in the upper minors. On the bases, he's already an average base stealer in terms of reads and technique, and his raw speed grades as well above-average.

Carrera is likely to start 2009 in Double-A West Tennessee, where he may play all three outfield spots, depending on where Greg Halman begins his 2009 campaign.

Cleto, pictured above, might be the hidden gem in this trade, though Carp and Franklin Gutierrez are garnering most of the attention. The Dominican right-hander signed in 2006 and spent last season in the FSL, where his numbers may mislead some to believe he's just another arm.

But he won't be 20 until May and at 6-3 and 220 pounds is projectable. His delivery is clean, yet unrefined and one scout called him a live arm, but raw.

"He was all over the place in terms of velocity, but (there were) a number of 92s and 93s. He started once and pitched out of the bullpen once. He looked like a prospect in both roles."

His fastball has solid sink and he stays on top of it well, particularly for a teenager. Cleto could repeat Advanced-A and join the likes of Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez, Michael Pineda and Nathan Adcock in High Desert to start 2009.

All three will appear in the 2009 Prospect Insider Handbook with Carp a top 10'er and Cleto likely knocking on that door.

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Comments
The following 35 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: DAMellen on 12-11-2008 01:37:37
So then your overall feeling is good trade? My overall feeling is good trade.

2. By: baseball on 12-11-2008 01:37:52
Rotoworld.com posted something very interesting in their analysis of the deal:

"The Mets will be praised for this, and they might even deserve it. However, Putz never did recover his best stuff after last season's elbow problems, and it's an open question of how he got his best stuff in the first place."

As I said when the news of this trade started coming down the pike, the only way this trade makes sense for the Mariners is if they know something about Putz that no one else knows, and decided to cash him in as quickly as possible for whatever they could get, or else risk the X factor becoming known and watch his value disappear...

Otherwise, this trade comes off as nothing but a total disaster for the Mariners, as with the exception of Carp, they'll probably have nothing to show for this deal in 2 years. It almost seems like Bill Bavasi is still in charge. I'm left to wonder if the M's front office coffee is spiked with something that renders all the executives stupid.

3. By: Blowgun7 on 12-11-2008 01:49:58
I really like Carp and Cleto. Mets fans seem to think both guys have some good potential, particularly Carp since he's much more advanced.

If Gutierrez can just pick it up a little bit with the bat (a big if), this would be a very nice haul IMO

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-11-2008 01:52:12
I'm still lukewarm on the trade, but I certainly lean more toward good than anything.

No way this can be deemed negative in any sense.

5. By: Blowgun7 on 12-11-2008 01:56:56
Jason does Cleto look more like a reliever to you, or starter?

You talk to any scouts yet about the haul the M's got? I know the mainstream media and casual M's fans think we got hosed, but alot of the saber folks around the net realize we got alot of good value in the deal.

You think Gutierrez can win a gold glove in CF?

6. By: safecochatter on 12-11-2008 02:43:05
this trade really can't be evaluated fairly for a while.
some of these prospects are too young.
and there is a couple of other points to consider also.
Chavez and Heilman are probably just stop gaps that will be traded to other teams at some point.
ya gotta remember jack aint done.
and m's just dumped salary too. jj gets 5.5 this year alone and nobody knows if it's 2007 jj or 2008 jj.

and who cares if espn says mets won hands down.
they are so east coast biased that their opinion is worthless..

7. By: Uncle Al on 12-11-2008 03:59:23
Does anyone know how much money Heilman is going to cost the M's for the 2009 season? It's $2.05M for Chavez and around $400K for Gutierrez. It may not be a big deal but this is also going to allow the M's to resign Dickey for very little money. It's also pretty obvious that Capt. Z isn't finished yet as they still need a big LH bat. We've been saying this for 5 years but we'll actually get one this year and still have a lot of expensive pitching to trade with. As much as I dislike the idea of Ken Griffey coming here, he might actually make some sense for a year or two at DH and as a back up Of'er if we can't afford anything better. I still think we're going to see a trade with Milwaukee with some of that expensive pitching we don't need. We didn't get screwed on this trade and filled some holes for this coming year and got a few pieces that could help us by the following year. This is going to fit right in with a big draft next summer and with whatever Engel gets us from the International market.

8. By: 3rdWatch on 12-11-2008 12:33:36
Reegie Corona seems to have just as good if not better minor league track record as Luis Valbuena. He has been voted as an all-star at his position and reportedly can really handle the leather. I like his numbers last year at the plate, but will he have enough "O" and "D" to stick for the year. My guess is yes. I think Jack Z sees him as the same type of player as Valbuena and eases the harsh remarks about trading a back up middle infielder.

My next guess is that Lopez might be dangled for an upgrade in the power department. Could open back up the doors with Florida for a deal involving Hermida. I'm not a big Hermida fan but he his young and has a lot of power potential. This is a kid that was really pushed in the minors and did well. Injuries have kept him from playing a full season and he has not been able to show all of his natural athletic talents.

9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-11-2008 12:48:05
Corona is more of a backup long term, but he does get on base and can defend.

I just got more info from the Mets on Cleto... more often than not, he sat in the mid-90s, touching 97-98.

They thought he was going to end up at least a good setupman.

He doesn't get many whiffs because his secondary stuff isn't there yet.

10. By: huhwhat on 12-11-2008 12:51:02
I kind of agree with what's being said over at USSmariner, Corona seems more of a Bloomquist type player than a prospect like Valbuena. Just my opinion, I like the AAA round selection though, don't know if he can step in and replace Sean Green but seems to be of the same mold.

11. By: bakomariner on 12-11-2008 13:15:42
Jason, when does the new handbook come out? I'm really looking forward even more now with these new kids...

12. By: StandinPat on 12-11-2008 13:32:56
The thing that kills me about this trade is that, if the Indians only received Smith and Valbuena for Gutierrez, then couldnt a Green and Valbuena package possible worked as well? And if so, does Putz and Reed for Heilman, Chavez, Carp and the three spects excite you at all?

Seems to me that there might have been an opportunity to swing the trade for Gutierrez without using Putz, instead flipping him for Joyce, woulda had to been done a little sooner though. At this stage in the game I was just looking a little bit more for MLB ready talent, rather than a pool of young guys.

13. By: Jerry on 12-11-2008 15:06:43
Gotta love the pickup of Jose Lugo.

He is a real interesting arm. I hope he sticks with the team. We could afford to hold onto a power lefty in the back of the rotation.

14. By: rotoenquire on 12-11-2008 15:54:53
Beltre just added the Twins to his acceptable trade teams. That tells me somethign is commen. Also with Chavez and Branyan added don't we have a glut in the OF all a sudden..could Balentine be on the way out with somethign to add a veteran or younger guys with upswing? And we still have a couple extra pitchers and LAD needs SP's could somethign be happening there as well....

15. By: mcgillicutty on 12-11-2008 17:06:08
Didn't Beltre add the Twins to his no trade list?

Branyan is going to be playing 1B so the only OFers the M's have are Ichiro, Gutierrez, Balentien, and Chavez.

16. By: rightwingrick on 12-11-2008 17:18:46
Some top-of-the-head (and likely to be proven wrong) thoughts and predictios:

1. I like the trade, as much as I dislike losing JJ. We get some immediate, much-needed OF defense,a couple of sleeper pitchers and some nice minor league possibilities. Most of all, I like the symbolic nature of the trade, and the way it was made. "We are changing, we know the things we want...defense, speed, potential...and we are going after it, no lollygagging". There was also obvious attention to other team's minor league systems.

2. Prediction: Jason Vargas will break into the rotation. RR Smith and Heilman will battle for the final spot. The "loser" will go to the bullpen as closer or #2 to Batista, unless the M's make another move.

3. Rotation: Hernandez, Bedard, Morrow, Vargas, RR Smith/Heilman.

Pen: Batista, RR Smith/Heilman, Lowe, Jimanez, Corcoran, Lugo, Messenger

4. Washburn and Silva? Who knows? Silva needs to lose 30 pounds, and that's not going to happen.

5. Ken Griffey will be signed as DH and platoon in LF on ocassion.

6. Lineup:
C Clement, .245, 15 HR, .325 OBP
1B Branyan/M. Morse platoon .260, 25 HR, .335 OBP
2B Lopez .295, 20 HR, .325 OBP
3B Beltre .290, 25 HR, .330 OBP
SS Betancourt .290, 10 HR, .320 OBP
RF Ichiro .310, 10 HR, .355 OBP, 45 SB
CF Gutierrez .260, 10 HR, .335 OBP, 25 SB
LF Chavez .255, 5 HR, .330 OBP
DH Griffey .260, 25 HR, .345 OBP

7. We will score more runs. We will give up fewer runs. The pen will blow several games. The M's win 82 games.

17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-11-2008 17:32:54
You forget, rick, that Silva is still here, and very, very unlikely to be traded.

So if Felix, Bedard, Silva and Morrow are in the rotation, RRS and Heilman may fight it out.

But it's probably going to be RRS' spot to lose.

18. By: pwhit44 on 12-11-2008 17:41:15
Jason,

Is Trevor Hoffman toast? I don't hear a lot of interest in him. Would he be an interesting closer for a year or two?

I like where the roster is going. It is a huge, huge relief to me that we have someone like Gutierrez in CF now. Maybe it isn't a big deal, but it is certainly a settling feeling to have CF and RF locked down.

If he'd come back for one year, I like Raul at DH and Milton Bradley in LF.

I'm just glad there is a logical plan developing.

19. By: pwhit44 on 12-11-2008 17:44:05
Also, seeing that there is currently no power in the outfield, is Beltre safe? Losing both Ibanez and Beltre would seem to really kill the offense.

20. By: marinerdan on 12-11-2008 18:12:50
Jason,
What does the future look like now? Assuming halman progesses on schedule, we are looking at an OF of Halman, Gut, Ichiro, with Wlad moving to DH, Carp at 1B and Clement at C, maybe middle of 2010 with Truinfel knocking on the door. Does this trade bring contention readiness any closer than 2011? Also, what are the chances that Heilman has a great rebound year and turns into a grade A free agent?

21. By: Slack on 12-11-2008 18:55:50
Jason,
Do you think Vargas and Cleto long term will stick as starters or do you think they are more likely to be relievers?
What are Cleto's secondary pitches?

22. By: Slack on 12-11-2008 19:36:27
I just checked the report on Cleto at BA. They had his velocity at 91-98. That is all over the place!

23. By: rightwingrick on 12-11-2008 21:18:11
Jason,
Agreed, the starting spot is RR Smith's to lose; I just think Heilman will be given a shot, and may make it stick. And honestly, I think RR Smith is such a bulldog competitor, and a team-oriented guy, that HE may end up closing.

As for Silva/Washburn, Washburn is likely to be gone between now and the start of the season for a nice lower-level couple of prospects, in particular if it looks like he has life in Spring Training. Z is a "build from the bottom" guy, and I'm sure they are scouring minor league rosters right now. Silva? Maybe he'll show enough to take Messenger's place and work his way back to respectability.

Anyway, the new GM has given us something to talk about. He's got guts, trading JJ.

24. By: Slurve on 12-11-2008 21:41:11
RR-S as a closer would be weird but that slow 60MPH curveball from hell might do some damage.

25. By: VanillaGorilla on 12-11-2008 21:51:41
How long is Gutierrez under club control for? for that matter heilman as well?

26. By: Walrus on 12-11-2008 22:52:24
So since CC is in NY now, and Sheets may be leaving as well...which pitchers are we going to send to Milwaukie?
I'm thinking Washburn, Heileman and possibly even Feierabend.
But is that enough to get Weeks or Hardy? I hope so.

27. By: Replacement Level Blogger on 12-12-2008 04:15:29
With the amount of closers still on the market and the M's without a "proven" closer, would it seem odd for them to go after one?

Where can most teams get the most value cheaply in trade? that's right...the Closer spot! I would look for Z to sign a guy for a year or two and flip him for more prospects.

On the trade, if it breaks down to Green/Valbuena for Gutierrez and Putz/Reed for Chavez/Carp/Vargas/Cleto/Carrera then why are we complaining again? Putz may have no value, Valbuena isnt better than what Lopez could be, Reed is a decent glove but is a 4th OFer and Grren is an overworked reliever. there is a lot of potential here for something good.

All in all, decent trade though not a blockbuster...yet. Look for the dominos!

28. By: Replacement Level Blogger on 12-12-2008 04:17:04
Closers return a lot of value in trade...I mean. Pick one up and flip him for prospects.

29. By: Uncle Al on 12-12-2008 08:13:48
Jason
Doesn't this Putz trade and Rule 5 draft now make Hulett, LaHair, Morse, and Burke pretty much useless being on the 40 man roster?

30. By: DobberSr on 12-12-2008 08:46:36
Jimenez started and went 5 scoreless for Lara in the VWL on Wednesday. Where do you see him in the scheme of things in 2009. He seems to have the qualities of a starter.
Raul just signed with the Phillies for 3 years.

31. By: FatBat on 12-12-2008 13:15:45
The Mariners have a lot of pieces now to make some bigger trade happen. I see Heilman more of a Starter in the National league. His value is as a Starter. I heard that Z has already recieved calls on Heilmans availablity...I think he will end up being used to net more offense. I think the teams we should all be looking at here are....Astros, Brewers and Twins. We got a decent pull for Putz but we are still missing a impact player that can make up for Ibanez. Somethings got to give. If Z's reading this Please, now more Utility guy's! we are set with Back-ups. Get us someone not alive when bread was invented would be nice.

32. By: FatBat on 12-12-2008 13:29:54
Any body think a Prince Fielder pull wouldnt round out the team?

33. By: rightwingrick on 12-13-2008 10:50:58
Regarding Fielder, I think Z already thinks he's taken care of 1B for the next year or two, with an "under the radar" signing of Russell Branyan (with Mike Morse as a platoon guy who hits left handers very well). I think he sees Branyan as a 25-30 homer guy in Safeco (with several of them bouncing high off the Hit It Here Cafe windows).

It's also clear he intends to have a very strong outfield defense, and that he places some priority on speed.

I think his next move, now that Ibanez has committed to Philly, is to fill the DH spot with someone who might also platoon in LF in spots, and who brings power potential...a LH bat who will also be a short-term one-or-two year sign while other guys (like Clement, Balentein, Saunders) get their feet wet.

34. By: sexymarinersfan on 12-15-2008 06:48:02
J-Z has said that he's still looking for more offensive production. I'm willing to bet the farm that he's looking for an offensive weapon in left field, whether it come by trade or via through free agency.

Clement will be on this team and split time with Kenji at catcher and see some time at the DH spot when he's not behind the plate. Endy Chavez will most likely serve the role as the 4th outfielder. Which makes Balentein's situation up in the air. He's going to have to come in to Spring Training and win a job. He's gonna be going up against Morse who blew exhibtion ball away last year! Branyan and Shelton will battle it out for first base with Russ being the most likely choice. Shelton's bat could possibly be used off the bench, but we'll have to wait and see. I saw him play down here in Texas and was not that impressed. I kept hoping that some of his Detorit days would shine through, but they never did. I believe Carp is the 1B of the futue. As far as the bullpen goes, who knows right now. Lugo could be a closer in the minors. Corcoran, Lowe and Jimenez will most likely be locks. Which leaves 2-3 spots open. Wakamatsu and his staff will have a lot of talent evaluating to process this offseason.

35. By: AvidBaseballFan on 07-20-2009 03:02:37
Wow, what a difference 7 months makes... Looks like the Mariners won the sh*t out of this trade... Even with Endy injured, Gutierrez is already one of the best CF in the game. Carp impressed during his cup of coffee and looks like our future at 1B or DH, depending on his glove. Cleto and Carrera seem to have good upside. Olson has pitched well enough to be trade bait and very similar to Washburn's first three years in Seattle. Cedeno has been tollerable because of his glove, but his bat is HORRIBLE. Vargas has been nothing short of awesome. To get two great prospects and 6 players that have all helped the team in some way from a trade of a couple crap relievers, a super utility infielder with a left-handed bat, and a 4th OF. Amazing job Jack Z, now let's fix our holes!

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