Prospect Insider - The Pujols Paradigm

The Pujols Paradigm

By Adam H. Wong

By 11-08-2011

The Hot Stove League begun its season and the biggest free agent of all is St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols. Prospect Insider's Adam H. Wong wonders aloud what the impact might be should Pujols do the unthinkable. No, not leave St. Louis, but take a rather enormously discounted contract.

All you need for the Hot Stove action is here:
Big thanks to Bryan Henken -- @bhenken08 -- for his time and energy in putting together the free agent charts.

Important Dates and Deadlines

The M's payroll situation

Links to free agents by position

Association is a funny thing. Many of us have seen historic moments in baseball; The Bill Buckner error in 1986. The Joe Carter walk-off home run in 1993. The 2001 season. Dave Niehaus. For the few who are privileged enough to participate in said action, they get to live those historic moments. The 2011 World Series gave us a glimpse into history, as one player joined an elite group.

Babe Ruth. Reggie Jackson.

Albert Pujols.

Although Pujols's complete World Series performance was less than stellar, he cemented himself into the annals of baseball history during Game 3. His regular-season numbers were down a bit, but a .299/.366/.541 is more-than respectable, and he was the National League's best hitter the final three-plus months. He leads active players with a career .328 batting average, .617 slugging percentage and a 170 OPS+.

In other words, he's still great.

Pujols, a free agent this winter, will command the market with an iron fist this winter because of that prolific career, because of what he did in Game 3 and, well, because he's Albert Pujols. It's expected that he'll leverage anywhere from eight to 10 years at $25-30 million per season.

Here's what I want to know, however:

What happens if Pujols takes the "hometown discount"? What if he passes on breaking the bank so he can return to St. Louis where it all began, where it all happened, and give the organization a better chance?

For example: What if Pujols accepts a six or seven-year deal worth $100-125 million?

Market Value
The first thing to examine is how much of an effect Pujols making a different kind of history and taking $50-75 million less -- or as much as $10-12 million less per season -- would have on free agency in general, and how players are valued.

Left-hander CC Sabathia just signed an extension to the largest contract already awarded to a pitcher in baseball history. He set a precedent. Many thought he would nab Cliff Lee numbers, and he did, but he nudged out Lee's current contract by a mere $2 million. That is to say, however, that Lee's contract started in 2011 and extends through 2015, while the contract Sabathia just signed is an extension that adds one-year and $30 million to his existing seven-year, $161 million deal. In essence, Sabathia signed a five-year, $122 million contract at age 31, while Cliff lee signed a five-year, $120 million contract at age 32.

At first glance, a one-year separation may not seem like much. One year separated Sabathia's journey from his last year in Cleveland to his year in Milwaukee, ending with free agency and signing with New York. What would have happened if Sabathia had another year on his contract while in Milwaukee? Everything changes. What if Cleveland offered Lee a four-year extension rather than a three-year extension before he made his roundtrip through Philadelphia, Seattle and Texas? Age affects what type of contract is offered and when it is offered.

A pitcher's health will always be fickle, and treated as such. Other than the arm injury this year, the fact that Pujols is a position player with no concerning history of injury bodes well for his future. His body won't go through the taxing burden that a big-league hurler goes through. The problem is, at age 31, most position players start the decline phase of their career.

Currently, Alex Rodriguez is the epitome of that situation. He signed his 10-year, $275 million contract after his MVP winning year in 2007, and since then he hasn't returned to his award-winning form. In '07, Rodriguez led the majors with 54 home runs and a .645 slugging percentage. The years in between then and now weren't throw away years -- his slash line during that span is .284/.375/.521 -- but they just don't match up to the caliber of his last great season four years back. It's probably safe to say that his performance since doesn't warrant the $27.5 million-a-year contract.

Pujols accepting another seven-year contract at $14 million per season, which is the pact he just completed, would serve as a terraformation of the landscape of contract negotiations. Although Rodriguez's deal is front loaded, in that he'll make $29 million in 2012 and the number decreases steadily until 2017, the Yankees are still paying $20 million in 2017 to a 41-year-old player who will likely be a DH. That's more than twice what Vladimir Guerrero made this year, and more than twenty times what Hideki Matsui earned from the Oakland Athletics.

Decline is an inevitable part of a professional athlete's career. Rodriguez's contract structure acknowledges that, but it's still a ridiculous amount of money for a player on the decline. If Pujols were to shock the world and go out of his way to accept far less than market value, it not only would affirm that expected player decline is real, it shows a willingness on his part to sacrifice his financial opportunities for payroll alleviation and a better chance to win in St. Louis.

Player Perspective
Such a move would be classy. Not only would it stir up a cavalcade of controversy among beat writers and analysts, but other players would take notice, too. Achieving fair market value is the status quo of free agency. The logic is circular: Prince Fielder has put up numbers somewhat-comparable to Pujols and he's younger, so he deserves that type of contract; the numbers Pujols put up eclipse Howard's and he has a better health history, so Pujols deserves more than Howard; Howard deserves his contract because his numbers are comparable to Rodriguez's. A hometown discount would break this cycle.

Capitalism is the current that flows through the veins of society. Money motivates people, and people seek it out regularly. A move like this sends a message that money doesn't have to be the catalyst that governs the decisions of the professional athlete. Jered Weaver comes to mind when thinking about professional baseball players who've recently bucked this trend. Weaver could have waited it out, hit the open market and exceeded $100 million in guaranteed money.

Ironically, Scott Boras is his agent, and Boras is known for syphoning as much life out of ball clubs as he's legally allowed. Boras, the agent who negotiated a four-year, $60 million contract for the then 36-year old Derek Lowe ... Boras, the agent who convinced the San Francisco Giants to pay Zito that unforgiving contract ... Boras, the agent who helped ink the first absurd Rodriguez deal and was cast aside while A-ROD took his example and got an even better one four years ago.

Weaver took the hometown discount and some have heralded him as a sports hero for doing so. In an era where the dollar holds more value than loyalty, it's unexpected, and really, it's difficult to blame them. Rodriguez left Boras this year to be represented by Dan Lazano, Pujols's agent. Carlos Beltran also left Boras to be represented by Lazano.
Maybe athletes are starting to figure it out. Obviously there's more to being a professional ballplayer than just the money: the influence on their community and charity work are a few examples. This could be the beginning of athletes fighting against what our economy encourages. Pujols would be a sterling example of how the measure of someone's value isn't monetary wealth.

The Union
The idea demands a quick discussion on the likelihood that any star player would ever forego so much money. Lee didn't pass up $75-100 million to go to Philadelphia. Pujols, in this scenario, would be doing just that. The players union would cry foul, of course, so the chances Pujols and his agent would even consider such a move is less than zero. If the pair, player and agent, decided to set a wondrous example for the league, its players and the youth that idolizes them, however, they have that power.

Ultimately, the MLBPA can only "pressure" the player to take the most money. That pressure, though, is strong, and Pujols and his agent may feel an obligation to at least set the market for Fielder and future star sluggers, rather than setting it back 10 years.

Legacy
It's clear that Pujols is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The numbers he's put up during his career already will allow him to coast into Cooperstown. But are athletes remembered for what year they were inducted into the Hall of Fame? Ty Cobb was known for being quite the jerk on and off the field. Babe Ruth is remembered as a slugger, a drinker and womanizer. The Ryan Express is a nickname understood by all baseball fans. Cal Ripken, Jr. is the Ironman. Ken Griffey, Jr. will be remembered for his swing, his style and of course, his smile.

Pujols could choose to leave behind a legacy of historic selflessness, along with his greatness on the field. The Pujols Family Foundation, his support in the community and his infectious attitude are intertwined with the history of St. Louis. There's something to be said about the athlete prerogative.

On one hand, a player like Pujols drives the economy of baseball. His likeness is sold through advertising and sponsorship. His contributions on the field helped the Cardinals win the World Series -- twice. The fact that the Cardinals have been competitive for the last six years means that they've had TV contracts and sold merchandise and tickets. Restaurants and bars around Busch Stadium owe a great deal of business to the bevy of fans that flock to see the Red Birds play.

On the other hand, it's the successful superstars whose faces are associated with the franchise. Since Ichiro Suzuki brings to mind only one team, it's logical the Seattle Mariners should award him a justifiable financial sum because of the revenue his likeness has brought to the city.

It's been said that a player like Pujols "owes" something to the city of St. Louis, but it's his success and personality, to a great extent, that have bolstered the economy of the city.

If Pujols were to take a minimalist approach to signing a contract, his legacy would be remembered forever for more than just home runs and World Series titles. It may completely shift the paradigm of how contracts are negotiated and how future star players approach their careers. He is already associated with legends, but a move like this would be legendary.

Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.

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Comments
The following 12 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1.  By: maqman on 11-08-2011 13:44:27
He turned down 9 years and $200MM before the season started, if the Cards don't want to pay more he can probably get it elsewhere. I don't see him worrying about saving his wealthy owner $100MM or so. I just don't see him joining the occupy movement. Too bad.

2.  By: jd7979 on 11-08-2011 18:17:57
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

3.  By: Edman on 11-08-2011 18:24:52
jd?

I assume it refers to Jack Daniels, which apparently has taken control of your brain and replaced brain cells with troll DNA.

4.  By: jd7979 on 11-08-2011 22:30:16
Actually buddy I just think that the concept of a superstar athlete turning down $100 million is laughable and didn't need more of a response. But you're right, I must be drunk to have that reaction.

5.  By: Edman on 11-09-2011 00:24:49
It would have been nice had you actually explained what your reaction was about. It could have been several things.

6.  By: masonb on 11-09-2011 10:17:06
LOL at Edman insintuating another poster is trolling...

Pot meet Kettle

7.  By: vandal08 on 11-09-2011 11:24:23
No kidding, I didn't realize Edman is a moderator on this forum...

8.  By: rjfrik on 11-09-2011 12:08:42
Uh Oh. Time to start a new topic before this thread becomes another one of "those" threads. I'm actually surprised I got this entry in before Ed's response.

9.  By: Edman on 11-09-2011 16:50:46
I do not troll. Everything I post has a point. You may not agree with it, but that's not my problem.

10.  By: Edman on 11-09-2011 16:52:12
BTW, you might ask magman how he felt about that response. He might disagree with you that it wasn't trolling.

11.  By: jd7979 on 11-09-2011 20:38:19
Edman, magman's post just reenforces my point. Also, I have been a member of Prospect Insider from the moment Jason started charging us the piddly amount that he does, (I would pay more), and I read the comments in the posts every day although I seldom post myself. By doing this, Edman, I know that you have some BS comment in nearly each and every story that is posted. You my friend are the dictionary definition of the word troll. Back to baseball opinions please

12.  By: nighthawk180 on 11-09-2011 23:24:43
Now guys come on down from your high horses. If anything the post saying hahahahahahahahhaha definitely needed a little more then just that. Having read the article myself then seeing that post made me wonder what it ment myself.

On a further note weather or not Edman is a "troll" (which is thrown around way to loosely in this instance) or not is beside the point. If anything all posts besides the first one were either "troll" like or fueling the flames so to speak. Edman had a right to wonder what was the meaning of post 2. Could he have worded it differently yes, but to attack him is a whole other thing that should not have happened.

If you want to play the i know jason card take in point ive been following jason for about 10 years now. Back before he had prospectinsider.com and we were blogging it up on insidethepark.com. He went by the name DiamondGenius if i remember correctly but besides the point it really doesn't matter who knows him longer but Edman has always had a argument that he feels is worth having for a reason. I dont always agree with it but it doesnt make it any less creditable.

Me and Edman have had our own run in's in the past but I like to listen to what he has to say. By no means is he a troll. In my book a troll is someone who starts stuff without a reason to get a rise out of others. That's not what I saw here. It definitely could have been worded differently but so could all of the other post here too.

My .02
Nighthawk180

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